The Memorial Tournament will be the first time in history, The PGA will host back-to-back events at the same course. Muirfield Village will look to play a little more difficult the second time around, as the course should be drying out. Officials are letting the rough grow out and greens should be running at speeds between 13-14 on the Stimpmeter (after last weeks average of 11). Jack Nickaulas designed courses are tricky as the greens are guarded by deep bunkers and water hazards. DraftKings has dealt us some soft pricing for this field of golfers that ranks the highest in strength for a non-major event in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) era. There are also only 133 golfers in the field compared to last weeks 156, and this should give us a higher percentage of golfers that will make the cut.
With the strength of this field being so high, we should see ownership spread out more evenly than the last few tournaments. I have to assume that a majority of DraftKings entries will be built using a balanced approach. For Instance, 6 golfers in the $8K-$9K range certainly looks enticing. as we’ve seen a very small percentage of lineups squeeze 6 of 6 golfers through the cut line since the re-start. I may not put as much emphasis on looking at ownership this week, but may look to use more of a stars-n-scrubs type roster construction to gain leverage on the field of entrants. I’m not saying to ignore ownership percentages all together, but there may be some other ways to obtain said leverage in smaller guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests. Obviously in cash games, balance will be king.
I’veopened my model up a bit to include more stats to look at. I’vealso incorporated looks at both the last 3 months and the last 50rounds so I could get a good view of the entire field. (listed inorder of weighted importance)
SG:APP
P4:450-500
SG;OTT
SG:ARG
Prox:150-175
OpportunitiesGained
P3:200-225
SG:Putting
SG:P5
I don’t have the space, time, or energy to list them all. An argument can be made either for, or against most of the golfers at this weeks Memorial Tournament. Let me just give you some things to consider while constructing your lineups.
PatrickCantlay ($9800) Too cheap. Popping in every statistical metric. Greatrecent form, and history here. Most likely the highest ownership, butI’ll eat this chalk and look for leverage elsewhere.
BrysonDeChambeau ($11100) Obviously a beast in every metric to look at. Soexpensive that he may come in low owned compared to the field andprovide some much needed leverage in a stars-n-scrubs type of build.Keep an eye on his ownership and jump if he comes in too low.
JonRahm ($9300) Starting to gain popularity after finally putting hisgame together and shooting an 8 under last Sunday here at TheWorkday. If he’s on, he’s way too cheap.
XanderSchauffele ($9200) Sneaky good vs. strong fields in his career.Strong metrics and history across the board. In an interesting spotsqueezed between Rahm, Koepka, and Tiger.
Tiger Woods ($9000) Keep an eye on ownership here. I’ve seen it predicted all over the place. His age or the lengthy lay-off may scare some away, but Woods is almost always great coming off lay-offs. Tiger has won The Memorial Tournament 5 times, and is just one win away from claiming a record 83rd PGA title. This is arguably his favorite course on tour. This salary is simply too cheap for one of the greatest iron players in my lifetime.
JustinRose ($8900) Sneaky GPP candidate after burning everyone last week.No ownership and great history here.
GaryWoodland ($8600) Went back to his old driver last week and theresults SG:OTT came back as well. Could easily surprise everyone thisweek.
Paul Casey ($7900) DraftKings made a mistake with his salary as Paul comes in high on the statistical board. He hasn’t placed in the top 10 this year, but he’s a bonafide cut maker.
SergioGarcia ($7800) His game is steadily improving since coming over fromthe Euro. Always plays tough in strong fields and statisticallystrong in everything except putting. Poor putters have won hereplenty of times and Sergio’s low ownership could be a key thisweek.
Marc Leishman ($7800) Throw him in the same mix as Rose. Strong in all the metrics, great history, and upside to win outright. Burned everyone bad last week (including me). At this salary, with no ownership, he makes a strong GPP play this week if you’ve got the nerve.
HarrisEnglish ($7300) Another golfer popping high in all the metrics and agenuine cut maker. Also seems to be unusually cheap at this salary.
KevinNa ($7200) If his back is good, he’s too cheap. He’ll either burnyou and withdraw, or finish in the top 5. Good luck value GPP dart.
Here’s a list some honorable mentions I’m looking at as well.
