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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 52.5, Chiefs -2.5

After everything that has happened with the Raiders in previous weeks you would think that the would be larger underdogs than a simple 2.5 point dog but the Raiders have played the Chiefs better than any other team in the NFL over the last couple of season and if you take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ stat lines you will see that he has looked downright bad over the last few weeks.

Captains:

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, $18,600:

Usually when you are playing showdowns we would see Mahomes somewhere between 20-30% captain. In those scenarios I would say fade the chalk so you don’t chop the pot with 1,000 of your closest friends. But 13% is a different story. If you want to take a chance on Patty tonight and you feel like he can right the ship we all know what is ceiling is and you likely will not see him as a sub-20% captain again this year.

Pivot: Derek Carr, $15,900 :

As I said above you are not really leveraging any ownership in tonight’s game if you use the top 5 players in captain as they are all within 5% of each other. The question is simply who will outperform who and if you do not think Mahomes will return to form the most logical pivot is Derrick Carr. In his last two contests Carr completed over 71% of his passes, with three touchdowns, and one interception. The Chiefs have been a mess in every facet as of late and Darren Waller should have no issues getting open all day downfield for big plays in this contest.

Contrarian #1: Darren Waller, $14,400 :

Waller has unsurprisingly been a big reason why Carr has performed well against the Chiefs in both of their 2020 matchups getting 7 targets in each, and finishing with with 48 and 88 yards and a touchdown in each contest. Waller is already the favorite target of Carr and now Henry Ruggs is gone opening up a few more targets a game. KC is also one of the absolute worst at defending the tight end position so there is a reasonable chance that he sees 12-15 targets tonight and gets into the endzone at least once.

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 :

Travis Kelce gets the slightest of edges for me over Tyreek Hill as a captain play and I am really nitpicking here. Mahomes has been at his worst over the last three weeks in terms of timing and accuracy. If I have to choose one player to help him get right I want the larger target, who isn’t 65 yards down the field, and easier to time his routes. Mahomes needs to get in a rhythm and I just see that as being an easier feat at the moment with the big guy at tight end. Before you ask, yes you can play Hill at captain. He is still the Cheetah and he can drop 50 on this defense if Mahomes is on his game tonight. But I am not doing anyone any good just listing Mahomes, Kelce, Hill as the top three options in a showdown slate every time they play. We all know what they bring to the table.

Contrarian #3: Josh Jacobs, $13,000 :

Ok I will put one guy in here who is lower owned. KC’s biggest weakness is clearly run defense and this might finally be the week we get a ceiling game from Jacobs if the Raiders attack it. The biggest problem for the last few season is that teams get behind so big that they have to abandon it. That has been far from the case of late. This is a little bit of a gut play for me as Jacobs has not been getting the workload that we were expecting this year but I wanted to give you guys something a little different as Jacobs is right around 4% projected as a captain play tonight and if KC lays another egg you will find yourself in a high leverage position.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14. Flex plays:

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Tyreek Hill
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Travis Kelce
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Josh Jacobs
  7. Hunter Renfrow
  8. Darrel Williams
  9. Mecole Hardman
  10. Kenyan Drake
  11. DeSean Jackson
  12. Harrison Butker
  13. Daniel Carlson
  14. Raiders
  15. Chiefs
  16. Byron Pringle
  17. Foster Moreau
  18. Demarcus Robinson

Kickers and defenses:

With all of the obvious plays priced up there will be a clear need for some salary savings tonight so as far as I am concerned both kickers in this contest are firmly in play and as wild is it is for me to say it, if you are scripting an build where you expect the Chiefs struggles to continue I do not see anything wrong with taking a risk in a spot or two and targeting the Raiders defense. Wow, it feels so wrong saying that but here we are.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 10 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Dalvin Cook is in an amazing position and his ownership is more than reasonable. The Chargers interior is god awful and Dal could easily break free for multiple score this week so he gets the “top of the article treatment” this week just so you all know where I stand. He was initially in the cash section but I don’t think it did him justice for what his output could be this week.

GPP:

When it comes to GPP’s you really have a ton of options. The ownership numbers are a little deceiving. While players like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Austin Ekeler are between 15-18% rostered. If you create a lineup without Mark Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson you are immediately separating yourself from 60% of the field or more. If you do not plan on using either this week you can be pretty “chalky” with your running backs and be fine in GPP’s. So know that this week I may have a play or two in GPP that are over my 8% threshold.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers, ($8400DK/$9,000FD): 5-8%

Christian McCaffrey is back ladies and gentlemen. After seeing him work against the Patriot defense I am ready to throw him in my lineups and to my amazement he is sitting at sub 8% ownership while only 8.4k . The fact that the Panthers had no concerns with giving him 18 targets/touches after a substantial injury that kept him sidelined for 6 weeks is promising. We will not see Christian at anything under 18% for the remainder of the season so jump on this while you have the chance.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ($7,000DK/$8,000FD): 10%-12%

Zeke is way too cheap for a lead back going against a Falcons defense as an 8.5 point favorite. Thanks to our value backs and last weeks knee bruise we are getting him at about an 8% roster discount in what could easily be his biggest game of the year. Zeke has the best odd to score on the game at -165 and has a total yards prop of 101.5 with a lean on the over in the sports betting market. This looks like a prime spot for Zeke to have a ceiling game and is a perfect run back if you are running Kyle Pitts out at tight end.

Aaron Jones, Packers, ($6,900DK/$8,200FD):

As a Packers fan last week just gave me a taste of our future without Aaron Rodgers and it is not got. Jordan Love played so poorly that even our running game was broken against a team that has been unable to stop running backs all season. Now we get an arguably better matchup in the Seahawks, the return of Rodgers, and a discount in terms of price and ownership with Aaron Jones who is projected at right around 12% at sub 7K. My only concern here is Head Coach Matt LaFluer as always but it Jones gets his 15 carries and 5-7 targets today this is a premium spot for Jones to take over and have a huge day.

