As we gear up for Week 13 of the NFL season, one of the best DFS slates of the year has arrived: Thanksgiving. Despite three games being much less than a traditional Sunday, the player pool is filled with enticing options at each position.
Be sure to use our proprietary NFL projections to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff ($6,500 DK / $8,200 FD)
Pacing the NFL with a whopping 32.7 points per game, Jared Goff has led this Lions offense to new heights this season. Surrounded by a plethora of talent at every position, Goff has entered Most Valuable Player conversations amongst the league’s best. Playing behind a stout offensive line that has only allowed 22 sacks through 11 games, Goff ranks fourth in protection rate amongst qualified quarterbacks, leading to the most efficient season of his career. Goff ranks first in yards per attempt, second in completion percentage, second in deep ball completion percentage, and third in red zone completion percentage. In a matchup against a Chicago Bears defense that has a mere 21.8% blitz rate and the third highest average depth of target allowed, Goff and the Lions offense are poised to have a big day.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000 DK / $8,000 FD)
Despite missing half of Miami’s games thus far through 12 weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has been having quite the season. Having won three in a row, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins back into the playoff hunt. While the matchup is far from appealing on paper with the Packers ranked 4th DVOA against the pass and the cold weather conditions, Tagovailoa’s ceiling is as high as any quarterback on this NFL slate. While the Packers don’t do anything exceptionally well or notably struggle in a particular area, Miami has an edge in player personnel, especially if Jaire Alexander is unable to play.
Thanks to the offensive play-calling of Mike McDaniel and a supporting cast of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Tagovailoa has averaged 255.5 yards per game since returning from injury, throwing for an average of 2.2 touchdowns. Moreover, he has averaged 34 passing attempts per game during that stretch, including a whopping 40 attempts last week, despite winning the game by 19 points. Make no mistake about it – this is one of the premier offenses in the NFL when Tagovailoa is under center. In their last three games, Miami is 3-0 and have averaged 30.33 points per game, while averaging 27.5 points per game in the six full games from their starting quarterback, versus 10 points per game with Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle under center. Expect Tagovailoa to get the ball out to his playmakers early and often.
Honorable Mentions: Jordan Love, Caleb Williams
Running Backs
Devon Achane ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD)
Making his mark with an immediate impact in his rookie season, Devon Achane has quickly become a household name amongst the fantasy football community. Known for his big-play ability and exceptional speed, Achane fits this Miami offense like a glove. Despite the Packers’ defense holding rushing attacks to 4.3 yards per carry, 112.7 rushing yards per game, and 10 touchdowns, it is Achane’s work in the passing game that gives him one of, if not the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Essentially operating as the Dolphins WR2/WR3 this season, Achane ranks second in target share amongst running backs, third in receiving yards, and second in receptions. Sporting an absurd 44.4% route participation rate, Achane is poised for another big game, where he has posted over 20 fantasy points in four of the last five since Tagovailoa has returned, including four or more targets and three or more receptions during that span.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD)
If you are looking for a pivot to Achane at the running back position, look no further than Jahmyr Gibbs. Coming into this one as a 10-point home favorite, the Lions’ running back duo most certainly will be of interest. However, their level of importance on this slate relies upon David Montgomery’s health. At the time of writing, Montgomery was a non-participant in practice, leaving his status for Thursday’s game in question. If Montgomery is eventually ruled out, or is limited in any fashion, Gibbs immediately becomes a top priority.
Although he conceives a sizable amount of work to Montgomery in a shared backfield, Gibbs has made a true impact in the NFL’s best offense, despite the lack of opportunity compared to other teams’ featured running backs. Gibbs has only received 12 or more carries in two of the team’s last five games, while having a mere 51.8% snap share on the season, but he makes the most of the chances he gets. Gibbs sits fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and has 11 total touchdowns, 10 of which came on the ground. Moreover, he is third in yards per carry with 5.8, second in breakaway runs with 14, and first in explosive runs rating.
Josh Jacobs ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
While the majority of the field will prioritize the first two running backs listed here, and rightfully so, Josh Jacobs make for an excellent tournament play. With MarShawn Lloyd struggling with injuries and AJ Dillon on injured reserve since the beginning of the year, Jacobs has gotten all the touches he can handle in his first season with Green Bay. Jacobs has already eclipsed 200 carries on the season, ranking fourth in the NFL. Moreover, the Packers are executing over 30 run plays per game, good for sixth in the NFL. This has led to Jacobs being third in total rush yards, while averaging 4.7 yards per carry and posting eight touchdowns. If you are feeling uneasy about the Packers wide receiver carousel, the weather conditions in this one, or a combination of both, then Jacobs is your guy.
Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK / $6,100 FD)
While he is unlikely to lead the position in scoring when all three games have finished, Rico Dowdle has a ton of upside in this one. Since their bye week, the Cowboys have essentially turned the keys over to Dowdle over Ezekiel Elliott, and the former has certainly outperformed the latter. Despite the negative game scripts the Cowboys are often in due to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury, Dowdle continues to make the best of a bad situation. He has now had double-digit carries in four straight games, including three or more targets in each appearance during that span. Moreover, the matchup against a Giants defense that has been decimated on the ground makes for an intriguing conversation surrounding the Cowboys lead running back. On the season, New York has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, including a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry. While he is not in the same category of the top running backs on this slate, Dowdle can make a case to be the best overall play in the mid range of the pricing grid.
Honorable Mentions: David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
After a phenomenal season just a year ago, Amon-Ra St. Brown has picked up right where he left off. While there are many skilled players in one of, if not the best offense in the NFL, St. Brown is the heartbeat to it all. Not only does he lead the team in almost every category, but he sits fourth in the league in receptions, eighth in yards, and second in receiving touchdowns. Moreover, he leads the entire NFL with 49 catches resulting in a first down. While Jaylon Johnson has been having an amazing season for the Bears, St. Brown is the clear top option on the slate and is matchup-proof.
Pivot: CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,600 FD)
Jameson Williams ($6,100 DK / $5,700 FD)
If you cannot play St. Brown, there are plenty of other ways to get exposure to the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate. Jameson Williams missed two weeks after being suspended but has not missed a beat since coming back. Across those last three games, Williams has amassed a 12-241-1 line on 18 targets. Moreover, he ranks 4th in the NFL in receiving yards per target, meaning he does not need a ton of looks to be productive. Williams has an average depth of target of 14.1, a 34.5% air yards share, and ranks third amongst qualified wide receivers with 2.57 fantasy points per target.
Pivot: Tyreek Hill ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)
Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) and Rome Odunze ($5,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
It is no surprise that the Bears offense has improved in the last two weeks versus the early stages of their season. Following the firing of Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown has taken over offensive coordinator duties for one of the most intriguing offensive depth charts in the NFL. Brown, who spent three seasons under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, has yet to get a win in his new role, but this offense passes the eye test. While all three Bears wide receivers have seen an uptick in volume, most notably Rome Odunze, it is Keenan Allen that is a top option for Caleb Williams in this matchup. After a slow start to the season, Allen came alive last week, posting a 9-86-1 line on 15 targets, operating primarily out of the slot. However, Odunze also ran his fair share of routes out of the slot, slightly behind Allen.
With all three wide receivers seeing over 82% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, there is plenty of opportunity to pick on a matchup against the Lions’ slot coverage. Amik Robertson is Detroit’s primary slot corner, playing nearly 50% of the snaps and 90% of those out of the slot. This season, Robertson has allowed 1.44 fantasy points per target, including a 59.6% catch rate, leading the Lions to rank 26th in the NFL in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers.
Honorable Mentions: Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore, Jayden Reed
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK / $6,300 FD)
While he is far from a top option in an offense boasting the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane, Smith has been remarkable since Tagovailoa returned from injury. Over his last five games, Smith has three or more receptions in each appearance, having eclipsed 45 yards in four straight games. Moreover, he has a whopping 15 receptions and 188 yards in his last two, where he also caught three touchdowns. With the Packers having a low 20.3% blitz rate, Miami won’t be forced for extra help on their offensive line, leaving room for Smith to run more routes. The Packers rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends, giving up a near 20% target rate and 1.67 yards per route ran.
Sam LaPorta ($4,100 DK / $5,700 FD)
Despite the falloff from a remarkable rookie season, it is hard to blame Sam LaPorta for his personal shortcomings, rather than to look at just how good everyone else in this offense has been. When your offense has two elite running backs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, you won’t be a top option every single time your team takes the field. However, LaPorta can easily be the highest scoring tight end of the slate, which you’ll need. In Detroit stacks, it will be hard to overlook a player that averages 2.49 fantasy points per target at a scarce position. Moreover, the Bears defense will have their hands full doubling St. Brown on the outside, similarly to how they did to Justin Jefferson last week, leading T.J. Hockenson to explode for seven receptions and 114 yards.
Honorable Mentions: Tucker Kraft, Theo Johnson
DST Rankings
- Dallas Cowboys ($3,100 DK / $4,100 FD)
- Detroit Lions ($3,500 DK / $4,700 FD)
- Green Bay Packers ($2,800 DK / $4,200 FD) and Miami Dolphins ($2,700 DK / $3,900 FD)
- New York Giants ($2,800 DK / $3,700 FD)
- Chicago Bears ($2,300 DK / $3,500 FD)
