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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Multiple courses, similar in length and layout
    • Spyglass Hill – 7,035 yards, Par 72
    • Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course – (easiest) 6,958 yards, Par 71
    • Pebble Beach Golf Links – (hardest) 6,816 yards, Par 72
  • Cut: 54-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play on Sunday
  • 18 holes at each of the courses the first three days, final round at Pebble Beach
  • Grass: Poa Annua greens, Ryegrass fairways
  • Wind can be a factor, especially at Pebble Beach and Monterey (high winds for Saturday?)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around-the-Green; Proximity from 100-125; Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400; Greens in Regulation; Birdie or Better; Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Paul Casey (DK $10,500, FD $11,700) – We highlightedsome of the focus stats that help folks win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am,but making the cut and winning here requires a solid mental approach aided byan affable nature. Casey has the game to fit these courses and solid historyhere (second place in 2019, T8 in 2018) but is also a nice dude – which helpswhen you’re playing alongside so many amateurs. As always, the key to hissuccess will be his short game.

Jason Day (DK $10,300, FD $11,500) – Continuing in the nice guy category, Day has five straight Top 15s here with four of those finishes as Top 5s. He really wants to win here, and he’s got the attitude and game to make it happen. I have some concerns about his ailing back, and so should the majority of the DFS world, so we could see lower ownership than what you’d expect from a perennial contender like Day.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,700, FD $11,000) – Fitzpatrick might see low ownership in GPPs with his price among the bigger names, and I’d probably stay away in cash games since he can have some stinkers – but the 54-hole cut makes him one of my top choices as he’s been known to get hot and put together some very low rounds. I love his attitude and his ability to put bad rounds behind him, which should keep him in the mix at the AT&T this week.

Graeme McDowell (DK $9,200, FD $10,400) – He won last week in Saudi Arabia, and while I’m not going overboard on Dustin Johnson shares, playing G-Mac after a long flight doesn’t scare me as much and it does with DJ. The Portrush, Northern Ireland native has some history at Pebble Beach and he’s one of golf’s best ambassadors. Length is not an issue on these tracks, so deploy him in GPPs in the hopes that he gets hot with the flat stick.

Also consider: DustinJohnson, Patrick Cantlay, Brandt Snedeker, VictorHovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,100 to $8,900):

Daniel Berger (DK $8,900, FD $10,300) – Berger is coming off a Top 10 at the WMPO and he finished with a T10 in his only appearance here in 2015. He’s expensive but a really good bet for a Top 20 finish.

Russell Knox (DK $8,600, FD $10,000) – With no major holes in his game, Knox is a good fit for these courses and the format – though we’ll need at least one round where his putter gets hot for him to get in the Top 5.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500, FD $10,100) – Kisner’s history here is jumbled – with a couple missed cuts, a T28 last year and a Top 10 in 2017. But he’s an excellent ball striker, is quite strong on poa annua greens and registers inside the Top 20 on Par 4 efficiency 350-400. The MC at the Amex could keep his ownership low in GPPs.

Scott Piercy (DK $7,800, FD $9,600) – I’m always interested in Piercy for the West Coast swing, and he’s trending up (55-20-10) the past three years here. He finished T6 last week and is a solid bet to make the 54-hole cut – even if he fades a bit on Sunday as he tends to do.

Scott Stallings (DK $7,600, FD $9,200) – Stallings loves the event (14-7-3 from 2017-19) and his last missed cut was at the Houston Open. He’s not without risk, but he’s popping on all my models and he excels in SG: Approach and SG: ARG.

Kevin Streelman (DK ($7,400, FD $9,100) – Streelman is another high-risk golfer and he’s really been struggling lately. Fortunately for him, he’s playing an event that has seen him finish 17-14-6-7 over the past four years, notching Top 10s in each of the past two tries. He’ll be in my mix of GPP plays.

Also consider: Sung Kang, Tom Hoge, Adam Hadwin, Vaughn Taylor, Lanto Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,000):

Brian Gay (DK $6,900, FD $8,300) – He’s way too cheap for his course history, and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays on shorter courses. He also shows up in my SG models (SG and putting) and his faults (SG: Off the Tee) shouldn’t hurt him here.

Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – Baddeley showed up in my models for the focus stats and I doubt anybody will be on him this week. A worthy golfer to toss into GPPs in one of the final slots.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,700, FD $8,200) – I like that he finished T10 here last year and ranks highly in the Strokes Gained (overall) and SG: ARG categories. Worth a look in GPPs, but very risky.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,500, FD $7,700) – Lebioda can make a bunch of birdies and is a decent ball-striker, but he’s essentially a feast-or-famine finisher that cracks the Top 25 or misses the cut. At this price, that kind of variance should be expected.

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,400, FD $7,500) – Kim finished T4 here last year alongside Jason Day and has been fighting back issues the past few weeks just like the Australian. If you’re looking for golfers under $6,500, you need to take some chances.

Seamus Power (DK $6,400, FD $7,000) – Speaking of taking chances, Power will see sub 2% ownership but did make the cut here in 2017, finishing 39th. He’s a true longshot to finish among the Top 25, so I’d only roll him out in multi-entry GPP at like 5-10 percent at most.

