DFS NFL

We are beginning to enter the home stretch of the season as week 14 of the NFL kicks off this evening with the Steelers taking on the Vikings who just handed the Lions their first and only win of the season. The playoff picture is beginning to become more and more clear and that will only continue as we come down to the final weeks as we wind out December. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have a very unique situation for week 14 of the NFL, as the three worst teams in total DVOA are all on the main slate for what I believe to be the first time all season. Another wild aspect of this is the fact that all 3 of those teams also have the same rank in DVOA against the pass as they do in total DVOA. The top option for us this week is Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK / $7,700 FD) as he is just way under priced for his potential production. Not only is he one of the few quarterbacks that still contributes heavily in the rushing department, but he also draws the best possible matchup for a signal caller as he faces off against the New York Jets. The Jets rank dead last in the entire NFL in total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, while also ranking 3rd worst in DVOA against the run. This team boasts the absolute bottom of the barrel worst defense in the NFL, and with Alvin Kamara likely returning, this Saints offense should be able to walk all over New York. I will save further analysis for the stacks section, but this Jets team ranks dead last in DvP against the running back position as well, so I think you can see where I will be getting heavy exposure in addition to Hill.

B. I hate to just cherry pick the quarterbacks that are facing the bottom three defenses in the league, but I really think it is honestly this easy this week. The tricky part will be determining where to differentiate with our stacks. Ryan Tannehill ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) and the Tennessee Titans will be taking on the second worst defense in the entire NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags rank second to last in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass, however unlike the Jets, they are at least average in terms of defending the run. Of the 28 teams taking the field in week 14, the Titans come in at 20th in terms of sack likelihood on Tannehill. In other words, Tannehill should have the 9th easiest time passing the football in the pocket and we should not expect him to be pressured very often, according to the strength of the Tennessee offensive line against the week Jacksonville defensive line. Tannehill should be able to have his way with this defense, and it will be icing on the cake if Julio Jones is also able to return.

C. The last quarterback that is facing a bottom three defense on the main slate is none other than Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD). While he is the most expensive of the three, he will likely be significantly lower-owned than Taysom Hill for tournaments. The Washington Football Team really needs to come up with an actual name, it is insane how long this has taken. Anyway, they are horrendous at defending in football games, as they rank 30th in both total DVOA and DVOA against the pass. The Cowboys will be calling passing plays at an enormous rate, given that both of their runningbacks are banged up and the fact that WFT actually ranks 8th in DVOA against the rush. Washington ranks dead last in DvP against the QB position, so we should absolutely expect a ceiling game for Dak, especially that he now has his weapons healthy. The Cowboys should absolutely roll in this spot, and I expect Dak to be one of the top scoring quarterbacks on the slate.

The Stacks

A. Similar to the Kansas City Chiefs, the New Orleans Saints have really not been themselves this season. Michael Thomas got surgery extremely late in the off-season, and then unsurprisingly missed the entire season due to experiencing a “set-back”, and Alvin Kamara has been in and out of the lineup for the majority of the season at this point. Regardless, stacking Taysom Hill with Kamara is one of my favorite builds at this point in the week. You can add one wideout, but our options of Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey do not inspire much confidence whatsoever. The tight end options are arguably even more bleak, so I will likely be sticking to the Hill/Kamara one-two punch and hoping that the field avoids Kamara due to his injured status and potential lost red zone touches due to Hill. Elijah Moore is somewhat intriguing on the Jets side of the football, but I will likely be avoiding the Jets as I do every week, since that will very rarely come back to haunt us.

B. The situation in Tennessee really hinges very heavily on the potential return of Julio Jones as I mentioned above. If Jones does not return, we should likely pass on this Titans offense, but if he does suit up then a DraftKings price of $5.4K with no A.J. Brown or Derrick Henry is beyond enticing. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers are potential options if Julio sits, but they essentially have little to no ceiling to help us win GPPs. I also would not be caught dead rostering a Jaguars player, as I took the cheap price on Laviska Shenault last week and was quickly reminded why his price is so low. $4.3K is honestly still too much for this guy in this offense, and I am not even sure I would have interest at $3K. Similar to the game above, this is really just a spot where I want to target the quarterback and top skill position player from one team and then leave the rest of this game on the table.

