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Chris Kirk

PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks returns for the Honda Classic at PGA National to help find you some great picks and winning teams this week.

Course Notes:

Weaker field of 150 golfers (only three of OWGR top 20 playing)
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
2020 winner: Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes (-5)
The course: PGA National (Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL; Tom Fazio design)
- Par 71 (7,125 yards)
- Water everywhere (again) – in play on 15 holes; just two Par 5 holes
- Scoring is tough, so course management and making pars important
- Larger, more receptive Bermudagrass greens
- Wind will blow hard on Thursday, keep any eye on tee times
- Correlative courses include TPC Sawgrass & Scottsdale, Quail Hollow
Already a bunch of WDs including: Doc Redman (positive COVID test) and Scott Piercy (contact tracing), Gary Woodland (contact tracing), Sam Burns (undisclosed)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring,

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Sungjae Im (DK $11,000) – Since his T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions – a no-cut event – Im hasn’t placed better than T12 at the AMEX, though he’s made every cut and hasn’t necessarily hurt you. This week, he’s the top-priced golfer in a thin field and the defending champion — but he’s probably not the best option in cash games if you’re trying to build a balanced lineup. I won’t be overweight on the field, but I’ll have a few shares in GPPs based strictly on his ability to avoid bogeys and get off the tee well. The SG:APP and SG:ARG numbers don’t give me enough confidence to go all-in, even with the shortage of “elite talent in the top tier.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,800) – On Monday, Berger was the betting favorite and recently cited a rib injury following his T9 performance at the Players. He’s supposed to do a pre-tourney press conference, so we should have a better idea of how the ribs are feeling the day before lock. For now, I’m downgrading him slightly; he actually said he was surprised he played four full rounds dealing with the issue. Joel, Michael and Sia discussed Berger on the breakdown, but the fact that he played through the injury last week – and he’s second overall on my model – makes me want to use him in GPPs if he’s good to go. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Berger has withdrawn from the Honda Classic and has been replaced by Rhein Gibson. Get him out of all your lineups and pivot to Niemann, Westwood or value. Incidentally, because the winds are going to blow so hard this week, it’s not a bad idea to leave some money on the table in a few lineups in large-field GPPs — since we could see the winning lineup not include any of the players over $9,500, and sneak a couple of serious value plays in the top 5.

Joaquin Niemann DK $10,400) – Our process of elimination is being aided by some early WDs and glaring red flags with a few of the other “elite” golfers this week, so forgive me for arriving at Joaquin Niemann chalk and feeling a bit uninspired. He’s viable in all formats, he’s sixth overall on my model and he’s 11/11 on cuts since the start of October. So what’s the downside? We’ll have to keep an eye on ownership for our GPP exposure, but I’m starting to feel like he’s one of the safer plays on the board.

Russell Henley (DK $9,800) – Henley might be the best cash game play of the top group when price, course history and model are all considered, and I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs as well, as he’s No. 1 overall on my model and his ownership might be more depressed than it would have been had he made the cut last week and had a finish higher than T11 in his last eight starts. He’s continually improve his finish in this event since 2016, and he won here in 2014. Henley will be the starting point for about 30-40 percent of my GPPs, and he’s shaping up to be an anchor on my single-entry squad.

Also consider: Lee Westwood, Adam Scott (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Shane Lowry (DK $9,200) – If the wind starts blowing and folks are having a tough time making pars, I’m all the more interested in a guy like Lowry, who’s proven to be a trustworthy golfer even when conditions are dire. He’s in good form and his history at the Honda Classic (through three tries) yielded a T21 in his last go-round. The weaker field, the difficulty of the venue and his increased confidence both here and on correlative and other Florida courses is a combination for prospective success this week.

Cameron Tringale (DK $9,100) – Tringale actually described the Champion course at PGA national himself as a “second-shot golf course” that plays tough because of the wind, the run-offs and the myriad hazards that abound. Tringale has always been decent around the greens and has his most difficulty on correlative courses getting off the tee (he ranks 131st in the field in SG: OTT when adjusted for this course and the others mentioned in the bullets). While it feels weird playing over $9K for Tringale, but he’s No. 18 in my model and if he can keep it in the fairways here, he’ll be in good shape to contend on Sunday.

Chris Kirk (DK $9,000) – In his last two events, Kirk has waited until day 4 to shoot his worst round of the tournament, which may not bode well for his confidence heading into a difficult PGA National course. If he’s anywhere near 15% or more in GPPs, I’ll steer clear, but you have to consider a guy whose ball striking has been this good lately. He’s No. 15 in my model overall and the only thing that’s really held him back form better finishes in his last few tourneys has been his putting.