Also Consider: Alex Collins, (See Cash Game Studs)

WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14

Cash:

Cash is a very clear path at running back this week as both Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb will be absent for their respective teams allowing everyone to pay up at QB, WR, and TE. This week is loaded with games where you will just need to hold your nose and play the value. If you do not want to go with two cheap running backs there are also tons of studs in plus matchups so that you can balance your risk.

D’Ernest Johnson, Browns, ($4,700DK/$5,400FD)

The Patriots defense has been one big mess this season when it comes to defensing the run and both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be absent leaving D’Ernest Johnson to add to his surprising output with no real threat to eat into his workload. In spot situations this season Johnson is averaging 5.3 YPC and has scored twice on only 37 carries. Yes I am aware that 80% of that output came in one game, but that was also the only game that he was not sharing the backfield with a full strength Chubb or Hunt. Of the value backs we have available this week he is my favorite to use in cash games, and at what will be over 60% ownership you can not really afford to fade him in cash games.

Mark Ingram, Saints, ($4,500DK/$5,500FD):

Both Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram are relevant? I seriously feel like we are back in 2015. After this, and seeing Le’veon Bell and Devonta Freeman on the field Thursday I am convinced we are in a temporal bubble. With Trevor Sieman at the helm Ingram should see a heavy workload in the absence of Alvin Kamara against a Titans defense that is pretty mediocre at defending the run. The thing that will benefit him however, and will ironically be the most frustrating thing is that I expect to see a lot of Taysom Hill running read option. That will do two things. First, with defenses accounting for that extra wrinkle, Mark should have several chances to break free in wide open lanes. Second, it will make you pull your hair out because Hill could very well vulture multiple scores from him if they get into goal lone situations where he is best utilized. Of my two value backs, if you wanted to fade one of them Ingram would be my lean because of the Taysom Hill factor.

Najee Harris, ($7,900DK/$9,400FD) :

Najee is a usage monster and is near the top of the NFL in both rushing attempts and receptions for running backs. Now the Steelers will be without Big Ben against a Lions defense that simply can not stop the run. His usage should be insane Sunday with……ahem….Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Detroit will be stacking the box for the entire game but I do not think it much matter with a back like Harris who is capable of catching double digit passes out of the backfield in those situations. He is looking like a lock for 22-25 carries and 5-7 targets as his floor in this contest. Yes the points will be ugly, just do not watch this game and check your lineups in the 4th quarter and you can just be happy with the result.

Also Consider: Austin Ekeler, Jonathon Taylor

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 10 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 11.14. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Well we thought that week 8 was wild, but week 9 decided to say hold my beer. If you are still alive in survivor pools after last week then you probably either won or are very close to winning. We had a few double digit favorites forget to show up, and with my QB1 being Josh Allen last week, you can picture how my Sunday went. I am happy that we can turn the page to a new week here so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. This week is the ultimate test of a “short memory for DFS”, as we have the option of going right back to the well with Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD). Allen saw a price drop of $300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after that abysmal performance in a dream matchup in week nine. The football schedule makers rewarded the Bills with yet another cakewalk of a matchup against the New York Jets for week 10 of the NFL. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, but somehow slot in at 10th in DvP against the quarterback position. I tend to put much more emphasis on the DVOA numbers than I do with DvP, as the position-specific data can be very noisy. At the onset of DFS, the masses would be fading Allen this week due to his performance last week, but these days the field is way too sharp to do something like that. For that reason, I definitely do not expect Allen to fly under the radar, but for a second week in a row he is clearly the top option at the QB position.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD). Dak also draws one of the best matchups that a quarterback can ask for, and this time the DvP numbers back that up as well. The Atlanta Falcons have been a team that we target with opposing offenses for years now, and 2021 is certainly no different. The ATL ranks second to last, just behind the Jets, in total DVOA, while also coming in at 28th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in DvP against opposing signal callers. This game also has the lowest sack potential, which uses the strength of the falcons defensive line compared to the strength of the Cowboys offensive line. This game ranks 28th, or dead last, of the 28 games in week 10 of the NFL when it comes to sack potential. In other words, Dak is expected to have more time in the pocket and be pressured the fewest number of times out of any other quarterback taking the field this week. If you give Dak time with the weapons at his disposal in this Cowboys offense, all I can say is look out.

C. Oddly enough, the first two quarterbacks in this segment were two that I also recommended for week 9. Given that, I will look to go off the board a bit for my QB3 for NFL GPPs by targeting Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD). It is usually not a popular move to pay up at quarterback, so if you agree with that strategy then Heinicke is one of our top options. Taylor and the Washington Football Team offense will be taking on a formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, but this is a defense that forces the opponent to pass the ball. The Bucs rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, while “only” ranking 10th against the pass. Their overall DVOA is 9th, so make no mistake, this is not an easy matchup for Washington and that is why this is really a GPP-only option. The bright spot is that the Bucs only rank 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and that is due to the pass-heavy approach that they force other teams to adhere to. There is definitely a possibility that the WFT totally flop in this spot, but I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful which forces us to have some interest at these current price points across the DFS industry.

The Stacks

A. Even with questions surrounding the availability of one half of this backfield timeshare for the Bills, I still have little to no interest in rostering a Buffalo RB. As far as the receiving options go, Stefon Diggs continues to be our best option here, although he has obviously fallen far below expectations after his stellar season last year. Despite that, he is still able to hit a ceiling game on any given Sunday. Cole Beasley has strengthened his grip on the WR2 position for this team, however Emmanuel Sanders continues to be priced up higher across the DFS industry. Especially on DraftKings where a slot receiver like Beasley garners one full point per reception, as opposed to half a point on FanDuel, I will take the savings and fade Sanders. Maybe this is a bias that I have after rostering Sanders and being handed a 0, but Beasley seems like a much better option on FanDuel as well. Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney are not going to help you takedown a GPP unless they somehow grab two touchdowns, so I will keep my exposure to the two aforementioned wideouts. Even with Mike White back for the Jets, I will be avoiding this poorly coached team with a sub-18 point implied team total this week.

