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WGC-Workday Championship: Initial Picks

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written by Sia

The PGA Tour travels to the opposite coast this week for the first of four Florida events.  We have an interesting twist as this is the first time the Concession course will be played on the PGA Tour, and therefore, we have no course history to utilize (other than a few in this field who played this course in the NCAA championship 6 years ago).  We will focus on the typical SG metrics and recent form and we will perhaps take a few more chances than normal at this no-cut event.  Stay tuned for much more content from the Win Daily team, including our Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the WGC-Workday Championship.

Jon Rahm (11100) – He was excellent last week and really made a charge on Sunday but wasn’t enough to catch the leaders.  One of the best in the world T2G and in good form.

Xander Shaufffele (10800) – I’m hoping ownership is down on Xander as a result of his underwhelming finish at Riviera and associated lack of coverage.  His 15th place finish was mostly a result of being bad OTT on Thursday and bad with the putter on Sunday.  Other than that, the ball striking and game was great and Xander is very close to winning a tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau (9900) – Bryson had some rust on Thursday at Riviera, but he rounded into form on Friday.  He was atrocious with the putter on Friday losing almost 3 strokes, but he was best in the field T2G that very same day.  I see the putter regressing to the mean and I’m hoping the T2G stays true.

Tyrrell Hatton (9600) – He’s simply a great golfer.  We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s been racking up solid finishes overseas (6th at The Saudi International, 22nd at Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 1st at Abu Dhabi).  Great with the irons and the all-around game is there.

Viktor Hovland (9400) – Don’t be shocked if this guy is considered one of the best in the world at some point within the next couple of years.  His ball striking is impeccable and his short game continues to improve and this is great value at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8100) – We are looking for upside, particularly in no-cut events, and Niemann flashed that upside for the first two rounds at Riviera and has also flashed it this year with 2nd place finishes at the Sony and the Sentry.  Don’t worry about his blow up round of a 78 last Saturday as that’s going to happen in brutal wind conditions to the best of golfers.

Will Zalatoris (8000) – This is a very good price for a great ball striker who has been consistently finishing well in stacked fields.  This week he doesn’t need to worry about lack of course history/experience because almost nobody in this field has played here.

Ryan Palmer (7200) – Another misprice for Mr. Palmer that you probably need to take advantage of.  Palmer’s betting odds are 55 to 1, which is shorter than almost everyone in the 8k range.  What does that mean?  It means the sportsbooks value him as a golfer in the upper 8k class.  Grab the value.

Abraham Ancer (6800) – Missed cut last week but keep in mind he had zero prep time as he was stuck in Texas.  Ancer’s recent form is pretty solid with the exception of a bad round here or there.  The one bad round won’t hurt him too much in this no-cut event and he has enough upside to justify at this price.

Rasmus Hojgaard (6700) – Probably will be a nice pivot off of some of the other more popular European golfers in this range.  Hojgaard has been very solid lately with 6th, 9th and 25th place finish in his last three tournaments overseas.  He’s also flashed the ability to go low (final round of Saudi International he shot a 62).

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify and to our YouTube page. 

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PGA

The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.  This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well.  You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual.  This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success.  More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world.  His ball striking and short game are excellent.  His price point isn’t cost prohibitive.  Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one.  If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category.  Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments).  Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three.  He has a great track record as you might expect. 

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page.  Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T.  Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee.  He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut.  But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that.  Plenty of upside at this price. 

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here.  I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish).  With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories. 

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately.  He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments.  Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track. 

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly).  KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management.  Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore.  He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5).  He also finished 7th here in 2019. 

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25.  Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks.  Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter.  Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on.  See you tonight.

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PGA

Sony Open: Initial Picks

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written by Sia

We are back to a full field event here in Hawaii, but this course is not a bombers paradise like last week.  Instead you will want to be accurate OTT and really solid on APP (APP will be my key stat this week).  Below are my initial picks but me and Joel Schrek (@draftmasterflex) will be breaking down the entire slate of golfers tonight at 8:30 EST on the Win Daily YouTube channel and on our Twitter page @windailysports.  Also, stay tuned to the numerous articles, projections and related information coming up within the next couple of days from the Win Daily Golf Team.  Let’s get after it and breakdown my Sony Open initial picks.

