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DraftKings Showdown

Week 14 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Rams at Cards

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $15,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Kyler Murray (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: Matthew Stafford (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins(FD $12,500, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #3: Sony Michel (FD $12,000, DK $10,800)

DK Value Play: Chase Edmonds (FD $10,000, DK $6,900)

Cooper Kupp edges out Kyler Murray as the chalk play at CPT for Monday night, but either makes for a high-upside play with almost unlimited scoring potential. Kupp is the highest-scoring fantasy WR this season, averaging over 27 DK points per game, and Murray posted 30.82 DK points in last week’s return at Chicago. Getting both in your lineup will be difficult this week, but it can be done, especially if we can find another value play to plug in at CPT.

Rams notes: I won’t necessarily prioritize Matthew Stafford tonight, but I have plenty of interest in Van Jefferson and Sony Michel, and to a lesser degree, Odell Beckham, Jr. Of course, we’re making the assumption that Darrell Henderson won’t clear COVID protocols in time for the game, so I’ve left him off my list of targets. Tyler Higbee is a risk-reward option but has been a steady contributor to the offense this season aside from weeks 2 and 12, and he’s a solid value at $5K in a contest that’s missing any viable flex options under $2K.

Cards notes: DeAndre Hopkins is no longer the best WR in football, but he’s still a huge part of the Cards red zone offense and has a 20-25 point ceiling. Chase Edmonds is eligible to return from IR tonight, and the Cards have been playing it pretty close to the vest if they intend on activating him for this contest. They are well within their rights not to disclose whether or not he’s been practicing since he’s currently on IR, but if he suits up, he could be a big-time value play on a team that likes to run the ball and will utilize his smarts and skills to do anything that’s asked of him. We’ll have to stay tuned to the pre-game reports before deciding if we have any exposure, and how much. If he sits this out, James Conner should get a huge workload. A.J. Green had just one catch last week and could be a sneaky flex play at just $4,800, and as usual, Christian Kirk is a boom-or-bust type with huge upside and a terribly low floor. The same can probably be said for TE Zach Ertz.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 14 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Cooper Kupp
Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford
DeAndre Hopkins
Sony Michel
James Conner
Van Jefferson
Chase Edmonds (if active)
Tyler Higbee
A.J. Green
Odell Beckham, Jr.
Christian Kirk
Zach Ertz
Matt Prater
Matt Gay
Rams DST
Cards DST
Eno Benjamin (if Edmonds inactive)
Rondale Moore
Mehki Sargent
Ben Skowronek
Demetrius Harris
Kendall Blanton

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 14 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Steelers at Vikings

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 14 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Jefferson (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Najee Harris (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Pivot (Steelers): Ben Roethlisberger (FD $15,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Diontae Johnson (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Chase Claypool (FD $10,000, DK $11,100)

Contrarian #3 (DK only): Steelers DST (DK $6,300)

A couple of weeks ago the outlook for this matchup may have been a lot different, but in that time, Dalvin Cook was injured (but should return for this game), the Steelers bounced back in a huge way and the Vikings lost to the Lions — the first win for Detroit in the 2021 season. With the Steelers defense around full strength and tied for the fourth-lowest red-zone conversion rate in the NFL and Adam Thielen out for this one, I’m eliminating Kirk Cousins from the majority of my builds and focusing on the Steelers and Justin Jefferson, who will probably end up being the chalk at CPT with Cook’s shoulder somewhat of a question mark.

Steelers notes: Ben Roethlisberger could have enormous value against a banged-up Vikings defense, and he’s got a near-full complement of weapons (minus JuJu Smith-Schuster, of course). I’m inclined to stack up Roethisberger at CPT in Steelers-heavy builds with Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson, though it’s a good bounceback spot for Najee Harris, who had his most effective stretch between weeks 3-8 but has slowed down a bit in his rookie season. Both Freiermuth and Chase Claypool offer big-time value given their upsides, though Claypool has been relatively quiet in 2021 with just one TD.