More value golfers forGPPs: Steve Stricker, Ted Potter, Luke Donald, Tyler DuncanD.J. Trahan, Padraig Harrington, Chris Stroud

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PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of 132 golfers
  • TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 yards
  • Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The cut has been between Even Par and +2 the past six years
  • Medium course difficulty (24/48 in 2019)
  • Bermuda greens
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4s: 450-500, SG: Around the Green, Approach, Proximity to Hole, SG: Putting, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $12,100) – Rahm went to Arizona State and just finished second at Torrey Pines. He’s 4-for-4 at the event and his worst finish is a T16. He’s the betting favorite at 6-1, a lock-in cash game and I’ll have him in about 40-50 percent of my GPPs.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,900) – Always in the mix, Thomaslost some momentum when he missed the cut at the Sony, but I’m willing to throwthat performance out because of the brutal conditions. He’s also had somestruggles at this event, so maybe we get a break on his ownership? His eliteball-striking makes him a fine GPP play.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,500, FD $11,500) – Fowler is the defendingchamp and has finished 1-11-4-2 in his last four tries. He should contend againif he can right the ship after his MC in San Diego and get his putter going.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,100, FD $11,300) – Matsuyama has won here twice (2016 and 2017), finishing 15th here last season. He checks all the boxes in my models and is actually a bit of a bargain considering his course history.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – We know how good his putter is, and with the form decent and 4/4 on his last four cuts here, he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

Branden Grace (DK $8,700, FD $10,200) – In his first appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he finished solo second place, and there are no major weaknesses that should have him in big trouble here. A worthy play in all formats.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) – Hovland checks all the boxes except around the green, and I think folks have forgotten about him a bit. He’s long enough and straight enough off the tee to employ either strategy, and he ranks well in SG: Approach. As you can see in the graphic below, he’s showing up in the models put together by Win Daily’s Patrick Waters too. I’ll have heavy GPP ownership this week.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) –.Another player who’s popping on my models, Moore’s yet to break through with a Top 10 here but is priced well and is an excellent ball striker. A risk-reward GPP mid-range value play.

Byeong Hun An (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – An is similar to Moore in that he’s a good ball striker who gets held back by his putter. This is a good venue to help rectify that and he’s 3-for-3 here so far.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) – Despite missing the cut here last season, Steele loves the venue and has three Top 20 finishes, including a solo third in 2018.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Chez Reavie, Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – A proven veteran with solid course history and an affordable price tag.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – I’m a Grillo fan and he’s 4-for-4 here. If he can get the putter blazing, who knows?

Martin Laird (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Laird will see pretty high ownership because of his amazing course history, so we might steer clear in large-field GPPs to differentiate.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,900, FD $8,000) – He’s played well here the last two years with a 5th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finishes in 2019, and he’s showing up in my models along with an affordable price.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – When Stuard goes flag hunting, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upsides. He’s super-cheap and looks like a good fit with the course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Beau Hossler, Max Homa, DennyMcCarthy, Danny Lee, Brian Gay, Chris Kirk

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PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open in Hawaii

Pick Management
written by Pick Management

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open in Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!

Golf Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 144 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Played at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii: 7,044 yards, par 70
  • Tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs, and bunkers – with an emphasis on accuracy, clubbing down and previous course knowledge
  • Bermuda turf and greens
  • Windy conditions expected
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; Par 4 Scoring; Less-than-Driver, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $12,000, FD $12,300) – After JT’s latestwin in a playoff late Sunday at Kapalua, he’s listed as theVegas favorite at 9-2. Itwas a weird finish but he should contend again this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,100, FD $11,500) – Webb is now oneof the most consistent golfers on Tour and he’s an excellent fit for this track,where he finished fourth in 2018. I’ll have shares alongside Thomas.

Matt Kuchar (DK $9,900, FD $11,100) – Kuchar won here last year and also at El Camaleon in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in 2018 – an event that features a correlative coastal course with a similar feel. He’s a solid cash gameplay.

Charles Howell III (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Howell has a good history here and as a solid ball striker excels in many of our focus stat categories. He’s finished in the Top 15 three of his last four times here and is 5/5 on cuts since 2015.

Also consider: Patrick Reed (All formats), Collin Morikawa & AbrahamAncer (GPP only)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Corey Conners (DK $7,800, FD $8,900) – He finished tied for third here last year after a T39 in his debut, and I’ll be hammering him into a big chunk of my GPPs. The upside is there and he’s a good bet to make the weekend. I love him in all formats this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,400, FD $10,000) – He’s had a nice run here, finishing T3, T18, T8 in his last three tries. A near-lock to make the cut and a solid bet for a Top 25. It should be a cash game staple and GPP plug-n-play.

J.T. Poston (DK $8,100, FD $9,900) – Poston had a solid week playing in tough competition, and he’s going to be popular given his recent form and the fit at this layout. He’s a fine play in all formats this week – just keep an eye on his ownership in tournaments.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,900, FD $9,700) – Don’t forget about Munoz. I liked him last week and he’s a sneaky play again here – even after his T10 finish last year at this venue

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,600, FD $9,300) – I can’t give up on Grillo, who’s struggled with the flat stick but can be a little more aggressive here and is an elite ball-striker with loads of GPP upside.

