DFS MLB

We have a pretty robust MLB DFS slate for Tuesday, April 13th. However, some games aren’t embedded in the key FanDuel slates for the day.

While there’s a 2:10pm game in Minnesota between the Twins and Red Sox, the game is completely ignored by FanDuel for MLB DFS. And the Phillies and Mets double-header was punted by FanDuel as well, likely because of the uncertainty the two games would bring to all of the slates.

So, that leaves us with a brief two-game Early Only slate which I’m going to avoid, but still a fairly robust ten game slate this evening (for some reason the game in Baltimore is also left off the slate). That’s where we’re going to focus all of our plays.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Ryan Yarbrough vs TEX ($6,200 FD)

This slate is actually chalk full of solid value plays. We have decent low-run, low xFIP, pitchers starting on the mound against poor-hitting high K-rate volume lineups, and with a cheap salary.

Speaking of high K-rates, Texas currently has a 30.8% strikeout rate, the third highest in baseball. The Rangers walk rate is also a low 8%, and their wRC+ recently nose-dived to 87, below league average, after a hot start.

After giving up six earned runs in five innings against the Red Sox, in Boston, Yarbrough may not stick out to a lot of MLB DFS players. But, pitching against the BoSox, in Boston, is very difficult.

This isn’t the same situation. We’re more likely to see the 5.2, four hit, no walks or ER’s, and three strikeouts that Ryan put up against the Marlins in his first start.

Likely, we’ll get better than that. For under $7K, you’re getting a very good shot at over 30 FanDuel points at the SP position. No other pitcher in this slate offers that type of value.

However, Fried and Odorizzi get darn close!

Honorable Mention: Max Fried vs MIA ($7,600 FD) / Jake Odorizzi vs DET ($6,700 FD)

MAIN Top Ace: Trevor Bauer vs COL ($11,000 FD)

Hopefully MLB didn’t confiscate ALL of Bauer mysterious baseball!

That odd issue aside, Bauer is one of the top arms in this slate, fanning 12 in each of his first two starts. The Rockies aren’t in Denver for this one, so I’m pretty confident Bauer will have a low earned run win in this game, but I’m not sure he’ll hit the 12 K celing.

Still, a quality start is a decent bet and we should at least get over 40 FanDuel points with this play.

Bieber and/or Giolito are a close 2nd/3rd behind Bauer, which pitching duel lined up for Chicago this evening.

Honorable Mention: Shane Bieber vs CWS ($11,200 FD) / Lucas Giolito vs CLE ($9,800 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: None

For the first time this season, I don’t see a solid punt play in a slate. We have our top arms, we have some fantastic value, and there are some decent plays, like Woodruff.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Danny Duffy vs LAA ($7,900 FD)

I realize Duffy had a great first outing against the Indians, in Cleveland, last week. He fanned five, walked two, and only gave up two hits with no earned runs and earned a quality start. Fine start.

But, Duffy is facing an Angels lineup on FIRE right now, currently with a 119 wRC+, fourth best in baseball right now. For nearly $8K, you could get really ripped off with this play.

Honorable Mention: Antonio Sanzatela @ LAD ($6,500)

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

OK, to give FanDuel some credit, the 2pm game in Minnesota does seem like it’s worth fading. There is a very solid chance for storms during that game, cancelling on postpointing the game.

However, that game aside, the weather looks surprisingly clear for a mid-April slate. Take it and run with it!

Top Stacks – MAIN

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – With the Red Sox out of the Main slate and the Dodgers racking up a 144 wRC+, by far the highest offensive production in this slate, they’re also by far the best stack against the weakest starting pitching, oh and in their home ballpark. But, they’re expensive!

Value Stacks – MAIN

1. Tampa Rays – I’m OK with stacking the Dodgers, especially if I have Yarbrough as my SP. But the Rays make it comfortably easy to do in this slate. You can find plenty of 4x value in guys like Brandon Lowe ($2,700 FD), Yandy Díaz ($2,600 FD), Yoshi Tsutsugo ($2,400), and Austin Meadows ($3,200 FD).

MLB DFS April 13th 2021 Summary

With the Red Sox off the board, the Dodgers are easily the best offensive stack. They’ll be chalky, but it’s going to be hard to win cash games without them in your lineup.

