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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, April 7

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!

https://twitter.com/THEDFSNERD/status/1378563149360680960

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

Wake up early and start grinding because we have an 11 game HUMP DAY MLB DFS slate that kicks off at 1 PM EST and we have a TON of aces to choose from and one stack I plan on anchoring to.

Let’s work backwards shall we? We have a ton of viable elite K arms but there is really only one stack I am in love with so in those instances, we want to work backwards and see how we fill in the rest of our lineup.

The Toronto Blue Jays take on Kyle Gibson and if you were here for Opening Day, this was the same spot we went all-in on with the Royals in a game they scored 14 runs. Gibson is one of the worst arms in baseball and the worst arm on this slate – it is a 5 man Blue Jays stack kind of day.

This was straight from my Opening Day write up:

Gibson was arguably one of the worst arms in baseball in 2020 as he ranked in the bottom 5 in all of baseball in hard contact rate allowed (37.7%) and HR/9 allowed with 1.6 HR/9 in 2020.
In 12 starts last season, Gibson gave up 4 or more runs in half of them and surrendered multiple HR’s in 4 of his 12 starts. THOSE are the starts you are targeting – the multiple HR games with 5,6 and 7 ER’s – that is how you make noise in a MLB DFS GPP!
Gibson struggled with walks (10%) and had just a 9% swinging strike rate last year – meaning people were on base, batters put the ball in play and when they did – they did so at a top 5 hard contact rate.

Gibson promptly went out and gave up 8 hits and 5 ER and then turned it over to one of the league’s worst bullpens for 9 more runs. The Rangers bullpen ranked bottom five last season and so far this year ranks as the second worst with a 8.61 ERA while giving up the most runs (22) in all of baseball.

Gibson is essentially a two-pitch pitcher to right-handed batters, throwing a splitter/slider nearly 80% of the time and while all the Blue Jays are in play, I will say – Lourdes Gurriel is the one who profiles the best against both pitches. 6 of the 9 batters, including Gurriel, have .200+ ISO marks against the splitter which is why I say all of them are in play but Guriel’s marks against the slider from RHP is off the charts. Against the slider, he has a monster .420 ISO with a 91 MPH EV and an average distance traveled of 330 feet.

The Blue Jays are pricey but they are worth it and I think this is the first step in any and all builds today. Stack em all up – jam in 5 however you like – and let the runs flow in!

From a pitching perspective this slate is LOADED – and I would argue, it is not the slate to get cute. In fact, it becomes more about which two elite arms you can fit around a 5 man Toronto stack than anything else.

My man Adam Strangis, as usual, kills it in his pitching breakdown for this slate so I will not simply copy his breakdown – go read it here. However, there is one arm that he did not focus on, that I will and it is Kenta Maeda ($8.3K) against the Detroit Tigers.

Maeda’s 16.6% swinging strike rate last year ranks only behind Shane Bieber on this slate and he gets the “nut” match-up with a right-hander against the Detroit Tigers. If you are new to this game, this is the spot that we wore out last season and so far this season, it has been a goldmine for DFS production as our friends at Statmuse so easily show.

This was a match-up last season that Maeda just dominated over three starts with 8, 8 and 9 K’s in those outings and while the line-up is not exactly the same, it does have 7 high K% hitters and an overall team with a 24% K rate against RHP. Maeda averaged 23 DK points per start last season against the Tigers and I think at this price point he gives you SP1 production at an SP2 price tag.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

LOVE LOVE LOVE this MLB DFS slate today and I am pumped for the first “mid-week” all day MLB DFS slate as we can get our lineups locked in early and then sit back and enjoy.

To me there are two core philosophies on this Main Slate – 1) Stack 5 Blue Jays and 2) Lock in Kenta Maeda. After that, my other pitcher will likely be a salary decision based on the cheap secondary stacks that come available and let me tell you – we will have those.

If you are new to day time MLB DFS – this is where the random punt catchers at $2K get starts, we get the bench guys who randomly get a day game start and all of a sudden you will see some crazy minimum price value that makes a double ace and Blue Jays stack work with relative ease.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, April 6

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!

https://twitter.com/THEDFSNERD/status/1378563149360680960

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

In looking at this 8 game MLB DFS slate, there is a really clear pecking order when it comes to arms that I think will determine how folks opt to build as we have a clear foursome of aces with Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito.

If you opt to drop down we have two electric arms in Wrigley with Freddy Peralta and Adbert Alzolay who I think could win this slate as your pitching pairing OR be the pitchers that get lit up with the wind blowing out in Wrigley. Peralta had a 39% K rate last year and a massive 15.8% swinging strike rate – BOTH marks would rank tops on this slate – more than any of the aces noted above. Alzolay meanwhile had a 33% K rate of his own and after watching Trevor Williams rack up 6 K’s and a 17.6% swinging strike rate last night against the Brewers offense – the ceiling is MASSIVE for the Cubs right-hander tonight.

The only risk I see is the Wrigley weather/wind and the fact these arms have erratic tendencies and can get wild. It is boom or bust but man, the boom potential is there.

Let’s talk some strategy here.

You all know by now, I am a huge fan of going double aces in MLB DFS and this slate sets up really well to do just that. We have seen early on in this MLB DFS season that the arms are ahead of the bats and we have seen lofty K totals racked up on a nightly basis so anchoring to two studs is an ideal path this evening.

My man Adam Strangis did a phenomenal job of breaking down the arms in today’s Starting Rotation and you need to make sure you read it – he nails the breakdown for the top tier and mid-tier and honestly, I did not want to simply regurgitate his analysis in a much more rudimentary way.

Now, if I am playing it straight – I think we need to be living in the range Adam outlined but it dawned on me last night after watching a few days of games and watching Jacob deGrom get pulled after just 77 pitches last night, the early season has been showing more and more that the “Aces” are not being pushed like we would see later in the year. Conversely, we are seeing “lesser arms” take advantage of the early season pitching advantage to put up big games and so it made me wonder – can we actually punt more early in the season and use the “bad arms” now before the bats catch up?

If we look at winning GPP builds the last few days – you will notice outside of the Berrios/Burnes dueling no-hitter night, many of the winning builds have opted to go cheap with SP’s. Last night, the winning $100K line-up had May/Rodon, on Sunday it was Pineda/Eflin, on Friday it was Kikuchi/Lopez.

