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PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic at PGA National

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Honda Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • The first stop on Florida Swing
  • Full tournament field of 144 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens)
    • 7,125 yards, Par 70 – Tom Fazio design w/multiple Jack Nicklaus renovations
    • Bermuda greens (average speed) and fairways
    • Lots of water (in play on 15 holes), normally features high wind speeds (up to 15-20 MPH)
    • Tough layout (15-17 most difficult stretch known as “Bear Trap”
  • Defending champ: Keith Mitchell (2019)
  • Focus Stat Categories: GIR; Bogey Avoidance; Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around the Green; SG: Ball Striking, Scrambling; Par 5 scoring; Par 4 efficiency (400-450), Proximity (150-200)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,800, FD $11,700) – Rickie needs to avoid the big number this week, and that probably comes down to his ball-striking – a strength in the past that’s seen diminishing effectiveness thus far in 2020. He’s one of the world’s best putters and he’s a former winner here (2017) who seems to fare well on Florida tracks.

Gary Woodland (DK $10,300, FD$11,300) – Woodlandplayed well last week and now returns home to Florida and his favorite surface –Bermuda. He’s a solid bet to win at 20-1 odds and makes lots of sense for GPPssince he’s only had one Top 5 finish here in four tries. I’ll be starting a fewstars/scrubs teams with Fowler and Woodland.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900, FD $11,400) – The Englishman plays well in wind but has limited experience here. I’m not expecting much ownership but digging deeper shows that he checks the boxes here with his Strokes Gained stats and has had a week to clear his head after a woeful T56 at the Genesis.

Billy Horschel (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Horschel has two MCs here in his last five appearances, which could help keep his ownership down. He’s a grinder who loves Bermuda and the data shows favorable results in his SG categories – which are a huge part of contending here. Like Fowler, he needs to avoid the big number and navigate the Bear Trap without making an “other.”

Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood,Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):

Byeong Hun An (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – An’s ball-striking is his biggest strength, and the Bermuda surfaces are a much better fit for him than poa annua. His fate resides in how he performs with the flat stick – which has dictated his previous finishes (fifth in 2018, T36 in 2019). My ownership will be way ahead of the field, even if he gets chalky.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Niemann doesn’t have much course history aside from a tepid T59 finish here last season, but he’s a talented ball-striker who could be this week’s Erik Van Rooyen.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Schwartzel loves to play tough golf courses, and he’s got a Green Jacket to show for it. He’s got a solid track record at PGA National and his overall game has been rounding into form.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) – He’s coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and conditions there last week should resemble what the golfers are dealing with in Florida a lot more than the West Coast Swing.

Luke List (DK $8,000, FD $9,600) – We’ve talked about some of the ups and downs to List’s career before, and while he’s not cheap this week, price is just one of the factors that could keep his GPP ownership low – the other being an MC here in 2019 after (T10-T52-2 in 2016-2018).

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,600, FD $9,600) – Clark ranks well in Bogey Avoidance and checks most of the boxes this week coming off three straight made cuts. He’s one of my favorite plays under $8K and I’ll be flirting with 50% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Daniel Berger, J.T.Poston, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Harris English, Russell Knox, Jhonattan Vegas

Value PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):

Russell Henley (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – Henley’s played better here every year following his MC in 2016 (he won here in 2014) and is coming off a T17 at the Genesis. He’s a decent wind player and has also won at the Sony Open, which is another shorter track that sees its share of wind. Henley is a huge risk but could be turning the thing around after a slew of MCs earlier in the season.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,200, FD $9,100) – He’s got a solid track record at PGA National with a T4 last year and continued improvement each and every time he’s teed it up here (three straight Top 25s in the Honda Classic). He’s about 75-1 but could win here. I’ll be overweight on my GPP ownership and he’s even usable in cash games.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – I really like his chances for a Top 10 this week following a T6 in Puerto Rico, mainly because he hits greens (T14 in GIR this season) and seems poised for a solid debut here.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,000, FD $8,500) – Lee didn’t seem too flummoxed by PGA National in his 2019 debut when he finished T7 with Wyndham Clark, and his stats in GIR and Par 4 scoring make him a great bargain.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Gooch is a cut-making machine this year (10 straight) and he’s fared well at some difficult tracks, including a T10 at Riviera in the Genesis. His T20 last season points to a level of growing comfort at this venue (MC in 2018).

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700, FD $7,800) – Burgoon is my sub-$7K wild card and someone who has navigated the Bear Trap surprisingly well over the years (10 rounds without a bogey). It’s not a catch-all stat, but it’s something to note among the dirt-cheap longshots.