Upper:DJ, Morikawa, Hideki, and Koepka
Mid:Rickie, Berger, Ancer, and Reed
Lower:Doc, Hadwin, Glover, Dahmen, Steele, and Varner
Idon’t know that I feel it’s necessary to go this low, but…
Darts:Homa, McNealy, Lanto, Bud, Wiesberger, and Duncan
I know it’s a lot to consider but I just wanted to give you some of my personal thoughts after hours of research for The Memorial Tournament. I highly encourage everyone to join us in the Discord chat room as the other writers and I break down some of our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone how to succeed at playing DFS and earn some extra money doing something we love.
We’ve got an interesting set up for the next two weeks as the PGA Tour will have back to back tournaments on the same course. This article we will be looking at the Workday Charity Open DFS picks. We will be looking for ball strikers yet again this week and we will be looking for a bit more accuracy off the tee relative to last week. It’s only Monday and this is merely an initial look at golfers I like, but if last week wass any indication, my early picks set up well for success. Stay tuned for a ton of content coming this week from the Win Daily Golf Team including more picks, ownership projections and modeling. Please jump in Discord as these picks develop. And watch the Win Daily Show Livestream and podcast tomorrow night at 8:30 for more on this tournament, including an early look at projected ownership. Get your DraftKings lineups reserved and ready to go!
Patrick Cantlay (10600) – If you’re looking for a guy who is great OTT and who is great on APP you have found him in Patrick Cantlay. After a long lay off, he came back to the Travelers and finished 11th two weeks ago. Cantlay finished 1st here last year and 4th the year prior. It appears that he is picking his spots since the restart, and although he’ll be chalky, he picked wisely in joining the field this week.
John Rahm (10900) – Rahm has been unimpressive since the restart, and frankly, feels relatively forgotten among the elite players. After taking the week off last week, I expect an energized and precise golfer who we can trust to gain strokes in all departments. I’m assuming Rahm will be less owned than most golfers in this elite price range.
Xander Shaufele (10200) – With my lineups likely being comprised of two elite golfers (stars and scrubs), I will probably be jamming in two elite golfers as my base this week. Xander will be one of those three as he is also great OTT and on APP and has flirted with outright wins since the restart. The real question here is which Xander shows up but I trust he’ll be focused and ready after taking a week off. He was 14th here last year.
Collin Morikawa (9200) – May not be as chalky as normal as he’s coming off two very unimpressive performances (and his first missed cut, ever). Add to that how hot Viktor Hovland is and that he is near Collin’s price range, and you may have some value here. Morikawa took last week off and hopefully he’s in reset mode as prior to the mini-struggles, his iron play was excellent. Happy to roll the dice here.
Adam Hadwin (8200) – Coming off a 4th place finish at the Rocket Mortgage this guy was a value machine last week and continues to present value this week. Gains strokes in every category and is prone to having a hot putter. While I think Hadwin will garner a lot of interest, I don’t think he’ll be as popular as Woodland who will be only one hundred dollars more expensive. It’s noteworthy that Hadwin’s track record here is not very good.
Joel Dahmen (7700) – The strokes gained metrics jump off the page with Joel Dahmen and his results are bearing that out. Dating back to the API, Dahmen has made four cuts in a row and three of those have been Top 20. Like most golfers in this range, Dahmen is prone to the bad day here and there but his upside is too good to leave him out of your lineups. Likely to be chalky in this range so find your GPP leverage elsewhere.
Corey Conners (7600) – Not going to lie, this one gives me a ton of trepidation (look it up, it’s a word you’re going to want to incorporate into your vernacular. Yes, look that one up too). But I can’t ignore Conners game OTT and on APP. The good news for Conners is that there have been plenty of bad putters who have succeeded on this course. Not a ‘core’ play for me but absolutely going to be included in some lineups.
Ryan Armour (7400) – Feels like I’m chasing value instead of projecting value with this pick, but I just can’t ignore back to back tournaments with finishes in the top six. His strokes gained metrics don’t jump off the page by any means, but he has looked locked in the past couple of weeks. The price here seems reasonable and I think most people in this price range will be jumping on Tringale, Hubbard, McNealy or Sabbatini. Armour is by far the least ‘sexy’ of those names. Only a few sprinkles of Armour for me.
Matthew NeSmith (6800) – Coming off a missed cut at the Travelers we have a guy who has an inexpensive stock but has the numbers to make the cut and make some weekend noise. An up and comer who is very good on APP and T2G. NeSmith made two cuts immediately prior to the Travelers and I think he presents value at this low price.