So early in the MLB season, are the lesser talented arms simply taking advantage of the fact that hitters are struggling to catch up out of the gate? Could we attack the cheap arms tonight when the likelihood is most pay up?

So I am going to PIVOT off what I expected today and instead of going double aces – can we go double punts?

There are two arms that I think have large field GPP appeal tonight and it has far more to do with the opponents than the pitcher themselves.

Tanner Roark ($6.8K) will face a K-heavy Rangers team that has seen Steven Matz (32) and Mike Minor (17) both put up strong games however it is worth noting that RHP that have faced the Rangers (Keller & Singer) have been hit hard. The Rangers projected line-up is likely to have 7 LHB in it and this was actually in Roark’s favor last season as he had a 25% K rate against LHB last year which was 10% higher than his mark to RHB.

Roark worked in the offseason to lose weight and focus on regaining velocity on his sinker, and he racked up 14 K’s in 10 spring training innings with a renewed focus. Could that approach continue to pay dividends here against the Rangers tonight? I have to say, I am intrigued.

Martin Perez ($6.7K) gets perhaps the best on paper match-up tonight against a Tampa Bay team that had a 29% K rate against LHP in 2020. Over the last two seasons, the Rays projected line-up tonight has a 27.2% K rate against LHP and early to start this year they have been quite adept at making mid-level RHP look good.

To start the year, we have seen Nick Pivetta (19.7 DK points), Pablo Lopez (16.9) and Sandy Alcantara (24.5) put up strong games against a Rays team that has been K happy and contact-less as each of these arms noted above gave up just 2 hits per game.

Let me be VERY clear – the best arms are the top tier arms tonight, there is no doubt about that and in cash games or in single entry, you need to play that route. However, the early season returns have shown that cheaper arms have been a path to unexpected ceilings and have been at the top of winning GPP line-ups repeatedly so I want to make sure we at least examine this route – maybe it is not tonight, but it is something we think through as we move forward.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

Did you stack the New York Mets with me last night? Did you tilt as Lindor was robbed of a screaming double or as bombs from Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso got knocked down in the wind and caught at the wall?

Guess what – I am going right back to the well tonight against RHP Chase Anderson.

Anderson is a reverse splits fly-ball pitcher, giving up a .260 ISO to RHB the last two seasons while not exactly being stingy to the lefties with a .190 mark. The wind is expected to be far less significant in Philadelphia tonight and I think the Mets were showing last night as the game went on, they were squaring up the ball and hitting into some bad luck.

If you look at the heart of the Mets order (2-6) with Fransicso Lindor, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Dom Smith and Jeff McNeil – all five of these batters have .230+ ISO marks against RHP since 2019. Anderson was an HR derby-style arm last year, giving up 3 HR/9 in 2020, and his 40% HC rate allowed sets up for a beat down tonight. Have a short memory and go right back to the Mets tonight.

I have a feeling that Freddy Peralta will be a popular mid-range arm as his near 40% K rate last season is going to jump off the page but “fast ball Freddy” who throws the pitch nearly 80% of the time with fly-ball tendencies with the wind blowing out in Wrigley Field, could end up being a disaster.

1-7 in this Cubs projected line-up has a .200+ ISO mark against RHP since 2019 and if you dig deep into the pitch profiles, I think we can call some HR shots (Rocker style) with the Cubs tonight.

Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo and Joc Pederson all have .230+ ISO marks against this fastball velocity from right-handers with an average distance traveled over 320 feet. Wilson Contreras absolutely hammers the curveball which has become Peralta’s prime secondary option to RHB, with a .500 ISO and 46% HC rate. No matter how you cut up this Cubs line-up, you can seemingly find a bat that profiles well.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Today is a great MLB DFS GPP slate and one I think we can find multiple ways to target as we have elite K arms up top and a game in Coors Field that will draw its usual attention.

The goal of Picks and Pivots is ALWAYS to make you think differently through how you build your MLB DFS lineups. This article today is NOT a “playbook” on the top plays for tonight but I wanted to outline a path we can use tonight or even in a future slate based on early season trends.

The reality is – a double ace build with a Mets stack is likely where I land, but I wanted to at least bring up the punt pitcher route and what it has provided and could continue to provide as aces get stretched out early in the year.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, April 5

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!

https://twitter.com/THEDFSNERD/status/1378563149360680960

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

We kick off this 7 game MLB DFS slate on Monday Night with the easiest decision we will make all day – click that little “plus” button next to Jacob deGrom ($10.7K) and move on to the day’s tougher decisions.

deGrom has been the most dominant and consistent arm in baseball over the last three seasons and from a DFS perspective, he is everything we look for with a 39% K rate and 21% swinging strike rate that gives him a massive ceiling every time he takes the mound. On this seven game slate, he is the clear cut SP1 by a country mile and on a site like DraftKings where you need to roster two SP’s, well you simply take the free square here with deGOAT and move on to your SP2 decision.

This decision is far less simple but there is one SP2 I think stands out among the rest of the weak field in Carlos Rodon ($6.8K) against the Seattle Mariners. Over the last two seasons, Rodon has a 26.5% K rate married up with a Seattle line-up that over the same time against left-handed pitching has a staggering 29.5K rate as a team!

This is a spot where the match-up and the splits are what seemingly drive the perfect marriage. The Mariners really do not have the ability either to go too right-handed heavy which is the key against a lefty like Rodon as they have four LHB in the projected line-up which will allow Rodon to lean heavily on his slider, which he throws nearly 50% of the time to left-handed hitters with a 73% whiff rate.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

Going high-low with our two pitchers allows us to really get some strong stacks around Jacob deGrom tonight in our MLB DFS builds and I think we can stay right in New York with the Mets against Matt Moore and the Phillies.

Now I am a die-hard Mets fan so this may be biased and I also am well aware the Mets NEVER score runs for deGrom, but this spot against Moore is one where I am not leading with fan bias and instead am anchoring to metrics.