Brendan Steele (DK $8,700) – This tour grinder has made seven consecutive cuts heading into the Honda this week. Aside from a MC in 2019, Steele’s course history is more than solid (8-for-9 with top 15s in four of last five; 36-hole leader before a T4 last year), and he’s popping (fourth overall) on my model this week. I’m already leaning his way in single-entry and could have big shares across the board in all formats. As a bonus, we’ve seen Steele navigate high winds well before, and Sia likes him this week too, so there are two more reasons to keep him in our builds.

Matt Wallace (DK $8,500) – Wallace is another player who plays well in these types of conditions, and he has one of those names that Sia really likes for its simplicity and understated, boring inflection. Because it doesn’t stand out like Wallace himself, we could see ownership lower than what it should be this week. For that reason, and the important detail that he’s a longshot who just barely missed the cut here last year, we don’t need high ownership to stay ahead of the field. He’s definitely getting mixed into my GPPs (20-max), but I won’t have more than 10 percent shares.

Also consider: Talor Gooch, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Keegan Bradley (GPP), Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter, Wyndham Clark (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Russell Knox, Erik van Rooyen

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

K.H. Lee (DK $7,500) – Lee missed the cut at Bay Hill and finished a ho-hum T41 last week at the Players, but I’m intrigued by the correlation between success here and at TPC Scottsdale – where he finished T2 in February. The South Korean sensation is adept at avoiding bogeys and is 25th overall in my model this week – making him a solid value play. Because of the wind, I’m looking at tee times and favoring the early Thursday times a bit, so Lee takes a bit of a hit because of that, but I’m still interested.

Luke List (DK $7,500) – He’s let me down a few times with missed cuts, but he can really get off the tee well and that usually bodes well for success at this event, where he finished solo second (between winner JT and Alex Noren) in 2018. Add to that course history another Top 10 and a couple missed cuts and underwhelming performances, and you’ve got a golfer to use in GPPs and stay a bit ahead of the field in ownership.

James Hahn (DK $7,300) – Hahn hasn’t played the Honda Classic in a while, but he’s tied with Lee Westwood for eighth overall in my model, he’s sprinkled three Top 15s in his last 10 tournaments, and his solo 10th place finish at the TPC course Waste Management gives me some confidence in his ability to do well here at this correlated PGA course in South Florida. He’ll be low-owned and makes for a prime target in GPPs.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore has played here just once, but he made the cut, and he’s finished in the Top 35 in his last two tournaments after three straight MCs to start out 2021. He’s No. 14 overall on my model this week and he’s been playing steady enough golf to spike a Top 10 or 15 finish here, which works for me in all formats.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – His proximity stats are second in the field (Vaughn Taylor is actually first and Russell Henley is third), and he’s been off a bit this year with a bunch of missed cuts mixed with a few decent performances. His putting and ARG numbers have bene bad, but if he can find a little magic on the short stuff, he could pay off handsomely in GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,000) – I really like Glover this week in GPPs given his extensive course history, but I’ve been known to go a little overboard because of the upside he offers at such a cheap price point. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Mayakoba, but there have bene some bright spots, including a 63 in round two of the Waste Management Open and some steady golf last week (in rounds 2-4) despite difficult conditions. His ability to avoid the big number could come in handy this week.

Jim Furyk (DK $6,900) – Full disclosure: I’ll probably have Furyk on way too many teams this week given the venue, the fact that he’s fifth in my model (and #1 in the field in Bogey Avoidance), and the crucial factor that less-than-driver is plenty on a lot of these Par 4s. The veteran golfer (and shoo-in 2021 HOFer) is one of the best ball strikers the game has ever known, and he’s still got it going at over 50 years of age.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley (No. 20 overall on my model) typically struggles around the greens, but he likes this putting surface and if he can avoid some of the testy run-offs and navigate the ball well T2G, I think he could be in play in GPPs. He’s in the price range where you don’t need to go overboard or even use him in single-entry, but I’m fine with 10-15% ownership in GPPs if you want some extra leverage for a high-upside guy with two Top 25s at this event.

More value golfers to consider: Patton Kizzire (GPP), Zach Johnson, Henrik Norlander (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Harry Higgs (GPP), Adam Long, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, John Huh (GPP), Wes Bryan, Charl Schwartzel, Jason Dufner

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Pat Perez (DK $6,500) – It’s easy to root for Perez, who’s No. 10 on my overall model this week but missed the cut last week after 77-69 in the opening two rounds. I’m focused on the 69 – especially since the last two times he missed the cut he bounced back with a finish in the top 36. That’s not a bad trend for a golfer in this price range, and a guy who doesn’t make a lot of big numbers and has the game to put together some low rounds.