Also consider: Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner,Brian Stuard, Rory Sabbatini

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Brian Gay (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Gayhad a breakthrough in 2018 and a solid 2019, and he looks to get the ballrolling with another Top 25 here – something he accomplished in 2017 and 2019at Waialae. His MC at the RSM could keep folks off, and he finished T14 at theMayakoba.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – Kizzire’s recent form is trash, but Hawaii has treated him well the past few years. He’s an under-the-radar play who might just be the course horse we need to fit ion some studs.

Talor Gooch (DK $6,800, FD $8,200) – He’s GPP only as a value play with some upside, since he checks some of the key boxes, but not a guy who’s cash-viable.

Jimmy Walker (DK $6,800, FD $8,500) – It’s been a while since we’ve heard Walker discussed, but he’s a 2x winner here and this type, of course, is his bag, baby! He made the cut here last year after two misses in 2017 and 2018.

Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200, FD $7,100) – Old Man Kelly is super cheap and he’s a former winner with three top 15s here over the past five years. Dude loves this course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk, DanielBerger, Keegan Bradley, Scott Piercy, Harry Higgs

The PGA DFS Fades:

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – He hasn’t played well at this venue, which is a change from last week’s brainless fade of Xander Schauffele (At least I take some chances with my fades). Matsuyama played well in October but he’s a little too pricey for me given his track record in Hawaii.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,400, FD $10,800) – I expect him to be popular but I’m not ready to go overboard just yet. Niemann is a first-timer here and I prefer some of the guys who are a little cheaper.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (leaving $$$):

JustinThomas ($11,200)

AbrahamAncer ($9,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

BrianGay ($7,200)

ScottPiercy ($7,100)

JerryKelly ($6,200)

($400 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

WebbSimpson ($11,100)

CoreyConners ($8,900)

ChezReavie ($8,400)

EmilianoGrillo ($7,600)

KyleStanley ($7,000)

PattonKizzire ($6,900)

($100 left)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (large-field):

JustinThomas ($12,000)

J.T.Poston ($8,100)

SebastianMunoz ($7,900)

RorySabbatini ($7,600)

KeeganBradley ($7,200)

ChrisKirk ($6,700)

($100 left)

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PGA DFS Picks: Mayakoba Golf Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re finding you some prime selections for the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico, especially when it comes to winning GPPs!

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PGADFS Course Notes:

  • Course: El Camaleón Golf Club in Playa del Carmen, Mexico (Par: 71 – Yardage: 6,987 – Grass: Seashore Paspalum)
  • Greg Norman designed this fascinating semi-coastal layout, which features three different ecosystems, including some thicket and jungle in the upper areas, and more swampy wetlands with minimal undulation on the Mexican-Caribbean coastline
  • Cut: The field is at 132 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties playing the weekend.
  • The winning score is typically in the minus-17-to-22 range
  • Previous winners: Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, John Huh, Mark Wilson, Brian Gay, and Fred Funk.
  • Higher winds could always complicate play and prep, but the course plays to a field average of roughly 70.2 (-0.8 RTP) on the par-71 layout.
  • Focus Stat Categories are Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000and up):

Matt Kuchar (DK $11,400, FD $11,800) – I doubt El Tucan will be on his bag this year, but Kuchar seems to be ready to defend his title and take his lumps on social media because of last year’s controversy. It’s his season debut, but he’s one of the favorites and will make plenty of my builds.

Tony Finau (DK $10,600, FD $11,500) – Finau is an excellent driver of the golf ball, even with that abbreviated backswing, but sometimes struggles with accuracy – so this is a GPP pick only. If he can keep it in play and make some putts, there’s no reason he can’t win.

Charles Howell, III (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) – Along and accurate hitter, Howell checks all the boxes for this course and iscoming here in decent form. He’s 8-for-10 making the cut at Mayakoba with threetop-10s and another four top-20s and is an impressive 5-for-5 this season withtwo top-10s and another top-20. Fine for both cash and GPP despite the MC lasttime around here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Ancer is Mexico’s top golf talent, and he would love for this to be his first career win. The driving accuracy is there, and his form is solid, as he placed T4 in his WGC-HSBC Champions debut.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100, FD $10,700) – Scheffler is a top talent who led after an opening 62 before finishing T3 in Bermuda. He’s an excellent ball-striker who hits solid approaches, but I won’t be 100 percent as he’s making his El Camaleón debut.

LantoGriffin (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)– He’s thecurrent FedEx Cup points leader, and he’s finished no worse than a pair of T18sthis season. I worry a bit about his accuracy off the tee and the better fieldshe’ll be encountering, but he’s a GPP play you shouldn’t fade completely.

Also consider: Victor Hovland, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, AaronWise, Russell Knox

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $8,900):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900, FD$10,500) – Myfriends get on my case for playing him too much in the majors, but he’s a popularDFS target for his elite ball-striking. He’s got some good course history withfinishes of T10, T9, and solo 15th in three tries at El Camaleón. Moreof a GPP play, though he could get chalky on DK.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) – The form hasn’t been great, but he’s 4-for-4 here with a 4th and a 14th, so I’m buying his skillset of accuracy and precision over power and loading up in GPPs. Plus, he’s a personal favorite and a cool who likes to tell gambling stories about Phil.

