Thursday features a five-game night slate that starts at 7:07 PM EST. There are plenty of options and paths we can attack, so let’s get to it!
If you’ve read my articles, you know I am obsessed with Bradish. The kid just continues to pump out quality starts, and has 19.9+ DraftKings points in 6 of his last 7 outings. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a start since August 1st. Tampa Bay rolls into town having heated back up after their midseason slump.
Bradish has faced the Rays twice since late June with pretty solid results. The first was 5 innings of 2-run ball with just four hits allowed and an 8/2 K/BB. The second was 6 innings of 2 run ball with six hits allowed and a 5/1 K/BB.
He is a solid option on a small slate that will almost undoubtedly have a high floor.
Hear me out on this one. Normally we avoid pitchers in Coors Field, and for good reason. That said, Webb is one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, and with only a few games, we need to differentiate. He has faced the Rockies twice in San Fran over the last few months and has a combined stat line of 15 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, and a 14/1 K/BB.
While we can’t necessarily expect those numbers to maintain going from a pitcher’s paradise in Northern California to the high altitude in Colorado, this is a great matchup for Webb.
He has had mixed results over the last month or so, but the upside is undoubtedly present. The Giants are battling for a playoff spot, and this is as close to a must-win as they will face from here on out.
I’m shooting my shot with Webb here.
Ever since King has moved into the rotation, he has been fantastic. Over his last four starts, he has a combined 14 innings of work, allowing just 3 hits, 2 ER, and an 18/1 K/BB. This directly coincides with me dropping him in some dynasty leagues because he wasn’t providing back-end value. But I digress.
The Red Sox have a potent offense, but one that is inconsistent. Last time King faced them, it was a short stint where he allowed 3 ER in just 1.1 innings while walking 2 and striking out 2. The Yankees have been a train wreck this season, but it seems like they may have found something in King as a rotation piece. With a Coors game, I’m going lower salary on the pitching. Neither Gausman or Eovaldi excite me in their matchups. Let’s get some offense.
I mentioned a pitcher in Coors above, but this is the pitcher to target for upside with your bats. Anderson was never a particularly good starter in MLB, and this season has shown more of the same. His last two starts have been particularly bad, allowing 8 ER over 7.1 IP on 10 hits with a 6/4 K/BB.
That is…not good.
The Giants are ready to pounce in this matchup as they continue to fight down the wire for a wild-card spot.
Mitch Haniger, Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, Joc Pederson, and Mike Yaztremski look like solid options here, but this is a lineup in flux at times, and I want all pieces here against the gas can that is Chase Anderson.
Jose Urena seems to be best known for being terrible and for intentionally throwing at Ronald Acuna Jr. in his career. He made his return from the IL last week, and wasn’t particularly impressive, but did allow just a single run in 4 innings of work against the Tigers.
The Twins are inexplicably in a playoff spot due to how terrible the AL Central has been this season. That said, there is upside to be had against Urena. Over his career, he has really struggled with LHB, so I’ll be prioritizing Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, the switch-hitting Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner. Alex Kiriloff is another lefty, and the list goes on with this lineup. There are a ton of strikeouts to be had against the Twins, but I’m not betting on Urena to have success at any point. Give me the lefty Twins and let’s move on to the next one.
This one is a bit off the wall, but that’s why we like it. Maeda has seemed to completely lose his strikeout upside, and has just an 8/4 K/BB over his last three starts (14.1 IP). The White Sox still have some bats that can do damage, and they are my contrarian stack of the night.
Luis Robert Jr. is the obvious top choice, but Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, Andrew Benintendi, and even the “knocked-out” king Tim Anderson are in play here. I think he will continue to throw strikes and fool nobody, and this is a lineup at potentially low ownership that can take advantage. It may be a lost season for the Sox, but they can at least make us some cash and go down swinging.
I have some low-owned potentials for you for Thursday, so let’s get this party started! Time to roll into the weekend on a high note!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday has no day slate, but we have a solid six-game slate for the evening starting at 6:40 ET. Let’s find some ways to grab some cash as we head into the weekend.
Castillo is the most talented pitcher on the slate, and it isn’t particularly close. He owns a 3.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season with a 183/40 K/BB over 169.1 innings of work this season. He takes on a Rays team that started the season on fire, but hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball of late.
Over the last 30 days, they are bottom 10 in K rate (23.6%), bottom 10 in BB rate (7.6%), but still have an elite power/speed combo.
That said, I’m siding with Castillo on this short slate. He has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last eight starts, although he didn’t fare too well against the Rays last time they faced off. He served up 6 R (4 ER) over six innings of work, but did have a 6/0 K/BB.
I’m siding with the talent here.
On a short slate, we have to differentiate, and Assad actually feels like a worthwhile risk in this spot. He has been nothing short of tremendous over his last two outings. He held the Reds and Pirates to just 1 ER over 15 innings of work with a 14/3 K/BB.
Granted, even as a Reds fan I can admit that this D-Backs lineup is more of a problem. This is also a a lineup that has been devoid of power over the last month, with only the Giants and Guardians hitting less home runs over that span.
Assad has had command issues at times, with just a 67/33 K/BB on the season in 87 innings on the mound. I usually steer clear of command issues, but when we factor in price, it is hard not to justify taking the shot here, even against a fairly patient D-Backs lineup.