Vikings notes: Jefferson and ook should pace the offense tonight, but we can mix in some shares of Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn, both of whom have some aditional value with Thielen out. Since Cook is expected to play, we can probably eliminate Alexander Mattison from the majority of our builds, though I’m not opposed to getting some shares in case Cook is limited or takes a big hit and is forced to leave the game. I have much less interest in the Vikings DST but will have some shares of kicker Greg Joseph considering how the Steelers tend to stall drives in the red zone.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 14 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Justin Jefferson
Ben Roethlisberger
Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Dalvin Cook
Kirk Cousins
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Conklin
Chase Claypool
Steelers DST
Greg Joseph
K.J. Osborn
Chris Boswell
Alexander Mattison
James Washington
Vikings DST
Ray-Ray McCloud
Benny Snell, Jr.
Dede Westbrook
Zach Gentry

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 14 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Patriots at Bills

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 13 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #1: Damien Harris (FD $12,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (FD $10,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Mac Jones (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

DK Value Play: Devin Singletary (FD $8,000, DK $6,900)

DK Value Play #2: Nelson Agholor (FD $7,000, DK $4,500)

Josh Allen is the clear chalk and it’s not very close, as his overall ownership could be near 90% this week. I like Stefon Diggs as the main pivot because he’s got the ability to score a ton of points over two drives, as we’ve seen him do to salvage fantasy performances in the past. Mac Jones is an interesting contrarian play because we could easily see him pay off the price if he can keep up with Allen, and with the Bills missing Tre’Davious White.

Patriots notes: I like both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson but understand it’s tough for them to both eat, so I’ll deal with that by using both in 1/10 GPPs and alternating each in eight of the other builds, with just one without either. The price has come up a bit on Kendrick Bourne but he is a playmaker, along with Nelson Agholor, who could flash some serious game-changing value in lineups tonight if he can haul in some a red zone targets. The Bills are favored in this game but the Patriots have the kind of team that could bury them early if the offense gets off to a slow start. The Patriots DST could be as good or better than the Bills DST, so I’ll try to find room for one or two builds for each because turnovers could play a pivotal role. Hunter Henry is the best value play other than Agholor. Jakobi Meyers is a little out of my price range.

Bills notes: I’ll start off by saying I love the value on Devin Singletary tonight, but only if Zack Moss gets scratched again. IK like what Matt Breida has ben doing but he’s way overpriced for that low of an upside in this game. And let’s be honest, we just saw an RB duo put up big numbers against the Pats. I like the price on Dawson Knox as well, because he has two-TD upside. The WRS to own shouldn’t get to nuts outside of Diggs and Cole Beasley, though I’m partial to using Gabriel Davis considering the physical presence of an athlete him in the red zone. Tyler Bass, and his counterpart on the Pats, seem to be in play this week as well, since they both get so many attempts. The Pats attempt the most, and the Bills attempt the ninth most.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Patriots running game. It’s a timeshare but both get meaningful carries and the Bills unit, while tough against the run, hasn’t faced a bruising unit like these two underrated backs in a while.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 13 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Josh Allen
Stefon Diggs
Mac Jones
Damien Harris
Dawson Knox
Cole Beasley
Rhamondre Stevenson
Devin Singletary
Matt Breida
Kendrick Bourne
Hunter Henry
Jakobi Meyers
Tyler Bass
Nelson Agholor
Bills DST
Patriots DST
Nick Folk (questionable)
Brandon Bolden (questionable)
Emmanuel Sanders
Gabriel Davis
Jonnu Smith
N’Keal Harry
Zack Moss (if active)
Tommy Sweeney
Devin Asiasi
Isaiah McKenzie

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 46.5 Chiefs -8.5

Vegas is making it pretty clear, the Broncos are supposed to struggle offesively to keep up and the Chiefs should be ahead quite early. While I am usually inclined to agree, I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs come out and have one of their random struggle Sundays. All else being equal though, I do believe that the Chiefs get out big in the begining and the Broncos play a much too concervative game plan when trying to catch up and never really get themselves within distance of catching up.

Captains:

Chalk: Tyreek Hill, $16,200 (16-17%)

Based on our oprimizer the chalk captain on the even is non other than the Cheetah, and after 4 straight weeks with no less than 10 targets, including 18 targets in one of those I do not blame you. The numbers have been “meh” for the amount of voume so he is (a) underpriced for his upside and (b) due for a massive game. When it comes to the Chiefs we all know what they bring to the table so play your favorite.

Pivot: Javonte Williams, $11,400 (11-12%)

Finally, after 12 weeks we get to see what Javonte can do with the full work load. We also get the added benefit of a Chiefs defense that is historically mediocre against the run. I want to heap all kinds of platitudes and tell you guys and gals to go all in here. But we need to be aware the Chiefs could run away from this one early and Javonte will not get the workload we hope. But if this game does stay close there is an outside chance that Williams is the top raw points scorer on the slate. Do not play him in all of you lineups at captain but you need to have him inseveral of your builds as a captian. I can’t wait to see what this guy can do.

Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes: $18,600 (15-16%)

As I mentioned above, we all know what KC brings to the table. Mahomes has been very inconsistent this season but we all know his upside and the Broncos defense does not concern me in the slightest tonight. Would anyone be shocked if he threw for 350 and 3 td’s? No, ok me either.

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 (11-12%)

The big three of the Chiefs are largely interchangeable in showdown contests but I had to put Kelce as the bottom of the three simply because Denver has covered tight ends very well all season As a matter of fact they are the 4th best in terms of DVOA against guarding tight ends. Kelce is no normal tight end though, and he can easily end the night with 11 targets, 8 catches for 119 and 2 TD’s but paying for all three studs on the Chiefs is gonna be a tough task so for that reason Kelce is at the bottom of the list for KC tonight.

Contrarian #3: Jerry Jeudy, $10,800 (5-6%)

Outside of Javonte I am grasping at straws with this offense. Teddy simply does not put up big games so it may be in your best interest to pick a different Denver wide receiver in each lineup, It just so happens that I am opting to lean on the talent of Jeudy and hope that Teddy decides to lean on him this week. You could just as easily go with Sutton or even Fant in this same scenario for the same reason. The Broncos will likely be playing from behing so you can leverage the low ownership of any of those pass catchers and and pray that they throw for the entire second half.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. Flex plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Teddy Bridgewater
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Javonte Williams
Jerry Jeudy
Courtland Sutton
Tim Patrick
Noah Fant
Mecole Hardman
Chiefs
Harrison Butker
Mike Boone
Broncos
Darrel Williams
Byron Pringle
Albert Okwuegbunam
Demarcus Robinson
Eric Saubert
Brandon McManus
Blake Bell
Kendall Hinton
Josh Gordon
Marcus Kemp
Michael Burton
Noah Gray

Kickers and defenses:

I’m not really interested in either of these defenses tonight. Teddy really is not prone to turning the ball over and the Broncos play uber conservative football. Even If the Chiefs get ahead big I do not really see them taking too many risks. Both kickers in Butker and McManus are low priced options for me to get close to double digit points if you are looking to load up on all of the obvious big name guys.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 13 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 13 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 13 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,500, DK $17,700)

Value Pivot (FD): Taysom Hill (FD $7,000, DK $14,400)

Value Pivot #2 (DK): Mark Ingram (FD $12,000, DK $7,500)

Top Cowboys Pivot: CeeDee Lamb (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $9,000, DK $8,400)

Contrarian #2: Tony Pollard (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)

Longshot Value Play (DK): Tony Jones (FD $10,000, DK $1,200)

Wowzer, have we got some wild pricing disparity on a couple of key Saints players tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings! Dak Prescott is the chalk on FD over value play Taysom Hill — who is slated to be the starting QB for the Saints. Prescott also has a slight edge on DK over Hill and Mark Ingram, who’s expected to serve as the lead back on TNF (Alvin Kamara will not be available to play, according to Ian Rapoport) after missing Week 12 against the Bills. There’s a lot of vlue combos to explore on both sites, so let’s get to the team notes!

Cowboys notes: CeeDee Lamb is back for the Cowboys, and that means less upside overall for what now qualifies as a risk/reward Michael Gallup, who could find it easier to get loose on a deep ball. Ezekiel Elliott is supposed to get a “serious load” but has fewer then 10 carries in each of his last two games and Tony Pollard is just as effective in terms of fantasy production when he gets the chance. For the discount, I’ll take Pollard in the majority of my GPP builds and fade Zeke in the interest of a contrarian approach. I also like Amari Cooper if he’s active tonight, but he could have a hard time playing at 100 percent in the wake of his bout with COVID, so that’s a seriously risky play even if he goes. I’ll probably have more shares of TE Dalton Schultz either way.