Pat Perez (DK $8,100, FD $9,600)– Helikes the course, as one of his three career wins came here when he triumphed in2016 by two strokes over Gary Woodland at 21-under, featuring a third-round 62.Mix in three other top 20s at El Camaleón (in seven total starts). A recent solo thirdat the Shriners and an affinity for Paspalum (he won at TPC Kuala Lumpur whenit was Paspalum), and you’ve got yourself an option.

Brian Gay (DK $7,900, FD $9,400) – He was excellent in Bermuda with a T3 – his third top 25 of the new season – and this is where he had his first win in 2008. Overall, he’s 9-for-9 here with four top-25s, and I just can’t fade the guy despite him being a chalky pick.

Brice Garnett (DK $7,600, FD$9,300) – The veteran ballstriker has a great record here (he’s 4-for-4 since 2014 with three top 10s, aT25 and a scoring average of 67.81) and he’s won on Paspalum at the CoralesPuntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018. I like the discount on DK andwill be using him in a handful of builds.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,500, FD $9,000) – The exciting young rookie got close at Bermuda, sharing the 36-hole lead and sitting by himself at the top of the 54-hole before finishing solo second, possibly because of too much napping. There’s a lot of reasons to roster him this week, his affinity for coastal tracks coming in along with solid form and upside.

Also consider: Scott Piercy, Harold Varner III,Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Ryan Armour (DK $7,200, FD $8,800) – A short hitter but one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, Armour hits fairways and finished solo 4th as a rookie here in 2007. Since then, he’s played well here, with a T21 last year, and he arrives in good form with a T23 in Houston and a T8 in Bermuda. The price is fair and Armour is a great course fit for cash or GPP.

J.J. Spaun (DK $6,700, FD $8,300) – Despite his solid course history, I don’t know if Spaun will be super popular this week because he usually isn’t very highly owned. In his first appearance as a rookie in 2016, he finished T28, and he’s added a T14 and a T3 since them posting a scoring average over his 12 rounds of 67.75. His form is poor, but this course can be an elixir for the wayward.

Calum Hill (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – There’s plenty tolike about this young Scottish lad, who finished 2nd in the Road to Mallorcastandings that rank Euro Tour hopefuls. The 25-year-old’s game worked out well onthe Euro Tour with three top 30s in each of his last three starts. The pricemakes him a solid value option in a week without too many of them.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,400, FD $9,200) – Kim is 3-for-3 here with a T17 in 2015, a third place in 2017, and T26 (with Chez Reavie) last season. He hasn’t flashed much brilliance this season, but I like this layout as a springboard to some better form.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Todd won at Bermuda and has an excellent record here. He’ll be chalky value pick because of his recent win, but I’ll have some shares given his penchant for low rounds. Let’s just hope he makes the cut!

Sepp Straka (DK $6,800, FD $8,000) – I’ve fared well using Straka in DFS and his price remains relatively low. He’s making his debut at his event, but that hasn’t stopped folks before. Straka is accurate off the tee and has strong SG: T2G numbers, so I’ll give him a look at this price point.

More value golfers for GPPs:  Patton Kizzire, Brian Stuard,Martin Laird, Xinjun Zhang, Scott Brown, C.T. Pan

The PGA DFS Fades:

Danny Lee (DK $8,300, FD $9,800) – Lee could popular this week since he finished second here last year and nabbed a second-place finish at the CJ CUP, so I’m not going to castigate DFS fans who check out game logs and course history – heck, I do it myself. I may have one or two shares of the Korean-born New Zealander in GPPs, but I’ll definitely be underweight on the field; Lee is an inconsistent [player who misses a lot of cuts and missed cut equity says that if he’s chalky, it might help to fade him.

Cameron Champ (DK $8,700, FD $10,000) – An incredibly long hitter but one who’s not particularly accurate off the tee, his game isn’t suited well for the layout, and the price is still too high for me to use. Sorry, Champ.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Billy Horschel (DK $10,200, FD$11,300) – “He performs better as asleeper than a top play, and when you really need him to play well,he lets you down.” – Mark “Spades”Spada

Spades is really mellowing out with his rhetoric! I expected a lot of nasty remarks, but I agree with what he’s saying. Add in the fact that Billy Ho is the fifth most expensive player in the field on both sites and listed as No. 1 on the PGA Tour’s power rankings this week, and we have a fade I can get behind! I’ve had Horschel burn me multiple times when he’s getting lots of chalky action, and when I have no shares, he seems to explode. I’ll commit to exactly ONE lineup with Horschel to stay underweight and that’ll be it.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

Abraham Ancer ($9,200)

Scottie Scheffler($9,100)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Chez Reavie($8,500)

Si Woo Kim($7,400)

Sepp Straka($6,800)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

Jason Day ($11,000)

Lanto Griffin($9,000)

Brian Gay($7,900)

Harry Higgs($7,500)

Brendan Todd($7,200)

Ryan Armour($7,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

Charles HowellIII ($9,600)

Aaron Wise ($9,400)

Emiliano Grillo($8,900)

Harold VarnerIII ($7,900)

Xinjun Zhang($7,300)

Calum Hill($6,600)

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PGA DFS Picks: The WGC-HSBC Champions

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the final leg of theAsian swing with for the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. Let’s find some GPPwinners!

