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daily fantasy baseball

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday, July 4th

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Sunday, July 4th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Opening up this 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate on Sunday, the first thing that jumped out to me was how deep the pitching pool was with clear aces up top but also some really strong and under-priced options as we scroll down the available players.

There is a very clear upper SP1 tier with Cole, Peralta, Ray and Giolito and as both Adam and Jared pointed out, the pricing on Charlie Morton ($7.8K) in this spot against the Marlins just screams high PP/$ upside.

The one other arm that jumped out to me for value though was Kenta Maeda ($6.2K) who is now at his season-low price point against the Kansas City Royals today.

Maeda has had an up and down season and it seemed like after a month on the IL with arm/groin injuries, that things were starting to tick back up. Maeda went 4 innings, threw 76 pitches, striking out 7 and giving up just 1 ER on his way to 14 DK points against Seattle, and then went 84 pitches and 5+ innings against Texas with 4 K’s and 16 DK points and things seemed to be trending up.

Then he started against the White Sox last time out and while he threw 92 pitches (good), he walked 5 and gave up 7 ER and hence the price decrease on DK. Here is the thing though – dig into that start a little more and the .444 BABIP and just 22% hard contact rate tell you this was far more bad luck than a pitcher who was getting waxed.

The elevated walk rate is was a true statistical outlier as Maeda had not only walked more than 2 batters all season before that outing and maybe it was a simple result of his turn being PPD on back-to-back days that forced him to lose his feel.

Maeda’s match-up today against a right-handed heavy Royals team is one I think he can exploit as Kansas City ranks bottom 5 in team ISO against RHP and bottom 3 in hard contact with just a 30% hard contact rate.

The Royals also struggle to handle the slider, the primary swing and miss offering that Maeda uses nearly 45% of the time against right-handed batters and with no single right-handed batter with over a 70% contact rate against the pitch type and 4 of the 6 RHB in the projected line-up with 40-50% whiff rates, there is massive bounce-back potential for Maeda in this spot.

Now paying down for pitching today means you can stack some serious bats, and while we may not have Coors Field on this slate, there are plenty of other high octane offenses we can prioritize.

My absolute favorite spot for GPP’s today is in Philadelphia with Blake Snell and Vincent Velazquez on the mound for the Padres and Phillies.

On the season – there are only 5 arms that have given up a 40%+ hard contact rate to right-handed batters – arms like MadBum, Peterson, Civale and Mr. Blake Snell.

Snell’s struggles outside of San Diego have been serious as well, with his K rate dropping from 35% down to 23%, his xFIP nearly doubling from 2.7 up to 5 and his HR/9 rate jumping from .7 to 2.2.

With a 52.5% hard contact rate to RHB this year – it is fire up the Phillies time, especially those with power against high-velocity fastballs like Snells. All of Hoskins, Realmuto and McCutchen have 400+ ISO marks against that pitch type from lefties and Bryce Harper has .300+ ISO marks against both the fastball and slider which are the primary weapons against LHB.

Speaking of high-velocity fastballs that get walloped – welcome in Vinny Velo to the party who has reverse splits that have allowed the right-handed to touch him up for a .225 ISO and 50% fly-ball rate.

Let’s see – who has right-handed power that could possibly take advantage of these splits? Oh yeah – Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres duo has a .300 ISO and 60% HC rates against the fastball velocity from right-handers like VV and average distances of 350+ – yeah, these guys seem like easy HR calls.

We have a hitters umpire, sunny skies and the winds blowing out 5-7 MPH in Philly – welcome to the fireworks my friends, this game stack is going to go nuts!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a really solid 9 game MLB DFS slate today and while we have top arms available, I am finding myself looking more towards a cheap Morton/Maeda pairing on DK where I can lock in a high power game stack in Philadelphia with two arms that give up massive hard contact.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/04

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Happy July 4 everyone. Hope you will all get to celebrate with good food and a drink in hand. Today’s slate, while a little smaller than normal for a Sunday, provides us with solid options on the hill and also some solid options at the plate. It’s shaping up for a fun slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.9k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I should preface this pick with saying that the Pirates are not a high strike out time. That somewhat puts a cap on Peralta’s ceiling today. Peralta however is an elite strikeout arm. Strike out pitchers find strike outs. There’s a reason they are strike out pitchers.

If Houser was able to K 5 against this team on Friday night, I see no reason why Peralta can’t get that number up to 7 or 8. My concern always with Peralta is his efficiency. He throws a lot of pitches in a short period of time and rarely goes beyond 6 innings. That said, he has a great match-up today against a weak hitting Pirates lineup. With Peralta’s elite level 37% K rate, I see some upside in him today.

Charlie Morton ($9k) vs. Miami Marlins – Over the past week the Marlins have the third highest K rate of any team in baseball and the third lowest hard hit rate. I’m going to attack them, especially when a solid pitcher is on the mound. Today we have a solid pitcher throwing against them in Morton.

Over the past month Morton has been pitching extremely well. He has a 27% K rate to go with a 3.7 XFIP. He’s giving up a ton of grounders also which really helps to limit damage as he’s only given up one long ball in his last 29 innings of work. With the Marlins struggling and Morton pitching well, he’s my clear number 2 today.

Lucas Giolito ($9.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is the cheapest we are getting Giolito in more than a month. He gets a great match-up today against a team that has a 26% K rate this year vs. righties. While the Tigers will show some signs of life every now and then, if we look at their body of work as a whole this season they are still a very weak offense. Especially against righties.

They have one of the lowest wRC+’s of any team today against the handedness at which they are facing. It sits at just 91. With Giolito we’re still getting a pitcher who has a 27% K rate over the past 30 days and an xFIP under 4.

The one area of concern with Gio is that he is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace. He’s given up 8 in his last 31 innings. While it is a high number, he doesn’t put many runners on with a WHIP of just 1.03 over that same time frame. So we know if he gives up a homer or two they will more than likely be solo shots.

I also really like Robbie Ray ($10.8K). He’s just really expensive and when we look at price point and match-up, I like the other 3 better. He still warrants consideration as he has a ton of upside every outing with his extremely high K rate.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson – While I prefer the Brewers vs. against righties, they do have a handful of guys that hit for power vs. lefties.

I like attacking pitchers that have low K upside and have a high HR/FB ratio. We have that today in Anderson. His HR/FB ratio is 18.5% which is the second highest on the slate. His K rate at 12.7% over the past 30 days is the second lowest on the slate.

