The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.
Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.
Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.
Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
The NFL DFS season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
Let’s say I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP. At least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)
Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)
Lower-risk Contrarian #1: DeShaun Watson (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)
High-upside Contrarian #2: Will Fuller V (DK $12,000, FD $10,500)
High-risk Contrarian #3: Randall Cobb (DK $6,300, FD $8,500)
DK-only Punts: Chiefs DST ($5,100) and Darrel Williams ($2,700)
With the Chiefs listed as 9-10 point favorites with a 31.75 implied team total in the season opener, we’re going to see Mahomes as MVP in the vast majority of FD lineups and a healthy portion on DK. I’m calling the Chiefs rookie RB “CEH” to avoid too much typing, and I’m going to have a fair share of him at the top spot as well. He’s not a bad anchor if we want to build out with the Chiefs DST, Mahomes and a couple Texans.
The path to a low-owned lottery ticket with plenty of upside comes with a great deal of risk if we use Watson, but I’ll have at least one in five GPP lineups that uses this strategy. We’ve seen Watson have many an explosive second half with the Texans trailing by multiple scores and that’s just what could happen here if the Chiefs D does its job in the first half and relaxes with a two or three-score lead in the fourth quarter.
Fuller, when healthy (or simple active) is a dangerous man. He’s my favorite Texans player and another possible candidate. Whether Brandin Cooks sits or not, we can give Randall Cobb a huge bump, as he’s always capable of big plays out of the slot and a TD or two. Hint: DeShaun Watson loves throwing to the slot…
On DK, it might pair to have some shares of the Chiefs DST in the MVP slot if we’re looking to get three more Chiefs and one of the two Johnsons (David or Duke) with Fuller.
The largest unknown in this game is probably how the Chiefs will utilize their RBs (CEH, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson), so exploring some different combinations there will be key. I like Darrel Williams a lot because he’s the Chiefs’ top pass-blocking back and short-yardage guy – and he’ll see a handful of touches/targets with the possibility of 8-10 if he gets a “hot hand.” At just $2,700 (just $1,800 in a utility slot), he could be a gamebreaker if he hits his 15-20 point upside.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value:
Good luck this week and don’t hesitate to get in Discord and pepper our writers with any question you may have!
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We’ve got your NFL Week 10 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!
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The Panthers have been limiting McCaffrey’s practiceworkload, but the stud RB’s Week 10 status is not in doubt following a coupleof maintenance days. Fantasy’s No. 1 running back in every aspect, he has a favorablematchup facing a Packers defense that’s been a sieve to running back production.Lock this man in for your cash games and any other formats you see fit.
Barkley gets a great matchup vs. the Jets (who allow 18-20fantasy points to RBs, on average) and remains the consensus No. 1 or 2 fantasyRB heading into Week 10. He’s involved in the entire offense and sees upwardsof 8-10 targets each week – making him a lock for double-digit production evenwithout the running game clicking.
If you’re averse to spending top dollar at both RB spots incash, Henry offers a considerable discount from the aforementioned backs andhas nearly as much upside against a Chiefs defense that’s among the worst inthe NFL at defending RBs.
Saints head coach Sean Payton had already noted that Kamara would return following his two-game absence, but on Thursday the electric RB practiced in full, putting him higher on my list of GPP plays for Week 10. Latavius Murray will still get work and his excellent performance in Kamara’s stead, and has earned a touch more standalone work, but Kamara is a special player who can take over a game and should eviscerate the Falcons defense. He won’t see the ownership of Barkley or McCaffrey, making him a better tournament play in Saints stacks with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.
Ingram is one of many options for the Ravens who could blowup in this game, so I’m not too high on him for cash games, but he makes an excellentGPP play because of the opponent (theBengals rank around the third-worst in terms of passing and running defenseDVOA), and his ability to run for over 100 yards. I won’t be at fullexposure, but I should be ahead of the field.
Montgomery is finally having the type of production we expectedhim to earlier in the season, in part because Matt Nagy is using him properly. Montgomery has seen 48 touches over the last two gamesand has now totaled 16 or more touches in five of the last seven games. That workhorserole means his favorable matchup with the Lions means he’s a lock for top 10-15fantasy production, with Top 5 upside. He’s part of my core plays at RB in GPPs,even though he might get chalky.