Saints notes: Trevor Siemian has finally given way to Hill, and while that could decrease the usage of Tre’Quan Smith in the red zone, it certainly bumps the importance of Ingram since they’ll likely be doing less throwing overall. I still like Smith tonight, and we can expect that Siemian could possibly make an appearance in this game if Hill totally flops, but on DK they’re both priced around the same. We can downgrade both Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, and I expect more involvement from TEs Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson, who combined for one target/catch last Thursday night. With Ingram back, a lot of folks will forget about Tony Jones, but he’s still a free square on DK at just $800 as a FLEX play. on DK, especially if we get word that Ingram has a setback in warmups and will be limited in any way.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Dak Prescott
Taysom Hill (FD, bump down a spot on DK)
CeeDee Lamb
Mark Ingram
Tony Pollard
Ezekiel Elliott
Dalton Schultz
Michael Gallup
Tre’Quan Smith
Amari Cooper (questionable)
Cowboys DST
Marquez Callaway
Greg Zuerlein
Deonte Harris
Brett Maher
Saints DST
Tony Jones, Jr.
Noah Brown
Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Nick Vannett
Juwan Johnson
Trevor Siemian (DK only)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 13 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Seahawks at Washington

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Russell Wilson (FD $15,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot: Taylor Heinicke (FD $14,500, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (FD $13,500, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #2: Terry McLaurin (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #3: Antonio Gibson (FD $12,000, DK $12,900)

Contrarian #3: Tyler Lockett (FD $12,500, DK $15,300)

Russell Wilson and Taylor Heinicke are pretty much neck-and-neck for the chalk, but I think Wilson will end up being the more popular choice by gametime. Still – the way to get different is to play a WR/RB or even TE Logan Thomas, who’s returning from IR and should be active, albeit on a limited snap count. If the game is close and his hamstring is holding up, I could see him getting a few more looks than normal on crucial drives.

Seahawks notes: DK Metcalf still has as much upside of just about any WR in the the game excluding Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, so I prefer him over Tyler Lockett, but the rest of the Seahawks offense could see showdown-relevant performances from just about anyone, including both Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas and TE Gerald Everett. Dallas is relatively cheap, and he’s assuming the passing down role with Travis Homer out this week. Don’t forget about Freddie Swain, who’s been quiet lately but is on the field for over a third of the offensive snaps, including some opportunities in the red zone. Both the Seahawks DST and kicker Jason Myers are in play as well, especially with some of the sloppy prime time football we’ve bene seeing lately.

Washington notes: It’s primarily going to be Heinicke, Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson in most builds, though the J.D. McKissic/Thomas combo could bear fruit in the two-minute drill if the WFT needs a quick score or gets into garbage time in a Seahawks-dominant game script. Curtis Samuel could make an impact even on a pitch count, and the fringe WRs for Washington, including DeAndre Carter and Cam Sims, have been used a lot in the red zone, but seem overpriced based on the return of Samuel and Thomas. The Washington DST is far from full strength without Chase Young, but it’s still a unit capable of forcing turnovers, getting sacks and making big plays.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks with the Seattle running game. It’s a timeshare and DeeJay Dallas is capable of playing well.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Russell Wilson
Taylor Heinicke
DK Metcalf
Terry McLaurin
Antonio Gibson
Tyler Lockett
J.D. McKissic
Alex Collins
DeeJay Dallas
Logan Thomas
Curtis Samuel
Gerald Everett
Seahawks DST
DeAndre Carter
Washington DST
Joey Slye
Jason Myers
Cam Sims
Freddie Swain
John Bates
Will Dissly
Adam Humphries (questionable)

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Vegas Script: Total: 47 Ravens: -3

This one just feels like a game where a single person will solo takedown the $11 MME contest. We have tons of questionable guys who are expected to play in what Vegas is implying is essentially a pickem game. Then to make it even more interesting, both of these teams’ offenses can and have crapped the bed in contests where the should score like tonight.

Captains:

Chalk: Lamar Jackson, $18,600 :

To the surprise of nobody Lamar is the lock down #1 chalk by a wide margin being projected at over 20% while nobody else is over 10%. I’m going to frame it like this. Will he be the likely top scoring option on the day? Absolutely. Will you take down a showdown contest by yourself with him as your captain? No. If over 20% of the field is on one player as captain you need to build some lineups where you pivot away from him if you to have an opportunity for a big night. Don’t full fade, but do go underweight in one specific scenario. The leverage is far to high for you to not do it.