C. Last but not least, we finally have a game that we can stack up from both sides. I wrote up Dak Prescott, but you can also get cute and roster Taylor Heinicke on the other side for tournaments, as he will almost definitely come in at even lower ownership. I heard Ezekiel Elliott referred to as a “$90M pass blocker” earlier this week, and that is sad but true. Zeke has looked fat, out of shape, and downright horrendous at most points this season, and he is claiming he is injured as well but man even early in the season he looked awful. Pollard is clearly the more skilled back but he is still technically a backup that we would have to pay $6.4K for, so no thanks. The wide receivers are clearly where the money is on this team, and we can get plenty of exposure to CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup on Sunday. Dalton Schultz is also a viable tight end option, and you can really load up two or three of these guys in one lineup and still feel comfortable with your potential upside given that Dallas has one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. Terry McLaurin is of course our default bring-back option and I love including him in lineups with my Dallas stack onslaughts.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We enter lucky week 13 in the NFL with still seemingly the entire league up for grabs. Is every team mediocre this season or is every team elite? I guess that depends on your own opinion but mine is that a swath of injuries has resulted in every team being mostly average, and the Patriots once again rising to the top of it all. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My first QB for GPPs this Sunday is Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) who gets the pleasure of taking on the New York Jets. While the DFS sites definitely have not priced Hurts at a bargain for us, this is a matchup where he should be able to use his legs easily. When Hurts averages fewer than double digit rush attempts, his floor plummets to the single digits, but Hurts has yet to score below 16.7 DraftKings points when averaging at least double digit rush attempts, and his average is 20+. This Jets team is easily bottom three in the NFL in total DVOA, as well as DVOA against both the pass and the run. No matter what opposing teams want to do on a football field, the Jets just cannot stop it. While they surrender the most production to opposing runningbacks, Hurts essentially acts as this teams RB frequently. Hurts ownership should be depressed after he totally flopped last week and due to the fact that he comes into the week listed as questionable after splitting time with Minshew on the practice field all week. If Hurts is a full go, get some exposure to him in tournaments this weekend.

B. A team that is in a more obvious pass-heavy scenario than the Eagles is the Los Vegas Raider and their signal caller Derek Carr ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD). Carr is priced significantly cheaper than Hurts across the industry, so if we are strapped for salary cap on Sunday we can certainly do worse than looking his way. He showed signs of a ceiling in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as he lead his team to a win and dropped 24 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, he was pretty abysmal which is why we are still able to get him at this price point. As I mentioned, the Raiders draw a matchup that will be extremely pass-heavy, as the WFT rank 7th in DVOA against the rush but only 30th against the pass. Add to this the fact that the Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is literally always injured and is listed as questionable, and the Raiders might throw the ball on 80%+ of their plays, so this is a perfect spot for us to get a cheap arm that will be throwing all afternoon.

C. One of the four afternoon games that I, along with many playing DFS, will look to get plenty of exposure to is the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to LA to take on the Rams. Obviously I am not on the Jags side of this game, so my quarterback target here is Matthew Stafford ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD). Interestingly enough, with his price so similar on the two main sites, Stafford is actually the third most expensive QB option on DK but only the 6th on FanDuel, so he is an even stronger option on FD. Pricing aside, the Rams have a dream matchup on Sunday against the team ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass, and surprisingly only 14th in the league against the run. While the Rams somehow rank 7th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, that metric can be pretty noisy and is not one that we should put as much focus on as DVOA. The Rams are massive favorites in this spot, as they should be, and the Stafford to Kupp connection should be on full display.

The Stacks

A. To clear this up at the beginning, there is only one game that I will look to target a bring-back from in terms of my top three stacks for tournaments, and this of course, is not one of them. The Jets are an abysmal professional sports organization and have been for seemingly decades, and that will not be changing in week 13 of this NFL season. The Eagles have a running back that plays like he belongs on the Jets, so I will definitely be avoiding Miles Sanders who garnered serious ownership last week for some strange reason. Our options here are truly limited to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with a sprinkling of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor if you want to get cute and/or need to save some salary, because there are some solid spend-up options at both wideout and RB this Sunday.