Mack makes for a great GPP ply against a poor opponent thisweek, and we could expect maybe a little lower ownership because of the high price.Without the cake matchup, he wouldn’t have nearly as much upside as the playershe’s priced alongside, but the Dolphins yield the most points to fantasy RBsand the Colts should be more ground-focused if it’s Brian Hoyer under center.
Also consider: DeVonta Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams
TheGiants run defense is getting better, but they still have major issues. TheJets do too, but I think we’re in the clear with Bell moving forward, as the tradedeadline has come and gone and he’s the best man for the job despite his 3.3YPC this season. He had a brief injury scare at the beginning of the week, butthe MRI revealed nothing significant and he’s supposed to go on Sunday. Staytuned, but consider him as a contrarian play with plenty of upside on bothsites.
Johnson presents as a very high risk, moderate-to-high rewardand I can’t imagine he’ll be on everybody’s list of top plays, so most will beunderweight on him. So if you’re trying to take down a large-field GPP, he’s wortha look as a low-owned option with plenty of upside. The Bucs have the NFL’stop-ranked run defense, but the Cards spread the field and run the football, soexpect some plays drawn up for Johnson to get some easy completions from KylerMurray and rack up the points. A much safer play on DK because of the full-PPRand nicer price.
After a relatively disappointing week at Denver, Chubb could be off the radar for most owners, especially with Kareem Hunt finally available as a change of pace back. He has a tough matchup, but after seeing him rush for 131 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots, I think his results depend more on game flow, big plays and goal line opportunities. The Bills defense hasn’t been wonderful the past couple of weeks and has shown itself to be more vulnerable against the run. If the Browns don’t get behind by multiple TDs, we could see heavy doses of Chubb and enough production to warrant his usage in some GPPs.
Also consider: Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Ty Johnson
The rookie RB is coming into his own, with scores inconsecutive weeks and a season-high 20 carries vs. Washington in Week 9. He’sone of the best value plays of the slate and makes sense as a flex play in cashgames and one of your core plays in GPPs.
He’s an option because he outperformed Ty Johnson last weekand could be seeing a larger workload against the Bears. There’s plenty of riskin this matchup, but McKissic gained 32 yards on just four carries in Week 9and should have the requisite opportunities to make an impact as a pass-catcher.
With Miami’s Bad Boy (teammate Mark Walton) slated to servea four-game suspension, the enigmatic and dynamic Ballage figures to see anexpanded role in Dolphins offense. It’s a team – as a whole – that doesn’talways allow for the most favorable game flows and a commitment to the running game,but Ballage is cheap and has given us monster games before. He’s in a spot todominate the touches in the backfield in Week 10.
Additional plays: Giovani Bernard, Kareem Hunt
Pick the Players what will get the most Fantasy Points
Goal: 54.5, Prize: 2x
Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell and Golden Tate
Going with the RB theme, we can start both RBs in the Giants-Jets game, as both should have plenty of opportunities ion both the running and passing game on Sunday. Pairing them with PPR maven WR Golden Tate could help you get 2x or more on your bet.
Week Eight is in the books, so let’s move on to the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. In this week’s article I’ll discuss a few players who could make their return from injuries in Week Nine as well as a few others who are planning to play through the bumps and bruises. I’ll also discuss whether or not these players can perform well enough from an injury perspective or fade them. I’ll start with the Thursday night game.
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David Johnson
I’ll start with the elephant in the room. What’s going on with David Johnson? Well, if we knew exactly what the deal is, we wouldn’t have to rely on Kingsbury for information. The coach has proven to have quite the poker face in terms of injuries. For example, Christian Kirk, who was a “game-time” decision last week, performed extremely well and did not appear to be limited. What we do know is that D.J.’s injury is related to his ankle, which generally means it’s either a lateral sprain, or of the high ankle variety. It’s not uncommon for players to suffer lateral ankle sprains, try to play too quickly, and re-injure themselves. Conversely, a high ankle sprain typically would not allow a player to come back after one week as DJ did in Week Seven. So, what does all of this mean? If D.J. is dealing with a re-aggravated lateral ankle sprain, the Thursday turn around simply might be too quick of a turnaround. Even if he’s active, I don’t want to use him in any Showdown slates as the 49ers defense is as stout as they come. Fade him.