More value golfers forGPPs: Sam Burns, Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Nick Watney, MichaelThompson, Doc Redman, Peter Malnati

Other bargain golfers makingtheir debut at PGA National who could finish among the Top 25: Harry Higgs, Kurt Kitayama,Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Multiple courses, similar in length and layout
    • Spyglass Hill – 7,035 yards, Par 72
    • Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course – (easiest) 6,958 yards, Par 71
    • Pebble Beach Golf Links – (hardest) 6,816 yards, Par 72
  • Cut: 54-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play on Sunday
  • 18 holes at each of the courses the first three days, final round at Pebble Beach
  • Grass: Poa Annua greens, Ryegrass fairways
  • Wind can be a factor, especially at Pebble Beach and Monterey (high winds for Saturday?)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around-the-Green; Proximity from 100-125; Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400; Greens in Regulation; Birdie or Better; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Paul Casey (DK $10,500, FD $11,700) – We highlightedsome of the focus stats that help folks win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am,but making the cut and winning here requires a solid mental approach aided byan affable nature. Casey has the game to fit these courses and solid historyhere (second place in 2019, T8 in 2018) but is also a nice dude – which helpswhen you’re playing alongside so many amateurs. As always, the key to hissuccess will be his short game.

Jason Day (DK $10,300, FD $11,500) – Continuing in the nice guy category, Day has five straight Top 15s here with four of those finishes as Top 5s. He really wants to win here, and he’s got the attitude and game to make it happen. I have some concerns about his ailing back, and so should the majority of the DFS world, so we could see lower ownership than what you’d expect from a perennial contender like Day.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,700, FD $11,000) – Fitzpatrick might see low ownership in GPPs with his price among the bigger names, and I’d probably stay away in cash games since he can have some stinkers – but the 54-hole cut makes him one of my top choices as he’s been known to get hot and put together some very low rounds. I love his attitude and his ability to put bad rounds behind him, which should keep him in the mix at the AT&T this week.

Graeme McDowell (DK $9,200, FD $10,400) – He won last week in Saudi Arabia, and while I’m not going overboard on Dustin Johnson shares, playing G-Mac after a long flight doesn’t scare me as much and it does with DJ. The Portrush, Northern Ireland native has some history at Pebble Beach and he’s one of golf’s best ambassadors. Length is not an issue on these tracks, so deploy him in GPPs in the hopes that he gets hot with the flat stick.

Also consider: DustinJohnson, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, VictorHovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Daniel Berger (DK $8,900, FD $10,300) – Berger is coming off a Top 10 at the WMPO and he finished with a T10 in his only appearance here in 2015. He’s expensive but a really good bet for a Top 20 finish.

Russell Knox (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – With no major holes in his game, Knox is a good fit for these courses and the format – though we’ll need at least one round where his putter gets hot for him to get in the Top 5.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500, FD $10,100) – Kisner’s history here is jumbled – with a couple missed cuts, a T28 last year and a Top 10 in 2017. But he’s an excellent ball striker, is quite strong on poa annua greens and registers inside the Top 20 on Par 4 efficiency 350-400. The MC at the Amex could keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – I’m always interested in Piercy for the West Coast swing, and he’s trending up (55-20-10) the past three years here. He finished T6 last week and is a solid bet to make the 54-hole cut – even if he fades a bit on Sunday as he tends to do.

Scott Stallings (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – Stallings loves the event (14-7-3 from 2017-19) and his last missed cut was at the Houston Open. He’s not without risk, but he’s popping on all my models and he excels in SG: Approach and SG: ARG.

Kevin Streelman (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Streelman is another high-risk golfer and he’s really been struggling lately. Fortunately for him, he’s playing an event that has seen him finish 17-14-6-7 over the past four years, notching Top 10s in each of the past two tries. He’ll be in my mix of GPP plays.

Also consider: Sung Kang, Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin, Vaughn Taylor, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,000):

Brian Gay (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s way too cheap for his course history, and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays on shorter courses. He also shows up in my SG models (SG and putting) and his faults (SG: Off the Tee) shouldn’t hurt him here.

Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – Baddeley showed up in my models for the focus stats and I doubt anybody will be on him this week. A worthy golfer to toss into GPPs in one of the final slots.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,700, FD $8,200) – I like that he finished T10 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,500, FD $7,700) – Lebioda can make a bunch of birdies and is a decent ball-striker, but he’s essentially a feast-or-famine finisher that cracks the Top 25 or misses the cut. At this price, that kind of variance should be expected.

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,400, FD $7,500) – Kim finished T4 here last year alongside Jason Day and has been fighting back issues the past few weeks just like the Australian. If you’re looking for golfers under $6,500, you need to take some chances.