B. It is always more fun to write about a game where both sides of the football are intriguing as opposed to a game like the Bills vs. the Jets where only one team is viable. The Falcons and the Cowboys both have pieces that are extremely appealing from a DFS standpoint. Starting with the Boys, Ezekiel Elliott is a pass catching RB that is priced towards his all-time low as far as his DFS salary is concerned, and I do not expect him to be very popular so he is firmly in play. Michael Gallup will be returning to this pass catching squad that includes two stars in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Gallup will push Cedrick Wilson into irrelevance, and could also take some targets away from both Cooper and Lamb. All three of these guys are in play on Sunday, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a great option at what is a notoriously weak position. On the Falcons side, we have RB/WR/Flex player Cordarrelle Patterson who literally seems to have a floor of upper teens every time that he takes the field. The wideout options are pretty slim, but Russell Gage is potentially viable despite serving up a 0 two weeks ago. Obviously the best option outside of Patterson is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, whose price continues to rise but is still not high enough, especially for this matchup.

C. To close things out we have a game stack where the team opposing our quarterback has a plethora of more appealing options than our quarterback does. On the WFT side of the ball, Terry McLaurin is the de factor option to plug in to nearly all Taylor Heinicke lineups, but a more under the radar play is J.D. McKissic. JDM should be on the field a ton on Sunday given that Washington is expected to trail this game and lose by 9 points. He is a pass catching RB for a reasonable price tag that can really rack up the DK points with his low average depth of target (ADOT) receptions. Ricky Seals-Jones has been a DFS darling due to his cheap price tag over the last few weeks, and he is still available for quite the discount off of the big names at his position. The Buccaneers have quite a few question marks regarding player availability going into the weekend, but any of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski are excellent options depending on who ends up taking the field.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Well we thought that week 8 was wild, but week 9 decided to say hold my beer. If you are still alive in survivor pools after last week then you probably either won or are very close to winning. We had a few double digit favorites forget to show up, and with my QB1 being Josh Allen last week, you can picture how my Sunday went. I am happy that we can turn the page to a new week here so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. This week is the ultimate test of a “short memory for DFS”, as we have the option of going right back to the well with Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD). Allen saw a price drop of $300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after that abysmal performance in a dream matchup in week nine. The football schedule makers rewarded the Bills with yet another cakewalk of a matchup against the New York Jets for week 10 of the NFL. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, but somehow slot in at 10th in DvP against the quarterback position. I tend to put much more emphasis on the DVOA numbers than I do with DvP, as the position-specific data can be very noisy. At the onset of DFS, the masses would be fading Allen this week due to his performance last week, but these days the field is way too sharp to do something like that. For that reason, I definitely do not expect Allen to fly under the radar, but for a second week in a row he is clearly the top option at the QB position.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD). Dak also draws one of the best matchups that a quarterback can ask for, and this time the DvP numbers back that up as well. The Atlanta Falcons have been a team that we target with opposing offenses for years now, and 2021 is certainly no different. The ATL ranks second to last, just behind the Jets, in total DVOA, while also coming in at 28th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in DvP against opposing signal callers. This game also has the lowest sack potential, which uses the strength of the falcons defensive line compared to the strength of the Cowboys offensive line. This game ranks 28th, or dead last, of the 28 games in week 10 of the NFL when it comes to sack potential. In other words, Dak is expected to have more time in the pocket and be pressured the fewest number of times out of any other quarterback taking the field this week. If you give Dak time with the weapons at his disposal in this Cowboys offense, all I can say is look out.

C. Oddly enough, the first two quarterbacks in this segment were two that I also recommended for week 9. Given that, I will look to go off the board a bit for my QB3 for NFL GPPs by targeting Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD). It is usually not a popular move to pay up at quarterback, so if you agree with that strategy then Heinicke is one of our top options. Taylor and the Washington Football Team offense will be taking on a formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, but this is a defense that forces the opponent to pass the ball. The Bucs rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, while “only” ranking 10th against the pass. Their overall DVOA is 9th, so make no mistake, this is not an easy matchup for Washington and that is why this is really a GPP-only option. The bright spot is that the Bucs only rank 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and that is due to the pass-heavy approach that they force other teams to adhere to. There is definitely a possibility that the WFT totally flop in this spot, but I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful which forces us to have some interest at these current price points across the DFS industry.

The Stacks

A. Even with questions surrounding the availability of one half of this backfield timeshare for the Bills, I still have little to no interest in rostering a Buffalo RB. As far as the receiving options go, Stefon Diggs continues to be our best option here, although he has obviously fallen far below expectations after his stellar season last year. Despite that, he is still able to hit a ceiling game on any given Sunday. Cole Beasley has strengthened his grip on the WR2 position for this team, however Emmanuel Sanders continues to be priced up higher across the DFS industry. Especially on DraftKings where a slot receiver like Beasley garners one full point per reception, as opposed to half a point on FanDuel, I will take the savings and fade Sanders. Maybe this is a bias that I have after rostering Sanders and being handed a 0, but Beasley seems like a much better option on FanDuel as well. Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney are not going to help you takedown a GPP unless they somehow grab two touchdowns, so I will keep my exposure to the two aforementioned wideouts. Even with Mike White back for the Jets, I will be avoiding this poorly coached team with a sub-18 point implied team total this week.