Moore returns from a season in Japan and has won a spot in the back-end of the Phillie rotation but if we go back to his last full year in the majors in 2018, this was a pitcher with a sub 20% K rate, giving up nearly a 50% hard contact rate and 1.7 HR/9 with almost equal splits to hitters from both sides of the plate. So while Moore did sport a 28% K rate in Japan, using a slightly different cutter, I am going to anchor to the MLB larger data set here until proven otherwise.

That leads me to the Mets bats and their new 1-2 punch in the middle of the order in Pete Alonso ($4.8K) and Francisco Lindor ($4.8K). Over the last two seasons, Alonso has mashed LHP to the tune of a .309 ISO and that cutter that Moore is relying more on – well Alonso has a tidy little .356 ISO mark against that pitch types from lefties so go ahead and throw it Mr.Moore.

Lindor is fresh off his $300+million dollar deal and while his power numbers dipped last season against lefties, his contact rate remains a team high at 85% against LHP since 2019 with an average distance of 310 feet and nearly 50% of those balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or more. In a ballpark like Philly, this could be an easy multi-hit day for Lindor in front of the power of Pete Alonso.

I mentioned Moore struggled equally to left-handed batters in his career so do not be afraid to mix and match guys like Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto and Dom Smith around the big two. Nimmo and Smith both have .200+ ISO marks against left-handed pitching since 2019 and make for strong low-owned additions to a Mets stack due to the L/L match-up that most will avoid and in this case – the metrics say we should do the exact opposite.

The more traditional splits work in the Mets favor as well as they have a pair of lefty mashers (even though some in this industry say that is not a thing) – in James McCann and JD Davis. Both hitters sport a .205+ ISO mark against LHP since 2019 and both have .200+ ISO marks against low-velocity fastballs and cutters – the two primary pitches for Moore. In summary – stack the Mets in any which way you want – EVERY batter is in play.

Let’s see – checks slate- sees the Chicago White Sox versus a lefty. Smiles.

Now while Justus Sheffield has been adept at limiting power to RHB in his short career, the White Sox are a different animal when it comes to attacking lefties as they can simply flip a line-up entirely to the right side with power throughout.

Sheffield relies nearly 50% of the time on his sinker to generate a 50% GB rate which is how he keeps the power numbers down. The issue is that guys like Tim Anderson ($5.1K) and Jose Abreu ($5.8K) both mash that pitch type to the tune of a .250 combined ISO marks. Now Anderson left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury so this White Sox lineup may look a little different on Monday with Luery Garcia ($3.6K) potentially stepping into that spot with 2B/OF eligibility on DraftKings.

The White Sox will continue to roll out a cheap punt in Andrew Vaughn ($2.5K) versus left-handed pitching and C/DH Yermin Mercedes ($3K) continues a red-hot start, going 9-14 to start the year and gives you added flexibility and salary relief in a White Sox stack.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate to me is simple in many ways due to the fact that our MLB DFS lineups in large part come pre-loaded with Jacob deGrom as our SP1. The real difference then becomes in how you build around him with a SP2 and powerful stacks.

I think going with the Mets/White Sox bats against hittable LHP gives you significant power upside along deGrom can anchor single entry and large field GPP builds.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday, April 4

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!

https://twitter.com/THEDFSNERD/status/1378563149360680960

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

For the first time since the 2021 MLB DFS season started, we have a Main Slate without the Dodgers in Coors Field and this is the first slate without obvious ace-level arms – which means we have far more landmines to navigate and potential risk.

The two best arms on the slate in terms of K metrics are Ian Anderson ($9.8K) and Zach Eflin ($8.2K) who sported 29.7% and 28.6% K rates respectively last season while also having 25% or lower HC rates which means they have high K upside and the potential for run prevention – however, the issue for both will lie in the fact they face each other, and more specifically the Braves and Phillies lineups.

If you have been following along with Picks and Pivots early this season, you know that I am a huge proponent of going double-aces on DraftKings, anchoring to high K arms and banking on high variance from hitters that allow me to attack cheaper stacks.

The issue with that approach is that it cannot be applied to every slate equally – like today – if we do not have the elite K arms, I do not think we need to force it.

So rather than start from the top, let’s work our way up from the bottom with two punt arms that I think have some GPP appeal.

Jeff Hoffman ($5.4K) by all metrics is an arm we are not going to start our day considering based on his history but for a pitcher that has spent his entire career in Coors Field, the move out to Cincinnati could pay big dividends.

The reality is, Hoffman outside of his career in Coors has been a totally serviceable arm with a 4.8 ERA and a 21.6% K rate which in the context of this slate, actually puts him in contention to be playable. If you dig deeper, his best K metric split is on the road against RHB, sitting at 23% – and guess what he is about to face today with the Cardinals- a projected line-up with 5-6 right-handed batters included.

Bruce Zimmermann ($6.7K) makes his first start of 2021 and with just 7 innings of major league experience, the Orioles left-hander will get the tough task of pitching in Fenway Park. Interestingly enough, Zimmermann pitched 4 innings of relief against Boston in Fenway last season and did quite well – with 4 innings of 2 hit ball with 5 K’s on his way to 15 DK points.

https://twitter.com/GiraffeNeckMarc/status/1376544336091959303

What is interesting about Zimmermann is that his pitch mix and approach are still developing and we may end up seeing an improved version of himself in his first full big-league season. Zimmermann spent the off-season re-working his mechanics which is outlined in great detail in this great piece from Fangraphs and what we saw in Spring Training was a much different arm with better breaking stuff and more velocity. It is a small sample size, but in 9 innings, he allowed just one hit and sported a 10:3 K: BB ratio.

Listen, I am not going to pound the table and tell you that punting with these arms is a slam dunk – it is far from it. There is risk but there is risk with nearly every arm on this slate and I think the perceived “good arms” are overpriced relative to their talent. So instead- can we punt with arms that have demonstrated K ability and still give us all the salary we want to spent on bats? I think so.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

With all the salary we could want, we can attack the best bats on this slate and the game that catches my eye is Yankees/Blue Jays.

The Yankees face off with RHP TJ Zeuch, a low K ground ball arm and the fact that the Yankees have one of the highest totals on the Main Slate, over 5 runs today, will make them a popular place to spend up against arguably the worst arm we have today. The weather in New York will be 60 degrees and sunny with 10MPH winds blowing straight out and so this is a a spot where I think a Yankee stack of power bats could pay massive dividends.

