To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some DFS Diamonds. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land in the 10/16 DFS Pro Column!
Most DFS sites, pros, players, etc. don’t focus on the next slate until later on in the week, but I want to provide an early look into Week 7. I want to focus on the top three to five games that I’m currently leaning towards for Week 7. I will take a deeper dive into the games later in the week.
10/16 DFS Cash Game Plays and Top Plays
Cardinalsvs. Giants
The battle of two bad defenses. Although the Giants have been more solid on defense, they are still a weaker unit. Kyler Murray seems to be living up to the hype as the #1 overall pick, but he needs to continue to capitalize with touchdowns in the red zone. I’m going to be more on the Cardinals side for this game, but if Saquon Barkley is back and not limited, I’ll be considering him this week. The only problem with Barkley on FanDuel and DraftKings is he is the highest priced RB so I might be off him this week. As for David Johnson, he has scored over 15 FanDuel points in five of his first six games this season. More to come on Friday’s article.
10/16 DFS Core Plays
10/16 DFS Value Plays
Ramsvs. Falcons
It’s safe to say that the Rams defense is very overrated. As for the Falcons defense, they are one of the worst in the league. I think that this game is the shootout of the week and I’ll have a mix of Robert Woods with Cooper Kupp with a combination of both in GPP lineups. I’m also high on the Falcons and think Julio Jones is due for a breakout game and this could finally be the week. Devonta Freeman is a lock for me on DraftKings because he is severely underpriced. Austin Hooper is also underpriced on DraftKings.
10/16 DFS Core Plays
10/16 DFS Value Plays
GPPGame(s) of the Week:
Jaguarsvs. Bengals
I still believe in Minshew Mania. Besides having the greatest mustache, I still think he had a bad game because he faced off against an underrated defense. I will side more with the Jaguars side on this one, but Joe Mixon is so cheap, especially on DraftKings. Their pricing seems to continue to be broken with Leonard Fournette as the sixth highest price RB for the slate when he should easily be priced higher. The Bengals have a lot of value plays for this week against a Jacksonville defense that is a shell of its former self.
10/16 DFS Value Plays
Billsare coming off a bye week and are most likely my lock in DST for FD at $5,500vs. the lowly Dolphins.
I’llbe back Friday with a deeper dive into all the NFL games for Week 7.
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I finally have a chance to dive deeper into an NHL slate that is more than three games. My goal is to focus on my three favorite games, one of which will be a game stack that I will use. Something I have learned with NHL DFS is paying up on defense. Sometimes people feel the value comes at defense, but I prefer to pay up at defense and build my lineups around better defenseman and a solid goalie. I’m mainly a GPP guy, but I’ll focus on the core plays that you can use for cash and GPPs. Before I dive in, please note that the Maple Leafs, Flyers, and Hurricanes are on the second night of a back to back so keep that in mind.
MapleLeafs vs. Capitals
Maple Leafs – The Maple Leafs might have the best offense in the NHL and I don’t believe that their defense is as good as it has been playing. They have a high powered offense and play at a higher tempo than most, which hurts their defense and makes them allow more goals than the norm. Given the Capitals’ weakness on defense thus far, I’ll be targeting the Maple Leafs in the majority of my lineups. Core plays for the Maple Leafs include their entire PP1 line which includes Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, John Tavares, Morgan Reilly, and Andreas Johnsoon. I’d focus on one lineup with four of these guys and another lineup with four of these guys, but include the one you left out in the previous lineup.
Capitals – This is quite surprising as the Capitals have allowed 4. 6. 1, and 6 goals in their last four games. It looks like even though their defense has struggled mightily, they are still a high powered offense, as they have scored 3, 5, 4 and 3 goals in their last four games. Given the Leafs may have some tired legs in the second night of a back to back, I’m targeting this as my favorite game stack of the night. Core plays for the Capitals include John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie.
KeyTakeaway – This will be my top game stack. This game should garner some ownership given thematchup, but you can be different by focusing more on the Capitals side overthe Leafs side. I wouldn’t be surprised at a 6-5 final score.
Avalanchevs. Penguins
Avs– This Power Play unit is one of the best and I’m seriously considering bothunits when it comes to using the Avs in tournaments. I believe the Leafs andCapitals will be so popular that the Avs may go overlooked. Core plays from Avsinclude Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan Mackinnon, Nazem Kadri, and Mikko Rantanen. Youcan also do GPP with Tyson Jost, Joonas Donskoi, and Samuel Girard.
Penguins– I’m not as high on the Penguins as I am with the Avs. The Avs are probably one of the most excitingteams to watch and have such a high powered offense and the Penguins are stillnursing a ton of key injuries. There is some value with the Penguins, but I’mnot as high on them Core plays from Penguins include Sidney Crosby, KrisLetang, and Patric Hornqvist.
KeyDFS Takeaway – As I mentioned, I’m more on the Avsside than the Penguins side, but the Penguins can be a sneaky GPP play.
OtherTeams to Target
Hurricanes– The Hurricanes are surprisingly one of the best teams right now. I think weshould ride the hot streak and continue to stack them even though they are on thesecond night of a back to back. The Sharks seem to be one of the weaker teamsin the league and the Hurricanes should feast on the Sharks. Core plays fromCarolina include Sebastian Aho, Dougie Hamilton, Jordan Staal, and NinoNiederreiter.