B. It is always more fun to write about a game where both sides of the football are intriguing as opposed to a game like the Bills vs. the Jets where only one team is viable. The Falcons and the Cowboys both have pieces that are extremely appealing from a DFS standpoint. Starting with the Boys, Ezekiel Elliott is a pass catching RB that is priced towards his all-time low as far as his DFS salary is concerned, and I do not expect him to be very popular so he is firmly in play. Michael Gallup will be returning to this pass catching squad that includes two stars in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Gallup will push Cedrick Wilson into irrelevance, and could also take some targets away from both Cooper and Lamb. All three of these guys are in play on Sunday, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a great option at what is a notoriously weak position. On the Falcons side, we have RB/WR/Flex player Cordarrelle Patterson who literally seems to have a floor of upper teens every time that he takes the field. The wideout options are pretty slim, but Russell Gage is potentially viable despite serving up a 0 two weeks ago. Obviously the best option outside of Patterson is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, whose price continues to rise but is still not high enough, especially for this matchup.

C. To close things out we have a game stack where the team opposing our quarterback has a plethora of more appealing options than our quarterback does. On the WFT side of the ball, Terry McLaurin is the de factor option to plug in to nearly all Taylor Heinicke lineups, but a more under the radar play is J.D. McKissic. JDM should be on the field a ton on Sunday given that Washington is expected to trail this game and lose by 9 points. He is a pass catching RB for a reasonable price tag that can really rack up the DK points with his low average depth of target (ADOT) receptions. Ricky Seals-Jones has been a DFS darling due to his cheap price tag over the last few weeks, and he is still available for quite the discount off of the big names at his position. The Buccaneers have quite a few question marks regarding player availability going into the weekend, but any of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski are excellent options depending on who ends up taking the field.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 53, Rams -7.5

I don’t know what to make of this contest without Henry. Will the Titan’s abandon the run and throw the ball 50+ times? Will Peterson be some kind of reasonable analogue of the King for a few weeks? Will the Titan’s be completely out of rhythm and end up losing by multiple scores? This is an odd one to handicap so if you play showdown tonight you really need to build numerous lineups that will tell each story to give yourself the best shot at success.

Captains:

Chalk: Matt Stafford $19,200:

Against that Charmin toilet paper soft defense of the Titans, Matt Stafford should absolutely smash and it makes a ton of sense that he will be the highest owned captain on the slate. Nothing much need to be discussed here. Stafford is playing at an MVP caliber and the Titans are bad on the defensive side.

Pivot: Ryan Tannehill, $14,700:

With King Henry expected to miss the rest of the season, the hopes and dreams and the franchise rests on the right arm of Tannehill. We do not have a huge sample to go off but if there was a day that Tanny would end up throwing the ball 50 times this is the one. With No Henry, or Evans, the Titans are stuck with Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson as their primary backs.

Contrarian #1: Cooper Kupp, $18,600:

Cooper Kupp is all of our daddies at this point. I though he was going to be good with Stafford at the helm, I did not however to expect him to play like a god amongst me, racking up more fantasy points than any other wide receiver in the history of the NFL through 8 weeks. He is a lock button for me tonight. If he isn’t a captain he will be in my flex, 100%, no doubt. Do not fade him.

Contrarian #2: AJ Brown, $15,300:

It is safe to say that without Henry, AJ Brown will find himself near the top of the NFL in targets going into the second half of the year. The Titans have no other choice but to change to a pass first offense and they do not have a ton of depth. Brown, Julio, rinse and repeat. If the Titans go down big tonight Brown is looking at 12 targets as his floor and he can turn any one of them into a big play.

Contrarian #3: Darrell Henderson, $13,800:

With the Rams as 7.5 point favorites Henderson should have every opportunity to go ham against Tennessee’s soft defense. I’ve been trying to gauge this contest without Henry and if you were to tell me that LA trounces the Titans by 21+ points and Henderson ended up with 15 carries in the second half for 98 yards and 2 TD’s I would not be surprised in the least.

WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 Flex plays:

  1. Matthew Stafford
  2. .Ryan Tannehill
  3. Cooper Kupp
  4. AJ Brown
  5. Darrell Henderson
  6. Julio Jones
  7. Robert Woods
  8. Jeremy McNichols
  9. Van Jefferson
  10. Geoff Swaim
  11. Adrian Peterson
  12. Anthony Firkser
  13. Tyler Higbee
  14. .Matt Gay
  15. Rodney Bullock
  16. Sony Michel
  17. Chester Rodgers
  18. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  19. Marcus Johnson

Kickers and defenses:

If you were dead set on using a defense in this contest I could co-sign on the Rams. While on paper, the Titans do have several weapons still available to them there is a non zero percentage chance that they will struggle to change their play style and the Rams newly upgraded defensive front could be in the Titan’s backfield all day leading to sack and turnovers. As far as kickers go, it may be difficult to find cheaper priced guys that can provide you with the same upside in a 51 total game so if you want to go for a kicker as your final piece I would not be against it.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Heading into week 9 of the NFL, we saw two teams that looked unstoppable in the Buccaneers and the Cardinals both lose in shocking fashion to two shorthanded teams. The New Orleans Saints were missing their quarterback for a good portion of the game and the Packers were missing their top three wideouts. This was yet another reminder that truly anything can happen in the NFL, as anyone that picked the Bengals in survivor pools can attest to. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. I will cut right to the chase and say that the clear cut top quarterback option this Sunday is Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD). The best part is, he should not even be too chalky on DraftKings, although he should be as chalky as he was in week 8 or potentially even chalkier over on FanDuel. It is much easier to afford expensive quarterbacks on FanDuel, whereas the field generally tries to either pay down at QB or shoot for the mid-tier on DK. Allen will be facing statistically the worst defense in the NFL in general, and also the worst defense in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA. The Jaguars rank the 23rd worst in the NFL against opposing quarterbacks, and they are 26th against both wide receivers and tight ends. In other words, this team just cannot defend the pass very well at all. I will let others try to fade Allen here due to either ownership or a potential blowout, but despite the 2 touchdown+ spread, if the Bills blow this team out then Josh Allen will have 3+ TDs and plenty of passing yards to his name. Let others play the ownership fade on FanDuel, and take advantage of potentially low ownership over on DK with their strict pricing and salary cap.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Taysom Hill ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD). Hill is clearly underpriced across the industry for his new role, I mean we are talking about a guy who scored nearly 19 points on DraftKings in a game that Winston played in! Hill is apt to get us the six points for a rushing touchdown as opposed to just the four points for a passing touchdown, but he can certainly do both. The Saints draw the hapless Atlanta Falcons in week 9 of the NFL, who rank 3rd to last in DVOA through 8 weeks. They also rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in defending opposing quarterbacks. On top of this, the Falcons rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, meaning the likelihood of Taysom facing pressure when he does throw the ball is extremely low. The Saints also have the 9th highest run potential grade of the week, based on the combination of their strong offensive line against the Falcons mediocre defensive line. Load up on Taysom and the Saints as they look to keep rolling after their extremely impressive win over the Bucs.