Matt Breida
Unbelievably, this is Breida’s first appearance on the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. It seems that he always misses at least one quarter of every game due to injury. However he rarely is in danger of missing time. On Sunday he was forced out of action due to an ankle injury, and I’m concerned about the exact mechanism of injury. I tweeted about it here. Long story short, I think Breida may be dealing with a high ankle sprain, which depending on severity can hold him out for several weeks. I would not plan on having Breida in any lineups, but even if he suits up, I’m sitting him.
Patrick Mahomes
No. Not yet.
Davante Adams
Week Nine marks 38 days since we’ve seen Adams on a football field. That’s about five weeks, so there is a high probability he plays against the Chargers seeing as grade II turf toe injuries take four to six weeks to heal. Check back with me as the week progresses because this would be the game to use the Packers’ target hog at $7,100 on DraftKings. If he’s active, I have no concerns of re-injury for Adams. Lock. Smash. Cash.
Marquise Brown
“Hollywood” is another player who I suspect is dealing with a high ankle injury. The reason for that thought is due to the fact that he has not played in three weeks, and is now planning on a Week Nine return. Regardless of the past, I’m not afraid to use Brown in tournaments as it relates to injury. However, I am extremely hesitant to play him against the New England Patriots defense.
Dede Westbrook
I’m nervous about Westbrook’s availability in Week Nine. The immediate thought when players are dealing with shoulder and neck injuries is nerve root irritation. The spinal nerves exit all throughout the spine, and the ones from the neck go directly to the shoulder and upper back. When nerves are irritated they can cause shoulder and neck pain, numbness and tingling, and tend to give that “asleep” feeling all the way down to the hand. Now, this is speculation on my end, but that type of injury is definitely within the realm of possibilities. If he’s active, I’m sitting Westbrook.
James Conner
Conner has an AC joint sprain. That means the ligament connecting the outside portion of his clavicle bone and the tip of his shoulder bone was damaged to some extent. These injuries can be minor or cost players up to four weeks of action. Check back with me as we’re not sure of the severity quite yet, but if he manages to suit up, there is a risk that he re-injures the joint. I’m staying away in cash and would consider Jaylen Samuels in tournaments instead. Sit Conner.
Adam Thielen
Say it with me class: grade I and II hamstring strains can cost players one to three weeks of missed time. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times. Thielen’s chances of playing are better than last week, but I’m not convinced he’s ready yet. Check back with me to read about his practice participation and the reports out of Minnesota. If he practices, I wouldn’t hesitate to use him against the Chiefs who can’t seem to cover running backs or slot receivers.
Thanks for reading the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. Make sure to check back here for updates as they come.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.
Week Eight is almost upon us. which is definitely reflected in the long list of player injuries to break down in the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis. There won’t be much time for messing around on this one, so I’ll get right to it.
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Drew Brees
As I mentioned earlier in the week Brees’ thumb surgery was a mere five weeks ago, and he just initiated practice on Wednesday. These practices were limited in nature and of course the team remains on the fence in terms of his chances of playing. Although there’s definitely a chance Brees plays tomorrow, I’m not entirely convinced they bring him back with a 6-1 record as a favorite over the Cardinals with a bye on the horizon in Week Nine. Lastly, this was a contact injury that theoretically could be re-injured if brought back too soon. I would be surprised if Brees is active.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara is dealing with a couple of different injuries of his knee and ankle. It is reportedly a high ankle sprain, which on its own can take some time to heal. Despite his limited practices this week I’m using similar logic to Brees’ status when it comes to Kamara: Given the overall state of the team and a bye in Week Nine, why risk playing him at all? Even if he’s active, with a $7,600 price tag on DraftKings, I’m staying away as he’ll likely be limited in either work or physical capacity.