Webb Simpson (11000) – Not an impressive finishing position last week, but when you consider he just came off of a bout with Covid it wasn’t too bad.  Webb’s trouble spot was OTT last week but that shouldn’t be a problem for him on this relatively short course.  It’s a perfect course fit and he’s finished Top 5 his last two at Sony.

Collin Morikawa (10600) – Had a tough Sunday but was otherwise pretty great last weekend.  The ball striking is where it needs to be and it will be Collin’s putting that will decide if he’s worth this pricetag.  I think this is the type of field where Collin can get another win in his young PGA Tour tenure.

Sungjae Im (9800) – Speaking of a problematic putter, that is literally the only thing Sungjae did not have going for him last weekend.  He was up to his usual ways in the ball striking department, but couldn’t do it with the short stick.  He still managed to finish 5th last week.  His track record at this course is middling as he’s finished right around the Top 20 his only two times here.  I think we’re catching Sungjae in a good spot.

Zach Johnson (8500) – I’m not normally a ZJ guy, but it’s hard to deny that this course sets up well for him.  He has also been striking the ball very well as of late so I think he has the requisite upside to potentially contend this week.  He has performed very well on this course in the past outside of one MC in 2019.

Charles Howell III (8000) – More like Chalkel Howell III, amiright?  I may end up fading Howell if his ownership percentage goes full Lanto Griffin on us, but we will have to wait and see.  Truth is he has been great at Sony and his recent form has also been solid.  A relatively short hitter who can get hot with the irons should be just fine here.

Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Speaking of hot with the irons, I’m a big fan of this guy and played him a lot last year.  His putting is always the question mark but his ball striking usually is not.

Russell Knox (7400) – Much like Howell, this is a good course fit for Knox and his game has been rounding into form as of late.  He’s got three Top 25’s in his last 4 tournaments and hasn’t missed a cut in his last four at the Sony.

Tom Hoge (7300) – A former ‘secret weapon’ who also sets up well for this course.  When Hoge’s irons are on he is a legitimate threat to take a peak atop the leaderboard and I’m willing to take a chance on him at this price.

Kyle Stanley (7200) – A good ball striker who is very under the radar because he just can’t seem to put the entire game together.  This course suits him and he’ll need to get hot with the putter to make some real noise, but I like the value here.  Stanley had a MC here last year but prior to that was typically landing in the Top 25.  Not much by way of win equity but he could have some big scoring rounds. 

Doug Ghim (6900) – Ghim is another guy that rates out really well in the ball striking department, but should have low ownership due to some middling finishes as of late and a MC here last year. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to our Discord chat.

Thanks for checking out my Sony Open initial picks. See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast. 

Also make sure to check out our pga projection model!

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PGA

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

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written by Sia

The RSM Classic: Initial Picks

After a monster week for the entire Win Daily family, we arrive at the RSM Classic. We have a full field and a lot of good names to choose from across all price ranges. Looking for ball striking metrics as usual, but the primary focus will be on accuracy. I’ll be taking a close look at APP, accuracy off the tee, ARG and putting (in that order). Tune into the Win Daily PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the golfers below and many more. Let’s get to The RSM Classic: Initial Picks.

Webb Simpson (11200) – The most talented golfer in the field who happens to have a great course history and is in great form.  It’s expensive but it’s worth it.

Russell Henley (10100) – Tough to swallow at this price but he’s been great since the restart and exceptional on APP.  With that said, he was as mere 29th in Houston and has missed the cut at the RSM the last two efforts here.  I like Henley, but won’t be afraid to pay up for Webb.

Corey Conners (8900) – He’s played this course twice and has decent results but nothing spectacular.  More importantly, Conners has been in great form with five made cuts in a row and a 10th place finish last week in Augusta. 

Doc Redman (8000) – A great ball striker who was underwhelming last time we saw him in Houston.  He played this course last year and finished a respectable 23rd.  His ARG game has been flat out bad and that may cost him here, but I’m going to lean on the ball striking.

Brendan Todd (7800) – Usually thought of as a reliable option, Todd has been bad lately and that includes missed cuts in Augusta and Bermuda.  I won’t have a lot of shares of Todd but he actually is a good course fit so I’m going to bank on him turning things around this week at low ownership.