Kramer Hickok (DK $6,400) – He performed well in high winds at the Bermuda, and he made the cut last week at the Players after getting in as an alternate with Brooks Koepka’s withdrawal. He’s No. 59 overall on my model, but he’s got some Top 25 upside this week if you need a cheap golfer to mix into 1-2 of your 20max GPPs.

UPDATE: Kramer Hickok has withdrawn his name from the field, and will be replaced by Brandon Hagy, who I have no interest in. Hickok did not cite a reason for his WD.

Kelly Kraft (DK $6,000) – Normally I don’t include players this far down in my model (he’s No. 124 this week), but Kraft finished T8 here in 2018 and he’s known for being a better player in high winds, which could come into play right off the bat this week. He’s a 1/20 max play, but he’s minimum salary and if your five golfers in a GPP build gets you there and you need a guy that’s $6K, I’d pick Kraft.

Additional punts: Stewart Cink, Vaughn Taylor (GPP), Scott Stallings, Sam Ryder, Graeme McDowell, Tyler Duncan (GPP), Chase Seifert (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Enormous, elite field of 154 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
No 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)
The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye design
- Par 72 (7,189 yards)
- Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf course
- Plays longer in March than it did in May
- Bermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialis
- Look for big scoring spreads like at Bay Hill
- Wind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill
6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.

Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.

Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.

Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.

More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie Hughes

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.

Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.

Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
- Par 72 (7,466 yards)
- Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
- Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
- Pressure golf at its most demanding
- Bermuda greens and fairways
Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am)

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 156 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)
The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
- PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041
- Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and Scottsdale
- No third course, no amateurs this year
- Poa annua greens
- Iron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens
- 6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger field
- Wind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)
Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.

Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.

Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.

Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.

Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.

Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick Taylor

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.

Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.

More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin Chappell

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.

Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.

Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Mayakoba Golf Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Weaker field of 132 golfers, but JT and Koepka are here!
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
Last year: 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
The course: El Camaleon Golf Club (Playa del Carmen, Mexico)
- Par 71 (approx. 7,100 yards)
- Resort course with combined landscapes: Mangrove jungles, limestone canals and oceanfront
- Seashore Paspalum greens and fairways
- Plenty of scoring chances for good approaches
- Shorter, more accurate hitters could have success
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, Fairways Gained, GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,400) – He’s going to be hard to fade in GPPs, but that may be the way to get some leverage. In lineups where I fade him, I’ll grab some shares of Brooks Koepka.

Harris English (DK $10,100) – English is viable in all formats and I’ll run a few lineups with just him among the top tier and go balanced the rest of the way with in the $7-9K range. If I don’t do that with him, I’ll try the same with Hovland or Fowler.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,900) – The price is obscene, especially for a guy that doesn’t post a lot of Top 5 finishes, but he’s one of the best players in the field and he’s had a pretty good year. The Mexico native has also made three straight cuts here with two Top 10s.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,500) – He’s rocking three Top 15s among his last four tournaments, and the price is reasonable for the field. He’s got a chance at winning here after missed cuts in his first two tries at the Mayakoba.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Rickie Fowler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,200) – Zalatoris didn’t tee it up in November, but he had three top 10s in his first four starts this season and an amazing 13 top 20 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in the calendar year. The 35-1 odds to win aren’t bad for an outright bet, either.

Corey Conners (DK $9,000) – The Canadian is threatening to join the Top 50 in the world, and despite some spotty finishes here, he’s a horse for this course – as everything should line up for him to break through. If you’re looking for a 25-1 guy to back, Conners might be your guy.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,900) – Ortiz will be super popular this week, because he’s playing in his native Mexico (like Ancer), he just won in Houston despite a relatively inconsistent 2020, and he finished second here last year. He’s not my favorite play in GPPs if his ownership gets over 15%, but I’ll have some shares.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Grillo’s ball striking T2G is excellent, and he’s a much better putter these days as well – a combo that makes me want to jump aboard again at this all-too-fair price in the mid-range. Add in that he’s 4-for-4 with three top 15s – and a ridiculous scoring average of 68.13 at Mayakoba – and he’s one of my favorite plays (and bets at 60-1) to win.

Charles Howell (DK $8,100) – Howell’s days of routine Top 10 finishes may be over, but he’s had success at the Mayakoba and his T3 at the 3M shows he can still get it done T2G. Not my favorite play, but steady enough to warrant usage in a few GPPs.