With how hot the Brewers have been recently, you just have to love the match-up here. The two guys that standout the most to me today with the Brewers are Garcia ($3k) and Taylor ($2.3k). Both have ISO’s greater than .260 against lefties this year and wOBA’s over .370. I’m building around them. All Brewers are in play though as they are just scorching hot right now.

Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Manning – White Sox are a little banged up right now but they have a great match-up today. Manning hast just not been good since getting called up to the bigs. So far this year he’s giving up a 56% hard hit rate with just a 6.7% K rate. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact and not getting any K’s.

If we look at splits, the hard hit rate is pretty much equal to both sides of the plate. Where we see the difference is the fly ball rate as it jumps to 44% vs. lefties. Because of that, I want to prioritize the lefties. If Goodwin ($3.1k) hits in the cleanup spot, he’s a must play. Sheets ($3.2k) is also a must play as he gets the platoon match-up and he’s swinging a hot bat. Over the past week he has a .531 wOBA and a 1.345 OPS. All batters in this lineup should be in play today.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brad Keller – Twins lost a little bit of their lineup yesterday with Donaldson getting banged up, but I really like this spot for the Twins. While Keller is a high ground-ball pitcher, he’s also someone that when giving up a fly ball there’s a strong likelihood of the ball going over the fence due to his high hard hit rate. Keller has one of the highest HR/FB ratios of the pitchers going today.

In looking at his pitch profile he’s a sinker ball pitcher. Twins have some guys that have had great success against this pitch. Nelson Cruz ($4.2k) automatically comes to mind. Over the past several seasons he has a .255 ISO to this pitch with a low whiff rate. He’s also been heating up as he has a .505 wOBA over the past week with a 1.218 OPS. He’s my building block with a Twins stack. While he hasn’t been hot of late, Arraez ($3k) will be hitting lead-off and also has some success against this pitch.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. Make sure to keep an extra eye on lineups. Unlike the last few days we are blessed with clear skies everywhere today.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Premium

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday, July 3

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Saturday, July 3rd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate Saturday of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we start the day with a solid 6 game slate that has high strikeout arms at all tiers and some sneaky offenses that are in strong spots.

While the top-tier arms are certainly playable, I am in lockstep with Adam after peaking at Starting Rotation – we have two under-priced high K options in Tarik Skubal and Kyle Muller that allow us really to capture upside without paying a premium.

Paying down for this duo allows me to pay up for bats and that starts with the San Diego Padres against RHP Zach Eflin in Philadelphia. Eflin is giving up a 44% hard contact rate and matching 44% fly-ball rate to left-handed batters this season and his slider/sinker combination match-up perfectly with the batted ball profiles of Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham. Ideally, you can work the left-handed bats here around the stars in the middle with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado and anchor to arguably the most talented offense on this early slate.

The Reds left-handed bats are where I would correlate as they face Adbert Alzolay who is giving up a .311 ISO and 50% HC rate to left-handed batters and has to face them in Great American Ballpark where we know the ball can fly.

Jesse Winker profiles extremely well here against the slider/sinker tendencies of Alzolay and I would argue he is one of the premium bats on this early slate with massive ISO and HC rates against both the Cubs pitch types to left-handed batters.

If the Padres game gets rained out or if it’s too risky – I think staying in this Cincinnati game with a game stack of bats could work well. Tyler Mahle has extreme splits with a .223 ISO mark to right-handed batters this season and his primary offering, the slider, which he throws 45% of the time to RHB has been hit to the tune of a .260 ISO.

Patrick Wisdom has serious numbers against this pitch type with a massive .353 ISO and average distance traveled of 399 feet off this pitch type from RHP. Sneaky HR call of the day right here with the winds blowing out in GABP and a massive hitter’s umpire.

Main Slate Breakdown

The 7 game MLB DFS Pick and Pivots Main Slate is far less forgiving with arms as Clayton Kershaw is essentially a must-play on a slate without a single other even average option. Due to the fact Kershaw is a near lock button play, it will mean a lot of similar lineup builds and constructions so we need to think a little strategically on this Main Slate.

One way to gain leverage – use the arms in Coors Field, specifically a high ground ball arm like Kyle Freeland ($5.9K). Over his last 10 home starts, Freeland has shown the boom or bust nature with 2 starts of 20+ DK points and 4 games where he went full negative (Ponce De Leon style).

Freeland is coming off back to back strong outings with 7 K’s in each game which is intriguing considering we typically view him as a high ground ball pitcher so these swings and misses give him more wiggle room if he does get himself in trouble. At under $6K tonight – he could pay off in a big way and give us leverage on Cardinals chalk night.

With Garret Richards on the mound and in the midst of a disastrous run of starts that have coincided with the sticky stuff crackdown – I am going right back to the Oakland Athletics and attacking a pitcher who has been absolutely waxed the last 4 starts. The A’s offense is priced fairly and with 50% hard contract rates to hitters from both sides of the plate – do not be afraid to mix and match the lefties and righties for the A’s here as a full 5 man stack could pay off in GPP’s.

The other mini stack I love here tonight is the Los Angeles Dodgers and a lot of that has to do with the pricing as we can get Cody Bellinger ($3.7K) at a significant discount against RHP Pablo Espino who is giving up a 45% HC rate to LHB. This is a spot where the Dodgers lefties like Bellinger, Gavin Lux and Max Muncy can allow you to mini-stack the splits and then attack the Nationals bullpen with Espino still not fully stretched out.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

These two MLB DFS slates today play very differently in that the early slate has a plethora of arms and multiple solid stacks which allow you to play it more as “best plays.”

The Main Slate though in my mind is far more strategic and I am going to be heavily interested in ownership. With Kershaw feeling like a must have, I think builds will look and feel the same and so finding leverage off the chalk bats, and pivot stacks, is going to be my primary focus this evening.

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, July 2

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Friday, July 2nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Like what you see here? Looking to build that summer bankroll in MLB, PGA, and NASCAR before NFL season? Use Promo Code “Summer” and get two months of Win Daily Sports Access for just $44.44 up until July 4th! Sign up now!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in my friends to a 14 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Friday FREEBIE special where we have a ton of games highlighted by some periphery rain risk, some ace level arms and another game in Coors Field!

Any time we have a slate of this size, my first piece of advice is to work quickly to minimize your player pool and try and consolidate where your focus is as an MLB DFS player. All too often in Discord here at Win Daily Sports, players come in on large slates and start with “but how about this arm or this stack or this player.”

The reality is – there are TONS of paths that are viable but trying to chase after every single one is going to leave you confused and grasping to build lineups right up until lock. Now it also means there are significantly more probable winning builds which makes taking down a GPP on a slate of this size that much harder, but drowning out the noise and being focused on your builds is step number 1.

