DFS MLB

What a mess weatherwise last night. And the overall pattern is the same this evening. Now we add PIT into the mix as well! So pay close attention to the weather in NYY, WSH (oh my gosh no!!!), ATL, CIN and PIT.

1. CLE/TEX: I’m going to group these two teams together because weatherwise/park factor-wise this is by far the best place for hitters tonight. Even though the weather really has not heated up yet, in 2019 Globe Life Park is a slightly favorable park for both runs and HRs. Last season, Globe Life was the overall best park for runs scored (just edging out Coors) and the third best park for HRs (according to ESPN’s park factors page that can be found here). Neither starter has been bad (Zach Plesac for Cleveland and Adrian Sampson for Texas) but neither has pitched in 90 degree heat and nearly a 70 degree dewpoint either yet this year. Add in the fact that TEX has a bad bullpen (4.66 ERA) and we could be looking at some fireworks. Note: CLE has the best bullpen in terms of ERA (3.25) in all of MLB. Bats like Francisco Lindor ($3,900 FD) and Carlos Santana ($3,900) are expensive but could be worth paying up for on the CLE side, while less expensive bats like Jason Kipnis ($2,500) and Jake Bauers ($2,800) give you potential pop at a savings. On the other side, Rougned Odor ($2,900) is extremely affordable while Shin-soo Chin ($3,600) and Elvis Andrus ($3,800) are more expensive options but could be worth it.
2. Games with a potential rain delay: This includes games in NYY, PIT, WSH, CIN and ATL. You will have to be on top of your game here. Look for any game(s) that is delayed to start AND one whose delay is announced late. The theory here is that the delayed start messes with the starting pitcher’s routine/mindset and when they do start the game, he could be bothered and ineffective. More difficult to predict are games with a lengthy in-game rain delay early. This raises the risk of the starter not coming back out (we saw short-lived rain delays in CIN and ATL last night where the starters did come back out and did fine) and asking the bullpen to go more innings than expected. Besides the closer and the seventh and eighth inning guys, the bullpen is full of pitchers who can not cut it as a starter, ie. they aren’t that good. This is especially true for small-market teams (PIT and CIN) and not NYY (where seemingly their whole bullpen is made up of ex-closers).
3. Brewers: Milwaukee’s deep and talented roster has the potential to go off at any time. Combining for only four hits off Joey Lucchesi and two relievers and being on the road for one of the last scheduled games timewise on the slate, you may never get lower ownership rates for the Brew Crew than tonight. And they get a young lefty starter named Logan Allen, who is making his first Major League appearance. DFS’ers, especially casual players, pay too much attention to two factors: how a player or team did recently and staying away from lefty on lefty matchups. Take advantage of these factors and do not be scared to fire up Christian Yelich ($4,800) and Mike Moustakas ($3,900). They may only get 1-2 ABs on the weak side of the platoon before they get into the generally soft Padres bullpen (4.77 ERA, 22nd in MLB).

What a mess weatherwise last night. And the overall pattern is the same this evening. Now we add PIT into the mix as well! So pay close attention to the weather in NYY, WSH (oh my gosh no!!!), ATL, CIN and PIT.

1. CLE/TEX: I’m going to group these two teams together because weatherwise/park factor-wise this is by far the best place for hitters tonight. Even though the weather really has not heated up yet, in 2019 Globe Life Park is a slightly favorable park for both runs and HRs. Last season, Globe Life was the overall best park for runs scored (just edging out Coors) and the third best park for HRs (according to ESPN’s park factors page that can be found here). Neither starter has been bad (Zach Plesac for Cleveland and Adrian Sampson for Texas) but neither has pitched in 90 degree heat and nearly a 70 degree dewpoint either yet this year. Add in the fact that TEX has a bad bullpen (4.66 ERA) and we could be looking at some fireworks. Note: CLE has the best bullpen in terms of ERA (3.25) in all of MLB. Bats like Francisco Lindor ($3,900 FD) and Carlos Santana ($3,900) are expensive but could be worth paying up for on the CLE side, while less expensive bats like Jason Kipnis ($2,500) and Jake Bauers ($2,800) give you potential pop at a savings. On the other side, Rougned Odor ($2,900) is extremely affordable while Shin-soo Chin ($3,600) and Elvis Andrus ($3,800) are more expensive options but could be worth it.
2. Games with a potential rain delay: This includes games in NYY, PIT, WSH, CIN and ATL. You will have to be on top of your game here. Look for any game(s) that is delayed to start AND one whose delay is announced late. The theory here is that the delayed start messes with the starting pitcher’s routine/mindset and when they do start the game, he could be bothered and ineffective. More difficult to predict are games with a lengthy in-game rain delay early. This raises the risk of the starter not coming back out (we saw short-lived rain delays in CIN and ATL last night where the starters did come back out and did fine) and asking the bullpen to go more innings than expected. Besides the closer and the seventh and eighth inning guys, the bullpen is full of pitchers who can not cut it as a starter, ie. they aren’t that good. This is especially true for small-market teams (PIT and CIN) and not NYY (where seemingly their whole bullpen is made up of ex-closers).
3. Brewers: Milwaukee’s deep and talented roster has the potential to go off at any time. Combining for only four hits off Joey Lucchesi and two relievers and being on the road for one of the last scheduled games timewise on the slate, you may never get lower ownership rates for the Brew Crew than tonight. And they get a young lefty starter named Logan Allen, who is making his first Major League appearance. DFS’ers, especially casual players, pay too much attention to two factors: how a player or team did recently and staying away from lefty on lefty matchups. Take advantage of these factors and do not be scared to fire up Christian Yelich ($4,800) and Mike Moustakas ($3,900). They may only get 1-2 ABs on the weak side of the platoon before they get into the generally soft Padres bullpen (4.77 ERA, 22nd in MLB).