Joel Dahmen (DK $8,000) – Dahmen seems to thrive on resort courses and posted a 61 in day two the RSM Classic (on the Seaside course), so he’s very capable of firing some low rounds. If he can keep it on the fairway, he can dial in a Top 15 finish.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,000) – Kizzire has been building on some serious momentum, and when he’s hitting fairways, he’s a dangerous golfer. He’s won here, he’s trending in the right direction and I love him at this relatively benign price point. Some experts actually like him to win this week, so he’ll be in most of my GPP builds, including single-entry.

Adam Long (DK $7,800) – Perhaps incongruously with his last name, Long isn’t a bomber, but he’s a prototypical second shot golfer with plenty of firepower in his iron play and a putter that can get things done. The T11 in Houston could give him some confidence heading into the last PGA calendar event of 2020.

Also consider: Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Todd, Alex Noren, Harold Varner (GPP), Scott Piercy, Russell Knox, Chez Reavie (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

John Huh (DK $7,400) – Huh won here in 2012 and has made the cut in all three of his events since returning from the COVID-19 layoff. The second-shot golfer finished T12 at the RSM after a sizzling weekend that saw him post 66-65, and his good memories at Mayakoba should make him a solid play this week.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,400) – A 24-year-old birdie maker who may not have the chops to win just yet, Ghim is certainly ready to start cracking some Top 10s and capitalizing on the low individual rounds that have helped him to two Top 15s in his last four starts.

Peter Malnati (DK $7,300) – He’s a GPP-only player because he hasn’t played well at this venue recently, but he’s got Top 25 upside and the game to succeed if he can keep making those birdies.

Pat Perez (DK $7,300) – The course history (three tops tens – including a win in 2016 – in his last four years here) is hard to ignore, but so is the form, which hasn’t been great. I like Perez this week for GPPs, though he’s ultimately a somewhat risky play for cash, even at a discount.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,100) – I’m going back to the well (which ran dry for me at both the Masters and RSM) and hoping Hadwin can finally spike a top finish at a second-shot course that he likes (two T10 finishes in his last two tries).

More value golfers to consider: Chris Kirk, Kevin Streelman (GPP), Denny McCarthy, Kyle Stanley, Vaughn Taylor, Brice Garnett, Max Homa (GPP), Xinjun Zhang (GPP), Robby Shelton (GPP), Ryan Armour

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I’m drawn to Burgoon because he finished T2 at the RSM and he’s made the cut in two of his three starts here at El Camaleon. He’s a GPP-only play but form and venue mean I’ll have some shares if I need a cheap golfer to fill out a tourney lineup.

Camron Percy (DK $6,400) – Percy digs tropical resort venues and he’s a solid performer on approach shots, so this price probably reflects his recent MC at the RSM, not necessarily his projected finish here. Take advantage, because there’s not a lot to look at under $6,500 this week.

Additional punts: Sung Kang, Rob Oppenheim, Kelly Kraft, Aaron Baddeley

3 years ago 0 comment

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PGA DFS Picks: Workday Charity Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Workday Charity Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS DraftKings pricing is a little soft this week, so it’s pretty easy to put together some stacked teams. Make sure to check out WinDailySports.com for more FREE content, and hop in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with our pros!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Fulltournament field of 156 golfers, with some bigger names than last week
Firstof two consecutive events being played at Muirfield Village, along with nextweek’s Memorial
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play theweekend
Thecourse: Muirfield Village
7,456 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design
Bentgrass Greens
A little longer than last time(especially Par 3s and Par 4s), but with slower greens than next week’s event
Wider fairways could help some longerhitters
Firestone CC and TPC Sawgrass have somewinner correlation
BrysonDeChambeau (2018 Memorial winner) NOT in the field
Defending champ: Patrick Cantlay (2019 Memorial: -19)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach;Par 4s Gained (450-500), GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves, Proximity (150-175),SG: Around the Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,100) – Hopefully the week off did him some good, but the MC at the Travelers looms large for a guy this expensive. A risk-reward play in all formats, it truly depends on how much risk you can handle.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,900) – Rahm has the all-around game to make it work here – but he’ll have to limit his desire to overpower the course and take his shots from the fairway – not the long stuff.

Patrick Cantlay (DK 10,600) – He’s the defending champ at the Memorial and thus will be popular – especially coming off a T11 at the Travelers. I’ll try to be ahead of the field, even if that’s a tall order.

Brooks Koepka (DK $10,400) – One of the best GPP plays in the field, he’s always entertaining, even if it’s just taking jabs at Beefy Bryson. Koepka is definitely heating up and this could be the week he flourishes around the greens and notches a win.

Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – Four straight Top 25s and only three scores in his last 12 rounds in the 70s – he’s a solid cash game option at the bottom of the first tier.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele,Justin Rose (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,200) – Mr. Consistency squeaked by at the Heritage but saw his made cut streak end at the Travelers. With his iron play, the now under-the-radar Morikawa is a near lock to start another one this week.

Rickie Fowler (DK $9,000) – The price continues to remain affordable, but Rickie seems to have some stuff figured out (T12 last week) as he heads into a course where he has a couple of Top 10 finishes and a T14 last season.

Marc Leishman (DK $8,700) – Tops in the field for SG:APP, when Leishman gets hot with the putter, he can post obnoxiously low scores – and he has a good record at Muirfield. The inactivity and poor play since resuming tournament play is a concern, but I’ll trust the models and the course history.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,200) – The Canadian is coming off a solid performance in Detroit and is another low-risk/solid irons/good scrambler combo player who could adorn the leaderboard come Sunday, Hadwin is worth a look in all formats.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – He burned me by missing the cut at the Travelers but my crush on his short game and iron play refuses to yield. The Englishman and former U.S. Amatgeur champ still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close – and he’ll be a staple in my GPPs builds at this price.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,800) – I’m throwing out the first-round 79 in Detroit and focusing on the 65 he fired in round 2. The course fits his strengths and the combination of recency bias and value makes him a prime target for me.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,700) – The stat models love Joel and he hasn’t missed a cut since January 30 at the Waste Management Open – a stretch that includes six Top 20s in nine starts.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth, JoaquinNiemann, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,500) – One of the best kept secrets in DFS, McNealy should garner more popularity this week following a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage, where he posted 21 birdies to just four bogey and a DBB. The kid can play.

Mark Hubbard (DK $7,400) – Hubbard keeps improving his form and establishing himself as a solid DFS option, but the price hasn’t caught up yet. Bogey avoidance will be a key stat for him this week.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – The MC at the Travelers was a letdown but Tringale remains a modest value option with upside and consistency making cuts (12/14 in 2020). If he can block out what the villagers are saying about his clothes, he should be okay.

Max Homa (DK $7,100) – Homa missed the cut at the Travelers, but he’s a good fit here with his ball striking and ability to scramble. Great value play for GPPs, as I believe he’s still massively underpriced.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,100) – Perhaps my favorite overall play this week, Cauley has the necessary chops around the green and is a solid ball-striker who’s popping in the stat models. I might go a little overboard considering the WD at the Travelers was due to Denny McCarthy testing positive, and not because of his play.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,100) – Keegan’s biggest problem is his nerves, but he played well last week and should be comfortable here in Muirfield Village with the greens running a little slower than usual. An ideal large-field GPP play.

Sam Burns (DK $6,900) – Burns is a big risk, but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays and he’s starting to prove he belongs. I’ll be ahead of the field even if he gets popular.

Adam Long (DK $6,600) – If Long can keep it in the fairway, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upside. The ultimate risk-reward GPP value play.

More value golfers forGPPs: Harold Varner, Rory Sabbatini, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, Tom Hoge, SebastianMunoz, Seung-Yul Noh

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,500) – There’s not a lot of upside once you get this cheap, but Norlander sticks out like a sore thumb with his recent finishes compared to his price. I’ll have plenty of shares and don’t mind a $5 or $10 win bet at 250-1.

Brandon Wu (DK $6,500) – He tested positive for COVID-19 last week but apparently has jumped through the necessary hoops to get in the field this week. He’s 4/4 making cuts in 2020, though he hasn’t played a tourney since the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February.

Peter Malnati (DK $6,000) – He finished 17th at the Memorial last year and is coming off a MC after a disappointing second round 74 (following an opening round 66). For $6K, you can’t have it all, but there is some upside.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 132 golfers
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 yards
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
The cut has been between Even Par and +2 the past six years
Medium course difficulty (24/48 in 2019)
Bermuda greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4s: 450-500, SG: Around the Green, Approach, Proximity to Hole, SG: Putting, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $12,100) – Rahm went to Arizona State and just finished second at Torrey Pines. He’s 4-for-4 at the event and his worst finish is a T16. He’s the betting favorite at 6-1, a lock-in cash game and I’ll have him in about 40-50 percent of my GPPs.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,900) – Always in the mix, Thomaslost some momentum when he missed the cut at the Sony, but I’m willing to throwthat performance out because of the brutal conditions. He’s also had somestruggles at this event, so maybe we get a break on his ownership? His eliteball-striking makes him a fine GPP play.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,500, FD $11,500) – Fowler is the defendingchamp and has finished 1-11-4-2 in his last four tries. He should contend againif he can right the ship after his MC in San Diego and get his putter going.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,100, FD $11,300) – Matsuyama has won here twice (2016 and 2017), finishing 15^th here last season. He checks all the boxes in my models and is actually a bit of a bargain considering his course history.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – We know how good his putter is, and with the form decent and 4/4 on his last four cuts here, he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