It all starts with pitchers and the most important aspect of MLB DFS in my humble opinion is anchoring to high strikeout arms. Last night was such a perfect example where even though Jacob deGrom struggled at the start of the game and gave up some *gasp* actual runs – he quickly went back to being deGOAT and struck out 14 batters and it is that ability to withstand hits/runs with K upside that makes anchoring to high K arms the most important part of your lineup building process.

Over the last month, being able to navigate through the sticky stuff has made anchoring to those arms that much more challenging, but we have enough data now to start to see which arms have maintained the high K upside and it is those we need to be focused on.

If you look at the last 30 days across Major League Baseball, there are only two pitchers on tonight’s slate that have the elite K metrics we covet with 30% or higher strikeout rates and 15% or higher swinging strikes rates.

What I love is that both of these arms are prominently featured in Adam Strangis Starting Rotation today – the single best MLB DFS Pitching Breakdown and today it is 100% FREE – please, I implore you to read this – it is the most comprehensive pitching breakdown you will find at any site.

The first is likely not a surprise with Max Scherzer ($10.5K) who continues to operate as SP1 on every single slate he is on with a 31.6% K rate and 17.4% swinging strike rate over the last 30 days. While the fly ball rate and hard contact rates remain elevated on Mad Max, there is certainly risk that a healthy Dodgers line-up is able to knock in 2-3 runs against him – but this to me is much like the spot we saw with deGrom last night.

Were the Braves the ideal line-up to pay a premium to attack? No. Are the Dodgers? No.

The thing is, you are not paying the freight to attack those lineups, you are paying for the lone arm over $10K because of the double-digit K ability and in a DFS sport where K’s are King – I want to build around that upside whenever I can get it.

One of the reason it is so easy to “pay the premium” is because of that second arm I mentioned before, the only other one on tonight’s slate with a 30%+ K rate and 15%+ SS rate the last month.

Welcome to my SP2 spot Logan Gilbert ($6.6K).

Over the last 30 days, Gilbert’s 30.3% K rate and 16% SS rate put him in an elite company and this is a spot where you are getting SP1 strikeout metrics for a SP2 bargain price.

The match-up for Gilbert against a K-heavy Rangers team with a 25%+ K rate against RHP this season just adds to the intrigue for the Mariners top prospect and as Adam broke down in Starting Rotation, the pitch mitch changes for Gilbert indicate this K upside is here to stay.

Being able to go high/low here on DraftKings with your pitching choices not only lets you anchor to high upside strikeout arms but it also opens up the door to essentially any of the top hitting stacks of the night with $4.1K per batter for the rest of your build.

The first stop on this hitting tour for me has to be the Kansas City Royals against JA Happ.

If you have been part of the Win Daily Sports family, you know JA Happ day is a national holiday around these parts as our FanDuel expert Jared Levitt has been banging the drum for stacking against the Twins lefty every single slate!

Against right-handed batters this season Happ ranks among the worst in baseball with a 2.1 HR/9 rate, a 50% fly ball rate and a massive .267 ISO mark. The Royals are likely to trot out 8 right-handed batters tonight and this spells trouble for the veteran lefty!

Any Royals stack starts with the C/2B duo of Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield as you get to build around two elite bats at premium positions. Perez has a monster .367 ISO against LHP since the start of last season and if you dig into the pitch type, you start to see why Perez has owned this match-up historically (7 for 14 with 4 HR’s and a .857 ISO mark).

Happ relies on a low 90’s fastball nearly 60% of the time to RHB, a pitch type that Perez has a .300 ISO, 55% HC rate and wait for it – an average distance traveled of 456 feet.

No read that again.

FOUR. HUNDRED. FIFTY. SIX. FEET. AVERAGE.

Imagine not thinking Salvy is homering tonight. Lock button.

Past the obvious, I want to look for right-handed batters with power and fly ball tendencies. Hunter Dozier is arguably the third-best play in this Royals stack as his 50% fly-ball rate against LHP leads this Royals team in 2021 and he has a similar power profile against every single offering from Happ.

Against the low-velocity fastball, a .227 ISO and 60% HC rate, and against the slider he has a .300 ISO and 52% HC rate which accounts for 75% of the pitch type profile against Happ that Dozier hammers.

The last time Happ faced this Royals line-up – he gave up 3 HR’s – two to Perez and one to Dozier. When the profile matches up with BvP, you can start to see there is a reason!

Well, it is a day that ends in Y and so you know that means it is time for us to stack the Tampa Bay Rays!

The Rays have an intriguing boom or bust match-up tonight against Jays right-hander Alek Manoah who will return after serving his five game suspension. Manoah has the kind of profile that could either dominate the Rays or serve up multiple HR’s – which is exactly why I love this spot for GPP’s.

Manoah has served up a 2.1 HR/9 rate thus far in his rookie year despite his high K output and his 40%+ fly ball rate and 45% hard contact are the metrics we are really looking to attack.

Manoah has had two games this year where the HR ball has bit him hard with 4 HR’s allowed to the Orioles and 3 HR’s to the Marlins but in the other games he has dominated and as I pointed out before his last start, it has been slider that has determined much of his success.

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1408467316388646921

Against the Orioles last start the slider was used 34% of the time and as his highest swing and miss pitch, it was interesting to see that he saw an uptick in velocity on it – throwing it a season high 83+MPH.

Now the Rays are a team that we know can strike out, but they also have multiple bats with low K rates and high ISO marks against the slider including Joey Wendle and Ji Man Choi have just 25% whiff rates while sporting .200+ ISO marks.

Get ready for the 2Lock Picks and Pivots party – you knew it was coming.

You know who hammers the slider? Take a guess.

Oh Captain my Captain!

That’s right – Picks and Pivots cover boy Austin Meadows! How does a .456 ISO with just a 15% ground ball rate and 20% whiff rate sound? I cannot wait for the HR notification tonight that Austin Meadows homered on a slider from Manoah. It probably comes right after a Salvador Perez HR too. It is going to be glorious.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

On a huge MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate like we have here, we are going to have a ton of options and ownership will be a huge determining factor on how much we pivot off this first look but I would expect Coors Field will soak up enough ownership we can find our ways to be different.

I hope you all enjoyed the last few days of FREE Picks and Pivots and please make sure you grab our July 4th promo as we will be going back behind the paywall for the summer! Believe me – after you get Austin Meadows sub 5% owned HR’s tonight, you’ll be able to cover the cost of $44.44 for two months.

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 7/01

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 4 games at 1pm and a 7 game main slate.