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Quick reviewof last week: We had Tiger, Matsuyama and Rory in our core builds, and theyfinished 1-3. We also pegged high-priced Matthew Fitzpatrick as a key fade, andhe finished second to last among the 76 golfers who finished the tournament. Prettysolid.

We also had Matthew Fitzpatrick listed as a top fade!

Okay. Now onto this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Course: Sheshan International Golf Club(Par: 72 – Yardage: 7,264 – Greens: Bentgrass).
  • Like last week, it’s tree-lined, with plenty of water hazards (inplay on 11 holes).
  • No-cut event featuring 78 golfers
  • In three of the last sixeditions, winners finished 20-under or lower
  • Rain isn’t expected and thedaytime highs will eclipse 70 degrees.
  • Focus Stat Categories are Par 5 Scoring, Birdie or Better %,Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Strokes Gained: Putting, SG: Tee-to-Green, SandSave %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD$12,400) –We talked about how Rory likestree-line layouts, and he finished T3 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, where he ledthe field in par-5 scoring – obne of our top stats this week. In four starts atSheshan International, he has two top-10s and a T11. Giddyup.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,100, FD $11,400) – Matsuyama is playing really well and his form (T16, a T3 and a solo second to open the season) isn’t the only thing he’s got going. He tore the course to shreds at Sheshan International in 2016 en route to a seven-shot victory.

Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800, FD $11,300) – Xander likes the competition of a loaded field, and there’s a lot of great golfers here to get him pumped up.  He’s the defending champion and he finished T10 at Narashino on Sunday. The X-Man is ready.

Justin Rose (DK $10,500, FD $11,200) – I like Rose, despitehis putting woes. I like Justin, so much that I’m bustin! Seriously, though – theEnglishman is a great ball striker and he won here in 2017, finishing third inhis title defense.

Also consider: Paul Casey,Patrick Reed, Tony Finau

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500to $9,400):

Adam Scott (DK $9,300, FD $10,600) – Adam has top-20s in three of the last five appearances here and in five of his last seven starts worldwide. That’s a great start, he’s got a good price, and he’s shown improvement with his occasionally shaky putting.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,900, FD$10,200) –When he’srolling, he’s really rolling. He finished T6 at ZOZO and that gave him his 10thtop-25 in 14 starts worldwide. Finished T11 here last year and has a greatattitude, especially in no-cut events.

Byeong Hun An (DK $9,100, FD$10,000) –Ben hasplayed well recently, which helped carry him through a difficult course design atthe ZOZO. He was T6 at NINE BRIDGES, he finished T8 at Narashino and while Shesanis a challenge, he’s a solid contrarian play who will be low-owned.

Corey Connors (DK $8,200, FD$9,300) – Connorsis one of the more underrated golfers on tout and has finished T13-T12-T6 inadvance of his debut at Shesan. PGA tour notes that he excelled on TPC SanAntonio’s tough par 5s – which is a featured stat here.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,600, FD$8,900) –Oostyfinished T46th last week, but I’ll chalk that up to bad weather. He’s still greatoff the tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who can get hot with theputter.

Matt Wallace (DK $ FD $9,600) – The cheeky, sometimes-harsh Brit is debuting as an official member of the PGA Tour and has three top-10s and a T15 in his last five starts on the Euro Tour. We saw a little of what he can do in crowded fields last season during the majors, and he’s got plenty of upside.

Charles Howell, III (DK $7,900, FD $9,000) – A long and accuratehitter and bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howellis cheap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubton this unfamiliar layout.

Also consider:  Sungjae Im, Tyrell Hatton, Bernd Wiesberger, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – One of my favorite under-the-radarGPP plays, Van Rooyen got cut last week but otherwise has been in good form. Hefinished T14-T12-Win-T5-T20-T14-MC-T10-MC over his last nine starts dating backto the Euro Tour’s Scottish Open, and he’s a career best 58th in the OfficialWorld Golf Ranking.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –Kisner is a capable player without any major flaws who’s always underpriced,and I like his chances of rebounding after a tough T66 at the ZOZO. Jet lag isa thing.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –I’ll be using him exclusively in GPPs after last week’s debacle. I can guessthat poor showing was in part because of the weather, because he’s too good to finishthat far down. He’ll be off most people’s lists, which puts him on mine.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000, FD$8,600) – A long and straight driver of the golf ball, theenigmatic but eminently likeable Bradley has some good performances here: T11(2013) and sixth (2018) at Sheshan International and finished T13 at Narashino,where he was T6 in GIR. GPP-only play.