B. This is the lone game where we do have a viable option for a game stack, but I will start with the Los Vegas Raiders. The Raiders may or may not have Josh Jacobs for this matchup, but as I mentioned I am more interested in Kenyan Drake and the passing game here regardless of the status of JJ. Of course if Jacobs sits out, Drake becomes one of the best value plays of the entire slate, but we do have a plethora of backs in prime spots at prime price tags for us to choose from this week. Hunter Renfrow has truly taken over this team, and with Darren Waller going down with an injury, that will only further boost Renfrow’s absolutely massive expected target share in this offense. We also have the value play of the week in Foster Moreau, as the sites did not have time to bump his price tag up after the Waller news and he sits at only $2.7K on DK. You can try to get cute and fade him in tournaments, but I will likely be looking to differentiate elsewhere as he is just such a great play at that price. Terry McLaurin and a newly healthy Logan Thomas are two great options on the other side of this game, and I do not hate getting exposure to Taylor Heinicke in my game stacks either as this game is one of the most appealing of the entire day from a fantasy perspective.

C. To close things out for week 13, we have an expected one-sided affair where I will be targeting the Rams side of the football and that will be all. Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and the receiving corps of this team are just flat out awful at football. The Rams however, are very good at football and are a well-coached team with Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp being our top two options. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham have been syphoning Kupp’s volume lately, but that will hopefully just lead to lower ownership on Kupp for us. While the two aforementioned wideouts are certainly viable, Tyler Higbee should come in extremely low-owned due to the Foster Moreau chalk and he is my second favorite option from this team as a result. Get as much exposure as you want in your Rams stacks, as this team has the highest implied total of any team on the entire main slate Sunday afternoon.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

We enter lucky week 13 in the NFL with still seemingly the entire league up for grabs. Is every team mediocre this season or is every team elite? I guess that depends on your own opinion but mine is that a swath of injuries has resulted in every team being mostly average, and the Patriots once again rising to the top of it all. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My first QB for GPPs this Sunday is Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) who gets the pleasure of taking on the New York Jets. While the DFS sites definitely have not priced Hurts at a bargain for us, this is a matchup where he should be able to use his legs easily. When Hurts averages fewer than double digit rush attempts, his floor plummets to the single digits, but Hurts has yet to score below 16.7 DraftKings points when averaging at least double digit rush attempts, and his average is 20+. This Jets team is easily bottom three in the NFL in total DVOA, as well as DVOA against both the pass and the run. No matter what opposing teams want to do on a football field, the Jets just cannot stop it. While they surrender the most production to opposing runningbacks, Hurts essentially acts as this teams RB frequently. Hurts ownership should be depressed after he totally flopped last week and due to the fact that he comes into the week listed as questionable after splitting time with Minshew on the practice field all week. If Hurts is a full go, get some exposure to him in tournaments this weekend.

B. A team that is in a more obvious pass-heavy scenario than the Eagles is the Los Vegas Raider and their signal caller Derek Carr ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD). Carr is priced significantly cheaper than Hurts across the industry, so if we are strapped for salary cap on Sunday we can certainly do worse than looking his way. He showed signs of a ceiling in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as he lead his team to a win and dropped 24 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, he was pretty abysmal which is why we are still able to get him at this price point. As I mentioned, the Raiders draw a matchup that will be extremely pass-heavy, as the WFT rank 7th in DVOA against the rush but only 30th against the pass. Add to this the fact that the Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is literally always injured and is listed as questionable, and the Raiders might throw the ball on 80%+ of their plays, so this is a perfect spot for us to get a cheap arm that will be throwing all afternoon.

C. One of the four afternoon games that I, along with many playing DFS, will look to get plenty of exposure to is the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to LA to take on the Rams. Obviously I am not on the Jags side of this game, so my quarterback target here is Matthew Stafford ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD). Interestingly enough, with his price so similar on the two main sites, Stafford is actually the third most expensive QB option on DK but only the 6th on FanDuel, so he is an even stronger option on FD. Pricing aside, the Rams have a dream matchup on Sunday against the team ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass, and surprisingly only 14th in the league against the run. While the Rams somehow rank 7th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, that metric can be pretty noisy and is not one that we should put as much focus on as DVOA. The Rams are massive favorites in this spot, as they should be, and the Stafford to Kupp connection should be on full display.