Both slates today see some risky pitching options. With risky pitching options comes offenses in some really nice spots. My goal on both slates will be to provide with some aces and some bats to help you get into the green and score a takedown.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

The early slate today is a very risky slate. 3 of the 4 games have weather concerns, with 2 being serious enough where this could end up being a 2 game.

Pitching wise you should lock inJose Berrios ($10.5k) and move on. He gets a good match-up against a White Sox team that has been struggling over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they put up a big number but it was against 2 pitchers that probably shouldn’t be in the majors in Ober and Shoemaker.

Carlos Rodon ($11k) is the best pitcher on the slate talent wise but he’s taking on a projected Twins lineup that has only a 21% K rate on the year to lefties and a .313 wOBA. I don’t really like the match-up for him.

Hitting wise we need to be a little different than our opponents as it’s such a small slate. I’m going to do that by looking at the Seattle Mariners against Hyun Jin Ryu. Outside of his 1 start against the Orioles, Ryu has been pretty bad over the past month. His swinging strike rate is sitting at 8% and he’s giving up about 20% more hard contact than soft contact. The bats I’d focus on there are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.7k).

The next spot I’d look at are the Boston Red Sox against Kris Bubic. Bubic has really been struggling. In his last 18 innings of work he’s given up 8 homers. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton of hard contact. His xFIP over the past 30 days is sitting right around 5. He’s actually been worse this season against lefties so we don’t need to avoid guys like Devers or Verdugo. The 3 guys I’m most focused Bogaerts ($4k), Martinez ($4.3k), and Renfroe ($3.5k). All three of these guys have ISO’s greater than .240 over the past 3 seasons when facing lefties. They smash lefties and Bubic is a smashable lefty.

I have very low confidence the Yankees/Angles game plays today. If it does, both teams would make great stacks as Canning and Montgomery have been pretty bad of late.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jacob Degrom ($11.5K) vs. Atlanta Braves – Degrom is hands down the best pitcher on the slate. He has a staggering 42% K rate over the past 30 days with a 21% swinging strike rate. I don’t need to sell you on his talent. My only concern with Degrom is that he hasn’t been going deep into the games recently. Due to injuries he’s had several outings cut short.

The good news is that his arm hasn’t been taxed that much. He hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in a game since April. With the Mets blowing through their bullpen in games recently do they give him a longer leash than they have? I hope so.

Corbin Burnes ($10.6K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – As Adam pointed out in the Starting Rotation today, the spin rate monsters have caught up to Burnes. He’s seen a pretty significant drop in spin rate with his cutter. With that being his main pitch we’ll need to use him with caution. That said, he still has an elite 35% K rate over the past 30 days.

While the Pirates aren’t a high strike out team (their projected lineup today has a 19% K rate vs. righties), they’re also not hitting for much power. Against righties this season they have just a .655 OPS and .121 ISO. Those are pretty bad numbers. Burnes is my clear #2 behind Degrom.

Ian Anderson ($8.4k) vs. New York Mets – While the Mets are getting close to fully healthy on the offensive side, they’ve still been struggling to put up runs. They’ve also been K’ing a bunch. Over the past week they have a 28% K rate. Until they show consistently they are a productive offense, I think we can attack them.

Today we’ll attack them with Anderson who has been solid of late. Over the past 30 days he’s sporting a 3.24 xFIP with a 27% K rate. All signs point to him having a solid outing tonight. He’s not in the same ballpark as Degrom and Burnes, but he’s a whole lot cheaper and provides some upside tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Will Crowe – I’m going to continue playing the Brewers until FD raises their prices and everyone else decides to join the party. They are one of the hottest offenses in the game right now and tonight they get a match-up against a pitcher in Crowe who has been giving up a ton of hard contact.

In his last 18 innings pitched he’s given up 6 homers to go along with just an 8% swinging strike rate. Crowe’s been getting hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate so we can focus on the entire lineup.

The guys I’m focusing on tonight with Brewers will be Urias ($3k), Adames ($3.1k), Narvaez ($2.6k), and Peterson ($2.4k). Hiura ($3.2k) is also an interchangeable part in this stack. All have been extremely productive during this run the Brewers have been on. As a team they have 18 barrels over the past week in just 176 AB’s.

San Francisco Giants vs. Merrill Kelly – Yes, Kelly has been lights out the last 2 games. Prior to that though he had been brutal. With a match-up against the Giants today we should see Kelly come back down to earth. The Giants have been very strong against righties this year with a near .200 ISO and an OPS sitting at .758. Giants should throw out 5 lefties tonight.

In looking at Kelly’s pitch mix he’ll mostly throw a 91 MPH fastball and mix in his change-up. This is a combo that Giants lefties hit very well. My focus will be on Yastrzemski ($2.9k), Dickerson ($2.2k), and Crawford ($2.8k). They are all cheap and have ISO’s greater than .200 to Kelly’s pitch mix.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Antonio Senzatela – There’s weather risk in this game, but it’s Coors and I do want a piece of it tonight. Over the last month Senzatela has been giving up a ton of hard contact. It’s sitting close to 43%. This is something I’ll want to exploit tonight.

He’s been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher as the majority of the hard contact is coming from righties as they have a 48% hard hit rate against him this year. Cardinals have a predominantly right handed lineup so this lines up very well for them, and very poorly for Senzatela.

He throws his 94 MPH fastball more than 50% of the time. Carlson ($3.3k) and O’Neill ($3.8k) both have ISO’s greater than .300 against this pitch type. Plugging in Goldschmidt ($4.1k) and Arenado ($4.2k) may prove to be tough because of salary, but if I had to pick between the two, I’d side withArenado.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Between the day slate and the night slate we’re going to need to be prepared to closely monitor weather. There’s rain everywhere today and there are a handful of games that are both at risk of a delay and postponement.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, July 1

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Thursday, July 1 edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have five early games and the common theme today will be the threat of rain and thunderstorms as many ballparks will be in the path of storms amidst a nationwide heatwave!

After navigating through some horrendous pitching yesterday, I am happy to report today is loaded with top-tier arms so our builds will feel much more stable when anchoring to the arms at our disposal.

The early slate has a few select aces with Carlos Rodon, Jose Berrios and Sean Manaea all pitching in the later half of the slate and all of them are in games that are free from rain risk which is a massive plus.

Carlos Rodon ($10.2K) is the lone arm over $10K on this slate and we are getting him at a discount compared to his salary in recent starts despite the fact he had a 31% K rate on those outings with 8 K’s each. The strikeout stuff for Rodon has stayed consistent despite the pitching world seemingly crumbling around Major League Baseball with the crackdown on the sticky stuff.