Austin Cook (7500) – My Secret Weapon at Houston and he finished a redeemable 24th.  Prior to that he was 2nd at the Shriners and has been great OTT and on APP.  Also, no stranger to a hot putter.  Oh, and by the way, he won it all here in 2018.

Harold Varner III (7400) – Likely a popular option in this range as this appears to be a bit of a misprice.  A good ball striker that has been relatively hot of late (last three 15th, MC, 13th).  He finished 23rd last time he played here in 2019.

Joel Dahmen (7400) – Last time we saw Dahmen he finished 8th at the Zozo and prior to that he wasn’t very good.  Add to that he hasn’t been very good at this event and it seems like he’s a bad option, but he’s typically a great ball striker and can get hot quickly. 

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He is very hit or miss at this event and his ball striking hasn’t been great lately, but I’m going with pedigree here and I expect Tringale to turn things around.

James Hahn (6900) – Was on him in Houston and he didn’t really pay off with a 50th place finish, but prior to that he had three Top 10’s in a row.  Ball striking numbers during that time have been great. 

Doug Ghim (6700) – I was on Ghim in Bermuda and he paid off big with a 14th place finish.  He’s got three Top 25’s over his last four events and he’s been great on APP and ARG.  I hope he’s not popular because this is big time value. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Check Discord

See you all tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Youtube channel and the Win Daily podcast.

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PGA

The Masters: Initial Picks

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written by Sia

The Masters: Initial Picks

The moment many of us have been waiting for is upon us.  We have finally arrived at Augusta and the Win Daily team will be blitzing you with content over the next 24 hours.  Join us tonight for the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST and stay tuned for more articles from the Win Daily PGA crew.  And of course, join us in Discord as the conversation is likely to move at a rapid pace over the next couple of days.  As for the strokes gained metrics that I will be emphasizing, they go as follows:  APP, OTT, PUTT, ARG.  Most people have those first two metrics swapped, but I’m a sucker for a good APP game so there you have it (I have them ranked pretty much even).  I will also be putting a premium on Masters experience/course history. So here are my Masters: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10500) – Last time we saw Rahm he was finishing 2nd at the Zozo, but more importantly he’s been Top 10 at the Masters the last two times he played (9th and 4th).  It is very difficult to distinguish the Top 5 in this field because they all grade out well, but I’m rolling with Rahm and DJ.

Dustin Johnson (10000) – He has been amazing on APP and he’s in great form.  Not sure what else you need in terms of being convinced, but he’s got three TOP 10’s in his last three efforts at Augusta (2nd, 10th, 4th).  Seems like a very reasonable price as well.  Fire him up.

Xander Schauffele (9800) – Another guy with great form and good course history, albeit limited (2nd and 50th in his only two times at Augusta).  Xander isn’t dominant OTT but his T2G game is fantastic and he can get hot with the putter more often than most.  He also hasn’t missed a cut in his last nine majors.

Patrick Reed (9200) – Speaking of guys who can get hot with the putter, Reed has been automatic with the short stick over the last few tournaments.  As for the complete game, he has everything you need to win at Augusta and the proof of that comes by way of the green jacket hanging in his closet.  Reed shows up at majors and he should be dialed in this week. 

Jason Day (8400) – This guy can get hot or cold any given week, but he’s been relatively hot at the Masters over the last few years (5th, 20th, 22nd, 10th in his last four and made 9 of 10 cuts).  The form was great last week in Houston with a 7th place finish.  I won’t be overweight on Day, but I’ll have a few shares.

Louis Oosthuizen (7900) – Not a long hitter but plays great in big spots and has a pretty good track record here.  His upside seems to be limited given he doesn’t grade out super well in any SG metrics relative to others in the field, but again, plays well in the big ones, as recently illustrated by his 3rd place finish at The U.S. Open in 2020. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (7600) – Good recent form and good track record at Augusta.  A guy that can also play well if the elements come into play.  Fitzpatrick has been good OTT and APP over the last four tournaments (he did have a missed cut at the U.S. Open but that was a tournament where he was uncharacteristically bad with the putter).