The Stacks

A. To clear this up at the beginning, there is only one game that I will look to target a bring-back from in terms of my top three stacks for tournaments, and this of course, is not one of them. The Jets are an abysmal professional sports organization and have been for seemingly decades, and that will not be changing in week 13 of this NFL season. The Eagles have a running back that plays like he belongs on the Jets, so I will definitely be avoiding Miles Sanders who garnered serious ownership last week for some strange reason. Our options here are truly limited to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with a sprinkling of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor if you want to get cute and/or need to save some salary, because there are some solid spend-up options at both wideout and RB this Sunday.

B. This is the lone game where we do have a viable option for a game stack, but I will start with the Los Vegas Raiders. The Raiders may or may not have Josh Jacobs for this matchup, but as I mentioned I am more interested in Kenyan Drake and the passing game here regardless of the status of JJ. Of course if Jacobs sits out, Drake becomes one of the best value plays of the entire slate, but we do have a plethora of backs in prime spots at prime price tags for us to choose from this week. Hunter Renfrow has truly taken over this team, and with Darren Waller going down with an injury, that will only further boost Renfrow’s absolutely massive expected target share in this offense. We also have the value play of the week in Foster Moreau, as the sites did not have time to bump his price tag up after the Waller news and he sits at only $2.7K on DK. You can try to get cute and fade him in tournaments, but I will likely be looking to differentiate elsewhere as he is just such a great play at that price. Terry McLaurin and a newly healthy Logan Thomas are two great options on the other side of this game, and I do not hate getting exposure to Taylor Heinicke in my game stacks either as this game is one of the most appealing of the entire day from a fantasy perspective.

C. To close things out for week 13, we have an expected one-sided affair where I will be targeting the Rams side of the football and that will be all. Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and the receiving corps of this team are just flat out awful at football. The Rams however, are very good at football and are a well-coached team with Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp being our top two options. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham have been syphoning Kupp’s volume lately, but that will hopefully just lead to lower ownership on Kupp for us. While the two aforementioned wideouts are certainly viable, Tyler Higbee should come in extremely low-owned due to the Foster Moreau chalk and he is my second favorite option from this team as a result. Get as much exposure as you want in your Rams stacks, as this team has the highest implied total of any team on the entire main slate Sunday afternoon.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

While I am working with limited time on this article due to the holiday, we also have a much smaller slate than usual which leaves us with limited options. As such, I will keep the extra commentary short and sweet and look to focus on the top core quarterbacks and stacks that we can focus on for week 12 of the NFL. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have an absolute toilet bowl with the Texans taking on the Jets, and despite Houston drawing a prime matchup I cannot bring myself to target that mess of a team. Instead, I will be targeting Matt Ryan ($5,500 DK / $7,100 FD) of the Atlanta Falcons as he throws against the weak defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It has been a pretty turbulent season for Ryan, at times looking like his old self and at times looking like he should have retired long ago. This is a matchup where he should be able to finally look like his old self again after the Patriots defense absolutely embarrassed his offensive line in week 11. The Jags rank 29th in DVOA which is the second worst on this main slate, and also rank second to last in the NFL against the pass. Interestingly enough, they rank 5th in DVOA against the run somehow, so we should expect the Falcons to look to attack through the air early and often, which only further boosts Ryan’s ceiling.

B. Another team that was recently embarrassed by my New England Patriots is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) is an excellent option for our DFS lineups as he matches up against a Denver Broncos defense that ranks just 26th in the NFL in DVOA, 17th against the pass, and 28th against the run. While the Broncos are much more susceptible to the run than they are the pass, this offense features one of the best pass-catching running backs in the entire NFL, which allows Herbert to rack up the fantasy points. This game has a close spread and the Chargers have roughly a 25 point implied team total as of this writing. This should be easy sledding all around as the matchup between the Chargers offensive line and the Broncos defensive line (sans Von Miller) rates out as the third best for run potential on the entire slate, so we can confidently load up on LA on Sunday.

C. Coincidentally enough, my QB3 for week 12 of the NFL will be the same as the QB3 I wrote in this spot last week, Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD). After seeing a price drop and drawing a matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that he threw three touchdowns against earlier in the season, how could I stay away? The Steelers are somewhat of a slight pass funnel, ranking 26th in pass DVOA but 16th in run DVOA, but they also rank 25th in total DVOA and are a team that the young LSU product is familiar with. We have another spread within a touchdown and another implied total of roughly 25 points, which is tied for the highest mark this week of any team not wielding Tom Brady. While Joe did not blow the doors of in terms of fantasy points due to a lack of passing yards despite the three house calls, I do not expect that to be the case this week.