They’re also expensive, but Yarbrough as your SP and/or the Rays as your value stack, should be a high-value productive way to plug in as many Dodgers as you.

You can also go with Giolito or Bieber, Lucas being the lower of the two, if you’re looking for lower ownership at the SP spot. But Bauer is likely your top MLB DFS arm of the slate, he’s just going to be additional Dodgers chalk.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @MattyMcMatty17 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

For this week’s Thursday Aces and Bases MLB DFS plays, we’re going to focus solely on the MAIN slate. At the time of writing this post, FanDuel hasn’t created a slate for this evening’s games, except for applying them into the All Day slate.

I am not a fan of playing All Day slates with many games starting in the early afternoon and some following later in the evening. You often get yourself cornered into flipping lineup plays because of evolving lineups throughout the longer day.

Instead, I recommend using these plays for the Main slate, Express, and Late slates covering games starting at 1:10pm ET through 4:10pm ET.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Lance Lynn vs KC ($8,900 FD)

Top value and top Ace are debatable for this slate. Lynn gave up six hits and two walks in his first start of the season, facing a tough Angels lineup. Still, he was able to keep earned runs at zero, through 4.2 innings, and quickly piled up six strikeouts.

While the Royals had a quick hot start, they’re lineup is likely to continue to cool off, and they currently have a 27.7% K-rate against RHP’s like Lynn.

For just under $9K, this is one of your top two best shots at 30 to 40 FanDuel points at the SP position, and there’s a higher ceiling if Lynn and build a quality start.

Honorable Mention: None

MAIN Top Ace: Jose Berrios vs SEA ($9,600 FD)

I was high on Berrios for his first start against the Brewers, and he exceeded expectations no-hitting a perfect six innings piling up 12 K’s and winning a quality start for 64 FanDuel DFS MLB points.

Look, maybe he can’t replicate the same perfection against the Mariners, but the Brewers lineup is solid and in some ways comparable to the Mariners.

Also, the M’s have a 27.6% K-rate, so we can expect Berrios to march his K’s up toward the double-digits again, giving us a very solid shot at 40+ points. He’s a bit more expensive than Lynn, but the upside is more likely and therefore worth the salary.

Honorable Mention: Corbin Burnes @ STL ($9,400 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: Matt Harvey vs BOS ($6,500 FD)

I generally like to stay away from the Dark Knight since his massive drop-off over the last couple of seasons. However, I have a cousin who helped train Harvey in NJ over the winter break and the buzz is Harvey appears to be ‘fixing’ some of his issues.

Time will tell if that’s true, but his first 4.2 innings of the season against a very good Red Sox lineup was a good start.

He gave up six hits and one walk, but only two earned runs, and fanned four hitters. For $6.5K, you’re getting another decent shot at 20+ points against a good lineup, so likely low ownership.

If you’re looking for a decent punt play at the SP position, this is likely the best one.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Eduardo Rodriguez @ BAL ($8,200 FD)

I generally like Rodriquez because the hard-throwing hurler has high K-rate upside. However, Eduardo sometimes has control issues and is coming off the injured list for this start.

The BoSox claim Rodriquez has no innings limit, but I don’t think they truly know that until they see how he handles the first two innings.

There’s just entirely too much risk with this play, to spend THAT much money at the SP position.

Honorable Mention: Jake Arrieta @ CHC ($8,500 FD)

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

Chicago and St. Louis have the biggest weather-related risks of this slate. There’s a decent probability that the White Sox and Cardinals hosted games could at least see some rain showers, but may include some thunderstorms.

At worse, they seem like mostly just delay related. But, be prepared to have to flip some Royals, White Sox, Brewers, and Cardinals as we get better weather-related updates toward game-time.

Top Stacks – MAIN

1. Minnesota Twins – With a 115 wRC+ and .343 BABIP, the Twins offensive lineup has been a top five play so far this season. The Mariners lefty Marco Gonzales is on the mound, and the Twins have plenty of righties to stack against the struggling southpaw.
2. Boston Red Sox – I realize I recommended Harvey as a solid punt play, but even if Matt has a good outing, the Red Sox are likely to get some solid production off the O’s bullpen. They’re just too good of an offensive lineup to pass on stacking.