Chesson Hadley (6500) – I’m back on the Hadley train this week. He was one shot away from making the cut last week which is unimpressive but not terrible considering his price. He’s still one of the better options in this range on APP and he’s not bad OTT either. I’m looking for positive regression here and I trust ownership will be even lower this week after a missed cut last week.
Henrik Norlander (6500) – He’s made two cuts in a row and is coming off a very impressive 12th place last week at the Rocket Mortgage. Accuracy off the tee should factor into the analysis this week and Norlander was 1st last week in that department. His approach game hasn’t been outstanding this year but he is in the positive category. This is a guy that can do some damage for your lineups as long as he can be ok with the putter (a category where he typically loses strokes).
As mentioned above, The Win Daily team has plenty more to come. Enjoy this initial look at targets and start reserving your lineups for the Workday Charity Open DFS. Check out the upcoming articles, hope in the Win Daily Sports Expert Discord Chat, and the Win Daily Show with me and Michael Rasile at 8:30 pm tomorrow night on the @WinDailySports Twitter page!
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and helping you find some winning teams!
The PGA DFS pricing is a little tight again this week if you’re trying to fit in a couple $10K+ guys, so we’ve got a big list for you to choose from.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,700) – Beefy (and snacky!) Bryson is the betting favorite, but the irons failed him a bit last week and I might get more shares of the guys who are just a little cheaper.
Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Webb’s last start was an impressive victory, and he’s second in my model after Viktor Hovland. I won’t go overboard but I’ll be fine coming in around (or a little over) the field ownership rate in multi-entry GPPs.
Tyrell Hatton (DK 10,700) – I have a good feeling about T2G monster Hatton turning this golden opportunity into another Top 5 finish, and he’s got the chops on Par 4s (and on the greens) to win. Giddyup.
Patrick Reed (DK $10,500) – Reed is never super-popular and I think he’s starting to heat up, shooting 64 on Sunday at the Travelers. He’s a great GPP play with winning upside.
Victor Hovland (DK $10,000) – This could be the week to go way overboard on Hovland and double the field ownership percentage in GPPs. The price jump may scare folks off but the field is weak and he’s just getting better and better since resuming play.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama,Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler (GPP)
Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – I’ve been burned by a popular Tony Finau before, but he’s got ten straight rounds under par and I’m going right back to the well with him on a Par 4-heavy course he should be able to dominate.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,000) – This is Scottie’s type of event – from the field strength to the focus stat categories. He’s fifth in my model rankings this week and the MC last week will keep his ownership low.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $8,800) – Sabbatini (T14 and T21 in his last two starts) is a pretty good iron player who has an excellent chance of making the cut, and sometimes he gets hot and into low numbers because of his consistent scoring opportunities. The Aussie is 18th in my model this week and could work for cash games as well.
J.T. Poston (DK $8,700) – Throw out last week and focus on what JT does best – eat up Par 4s and excel T2G on Ross designs. A snazzy putter and excellent GPP play who could be a difference-maker.
Doc Redman (DK $8,500) – He’s getting more popular and the word is out about his wonderful ball striking, and he’s 3-for-3 since the break with a pair of Top 25s. Fade him at your own risk.
Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $8,300) – Solid all-around game, and the first-timer designation isn’t an issue with so many playing this track for the first time.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – He’ll likely be popular at this price (way too low) and the pop stroke could work well here again. He’s just got to avoid the big numbers.
Also consider: Bubba Watson, Lucas Glover, Erik Van Rooyen, Adam Hadwin, Maverick McNealy
Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Scott Stallings isn’t a name that normally inspires confidence, but he’s popping in my models and he’s coming off a big T6 at the Travelers.
Will Gordon (DK $7,300) – I’m a believer in making the most of opportunities and talent, and that’s been a great combo for Gordon. There’s a shot at a letdown but we’ve seen stories like this before.
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Stanley should have notched a Top 10 last week before the putter went cold, and he’s just too valuable at this price to pass up.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,100) – The Colombian gives himself chances and last week’s MC was a disappointment for a guy with such great ball-striking ability. The price is right for the upside in GPPs.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – I’ve said it many times, if Grillo can get hot with the putter, he’s got a chance to win. He’s tops in the field for both SG: APP and Opportunities Gained.