The Stacks

A. While I will definitely admit that it is slim pickings as far as viable fantasy options go on the Atlanta Falcons, if this offensive line is able to give Matt Ryan just a bit more time than he can put Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts to excellent use. These are the clear top two dogs in this offense from a fantasy point production standpoint, and any Falcons stack should honestly start with either one or both of them. After that, we could look to Russel Gage as the best option from the wideouts, or we could get weird with UMass Amherst grad Tajae Sharp or Olamide Zaccheaus, but given the likely low ownership we are already getting, I do not see that as being a necessary route this Sunday. On the other side of the football, we could listen to the coach speak and load up on Laviska Shenault, but coach speak usually just leads to abnormally inflated ownership that makes it more worth fading than believing. Despite the Jags being in shambles, this Falcons defense is not good either so I am fine using James Robinson, Marvin Jones, or even Dan Arnold as bring back options if we look to game-stack, despite that not being a totally necessary route to takedown tournaments.

B. I expect the Chargers to potentially be the chalkiest of the three teams that I have highlighted as our top stack options on Sunday, so with that in mind we will need to look to differentiate with who we choose for the stack or who we fill in around our stack. Austin Ekeler has proven himself to be the new CMC, as outside of a few random down weeks he has absolutely crushed for fantasy this season and is obviously the top option on this team. We had a Mike Williams sighting last week, and he should still be lower-owned than Keenan Allen at a massive price discount as well. The tight ends on this team truly do not do much of anything, so our best leverage point seems to be targeting Williams over Allen. On the Broncos side of the ball, they do not have a heavy pass-catching RB so I will be avoiding that, and instead will target Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or Noah Fant as a bring-back option. This game has a total approaching 50 and has the second highest mark of any game on the main slate this Sunday so we should look to get exposure.

C. To close things out for week 12 of the NFL, I will be going back to the Bengals well as they are home favorites against a Steelers team that they embarrassed earlier this season. Joe Mixon is a pass-catching RB that we can pair with our QB, but the star of this offense is rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins has disappeared quite a bit recently, so I think our second best option for wideouts is Tyler Boyd who was peppered with targets last week. C.J. Uzomah is serviceable at an a TE position that continues to be absolutely brutal this season, but Chase and Boyd are my top two targets in this spot. We have a clear head of each of the three skill position groups for the Steelers, which makes our job much easier. Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth are the Steelers that we should look at for a bring-back, with Harris having the highest floor/ceiling combination of the three for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

While I am working with limited time on this article due to the holiday, we also have a much smaller slate than usual which leaves us with limited options. As such, I will keep the extra commentary short and sweet and look to focus on the top core quarterbacks and stacks that we can focus on for week 12 of the NFL. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. We have an absolute toilet bowl with the Texans taking on the Jets, and despite Houston drawing a prime matchup I cannot bring myself to target that mess of a team. Instead, I will be targeting Matt Ryan ($5,500 DK / $7,100 FD) of the Atlanta Falcons as he throws against the weak defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It has been a pretty turbulent season for Ryan, at times looking like his old self and at times looking like he should have retired long ago. This is a matchup where he should be able to finally look like his old self again after the Patriots defense absolutely embarrassed his offensive line in week 11. The Jags rank 29th in DVOA which is the second worst on this main slate, and also rank second to last in the NFL against the pass. Interestingly enough, they rank 5th in DVOA against the run somehow, so we should expect the Falcons to look to attack through the air early and often, which only further boosts Ryan’s ceiling.

B. Another team that was recently embarrassed by my New England Patriots is the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert ($6,600 DK / $7,800 FD) is an excellent option for our DFS lineups as he matches up against a Denver Broncos defense that ranks just 26th in the NFL in DVOA, 17th against the pass, and 28th against the run. While the Broncos are much more susceptible to the run than they are the pass, this offense features one of the best pass-catching running backs in the entire NFL, which allows Herbert to rack up the fantasy points. This game has a close spread and the Chargers have roughly a 25 point implied team total as of this writing. This should be easy sledding all around as the matchup between the Chargers offensive line and the Broncos defensive line (sans Von Miller) rates out as the third best for run potential on the entire slate, so we can confidently load up on LA on Sunday.