Sabres– The defense has been solid and the offense is one of the hottest thus far. Theymatch a less than impressive Ducks squad. Core plays from Buffalo includeJack Eichel , Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart. These guys willbe on the PP1 unit and are a top play for your stacks.
Asalways, I’ll be on the NHL Slack page for most of the day tomorrow.
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PGA DFS (10/16) – The CJ Cup
I hope you took it upon yourself to get a few golfers from my article last week. The Top 3 for me all finished Top 10 and even one won it all! I hope to be on point for you all once again.
CorePlays
SungjaeIm (FD : $10,300 ; DK : $9,700) – Mytop overall play for this tournament given he is in his hometown. I’ll be doingabout 100 lineups and he will be in half them given his above-average shortgame. Given the hometown play and a solid approach to green game, I’m all in onIm.
IanPoulter (FD : $9,900 ; DK : $8,900) – Best value play and will also bein a good chunk of my lineups. Besides being the angriest golfer on tour, he isa solid all around player. Given this is a more competitive tournament thanlast week, it will be tough to find some value, but he will garner someownership and you should use him too.
MyConsensus Value Rankings for this Tournament:
Pleasecontact me with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win DailySlack channel!
NFL Week 6 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 7 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings.
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Last week it was Adam Thielen that got the attention from quarterback Kirk Cousins. In NFL Week 6 it was all about getting Stefon Diggs involved. Diggs absolutely exploded for 167 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Vikings to a 38-20 rout of the Philadelphia Eagles. The main takeaway here is to always target these underpriced elite wide receivers. We all know how talented Diggs is and at his $5,900 salary on DraftKings against the Eagles defense he was an obvious GPP play. Diggs was featured in my NFL Week 6 Main Slate Breakdown. His ownership was at 2.9 percent in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP and 8.7 percent in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest. The Vikings take on the Lions in Week 7. Diggs is priced at just $6,300.
No matter how bad things seem to be for the Cleveland Browns, Chubb continues to be an absolute monster. Chubb rushed 20 times for 122 yards and two touchdowns and caught five of six targets for 17 yards in Sunday’s 32-28 loss to the Seahawks. Chubb is a three-down running back in the NFL and should continue to be a cash game option. He was owned in just 4.3 percent of lineups in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. More players were on him in GPPs with him at 8.6 percent in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest.
They are on a bye week in Week 7 and will play the Patriots on the road in Week 8. As for Seattle they have shown struggles against running backs. They have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to backs this season. They get the number one rushing attack in the NFL when they play the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7.
Speaking of Baltimore, check out their quarterback! Based on his rushing statisics you would not even think this guy played quarterback. Via PennLive.com Jackson became the first player to rush for more than 150 yards and pass for more than 200 yards in a single game in the Super Bowl era. He rushed for 152 yards on 19 carries even after losing yardage on three straight kneel-downs to end the game. If you are not playing Jackson in cash games you need to re-evaluate your process. His rushing upside provides a floor and ceiling combination that no other quarterback possesses. In yet his ownership percentages had him at 12 percent in the NFL $100K NICKEL and 12.8 percent in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP contest. His salary goes down to $6,800 in Week 7 on the road versus Seattle.
Carson continues to cruise. He had another outstanding game running the football. He rushed 24 times for 124 yards and a touchdown on the day. The main takeaway here is the fact that Carson had this production despite the Seahawks falling behind two scores early. Carson has over 500 rushing yards this season with 10 games remaining. He was at a super low price at $6,000 in NFL Week 6, but DraftKings has adjusted that to just $6,500 for Week 7. A lot of people were on Carson this week with his ownership at 29.7 percent in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP contest.
Hill finally returned to the lineup after missing the last month and his presence was felt immediately. He caught five passes for 80 yards and had two touchdowns. Again, what was most attractive about playing Hill this week in DFS for DraftKings was his price point. $6,900 for the Chiefs number one wide receiver is indeed too cheap. Hill will be off the main slate next week as the Chiefs play the Broncos on Thursday Night Football. In terms of ownership, Hill was owned in 2.5 percent of lineups in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP contest and 8.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest. Playing guys off injuries is a great way to still get players in great spots.
Scary Terry returned to his glory form! This comes to no coincidence as McLaurin got his quarterback back in the lineup with Case Keenum starting. Not only that, but the Dolphins were without their starting cornerback Xavien Howard, which set up nicely for McLaurin to smash. He was great, catching four of seven targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns. He should have been higher owned even at $6,000, but he came in at just 4.8 percent in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP and 11.2 percent in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest. His salary is at $6,100 in Week 7 when the Redskins play the 49ers.
For the second consecutive week, Watson exceeded 31 fantasy points on DraftKings. He continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football. He was at 14.4 percent ownership in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP contest. In the NFL $100K NICKEL contest his ownership was at 13.8 percent. His price increases by $300 in Week 7 to $7,000 when Houston plays at Indianapolis. In his one game played at the Colts, Watson threw for 375 passing yards and two touchdowns. This is a game that is going to feature a lot of scoring considering T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) averages over 100 yards per game when he plays the Texans. Hilton is a must-play in Week 7.
Chalk dust is what Malcolm Brown was in Week 6. Brown was heavily owned in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP, coming in with 66.5 percent ownership. However, the Rams offense totally fell apart under Jared Goff and Brown just saw 40 rushing yards. Though many thought that Brown was a free square this week it did not work out that way. There is always risk involved with a backup running backs at low prices, so in the future, it may make more sense to just pay up for unning back spots across the board. Brown will see extremely low ownership at $5,700 in Week 7.