Tyler Duncan (DK $7,000) – Two solid rounds sandwiching two so-so ones got him a T32 finish last week, and I like him to make the cut and finish in the Top 40 or so again. Worth a look.
Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s got an outside shot at a Top 20 here after a T37 last week and solid numbers in SG:APP and overall.
Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600) – Tringale finished T5 here last year, he’s super cheap, and he’s easily one of my favorite options this week for value. Homeboy checks all the boxes and got a start under his belt last week, even if he missed the cut.
More value golfers forGPPs: Joseph Bramlett, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard, Peter Uihlein, HarryHiggs, Matthew Wolff, Chesson Hadley, Andrew Putnam
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – Eighth in my model and the weaker field should be les of an intimidator on Thursday and Friday. We need some cheap guys to make the cut and get hot, and he’s one.
Josh Teator (DK $6,400) – Another punt from my mixed model cheatsheet, Teator is an all-or-nothing type player who misses cuts (he made it here last year) or finishes well. Don’t go overboard – he’s worth a look in 5-7 percent of GPPs.
Tyler McCumber (DK $6,300) – Purely a gut play because of decent ball-striking/approach numbers and a golden opportunity here.
I know I’m crazy for considering: Wes Bryan (DK $6,500), Jonathan Byrd (DK $6,100), Roger Sloan (DK $6,200)
Thanks for checking this article PGA DFS Picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! Make sure to hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat and look out for more articles on WinDailySports.com!
In this edition of PGA Picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Travelers Championship DFS and helping you find some winning teams! DraftKings is offering new users a FREE entry to the Milli Maker by depositing into your account!
ADDITIONAL NOTE ON DK PRICING: Pricing has gotten considerably more difficult this week, so if you plan on rostering a couple of the 9500 and up golfers, you’re going to need some gems in the $6-7K range.
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,200) – Rory’s engine has been idling a bit since returning to action, but he’s always a threat and the enormous price could keep folks off him this week. He’s still third overall in my models and doesn’t need a narrative to win here.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – Thomas sits atop my rankings this week and I’ll be using him in about half of my teams despite a lack of Top Ten finishes at this venue. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers and Proximity from the 125-175 range mean he’ll be getting plenty of scoring opportunities.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,500) – He’s fresh off a win at the Heritage and has three Top 15s at the Travelers since 2011. Simpson is also popping on my models, ranking second overall between JT and Rory.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – The main concern with Cantlay is rust, since he hasn’t played an event since mid-February. He’s sporting two T15 finishes in his two tries at TPC River Highlands in 2018 and 2019.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Schauffele’s course history is lacking (T14 in 2017 and MC in 2018), and his play at Harbour Town was spotty, so this is more of a “trust the models” tournament play. He’s a more dangerous player when he’s off the radar anyway.
Also consider: BrysonDeChambeau, Jon Rahm (GPP)
Collin Morikawa (DK $9,100) – Morikawa finished 36th last year in his first try and seems like a good fit for this course. He’s on my radar in both cash and GPP.
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,000) – The form is magnificent and he’s sporting some obscenely good numbers with his approaches, but he still hasn’t broken through. I expect Ancer to be popular but I use him a lot and if I didn’t here – and he won – I’d lose my mind.
Paul Casey (DK $8,900) – A true horse for the course, Casey has never finished worse than T17 in five tries here and has four Top 5s. He’s had a couple tough second-place losses (in 2015 and 2018) but the memories can’t be that bad.
Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Woodland goes through rough stretches but usually rights the ship quickly, and his iron game seems more refined since the break. I’ll take another crack in the hopes that his putter gets hot.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,900) – Niemann looked great last week and this course (where he debuted with a T5 last season) demands of the short irons as well.
Brian Harman (DK $7,600) – Harman sports a third-place finish at River Highlands (2015) and has been inside the top 10 here the past two years. He’s also in the top 30 of my mixed condition model and won’t break the bank at just $7,600.
Also consider: Sungjae Im, JordanSpieth, Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Marc Leishman
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,400) – The results here speak for themselves, and I can’t imagine he’ll be over 10% owned.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,300) – Reavie won here last year and he cracks the Top 60 in my model. He’s got a strong T2G game but makes for a risky GPP play.
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – His putting numbers on Bentgrass/Poa are excellent and he’s a solid off-the-radar play with plenty of upside.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,800) – I’m a little worried about two MCs in two tries here, but he fares well in my models and should be very low-owned. GPP only.