C. Coincidentally enough, my QB3 for week 12 of the NFL will be the same as the QB3 I wrote in this spot last week, Joe Burrow ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD). After seeing a price drop and drawing a matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that he threw three touchdowns against earlier in the season, how could I stay away? The Steelers are somewhat of a slight pass funnel, ranking 26th in pass DVOA but 16th in run DVOA, but they also rank 25th in total DVOA and are a team that the young LSU product is familiar with. We have another spread within a touchdown and another implied total of roughly 25 points, which is tied for the highest mark this week of any team not wielding Tom Brady. While Joe did not blow the doors of in terms of fantasy points due to a lack of passing yards despite the three house calls, I do not expect that to be the case this week.

The Stacks

A. While I will definitely admit that it is slim pickings as far as viable fantasy options go on the Atlanta Falcons, if this offensive line is able to give Matt Ryan just a bit more time than he can put Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts to excellent use. These are the clear top two dogs in this offense from a fantasy point production standpoint, and any Falcons stack should honestly start with either one or both of them. After that, we could look to Russel Gage as the best option from the wideouts, or we could get weird with UMass Amherst grad Tajae Sharp or Olamide Zaccheaus, but given the likely low ownership we are already getting, I do not see that as being a necessary route this Sunday. On the other side of the football, we could listen to the coach speak and load up on Laviska Shenault, but coach speak usually just leads to abnormally inflated ownership that makes it more worth fading than believing. Despite the Jags being in shambles, this Falcons defense is not good either so I am fine using James Robinson, Marvin Jones, or even Dan Arnold as bring back options if we look to game-stack, despite that not being a totally necessary route to takedown tournaments.

B. I expect the Chargers to potentially be the chalkiest of the three teams that I have highlighted as our top stack options on Sunday, so with that in mind we will need to look to differentiate with who we choose for the stack or who we fill in around our stack. Austin Ekeler has proven himself to be the new CMC, as outside of a few random down weeks he has absolutely crushed for fantasy this season and is obviously the top option on this team. We had a Mike Williams sighting last week, and he should still be lower-owned than Keenan Allen at a massive price discount as well. The tight ends on this team truly do not do much of anything, so our best leverage point seems to be targeting Williams over Allen. On the Broncos side of the ball, they do not have a heavy pass-catching RB so I will be avoiding that, and instead will target Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, or Noah Fant as a bring-back option. This game has a total approaching 50 and has the second highest mark of any game on the main slate this Sunday so we should look to get exposure.

C. To close things out for week 12 of the NFL, I will be going back to the Bengals well as they are home favorites against a Steelers team that they embarrassed earlier this season. Joe Mixon is a pass-catching RB that we can pair with our QB, but the star of this offense is rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins has disappeared quite a bit recently, so I think our second best option for wideouts is Tyler Boyd who was peppered with targets last week. C.J. Uzomah is serviceable at an a TE position that continues to be absolutely brutal this season, but Chase and Boyd are my top two targets in this spot. We have a clear head of each of the three skill position groups for the Steelers, which makes our job much easier. Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth are the Steelers that we should look at for a bring-back, with Harris having the highest floor/ceiling combination of the three for Sunday.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

The grind continues on as we enter week 11 of the NFL season. We have 12 games on tap for us to target on the main slate including the alleged game of the week that everyone will be looking to target. I will be avoiding Cowboys vs. Chiefs for the purposes of this article because I expect that to be the highest owned game by far. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My strategy of targeting whatever offense is facing the New York Jets has worked out well so far this season, although it will really be put to the test this week. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD) will be at the helm as the Dolphins take on the Jets in an AFC East toilet bowl. I was wondering how the Falcons had managed to secure four wins despite being a horrendous football team, and then realized half of those wins were against the two teams playing in this game. The Jets are ranked dead last in team DVOA and dead last in DVOA against the pass. They are also vulnerable against the run, as they rank second to last in run DVOA and dead last in DvP against opposing running backs. Any way that you look at this matchup, it is favorable for the Fins and I expect their offense to roll in this spot even though they have not been impressive at all thus far this season. This game will not be popular at all despite having a middling total and a low spread so we can take advantage of the low ownership in tournaments.