More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Joost Luiten, MikeLorenzo-Vera, Romain Langasque, J.T. Poston

The PGA DFS Fades:

Ian Poulter (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) – He’s not great withexpectations, and he’ll be really popular because of his record in China. Golfis a fickle beast, and Poulter won’t make too many of my builds.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400, FD $10,400) – I’m not sure Spieth hasproven anything on the golf course recently, and he finished T66 at the ZOZO. Theprice is still too high, and I’m not convinced he’s accurate enough off the teeto excel here.

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Henrik Stenson (DK $9,800, FD $10,800) – “He’s only done well in Euro tournaments recently and the first week without his three-wood, he misses the cut. He’s overpriced – should be in the $8K range on DK.” – Mark “Spades” Spada

Right there withyou, Spades. The magic three wood is gone, and so is the magic golf game.Stenson isn’t a great putter, and he missed the cut at the Houston Open despitebeing the odds-on favorite. He’s a fade for me, bro.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

R. McIlroy ($11,700)

B. Horschel ($8,900)

C. Conners ($8,200)

K. Kisner ($7,200)

K. Bradley ($7,000)

J.T. Poston ($6,700)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2:

X. Schauffele ($10,800)

A. Scott ($9,300)

L. Oosthuizen ($7,600)

C. Reavie ($7,000)

M. Lorenzo-Vera ($6,600)

M. Wallace ($8,700)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3:

J. Rose ($10,500)

E. Van Rooyen ($7,500)

B. An ($9,100)

J. Luiten ($7,100)

T. Hatton ($8,600)

L. Glover ($7,100)

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PGA DFS Picks: The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the second leg of theAsian swing with for the inaugural ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan. Let’s find somegems!

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PGA DFS — Course Notes:

  • Course:Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club (Par: 70 – Yardage: 7,041 – Greens:Bentgrass).
  • Tree-lined, zoysia fairways with threepar 5s and five par 3s, with water in play off the tee on three holes and fivetotal – and a bunch of greenside bunkers.
  • No-cutevent featuring 78 golfers: 60golfers from last year’s FedExCup standings, 10 from the Japan Golf Tour, and 8sponsor invites.
  • Loaded field with 12 of the Top 20 inOWGR participating.
  • FocusStat Categories are Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee (cross-referencedfor accuracy), Strokes Gained: Approach, Scrambling, Sand Save %, Par 4 Scoring.
  • Rain and wind expected this week, so we may grab some folkswho play well in those conditions.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – He won last week in Korea and checks most of the boxes this week. I won’t have massive ownership given the high price and need for a Top 3 to be worth the price, but he’s hard to fade.

RoryMcIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,300) – Rory said the course really meets his eye off the tee, ashe’s a fan of tree-lined layouts, and the last couple of days he’s been righthere playing in the MGM Resorts The Challenge Japan Skins. He’s one of the top dogswhen it comes to Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, as he’s the best driver of the golfball in the game, and he seems to be enjoying himself alongside his friends inJapan.

HidekiMatsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,200) – Matsuyama is right at home on thiscourse and is one of the few who has experience with the layout. A great ballstriker who’s a perennial leader in the focus stat categories, he’ll be popularthis week. He’s also beenplaying here a lot this week in the skins event and eventhough he’s one of the betting favorites, I’ll have shares in all formats.

Paul Casey (DK $10,100, FD $10,700) – Casey is good fit for this golf course as he was eighth on tour in SG: Approach in this past season and he won at the Valspar on Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course – a correlated course. He plays well in rain, played badly in the Italian Open and he’s also kind of expensive – making him an excellent GPP play who should garner low ownership this week.

AdamScott (DK $9,900, FD $10,600) – Much like Casey, Scott could easily fly under the radar athis price point. But he’s a savvy play and good course horse as he’s a regularfinisher among the elite in SG: Approach. The poor showing at the Shriner’swill keep most of the field off him, so I’m buying.

TommyFleetwood (DK $9,800, FD $10,400) – He plays well in theseconditions and has no problem competing with the world’s best. He’s got seventop 20s in his last nine starts worldwide since The Open Championship and he’sa closer who plays well in the final rounds of a tournament – something thathelps in no-cut events. I’ll likely have massive shares sicne ownership wiollbe low after he finished just T20 last week.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8,000to $9,400):

Victor Hovland (DK $9,400, FD $10,000) – Hovland’s insanesub-70s round streak came to and end in Korea, but he’s still a betting favoritewith plenty to prove on the PGA Tour – and he’s not going to carry the ownershiphe did in last week’s event.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,300, FD $10,500) – If he can avoid the long rough and keep it in play, there’s no reason Tiger can’t play well enough to win. He’s been playing the Skins Game this week after getting his knee cleaned out and is optimistic about his chances in the upcoming events. He needs just one more win to tie Sam Snead for most career PGA TOUR victories at 82.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Finau might be my favoritegolfer this week at any price. He checks all the boxes in all the stat categorieswe’re focused on, and he’s playedwell at his most recent events (T9 at Shriner’s and T10 at Alfred Dunhill Links).Narashino has some bizarre, undulating bentgrass greens (he likes bentgrass andthey’ll be using alternating sets of the greens in different days) and thattends to favor the consistency of the longer clubs in the bag, where Finaushines.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,400, FD $9,300) – I am loving this price onOosty, who finished second at last year’s Valspar and is seeing his firstaction in a couple of months since concluding the 2018-19 season with four straight top 20s. He’s great offthe tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who should perform well inthis loaded field.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,200, FD $9,100) – Niemann has fared well as a ball-strikerand rates well in SG: Off the Tee. He also won a few weeks ago but scrambles outof the sand well and ranks inside the top-20 in Par-4 scoring average. Niemannmakes the short hop to Japan after a top-12 finish at The CJ Cup in Korea lastweek.