Russell Knox (DK $6,700) – He’s missed six straight cuts dating back to early February but I’ll give him a shot as a value play in 1/10 GPPs for his ballstriking/approach numbers.
More value golfers forGPPs: Corey Conners, Harold Varner, Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Danny Lee, DocRedman, Matthew NeSmith, Stewart Cink
Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,500) – I can’t get off playing this guy, who keeps showing up on early leaderboards and in my models. If only he could put together three or four rounds.
Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – Hoge is cheap, he’s inexplicably ranked fourth overall in my model (between Rory and Cantlay) and he’s tops in the field for Par 4 efficiency (400-450).
Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,300) – Grillo has many flaws, the main one being his horrendous putting, but his SG: APP numbers jump off the page.
Adam Long (DK $6,300) – Among the Top 25 in my models, we’ve seen stellar play from Long on occasion, and he finished T21 in his debut here last season.
Kyle Stanley (DK $6,200) – Like Grillo and Byeong Hun An, his putting is his fatal flaw. But the ball-striking is amazing. GPP only.
Cameron Percy (DK $6,200) – A super longshot play, Percy might not crack over 1 percent ownership. But the models say he could play well and he’s made 3/3 (initial) cuts here.
Thanks for checking out this article on The Travelers Championship DFS! Make sure to enjoy more Golf DFS info over at WinDailySports.com/Golf. You can also hop into our Expert Discord Chat to discuss your lineups one on one with our DFS pros.
Last week Rory Mclroy was an 8-1 favorite, his salary was 11,800. Based on his odds, it should have been 16,300. For that to happen the top tier would have gone way over 11,000 and the lowest tier would be way under 6 K. DraftKings makes “adjustments” to smooth out the entry pool. The guy who won a million last week won a million 6 months ago. How? He had an average of a 15% owned team with two sub 5% players, he didn’t even have the winner, didn’t need him to take down a million. There is a way.
Most of us, including myself a while back, would sweat and spend time picking our core, 3 to 4 golfers we liked, and then pick the last two based on whatever salary we had left. We’ve all done that. Take one team, just one, start at the bottom two players, spend the time to study them, and make your picks from the bottom up. You’ll have plenty left over for your top end golfers afterwards, and it may help improve your cash flow.
Web Simpson is at 24% ownership and rising. He is the highest owned player. Bryson DeChambeau is next at 20% and holding, followed by Justin Thomas at 19% and rising, then Gary Woodland at 18%, Kuchar, Schauffele, and Rory, along with Sunjae IM are 17%. Colin Morikawa, whose poster is rumored to be over Patrick Scott’s bed, and Hedeki are at 16%, along with Tyrrell Hatton. Justin Rose and DJ are at 15%. Justin Rose fired his coach of 11 years this afternoon. DJ is at 14%, Tony Finau and John Rahm are at 13%, Jordan Spieth, Ian Poulter, Billy Horschel, and Matthew Fitzpatrick are between 10 and 11% now. An, Berger,Hovland,Hadwin,Sabbatini,Ancer, and Furyk are all sub 10%. Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Luke Donald,Shane Lowry, Brandt Snedeker, and Christian Bezuidenhout are all at 6% or lower.
Upper Tier | DraftKings
With Rorys blow up last Sunday you can expect his 17% ownership to stay steady, and it is lower than Simpson, JT, DeChambeau, and Woodland. My move from him would be to Rahm, who was 7th last week in gaining strokes tee to green, his putter was his downfall. He may be the only single digit heavy on the top tier.
Mid Tier | DraftKings
Hideki has 10% less ownership than Simpson and they rate pretty equal. Kuchar, Woodland, and Hatton have really strong approach games, a key metric to this needle thin fairway tournament. Their ownership is an issue, if you play one or more, make sure you go to a low owned player(s)to offset the heavy chalk. Patrick Reed is popular with 16.5 % ownership and is a strong play according to the models.
Lower Tier | DraftKings
Harris English, Tyrell Hatton, Kevin Kisner, Shane Lowry, Jim Furyk and Mathew Fitzpatrick are all solid low owned plays. The model likes B. An and Poulter and Lowry
Hatton is the highest owned at 16%, make sure you have someone low owned to go with, especially if you carry top tier talent on your team.
Last week I had Adam Hadwin and Brian Harmon, they are picks this week as well, along with Ryan Moore, and Christian Bezuidenhout.