B. Another team that we should look to buy low on in terms of both ownership and pricing is the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) is another extremely cheap quarterback option for us this Sunday with some upside due to the matchup. The Browns draw the hapless Detroit Lions, who unsurprisingly rank towards the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric. While this offensive/defensive line matchup ranks towards the middle of the pack in terms of sack potential, the Lions struggle to defend against both the pass and the run. The Browns are listed as double-digit favorites in this spot, and it is definitely a get-right opportunity after they were shellacked by the future super bowl champion New England Patriots last weekend. Target Baker and one or two of his weapons this weekend as a cheap and low-owned stack for GPPs.

C. With my first two quarterback options being on the more risky side of things, I will go a bit safer with my QB3 and target Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD). Burrow draws a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who rank below average in DVOA against the pass, and about average against the run. This is not exactly a dream matchup from a pace and DVOA perspective, but we do have what is surprisingly a top three total of the entire main slate, along with a very low 1 point spread. If there is an under the radar game that could turn into a shootout, this is certainly it. We have a plethora of options on both sides of the ball that I will cover below, but JB should be able to bounce back and post 20+ fantasy points after his brutal single digit effort against the Browns last time out.

The Stacks

A. One of my favorite best ball targets due to his boom or bust nature was Davante Parker, but I have had the absolute worst injury luck this year. Anyway, the Dolphins will be without him and instead rely on pass-catchers like Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Waddle is the only wideout that I have interest in from this team, but I have seen Gesicki getting a ton of buzz around the DFS industry leading up to Sunday. He is priced up at $5.2K on DraftKings, which is a bit more than I usually like to spend at such a weak position, but he is nevertheless a very strong option due to his matchup against the Jets. Gaskin is another option for our Dolphins stacks as he is priced in the mid-tier and should go extremely overlooked. On the Jets side of the ball, you will not catch me looking for a run-back as Joe “Elite?” Flacco will be taking the reigns of this offense. This is one of the most Jet-like moves we will see and this franchise just continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. You could try to get weird with a Corey Davis bring-back and hope that Flacco still has some elite in him, but only if you are MME-ing in a low-stakes tournament on Sunday.

B. Unfortunately we once again have a situation where we are targeting teams that have horrendous defensive units but also poor offensive units, which results in a one-sided team stack as opposed to correlated game stacks. The Browns will be the only team that I look to get exposure to in this game, as the Lions are down there with the Texans, Jets, and Jaguars in the dregs of the NFL. As for the Browns, they will be returning star RB Nick Chubb, with week 10 value lock smash play D’Ernest Johnson backing him up since Hunt remains out. We are not getting a discount on Chubb and it is always tricky targeting an RB coming back from injury, but he is certainly in play for tournaments. As far as the pass-catchers go, DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) has been putting together the best season of his career, although that is not saying much, while Jarvis Landry continues to struggle mightily. Landry is still the top option to pair up with Baker, although DPJ and tight ends Austin Hooper/David Njoku are also potential options that will not cost much in terms of salary, and also should come in at extremely low ownership.

C. To close things out for week 11 of the NFL, we finally have a game where we can look to get exposure to both sides, as the Bengals vs. the Raiders is an ideal game stack environment. Kicking things off with the Cinci side of the house, we have Joe Mixon as a popular RB option as he is priced just a hair below the top tier and I think he is in an excellent spot for Sunday. We can also get exposure to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd as a bit of a three-headed monster of wideouts. C.J. Uzomah has shown glimpses of a ceiling at the tight end position, but I would try to pick my spots and limit exposure to two of these four receivers in any single lineup. On the Raiders side of the football, we have another solid RB option in Josh Jacobs, who is significantly cheaper than Mixon and also in a better situation given his team is at home in a near pick ’em game. Hunter Renfrow is the clear top dog in this offense, and we can look to Waller although he has not been performing anywhere near the level that he was last season and his price has not come down quite enough to fully reflect that.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!

The grind continues on as we enter week 11 of the NFL season. We have 12 games on tap for us to target on the main slate including the alleged game of the week that everyone will be looking to target. I will be avoiding Cowboys vs. Chiefs for the purposes of this article because I expect that to be the highest owned game by far. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!