C. The final quarterback that I will be looking to get exposure to in tournaments on Sunday is Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD), who happened to practice in full on Thursday. Dak will be welcomed back from his short break with a juicy matchup against a beatable Denver Broncos defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. While this defense is stronger against the pass than they are against the run, we know that this team depends on Dak regardless, and they will be sure to put the ball in his hands frequently this weekend. The strange part of this is that despite ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass, the Broncos are 3rd in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. I will side with the defense against the pass numbers here as the Broncos have not faced many quarterbacks of Dak’s caliber. The Cowboys are another near double-digit favorite for Sunday and I expect Zeke and Dak to eat.

The Stacks

A. Whelp, I made the mistake of stacking Emmanuel Sanders with Josh Allen in week 8 and was rewarded with a nice goose egg in my lineup for my troubles. While we need to have a short memory in DFS, Sanders is still more expensive than Cole Beasley, who is clearly the safer option with a similar, or arguably even higher, floor/ceiling combination. I will not be returning to the Sanders well, but Beasley and Diggs are the two receiving options that I will look to in this matchup. Tommy Sweeney is a big red zone target for Allen, but outside of a touchdown catch he does not contribute much and really does not have the ceiling that we are looking for to take down GPPs. On the Jaguars side of the ball, we are left with Laviska Shenault and whatever is left of Marvin Jones. I will pass on the wideouts from this team, but Dan Arnold came through for us as DFS chalk in week 8 and saw the commensurate price bump. I still think that he is a fine option despite the higher price tag, as he will now carry a fraction of the ownership and he is clearly a solid target for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

B. Now this is a game that we can really load up on from both sides of the football. Despite this Saints team being hit with bad news from both the QB and WR positions last week, they are at least returning their backup QB Taysom Hill, even though there were rumors that he could retire due to concussions. The situation definitely gets a lot trickier with Taysom at the helm, because he could easily steal red zone touches and rushing touchdowns from Kamara. I will likely take a wait and see approach with Alvin, but I am also fine getting some exposure to him in the hopes that Taysom dumps the ball off to him frequently. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith outline our top two options at wide receiver, and Smith will be happy to have Hill under center after his public falling out with Jameis Winston. Both of these two are fine flier options, but we should likely limit our exposure to just one of them per lineup. On the Falcons side, we have the continued resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson as an offensive juggernaut for us to target, along with potentially a cheap and low-owned Mike Davis if we want to get weird. Russell Gage and UMass Amherst’s own Tajae Sharpe are two potential bring-backs, but the best pass-catching option for us is of course Kyle Pitts. This is easily my favorite game to stack up this week, despite the total sitting at only 42.

C. Closing things out with a game that has a much higher total of nearly 50, we have the Denver Broncos taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Dak will have all of his typical weapons healthy in this game, so we can look to Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. While I certainly would not look to target all 4 of these top options in any single lineup, I am definitely fine getting to two or three of them given the upside that this team has shown, and their juicy matchup at home. The Broncos will be returning Jerry Jeudy, and it will be interesting to see how his return impacts Cortland Sutton. Tim Patrick may take the largest hit in terms of his production, but all three are viable in GPPs on Sunday. We also have yet another viable TE bring-back in the form of Noah Fant, so this game is definitely right up there with the Falcons/Saints as a top option for week 9 of the NFL, but keep in mind this game will likely carry significant ownership.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Heading into week 9 of the NFL, we saw two teams that looked unstoppable in the Buccaneers and the Cardinals both lose in shocking fashion to two shorthanded teams. The New Orleans Saints were missing their quarterback for a good portion of the game and the Packers were missing their top three wideouts. This was yet another reminder that truly anything can happen in the NFL, as anyone that picked the Bengals in survivor pools can attest to. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. I will cut right to the chase and say that the clear cut top quarterback option this Sunday is Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD). The best part is, he should not even be too chalky on DraftKings, although he should be as chalky as he was in week 8 or potentially even chalkier over on FanDuel. It is much easier to afford expensive quarterbacks on FanDuel, whereas the field generally tries to either pay down at QB or shoot for the mid-tier on DK. Allen will be facing statistically the worst defense in the NFL in general, and also the worst defense in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA. The Jaguars rank the 23rd worst in the NFL against opposing quarterbacks, and they are 26th against both wide receivers and tight ends. In other words, this team just cannot defend the pass very well at all. I will let others try to fade Allen here due to either ownership or a potential blowout, but despite the 2 touchdown+ spread, if the Bills blow this team out then Josh Allen will have 3+ TDs and plenty of passing yards to his name. Let others play the ownership fade on FanDuel, and take advantage of potentially low ownership over on DK with their strict pricing and salary cap.

B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Taysom Hill ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD). Hill is clearly underpriced across the industry for his new role, I mean we are talking about a guy who scored nearly 19 points on DraftKings in a game that Winston played in! Hill is apt to get us the six points for a rushing touchdown as opposed to just the four points for a passing touchdown, but he can certainly do both. The Saints draw the hapless Atlanta Falcons in week 9 of the NFL, who rank 3rd to last in DVOA through 8 weeks. They also rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in defending opposing quarterbacks. On top of this, the Falcons rank 27th in adjusted sack rate, meaning the likelihood of Taysom facing pressure when he does throw the ball is extremely low. The Saints also have the 9th highest run potential grade of the week, based on the combination of their strong offensive line against the Falcons mediocre defensive line. Load up on Taysom and the Saints as they look to keep rolling after their extremely impressive win over the Bucs.