Value Stacks – MAIN

1. Pittsburgh Pirates – Look, I’m not high on Jake Arrieta in this slate, but that’s not why I like the Pirates. Also, I realize Pittsburgh’s lineup isn’t the most formidable, but they should get at least four runs across the plate today. And their top five in the lineup are DIRT CHEAP.

MLB DFS April 8th 2021 Summary

We have nine games throughout the day today, two starting around 1pm ET and two more starting later in the evening, 7 and 8pm ET. The other five games, the bulk of the slate, start between 3 and 4pm ET.

So, the most attractive slates to play are the Main, Express, and Late games eliminating the 7/8pm games, with the exception of the All Day slate. I’m ignoring the All Day slate, as there’s too much lineup risk, and focusing solely on the Main slate, and using these recommendations for the Express and Late slates as well.

Berrios and Lynn are the top pitchers we’re focused on, with Harvey as a potential punt play. Burnes is also worth a solid consideration at the SP position.

For stacks, the Twins and Red Sox should pile up the most runs in this slate, and the Pirates make them easily affordable.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @MattyMcMatty17 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

For this Tuesday’s Aces and Bases MLB DFS plays, we’re going to look at both the Early Only and MAIN FanDuel slate options. The Early Only slate has ten teams to pick through, which is plenty, and the Main slate is loaded as well.

On split-slate days like today, I tend to play both big slates for MLB DFS as you have plenty of GPP and Cash options.

We’ll take a look at the MLB schedule, ignore the 1PM ET game, and lay out your top values and plays for SP’s in the Early Only and MAIN slate, as well as top hitting stacks.

Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.

Here’s a look at the schedule for this slate as well as the current pitching match-ups:

MLB DFS: The Aces – Early Only

Early Only Best Value: Zack Greinke @ LAA ($9,300 FD)

I understand this play may seem a bit risky and expensive, on the surface, but that’s exactly why it’s a good value. Greinke has the third best career xFIP, 3.51, of the Early Only SP’s, only behind Cole and Scherzer. He’s one of the best options you have in this slate.

The Angels do have some big bats, but 0.91 HR/9 innings is one of the lowest in this slate and the Halos are fanning at around a 26% K-rate against RHP’s like Zack.

Cole and Scherzer are also going to lower Greinke’s ownership, making Zack a fully rounded value play for Early Only SP’s.

Honorable Mention: Dylan Bundy vs HOU

Early Only Top Ace(s): Gerrit Cole vs BAL ($11,000 FD) / Max Scherzer vs ATL ($10,500 FD)

I’m a little hesitant to go with Max after the Nats had to consistently postpone his start numerous times. Delaying a starting pitcher can be detrimental to their pitching performance.

But, the Nats basically just pushed Scherzer’s start out a week, sort of keeping him within his consistent rotation. Also, Max has a nearly 30% K-rate, the highest career K-rate of this group. He’s also a bit cheaper than Cole. He’s absolutely worth a Top Ace play.

The Orioles are fanning at a nearly 27% K-rate against RHP’s like Cole. Gerrit is pitching at the top of his career level. This is a no-brainer pick. The only problem is the value. Cole really limits your offensive weapons.

Honorable Mention: None, although I’d put Greinke in this category as well.

Early Only Punt Play: Wade Miley vs PIT ($6,200 FD)

Miley is debatably an MLB DFS value play for FanDuel in the Early Only slate. You do have a pretty solid shot of getting three to five K’s from Miley, who’s Reds are hosting the Pirates early this evening.

Asking for a quality start point bump may be too much to ask, but he could also squeeze out the win, making him a 15 to 25 FD point play for a darn cheap salary.

Regardless, Miley’s salary allows you to absolutely load up on heavy hitters.

Honorable Mentions: None

Early Only Top Fade: Dean Kremer @ NYY ($6,500)

Kremer is a young pitching prospect for the Orioles, so this pick is intriguing. But you’re better off picking Miley at this salary range, and the Yankees bats could make you REALLY regret picking Kremer.

Honorable Mention: John Gant @ MIA

MLB DFS: The Bases – Early Only

The good news with the weather forecast for Tuesday is that the Early Only slate appears to be mostly clear. There shouldn’t been too many weather-related stats inflation either.