Seamus Power (DK $6,400, FD $7,000) – Speaking of taking chances, Power will see sub 2% ownership but did make the cut here in 2017, finishing 39th. He’s a true longshot to finish among the Top 25, so I’d only roll him out in multi-entry GPP at like 5-10 percent at most.

More value golfers forGPPs: Steve Stricker, Ted Potter, Luke Donald, Tyler DuncanD.J. Trahan, Padraig Harrington, Chris Stroud

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PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open in Hawaii

Pick Management
written by Pick Management

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open in Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Golf Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 144 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Played at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii: 7,044 yards, par 70
  • Tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs, and bunkers – with an emphasis on accuracy, clubbing down and previous course knowledge
  • Bermuda turf and greens
  • Windy conditions expected
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 Scoring; Less-than-Driver, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $12,000, FD $12,300) – After JT’s latestwin in a playoff late Sunday at Kapalua, he’s listed as theVegas favorite at 9-2. Itwas a weird finish but he should contend again this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100, FD $11,500) – Webb is now oneof the most consistent golfers on Tour and he’s an excellent fit for this track,where he finished fourth in 2018. I’ll have shares alongside Thomas.

Matt Kuchar (DK $9,900, FD $11,100) – Kuchar won here last year and also at El Camaleon in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018 – an event that features a correlative coastal course with a similar feel. He’s a solid cash gameplay.

Charles Howell III (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Howell has a good history here and as a solid ball striker excels in many of our focus stat categories. He’s finished in the Top 15 three of his last four times here and is 5/5 on cuts since 2015.

Also consider: Patrick Reed (All formats), Collin Morikawa & AbrahamAncer (GPP only)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Corey Conners (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – He finished tied for third here last year after a T39 in his debut, and I’ll be hammering him into a big chunk of my GPPs. The upside is there and he’s a good bet to make the weekend. I love him in all formats this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,400, FD $10,000) – He’s had a nice run here, finishing T3, T18, T8 in his last three tries. A near-lock to make the cut and a solid bet for a Top 25. It should be a cash game staple and GPP plug-n-play.

J.T. Poston (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Poston had a solid week playing in tough competition, and he’s going to be popular given his recent form and the fit at this layout. He’s a fine play in all formats this week – just keep an eye on his ownership in tournaments.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,900, FD $9,700) – Don’t forget about Munoz. I liked him last week and he’s a sneaky play again here – even after his T10 finish last year at this venue

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,600, FD $9,300) – I can’t give up on Grillo, who’s struggled with the flat stick but can be a little more aggressive here and is an elite ball-striker with loads of GPP upside.

Also consider: Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner,Brian Stuard, Rory Sabbatini

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Brian Gay (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Gayhad a breakthrough in 2018 and a solid 2019, and he looks to get the ballrolling with another Top 25 here – something he accomplished in 2017 and 2019at Waialae. His MC at the RSM could keep folks off, and he finished T14 at theMayakoba.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – Kizzire’s recent form is trash, but Hawaii has treated him well the past few years. He’s an under-the-radar play who might just be the course horse we need to fit ion some studs.

Talor Gooch (DK $6,800, FD $8,200) – He’s GPP only as a value play with some upside, since he checks some of the key boxes, but not a guy who’s cash-viable.

Jimmy Walker (DK $6,800, FD $8,500) – It’s been a while since we’ve heard Walker discussed, but he’s a 2x winner here and this type, of course, is his bag, baby! He made the cut here last year after two misses in 2017 and 2018.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200, FD $7,100) – Old Man Kelly is super cheap and he’s a former winner with three top 15s here over the past five years. Dude loves this course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk, DanielBerger, Keegan Bradley, Scott Piercy, Harry Higgs

The PGA DFS Fades:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – He hasn’t played well at this venue, which is a change from last week’s brainless fade of Xander Schauffele (At least I take some chances with my fades). Matsuyama played well in October but he’s a little too pricey for me given his track record in Hawaii.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,400, FD $10,800) – I expect him to be popular but I’m not ready to go overboard just yet. Niemann is a first-timer here and I prefer some of the guys who are a little cheaper.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (leaving $$$):

JustinThomas ($11,200)

AbrahamAncer ($9,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

BrianGay ($7,200)

ScottPiercy ($7,100)

JerryKelly ($6,200)

($400 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

WebbSimpson ($11,100)

CoreyConners ($8,900)

ChezReavie ($8,400)

EmilianoGrillo ($7,600)

KyleStanley ($7,000)

PattonKizzire ($6,900)

($100 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

JustinThomas ($12,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

SebastianMunoz ($7,900)

RorySabbatini ($7,600)

KeeganBradley ($7,200)

ChrisKirk ($6,700)

($100 left)

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PGA DFS Picks: The Houston Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, I’m looking at golfers from all the price ranges in the Houston Open to find the right mix and get you six golfers to make the cut and win you some green on Sunday!