Keenan Allen
Allen popped up Wednesday on the injury report with a hamstring strain and has not practiced since then. The Chargers have said that he is a game time decision but also said he would be limited in snaps if active. With the knowledge that hamstring strains can limit players for one to three games and the suggestion that he could be on a snap count (if active at all) does not give me confidence to play Allen at $6,400 on DraftKings.
Matt Ryan
Ryan returned to practice in a limited capacity on Friday following a pretty gruesome ankle injury last Sunday. It seems the quarterback avoided catastrophe as the dreaded grade II high ankle sprain would have held him out indefinitely. Considering that Ryan isn’t exactly Michael Vick in the pocket, I would still expect him to put up respectable passing numbers but would only use him in tournaments if active.
David Johnson
There is one thing that is clear about the Arizona Cardinals and that is their penchant for keeping player injuries mainly under wraps. They demonstrated those characteristics in their handling of David Johnson over the last two weeks and with his teammate, Christian Kirk, one month ago. Ultimately, D.J. did not practice all week and the Cardinals made two depth signings at running back to boot. I don’t expect Johnson to be active, but even if he is, can you trust him against the stout Saints defense with an ankle injury?
Christian Kirk
Week Eight marks the first shot that Kirk has at playing following his high ankle injury from Week Four. However, he continued to be limited in practice, which is a bit concerning given the time frame. Additionally, the game-time decision did not end with him being activated in Week Seven. Overall, if Kirk is active, I want to see him perform before using him in cash games. I might consider him in a few tournament plays though at only $4,700 in a game the Cardinals are expected to be down in.
Davante Adams
Unfortunately the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis does not include much optimism regarding Adams’ status. I think we’re still a week away on Adams, but he definitely has a chance to return as Sunday marks 31 days since the turf toe injury. Typically grade II sprains last from four to six weeks. Check back with me to be certain.
Josh Jacobs
I expect Jacobs to be active as the primary limiting factor in shoulder injuries (that are not unstable) for a running back is pain. And whether we agree with the practice reports or not, the Raiders are likely to “shoot him up” prior to their game on Sunday if it is still bothering him.
Tyrell Williams
Williams will make his long awaited return as the Raiders’ number one receiver against a depleted Texans secondary. Additionally, Williams has no competition for targets (aside from Darren Waller) in a game they are expected to lose. I don’t mind Williams as a tournament play this week.
Thanks again for reading the DFS Week Eight Injury Analysis Report. Make sure to check back with me Sunday for my final thoughts before locking in those lineups!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Keith Allison
Week Eight brought yet another flurry of injuries to discuss as the NFL season carries on. As always I’ll mention every DFS relevant player and their respective injury (or suspected injury) and what to expect moving forward from a medical perspective. Enjoy this first version of the Week Eight Injury Watch!
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Adam Thielen
Thielen injured his hamstring on Sunday afternoon in the first half against the Lions, and was ruled out for the rest of the game. Thielen and the Vikings remain optimistic about his availability, but I’m not so certain we should follow suit. As I’ve mentioned week after week, grade I and grade II hamstring strains can take anywhere from one to three weeks to heal. Thielen did not practice Tuesday, only adding to the concern that the swelling and pain are likely still significant. It would be an extraordinary feat if Thielen is able to play on Thursday.
Update: Thielen has been officially ruled out.
Kerryon Johnson
Kerryon is now on IR following a “procedure” on Tuesday. Consider firing up Ty Johnson up who is $4,900 on Draft Kings and $5,200 on FanDuel.
Will Fuller
Fuller, who has a history of hamstring strains, has already been ruled out by the Texans so consider both Keke Coutee and Kenny Stills as they are under $6,000 on FanDuel and under $5,000 on Draft Kings.
Matt Ryan
Ryan was injured after being sacked by Aaron Donald on Sunday. I tweeted about it here. The Falcons are acting like it isn’t too serious, but I have my concerns. Based on the mechanism of injury, he either has an eversion ankle sprain (think Keke Coutee in the preseason) or a high ankle sprain (think Saquon Barkley). Both of those injuries (if significant enough) can cost players between one and four weeks. Check back with me about Ryan’s availability later this week after more reports become available.