Top Stacks – Early Only

1. New York Yankees – Kremer could surprise us, although with the Yankees ownership fairly high in this slate, that may not hurt you too much with this stack. The upside is worth it, but they’re expensive because they’re obviously very popular.

Value Stacks – Early Only

1. Miami Marlins – The Marlins don’t have the sexist lineup, and there is some risk with his play because the Cardinals could go with a slew of RP’s during this game, and we don’t know what we’re going to get. But, Gant’s 4.40 ERA and 1.33 WHIP has me hopeful for a good start.

MLB DFS: The Aces – MAIN

MAIN Best Value: Freddy Peralta @ CHC ($6,400 FD)

Look, you have at least five other pitchers who will likely yield more MLB DFS points for you like, Darvish (see Top Aces), Kershaw, Giolito, Glasnow, and Paxton.

But, Peralta fanned six hitters in just two innings in his first outing. I don’t know if Freddy will be on the mound for more than a few innings, but his K-rate is high enough to get you over 20 FanDuel point for a dirt-cheap salary.

It’s hard to argue that type of value in this slate.

Honorable Mention: None

MAIN Top Ace(s): Yu Darvish vs SF ($10,200 FD)

I realize there are a lot of good arms in this slate and that should hopefully flatten SP ownership a bit. But, Darvish is an obvious slam-dunk pick here.

SF’s hitters are currently fanning at over a 36% K-rate against RHP’s this season, the worst (or highest) rate in baseball right now. While Darvish gave up eight hits and four ER’s against the DBacks in his first outing, he also fanned six in 4.1 innings.

Even with another bad outing, Yu likely gives you 20 to 30 points. But, the Giants offense is currently worse than the Diamondbacks across all advanced metrics, so it’s possible we get 40 to 60 points with a quality start and win from Darvish in this slate.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw @ OAK ($9,000 FD)

MAIN Punt Play: Tanner Roark @ TEX ($6,100 FD)

I’m trying hard to avoid a punt play in this slate because there are so many solid value options, but if you REALLY want a huge chunk of salary for big bats and want to take a shot at a low-owned SP with some potential upside, that’s Roark.

The risk is big though. The Rangers bats are hot right now and they’re still comfortably at home in Texas. Roark could get CRUSHED, but he could also give you a surprise 20 to 30 points with a good outing against a Rangers offense that should ultimately hit a wall.

Honorable Mentions: None

MAIN Top Fade: Luke Weaver @ COL ($5,700 FD)

Weaver has a very high ERA, WHIP, and xFIP and is pitching in a very hitter-friendly Coors Field. Avoid Weaver at all costs, unless you want to do some insanely high-risk GPP play.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Sanchez @ SD

MLB DFS: The Bases – MAIN

The only game with weather-related risk is the D-Back and Rockies in Denver, CO. There’s a solid chance for storms and rain throughout the evening, making a Rockies or D-Backs stack risky.

That game, aside, we’re clear!

Top Stacks – MAIN

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – Bassitt is a solid pitcher, but he’s facing one of the most efficient bats in baseball so far this season. He’s likely going to allow five to eight on base before he’s yanked in the fourth or fifth inning. They’re expensive, but worth it.
2. San Diego Padres – Last week these guys were one of my value stacks. Since then, they’ve hit a lot of home runs and inflated many offensive lineups and are now expensive. But, still a top stack against Aaron Sanchez.

Value Stacks – MAIN

1. Tampa Rays – This could be a sneaky play. The Rays aren’t crushing the ball so far this season, only scoring four runs per game. BUT, they’re facing a vulnerable Martin Perez in Boston today and are dirt-cheap across the lineup, even in the heart of the lineup.

MLB DFS April 6th 2021 Summary

In both the Early Only and MAIN FanDuel MLB DFS slates for Tuesday, April 6th, we have solid top Aces with targeted value plays at SP as well.

For the Early Only slate, our focus is pretty narrow, and I’d stick with what I’ve recommended. However, for the MAIN slate, you have more options to play around with several lineups. This makes the MAIN slate a more attractive GPP play, and the Early Only a better Cash option.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter @MattyMcMatty17 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.