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Quick Course Notes:

  • The Houston open has returned (in October) to the PGA Tour, but the schedule change has eliminated a lot of the bigger names from this event. We do have Henrik Stenson in the field, and he’s the favorite.
  • It’s hosted by the Tournament Course at the Golf Club of Houston – which has some penalizing rough and Bermuda greens.
  • No major weather issues this week.
  • Large field (144 golfers) with cut line at Top 65 and ties – so having 6/6 will be a challenge.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS

Russell Henley (DK $10,100, FD $10,500) – Henley is a course horse of the highest order, with 5/5 cuts in the past five years. He’s also made 7/7 cuts since the John Deere Classic. Hopefully he’s not stumped by the longer rough and climate change from spring.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,400, FD $11,000) – The Floridian has lots of great finishes in Houston and is coming off a T18 at the Shriners. A complete golfer without any major flaws who loves the grainy Bermuda.

Pat Perez (DK $9,700, FD $10,600) – Perez is a little expensive for my liking but that’s not enough to get me to fade him in GPPs. He’s a fan of Bermuda, has a T11 in his only appearance here and is coming off a solo 3rd finish in Las Vegas at the Shriners.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,400, FD $10,200) – Munoz went to college at North Texas and he might not draw very high ownership after missing the cut at the Shriner’s in Vegas. But he won at Sanderson Farms a few weeks ago and finished 33rd at the Safeway. It’s a good week and location for a Top 10 rebound for Munoz.

Mid-Range PGA DFS

Kyle Stanley (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Stanley is 3/3 in cuts at this event and is a top-notch ball striker who shouldn’t be flummoxed by the date change or the longer rough. He finished 8th here in 2017.

Sam Ryder (DK $8.800, FD $9,100) – Ryder is a Stetson alum who finished in fifth place finish here as a rookie in 2018, when he had been struggling. Hes got a win under his belt, he clearly likes the venue and he just finished T18 at the Shriners after a couple of missed cuts to start the season.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $8,400, FD $8,800) – Burgoon went to Texas A&M and finished 24th here last season in his debut appearance. He’s a streaky player who can make a lot of birdies, and he’s perfect as a mix-in for GPPs.

Beau Hossler (DK $8,300, FD $9,600) – Another Texas (Longhorn) golfer with solid finishes here (2/2: 39th in 2017; 2nd in 2018), Hossler’s form is decent, his pricing is fair and he’s an exceptional putter – the number one thing I look for in DFS after ball-striking and the correlative Strokes Gained stats.

Value PGA DFS

Robbie Shelton (DK $7,900, $9,300) – The youngster is off to a good start this season and has a good track record on bermuda. He’s a perfect mid-range value option but there’s some risk associated with his ball-striking and lack of experience at this venue.

Brian Gay (DK $7,600, FD $9,100) – He’s my buddy Mark Spada’s favorite under-the-radar DFS golf play and he’s been hotter than a pistol recently. He’s trending up since the start of the season but has thus far just been palatable at the Golf Club of Houston: 3/3 with his best finish as a T26 in 2009. Gay finished 43rd in 2014, his last time here.

Michael Thompson (DK $7,300, FD $8,700) – Thompson loves GC of Houston and is 4/4 in cuts. He’s finished 14, 12 in his last two times here.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,100, $8,300) – Straka is my wild card, and he’s not on many of the “golfers to watch” lists this week because he prefers poa annua greens to bermuda. He’s also making his tournament debut here at GC of Houston and has yet to make a cut this season. But there’s just so much promise to this young Austrian’s game that I’ll mix him into a few lineups at what promises to be very low ownership.

Five more GPP options: Keegan Bradley (DK $9,000, FD $9,800), Luke List (DK $8,500, FD $9,700), Lanto Griffin (DK $8,000, FD $9,500), Richy Werenski (DK $7,700, FD $9,000), Robert Garrigus (DK $6,200, FD $7,000)

The Fades:

Brian Harman (DK $10,600, FD $10,900) – His course record is bad, his price is too high, and his ownership will be high given his current form. No thanks.

Russell Knox (DK $9,200, $10,300) – Knox makes for a great GPP play in certain venues, but he’s expensive, he missed the cut in his only appearance here last season and his T48 at the Shriner’s doesn’t inspire confidence.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Cameron Champ (DK $10,800, FD $11,100) – “He shouldn’t be second in price and he has too many bad rounds.” – Mark “Spades” Spada 

I couldn’t agree more, Spades. Plus, this big hitter will most definitely be finding some of the extra-long rough and he’s not known as a great scrambler.

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