Update: Ryan did not practice on Wednesday but there are reports that he could be good to go on Sunday. This tells us he likely avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain. Check back with me for further updates.
Davante Adams
Thursday marks four weeks since Adams picked up this grade II turf toe injury, making Week Eight his first real shot at playing again. Grade II turf toe can take between four and six weeks to heal, so it isn’t a slam dunk that he’ll play just yet. There is still a chance that the pain has no fully subsided, so make sure to bookmark this article as I’ll continue to update it as the week progresses.
Christian Kirk
Next up on the DFS Week Weight Injury Watch is Christian Kirk. Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four and like Adams, has his first legitimate shot at suiting up on Sunday. Last week he was a game time decision, so that tells us that he’s getting close. As always, make sure to check back with me for more updates.
Update: Kirk practiced again in a limited capacity on Wednesday. This is a sign that he is indeed moving towards being active on Sunday against the Saints.
David Johnson
Last week D.J. was the cause of many headaches around the DFS community as his ankle injury was evidently much more severe than Kingsbury made it sound. Hopefully you read my Final Injury Report here and backed off of your D.J. shares. This week, I’ll continue to monitor his progress and try to gather new information before Sunday.
Update: Johnson did not practice on Wednesday but that doesn’t move the needle on his status one way or the other. As the week progresses, I’ll continue to watch his status. With the signing of Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris it’s important to know that third string running back D.J. Foster is also injured. Neither of those two newly signed backs have ever led a backfield and together have been cut by four or five teams within the last calendar year. Additionally, they profile as a pass catcher and a grinder respectively. All of this is to say that I believe they’re merely depth signings with the Cardinals keeping worst case scenario in mind.
Additions
Adrian Peterson
Peterson told reporters this week that he had an MRI and was diagnosed with a grade II lateral ankle sprain and a grade I high ankle sprain. Now, part of me does not believe the full extent of this diagnosis as no human on this planet would play in an NFL game with these injuries. The flip side of my thinking is that AP has proven to us time after time that he is not like the rest of us. In fact, he returned to NFL action and was in the running for MVP in 2013 just nine months removed from an ACL tear. The reality is that the truth about his current injuries probably lies somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately, “the middle” is significant enough to scare me away from using much of AP tonight, especially in cash.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara is banged up and missed practice on Wednesday as he is currently dealing with a knee sprain (likely MCL) and a high ankle sprain (some people in the media like to say “high ankle issue” but make no mistake, it is indeed a sprain despite the severity). There is also a belief that since the previously mentioned Zach Zenner was released by the Saints that Kamara is close to returning. Although this could be true, there is also a good chance Zenner was signed prior to knowing the severity or extent of Kamara’s injuries. The point I’m making is that I’m not convinced Kamara plays this week just yet.
Drew Brees
Brees’ situation is still cloudy as he just started practicing again in a limited fashion on Wednesday. He tells the media it’s his plan to start, but still isn’t sure of his strength. As a quarterback, he requires close to full strength and definitely full fine motor control of his surgically repaired thumb making me slightly concerned about him playing this week. On average, athletes can return to sport between four and seven weeks. One specific study done by Werner and colleagues found that in a sample of nine skill position football players, the return to sport time was seven weeks. Arguments against Brees returning are obvious: the Saints have not lost since his injury, Teddy Bridgewater is rolling, and NOLA has a Week Nine bye. Why bring Brees back this week if he’s admittedly not sure of himself just yet? I would not be surprised if Brees waits until after Week Nine, but stay tuned for more updates.
That’s it for the DFS Week Eight Injury Watch. Start building those lineups and check back with me for up to the minute injury updates.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Keith Allison.
This week is teeming with game-time decisions and some tough calls. In the Final Injury Report I’ll give you more context about these players’ injuries to guide your lineup construction.