While there have been countless examples of pitchers who have seen their spin rates drop drastically since the crackdown – there is nothing in Rodon’s pitch arsenal that has seen a material change as you can see from this view into Baseball Savant.

While the opposing line-up of Minnesota has some pop with Donaldson/Cruz, they also have three hitters in the heart of the order with 30%+ K rates against LHP with Larnach, Jeffers, and Sano – so the upside for Rodon remains and at a price discount relative to his market rate, I think he makes for an ideal SP1.

Sean Manaea ($9K) is another arm we get at a discount today, as he has been at $10K each of his last three starts so this 10% discount feels like something we should jump on especially at home versus the K happy Texas Rangers.

Manaea has always had a home/road split worth noting pitching in Oakland, where his HR/9 rate drops, his K rate ticks up and his batted ball profile actually shifts slighty to more fly balls which does not hurt him nearly as much in his home digs.

The K upside with Manaea comes from left-handed batters as he has a 30% rate since last year against LHB, a 10% increase on his right-handed numbers and while Texas may only have Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe hit from that side, the simple truth is the more lefties the better.

Let’s stay in Oakland for a second shall we? If we want a stack today that has no rain risk, the Athletics bats may be the way to go against RHP Dane Dunning.

There may not be a lot in the surface stats on Dunning to think we should attack him but when you dig deeper into his pitch type, boy oh boy – it starts to get interesting.

Dunning is a heavy sinker arm, throwing it well over 50% to hitters from both sides of the plate and this Oakland team is just LOADED with bats that hammer that pitch type.

From the left side of the plate, batters have really hit this pitch with some serious authority against Dunning, with left-handed batters this season having a 56% hard contact rate, just a 4% whiff rate and an average distance traveled of over 311 feet.

The Oakland LHB, like Matt Olson, Tony Kemp and Mitch Moreland all have .250+ ISO marks against that pitch type with Olson/Moreland bot with 330+ average distance marks. Unfortunately on DK you have to pick and choose one or the other but what I will say – I plan to have an Oakland 1B in that spot today!

The RHB on Oakland has similarly strong profiles as well with all of Matt Chapman (.290), Sean Murphy (.242) and Ramon Laureano (.235) all sporting big ISO numbers against this pitch type which really helps us mix and match and round out this stack!

With no rain risk here and winds blowing out to RF at 10 MPH, I think anchoring to an Oakland stack with bats from both sides that hit the sinker well, is a way to build safety without sacrificing upside on a dicey early weather slate!

Want to take this one step further – why not take in the White Sox game as well for our secondary stack against Jose Berrios? Yes, I know I mentioned Berrios as an ace level arm but take a peek at his splits – if I told you there was an arm tonight that has given up a .257 ISO and 46% hard contact rate to left-handed batters, would you not be interested?

The White Sox are projected to have five batters from the right side tonight – with some high-end batters like Grandal/Moncada but also some serious value with Brian Goodwin, Gavin Sheets and Luery Garcia all offering you sub $3K value to mix and match from the left side.

With the wind blowing out 10-15 MPH, and Berrios having a 1.6 HR/9 rate against LHB this year, I would use the White Sox as a secondary power stack and go home run hunting against Berrios!

Main Slate Breakdown

Switching gears to the 7 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate, we have similar rain risk with serious concerns in Washington and Colorado – so let’s outline a path with those games out of our initial player pool.

As Adam Strangis broke down in today’s Starting Rotation ($) – the clear path is to just rock with Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes and rather than wax poetic about deGOAT and Burnes elite K ability, I will just say Adam is right and this is the path I am going with – double aces and done.

Going with this build means we have just under $3.7K per batter and frankly, that does not seem like nearly as big of a challenge with how soft the pricing is on DraftKings for this Main Slate.

The one offense that jumps off the page to me tonight as significantly under-priced is the Houston Astros who head to play the Indians in Cleveland.

Now, I know I have been on JC Mejia as a cheap MLB DFS arm, but sometimes being able to dive into arms on previous slates, leads you to find weaknesses to attack on future slates and that is exactly what we have here.

Mejia has significant struggles with left-handed bats this year in limited sample size, surrendering a massive 55% hard contact rate and digging into the pitch types, I think we have a chance to attack this.

Mejia is a sinker ball arm, throwing it 50% to both sides of the plate and the left-handed batters on Houston profile extremely well against this pitch type.

Yordan Alvarez is the top bat here, with a massive .362 ISO and 54% HC rate against this pitch type while we get an elite punt catcher in Jason Castro ($2.2K) who has a .200 ISO and 55% HC rate against that pitch type.

The Astros by and large got a price drop with guys like Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley sitting below $4K on DraftKings and with them being the away team – we get nine innings of guaranteed at-bats here tonight.

The one right-handed batter that stands out is Carlos Correa as he has a .221 ISO and 45% HC rate against the splitter and allows you to round out a stack with a premium play at SS.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Today’s split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots approach is essentially the polar opposite of yesteray in that I think on both slates we need to anchor to double ace attacks and we can largely do so with under-priced premium stacking options.

The key for me today is to avoid the risk and that means the rain – if we can find builds early in the day in spots with no rain concerns to build around, it gives us a massive advantage as other players will be forced to react and scramble later as thunderstorms erupt.

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, June 30th

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Wednesday, June 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1410179600811008007

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Wednesday where we get a full day of baseball after a big night of wins last night at Win Daily Sports where one of our PGA Staff writers won big with a double ace build we outlined yesterday in our article! Congrats Isaiah on a huge night!

We start the day off with a 4 game Early Slate at 1 PM EST with Arizona/St. Louis and the games are spaced out every hour with the final game between Tampa and Washington, starting after 4 PM EST which will bring a unique challenge in that we likely won’t have all the line-ups before lock. I bring that up because when building your line-ups, specifically the batters, I would work to keep your player pool to games that start around the same time.

We know for day games, lineups get wonky, stars get rest, bench guys get starts – and so with that unpredictability comes chaos for MLB DFS lineups. I would either front load OR backload your bats so you either have known lineups before lock OR maximize your flexibility post lock by stacking the later games.

The absolute hardest part of this early slate is the pitching, with Milwaukee making the decision to push Corbin Burnes back to Thursday and we officially have no aces to pull from and honestly, there are barely any serviceable arms to utilize either.

Now on these small slates, I will always argue that playing strategy over “best plays” is the single best way to gain leverage in GPP’s and this slate is the perfect example of how we can employ that strategy.