Fried looks like he is back to his old ways, and that is bad news for the train wreck that is the Cardinals lineup. He will have to navigate lefty-mashers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, but outside of those two, nobody scares me in this lineup.
Fried has been electric over his last two outings against the Dodgers and Giants, allowing a total of 2 ER with an 18/4 K/BB over 13 innings of work.
Let’s sit back and enjoy while Fried dominates the Cardinals during the next step of their embarrassment of a season.
The only thing better than the worst pitcher in baseball being on the slate is the fact that he is facing the best lineup in baseball (Get over it, Dodgers, the Braves are the clear top lineup). Wainwright has totaled the following DraftKings points over his last 10 starts:
6.9
-0.3
7.3
-19.2
-3.9
5.5
9.7 (WOW)
-0.5
-11.7
-14.5
We talk about this all the time. Any other name would have been forced into an early retirement. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcelo Ozuna, Michael Harris, I want them all. Whoever I can fit from the Braves side will be a priority for me. Fireworks incoming.
The Cubs have been one of the best lineups in baseball since the All-Star Break, and Ryne Nelson, quite simply put, is not very good. He has allowed 12 ER over his last two starts against the Twins and Padres over just six innings of work.
Cody Bellinger is the clear top priority here for me, but Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Christopher Morel aren’t far behind. Let’s take advantage of a hot lineup against a struggling pitcher. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley again, watch out. Nelson has served up 22 gopher balls already in 2023.
The Angels are in a great spot against Quantrill. We talked above about how bad Adam Wainwright was, but Cal hasn’t been much better. He has negative DK points in four of his last five outings. Not good.
The Angels are ready to tee off here, despite the fact that their lineup has been struggling of late without Ohtani and Trout.
They look like a solid cheap stack and filler team on this short slate.
Brandon Drury, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Monica, Noah Schaunel, and Mike Moustakas are my main targets here. Get yourself some value with the Halos.
Thursday features the Braves against Adam Wainwright. What a great night for fireworks. Let’s make some cash!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
With two slates on tap, the day slate beginning at 12:20 boasts seven games, so we will be focusing there. Offense has been wild the last few days, let’s find ourselves some upside on both sides of the diamond for the day slate!
There are some very good pitchers in tough spots today, and when we factor in matchups, Lopez is one of the top arms for me. He inexplicably struggled last time out against Oakland, but facing a struggling Mariners lineup should help him right the ship.
On the season, Lopez owns a 4.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with a whopping 145 strikeouts in 116.2 innings of work and just 32 free passes. The Mariners have score more than three runs just twice in their last 8 games and are sputtering like the old Honda in your driveway.
Lopez was done in by two longballs in his last outing, but had previously allowed only two total homers over his last seven starts. The Mariners have some firepower, but he looks like a safe bet to reach a QS, despite being a small underdog against George Kirby. (By the way, Kirby is a fantastic play in his own right)
How can you not love both watching and rostering Snell?The guy is absolutely electric, and now has 139 strikeouts in 103 innings of work. The Padres suck, but that hasn’t been because of Snell. He has allowed zero earned runs in five of his last six and eight of his last 10 starts overall.
During that span, he has double-digit strikeouts in five of seven games. I don’t care who he is facing, I’m all aboard the Snell train for now. It’s hard to argue that he hasn’t been the best pitcher in baseball since late May.
Load him up and don’t look back.
Bryce Harper seems incapable of hitting home runs anymore. All Kyle Schwarber does is hit homers. All Bryson Stott seems to do is hit singles. Trea Turner and JT Realmuto have been inconsistent.
Enter Corbin Burnes. He looked like a former CY Young Winner in his dominant outing against the Reds last time out, striking out 13 over 6 innings of 2-hit ball with just two walks. The Phillies can make him pay if he isn’t finding the strike zone, as they have some patient hitters on their side. That said, I’ll side with Burnes here. I have a feeling that this is the part of the season where he puts it all together again.
The White Sox have been a frustrating team to roster, and Eloy Jimenez is hurt AGAIN. That said, Luis Robert should be a staple in any lineups today, as the White Sox take on an aging fly-ball pitcher. His numbers last season were fluky, but he posted plenty of quality outings.
It seems unlikely he will go deep in this one, but regardless, he doesn’t miss many bats, so I’ll be looking for power bats here. In addition to Robert, Jake Burger, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson, and the stuggling Oscar Colas are my top targets. Beware that this team loves to let you down, but the potential is there.
This might not be a sexy pick, but I’m a fan of the young Tigers here against another aging pitcher who pitchers to contact. Spencer Torkelson has been as hot as the sun, Kerry Carpenter is finally seeing some positive regression, and Riley Greene is poised and ready for a big second half. Javy Baez can be a throw-in, or Miggy works fine as well.
I’m not a believer in Greinke at this stage in his career, and I think the Tigers knock him around a bit.
There aren’t a ton of pitchers we can target easily on this slate, but Cobb fits the bill. His overall numbers are decent, but he allows too many baserunners, and the Reds can make a guy like him pay. Will Benson is scorching, and should be batting higher in the order. Joey Votto and Elly De La Cruz both have crushed the ball (especially Elly last night with possibly the worst batted-ball luck ever), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand is finally up.
Be aware that we could see Votto sit this one out as David Bell rotates through 10 guys for 9 spots. We could see some craziness here, but I’m riding with the Reds today.
Enjoy some Thursday baseball and let’s cash in!
Find the team in the Win Daily Discord channel and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
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