Kevin Kisner (7100) – A Steven Polardi special and a guy who has never missed the cut at the Masters.  I’m going with pedigree on this one as he isn’t necessarily a great course fit and he hasn’t been great OTT as of late, but my Masters experience bias is certainly in play here.  Get more on Kisner in our Discord chat from Steven.

Ian Poulter (7000) – Missed the cut at the last major (U.S. Open), but coming off a 12th at the CJ Cup and a 12th place finish at the Masters last year.  Poulter classically shows up for these events and I like the upside at this price. 

Corey Conners (6600) – Has made four cuts in a row and made the cut last year in his inaugural shot at the Masters.  Conners comes in with good form and checks the box with at least some course experience.  He’s also been good lately OTT and on APP.

Justin Harding (6300) – Not much recent good form to go off of here, but if you’re looking for a big punt play, you may as well take a guy who finished tied for 12th last year. 

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5% owned) – We struck with Austin Cook last week.  Join us in Discord tomorrow for this week’s Secret Weapon.

See you on the Livestream tonight and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports podcast and YouTube page. Thank you for enjoying my Masters: Initial Picks, stay tuned for my Masters Best Bets article which will be out on Win Daily Sports Wednesday!

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PGA

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks

Another 78 person field and another opportunity to jam in upside at a no-cut event.  We will bring you much more in the next 24 hours with articles and our expert chat, and of course, the Tuesday PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST @windailysports on Twitter and YouTube and Twitch.  We have a relatively short course this week with five Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.  I’d focus on birdie makers and APP here but you will also want to factor in accuracy OTT as there are some trouble spots on most of the holes. Here are my ZOZO Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (11000) – The entire team was on Xander last week and that worked out just fine, but this week I’m going to pivot from Xander to Rahm in the elite range.  Rahm was average last week (17th) and hopefully that keeps his ownership reasonable. 

Justin Thomas (10600) – Another guy I like in the elite tier.  His APP game is best in the field and last week’s 12th place finish felt like a tune-up.  If he can get the putter going at all you will see him contending late Sunday afternoon.

Patrick Reed (9600) – Haven’t heard from him much lately but let’s not forget the last time we did see him as at the U.S. Open where he finished 13th.  He’s also enjoyed great success on comparable courses. 

Viktor Hovland (9200) – One of my top guys last week and he quietly finished in 12th. He gained over 3 strokes ball striking last week and even gained strokes ARG which is his alleged weakness. 

Bubba Watson (8700) – Literally the first time I’ve ever had Bubba in a write-up, but the guy has earned it.  His ball striking has been elite lately and it’s looking like his ownership percentage will be below 10% which is notable given the price range and the number of players in the field. 

Joaquin Niemann (8400) – Can go hot and cold but was great last week and has the type of upside you want.   This is a great price for a guy in great form and a great course fit.  I may sprinkle some on Joaquin for an outright win.

Russell Henley (8100) – I didn’t have as many shares as I should have last week and it cost me.   He continues to be priced low and therefore needs to be considered as his ball striking has been great lately.  Normally I’d suggest his upside is limited, but that’s hard to argue as he finished 3rd last week.  Be careful here as he picked up a ton of strokes putting last week.  Still, even if putter cools down, the value is good at this price.

Sebastian Munoz (7200) – A pretty low price for a guy that has been making cuts at an incredible rate and who has the ability to finish Top 10 as he proved last week.  We may be looking at a guy who is ready to consistently be in the conversation, so I’m going to jump aboard while he’s still cheap.

Joel Dahmen (6500) – In a no-cut event I’m looking for a guy who can string a very low round together and Dahmen is that guy.  His blow up spot won’t cost you too much relative to the scoring potential he has all four days.

Secret Weapon (Sub 6k/Less than 5% owned) – see you in Discord.

See everyone tonight for the Tuesday Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and YouTube channel!

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PGA

U.S. Open Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

U.S. Open Initial Picks

Don’t look now, but the U.S. Open Championship is already here. This is going to be a very tough course and the rough will not be pleasant. My focus for the U.S. Open Initial Picks will be on approach, accuracy off the tee and short game (ARG and PUTT). We are not going to have super low scores in this one so keep finishing position in that back of your mind as that will be more important than most tournaments. We will be on LIVE at 8:30 tonight (Tuesday) to breakdown the entire slate @windailysports on Twitter, Twitch and YouTube. We’ll also have more articles on WinDailySports.com!