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David Johnson
DJ is expected to play per reports, but as I mentioned earlier this week, I don’t know how much I trust him this week. The Cardinals are proving to be a difficult team to peg with their injuries as it only recently came out that Christian Kirk has been dealing with a high ankle sprain. Granted if that was the case Johnson would not be active at all, but I don’t have much faith in him for cash games considering All Second Team running back Chase Edmonds took the first team snaps most of the week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison
Next up on the Final Injury Report are a couple of teammates. These guys’ availability is going to be the X factor for the Packers’ passing game today. Allison will undergo concussion protocol testing this morning again and has a chance to play. If he is active, he should not be limited whatsoever and from a volume perspective isn’t a bad choice at $4,900 on Draft Kings. On the other hand, if MVS is declared active, there’s no way I put him into any lineups considering he has both an ankle and knee injury he’s dealing with. Not to mention MVS is $5,200 on Draft Kings. I’m passing on him this week.
Marquise Brown
I’m fading Brown as a mid-afternoon kickoff will give us no further clarity at this point. He missed all of last week and this week’s practice, so I don’t expect Brown to play today. At this point, I’m beginning to wonder if he is suffering from the dreaded high ankle.
Delanie Walker
Walker’s practice participation went in reverse on Friday after being limited all week. He is currently hampered by an ankle injury and I can’t help but think that at 35 the massive reconstruction is beginning to effect him. I’m fading Walker today in cash, but not tournaments as there’s a good chance he will serve as the primary safety valve for starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. At $3,800 on Draft Kings I would be more than willing to use Walker. Check back with me on Twitter to ensure he is active.
Thank you for reading the DFS Final Injury Report. Good luck today!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Chipermc.
In the Week Seven Injury Breakdown, I’ll discuss a few players who are game time decisions or playing through designations as well as a few who are returning following a layoff from injury. As always, my aim is to provide more context from a medical perspective. Make sure to bookmark my user profile as I am constantly updating these injury articles with analysis as news rolls in.
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Saquon Barkley
I won’t bury the lead and will start with Barkley as he is scheduled to make his return following a high ankle sprain. Although I am concerned for Barkley’s long term health, his ankle should be good to go this week. I have no issues paying up for him against the Arizona Cardinals 25th ranked rushing DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders.
Evan Engram
Barkley’s teammate, Engram, is scheduled to return from an MCL sprain. He’s going to be the chalk this week, so if you need an excuse to pivot consider that he has a history of these specific sprains and it would not be a complete shock if he re-aggravates the injury this week. I am not saying fade Engram altogether, but I am saying that his knee has proven to be structurally unstable in the past.
Devin Singletary
Singletary will finally make his return after missing the previous three games of the season. From an injury perspective, he’s had plenty of time to recover from a hamstring strain. I’m mentioning him here because I have gotten some questions about him.
John Brown
“Smoky” gave us a scare this week when he surprisingly popped up on the injury report with a groin strain. Although he’s no longer on the report and practiced in full on Friday, this is worth mentioning because he carries the sickle cell trait. This trait slows tissue healing times and complicates recovery. This is enough information for me to avoid him in cash games this week.
David Johnson
D.J. is once again a game-time decision as this is becoming a pattern. This week his designation is due to an ankle injury that limited him in practice all week. To make matters worse, Kliff Kingsbury told the media that if the Cardinals would have played on Friday, Johnson would not have been ready to go. Johnson is no more than a contrarian play in tournaments this week if he’s active, as the Cardinals’ injuries have proven difficult to peg. At this point, Johnson could have a high ankle sprain or a lateral ankle sprain, but there’s no way to be certain. Again, if D.J. is active on Sunday, I wouldn’t blame you for sprinkling him into a few tournaments as the Giants are in the bottom 5 in passing DVOA, where Johnson has made his money this year. But he would not be a high percentage play from an injury perspective.
Christian Kirk
Kirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four, so I would not expect him to be active until Week Eight at the earliest despite his game-time decision status. On the off chance he is active, I’m not confident in using him until I see him play a full game and remain healthy.