Extreme Longshots: Russel Knox and JT Poston
Lower End Golfers with Top 20 Upside | DraftKings
R. Sabbatini
Ian Poulter
B.An
Luke Donald
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Victor Hovland
Brandt Snedeker
Ryan Moore
Jim Furyk
Hopefully this RBC Heritage Ownership Percentage breakdown is helpful! The players above are part of that group that can help you increase your ROI. There is some expected weather that may benefit the morning tee times, check the weather report for updates for Showdown. Make sure to hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord chat to ask questions to myself and the other pros! Check out the other articles we have on the site, too! Good Luck tomorrow, and I hope to be with you, in the money.
The time is near, we have the PGA to thank.
Let’s comb thru this data of the Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown, and put the money in the bank! Let’s all go try and take down that Million Dollars from DraftKings!
Last year the Colonial played as the 7th hardest course relative to par. It ranked near the bottom in strength of field. Not anymore.
Rory McILroy and Web Simpson will battle it out for top ownership %, presently at 24% and rising.
They are followed by John Rahm, Sunjae IM, Patrick Reed and Colin Morikawa (sorry Patrick) at 18% ownership and on an uptick.
Justin Thomas and Xander Shauffele are holding steady at 15%.
English, Kuchar, DJ, Na, Fowler, and Spieth are between 10 and 14%.
DeChambeau, Hovland, An, Fitzpatrick (my compliments Jason), Moore and Lowry are all sub 10 percent, ranging from 8% down to 5%.
The reason I mention these golfers above is that they all have a high percentage to make the cut, and a 20% + chance to make top 20 in the tourney, with the exception of Jordan Spieth, who is still a respectable 15% to make top 20. The following players deserve a mention as well.
M Leishman – 11% owned, 27% to T20
K Kisner – 11% owned 19% to T20
C.Conners – 11% owned 18% to T20
J. Day – 7% owned 25% to T20
R Moore, S Lowry, C Reavie, V Taylor, R Knox,C. Bezuidenhout, B Cauley, T Hoge all are under 5% ownership with 15% odds to make T 20.
At first I was high on Rahm, after he said he’s just “praying not to shank the first 7 balls I hit…and I just need to work the rust off.” I’m going to pass and look hard at Rory and Bryson, with JT following closely behind Bryson. Also I wasn’t planning on rostering Koepka, after he said “my game is really coming around, after the Players it’s now a million times better.” Okay, that’s a few lineups for me, thank you. Sunjae Im has been playing 5 hours every day, so he is ready. Kevin Na: “I spent all my time at home, loved it, didn’t play any golf, I may be a bit rusty.” Sergio just had a baby! Congrats, No roster for you!
If you are playing in a high player GPP I wouldn’t go with more than 1 of the high priced players, and to be contrarian, I don’t feel it’s necessary to roster any. Web Simpson is popping all over my models, at 25% ownership, I may put him in 1 lineup in multiples and pivot to a lower owned choice, grudgingly.
In the mid tier it’s Day, Kuchar and Sheffler popping, with Day being one of the best contrarian pivots due to ownership,value,and a decent short game.
| Golfers of Note | Odds to make cut (%) | Odds to T20(%) |
| Xander S | 74.2 | 37.6 |
| P Reed | 70.9 | 34.3 |
| Sunjae IM | 69.7 | 33.8 |
| C Morikawa | 69.6 | 32.9 |
| DJ | 69.1 | 32.0 |
| S Scheffler | 68.9 | 30.9 |
| R Fowler | 66.9 | 28.6 |
| M Fitzpatrick | 66.4 | 28.1 |
| M Kuchar | 65.9 | 27.9 |
| B Koepka | 63.9 | 25.8 |
| J Day | 62.7 | 24.2 |
| T Finau | 62.6 | 22.9 |
| D Berger | 59.8 | 19.7 |
| R Sabbatini | 57.5 | 18.4 |
| K Kisner | 56.3 | 17.5 |
| D Lee | 53.2 | 15.6 |
| M Homa | 50.7 | 14.2 |
Max was the last to be close, although he didn’t quite hit the 15%, he has the short game to get a pass.
Adam Hadwin, B An, Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel and Harris English are the top value plays with Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Bryan Harmon and Conners secondary value plays.
Deep deep sleepers: Munoz, Cauley, Duncan, Redmon, Cabrera-Bello, Stricker, Todd, – roster if you’re feeling frosty!