Pivot: Nick Chubb, $16,800 : 9-10%

I know that Hunt is expected to return after missing the last month with a calf injury but my expectation is that Hunt will be extremely limited and he and D’Ernest Johnson will split the backup duties tonight. I maintain that Chubb is one of the top 3 running backs in the NFL and would have stat lines similar to a healthy Dalvin Cook if he did not have a rushing title winner as his backup. With ~~Kyrie Irving~~ OBJ now in LA the Browns have finally begun to do what they should have been doing since week one, feed their running backs. In the last 2 games Chubb is averaging 7.41 YPC and getting two catches a game and 3 total TD’s. The man is a beast and we can get him at less that half the ownership with similar upside to Lamar. He is the de facto #1 captain for me based on that.

Contrarian #1: Marquis Brown, $16,200: 7-8%

Depending on how people treat his thigh injury when building their lineups Hollywood may find himself closer to 5% than 8% when it is all said and done. It is clear that he is Lamar’s number one receiver and he has upside for days. For me he is one of those players that I am either going to play as the captain or not at all. He has had a few different games this season where he has dropped wide open touchdowns and multiple ones at that. He is either scoring 20 or more DK points or under 10. There is no in between. In the lineups where you do not put him as a captain I recommend flexing the guy below instead.

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews, $12,300: 7-8%

It took a little time to get Andrews going but in his last 4 weeks he has gotten no less that 7 targets in the last 4 weeks and in the lineups as I said above where I want to play the Hollywood Brown has the drops narrative Mark Andrews makes the most sense. When the Ravens get down into the red zone I am expecting Jackson to target Andrews over Brown with Cleveland’s secondary and defense as a whole being back to 100%. Denzel Ward should be able to keep Hollywood covered up in those scenarios where he is unable to utilize his straight line speed.

Contrarian #3: Jarvis Landry, $11,700: 6-7%

Jarvis Landry was the better Browns wide receiver throughout the duration of time when him and ~~Kyrie Irving~~ OBJ shared the field, full stop. I know he isn’t the flashy name and he has a history of being known as “the possession receiver” but he can and has put up 19+ DK point games when Cleveland needs to pass the ball over the last few years including 3 of the last 5 games he played last season during the playoff push and week one against the Chiefs where he caught 5 of 5 and ran in a touchdown. And it is his birthday for those of you who love a birthday narrative.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28. Flex plays:

Lamar Jackson
Nick Chubb
Mark Andrews
Baker Mayfield
Marquise Brown
Jarvis Landry
Justin Tucker
Devonta Freeman
Rashod Bateman
Sammy Watkins
Austin Hooper
Kareem Hunt
Devin Duvernay
Ravens
Browns
Kareem Hunt
David Njoku
Chase McLaughlin
Latavius Murray
Rashard Higgins
Donovan Peoples-Jones
D’Ernest Johnson
Ja’Marcus Bradley
Demetric Felton
Harrison Bryant

Kickers and defenses:

I can and will run out some lineups with both either defense tonight. In my summary paragraph I mentioned it but if you glossed over it both teams can and will have terrible offensive outings at random points in the season regardless of who they are facing including last week where the Ravens scored 10 points against the Dolphins and week 7 where they got the snot beat out of them by the Bengals. And the Browns have Baker Mayfield throwing the ball, not much else needs to be said. Justin Tucker is always in play as he puts up WR2 numbers each and every week (9.5 DK PPG average, better than Jarvis Landry)

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 12 Browns at Ravens 11.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 12 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bills at Saints

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The Thursday night showdown marks game three today, and we’ve got the picks to help you win in the Week 12 NFL DFS showdown contests on Thanksgiving night!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week 12 NFL DFS is already underway, but tonight’s showdown should be fun!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $13,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot #2: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $10,000, DK $8,700)

Contrarian #1: Cole Beasley (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Bills DST (DK $4,500)

We have the opportunity to shoot for the moon in this contest by picking a couple Saints with TD and PPR potential and using either obvious chalk Josh Allen or something as crazy as the Bills DST at captain. If we use the Bills DST, we only need one Saints player in what could be a really interesting contrarian build that leaves a bunch of money on the table. Either way, the options are wide open with how well Allen spreads it around and the Saints injury issues (Alvin Kamara is OUT & Mark Ingram is on the wrong side of questionable with knee swelling).