The QB’s

A. My strategy of targeting whatever offense is facing the New York Jets has worked out well so far this season, although it will really be put to the test this week. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD) will be at the helm as the Dolphins take on the Jets in an AFC East toilet bowl. I was wondering how the Falcons had managed to secure four wins despite being a horrendous football team, and then realized half of those wins were against the two teams playing in this game. The Jets are ranked dead last in team DVOA and dead last in DVOA against the pass. They are also vulnerable against the run, as they rank second to last in run DVOA and dead last in DvP against opposing running backs. Any way that you look at this matchup, it is favorable for the Fins and I expect their offense to roll in this spot even though they have not been impressive at all thus far this season. This game will not be popular at all despite having a middling total and a low spread so we can take advantage of the low ownership in tournaments.

B. Another team that we should look to buy low on in terms of both ownership and pricing is the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) is another extremely cheap quarterback option for us this Sunday with some upside due to the matchup. The Browns draw the hapless Detroit Lions, who unsurprisingly rank towards the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric. While this offensive/defensive line matchup ranks towards the middle of the pack in terms of sack potential, the Lions struggle to defend against both the pass and the run. The Browns are listed as double-digit favorites in this spot, and it is definitely a get-right opportunity after they were shellacked by the future super bowl champion New England Patriots last weekend. Target Baker and one or two of his weapons this weekend as a cheap and low-owned stack for GPPs.

C. With my first two quarterback options being on the more risky side of things, I will go a bit safer with my QB3 and target Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD). Burrow draws a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who rank below average in DVOA against the pass, and about average against the run. This is not exactly a dream matchup from a pace and DVOA perspective, but we do have what is surprisingly a top three total of the entire main slate, along with a very low 1 point spread. If there is an under the radar game that could turn into a shootout, this is certainly it. We have a plethora of options on both sides of the ball that I will cover below, but JB should be able to bounce back and post 20+ fantasy points after his brutal single digit effort against the Browns last time out.

The Stacks

A. One of my favorite best ball targets due to his boom or bust nature was Davante Parker, but I have had the absolute worst injury luck this year. Anyway, the Dolphins will be without him and instead rely on pass-catchers like Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Waddle is the only wideout that I have interest in from this team, but I have seen Gesicki getting a ton of buzz around the DFS industry leading up to Sunday. He is priced up at $5.2K on DraftKings, which is a bit more than I usually like to spend at such a weak position, but he is nevertheless a very strong option due to his matchup against the Jets. Gaskin is another option for our Dolphins stacks as he is priced in the mid-tier and should go extremely overlooked. On the Jets side of the ball, you will not catch me looking for a run-back as Joe “Elite?” Flacco will be taking the reigns of this offense. This is one of the most Jet-like moves we will see and this franchise just continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. You could try to get weird with a Corey Davis bring-back and hope that Flacco still has some elite in him, but only if you are MME-ing in a low-stakes tournament on Sunday.

B. Unfortunately we once again have a situation where we are targeting teams that have horrendous defensive units but also poor offensive units, which results in a one-sided team stack as opposed to correlated game stacks. The Browns will be the only team that I look to get exposure to in this game, as the Lions are down there with the Texans, Jets, and Jaguars in the dregs of the NFL. As for the Browns, they will be returning star RB Nick Chubb, with week 10 value lock smash play D’Ernest Johnson backing him up since Hunt remains out. We are not getting a discount on Chubb and it is always tricky targeting an RB coming back from injury, but he is certainly in play for tournaments. As far as the pass-catchers go, DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) has been putting together the best season of his career, although that is not saying much, while Jarvis Landry continues to struggle mightily. Landry is still the top option to pair up with Baker, although DPJ and tight ends Austin Hooper/David Njoku are also potential options that will not cost much in terms of salary, and also should come in at extremely low ownership.

C. To close things out for week 11 of the NFL, we finally have a game where we can look to get exposure to both sides, as the Bengals vs. the Raiders is an ideal game stack environment. Kicking things off with the Cinci side of the house, we have Joe Mixon as a popular RB option as he is priced just a hair below the top tier and I think he is in an excellent spot for Sunday. We can also get exposure to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd as a bit of a three-headed monster of wideouts. C.J. Uzomah has shown glimpses of a ceiling at the tight end position, but I would try to pick my spots and limit exposure to two of these four receivers in any single lineup. On the Raiders side of the football, we have another solid RB option in Josh Jacobs, who is significantly cheaper than Mixon and also in a better situation given his team is at home in a near pick ’em game. Hunter Renfrow is the clear top dog in this offense, and we can look to Waller although he has not been performing anywhere near the level that he was last season and his price has not come down quite enough to fully reflect that.

That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!