Let’s see – there is no player in baseball right now hotter than Kyle Schwarber and on a small slate like this, my guess is he becomes the “must play” as folks rush to stack the Nationals against Michael Wacha.

So why not play Michael Wacha ($7.3K)?

If you look at Wacha’s splits this season, he has a strong 25.4% K rate against RHB versus just an 11.7% rate against LHB. Now again, you could look at this as a reason to play Schwarber OR realize that the Nationals line-up will have 5 of the 8 batters hitting from the right side plus the pitcher which seemingly gives you more paths to value for Wacha as leverage.

Wacha was impressive in his last start against the Red Sox, striking out 7 batters over 5 innings on his way to 23.5 DK points and his 17% SS rate is something we simply cannot overlook. In that game against Boston, Wacha threw his change-up nearly 30% of the time, a considerable uptick on his season-long marks, and his 43% SS rate on that pitch type is what got him the majority of his K upside.

If the Nationals are chalk (mostly due to Schwarber) and they run out a righty heavy line-up, Wacha could be the key to lapping the field in GPP’s today!

Taking this a step further – Marc Topkins confirmed that Drew Rasmussen will open for the Rays before going to Wacha. Why does this matter? Well if Rasmussen faces the top of the order with Soto-Schwarber-Bell – that means Wacha comes in to face the bottom of the order which is right-handed heavy. Honestly, I think this is a big boost to Wacha as a play!

What if I told you the best offense on the slate was actually on the other side of this game as we get to celebrate Jon Lester Day by using my favorite stack in MLB DFS against him – The Tampa Bay Rays!

We talk about this every 5 days with Mr. Regression himself but Lester is someone we can and should attack at will. With a .225 ISO to RHB this season, the splits are clear in how to attack him and the pitch data even more so!

If you are new to Picks and Pivots – let me break it down. For those of you who know, well you know. Lester throws a cutter as his primary pitch to RHB and the metrics are not kind – to the tune of a .571 ISO and 44% HC rate. Why does he keep throwing it? I do not know – but let’s keep attacking it!

Both Manuel Margot and Randy Arozarena have .330 ISO marks against that pitch type and Margot homered on that exact pitch type the last time they faced Lester in Tampa Bay. The Rays can get very right-handed heavy with Mike Brosseau and Yandy Diaz but you need to understand the pinch-hit risk that exists with them as the Rays can very quickly go L/R as they did this last night when the Nationals went to the pen.

I bring this up because this is a prime reason why we should not ignore the lefties from Tampa Bay in our stack. If Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe are starting against the lefty, then you know they are committed to using them and the pinch-hit risk for them becomes nearly zero later in the game because the right-handed batters started the game already.

Also – if we stack against Lester, we are expecting him to be out early in the game and as we saw in his last start against Miami, once he got blown up – it was a right-handed heavy Nationals bullpen that came in to mop up and that is where Meadows and Lowe could do serious low-owned damage.

If the Nats bats are chalk, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Rockies in Coors Field. You would think on a short slate they would be chalk but maybe they won’t be and all of a sudden stacking Rockies becomes – weirdly contrarian.

We know the deal with Pirates SP Chad Kuhl, as we attack and attack hard with left-handed batters due to his .230 ISO and 46% hard contact rate allowed.

His primary pitch against lefties – the slider, which he throws nearly 40% of the time, is a pitch that both Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon have .250+ ISO marks against. Again – if Schwarber/Soto types are the OF chalk – are we really going to get someone like Blackmon in Coors on a short slate at low ownership?

To summarize – PLAY STRATEGY OVER PLAYS on this early slate. If Kyle Schwarber is 90% owned and hits another HR, you tip your cap and move on. But listen, this is baseball and if you are telling me a high variance sport and a high variance power hitter is going to be chalk – what better way to get leverage and hope you get his 0-4 day and lap the field with the low-owned pivots. Plus it’s Lester Day – let’s ride!

Main Slate Breakdown

Opening up this Main Slate, we have similar high-octane offenses to build around but the difference is we actually have strong top-tier arms to anchor to. As Adam Strangis broke down in our Starting Rotation ($) today – there is a significant argument to simply live in this top tier tonight.

The question is – can you really afford to pay up when we have the Houston Astros bats against Matt Harvey (again) or the Blue Jays at home against a lefty in Justus Sheffield who has given up a .200 ISO and 51% hard contact rate to RHB.

So is there a path to stacking the big offenses with some cheap arms? I actually think the answer is yes.

Bailey Ober ($5.7K) is the first arm that jumps out to me today as we have been attacking the White Sox with right-handed pitching all year and this spot looks prime for upside.

Ober’s splits are significant thus far, with a 27.3% K rate to RHB versus just a 14.7% rate to LHB and with a White Sox line-up that is likely to have 4-5 RHB and has a 27% K rate against RHP this season, the path for K’s is clear for the Twins right-hander. Ober relies on his slider to generate a 33% whiff rate to RHB and there is no single hitter on this Chicago team with any higher than a .175 ISO or even a 70% contact rate against that pitch type.

The other punt arm to focus on is Jordan Holloway ($4.4K) who has been recalled to start for Miami against Philadelphia after getting stretched out in the minors. After being sent down in May, Holloway has made 4 starts in AAA through June, ramping up to his longest outing where he went 5.2 IP back on June 22nd with 87 pitches thrown.

Holloway’s DK game log is misleading since he was pitching out of the pen but his 2.55 ERA with 14 K’s in 17 IP and just a 30% HC rate allowed, gives us reason to think he can pay off this price tag normally reserved for openers/relievers.

Thus far at the big league level, Holloway has a 23% K rate and 52% GB rate to RHB and the Phillies are going to throw out a line-up tonight with 5-6 right-handed bats, including the pitcher.

Now, if you are going this route with any sort of punt arms – it is solely to pay up for the big bats and the focus in my mind simply has to be with the Astros and Blue Jays. On a slate where the top-end arms are good but not great (sorry but Chris Bassitt should never be the highest-priced arm on a slate) – I am more than happy to pay down for arms with K upside to stack the big bats and make some serious GPP waves!

The Blue Jays bats are not going to sneak up on anyone tonight but if you look at our Matchup Tool here at Win Daily Sports, you will see just how much red is there for Justus and the Mariners pen – lock and load!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Did you like our FREE Picks and Pivots MLB DFS Breakdown today? If so – grab our current promo running up to July 4th where you can get two months of All Access Gold Membership for just $44.44.

https://twitter.com/WinDailySports/status/1409917386250244103

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, June 29th

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Tuesday, June 29th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to a monster 15 game MLB DFS slate where we have tons of aces, stacks upon stacks of big bats in warm weather and a game in Coors Field so go ahead and buckle in because this one is going to take some time!