The first overall pick is finally starting to get things going. He had his highest fantasy output of the season, scoring 31.8 fantasy points. He threw for 340 passing yards and three touchdowns. Murray was not that heavily owned in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest with his ownership coming in at just 8.8 percent. With the Giants on the schedule in Week 7, Murray is in another great spot to produce. Murray was $6,500 in Week 6 and his price has increased to just $6,700 for next week. The Giants allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position.
Can the Cardinals stop any tight end not named Tyler Eifert? Hooper was the chalk play at tight end this week, garnering 66.6 percent ownership in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP. In the GPP NFL $100K NICKEL contest Hooper had 42.1 percent ownership. Hooper ended the day with eight receptions for 117 receiving yards. He is an elite tight end at this point but is still being priced lower than he should be. In Week 7 Hooper is priced at just $5,300 versus the Rams. The Rams have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to the tight end position this season. Just keep playing him until DraftKings puts him over 6K. He has the most DraftKings fantasy points scored through six weeks at the tight end position.
Never pay up for the chalky high priced wide receivers. Yes, Jones did score 21.8 fantasy points on DraftKings, but that is not enough for a receiver that you paid $8,000 for. Jones had 11.9 percent ownership in the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP and 18 percent ownership in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest. He is back at $8,000 in Week 7 against the Rams, who could be without Aqib Talib. If owners are lower on Julio next week that could be the time to strike.
Back injury for D.J.? No problem! The Atlanta Falcons do not play defense! Johnson was owned in just 2.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $100K NICKEL contest. In the NFL GIANT $50 DOUBLE UP contest Johnson was at just 0.7 percent. The low ownership had to do with the back injury Johnson was dealing with throughout the week. In GPPs this is a perfect way to get off ownership and still get the opportunity to use a player in a great spot. Always be looking for these injuries. That is why it is crucial to be available to make late-game swaps. Johnson is playing the Giants in Week 7 at $7,8000 so he is going to be heavily owned coming off a productive week. Even so, as long as he is healthy he will be viable in both cash and GPP contests.
This report will provide favorite positional picks, stacks, and power play units for the 10/13 NHL DFS three-game slate.
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**Exercise caution on these smaller slates, very little room for error and very heavy chalk. Due to size of slate players listed will be limited to two per position.
Mark Scheifele (WPG) – Winnipeg is the obvious chalk for this evenings short slate, as they carry the highest implied scoring total (3.50) Scheifele has one goal, seven assists, and four blocks through five games this season. Winnipeg is a top three team in terms of shots on goal (200) through five games this season, so FL1 and FL2 should see plenty of opportunity.
Sydney Crosby (PIT) – Crosby has been an animal through five games. He has two goals, four assists and three blocks and will have face the Winnipeg Jets who allow more shots on goal than any team in the league through five games (211).
Honorable Mention: Tomas Hertl (SJS), Max Pacioretty (VGK)
Mark Stone (VGK) – This Vegas line provides some relief across the board so you can spend up on defense. Mark Stone has two goals, four assists, and two blocks The LA Kings allow the highest GAA in the NHL at 5.25 through four games, so these Vegas lines should see plenty of opportunity.
Kevin Labanc (SJS) – The main reason I like Labanc on this slate is the Power Play lineup for San Jose. They rank fourth in the league in PP opportunity (20) but have yet to cash in. They face a Calgary team that has allowed four PP goals in five games. LaBanc has one goal on the year but is averaging three shots a game. If the San Jose PP unit can get some decent ice time tonight I think Labanc can pay off easily.
Honorable Mention: Blake Wheeler (WPG), Matthew Tkachuk (CGY).
Brent Burns (SJS) – Just go ahead and hit the lock button on Burns. He has 21 shots on goal through five games, two goals, three assists, and three blocks. He has averaged over 26 minutes of ice time in the 2019-20 season and a lot of that has to do with the Power Play opportunities. Calgary has allowed the fifth most shots on goal (172) through five games.
Kris Letang (PIT) – Letang has provided a very safe floor of around 17 fantasy points per game through his first five games. He has one goal on 14 shots, three assists, and five blocks. He also serves on PIT PP1 and they have seen the third most opportunities (21) in 2019.
Honorable Mention: Erik Karlsson (SJS), Shea Theodore (VGK)
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG) – Hellebuyck is off to a nice start in 2019. He carries a 3-1 record and is averaging over 30 fpts per game. He had a very solid outing in his first game against PIT where he stopped 37 of 38 shots with one goal allowed. Hellebuyck carries a .937 SV% through five games and will face a Penguins team that is averaging just over two goals per game.
Honorable Mention: Malcolm Subban (VGK)
Winnipeg Jets – FL#1: Blake Wheeler/Mark Scheifele/Josh Morrissey
Vegas Golden Knights – FL#2: Max Pacioretty/Mark Stone/Shea Theodore
San Jose Sharks PP1: Logan Couture/Brent Burns/Tomas Hertl/Kevin Labanc
Whether you are playing cash games or GPPs, there is value all across the board so make sure you focus on using the best players with the highest projected ceilings, especially in GPPs. You will find all the best picks for NFL DFS Week 6 here.