Also consider: Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Shane Lowry (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $8K):

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Wolff played badlyin Korea and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, but I’m a sucker for aredemption story. A talent like this coupled with a price drop means I’ll be grabbingplenty of exposure in GPPs and counting on him for a Top 20 finish.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD $8,600) – Reavie is another across-the-boardperformer in our focus stats and he’s relatively cheap on DK this week. Hemight be more of a cash game value play at this price, but I’ll be using him ina few GPPs.

Charles Howell, III (DK $7,300, FD $8,600) – A long and accurate hitterand bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howell ischeap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt onthis unfamiliar layout.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,100, FD $8,200) – Sabbatini plays wellon the course corollaries and is a modest $7,100 on DK despite a T10 at theItalian Open and a T31 finish last week in Korea. I use him in a lot of GPPsand rarely regret it.

Nate Lashley (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – Another under-the-radarpro who finished T20 last week in Korea, Lashley plays well on similar layoutsand seems to be enjoying the PGA Tour after his breakthrough win last season. Arelatively steady performer, he’s guaranteed to9 be low-owned and has upside inGPPs.

Value golfers for GPPs: C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, JoelDahmen, Bubba Watson, Wyndham Clark

Also consider: Andrew Putnam, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Abraham Ancer, Dylan Frittelli

The PGA DFS Fades:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,000, FD $9,600) – It pains me to fade him,but I’ll have much fewer shares of Fitzpatrick than usual based on his pricejump and unknown course conditions. He also might draw additional ownershipfollowing his one-stroke defeat at theItalian Open, which was his fifth runner-up finish in 11 months. I do like him,but my exposure will be diminished.

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,900, FD $7,900) – He’s a poor bad-weathergolfer and I’m expecting a letdown after a T12 last week in Korea. Palmer alsostruggles with Par 4 scoring and is making a lot of lists as a top value play thisweek, so he might be highly owned. If I was entering 150 lineups I’d have himin 3-5, but he’s far from a core play in this field.

 Also fading: Daniel Berger and Jason Kokrak

Spades’ Fade of the Week:

Patrick Reed (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)

“Everyone else seems to be hanging out with friends outthere, having a good time – but he’s probably just by himself, miserable. I’veseen snapchats of golfers in groups out in the city to eat sushi, but not him.”– Mark “Spades” Spada

Oh man, Spades! That’s so mean — and incredibly appropriate for a guy who hates his own family and is universally loathed on tour. Those sentiments also remind me of one of my favorite Neil Young songs, which I just listened to last night on vinyl.

Reed says he’s “thrived” since committing to more feel and embracing his fundamentally unsound golf swing. He’s gone T36–T15–T4 on the European Tour and has been playing okay, but I think he’s out of his element on this course.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup:

P. Casey ($10,100)

T. Fleetwood ($9,800)

T. Finau ($9,200)

S. Lowry ($8,000)

J.T. Poston ($6,600)

C.T. Pan ($6,200)

PGA DFS – Sample DK Cash lineup:

J. Thomas ($11,800)

S. Im ($8,800)

R. Moore ($7,800)

C. Reavie ($7,400)

A. Putnam ($7,400)

K. Streelman ($6,700)

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PGA DFS Picks: The CJ CUP

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’ll explore some of the top golfers in the CJ CUP focusing on closers who can finish in the Top 10.

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Quick Course Notes:

  • Course: The Club at Nine Bridges (Par: 72 – Yardage: 7,184 – Greens: Bentgrass)
  • The Club at Nine Bridges is on Jeju Island – 60 miles south of mainland South Korea and hosts the CJ Cup for the third consecutive year.
  • No-cut event featuring 78 golfers.
  • Wind could be a factor this week.
  • Top stats we’ll focus on are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par 5s Gained, Scrambling & Strokes Gained: Approach

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $10K and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400, FD $11,900) – He won here last year and this course sets up perfectly for him – especially since we can remove the variables of a slow start. Koepka checks all the boxes and can handle adverse conditions anywhere in the world. Even if he’s not hitting fairways, he’s an excellent scrambler with patience and the ability to get strokes back in a hurry.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,700, FD $12,000) – If you don’t play Koepka, you should play Thomas, who won here in 2017. He’s been incredibly steady lately with nothing worse than Top 12 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a T4 at the Safeway Open a few weeks ago. Taking Koepka & Thomas leaves you with $6,725 per golfer on DK in a studs-and-scrubs approach, and I’ll be building more than a couple lineups this way with no cut looming over the scrubs.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,300, FD $10,900) – Pairing Koepka with Fleetwood leaves us $7,075 per golfer, and the Englishman’s form is solid – with a T5 at the Alfred Dunhill Links championship in late September. He’s currently fifth on the European Tour in GIR and sixth in scoring average, and he ranked 12th in SG: Off the Tee in 2019. I might have some GPPs with just Fleetwood ($7,940 per the remaining five golfers), or Koepka ($7,720 per the remaining five) among the elite picks and go for a more balanced approach with the remaining five golfers.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,100) – Matsuyama is the weakest golfer of these elite picks, and his form isn’t great (three MC in his last eight starts). But with no cut, maybe he can find his game and use his strengths (power/ball-striking combo and precision approaches) to dominate Nine Bridges, where he debuted with a T18 last year.