If you don’t see your golfers name listed anywhere above, it’s because of ownership, value, DraftKings pricing or data, and it doesn’t mean you can’t roster him. I haven’t listed any golfers with a less than 50% chance to make the cut, and at least a 15% chance to make the top 20. I feel the best golfers to get you the money are there, and I’ll be glad to answer any queries in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat once the writers reports are in. Make sure to keep checking Win Daily Sports for all the up to date news on all your Golf bets and DFS plays.
As always, I hope to see you there, in the money.
In this article Steven Polardi give his Charles Schwab Challenge DraftKings Breakdown.
Hello everyone, the PGA is back, with the sponsor Charles Schwab hosting the Colonial in Dallas. DraftKings has a $3 million, (first place $1 million) golf contest, a $20 entry, with a sweetener, for every day of the tourney DraftKings will split a $50k bonus with everyone who rosters the low golfer of the day. You might have to split that with a few strangers, but $200k free money is free money. Texas has been under COVID restrictions, there has been little play and the course is in good playing condition. The temperatures will be in the mid to high nineties, so we’ll know pretty quick who’s been on the couch and who’s been on the bag practicing. There may be a west Texas breeze come thru so for showdown golfers, watch your weather. The following golfers are who I’m looking at for some of my core group, tomorrow I will have core picks, value plays, sleepers and ownership projections to assist in your lineup picks. Not all the golfers listed are in the order of their world golf rankings.
Even though I only play DK GPP, FanDuel has just changed their algorithms and metrics AND scoring to almost the exact duplicate of DK scoring. I guess that merger is still on in some aspects. This means for all you FD players that this data may apply as well to your rostering teams.
Rory McILroy- okay, he’s ranked number 1 for a reason. In his last seven tourneys he has placed in the top 5 five different times, his strokes gained average is obscene. He is the top priced golfer on DraftKings at $11,800, with his recent history, his ownership % will be a key factor in rostering him.
Bryson DeChambeau- Bryson is telling everyone who will listen he’s been in the gym and has his slide rule out every day for golf. His recent history glows, a 4th at Arnies Invitational, 2nd at the quality packed WGC Mexico and 5th at the Genesis, so his recent history is smoking.
DraftKings price $10,100.
John Rahm- in his last 17 starts he placed top 15 sixteen times, and although he missed the cut at last years Colonial, he finished 5th and 2nd the last two years before.
DraftKings price $11,000.
Sungjae IM- there’s a rumor he wanted to play “pretend tournaments” so he wouldn’t have to go home, this guy plays every single weekend. So far he won the Honda, then had a 3rd at the Arney Palmer Inv.
DraftKings price $9,300
Collin Morikawa- look, PATRICK SCOTT, look!!!! Patrick is one of our VERY good golf contributing writers, he told me about Collin at the beginning. I’ve been grateful ever since. This guy is a cut making machine, he hasn’t missed a cut since Robert Trent Jones last teed up at Augusta, (kind of). He is exactly the type of value play that will get you paid.
DraftKings price $9,100.
Tony Finau- Tony has had a quiet good year. He was 2nd at Phoenix, 6th at Torrey Pines and 14th at the American Express. With his DraftKings price at $8,700 he will have value to be watched closely
Scottie Scheffler- Scottie walked off the tour with hot clubs, he has been entering, and winning every mini tourney he can find since then. This is his hometown, 1st time playing here, so will nerves lower his score, or will he slam it in another gear?
DraftKings price $8,400
Victor Hovland- Victor has quietly been playing in small tourneys here in Texas, which acclimates him to the weather and conditions, although he hasn’t been winning them all like Scheffler, he has been tourney ready since May.
DraftKings price $7,900
Abraham Ancer- Abraham has played in two mini tourneys here in Texas, he is from Texas, and with the long layoff any tourney competition speaks well for the players.
DraftKings price $7,300
Golfers I may not roster- Rose, Day, Kokrak,Koepka again, this is preliminary.
Possible Sleepers: D Redman, DMcCarthy, C Ortiz, A. Hadwin X Schauffele, I Poulter, B Todd,K Kisner,R Palmer, T Duncan and I will have more value plays in that most important 7-8 K range tomorrow, along with % to make the cut, % to make the top 20, and % of ownership.