Bills notes: It’s hard to assess if any of the Bills RBs (Zach Moss, Devin Singletary and the recently relevant Matt Breida), but we know we’ll have Allen and Stefon Diggs contributing on offense. Throw in a few shares of the other capable receivers, including WRs Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis and TE Dawson Knox, and we’ve got a truly wide open range of possibilities. Kicker Tyler Bass remains one of the best and most productive legs in the league, so I’ll be using him in a few builds as well — especially in the ones with Allen at captain. My FLEX priorities are Diggs, Knox, Beasley and Moss.

Saints notes: If Ingram sits, rookie Tony Jones will be a free square at just $600 on DK, and his pass-catching abilities ensure he’ll be a part of the game plan even if Ingram suits up. We could also see some of special-teamer Dwayne Washington, Alex Armah and Ty Montgomery in the RB role if ingram is out. We’ve also got a conundrum at QB, where Trevor Siemian has been ineffective the past few weeks, leading to speculation that gadget play specialist Taysom Hill could see more snaps under center. In any event, it’s not that hard to fit Siemian and Jones, and it’s even easir to fit Hill and Jones. The WRs I like include red zone talent Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, though we could see some plays form the shaky TE conglomerate (Juwan Johnson is probably the best option) in the wake of the MCL injury to Adam Trautman.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives. The Ingram news is crucial, so stay tuned.

Josh Allen
Stefon Diggs
Tony Jones
Dawson Knox
Trevor Siemian
Cole Beasley
Zach Moss
Tre’Quan Smith
Bills DST
Emmanuel Sanders
Devin Singletary
Tyler Bass
Marquez Callaway
Taysom Hill
Deonte Harris
Matt Breida
Gabriel Davis
Juwan Johnson
Brett Maher
Saints DST
Alex Armah
Ty Montgomery

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 12 action!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Bucs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (FD $11,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Saquon Barkley (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Rob Gronkowski (FD $10,000, DK $9,300)

Tom Brady should end up being the chalk tonight, as he’s adept at spreading the ball around to his receivers. There’s no Antonio Brown again this week but the absence of safety Logan Ryan for the Giants could mean a massive bounce-back game from the GOAT, who seemed more than annoyed after last week’s loss to another NFC East opponent, the Washington Football Team.

Giants notes: Sterling Shepard will miss another game, which means an upgrade for rookie WR Kadarius Toney and the explosive Kenny Golladay, who only has one big game this season (Week 4 vs. NO: 6-116-0). Darius Slayton will also be in play for the Giants, but the biggest news is the likely return of Saquon Barkley, who is listed as questionable but is expected to see his first game action since Week 5. While the Giants may want to bring along Barkley’ slowly, he may be in line for a huge workload with Devontae Booker also questionable and seemingly at greater risk of missing the contest. Evan Engram may not be busy, but he’s relevant for his use in the red zone, where he’s scored in consecutive weeks and seeing a few targets per game. But QB Daniel Jones, Barkley and Golladay stand out as the primary targets in this showdown. There’s also the possibility that Elijah Penny sees actin if Booker is inactive and Barkley has an in-game setback.

Bucs notes: The usual suspects are in play for the Bucs, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and even Rob Gronkowski, who’s listed as questionable with a back injury that’s kept him out Since Week 3, but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday before taking a rest day on Saturday. Leonard Fournette remains the only safe RB option, since both Ronald Jones (one snap last week vs. Washington) and Giovani Bernard don’t real have meaty enough roles to consider in anything but large-field GPP builds that count on fluky narratives and injuries. I’d much rather look to a guy like Tyler Johnson (five targets last week), even though he’s likely to assume a smaller snap count and looks with Gronk back in the mix.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Bucs offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Gronk, who could have a monster day against this Giants team.

Tom Brady
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Daniel Jones
Saquon Barkley
Rob Gronkowski
Leonard Fournette
Kenny Golladay
Kadarius Toney
Bucs DST
Evan Engram
Ryan Succop
Darius Slayton
Graham Gano
Giants DST
Tyler Johnson
Kyle Rudolph
Giovani Bernard
Devontae Booker (if he plays)
Ronald Jones
Elijah Penny (if Booker sits)
Cameron Brate
Kaden Smith
Scotty Miller (IR, could be activated)
Collin Johnson

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21

David Stowe 3 years ago

written by David Stowe

Vegas Script: Total: 47.5, Chargers -6

Something is going to have to give in this Steelers/Chargers game. We have one of the worst defensive fronts in the league versus the worst offensive front. The chargers are dead last in missed tackles, ninth worst in total pressures, sixth worst in sacks, and the worst pair in interior run stoppers in the league. The Steelers are 3rd worst in Run blocking only averaging 3.57 YPC with Najee Harris as their main back (that honestly goes to show how good Najee will be given his production this year) and are only giving Big Ben 2.2 seconds to throw over the length of the season. BUT, even with no time to throw, Ben is on pace for 4,000 passing and 20 TD’s with only 8 picks, and this will be a game where he will likely need to throw at least 40 times in order to keep up. So, this is going to be a very interesting situation tonight. If the Steelers give Ben closer to 2.7 seconds (which is possible given the weakness of the Chargers D) this could very well turn into a shootout.