Let me start here because any time we get a slate this deep, I think it is worth repeating – you need to minimize your player pool or you are going to get WILDLY overwhelmed.

I have already read Adam’s Starting Rotation and Jared’s Aces and Bases and guess what – they are right and I nodded along to every play they outlined.

That’s the thing – there are a TON of good plays today, more than you are going to be able to play and if you are a single entry player like me, these slates can seem insane at times but if you anchor back to your core strategies, you will find a way through to strong builds.

So what is OUR core philosophy here in Picks and Pivots? Any time we can anchor to a double ace build with high strikeout arms, that is where we want to start and here today that is exactly where I want to start my path with both Brandon Woodruff and Robbie Ray.

Over the last month of action, there are only NINE qualified arms in baseball that have both a 30%+ K rate and a 30%+ CSW rate (called strikes plus whiff rates) – and four of them actually take the hill tonight with Woodruff, Ray, Lucas Giolito and Kevin Gausman.

Now take the same time frame and look at the bats in baseball and who is striking out a lot – over the last 30 days, no two teams strike out more than the Cubs (29.8%) and Mariners (27.3%) – who both just so happen to be facing Mr. Woodruff and Mr. Ray.

This is an instance where the recent performance AND the match-up align for ceiling games and when that happens, I want to find ways to simply anchor to that path.

Now, going for two arms that cost you around $11K on DraftKings each means we have to get creative with bats and finding stacks that offer high/low salary stacks is where I want to start.

Now, Adam already touched on the fact we have Shohei Ohtani in Yankee stadium and I think this is a spot that may allow us high/low stacking in an advantageous spot. James Taillon is an arm we have attacked all year long in the right spots – those spots being when he faced left-handed power because his .227 ISO and 50% fly ball mark are big-time red flags!

Now put Taillon in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in RF and you wonder why the metrics spike to a 58% fly-ball rate and a 2.6 HR/9 rate against lefties. So yeah Ohtani is the big bat – but how about the fact we have multiple $2K punts from the left side in Scott Schebler and Luis Rengifo that you can use to balance out the cost of someone like Ohtani while still attacking the same splits we want with the bigger Angels bats like Ohtani or Jared Walsh.

The other spot that stands out to me – well, it ain’t gonna surprise you – but it came out in my research on Taillon that there is another arm that has similar struggled against left-handed power – Joe Ross of the Washington Nationals. Guess who he faces today? Yep, the left-handed heavy Tampa Bay Rays.

If you look at all qualified starting pitchers this season, Ross ranks as one of the top 5 in all of baseball in terms of hard contact allowed to left-handed batters with a whopping 49.3% rate. Much like Taillon – take those marks into his home park and his 50%+ fly ball rate and 2+ HR/9 rate to LHB stands out.

Take it one step further and Ross, who throws his splitter nearly 40% of the time to LHB has to take on Austin Meadows – who jumps off the page with a .240 ISO and average distance of over 340 feet on that pitch type. Meadows is going deep tonight and we will get him under 5% owned as we always do. Keep fading – we won’t.

Much like with Ohtani and the Angels, we have punt options on the Rays side we can pair Meadows with – including $2K OF Kevin Kiermaier. Again, much like Schebler, this is a spot where you can take a pure punt you are attacking with the same splits and pair them with a high-dollar bat from the same team which helps you afford the big arms we want to anchor to.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a really strong MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate today and one that I think we need to stay disciplined on in our builds as casting our net too wide, could mean we over extend ourselves.

The key to me on this slate and a spot where I think we can help keep ourselves condensed in our process is to anchor to both aces in Woodruff/Ray tonight who get the perfect on paper upside match-up.

That will require value but as I outlined above, I think we have paths to that early and that is before we even get the 30 MLB teams confirmed lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/29

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

With today’s slate we have a little bit of everything. Some great pitching with solid match-ups and strong offenses facing some poor pitching.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($10.8k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Robbie Ray draws a fantastic match-up tonight with Mariners coming to Buffalo. Ray is one of my favorite GPP pitchers in the league right now. Every time out he has double digit K potential.

Over his past 30 day he’s been especially dominant with a 36% K rate and just a 2.58 xFIP. With Ray on the mound there’s always the potential for the occasional long ball as he’s given up 4 in his last 28 innings of work. That said, with the match-up tonight I’m not overly worried as the Mariners have really struggled this season. Against lefties they have a 27% K rate to go with a wOBA that is below .300.

What has me sold on Ray tonight is that the Marines really struggle against sliders. Outside of Crawford and Moore, the entire projected lineup tonight has a whiff rate over 40% to left handed sliders. This is a great spot for Ray tonight and I’m all in.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.4k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Another pitcher that draws an absolutely beautiful match-up is Brandon Woodruff. While he’s pricey, he’s facing a team that has struck out almost 36% of the time over the past week. That is significantly higher than any other team as the White Sox come in second at 29%.

Woodruff, like Ray, has been dominant over the past 30 days. His K rate is greater than 31% and his xFIP is sitting at 2.68. Peralta was able to strikeout 8 Cubs in just 6 innings of work. With Woodruff being a more efficient pitcher than Peralta, I have no doubt in my mind that a replication of last night’s outing is the floor for Woodruff. While I’m siding with Ray tonight due to the $600 savings, Woodruff is a very close second.

Jose Urquidy ($9.5k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Orioles put up a big number last night. They do that from time to time. Most of that was against a suspect bullpen and a pitcher a couple years past his prime. Tonight the Orioles will be facing Urquidy who has really turned things around over the past 30 days.

While his xFIP on the year is 4.54, over the past 30 days it has come down to 3.5. His last outing was one of his best of the year, going 7 innings with 6 K’s and no runs. Who was it against? This same Orioles team in a much better hitting environment.

While it’s always risky to use a pitcher facing a team just 5 days later, Urquidy’s pitch mix leads me to believe we should expect a similar outing. Urquidy mostly throws sliders to righties and it’s a pitch that the Orioles have not done well against. Look for Urquidy to continue his stretch of 40 point outings.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Cleveland Indians vs. Jose Urena – Urena is one of my favorite pitchers to attack as he’s really struggled this year, and even more so of late. Over the past 30 days his xFIP is sitting at 7.29 compared to 5.37 on the year. Nothing is working for him right now.

While he’s normally a groundball pitcher, he’s been giving up a lot more fly balls of late. In his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 4 homers. For a groundball pitcher, that’s quite a bit!