Branden Grace (DK $8,700, FD $10,200) – In his first appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he finished solo second place, and there are no major weaknesses that should have him in big trouble here. A worthy play in all formats.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) – Hovland checks all the boxes except around the green, and I think folks have forgotten about him a bit. He’s long enough and straight enough off the tee to employ either strategy, and he ranks well in SG: Approach. As you can see in the graphic below, he’s showing up in the models put together by Win Daily’s Patrick Waters too. I’ll have heavy GPP ownership this week.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) –.Another player who’s popping on my models, Moore’s yet to break through with a Top 10 here but is priced well and is an excellent ball striker. A risk-reward GPP mid-range value play.

Byeong Hun An (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – An is similar to Moore in that he’s a good ball striker who gets held back by his putter. This is a good venue to help rectify that and he’s 3-for-3 here so far.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) – Despite missing the cut here last season, Steele loves the venue and has three Top 20 finishes, including a solo third in 2018.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Chez Reavie, Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – A proven veteran with solid course history and an affordable price tag.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – I’m a Grillo fan and he’s 4-for-4 here. If he can get the putter blazing, who knows?

Martin Laird (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Laird will see pretty high ownership because of his amazing course history, so we might steer clear in large-field GPPs to differentiate.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,900, FD $8,000) – He’s played well here the last two years with a 5th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finishes in 2019, and he’s showing up in my models along with an affordable price.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – When Stuard goes flag hunting, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upsides. He’s super-cheap and looks like a good fit with the course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Beau Hossler, Max Homa, DennyMcCarthy, Danny Lee, Brian Gay, Chris Kirk

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4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open in Hawaii

Pick Management 4 years ago

written by Pick Management

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open in Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Golf Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 144 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Played at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii: 7,044 yards, par 70
Tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs, and bunkers – with an emphasis on accuracy, clubbing down and previous course knowledge
Bermuda turf and greens
Windy conditions expected
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 Scoring; Less-than-Driver, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $12,000, FD $12,300) – After JT’s latestwin in a playoff late Sunday at Kapalua, he’s listed as theVegas favorite at 9-2. Itwas a weird finish but he should contend again this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100, FD $11,500) – Webb is now oneof the most consistent golfers on Tour and he’s an excellent fit for this track,where he finished fourth in 2018. I’ll have shares alongside Thomas.

Matt Kuchar (DK $9,900, FD $11,100) – Kuchar won here last year and also at El Camaleon in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018 – an event that features a correlative coastal course with a similar feel. He’s a solid cash gameplay.

Charles Howell III (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Howell has a good history here and as a solid ball striker excels in many of our focus stat categories. He’s finished in the Top 15 three of his last four times here and is 5/5 on cuts since 2015.

Also consider: Patrick Reed (All formats), Collin Morikawa & AbrahamAncer (GPP only)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Corey Conners (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – He finished tied for third here last year after a T39 in his debut, and I’ll be hammering him into a big chunk of my GPPs. The upside is there and he’s a good bet to make the weekend. I love him in all formats this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,400, FD $10,000) – He’s had a nice run here, finishing T3, T18, T8 in his last three tries. A near-lock to make the cut and a solid bet for a Top 25. It should be a cash game staple and GPP plug-n-play.

J.T. Poston (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Poston had a solid week playing in tough competition, and he’s going to be popular given his recent form and the fit at this layout. He’s a fine play in all formats this week – just keep an eye on his ownership in tournaments.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,900, FD $9,700) – Don’t forget about Munoz. I liked him last week and he’s a sneaky play again here – even after his T10 finish last year at this venue

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,600, FD $9,300) – I can’t give up on Grillo, who’s struggled with the flat stick but can be a little more aggressive here and is an elite ball-striker with loads of GPP upside.

Also consider: Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner,Brian Stuard, Rory Sabbatini

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Brian Gay (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Gayhad a breakthrough in 2018 and a solid 2019, and he looks to get the ballrolling with another Top 25 here – something he accomplished in 2017 and 2019at Waialae. His MC at the RSM could keep folks off, and he finished T14 at theMayakoba.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – Kizzire’s recent form is trash, but Hawaii has treated him well the past few years. He’s an under-the-radar play who might just be the course horse we need to fit ion some studs.