Jon Rahm (11000) – It’s pretty clear that Rahm checks all the boxes and he’s my favorite in this elite range.  OTT game is outstanding and it’s rare when his irons fail him (it does happen, but it’s rare).  My favorite part about Rahm on such a difficult course is he appears to have his temperament under control.

Webb Simpson (9700) – If you’re looking for a great APP game and a great short game, you’ve found it in Webb.  He’s not long off the tee but I’m looking for accuracy more than I am looking for length this week.  Don’t get me wrong, length will be important as well this week, but I need my guys in the fairway as the rough is going to be big trouble.

Daniel Berger (9200) – Mr. Under the Radar.  All he does is show up and find himself in the mix on Sundays.  There isn’t really a weak spot with Berger and his short game should pay dividends this week.  Berger also picks up strokes on the field on this putting surface.

Jason Day (8800) – Hasn’t been good his last couple of tournaments and that should keep ownership down.  He finished 4th at the PGA which was also a very difficult course and I have no issue taking a chance on the pedigree.

Adam Scott (8700) – He hasn’t been super impressive since his return at the PGA, but if you consider he waited the longest of all the top golfers to resume play, his numbers don’t look bad.  This week I’m including a lot of golfers that have the pedigree and that can handle the ups and downs of a very tough course.

Paul Casey (7900) – Your classic boom or bust play, but the boom has been evident this year and I’m happy to have some shares.  Casey can be very shaky with the short game, but his OTT and APP metrics grade out very well.

Matthew Wolff (7700) – Finished 4th at the PGA and 16th at BMW and is certainly your best bargain of the Morikawa, Hovland and Wolff trio.  He’s going to really need to be dialed in with the irons as the ARG game isn’t good.  I won’t be heavy on Wolff but the upside is there so certainly a few shares.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – The strokes gained metrics don’t look great but his finishing positions at tough courses look fantastic.  Not a guy I’m usually on, but when majors come around he’s worth a look.

Sungjae Im (7500) – Speaking of boom or bust.  Sungjae is one of those golfers you don’t want a lot of shares of, but you do want some.  He gains strokes in all metrics, but he’ll need to avoid the blow up spot.

Brendon Todd (7400) – Always seems to be dialed in with his irons which hopefully makes up for him being short off the tee.  He finds himself in contention too often to be ignored at this price.

Kevin Streelman (6700) – Gained strokes everywhere at the Safeway Open last week.  Streelman has his issues OTT at times and can go ice cold with the putter but you are definitely getting good value with Streelman in this bottom end range.  This also happens to be his best putting surface.

Chez Reavie (6900) – Very accurate OTT and has been excellent on APP (picked up 7 strokes on the field last week and 3 at the Northern Trust).  Coming in good form and checking the necessary boxes puts Reavie as a very good bargain.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/<5% ownership) – Tune into Discord.

See everyone in Discord and don’t forget to watch the Livestream and subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast.

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PGA

The Memorial: Initial DFS Picks

stephenbrown764@gmail.com
written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

Hopefully you have already reviewed The Range and are ready to start attacking lineups.  Below are my initial picks in this loaded Memorial field.  As subscribers know, these picks are further developed during the week in Discord, the Livestream and with further articles from our golf team which will isolate even more golfers to consider in cash and GPP.  Please monitor the ownership projections that we deliver in Discord and that are put out by Steven early Wednesday evening.  Let’s get after it.

Collin Morikawa (10000) – There are so many arguments that can be made for golfers in this elite price range and if I had to pick an honorable mention, it would be Bryson (certain to have a few shares of Bryson as well) but Morikawa appears to be the safer and more automatic option of the group.  I just can’t really believe how unflappable this guy is and what he showed me on Sunday was that his next golf shot is just another shot.  He is on auto-pilot and that’s what I prefer to fly with this weekend. 

Patrick Cantlay (9800) – Wasn’t great to start at Workday but started to really catch fire on the weekend.  Given that he has only played two tournaments since the restart I think we can legitimately attribute the slow start last week to some rust, and now we may have a guy that is ready to fire for all four rounds.  The T2G numbers are outstanding and he won here last year and was 4th the year before (7th last week at Workday after that slow start).