The Blue Jays side of this game very honestly is where my GPP mind goes to. At the start of my research I was intrigued by RHP Domingo German who is back for the Yankees at the back end of the rotation his suspension for domestic violence – listen this kid has tremendous K potential with 26% and 27% K rates his previous two years but that came with nearly 40% hard contact and almost 2 HR/9.

I could have just as easily made the argument FOR German has an SP option on this slate – the kid has electric stuff as evidenced by his 17:1 K:BB ratio in the spring and if the Blue Jays lineup is a Sunday Special – well, maybe we need to reconsider. However, this is also an arm who gives up a ton of hard contact and power against one of the most exciting and powerful young lineups in baseball.

The Blue Jays lineup is not only powerful – but they are pricey on DK with guys like Vlad, Bichette, Biggio and Teoscar all in the $4-$5K and so here is a spot where you take your stand. Are you playing the K rate for German or are you attacking an arm that have up a ton of hard contact with a high HR/9 rate with the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium?

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Sunday’s forMLB DFS are always tricky because we tend to see days off for star players and odd lineups that can take a fringe arm and quickly make him a core play if lineups break right.

Today – DISCORD is going to be huge as we adjust and react to lineups.

Let’s be honest – there is no arm today I feel like we HAVE to have, let alone getting two on DraftKings – so instead, can we pay down for arms and let the bats win us this slate? As we get lineups out today, I think we may find that some fringe arms are in better spots then we first thought!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, April 3

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this Saturday Main Slate with 6 games on the MLB DFS slate, we are once again confronted with the question of how we attack the Dodgers in Coors Field.

With a 7+ run total after scoring 11 runs last night, the Dodgers are going to be insane chalk again – with the core batters all sitting around 40-50% ownership in GPP’s.

Listen, I get it – but baseball is the one sport where I am willing to fade the chalk ESPECIALLY when it comes to hitters as there is no DFS sport with the variance that baseball has when it comes to batters. If the Dodgers go nuts, I am done for – but if they flop at 50% ownership, that is the kind of crazy leverage where you could get a GPP takedown, and frankly, that is the goal any time we play tournaments.

The chalk builds tonight on DK look like Corbin Burnes as your SP1 with as many Dodgers as you can jam in and for cash, I am fine following that path – but for GPP’s we have more than enough viable pivots.

First off – we pay up for pitching – at both spots – all the way up with both Walker Buehler and Lance Lynn who are both over $9K. Buehler over the last two season has a 30% K rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and faces a Rockies projected lineup that has a 27% K rate against RHP since 2019.

Lynn meanwhile is at his best against right-handed heavy teams, sporting a 32.4% K rate against RHB since 2019 and will face likely 6 righties in the Angels lineup.

In both cases, Walker in Coors and Lynn against the Angles are not spots that stand out as “must have” environments for SP’s and couple that with the fact everyone wants Dodgers will leave these guys 10-20% owned tonight. I will take the known commodities on the mound with 30% K rate upside every time and tonight going Buehler/Lynn will be a massive difference maker.

For our stacks – this is easy – we have a right-handed heavy team against a lefty that has been throttled by RHB since 2019 to the tune of a .253 ISO. Caleb Smith is in for a hurting tonight against the San Diego Padres who can roll out a Murderer’s Row of right-handed power.

All of Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado and Wil Myers have .250+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019 and I would argue that this stack has every bit the power upside to match the Dodgers tonight. Looking at ownership right now – you can get a Machado/Myers/Cronenworth middle of the order stack for combined 5-7% ownership – compare that to a Turner/Bellinger/Lux stack at 40% ownership and ask yourself if the Dodgers are really 8-9X more likely to outscore the Padres middle of the order.

One of the ways I think you can get serious leverage tonight is to not only ignore the Dodgers but to attack the chalky Corbin Burnes. Burnes is pushing nearly 60% ownership tonight as of this writing and I am sorry, but that is exactly where I think we can get a huge advantage on the field.

Burnes has electric K stuff for sure, but he also gives up a ton of power, especially to lefties, with a .200 ISO and 43% HC rate allowed to LHB since 2019. The Twins tonight will roll out 4 lefties but they also throw out right-handed batters with some serious reverse splits and while Burnes has shown he has elite K ability this is also a pitcher who gave up 3 HR/9 in 2019 before his breakout 2020.

Now – I would not make the Twins a priority stack – but I do love the idea of using them as a mini-stack around the Padres tonight as a handful of the Twins profile really well against Burnes.

Burnes throws his slider nearly 40% of the time to righties and guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton hammer that pitch type with .200+ ISO marks and 300+ average distance traveled. Against LHB, Burnes relies on his cutter nearly 40% of the time and Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have .400 and .280 ISO marks against that pitch type.

With Burnes being so popular tonight, I think there are a variety of ways the Twins bats get to him and picking off 1-2 bats with HR ability could help you get low owned dongs that also give you direct leverage off the chalk arm!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Slates like tonight are the best and worst of MLB DFS. Listen, the Dodgers are the best spot on the board but the ownership pushing nearly 50% on these bats that is correlated with Corbin Burnes being SUPER chalky gives us the Ricky Bobby path tonight – either we are first or last.

I am happy to fade the chalk tonight and let the chips fall where they may. The San Diego Padres bats have all the upside to match the Rockies and allow me enough salary savings to also get two elite K arms. Two aces and a 5 man power stack at single digit ownership sounds lovely to me!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Opening Day 2021

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the 2021 Opening Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you have been waiting to join the Win Daily Sports family – now is your chance! Promo code Sweet 16 gets you 16% off the package of your choice – all in time for March Madness.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

The first thing you will notice when you open your MLB DFS slate for Opening Day is how DraftKings and FanDuel opted to approach the staggered start times differently. FanDuel has included the Yankees and Indians 1 PM EST starts while DraftKings begins their 9 game slate at 2:10 PM EST.

The biggest difference is what this means for our pitching pool as Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are going to be aces that are not available on the DraftKings slate. Neither site will have the Mets/Nationals nightcap which means no Opening Day Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. As a Mets fan, this makes me sad.