I review them in the video above, but if you need a quick-hitting list here are some players that I am buying for my lineups. They include A.J. Brown, Odell Beckham Jr, Malcolm Brown, Lamar Jackson, Dede Westbrook, and Dalvin Cook.
The fade players include Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and any other high-priced chalky wide receiver. Are you ready for NFL DFS Week 6? I hope so because the competition is going to be fierce!
Image Via: Erik Drost
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To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal here in the 10/11 DFS column is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some fantasy gold. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!
Iwant to focus this article on a deep dive into NFL Week 6 and guide you to winbig. I will go game by game with my takes on each game along with my core andvalue plays for Week 6.
Deep Dive and Top Plays
Cowboys vs. Jets
I’mgoing to start with this game because you may not know this, but I’m a big Cowboysfan. In this game, the Cowboys are coming off two straight losses to actualcompetition and are looking to end this streak. Sam Darnold is back, which bumpsup the projections and values of a few players, but I’ll be on the Cowboys sidefor the most part.
Cowboys – The Jets rankin the middle of the pack for defense and have been pretty solid behind a pouroffense that was being run by Luke Falk. The Cowboys are projecting fora bounce back game and I’m high on Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. TheCowboys thrive against bad teams and I’d expect them to continue theirdominance against bad teams.
Jets – Sam Darnold is back, which means JamisonCrowder and Le’Veon Bell receive a boost in projections. In Week 1, JamisonCrowder had 10+ targets and had quite a game. Bell was also used in thepassing game and on the field for 100% of their offensive snaps. Le’Veon Bell will garner some ownershipand he’s projecting well over 20% for Week 6, but I won’t be that high on him.Yes, the Cowboys defense allowed 4 TDs to Aaron Jones, but the Dallas defenseis pretty solid and should bounce back against a poor Jets team.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
49ers vs. Rams
Thisgame is probably 1 of 3 games that I won’t be focusing on as much. I believethat this is a tough game to predict due to which LA Rams defense will show upthis Sunday. Jameis Winston had a field day against the Rams a few weeks agoand the Rams don’t look solid at all. Meanwhile, the 49ers are looking like oneof the best teams in the NFL and the defense might be legit. It’s still early,but time will tell.
49ers – I like the 49ers side for value, but it is very difficult to predict which Wide Receivers will perform as Jimmy Garoppolo loves to spread the ball around. George Kittle is severely underpriced and I’ll definitely have some shares on DraftKings. I also like the price tag of Marquise Goodwin on FanDuel. As for the running backs, I’m at a complete fade given how many they are using right now. I’d use them in GPPs, but a definite fade in cash.
Rams – Besides all our questions surrounding Gurley and his usage, we’re also wondering about Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. Cooper Kupp is settling in as Jared Goff’s favorite WR, but everyone else seems to be a big question mark. I do like the price tag for Robert Woods, but I’m not high on the Rams side given the rejuvenation of the 49ers defense.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Saints vs. Jaguars
Thishas the potential to be the sneakiest game of the slate, but I believe it’smore a GPP game stack then cash game. The New Orleans Saints defense is middleof the pack , but have one of the best run defenses in all of football. Meanwhile, the Jaguars defense is a shell ofits former self and ranks towards the bottom of the NFL. With two weak pass defenses,this has the potential to be a higher scoring game.
Saints – Is Teddy Bridgewater the real deal? He could be getting into the swing of things, but only time will tell. You can use him and Michael Thomas in GPP’s, but my main focus is going to be Alvin Kamara. He will be the only Saints player with most of my exposure.
Jaguars – I believe in Minshew Mania. That’s the first point I want to get across before I dive into this. DJ Chark is priced a little too high for me right now given his recent success so I won’t be using him in as many lineups except for my Gardner Minshew stacks in GPP’s. The value play for me will be Dede Westbrook. He is still a vital part of the passing game and he’s a solid salary saver. As for Leonard Fournette, he projects well, but this Saints run defense is the real deal and I won’t be as high on him. He does have high usage in this Jaguars offense, but the defense and price tag make me shy away from him. On DraftKings, I’m more on Fournette and Chark because of their price tags.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Seahawks vs. Browns
This isanother interesting game that I will have some pieces for my lineups, but alower amount of stacks. My favorite play of this slate is from this gamebecause of his price tag and usage and he will be in a lot of my GPP and cashlineups. Also, we see a pretty steep discount on Odell Beckham.
Seahawks – This is the moment you’ve been waiting for. My core play of the entire slate. Are you ready? If you listened to my podcast yesterday, you’ll know that I love the price tag of Tyler Lockett and he is going to be locked and loaded in my cash lineups along with most of my GPP lineups. Chris Carson has a pretty nice price tag, but I want to see one more solid game before I roster him in multiple lineups. D.K. Metcalf is also interesting to me, but I’ll mainly be on Lockett. Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman did just run all over this defense so I can see the case for Chris Carson, but I don’t trust him given his ball security issues.
Browns – If there is to be a bounce back game for the Browns, I think this might be the one. I see them trailing for a good portion of this game so they will be passing the ball a ton. Odell Beckham is at a discount and I’ll lock him in GPP lineups until I see more consistency. I’m mainly off the Browns for this game except for tournaments.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
Titans vs. Broncos
Thisgame is a fade for me. Since I’m doing 150 lineups on the Milly Makertournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ll have 1 or 2 stacks for each team,but I am far from a fan of this game.