C. The final quarterback that I will be looking to get exposure to in tournaments on Sunday is Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD), who happened to practice in full on Thursday. Dak will be welcomed back from his short break with a juicy matchup against a beatable Denver Broncos defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. While this defense is stronger against the pass than they are against the run, we know that this team depends on Dak regardless, and they will be sure to put the ball in his hands frequently this weekend. The strange part of this is that despite ranking 21st in DVOA against the pass, the Broncos are 3rd in DvP against opposing quarterbacks. I will side with the defense against the pass numbers here as the Broncos have not faced many quarterbacks of Dak’s caliber. The Cowboys are another near double-digit favorite for Sunday and I expect Zeke and Dak to eat.

The Stacks

A. Whelp, I made the mistake of stacking Emmanuel Sanders with Josh Allen in week 8 and was rewarded with a nice goose egg in my lineup for my troubles. While we need to have a short memory in DFS, Sanders is still more expensive than Cole Beasley, who is clearly the safer option with a similar, or arguably even higher, floor/ceiling combination. I will not be returning to the Sanders well, but Beasley and Diggs are the two receiving options that I will look to in this matchup. Tommy Sweeney is a big red zone target for Allen, but outside of a touchdown catch he does not contribute much and really does not have the ceiling that we are looking for to take down GPPs. On the Jaguars side of the ball, we are left with Laviska Shenault and whatever is left of Marvin Jones. I will pass on the wideouts from this team, but Dan Arnold came through for us as DFS chalk in week 8 and saw the commensurate price bump. I still think that he is a fine option despite the higher price tag, as he will now carry a fraction of the ownership and he is clearly a solid target for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

B. Now this is a game that we can really load up on from both sides of the football. Despite this Saints team being hit with bad news from both the QB and WR positions last week, they are at least returning their backup QB Taysom Hill, even though there were rumors that he could retire due to concussions. The situation definitely gets a lot trickier with Taysom at the helm, because he could easily steal red zone touches and rushing touchdowns from Kamara. I will likely take a wait and see approach with Alvin, but I am also fine getting some exposure to him in the hopes that Taysom dumps the ball off to him frequently. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith outline our top two options at wide receiver, and Smith will be happy to have Hill under center after his public falling out with Jameis Winston. Both of these two are fine flier options, but we should likely limit our exposure to just one of them per lineup. On the Falcons side, we have the continued resurgence of Cordarrelle Patterson as an offensive juggernaut for us to target, along with potentially a cheap and low-owned Mike Davis if we want to get weird. Russell Gage and UMass Amherst’s own Tajae Sharpe are two potential bring-backs, but the best pass-catching option for us is of course Kyle Pitts. This is easily my favorite game to stack up this week, despite the total sitting at only 42.

C. Closing things out with a game that has a much higher total of nearly 50, we have the Denver Broncos taking on the Dallas Cowboys. Dak will have all of his typical weapons healthy in this game, so we can look to Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Dalton Schultz. While I certainly would not look to target all 4 of these top options in any single lineup, I am definitely fine getting to two or three of them given the upside that this team has shown, and their juicy matchup at home. The Broncos will be returning Jerry Jeudy, and it will be interesting to see how his return impacts Cortland Sutton. Tim Patrick may take the largest hit in terms of his production, but all three are viable in GPPs on Sunday. We also have yet another viable TE bring-back in the form of Noah Fant, so this game is definitely right up there with the Falcons/Saints as a top option for week 9 of the NFL, but keep in mind this game will likely carry significant ownership.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Vikings -3

The game script tonight still is not known as of 3:00 PM EST. It all hinges on the calf of one Dak Prescott so these plays can change drastically based on whether or not Prescott suits up. Currently, I am writing this under the assumption that Prescott suits up. If Dak end up being out or if you think he gives it a go and leaves the game early I am recommending caution on Cowboy’s receivers and giving a bump to both Elliott, Pollard, and Schultz.

Captains:

Chalk: Dalvin Cook, $14,100

A healthy Dalvin Cook listed as the 5th priced player in a showdown slate is simply a mispricing on the part of DraftKings and due to that error, we will likely see him as the highest rostered captain in the game. When healthy he is a near-lock for 20+ carries and 4-6 targets in the passing game and his props tell me that Vegas feels the same with a 3.5 catch prop with 114.5 total yards and the best odds to score on the game at -150. Add that up and we have a 21 DK point total as the baseline

Pivot: Dak Prescott, $16,800

The only reason Dak isn’t at the top of this list today is the lingering concern with if calf injury but at the end of the day if you expect him to suit up and play he is a prime candidate for a pivot captain. Even if he lacks mobility tonight he has a great offensive line, a wide variety of offensive skill players to throw to, and the Vikings aren’t the type of defense that strikes fear into the hearts and minds of offensive coordinators. If you get a chance, watch him in pregame warmups and get a feel for how he looks before locking him in. You know the cameras will be following him around during the warmups

Contrarian #1: Ceedee Lamb, $14,700

Lamb went ham in week six bringing in 9 of 11 targets for 149 yards and two TD’s against a defense that is arguably better in the New England Patriots. With Dak nursing an injury he is going to lead to lean on his playmakers to make up for his limited mobility. That leads me to believe that we are going to see a little more in the short passing game to keep Dak safe increasing the target valume for Ceedee as he will be used as a safety valve in the middle of the field.