I bring this up because typically early season MLB DFS gives the advantage to the elite arms as the weather remains cooler in early April, the hitter’s are not yet in a regular-season groove and the pricing is generally softer from a DFS perspective. This has always lead me early in the years to prioritize arms over bats early but I will say, the way DraftKings has Opening Day set up – they make you think about it.

Not only do we lack the typical “Opening Day Studs” on this 9 game slate but we also get arguably the best offense in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Coors Field! So right off the bat, we get Coors Field slates with lofty Vegas run totals that may make people push the hitters to the top of their priority list.

However, if you are new to MLB DFS you need to realize that baseball is the highest variance sport for fantasy specifically in how it relates to hitters. Even the best of the best in the sport are only successful a third of the time at the plate which means that even someone like Mike Trout can leave you with a big fat zero on any given night. You never get that same level of “floor” for an NBA star like Giannis or an NFL stud like Derrick Henry – barring injuries, these guys always get their stats – in MLB when it comes to batters, that is far from guaranteed.

Conversely, however, this is also why MLB DFS is one of my favorite GPP sports because the variance in offense gives you massive boom or bust potential on any given night. This is what leads me to utilize “stacking” as an ideal GPP strategy in MLB DFS – putting together multiple hitters from the same team to try and maximize that upside.

Sure you can go home run hunting if you like but if you have the lead-off man who doubled, the 2nd hitter who walked, and then the #3 hitter who drilled a home run into the outfield seats – well you have maximized every point of that DFS upside versus those who rostered only the guy who “got the HR.”

On DraftKings you can stack up to 5 hitters from the same team and personally, this is a strategy I will use early and often and it is one I will help guide you through on this slate and throughout the season.

Enough small talk – let’s dive in!

MLB DFS Picks – Opening Day Arms

On DraftKings, the highest-priced arm on the slate is going to be Yu Darvish ($10.4K) who gets a home start for his new San Diego Padres team against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Darvish was every bit the MLB DFS ace last season as he ranked top 11 in both K rate and swinging-strike rate with a 31.3% K rate and 14.4% SWSTR rate.

Strikeouts are king in MLB DFS as each strikeout will get you 2.75 DK points and it is the arms with the elite K ability that I am going to want over and over when we have them available to us in our MLB DFS Picks.

Darvish changed his pitch mix drastically in 2020, cutting his fastball usage nearly in half while utilizing his curveball nearly 15% of the time and doing all that while cutting his walk rate in half. Now, Darvish still did struggle with hard contact allowed, a 34.2% rate which was top 12 in baseball – so while he could miss bats, when they squared him up, he got hit hard.

Darvish also had a little bit of luck on his side last year as he sported an 83% Left on Base rate which was top 5 in baseball and a near 10% jump on his career marks. Now it is possible at age 33, with the pitch mix change and the move to an even friendlier pitcher’s park in San Diego that he can maintain that level of run prevention along with his elite K rate but I think his larger career sample size would tell you there is risk in paying the premium dollar for him on the first slate and I could argue that if he is chalky, the Arizona bats make for a sneaky mini leverage stack.

As Adam Strangis pointed out in his Starting Rotation Darvish has really anchored to his cutter, throwing it nearly 40% of the time against left-handed heavy lineups and this was a pitch type Arizona handled well last year – especially the top of the order. Guys like Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar have both hammered this pitch type with .300 and .400 ISO marks respectively and nearly 50% hard contact rates. This Arizona team has some dangerous bats up top and as a team that struck out just 20% of the time against RHP last season which limits the upside in my mind for Yu on Opening Day!

Aaron Nola ($10.1K) is every bit the ace that Darvish showed last season with metrics that match or exceed his as his 33.2% K rate was 2% higher than Darvish while his 13.5% SwStr % was nearly 1% below. In all cases, Nola was a similar top 10 K arm and on this first slate my guess is that with the ballpark difference and the the fact that Nola takes on the Braves, will make Nola nothing more than a low-owned pivot off a likely popular Darvish.

Nola faced the Braves twice last season and we saw the ceiling in his second start with 8 innings of 1 run ball and 10 K’s on his way to 38 DK points. The first outing was not so kind, as he lasted just 2 innings in Atlanta, giving up 4 ER’s and leaving the game with -1.4 DK points.

Nola had some serious home/road splits in his metrics last season as he sported a 36% K rate at home, a 6% increase on his road mark and most importantly saw his 1.42 HR/9 mark on the road drop to 0.91 when pitching in Philadelphia, where he will be on Opening Day.

Nola also exhibited serious L/R splits in 2020 with a 39.7% K rate against RHB which was a 13% increase over the lefties and a staggering shift from the previous season. The driver of this was simple – he went from using his change-up just 15% of the time to a staggering 35% of the time against right-handed batters as his biggest put away pitch with a 35% whiff rate. That change in approach drove this high K output against right-handed heavy teams and with the Braves having only two hitters from the left side in their projected line-up (Albies/Freeman) – Nola stands out as my top GPP SP1.

The last of my “aces” is my lock and load SP2 arm on this slate who arguably can be treated as an SP1 in Kenta Maeda ($8.3K).

Maeda sits in the top 11 in baseball in all the same K metrics we rattled off for Yu and Nola with a 32.3% K rate which is right in the middle of those two but with a 17.2% SWSTR% which was third in all of baseball last season behind only deGrom and Lucas Giolito.

From an advanced stats perspective, Maeda was actually the best pitcher of this trio as he had the lowest SIERA and xFIP of any of the “Big 3” here on Opening Day and yet we can get him at a $2K price discount.

Maeda gets to take on a Brewers team with a 26% K rate against RHP last season and a near 50% GB rate which plays in perfectly to Maeda’s heavy ground ball approach to generate soft contact. That ability to get weak contact WITH swing and miss stuff makes him an elite play for cash games with substantial GPP upside due to his pricing.

My strategy on this slate, especially on DraftKings is to go “double aces” and with Maeda operating as an ace as a far too cheap SP2 it will allow me to take either Darvish or Nola as my SP1.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

When it comes to MLB DFS, the pitchers are always going to be my first priority – the reality is you cannot miss on arms when it comes to DFS so I want to anchor to arms I feel good about knowing that batter’s by their nature, are going to be where my “variance” lies.

