What a year we are having! Daniel Hillier secured yet another victory from our selections over on the DP World Tour. The 80/1 long-shot secured the British Masters with a stunning final 9 holes, including going eagle-birdie-eagle before a clutch par putt on the 18th. Let’s look for another winner with our John Deere Classic picks.
Hillier made an obvious selection. He had finished 3rd and 5th in two of his three most recent appearances. Realistically, he was in a position to win one if not both of those tournaments. But, the secret sauce actually came from a 2021 Challenge Tour event. The 2021 British Challenge was hosted on the same course at The Belfry. Obviously, it was an easier setup than the DP World Tour tournaments played at the same venue. Hillier finished 14th that week. However, Hillier was the best player in the field over the last three rounds. Likely this was missed by many, but not when we are @DeepDiveGolf!
Course Analysis for our John Deere Classic Picks
TPC Deere Run plays host to this event, as it has since 2000. This short 7,289 yard par-71 completes what should really be coined the wedge, putting contest, birdie-fest swing. A low winning score of between -20 to -25 is likely this week.
The course offers up very little defense. A quick peruse through past leaderboards makes clear driving accuracy is at a premium here for our John Deere Classic picks. The 2017 edition, battled between DeChambeau and Rodgers, provides the sole exception. Rough is reasonably thick at 4 inches, although fairways are not that narrow. Players simply need to be providing themselves a multitude of birdie looks here from within 15 feet. That is best achieved through finding the short grass off the tee. It is an essential element to your John Deere Classic picks.
There will be a disproportionate number of shots between 50-100 yards and, particularly, 100-150 yards. This been the same recipe as seen recently at the RBC Canadian Open, Travelers Championship, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. Over 60% of shots are from 100-200 yards. This is further emphasized given the majority of approach shots over 200 yards will occur on the par 5s and two of the par 3s being over 200 yards.
I will be putting less weighting on putting here than other models. The greens are relatively simple and true, being bentgrass. There is little in the way of undulations or complicated reading here. I’d much rather narrow the focus on fairway finders who will be giving themselves plenty of birdie looks due to elite wedge play.
Key metrics: Driving accuracy, Approach 100-150 yards, Approach 50-100 yards.
Course Comps for TPC Deere Run
Chiefly, a number of recent courses are used as guidance for your John Deere Classic picks. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club all emphasize accuracy and a disproportionate number of wedge shots. They also provide bentgrass within their green complexes. These courses balance a nice combination of recent form as well as being correlated to what we expect this week.
Other correlations for John Deere Classic picks are at Waialae Golf Club, Sedgefield Country Club, and the American Express tournament. All emphasize driving accuracy and a high number of wedge shots. Therefore, as Jon Rahm infamously described one of the aforementioned, they become a bit of a putting contest.
Weather
There appear to be few pitfalls in the weather this week. Winds look relatively consistent across both Thursday and Friday and any potential weather edge does appear minimal.
There is a small chance of some raining on Wednesday evening. Certainly, this may lead to a softening of conditions for those out Thursday morning. However, the advantage should be minimal. Therefore, this does not factor into our John Deere Classic picks. However, I would provide a small uptick for any lower priced options you are considering in DFS who are going out early in round 1.
John Deere Classic Picks
Suggested Staking
Russell Henley – Your John Deere Classic Picks favourite
3pts E/W +1600 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Chris Kirk
2.5pts E/W +3000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Stephan Jaeger
2pts E/W +4000 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Alex Smalley
2pts E/W +4500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brendon Todd
1pt E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +350 (TAB)
David Lipsky
1pt E/W +12500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And 2pts
Top 20 +450 (Bet365)
Zac Blair
0.5pts +17500 (William Hill with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +600 (Bet365)
And
2pts Top 40 +240 (TAB)
Satoshi Kodaira – Your John Deere Classic Picks best value
0.5pts +35000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1200 (Unibet)
And
2pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365)
Summary
Finally, thank you reading our 2023 John Deere Classic picks. Meanwhile, you can read an article with some insights on my golf analysis process check this link here!
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