Todd Gurley
Next on the Week Seven Injury Breakdown is a player who I believe we’ll begin seeing more and more often in my reports as the season goes on. The bottom line with Gurley at this point is that he’s not the player he was last season due to his knee condition. Despite the Rams reporting a “contusion” kept him out of Week Six, it’s within the realm of possibilities that it was actually his arthritis flaring up or a combination of both. As such, it would not be surprising if Gurley once again re-aggravates his knee, leaving Darrell Henderson as the top dog in a game with a ridiculous 54 over/under. Darrell Henderson will likely occupy the Malcolm Brown (OUT) role and could serve as a serious salary saver.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
MVS practiced in a limited fashion on Friday and is listed on the injury report with both knee and ankle injuries. He also admitted that he finished the game on Monday night “on adrenaline” which is not a good sign. Even if MVS is active on Sunday (he’s currently questionable) there’s no way I trust him in cash and would even be hesitant to use him in tournaments despite the volume. Why? Because this is a classic situation in which a starter might play through serious injury due to the state of his team’s overall health. His price tag is just too high for me at this point.
Amari Cooper
I’m surprised Cooper is expected to play considering that on Thursday he “plateaued” in his recovery according to reports. Essentially, a contusion is a bruise of deep tissues. For context, when you or I gracefully ram into a door frame and bruise our arm, that’s only affecting our thickest layer of skin. Now, imagine that same bruise penetrating to the muscle. That’s what Cooper is currently dealing with, which makes me nervous to use him this week. Another aspect to consider is the fact that this is a divisional game that the Cowboys would love to win and take control of the NFC Least East. Additionally, there’s always the possibility that Cooper is activated primarily as a decoy a la Julian Edelman in Week Four following a rib injury. The counter argument here is that all Cooper needs against this awful Eagles secondary is one big play. Even then, I don’t trust him any further than a junior high quarterback could throw a football against the Eagles secondary. Well, that may not be the best analogy.
Josh Gordon
Flash did not practice this week and I’m skeptical he plays on Sunday.
Thank you for reading the Week Seven Injury Breakdown. Make sure to check back with me on Sunday morning for the Final Injury Report. Good luck this week!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.
It’s Week Six (hard to believe) and today marks the return of Tyreek Hill. Today will also bring tough decisions on players such as David Johnson and George Kittle. Should you be concerned about these injuries? Read the DFS Final Injury report to find out.
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Tyreek Hill
I’m green-lighting Hill this week with a good amount of confidence. Hill is coming back after a five week absence due to a posterior dislocation of his sternoclavicular joint. This type of injury differs from a soft tissue strain or a bruise in that once out of the “protection” stage, it’s pretty much all systems go. This was somewhat of a freak accident, and although he’s relatively prone to re-dislocation, he’s active today which means the Chiefs’ medical staff is confident in his ability to safely take a big hit. He might not see the immediate rebound in volume, but a decrease in volume will likely come at the expense of fly sweeps and bubble passes towards the sidelines and not fly routes. Luckily, “cheetah” just needs one or two big plays to pay off massively. Don’t be afraid to fire him up in tournaments this week with an eye towards cash games next week after re-solidifying his role in the offense.
Alvin Kamara
Kamara is a yellow light for me this week overall. Kamara will be active for Week Six after popping up on the injury report in the middle of the week with an ankle injury. This is more than likely a run-of-the-mill lateral ankle sprain and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. However given the fact that Latavius Murray is always a fine option for the Saints, I’m not using Kamara in cash. These ankle injuries can linger it would not be a giant surprise for Kamara to see a lightened workload. For this reason I’m not paying for any piece of the Saints’ backfield this week.
George Kittle
I’m red-lighting Kittle for my lineups this week. Kittle was a limited participant in practice on Friday due to a groin injury. These injuries are scary for skill players and can cause extended missed time is aggravated (i.e. DeSean Jackson). Because we do not know the exact severity of this groin injury, there is no reason to pay up for Kittle this week as a safe DFS player. Other options like Austin Hooper are in play today.
David Johnson
Here’s another red-light player for me on the Final Injury Report. D.J. has been limited all week by a back injury and did not get in a limited practice until Friday. This is another injury that is a bit mysterious as it could be effecting his muscles, discs, or ligaments. Due to the lack of information on Johnson’s injury and his limited practice participation, I’m very hesitant to use him at all this week. After the showing Chase Edmonds had in Week Five, even if Johnson is active, he might not pay off his price tags in terms of volume.
That will do it for the DFS Final Injury Report. Make sure to find me on Twitter here with specific injury questions. Good luck this week!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Chipermc.
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