That said, with my bats, it becomes about the hitters but even more so about which arms I want to attack and that is where stacking comes in. Now the Dodgers in Coors Field are CLEARLY the most optimal spot but their pricing is going to make getting two of the top arms impossible and so I think we find a cheaper stack that faces in my opinion – the worst arm on the slate.

The Kansas City Royals will take on Kyle Gibson and the Rangers and this is the stack that I think can win me a slate on Opening Day.

Gibson was arguably one of the worst arms in baseball in 2020 as he ranked in the bottom 5 in all of baseball in hard contact rate allowed (37.7%) and HR/9 allowed with 1.6 HR/9 in 2020.

In 12 starts last season, Gibson gave up 4 or more runs in half of them and surrendered multiple HR’s in 4 of his 12 starts. THOSE are the starts you are targeting – the multiple HR games with 5,6 and 7 ER’s – that is how you make noise in a MLB DFS GPP!

Gibson struggled with walks (10%) and had just a 9% swinging strike rate last year – meaning people were on base, batters put the ball in play and when they did – they did so at a top 5 hard contact rate.

Past Gibson, you get into one of the worst 10 bullpens in baseball last year for Texas and so if the Royals get to Gibson early and often, they will get the back-end of a terrible bullpen to pad their stats as the game goes on.

The top of the Royals lineup is a speed/power combination with Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and the newly-acquired Andrew Benintendi – all sitting in front of power bats like Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana.

Gibson gave up a .233 ISO mark to LHB in 2020 and a nearly 50% HC rate to RHB so no matter the side of the plate, I think this stack can get to him for an early crooked number.

This 5 man Royals stack alongside a Maeda and Nola/Darvish ace pairing, will still leave you roughly $2.7K per batter for the last 3 spots in your build and I would argue this stack gives you every bit the upside as the high-priced Dodgers.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

First off – welcome back MLB DFS – how awesome is it to be reading about Opening Day and fantasy baseball!

Secondly, it will be important to re-align ourselves with how we want to attack our MLB DFS picks after a shortened 2020 season. Take the time to really dig into your builds and players rather than simply “clicking names” because early season MLB DFS can be where we get leverage off the masses before they have had the time to adjust.

My goal on Opening Day is to anchor to a tried and true formula – going double aces with a 5 man high-upside stack. That means going with Nola/Darvish as an SP1 with Kenta Maeda as my locked-in SP2 and pairing them with a 5 man Royals stack against Kyle Gibson.

I am so pumped for this MLB season with Win Daily Sports as we will have amazing content each day for cash games and GPP’s and our wide suite of tools and projections to help you get an edge all year long!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, October 17

David Stowe 5 years ago

written by David Stowe

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight we have the FINAL MLB DFS slate of the season with a Game 7 in the ALCS which will make this the last multi-game slate of this crazy abbreviated baseball season.

We are looking to go out with a bang here and build that bankroll before Sunday’s NFL DFS action – and if you have not yet – make sure you read our FREE Week 6 Game by Game breakdown and if you are new to Win Daily – jump into FREE Discord with us and get all the expert help you need to win big!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday Slate Breakdown:

After days and days of sorting through scraps for pitching – we open up today’s slate and see a stable of elite arms which makes this a slate that should/could play differently from what we have been seeing. We have four arms in Walker Buehler/Max Fried and Lance McCullers/Charlie Morton who all have demonstrated K upside and have game logs from the LCS to support it. All four arms delivered solid performances the first games of this series ranging from 18 DK points (Buehler), 21 (Morton), 25 (Fried) all the way up to the ceiling of McCullers (32).

McCullers is the clear outlier, the 11 strikeout ceiling performance standing out among the field and his $8.3K price point on DK will likely make him an easy spend up option on this slate. The Rays offense has consistently been the one to attack for K upside as this is a projected line-up with a 27-28% K rate and we have seen other Astros starters hit for strong games with Framber Valdez (20 and 29 DK points) and Zack Greinke (24 DK) showing us the path to cashing tends to go through the Rays K heavy offense.

The flip side – McCullers is the only arm of the four giving up a .200+ ISO to hitters and oh by the way, he does that to both sides of the plate. That K upside comes with some serious power risk and let’s not overlook he gave up 2 bombs to the Rays (Margot/Zunino) and this was after getting tagged for 3 HR’s in his start against Oakland where Davis, Olson and Murphy took him deep.

So in GPP’s – I think we have to assume, McCullers is the chalkiest of the options and because of the HR risk he has displayed in the postseason and the overall ISO risk he has had all 2020 – I would argue the Rays are the best leverage stack we could ask for.

Not only do they have a path against McCullers but this Astros bullpen has been up against the wall for days now – using closer Ryan Pressly in each of the last 3 games with Scrubb/Javier working last night and two of the last three days.

So I think taking a path and stacking the Rays could end up being an elite way to attack this slate. The Rays have been the definition of homer happy in the postseason with 70%+ of their runs coming via the long ball and from a DFS perspective – that is what is going to win you money on a two game slate.

It all starts with Randy Arozarena but by and large, this Rays team is priced down outside of him which makes stacking them alongside another elite offense – a really easy way to build on DK.

My other take from this game – the Rays may be reeling a bit, but Kevin Cash knows he has the best bullpen arms ready to go tonight and I think with Charlie Morton and that pen behind it, it gives you a path to a Rays onslaught kind of build.

So rock Morton with a Rays stack – hope Tampa gets to McCullers early and gives Uncle Charlie a path to another 5 inning win and 20 DK points and you could have the core build that drives you over the cash line.

The Dodgers/Braves game is the first one up on the slate and I actually think this one could be more of a true pitcher’s duel despite the two elite offenses. This is far more anecdotal than it is analytical – but with the ALCS game being a winner take all Game 7 – I think that one plays far more chaotic than this NLCS counterpart where they may need to live to fight another day.

With the Braves using a bullpen game in Game 5 – they may need Max Fried to go a bit deeper and old tight pants himself, Walker Buehler is going to look for another 100+ pitch outing with some more efficency to lengthen this series for the Dodgers.