Contrarian #2: Justin Jefferson, $15,000

I have been going back and forth on Lamb or Jefferson as my first contrarian play but one thing led me to go with Ceedee over Justin. Primetime Kirk Cousins is a thing. Whenever the spotlight shines on him he tends to underperform more often than not so I will have a bit more Ceedee than Justin in my captain spot. Well, I guess two things, I also have the slightest bit of concern that Diggs may be able to hang with Jefferson just enough to slow him down a bit. Not stop, but slow down.

Contrarian#3: Ezekiel Elliott, $13,800

The number of people shouting that Zeke was washed after week one was mind-boggling. After five straight games with no less than 17.7 DK points people have quietly taken their L and gone home. Zeke is good folks, it doesn’t matter if you think Pollard is better, Jerry loves the guy, and he is still the number one. As I mentioned with Ceedee I expect the Cowboys to script their offensive game plan to keep their franchise quarterback safe if he suits up. What that means for most teams is a heavy dose of the run game and Zeke should reasonably be expected to gash the Vikings front.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31:

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Ceedee Lamb
  4. Justin Jefferson
  5. Ezekiel Elliott
  6. Kirk Cousins
  7. Adam Thielen
  8. Amari Cooper
  9. Dalton Shultz
  10. Tony Pollard
  11. KJ Osborn
  12. Cedrick Wilson
  13. Tyler Conklin
  14. Greg Zuerlein
  15. Greg Joseph
  16. Blake Jarwin
  17. Noah Brown
  18. Alexander Mattinson
  19. Cowboys D
  20. Vikings D

Kickers and defenses:

I am not going to be running the kickers or defenses in my main builds tonight. But, if you are going to run a lineup or two out there where you expect primetime Cousins to rear his ugly head, or if you think the calf injury causes Dak to struggle or leave the game early and Cooper Rush takes over I can see a case where playing the defenses or kickers as viable. There is a reasonable, albeit small chance that this game falls completely flat due to the quarterback situation tonight. If you are building 10+ lineups, consider doing one or two builds where you script one or both teams struggling to give yourself a complete contrarian build in a 51 total game.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 8 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

Derrick Henry gets his own spot at the top every week because he is in a class all his own. He will always carry ownership but he has a week in, week out ceiling that is unrivaled in fantasy football. If you can fit him and want to play him I will not talk you off of it. Henry is under 10% this week so he is extremely viable in GPP’s. All Hail the King!

GPP:

Najee Harris, $7,500DK/$9,000FD: 8-10%

As of Friday the following Browns defensive players are out or limited and could be out: Richard LeCounte III (safety), Denzel Ward, (cornerback), Jadeveon Clowney (defensive end), A.J. Green (cornerback), Malik Jackson (defensive tackle), Takkarist McKinley (defensive end). Because of that, the little red 4 next to Najee’s name on DraftKings causes me zero concern. Ignoring that Broncos game where Fangio decided to run his backs a total of 12 times even then Javonte Williams caught 6 passes for 32 yards and a TD) the Browns have been shredded by opposing running backs. Austin Ekeler had 5 catches, 119 total yards and 3 TD’s and the combination of James Connor and Chase Edmonds had 20 for 117 yards and caught 4 of 5 targets. Najee Harris is the league leader in offensive snaps per game for RB’s (57.2), Targets per game (7.7), second in catches (34), and third in FPPG (20.2). The depleted Browns defense is a spot that I am looking to target in some of my GPP builds as his 8% projected ownership is far too low for the floor/ceiling combination that he provides.

Damien Harris, $6,100DK/$6,900FD: 5%

I know I know, we do not typically recommend “non pass catching” running backs outside of King Henry on DraftKings but the only reason Damien didn’t continue his dominating performance (14 carries for 106 yards and two TD’s and two catches for seven yards) is because the Patriots beat the Jets so badly he barely saw the field in the second quarter. It is unlikely that this week will be a repeat and the Charger have the worst group of interior run stoppers in the NFL and it isn’t particularly close. In a game with a projected 51.4 total and a relatively close 4.5 point spread Harris should be in line for a workload north of 20 touches. That being said, this is still a Bill Belichick run offense and we all know that he hates your fantasy team so use discretion. Nothing worse than going all in on a player that can be limited due to coaching decisions.

Nick Chubb, $6,800DK/$8,000FD: 3-5%

I really do not believe that this ownership data is correct here. If Nick Chubb is under 8% Sunday with no Kareem Hunt it is officially time to call him the most disrespected player in fantasy sports. Yes, I know it is the Steelers, no I do not care. He is healthy and he should get the lion’s share of the work on that offense without multiple weapons on the Browns right now. He is still one of the premier talents in the NFL at running back and is averaging almost six yards per carry.

Also Consider: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson

WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31

Cash:

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

I know that last week we found ourselves in a bit of a letdown spot where the Lions played with reckless abandon last week and actually took the lead in the first have and kept the ball out of the hands of the Ram’s for almost the entire first quarter despite being almost 20 point dogs. But in DFS you have to keep a short memory when it comes to outliers. Henderson finds himself in another fantastic spot as the Rams are 16.5 point favorites against a Texans team who is at the bottom of the league in run defense despite changing to a 4-3 under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Hendo is also sitting as the highest projected owned running back at anywhere between 20-25% and probably closer to 35%+ in cash contests if I were to read the tea leaves a little. Fading any player at that ownership is a dangerous proposition when you are building cash lineups.

D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Swift is far too cheap for a game-script proof running back and it looks like everyone agrees as he is projected as our 2nd highest rostered running back on the slate. Nobody in the league has caught more passes out of the backfield and Jared Goff’s inability to get beyond two reads has been a huge benefit to his receiving value. The Lions have been forced to design short passing routes out of the backfield specifically for Swift due to their limitations at quarterback and we saw them lean into this last week against the Rams where he saw 10 targets and saw his best yards per catch number (12 YPC) on the year. Another thing I love is that over the last few weeks is his carry numbers have been very steady at 13 carries over the last two and double digits in all three. He is popular but he is safe, and safe is what we want for cash games.