Captains:

Chalk: Austin Ekeler, $16,200: 16%

I was really expecting to see Herbert as the chalk play but to my surprise all signs point to Ekeler being the big chalk by a wide margin. While I get it to some degree, the Steelers are the 3rd best in DVOA against pass catching running backs and Ekeler has not been getting the volume in the run game to lead me towards playing Ekeler in this contest, especially if he is going to be the highest owned captain on the night.

Pivot: Najee Harris, $17,700: 10%

I know I mentioned just how badly the Steelers have been run blocking for Najee but the Chargers are horrid on the interior and Najee’s usage is massive. If he gets is usual 25-30 targets and touches tonight and LA gives up their usual 4.75 yards per carry Najee has a legitimate 30+ DK point ceiling this evening as around 10% caption ownership. If you are banking that the Steelers O-line can do anything against this Chargers defense Najee needs to be one of your top one or two options at captain. It is also worth noting that Draftkings is so nervous about his ceiling tonight that they pulled all of Najee’s props on this game.

Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson, $13,200 : 9%

Maybe it is all of the “Big Ben has a noodle arm” people out there, maybe people think the Steelers are terrible, maybe people know how bad the line is and folks just assume it hurts the receivers. No matter what it is people don’t realize that Dionte is is on pace for around 1200 yards and 6 TD’s as the 8th most targeted receiver in the NFL while only playing 8 games. If you translate those numbers to a per game basis he is 6th in the league in targets per game (5th if you don’t count Ridley), 4th in YAC, and 8th in plays of over 30 yards. He also has not scored less than 14.3 DK point in any game this season outside of week 9 where he had 11.7. In a game where the Steelers will presumably need to throw a Juju-less Steelers team will likely lean on Dionte in a big way.

Contrarian #2: Justin Herbert, $16,800 : 7%

While the Steelers are solid against pass catching receivers they are actually a middle of the road defense against receivers ranking 15th in DVOA in the passing game which forces me to take a long look at a 7% captain Herbert. His props imply that he should end up with close to 300 yards through the air and at least 2 td’s and I am inclined think he exceeds both of those in a game that will likely be more of a shootout than people are expecting.

Contrarian #3: Mike Williams, $11,100: 8%

If you have been a member for any length of time this year you know that we have been targeting #1 receivers against the Steelers all season with good success. They have been pretty susceptible to big plays all season allowing 30 explosive plays of at least 20 yards in the passing game on the year. While everyone is going to lean towards Keenan (and I get it) I want to take advantage of the ownership discount and the big play ability of Williams and bank on him catching a couple of long bombs against the Steelers tonight.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21 Flex Plays:

Najee Harris
Diontae Johnson
Justin Herbert
Mike Williams
Austin Ekeler
Keenan Allen
Chase Claypool
Ben Roethlisberger
Pat Freiermuth
James Washington
Chargers
Steelers
Jared Cook
Dustin Hopkins
Chris Boswell
Ray-Ray McCloud III
Eric Ebron
Donald Parham Jr.
Jalen Guyton

Kickers and defenses:

If you are going to try and fit multiple studs into your lineup this evening you can make a case for playing either kicker in tonight’s game, but I would do so sparingly. With players who could potentially have a good performance like James Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and the husk of Eric Ebron expected to play you “should” be able to fit skill players into your lineups that will fit whatever script that you are trying to go with. There is an ever smaller chance that the defenses could have a successful night in DFS as we all know the offensive line struggles of the Steelers and the seemingly random games where Herbert just flat out forgets how to read defenses. With TJ Watt presumably putting pressure on Herbert for the entire game there is an outside chance that he will have one those games so I can not rule that out as a viable game script.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 11 Steelers at Chargers 11.21: helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comments

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