This game being played in the afternoon could actually help the pitcher’s as well if Globe Life Field keeps the roof open and we start to get shadows later in the game to impact the hitters ability to pick up the pitches.

I am going to lean Buehler here tonight just on pure stuff and K metrics alone as his 31% K rate in 2020 and 14% SS rate far outpace any other arm on this slate.

Pair Walker with a LAD stack and attack Fried and a tired Braves bullpen – and you can hope you get a similar playbook to what we saw in TB/Houston last night. Houston got runs early and forced Tampa to use their lower-tier bullpen arms with a Game 7 coming up the next day.

If the Dodgers can get to Fried early, considering how many arms Atlanta had to use yesterday – they may simply save their best bullets for a Game 7 and that could mean some seriously positive late-inning matchups for those Dodgers bats.

UPDATE – With Chris Taylor OUT, Kike’ Hernandez ($3K) becomes a core play with his 2B/OF eligibility on DraftKings as he opens up any and every build you could want.

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Well kids – this is it. For real this time.

Enjoy this final slate – don’t simply play the best plays – think through game theory in all your lineups and the paths to profit. We can watch ownership as it updates during the day and use Discord to talk through the best paths to leverage.

Thank you all for reading along each and every day with MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – for now, I will be taking my talents to NFL – but we will see you back here in the Spring for hopefully – a normal MLB season.

And oh yeah – stack against Jon Lester.

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, October 16

Gary Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday Slate Breakdown:

Just when we thought we were done – ANOTHER night of elimination avoided and we get ourselves some Friday Night MLB DFS!

Unlike the last few slates, we actually have multiple strong pitching options with Framber Valdez and Blake Snell in a rematch of Game 1 and Dustin May getting tabbed with the Game 5 start for the Dodgers. The only unknown is who the Braves will run out as they have only said, they will NOT run out Max Fried on short rest for Game 5 up 3-1.

I will say this – DraftKings pricing up #FreeSquare Christian Pache to $3.1K on a day we actually want to pay for pitching is very tilting. My gut instinct was to go Framber/Snell and lock in $2K Pache and be on my way – very crafty DK – VERY crafty!

It sounds like whatever the Braves end up doing – it is likely not a path we are going to prioritize considering the other options. Maybe folks will go there after Bryse Wilson dropped 24 DK points last night, but we have seen the range of outcomes using fringe arms against the Dodgers loaded offense (see Kyle Wright).

So your decision likely comes down to the Framber/Snell/May debate and with May being just $7K on DraftKings, it does offer you some serious salary relief on a night where we do need it. I think – as it has all LCS week – the decision comes down to picking on the Rays/Astros hitters or the dangerous Braves/Dodgers.

Valdez gets the best match-up on paper against a Rays projected line-up that has a 28% K Rate and after 8 K’s in Game 1, the path to value here is pretty clear.

Snell is intriguing because of the raw K ability, with a K rate over 30% since 2019 and a massive 16% SS rate however the Astros line-up is basically the worst on paper match-up (17% K rate) and with just 2 K’s in Game 1, how much will that impact folks decision making?

I think the decision for most will likely come down to Snell or May as their SP2 alongside Framber. With it being just a two game slate, the ownership will likely be similar on both these arms so I am not sure we get any advantage playing that angle.

What leads me to Snell over May is 1) The k pedigree for Snell is FAR greater than May and 2) Snell threw 105 pitches last game while May has not pitched more than 2 innings since the post season started.

If you end up going May, I would double down and stack the Astros hitters against Snell to maximize your leverage. As great as Snell can be, he can be hit by righties as his .210 ISO to RHB in 2020 would support.

So to me – any lineup with May – should probably have a Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa stack alongside it to attack Snell early in this game.

If you end up going with Snell, then the same logic applies on leverage – stack Braves against May and the Dodgers pen. May has been dominant against RHB, limiting HC and generating a high GB rate with low ISO so the match-up would say to focus on the lefties but with unknowns on how deep May will even pitch – I may simply work backwards into which Braves bats fit my build alongside the best stack of the night.

So once again – that is the Dodgers – and a Framber Valdez/Dodgers bats core is likely going to be at the heart of how I attack this slate.

The Dodgers lineup will be key to watch – will we get another start from Edwin Rios ($3.4K) after homering in back to back games? Getting his power and salary relief is a huge key in builds tonight -especially if we want to pay up for both Snell and Framber (and even May to an extent).

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Going into today – my initial reaction is to anchor to Framber Valdez in the highest K match-up on paper, and one he has already had success with – and align that with the Dodgers stack against what is likely to be a Braves bullpen day.

After that – it really comes down to Snell versus May and Astros bats versus Braves bats. I lean Snell just due to pedigree alone but if the builds work better with the May salary relief, then I am totally fine landing there once we have line-ups.

This may be it – it may not be – but I am going to keep saying it because every day I have – we get another day of MLB DFS – so let’s rock!

Time to dig in – let’s get it today!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, October 15

Gary Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday Slate Breakdown:

Thank you Astros. No seriously – you winning last night gives us another shot at a two game slate this evening and for yours truly who had far too much Kyle Wright and not enough Dodgers stacks – I am itching for one more crack at this MLB DFS thing before we get to the offseason!

Now enough happiness – here is the reality. We know very little about this slate in actuality as Clayton Kershaw is the only confirmed true starting pitcher and there is a very real chance all the other three teams go with a bullpen approach.

Here is what we know:

https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/1316616014382223360

https://twitter.com/DOBrienATL/status/1316439574068047874

https://twitter.com/juanctoribio/status/1316589619706761216

So if you are trying to anchor in on a core build today early on – the easy answer is lock in Kershaw and stack 5 Dodgers against Wilson.

Over the last two seasons, Wilson has just an 18% K rate, 8% SS rate and gives up .288 ISO to LHB and .235 to RHB. Remember yesterday when the Dodgers faced a low K arm who struggled to get lefties out? Kyle Wright is still racking up negative points for my DFS lineups as I type this.

It may sound like an oversimplification, but with so much unknown, we simply need to anchor to what we do know and getting the best arm on the slate with the best offensive has to be where we lay our foundation.

Now after that – can we get weird? Fo. Sho.