Talor Gooch (DK $6,800, FD $8,200) – He’s GPP only as a value play with some upside, since he checks some of the key boxes, but not a guy who’s cash-viable.

Jimmy Walker (DK $6,800, FD $8,500) – It’s been a while since we’ve heard Walker discussed, but he’s a 2x winner here and this type, of course, is his bag, baby! He made the cut here last year after two misses in 2017 and 2018.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200, FD $7,100) – Old Man Kelly is super cheap and he’s a former winner with three top 15s here over the past five years. Dude loves this course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk, DanielBerger, Keegan Bradley, Scott Piercy, Harry Higgs

The PGA DFS Fades:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – He hasn’t played well at this venue, which is a change from last week’s brainless fade of Xander Schauffele (At least I take some chances with my fades). Matsuyama played well in October but he’s a little too pricey for me given his track record in Hawaii.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,400, FD $10,800) – I expect him to be popular but I’m not ready to go overboard just yet. Niemann is a first-timer here and I prefer some of the guys who are a little cheaper.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (leaving $$$):

JustinThomas ($11,200)

AbrahamAncer ($9,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

BrianGay ($7,200)

ScottPiercy ($7,100)

JerryKelly ($6,200)

($400 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

WebbSimpson ($11,100)

CoreyConners ($8,900)

ChezReavie ($8,400)

EmilianoGrillo ($7,600)

KyleStanley ($7,000)

PattonKizzire ($6,900)

($100 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

JustinThomas ($12,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

SebastianMunoz ($7,900)

RorySabbatini ($7,600)

KeeganBradley ($7,200)

ChrisKirk ($6,700)

($100 left)

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4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

Brandon C. Williams 4 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re fishing for some finecatches at the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia!

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PGADFS Course Notes:

It’s a full field with 156 golfers playing the Seaside Course and Plantation Course over the first two rounds
Cut: Top 65 and ties will play the weekend, making it difficult to get 6-of-6 golfers through the cutline
The first two rounds will be played at Seaside and Plantation courses at Sea Island Golf Club.
The Seaside Course is a Par 70 and 7,055 yards (Bermuda grass)
The Plantation Course is a Par 72 and 7,060 yards (Bermuda grass)
Previous winners: Charles Howell III (defending champion), Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Kisner, Robert Streb, Chris Kirk, Tommy Gainey, Ben Crane, Heath Slocum
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Par 4 Scoring, SG: Putting

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,600, FD $11,800) – Simpson finished third here last year and loves the venue. He’s the tourney favorite and my pick for winning the whole thing.

Kevin Kisner (DK $9,800, FD$11,000) – Kisner is the tournament’s all-timeearnings leader with a win here in 2015 among four top-10s in the five times he’splayed here. I’ll be loading up in all formats.

Charles Howell, III (DK $10,400, FD $11,400) – Howell is defending his title and had a top 10 in 2015. He’s worth spending up for and checks all the boxes at this venue.

Billy Horschel (DK $11,000, FD $11,600) – He played here once and finished second in a playoff. I know we faded him last week and he finished T8, and I won’t make that same mistake again.

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – Kucharfinished in the top 15 last week and has racked up five top-25s at RSM. He should contend at this Bermudavenue – where he’s a resident – and is a solid bet to make the cut despitemissing in 2016.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,200, FD $10,800) – Schefflerdoesn’t have any experience here, but that hasn’t mattered much here. Therookie is 6-for-6 with two top-10s and another pair of top-20s. He finished T18at Mayakoba last week.

Also consider: Harris English, Aaron Wise, Adam Hadwin, ZachJohnson

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Austin Cook (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – Cook won here in 2017 and finished T11 here last year with Dominic Bozzelli. He’s got a couple of Top 20s this season mixed in with some MCs. Worth a look in GPPs.

Denny McCarthy (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – He checks a very important box in our focus stats – Birdie-or-Better % – and his talents might not get noticed in this large field. A solid off-the-radar play.

Brian Gay (DK $8,800, FD $10,000) – He has a good feel for the course and its small greens, and he’s a fairway maven with solid course history and good form (6-for-6 this season with two Top 10s among four Top 25s).

Brian Harman (DK $7,900, FD $9,900)– The “other” Brian isone of the local residents dubbed the “Sea Island Mafia,” though none of themhas actually won the thing. Could this be the year? Harman finished T4 twoyears ago and has three top-20s in his first three events this season.