Titans – The only two things I’m considering for the Titans are using their DST and a few Derrick Henry lineups. With a low Vegas total, this team is not a focus for me.
Broncos – Another low Vegas total for the Broncos and until they have someone other than Joe Flacco throwing to Emmanuel Sanders or Courtland Sutton, they are a fade. Sutton and Sanders do have a nice number of targets, but I’m not a fan because of Flacco. They are pretty much a fade for me.
10/11 DFS Core Plays
10/11 DFS Value Plays
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Bengals vs. Ravens
I tooka stab at this game in my Wednesday article talking about the Bengals and theirhorrific defense. In my $40,000 victory this past Sunday, I used the Bengals DSTand it hurt my chances at the $100,000. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in overall defense and rank 27thin points allowed.
Ravens – Given Lamar Jackson has struggled the past 2 weeks, I expect a bounce back game. I’m a little off Mark Ingram because of his price tag, but you can use him in GPP as he projects to be under 10% owned. Marquise Brown will garner ownership because of price tag, especially on FanDuel. Mark Andrews is just too cheap on DraftKings to pass up on him
Bengals – Although the Ravens defense is nothing to brag about, the Bengals offense has been struggling since week 2. I’m high on the Ravens defense is season long leagues, but that price tag is way too high in a matchup against a mediocre Bengals offense. The Bengals rank in the bottom 5 in offense as well, but they will be passing a lot this game given they will be trailing from the get go. I’ll have a few lineups with Joe Mixon and Auden Tate on DraftKings because of their price, but my main play in GPP’s will most likely be Tyler Boyd. The Bengals side of this game is not my favorite play, but I’ll have some GPP lineups with them.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Texans vs. Chiefs
I’mgoing to stick with this game as the “Game Stack of the Week”. Both sides will garner ownership given their letit fly mentalities
Texans – DeAndre Hopkins is due to breakout. Plain and simple. Given Will Fuller’s recent performance, I expect DeAndre Hopkins to break out of his funk versus a mediocre Chiefs defense. As always, we are unsure of what’s wrong with the DraftKings pricing model because Carlos Hyde is ridiculously cheap and the best value on the slate.
Chiefs – The same narrative can be said here about Travis Kelce. Kelce has struggled in recent weeks and Patrick Mahomes seems to be human. I’m hoping many shy away from the Chiefs given their price tags, but I’m still high on them this week given Atlanta was passing all over Houston last week. I don’t have Mahomes listed as a core play, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have shares of him.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Couldthis be the game that Julio Jones breaks out of his funk? He is one of myfavorite plays of this slate. I honestly think Hooper will go lower owned giventhe Cards shutting down Tyler Eifert, but I’m locking in Hooper as the Falconsare pass happy and I expect lots of targets to head Hooper’s way.
Falcons – Arizona defense is bad. Plain and simple. They arebroken when it comes to defending the TE. I will load up on Falcons stacks as I expect them to continue to be passheavy.
Cardinals – Kyler Murray is coming off his first win and this was without doing as well as we wanted him to. Given the Falcons and Cardinals having two of the worst defenses in the NFL, I’d expect a shootout. This game will most likely be my number two game stack I heavily use. Look for Christian Kirk news because I’ll be loading up on Larry Fitzgerald along with some KeeShan Johnson if Kirk is ruled out.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Eagles vs. Vikings
I sidemore with the Vikings side over the Eagles side for this game. Vikings DSTstill ranks as one of the top defenses, but they are susceptible to the pass. Isee the Eagles trailing in this game so they’ll need to pass. Ertz projectswell from the Eagles side.
Eagles – As I mentioned, my main target is Ertz, but Jordan Howard comes in as value on DraftKings given that he seems to have won the feature back role.
Vikings – This is where things get dicey. The Eagles secondary is garbage and Kirk Cousins should have a field day. The question is whether Stefon Diggs will finally have his breakout game. I’m high on him this week given his price tag, but you just never know. I do like Dalvin Cook this week after a down week in Week 5.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Redskins vs. Dolphins
Battle of the defeated! One of my least favorite games, but could be a GPP gold mine. There is value all over the place with this game and both defenses rank towards the bottom. Not much to dive deep into for this game as it has the lowest projected total in Vegas so I’ll keep the value plays on this end. I will have some Case Keenum and Terry McLaurin stacks given the chemistry they’ve had this season.
ValuePlays
My rankings for DST are as follows:
My offenses to target and stacks to focus on are as follows
Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!
I’ll be in Las Vegas this weekend so I’ll beon and off until Sunday morning, but please contactme with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slackchannel!
Are you ready for Week 6 DFS? I cannot believe it has gone by this quickly. It is nice to have a solid sample size of games to work with for data. We will go through each matchup game-by-game in the main slate, and I will give my best buys via DraftKings prices.
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This game looks like a get right spot for quarterback Lamar Jackson ($6,900). The Bengals are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The worst fantasy performance for a quarterback playing them has scored 16 fantasy points. Factor in Jackson’s rushing ability and he is a great player to roster into your cash lineups. The Bengals gave up 93 rushing yards last week to Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray. Also, do not overlook Mark Ingram II ($6,600) as the Bengals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Any running back that has seen at least ten carries versus them has scored at least 14 fantasy points. No team has a higher implied team total than the Ravens via RotoCurve at 29.75 points.