Also consider: Colliin Morikawa, Victor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $8K to $10K):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,700, FD $10,300) – There’s probably not a harder working golfer around, and Im’s packed schedule certainly keeps him busy. But the top-ranked South Korean national hasn’t missed a cut since The Open Championship and he finished in second place at Sanderson Farms in mid-September. He took a rare but much-needed week at the Shriner’s after a T49 at the Safeway, and his recharged batteries could provide a nice narrative if he can contend at home.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,100, FD $9,800) – We’re getting Garcia in excellent form, at a considerable discount from some of his European peers, and without a cut – a consequential footnote considering his predilection for poor behavior and insane blowups. While he failed to advance to the BMW Championship during the recent FedEx Cup Playoffs, he has since posted a Top 25 at the Omega European Masters, won the KLM Open on the European Tour in mid-September and most recently finished T7 in the Spanish Open.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,600, FD $10,100) – Garcia isn’t the only Spaniard we have to watch in this tourney. RCB has improved on a couple of key stats recently (GIR and SG: Putting), and he arrives in good form after a solo second in the Spanish Open a couple weeks ago. He’s also nabbed a T11 and T3 at the CJ CUP. I worry that he’s not the best closer, but there’s a good chance at a Top 10 finish and if he fits, I’ll use him.

Matthew Wolff (DK $8,800, FD $9,300) – Wolff is a star on the rise with a big, quirky swing that belies a balanced game and interesting fit to this golf course. He’s making his debut here, but he finished T10 at the Safeway Open and should benefit from the no-cut structure and he might improve each day he plays this stunning layout.

Chez Reavie (DK $8,300, FD $9,200) – Reavie might get chalky at his affordable price, but if he’s not, I’ll have some exposure. He’s got two Top 15s here but missed the cut at the Shriner’s – something I’m hoping the game log watchers buy into.

Also consider: Danny Willett, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton, Kevin Na (GPP only)

Value PGA DFS (DK $8K and under):

Pat Perez (DK $7,500, FD $8,900) – While he initially cited his last-minute WD from the Houston Open as due to a wrist injury, he later clarified that he just wanted to get a head start ion arriving in Korea for this personal favorite (where he earned a T5 in 2017 and T7 in 2018). He gained entry on a sponsor exemption and I’m counting on lower ownership than his course fit (and obvious value) would suggest, because some folks got burned by his WD last week.

Jazz Janewattananond (DK $7,000, FD $8,100) – One of the best Asian golfers who also plays events on the Euro tour, Jazz sits atop the Asian Tour’s Order of Merit with two wins, and he’s posted an incredible 17 top-six finishes worldwide in the last 12 months, including victories at the 2019 SMBC Singapore Open and 2019 Kolon Korea Open.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,900, FD $8,700) – Sabbatini is among my favorite GPP options on Bentgrass, as his putting improves considerably on that surface. He’s among the best in the field in Par 4 Scoring and Birdies or Better Gained on courses that feature Bentgrass greens and he’s coming off a T10 at the Italian Open.

Joel Dahmen (DK$7,100, FD $8,200) – He finished T9 at the Shriners two weeks ago and performed well in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and par-4 scoring. While Dahmen placed T29 in his debut at Nine Bridges last year and remains a longshot to win, his stats models trend up for this course, and he’s a value option that I’ll have some exposure to in the hopes he can nab a top 10 finish.

Also consider: Ian Poulter, Abraham Ancer & Sung Kang (GPP only)

The Fades:

Jason Day (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – The former world No. 1 (seems like ages ago, doesn’t it) enters the week ranked 27rd in OWGR, and it’s been a tough descent to watch, as I’m a huge fan. He tied for fifth last year and 11th the year before, so he could garner higher ownership than his form warrants.

Gary Woodland (DK $9,400, $10,200) – 2019 was a big year for Woodland, who was the runner-up to Koepka last season before he snagged his impressive U.S. Open victory. He’s still got some upside, but there’s something missing from his game and he’ll get lots of ownership because of last year’s finish at this venue.

Spades’ Fade of theWeek:

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,000, FD $10,600) – “He’s a self-destructing crybaby who only knows how to putt, and he hasn’t played this year yet.” – Mark “Spades” Spada 

Yep. I’m right there with you, Spades. It’s been a while since he finished 37th at the BMW Championship and was eliminated from the FedExCup playoffs, and the only thing that scares me is the no-cut aspect, because a fellow who relies this heavily on his putter has MC-equity I can dig.

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