Russell Henley (DK $8,500, FD $9,800) –He’s technically not part of the Sea Island Mafia-like Kuchar, Harman, and ZJ, but he’s one of the UGA alums to notch a top 10 here. In fact – he’s got three top 10s here. His MC in 2018 could keep some folks off him.

ChrisKirk (DK $7,600, FD $9,400) –I’mrooting for Kirk, who played well in his return last week and is the courserecord holder at Plantation with a T4, T4 and a win in three of his last sixhere. He’s perfect at this price point in GPPs, though he could get chalky.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,900, FD $9,900) – Citedfatigue for his mini-slump before the surge in Bermuda. That little bit of restseems to have helped him as he’s now finished runner-up and T33 in his last twostarts. He’s back on track and was one of the hottest golfers on the Korn FerryTour, coming down the stretch last season. Someone that should be much higheron the draft board.

Also consider: Dylan Fritelli, Russell Knox, VaughnTaylor, Rory Sabbatini, Lanto Griffin

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Brian Stuard (DK $7,400, FD $9,600) – Another Brian! Stuard is sporting monster form right now as he’s made six consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour – something we’ll need this week in such a big field. He’s also racked up four top 30 finishes in that span including a T4 at the Shriners, and he finished 22nd at the 2017 RSM Classic.

Kevin Streelman, (DK$7,400, FD $9,500) – He’s got a checkered history at Sea Island,with just one Top 20 and a couple of missed cuts. Nobody will be on him thisweek and his accuracy should be considered a great strength at this relatively shortcourse. A boom-or-bust GPP play.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200, FD $8,700)– We haven’t heard much from Stanley lately, but he’s 2-for-2here and we need to find some value. Stanley gives us that along with Top 25upside.

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100, $9,200) – Not much form to speak of, but he finished T7 with Kisner and ZJ last year. He’s a longshot to make the Top 10 in consecutive tries here, but don’t count him out.

David Hearn (DK $7,000, FD $9,000) – Hearn’s record at Sea Island is impeccable, and he’s made five of six cuts this season dating back to the Greenbrier, including a T8 at Bermuda. But will he fly under the radar?

Doc Redman (DK $6,600, FD $7,500) – We’ll throw out his MC last week because Mayakoba does not smile on first-timers and give him some edge because of his obvious talent and ball-striking.

More value golfers for GPPs: Adam Schenk, Boo Weekley, PatrickRodgers, Henrik Norlander, Dominic Bozzelli, Sepp Straka, Robert Streb, BrendanSteele, David Lingmerth

The PGA DFS Fades:

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – He finished T18 here in 2015 but hasn’t had much success at Sea Island, and the price drop to $7,300 could make him somewhat popular despite an MC last week. No Top 25s yet this season, and I’m not seeing the upside.

Kevin Chappell (DK $7,100, FD $8,900) – Chappell has played well here in the past, but he still doesn’t look right after returning from his back injury and isn’t quite ready to contend. A lot of folks will be drawn to the value based on his course history, but we can safely avoid him this week.

Rusty’s Sea Island Fade ofthe Week:

Alex Noren (DK $9,300, FD $10,900) – “This wayward traveler maycome from fine Stockholm stock, but his recently packed travel itinerary mayhave his sea legs a little tired after such a busy schedule. The Sea Island Mafiais a welcoming gang of scalawags, but this Swedish fish may not be sweet enoughto notch a Top 10 this week.” – Justin “Rusty” Seastrum

It’s great having my boy “Trusty Rusty” fillingin for Spades – who’s taking the week off after recommending a fade of Billy Horscheland his T8 at the Mayakoba. I’m on board with Rusty’s take on Noren, especiallybecause he hasn’t been very good atthe events that he’s been playing all over the globe – and he’s not worth theprice.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Webb Simpson($11,600)

Brian Gay($8,800)

Austin Cook($7,800)

Harry Higgs($7,700)

David Hearn ($7,000)

HenrikNorlander ($6,900)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Webb Simpson($11,600)

Charles HowellIII ($10,400)

Kyle Stanley ($7,200)

Patrick Rodgers($7,000)

Doc Redman($6,900)

Robert Streb ($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Kevin Kisner ($9,800)

ScottieScheffler ($9,200)

Brian Gay($8,800)

Chris Kirk ($7,600)

Brian Stuard ($7,400)

Peter Uihlein($7,100)

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4 years ago 0 comment

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Chris Kirk

Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Golf Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFS Fades:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (leaving $$$):

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

PGADFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFS Fades:

Rusty’s Sea Island Fade ofthe Week:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

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