James Robinson, $6,600DK/$8,200FD :

It took a couple of weeks but the coaching staff for the Jags realized that their offense should start with the running game and build outward. Since week three when they figured that out, James Robinson has scored no less that 19.1 fantasy points on DraftKings and there is no reason that should change against a helpless Seahawks team who struggles defensively on the best of days and is now getting no time to rest with Geno Smith at the helm. Volume+skill+good matchup=Fantasy Gold.

Also Consider: Kenneth Gainwell, Chuba Hubbard

It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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Heading into week 8 of the NFL it seems as though the league is more wide open that it has ever been. The Chiefs just got blown out by the Titans and look absolutely lost on the football field. The only argument against this is that the Bucs look just as good as they did during their super bowl season last year, but outside of them there are a lot of divisions up for grabs. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off of a bye this week, as are quite a few teams across the NFL given that week 7 was apparently the week of the byes. With the Urban Meyer narrative long in the rearview mirror and long since overshadowed by Jon Gruden, Trevor Lawrence ($5,500 DK / $6,700 FD) and this Jags team should now be fully focused on their opponent. Speaking of their opponent, they will be playing the Seattle Seahawks, who are on the opposite of a bye as they are dealt a short week given that they just played a pretty pathetic game against the Saints on Monday. This Seahawks teamed looked pretty horrendous, and the only reason that they were able to hold the Saints to 13 points was because they are the Saints, and the weather was detrimental to offensive production. Regardless of weather, the Seahawks rank 21st and 25th in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, respectively, while ranking 16th in defense against the quarterback position. Lawrence has looked very rough this season, and this is definitely a GPP-only play, but if there is ever a breakout spot for a young rookie #1 overall pick, this is it.

B. Another quarterback that I expect to be extremely low-owned is Sam Darnold ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD). As you can see, my plan is to continue to look to save money at the quarterback position in the majority of my lineups this weekend. What a rollercoaster of a ride it has been for Sam, as he has gone from being a total and complete bust in the NFL with the Jets, to reaching his potential and flourishing with the Panthers as they started 3-0, and now back down to rock bottom as Carolina has dropped four games in a row. Let’s be honest though, the Panthers beat the Texans and Jets as two of their first three games so is that really at all impressive? Regardless of your thoughts on Darnold, he did have three clear ceiling games to show us that he does possess tournament-winning upside at this price and with this team. In a matchup against an Atlanta Falcons team that seemingly ranks in the bottom of the entire NFL in most defensive metrics each season, I expect Carolina to put the ball in Sam’s hands early and often to give him one final chance to salvage his career.

C. Strangely enough, I will be looking to target the exact same QB3 this weekend as I did in week 6 for my previous article, and that QB is Joe Burrow ($7,100 DK / $7,800 FD). While his prices are not necessarily as low as they were the last time that I looked to target him, they are still at reasonable levels given his production so far this season. As my New England Patriots showed on Sunday, this Jets defense and team in general is pretty laughable. The Pats made this team look like they belong in college, and I expect Joe and the Bengals to do the same. Ranking 29th in total DVOA, 28th in DVOA against the pass, and 26th in adjusted line yards, the Jets defense is truly subpar on all accounts. The line yards are of particular importance, given that this O-line is not much improved from the one that allowed opposing defenses to torment Burrow his rookie season that ultimately resulted in a devastating leg injury. JB should continue to show glimpses of his greatness at LSU this weekend and I want to be along for the ride.

The Stacks

A. There is the narrative going around the DFS industry lately that the field is forcing bring-backs when they do not need one and while I think that that is true in some cases, I will still be highlighting our options when a bring-back does make sense. If I do not feel the need to, I will make that clear, as is usually the case with teams like the Lions or the Texans. Anyway, looking at the Jaguars, we have an interesting situation as they just lost their WR1 DJ Chark to a fractured left ankle. This leaves us with week 1 (and honestly 2 as well) darling Marvin Jones, who has seen his price rise over the weeks as expected. My favorite option from this group though is Laviska Shenault, who is priced to move across the DFS industry. Jamal Agnew may get some buzz, but I will likely keep any Jags stacks to just these two pass catchers, with a potential Dan Arnold sprinkle given how weak the TE position is. Typically I would look to run a bring back with the Seahawks and DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or even Gerald Everett, but that is not the case this week. With a short week, a recent and absolutely disgraceful 10 point performance, and Geno Smith attempting to play quarterback, I am totally off of this team.

B. Sam Darnold and the Panthers present us another interesting situation, as we are able to target the running back in our stacks since Chuba Hubbard catches passes out of the backfield from Darnold. We can also of course look to alpha wideout DJ Moore, who has shown us GPP takedown upside on a few occasions this season. Robby Anderson appears to have had a blip on the radar during previous seasons as he has totally fallen off a cliff in 2021. This is common in the NFL as it is so difficult to stay consistently productive. Ian Thomas is another cheap TE punt that we can look to if we are desperate, but we should not even expect double digit fantasy points necessarily. For the Falcons side of the ball, Calvin Ridley will be extremely chalky on DraftKings at a price point of $6,600, but he and Kyle Pitts are the clear-cut options for a bring-back in a game where I think we do need to target both sides to win tournaments.

C. To close things out for week 8 of the NFL, the two Joes (Burrow/Mixon) will be teaming up with Burrow’s former LSU teammate and breakout rookie of the year candidate, Ja’Marr Chase, against the hapless New York Jets. The GD Jets are so bad, that we can not only look to these two top-tier options, but also the WR2 and WR3 of this team, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Tight end CJ Uzomah has also been extremely productive at times and has looked like a top 10 TE in the league this season. With someone named Mike White that I have honestly never heard of taking over the reigns for the pathetic joke of an NFL franchise that is the New York Jets, you can bet every penny you have that this is a spot where I will avoid including a bring-back. Look for the Bengals to keep rolling because if the Pats hung 50+ on this team, so can Joe and Ja’Marr.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

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