The three guys that really standout in this lineup that have excelled at hitting the sinker are Jose Ramirez ($3.9k), Eddie Rosario ($3.1k), and Bobby Bradley ($3.5k). All three have ISO’s over .230 and low whiff rates to the pitch. I’d recommend including Amed Rosario ($2.6k) to the stack as he’s cheap and hits near the top of the order.

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Santillan – So far Santillan has been able to skate by with limited damage. Regression is going to happen and I do believe it happens tonight against the Padres powerful lineup.

Here’s why I think regression is going to happen. In his first 13 innings of work Santillan has a BB/9 of 5.27, a FB rate of 51%, a LOB % of 95.7, and a hard hit rate of nearly 38%. So he’s walking guys, giving up a ton of fly balls, and getting hit hard. With metrics like that it’s only a matter of time.

Padres present a worst case scenario for him as they’ve been pretty good against righties. They have a .729 OPS and a wOBA of .318. We’re talking about a small sample size, but he’s been especially bad to lefties as they have a 50% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. Cronenworth ($3.3k), Hosmer ($2.7k), and Grisham ($2.7k) should highlight any Padres stack you roll out tonight. Tatis ($4.7K) is always in play too, just very expensive.

Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Love the A’s to put up a big number tonight. With Folty on the mound we know that at least 1 A’s player will hit a homer. It’s almost a given as Folty is giving up a homer once every 3 innings. That’s a pretty high rate, highest of any pitcher on the slate.

His match-up tonight against the A’s is not an easy one. The A’s on the year have been really good against righties. They’re hitting for power with a .174 ISO and an OPS of .726. Folty is giving up a ton of fly balls to lefties this year so I’m going to center my stacks around both Tony Kemp ($2.4k) and Matt Olson ($4.2k). Both guys profile extremely well against Folty. If Moreland ($2.5k) is in the lineup he too profiles very well tonight.

I didn’t write up the Angles but Ohtani ($4.3k) and Walsh ($3.4k) should both homer tonight against Taillon.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather tonight as there’s a chance of storms in most of the games on the east coast. This should be a fun slate though as we have both solid pitching in great match-up’s and really poor pitching that will be heavily exploited.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, June 28th

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Monday, June 28th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1409275198889660418

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a solid 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Monday, as we have strong top-end pitching, a clear top stack, and some potential lingering rain concerns in the Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox game that could impact how we attack tonight’s slate.

At first glance on this slate, there are two very clear over-arching themes – first, the Houston Astros are going to be heavy chalk with a 6+ IRT at home against the Orioles, and secondly, our pitching pool is incredibly thin and top-heavy.

As Adam laid out in Starting Rotation, there is a clear need to look up to Trevor Bauer & Freddy Peralta and Kenta Maeda looks like the default SP2 pairing against the White Sox.

Honestly, you can almost end the pitching pool right there and move on to the offenses.

Listen, we hit on some risky punts yesterday here in Picks and Pivots with Muller/Max (shown above) in the $4K range, but I am not going to force it today. The pitching pool today has far more landmines than options I want to actively roster and anytime that is the case, I would argue to let other’s make the mistake and we take the clear path to points.

The clear path in my mind is to go with Bauer OR Peralta and pair them with Maeda, which gives you the salary flexibility to anchor to the Astros stack.

The key then is how do you want the value stack(s) to make it all fit?

The Detroit Tigers against RHP Eli Morgan is an ideal way to not only get value but to do so by attacking an arm that checks all the boxes for pitching we want to attack. Morgan so far at the big league level has surrendered a 3.2 HR/9 rate, a 50% fly-ball rate and a 46% hard contact rate, and a bloated 10.32 ERA.

The Tigers bats are insanely cheap – as we have SIX bats at $2.6K or lower in the projected starting lineup and you get the added benefit of them being the road team and a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats. Literally, 4-9 in the projected lineup is priced near-minimum salary, I am not sure the last time I have seen that much value in a lineup, especially against a pitcher that has struggled this much!

Now, you did not come here JUST for the clear path – you come to Picks and Pivots for the off-the-wall ideas and while this slate largely seems like one to play straight, we have to find ways to be different.

On some slates, like yesterday, pitching is where we pivot- today though, that is NOT the case, my pitchers are ONLY Bauer, Peralta, and Maeda – period. stop. The one thing to mention – this could become a two-horse pitcher pool real quickly if Maeda is rained out as his game is the clear weather concern. Now all of a sudden you are looking at a double ace approach and my recommendation today – build lineups this way just so you have a back-up plan if/when Maeda is rained out so you do not have to scramble later.

https://twitter.com/DFSMLBWeather/status/1409474995684843520

So if we are going to play popular arms, can we pivot off the popular stack with the Astros? Listen, the spot is great no doubt but baseball hitting is the most variant aspect of the sport and so what if we simply find another strong offense to attack?

My favorite pivot stack tonight is the Kansas City Royals against RHP Garrett Richards who has become one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball since the crackdown on sticky stuff has changed the course of the season.

Over his last three starts, Richards has only gone 11 innings, with 21 hits, 15 runs, a 54% hard contact rate and just an 8% swinging strike rate.

After giving up 5 runs and 2 HR’s in just 1.2 innings his last start versus the Rays, he vented to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, that he is essentially being asked to change how he pitches on the fly and the results have been – well, terrible.

https://twitter.com/MattWi77iams/status/1407855623379771395

Richards inability to get any control on his curveball has turned him into a fastball only arm and the results have shown – with 47, 55 and 65 percent hard contact rates trending over the last three games.

I think this is a spot we go all-in on Kansas City in GPP’s because the match-up simply screams upside in Fenway Park where it is hot, humid and the wind is blowing out at 15 MPH.

The Royals are going to go totally ignored, largely because of pricing – Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield and Carlos Santana as an example will cost you $15.2K on DraftKings – that kind of average salary most are going to reserve for the big Astros bats. Yesterday, when the Blue Jays were the chalky stack, we saw the Royals are sub 5% ownership against Jordan Lyles, and today, I think we could see similar ownership as everyone flocks to the Astros 6+ IRT.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is a fascinating 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate because the player pool, specifically on the pitching side is SO condensed. If Kenta Maeda is ultimately rained out – you are looking at double ace type builds with Peralta/Bauer which is where the Tigers value will be key to unlocking the big bats we want.

Make no mistake the big bats are the selling point on this slate and while the Astros will be cash game staples, the Royals I think are where we make GPP headway against a pitcher that is flat our broken right now.

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Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Early Slate Breakdown

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Early Slate Breakdown

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Early Slate Breakdown

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

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