This tourney isn’t normally as talent laden, with the long layoff, even the stars are ready to tee it up. This is certainly noticeable with the softer pricing on DraftKings. We should be able to find excellent value and contrarian value in the lower tiers.
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Outlaw Tour is back in action Tuesday at Noon and we’ve got a 75 person field and a course which happens to be 7500 yards long. Fair to say that if you are doing GPP’s you’ll want to do some balanced lineups and some lineups that feature some top guns. I’ll be about 50/50 in that regard. Let’s get to it. Make sure you hop over to DraftKings and FanDuel to place your lineups!
NOTE: Please make sure you jump in our Discord chat for updates on this article. Golfers aren’t teeing off until about noon and there will definitely be updates.
Top Tier (10k and above)
No one. Literally, I’m fading everyone in this range, particularly since Calkins appears to be a late scratch. If I had to take someone it would be Oda, but I’m mostly fading this range tomorrow.
Middle Tier (8k – 10k)
Andre Metzger (DK 9900/FD 11200) – Metzger may be chalky as far as this range goes, but it’s for good reason, particularly with a relatively weak field. We have a solid golfer here with some mini tour wins under his belt and the ability to hit birdie at a better rate than most in the field.
Chris Korte (DK 9000/FD 10500) – I was on him last week and it paid off for the most part. Talented golfer with plenty of birdie ability. I think most people will be on Olson in this range and I think Korte is a nice pivot for GPP. Feel free to roll with Olson in cash, but I like Korte in GPP (cash as well).
Sam Triplett (DK 8900/FD 10900) – He’s been really good as of late and I think he will continue to get stronger on these mini tours. He finished 6th on this course last year.
Alistair Docherty (DK 8500 /FD 10600) – Played here last year and finished well inside the Top 10. Birdie percentage is high and very reasonably priced given his potential.
Nick Arman (DK 8000/FD 9900) – Arman should be a reasonable GPP pivot from Neil Johnson who will likely be a little chalky at the same price. Arman can have a bad day here and there but he can light it up too. Hofman and Funk will be solid plays in this range too.
Bottom Tier (Below 8k)
Jon Trasamar (DK 7700/FD 9200) – this is a GPP more than a cash play but Trasmar has some great birdie potential relative to most of the other golfers in this range.
Sam Gillis (DK 7700/FD 9100) – You’re not going to want to go much lower than this range. I’ve seen Gillis do enough good things to justify a GPP selection here.
Kyle Maze (DK 7300/FD 9000) – Very risky but worthy of inclusion in a GPP lineup because of his birdie percentage. Looking for birdie-makers in showdown slates not cut-makers.
Again, don’t forget to jump into Discord for updates tonight and tomorrow morning. Make sure to also visit Win Daily Sports for updates and articles on all things DFS and Betting!
It feels intuitive to suggest that in PGA DFS there is the only thing we should be worried about when picking a lineup: have each of our six golfers make the cut and have a few of those golfers place somewhere in the top ten (with one of them winning the tournament obviously). And yes, that is very important, but we also need to consider the following question: Do the golfers that you select have limited scoring potential?
Often times we select a golfer who may be a good ball striker on a course that requires it, but they may have limited birdie and/or eagle potential. Maybe it’s a guy like Russell Knox who won’t give you many bogeys and will give you just enough birdies to clear the cut line. Let’s say Knox posts a -3 and makes the cut. His day one and two combined cards (36 holes) produced two bogeys and five birdies and 29 pars for a total DraftKings score of 28.5 (each bogey is -0.5, par is +0.5 and each birdie is +3).
Now, let’s assume we also picked PGA Tony Finau who also posted the same score of -3 to make the cut. His day one and two combined cards (36 holes) produced 8 bogeys, 11 birdies and 18 pars for a total DraftKings score of 38. This is a nearly 10 point difference between two golfers with the same score to par.
In this scenario, if PGA Finau happened to have three birdies in a row he’d have 41 total points. If he also added an eagle on one hole (in place of one his birdies) he’d have a score of 46. If we bring this scenario to its logical conclusion, Finau will likely have a higher finishing position than Knox which will obviously get him even more points.
In short, it is easy to understand why the high variance golfers are sometimes overlooked for the safe golfer, but playing it safe can sometimes cost you much-needed points. While the safe golfers may get you to cash, the high variance scoring golfers may get you the win.
See Part 1 of Sia’s Secrets to PGA Success here
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