Via Ian Hartitz the Ravens are allowing 6.7 yards per play which is the second-highest of any defense so far in 2019. There is potential for the Bengals to score in this game and create a friendly atmosphere for fantasy points. Joe Mixon ($5,500) is the cheapest three-down back you will find on the slate. If you exclude Week 1 versus the Dolphins the Ravens defense has allowed the most rushing touchdowns and most red zone touches to opposing running backs. Mixon has ten of the 12 red zone touches this season on the Bengals.
If Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill do not play in this game you will want to play Byron Pringle ($3,500). He will act as the free square at the wide receiver position this week. Also if you are looking to fade a high-priced chalky wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400) consider pivoting to Travis Kelce ($7,000). Kelce has at least eight targets in every single game this season with at least 70 receiving yards. However, he only has one touchdown reception. This should change in Week 6 with positive touchdown regression coming from Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) and the Chiefs offense.
As for the Texans, I am not so sure we see the offensive explosion from last week. Playing in Kansas City is a much different spot than home against the Atlanta Falcons. Carlos Hyde ($4,400) is going to be overlooked with everybody flocking to the passing game. However, Hyde has to be considered because the Chiefs are allowing 5.3 yards per carry which rank second-highest in the NFL. When the Chiefs are at home, teams’ opponents are averaging 38.5 rushing attempts per game.
Are you part of Minshew Mania? Well, this week in DraftKings you may want to be. Gardner Minshew ($5,000) is one of the best valued lower-priced quarterbacks on the slate. He is averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. This week he is playing the Saints at home. New Orleans on the season has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Minshew has scored at least 14 fantasy points in each game this season and has scored 21 or more points in both of his home starts. He is also averaging right around 25 rushing yards per game. You will want to consider stacking Mishew with one or both D.J. Chark ($5,500) and Dede Westbrook ($5,100).
People are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. Chark is too cheap to pass on. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Specifically, it has been against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.
For New Orleans, it is worth paying up to get Alvin Kamara this week. We just saw Christian McCaffery absolutely tear up the Jaguars. Considering that Jalen Ramsey is also likely to play in the game, that could force more targets to the way of Kamara. Jacksonville gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position. The Jaguars have also allowed the second-most red-zone targets to the running back position. No team has allowed higher yards per attempt on the ground (5.5) than the Jaguars.
We saw the bounce-back effort from Vikings’ passing attack in Week 5 and that should continue in Week 6. Philadelphia gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Stefon Diggs ($5,900) comes in at cheap price and can definitely expose the Eagles’ secondary. Dalvin Cook ($8,400) is going to be avoided by the majority of players because the Eagles allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. However, Cook is heavily involved in the passing game and according to Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings are one of the best teams in terms of screen usage to their running backs from an efficiency standpoint. The Eagles are one of the worst teams at defending screens. Play Dalvin Cook in Week 6.
It’s time for Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,800) to bounce back. Beckham is still seeing a large target share on the Browns’ offense and is priced so low this week. The Seahawks pass-rush is not nearly as good as the 49ers so Baker Mayfield should have more time to throw the ball. The Seahawks have also given up some massive games to wide receivers this year. Cooper Kupp and John Ross both went over 100 receiving yards and scored touchdowns.
The best plays for value in this game are Adrian Peterson ($4,500) and Preston Williams ($4,100). Williams via @TJHernandez on Twitter leads the league in red-zone target share. Josh Rosen has shown chemistry with Williams throughout his starts with 19 targets in his last two games. The matchup is also amazing on paper as the Redskins have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
For Peterson, the narrative seems to be completely coach-driven. Interim head coach Bill Callahan has explicitly stated that he wants to run the ball more. Against the Dolphins it could not be a better spot to establish the run. Miami has given up the most fantasy points to running backs this season. In 2018 with the Redskins when Peterson saw at least 19 carries he averaged 100 rushing yards per game. For defenses, the Washington Redskins DST ($3,200) is also a great option. The Dolphins via PFF grades rank last in pass-blocking on the season. Washington sacked Tom Brady five times in Week 5.
Time to fire up your Austin Hooper shares ($5,000). Hooper draws the best matchup of the week versus the Arizona Cardinals who have been the worst team versus the tight end position. Hooper leads the league in routes run at tight end and the spot is just too good to pass him up at his price. I say it’s worth eating the high ownership with Hooper for cash games and going contrarian in tournaments.
Without Brandin Cooks, the Rams will be forced to play more 12-personnel on offense. That would be huge for a guy like Gerald Everett ($3,600) who is tenth in the league in tight end targets and second on the Rams in red-zone targets. He is by far the best punt play at tight end on the main slate.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,400) for the Jets has a real chance to be productive in this game for Dallas. Number one reason, of course, is the return of his quarterback Sam Darnold. The other reason is that the Cowboys have not been great versus pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, third-most targets, fifth-most yards, and third-most red-zone targets to the running back position. With Bell seeing 94% of the snaps in the backfield he is one of the best cash-game options on the main slate. He is averaging right under 26 touches per game, and with only one touchdown scored he is bound for some positive regression. Also, Jets DST ($1,500) also needs to be considered for cash because of how cheap that price is.
For the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) continues to come in at an extremely high-price. However, I believe that he can be a great GPP play because of how he disappointed as the chalk running back at home last week. In Week 5, Elliott was missing two key offensive linemen in La’el Collins and Tyron Smith. They should both be good to go in Week 6, which would help elevate Elliott’s production against a middle of the pack New York run defense.