If we don’t want to play Bryse Wilson (we don’t), then we are going to be left with the bullpen game in TB/Houston. Both Luis Garcia and Chase DeJong are $4.1K on DraftKings and we could get 2 innings against the high K Rays line-up.

That $4.1K range actually I think is where you can try and get weird on this slate as an SP2. Listen, if you are sorting through a bunch of options that are 1-2 inning guys – what says we can’t go with closers? The only disadvantage there is that they may not ever get into the game and you sport a big fat 0 – but if you play the “known” with Luis Garcia as an opener, is the opportunity cost really that high?

In his last three outings, he has gone 3 total innings with..wait for it…….3.2 fantasy points (which actually would have been a huge improvement over Kyle Wright – and yes I am still tilting).

The point is that if we end up with Kershaw and a pitcher pool of 1-2 inning guys, then it’s a dartboard throw at best which one you pick. This is where Discord is going to be key today – we need to stay on top of news and reports and try and find our edge here.

With the Dodgers having a “weak spot” at 2B – it lines up well from a correlation perspective to stack either the Astros/Rays alongside the Dodgers as you can use Jose Altuve/Brandon Lowe at that spot and whichever you choose in your builds, I think will determine which 3 man mini-stack you roll with.

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

First look articles are always tough and today is well – impossible. However, I think there is some value in having this first look build under our belts because it will allow us to pivot easier as news breaks – waiting to get the news and then reacting (especially as many of us are juggling real world responsibilities) can be a recipe for “well, I threw this together.”

So go into the day with the idea of Kershaw and 5 Dodgers bats – with the expectation you go with an Astros/Rays mini-stack around them. What that allows you to do is focus your time on the SP2 decision and let’s roll.

Maybe this is the final slate of the MLB DFS season and while the pitching options may be ugly – can it really be uglier than 30% Kyle Wright?

Time to dig in – let’s get it today!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, October 14

Gary Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday Slate Breakdown:

Well this could be it my friends – with the Rays one game away from the World Series, this could be the final two game slate and Picks and Pivots of the MLB season. If it is – I just want to thank you all for reading along in this abbreviated sprint of a season and I hope you were able to get better at MLB DFS each day and make some money along the way!

It is really hard to make an argument to fade Tyler Glasnow today – like really hard. We finally have an elite K arm on a two-game slate and that 38% K rate is so far and away the best on the slate that the opportunity cost could be massive if you opt to fade him.

The argument, besides ownership, is that Houston is a low K team – striking out just 19% against RHP and while the K metrics are off the charts for Glasnow – it is worth noting that he has given up a .268 ISO and 2.45 HR/9 to RHB this season.

So you can take a few paths here – 1) Play the clear best arm on the slate and hope you guess right on the bats as your way to differentiate 2) Fade Glasnow and hope it is a floor game for him or 3) Go full leverage and stack against him with the right-handed heavy Astros.

It is potentially the last slate of the MLB season – let’s put it all out there and get crazy today my friends! That is right – option #3 it is.

Now not only are you fading the best arm on the slate, but you are going to attack him and THEN attack the elite pen of the Rays. It is risky – super risky – but it could a massive payoff in GPP’s.

Think about it – if the Astros can get to Glasnow early, you not only get that leverage on the field but if Houston can get ahead you also likely face the “lesser” arms in the Tampa pen.

If you are going this route – you want to stick with the righties who profile well – and that is ones who hit high-velocity fastballs well as well as the curveball which make up nearly 90% of Glasnow’s offerings – that means George Springer and Alex Bregman are must-plays in this build.

Martin Maldonado and Carlos Correa profile well against the fastball and curve alone so would be secondary options. The one batter who stinks against both – Jose Altuve– as he has a sub .150 ISO against both pitch types.

The other offense that really intrigues me tonight is the Atlanta Braves as they will take on Julio Urias to start before they get into the beat up Dodgers pen which has now had to account for 9+ innings the last two nights.

Urias is a high velo fastball dependent arm and that could spell trouble against the Braves – in fact, there are some serious eye-popping individual match-ups. Marcell Ozuna (.545 ISO), Travis d’Arnaud (.778 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (.400) all hammer high-velocity fastballs from lefties with Ozuna and TDA both sporting massive 100+ EV on average.

Now if you are following along – what this now means is we are fading the chalk (at least in what I expect will be the chalk) – as Tyler Glasnow and Dodgers bats with a 5.5 IRT are likely going to be the core build for many.

It is a two-game slate – and if that is going to be the chalk where picking between Max Muncy or Cody Bellinger as my HR call will be how I get different – well, I think your path to really separate from the field becomes minuscule.

So let’s attack this different – can we stack up the Braves/Astros and use Zack Greinke/Kyle Wright as our arms?

Grienke is not the same arm he used to be however this is still an arm with a 29% K rate against LHB this season and he will take on a Rays projected line-up with a 29% K rate and 5-6 lefties in it. My guess – Greinke is the SP2 chalk alongside Glasnow.

Kyle Wright will likely be the lowest owned arm on this slate against the Dodgers and their lofty Vegas total and while his metrics against lefties are the risk – with 5 RHB in the lineup, why are we so quick to dismiss the 53%GB rates, .118 ISO and 23% K rate against righties in 2020?

Now “managing” his way through lefties like Seager, Muncy and Bellinger is a tall task but with how the Dodgers space out the R/L in their line-up – I think there is a path for him to use his full arsenal to work through this Dodgers chalky attack.

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Here is how I see today playing out ownership wise. Glasnow is the massive chalk alongside the Dodgers bats.

Greinke/Urias likely garner similar ownership as the SP2 – and I lean towards getting more because using the Rays cheap bats (against Greinke) are a path to getting Glasnow/Dodger based builds.

So going with the Astros bats becomes the ultimate leverage against Glasnow but if Urias is a popular SP2 – you can almost attack the clear pitching chalk in one fell swoop by going Astros/Braves.

Could be our last slate today my friends so let’s take a stand and try to PIVOT one more time! Go Astros!

Time to dig in – let’s get it today!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

5 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks – Opening Day Arms

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday Slate Breakdown:

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday Slate Breakdown:

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday Slate Breakdown:

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday Slate Breakdown:

Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

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