Sia’s Secrets to PGA Success: Scoring Matters

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It feels intuitive to suggest that in PGA DFS there is the only thing we should be worried about when picking a lineup: have each of our six golfers make the cut and have a few of those golfers place somewhere in the top ten (with one of them winning the tournament obviously).  And yes, that is very important, but we also need to consider the following question:  Do the golfers that you select have limited scoring potential?

Often times we select a golfer who may be a good ball striker on a course that requires it, but they may have limited birdie and/or eagle potential.   Maybe it’s a guy like Russell Knox who won’t give you many bogeys and will give you just enough birdies to clear the cut line.  Let’s say Knox posts a -3 and makes the cut. His day one and two combined cards (36 holes) produced two bogeys and five birdies and 29 pars for a total DraftKings score of 28.5 (each bogey is -0.5, par is +0.5 and each birdie is +3).

Now, let’s assume we also picked PGA Tony Finau who also posted the same score of -3 to make the cut. His day one and two combined cards (36 holes) produced 8 bogeys, 11 birdies and 18 pars for a total DraftKings score of 38. This is a nearly 10 point difference between two golfers with the same score to par. 

In this scenario, if PGA Finau happened to have three birdies in a row he’d have 41 total points. If he also added an eagle on one hole (in place of one his birdies) he’d have a score of 46.  If we bring this scenario to its logical conclusion, Finau will likely have a higher finishing position than Knox which will obviously get him even more points.

In short, it is easy to understand why the high variance golfers are sometimes overlooked for the safe golfer, but playing it safe can sometimes cost you much-needed points. While the safe golfers may get you to cash, the high variance scoring golfers may get you the win.

See Part 1 of Sia’s Secrets to PGA Success here