This game features my favorite sneaky receiver to play in DraftKings on the Week 6 main slate. That receiver is A.J. Brown ($4,200). Last week he actually had a touchdown from Marcus Mariota negated by a penalty. He played in 64.5% of the snaps in Week 5 which was the highest of the season. It was the first time all season that he out-snapped both Adam Humphries and Tajae Sharpe. He has low price, to go along with a matchup that suits him to have a blow-up game in Week 6. With the Broncos up next cornerback Chris Harris will most likely be shadowing Corey Davis allowing Brown to see more looks. Just last week Keenan Allen drew coverage from Harris and Chargers’ wide receiver two Mike Williams saw a season-high 13 targets. Brown ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.38) of any players that have at least 19 targets.
For the Broncos, the best matchup on paper they have is at tight end. The Titans are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Noah Fant ($2,900) ranks in the top-ten in the NFL in routes run at tight end through the first five weeks. Fant is definitely the third option in the Broncos’ passing attack. Courtland Sutton ($5,000) also continues to be a value at wide receiver. He ranks tenth in the NFL in receiving yards (401).
WIN DAILY is excited and proud to welcome DFS Pro Javier Prellezo to the team! Check out his incredible career DFS accomplishments in his bio at the bottom of the page.
Win Daily DFS Grinders: Happy Wednesday to you!!
To those of you that don’t recognize me, I go by JPrellezo on FanDuel and DraftKings, but you can call me Javi. My goal is to assist you in becoming more successful and profitable with some DFS Diamonds. I’ll go through what works for me and I hope I can guide you to the Promised Land!
For those of you that were in our Premium Gold Slack Chat this past week, I was trying to guide you all to push for Christian McCaffrey. They are simply forcing him the ball and rolling the offense towards CMC. Until they decide to lighten the workload, you need to keep pushing CMC as a CORE PLAY. Unfortunately, he’s not on the main slate for this week so it’s time to be sad.
MostDFS sites, pros, players, etc. don’t focus on the next week until later on inthe week, but I want to provide an early look into Week 6. I want to focus onthe top 3-5 games that I’m currently leaning towards for Week 6. I will take adeeper dive into the games later in the week.
DFS Cash Game Plays and Top Plays
Bengals vs. Ravens
This isn’t a game to target on both sides, but more on the Ravens side. The Bengals defense is bad and for those of you that took advantage of the cheap price on the Bengals DST were thoroughly disappointed. Given two straight weeks of disappointment for Lamar Jackson, I’d expect a BIG bounce-back game for Jackson and the Ravens offense. Keep your eye on Marquise Brown and his ankle throughout the week.
DFS Core Plays
ValuePlays
Texans vs. Chiefs
To be honest, this might be the game stack of the week. Texans vs. Falcons did NOT disappoint and I don’t think this game will either. Given two mediocre defenses and two killer offenses, I’ll be heavily invested in this game and I’d expect it to be the chalk. Keep your eye on Patrick Mahomes, who was hobbling all game on that ankle.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Many may shy away from this game because of how bad both teams are, but I wouldn’t say their offenses are as bad as their defenses. Austin Hooper will be the chalk given the Cardinals defense versus TEs, but hopefully, ownership will shy away from Hooper a little given that they shut down Tyler Eifert.
CorePlays
ValuePlays
GPP Game(s) of theWeek:
Redskins vs. Dolphins
Battle of the defeated! Who will get their first win or will they tie? Honestly, both defenses are bad, both offenses are bad. I suspect that many will NOT be on this game because of how bad they are, but this could be GPP gold. I side more with the Redskins side for offense, but with the Dolphins coming off a bye week. You just never know.
ValuePlays
Eagles vs. Vikings
Kirk Cousins is alive! I feel like most players will shy away from this game because of what the Eagles just did, but I expect the Vikings to feast on this terrible defense. The Vikings are motivated and Dalvin Cook had an off week. I expect Dalvin Cook to be a CORE PLAY!
CorePlays
ValuePlays
This is NOT a homer pick, but if Darnold is out this week once again, I’d say load up with the Dallas DST and move on from anyone else. Luke Falk is terrible and bad defenses (like the Eagles) have been feasting. The word is that Sam Darnold will be active, but be on the lookout for this news.
I’ll be back Friday with a deeper dive into my favorite NFL games for Week 6.
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Three game slates are NOT my favorite, but I do like to max enter on low-cost entries to see if we can hit big. My strategy is to put in 10-20 lineups for each team. Ideally, you can do 10 PP1 for each team and 10 PP2 for each team. It isn’t the best strategy, but it worked more times than once. I’d also recommend doing different combos of game stacks and hope for a 6-5 shootout in one of the games. With these PP lines, I’d focus on a game stack or focus on a particular stack that you’re in love with to mix and match,
Kings vs. Canucks
Kings – The Kings were bad last year and will continue to be bad. Losing 6-5 to Edmonton in their first game shows us a promising offense. As expected, their defense is bad and the Canucks could be a sneaky stack even though they are supposed to be any good this year. Core plays for the Kings include Anze Kopitar, Tyler Toffoli, and Ilya Kovalchuk.
Canucks – A young squad with lots to learn. This game might the one we want to avoid given the inconsistencies of both teams. I don’t know what to expect, but there are some solid core players here. Core plays for the Canucks include Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Alexander Edler.