Jon Rahm (9300) – I’d like to think Rahm found something last Sunday as he finally woke up and fired 8 birdies and an eagle (with two bogeys).  His paltry 27th place finish will keep ownership down but we will have to monitor that as we head toward Thursday.  Rahm hasn’t met his potential yet this year, but at 9300 we are definitely getting some value for a guy that is consistently thought of as a Top 5 golfer in the world. 

Daniel Berger (8700) – There is a lot emerging talent in golf and Berger is clearly near the head of that class.  He has been absent the last few weeks but he came out firing post-pandemic with a 1st and 3rd place finish.  Add his 4th place at the Honda Classic before the pandemic and he has finished Top 4 in his last three tournaments.  His APP and OTT numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page and he does tend to lean on a hot putter but I love where he is at right now and I put him squarely in the unflappable category along with Morikawa.

Gary Woodland (8600) – Fair to say the relationship between the DFS community and Gary Woodland is squarely in the love/hate department as of late.  With that said, he absolutely dominated the weekend on this track just a few days ago and it all appears to be explained by his change in drivers.  Prior to last week Woodland was losing a laughable amount of strokes OTT and it appears that he has corrected that.  This may be a case of recency bias on my part, but I can’t ignore the success with the club change so I’ll go ahead and put Woodland in the love column.

Abraham Ancer (8500) – If there were such thing as a golf-crush, I’ve got it in Double-A.  His history at The Memorial ain’t great with only a 65th and 57th over the last two years, but his ball striking is prime.  He’s finished Top 15 in his last three events.  He’s coming off of a two week layoff and I’m perfectly ok with that as I’m guessing his focal point this month was to be ready for The Memorial.  Gains in every strokes gained category, and particularly on approach.  Be weary of some chalk here, but still a solid cash and GPP play (he’s an outright play for me as well at 45 to 1).

Sergio Garcia (7800) – We know the ball striking can be elite with Sergio and we know he has plenty of upside, which includes a 5th place finish at the RBC.  Most of Sergio’s issues reveal themselves with the putter and I’m always willing to take a risk on a guy who has good GIR but needs to get hot with the putter (much like Corey Conners who I will also have a few shares of).

Harris English (7300) – This feels like an easy call at this price which is why I’m weary of it, but I respect the SG metrics too much here to be off of Harris English.  He gains OTT and on APP and can get hot with the putter.  He’s only played two tournaments since the restart and that included a chalky missed cut and a nice 17th place finish bounce back at the RBC.  Another good value play here.

Keegan Bradley (7200) – Believe it or not, Keegan led the field last week in APP.  Not exactly savvy with the putter and finished a disappointing 39th last week. If he can even moderately replicate what he did on APP and have couple hot days with the putter, you’ve got yourself a gem in Keegan.   His track record at Memorial is up and down but it includes three Top 25 finishes in the last 5 years and two Top 10 finishes in 2015 and 2016.

Lucas Glover (7100) – A great ball striker who can also drive the ball.  Glover checks most of the boxes, including the fact that he’s finished within the Top 25 in his last 4 tournaments.  In a field like this, the upside is going to be limited with Glover but he can be a cut maker and a birdie maker on the weekend.

Bernd Wiesberger (6600) – When you get down to this price range you need to look for outliers and perhaps some narrative building.  Bernd is a solid player with some solid wins under his belt, albeit on the Euro Tour.  With that said, winning matters in fields like this because I think his expectation will be that he can hang with the big boys.  He’s solid OTT and on APP and will need to have a hot putter to make the cut and do some weekend damage.  Solid punt play here.

Troy Merritt (6600) – On him last week and it paid off as he finished 22nd.   He also finished 8th at the Rocket Mortgage and finished 17th here last year.  Feels like we have a golfer who has found his stroke and is worthy of a couple shares in this punt-play range.

Again, stay tuned for much more from the Win Daily Golf Teamand tune into the Livestream tonight as I will talk golf (and much more) withMichael Rasile.  And please subscribe tothe Win Daily Podcast.  See you inDiscord!

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