Key Takeaway – Being on the second night of a back-to-back, I’d load up on the PP1 and PP2 of the Canucks. Nothing is sneaky on a three game slate, but the Canucks are a solid play against the worst team in the NHL. I’d fade the Kings.
Devils vs. Flyers
Devils – The defense has been suspect through two games and offense seems middle of the pack. I’d fade them for now, but the offense does look promising coming off what they did last year. Core plays from New Jersey include P.K. Subban, Taylor Hall, Wayne Simmonds, Travis Zajac, and Kyle Palmieri.
Flyers – One game, one win. They allowed three goals on the path to a 4-3 win against the lowly Blackhawks. This game has the potential for high scoring given the rivalry and the poor defenses on both sides. I’d target more the Flyers side vs. the Devils side. Core plays from Philadelphia include Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, and Shea Gostisbehere.
Key DFS Takeaway – This game has the potential to be high scoring so a game stack isn’t out of the question, but I’d prefer the Sabres vs. Canadians in that regard.
Canadiens vs. Sabres
Canadiens – Through two games, they’ve allowed three goals and five goals while losing both games in Shootouts. Defense looks to be a problem for the Canadiens, but the offense does NOT. I’d stack the top two PP lines with a focus on the PP1. Core plays from Montreal include Phillip Danault, Shea Weber, and Brendan Gallagher.
Sabres – They have beat two solid teams thus far with only three goals allowed thus far in the first two games. The offense put up seven recently against a solid Devils team, so we can wait and see to see how it goes, but I would just focus on the Canadiens side as of now. Core plays from Buffalo include Jack Eichel , Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson, and Sam Reinhart. These guys will be on the PP1 unit and have good value for your stacks.
Key DFS Takeaway – My primary game stack play would be this one. Both defenses are pretty suspect and both offenses seem to be strong this year. If I had to pick a side for this game, I’d choose Buffalo.
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PGADFS (10/9) – Houston Open
CorePlays
Doc Redman (FD : $8,400 ; DK : $7,200) – Best value for this tournament. He can find his way into contention given he is third in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. Best value on the slate and will most likely be the chalk.
Harris English (FD : $9,900 ; DK : $8,900) – Weak field and this is your most expensive play on both sites, but this golfer was once elite. He’s an above-average with his putter and his short game is one of the best in the game. Although he has a weak approach game, he can be trusted given the weak field of this tournament.
My Consensus Value Rankings for this Tournament:
Please contact me with any questions on Twitter @Javi_Prellezo or on our Win Daily Slack channel!
This report will provide favorite positional picks, stacks, and power play units for the 10/7 NHL DFS two-game slate.
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**Exercise caution on these smaller slates, very little room for error and very heavy chalk. Due to size of slate players listed will be limited to two per position.
Braden Schenn (STL) – Schenn gives us some of the value we need if we are going to spend up for defense, which is my goal tonight. Schenn has one goal on five shots, and one block in his first two games. St. Louis has five goals through two games to start the season.
Jack Eichel (BUF) – The Sabres have the best goal differential in the NHL through their first two games (ten goals, three against). Eichel has one of those goals on seven shots and one assist. I love pairing Eichel with the rest of the Buffalo FL1 (Olofsson, Reinhart) as the Blue Jackets have been one of the worst teams in the league, allowing 11 goals against and a differential -8 through two games.
Punts -Auston Matthews (TOR), Marcus Johansson (BUF)
Sam Reinhart (BUF) – I will look to complement Eichel with ice mate Sam Reinhart who has two goals on five shots and one assist. He ended his 2018 season with 22 goals, 43 assists, and 47 blocks.
Victor Olofsson (BUF) – Olofsson was promoted from AHL late last season and has not disappointed in his first appearances in 2019. He has two goals on six shots and one assist. He scored 63 points in 66 games in AHL action and the 7th round pick is primed to be a big part of this Sabres offense in 2019.
Punts – Andreas Johnsson (TOR), William Nylander (DET).
Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) – The Sabres collectively have looked like the best team on ice in their first two starts and Dahlin is a big part of it. He comes in at a fair salary and has three assists and one goal to back it. As stated earlier, Columbus has one of the worst scoring offenses to begin the season and Rasmus serves on their PK1 unit who has the 5th best penalty kill rate in the NHL.
Morgan Rielly (TOR) – Rielly has been fantastic through his first two starts, recording seven shots, five assists, and four blocks. His price is steadily rising but his pure ability on the ice gives him upside no other defender on the slate has.
HM: Colin Miller (BUF), Alex Pietrangelo (STL)
Frederik Andersen (TOR) – There really is no “safe” goalie tonight but if I have to pick one it would be Frederik Andersen. He boasts a .927 SV% but faces a St. Louis offense that just hasn’t gotten things going. I like Andersen mostly for win upside.
Carter Hutton (BUF) – Same applies as with Andersen. Hutton carries a .939 SV% percentage and is backed by one of the better defenses in the league. He draws a matchup against a Blue Jackets team that has struggled to find the back of the net.
Buffalo Sabres – FL#1: Jack Eichel/Victor Olofsson/Sam Reinhart
Toronto Maple Leafs – FL#2: Auston Matthews/William Nylander/Andreas Johnsson
Honorable Mention: Toronto Maple Leafs FL2, Buffalo FL2
Buffalo PP1: Rasmus Dahlin/Jeff Skinner/Jack Eichel/Sam Reinhart
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