The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**
***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***
Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)
Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.
Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.
****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****
Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.
Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.
Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.
Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.
Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.
Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.
Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?
Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.
Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.
Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.
*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****
Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)
******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Travelers Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 22%)
Rory McIlroy $11,200 (M6, 13%)
I have no problem with Justin Thomas as he’s my #1 ranked player this week. For me its a player pool construction exclusion only and JT will be the player I fear the most come Thursday.
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M8, 15%) – Cantlay is making his debut since the break at the Travelers Championship. I’m assuming he would be priced in the 10K range if he had played prior. He has great tournament history with back to back T15. His absence is a bit worrisome but being an elite player, I hope he can shake the rust off quickly.
Collin Morikawa $9,100 (MT9, 19%) – Morikawa flamed out in the last round at the RBC Heritage but that doesn’t seem to bother anyone. His ownership is at his cap and perhaps should be pushed to cash game consideration. I guy I ALWAYS roster, this week won’t be any different.
Xander Schauffele $9,600 (M14, 13%) – If you followed me in the discord last week or on twitter, Schauffele cost me a $555 ticket. No hard feelings though and he’s back on the team. Top 10 odds to win and is at sub 15% ownership, is more then ideal.
Patrick Reed $8,700 (M4, 12%) – Reed burned a lot of people last week by missing the cut, including myself. Tie that with the fact a lot of chalk is in the upper 8K range, it’s no surprise of his low ownership. Reed is top ten in recent form, tournament history and hole performance. I feel there is a big bounce back for Reed and possibly a win.
Gary Woodland $8,300 (M9T, 15%) – Woodland hasn’t done anything spectacular at the Travelers Championship but has made three straight cuts. Woodland almost made my cash game consideration. Combine the course history and recent form with his top 10 ball striking skills and its easy to see why he’s 15% owned.
Billy Horschel $7,300 (M28, 4%) – Horschel is coming in with top 25 stats in recent form (despite the MC last week), comp courses and ball striking. Horschel has the 21st best odds in Vegas despite being priced as the 35th golfer on DraftKings for the Travelers Championship.
Kevin Kisner $7,700 (M30, 4%) – Kisner came in around 18% owned last week and missed the cut on the number. This week people seem to be still resenting him with the sub 5% ownership. With a great short game, if Kisner can do some damage with his ball striking, watch out.
Scottie Scheffler $7,600 (M38, 14%) – Scheffler withdrew last week but before hand made three straight cuts with two top 30 finishes. Vegas loves him and that alone is why im breaking my Ownership/Pricing rules (Can be seen in the PGA Research Tab in Discord). As one of the top DK scorers in the field, I’ll take my chances.
Jason Day $7,500 (M37, 6%) – Getting a player like Day at such low ownership, always tickles my fancy. His current form is well…garbage. His tournament history though is with two back to back T15. Probably a better bet then DK play but you won’t need much to be overweight on the field.
Vaughn Taylor $6,500 (M15, 3%) – Four made cuts with a top 5 in 2019. Taylor started off strong last week, but couldn’t finish the same way over the weekend. A grinder with upside I would be surprised if Taylor doesn’t finish in the top 20 this week at the Travelers Championship.
Ryan Moore $6,900 (M21, 5%) – Moore does not have the greatest recent form like Day. Again though, when it comes to the tournament Moore has performed well. With 2 cuts out of three visits, those two weekends ended with top top 20s. At the price he helps getting the more expensive players in your lineup and comes with upside.
I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more. These ownership numbers are reflective of bigger tournaments and will most certainly be higher in Cash / SE games.
Last week they went 6/6 making the cut. Lets see if we can do it again for the Travelers Championship.
Abraham Ancer $9.000 (M20, 21%)
Paul Casey $8,900 (M3, 18%)
Sungjae Im $8,600 (M22, 21%)
Sergio Garcia $8,500 (M32, 14%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M35, 16%)
Marc Leishman $8,000 (M26, 16%)
Victor Hovland $7,800 (M16, 22%)
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Travelers Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open.
Course: Riviera CC ( Pacific Palisades, CA )
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu
Greens: Poa
Past five winners: ’19 JB. Holmes (-14), ’18 B. Watson (-12), ’17 D. Johnson (-17), ’16 B. Watson (-15), ’15 J. Hahn (-6)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.
Since the 1999 season, the Genesis Open is played at the Riveria Country club. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is -12 with a high of -17 and a low of -6. Twelve of the last twenty rounds have rated as a difficult score. Let’s look at some of the top golfers over the last 24 rounds and how they’ve fared with difficult scoring.
The fairways at the Genesis Open are more narrow than tour average, with this in mind we’ll want to focus on golfers who are sharp ball-strikers (like most weeks). Below are the top ten golfers over the last 24 rounds.
Strokes gained putting tends to be a high correlation to success here. Golfers who can perform well on Poa greens could gain an edge on this tough course. The illustration here shows the top golfers over the last 24 rounds.
Here are the golfers that have performed well under all three conditions listed above.
At the Genesis Open, most of the toughest holes and a few of the easiest holes are the Par 4 450 – 500 yards. Looking for golfers that excel in this range will be a nice spot to start. Between the Par 3s and the longer holes on the Riviera CC, the long irons will play a huge role. Look for golfers that play well between 175 – 200 yards in proximity.
With the smaller greens, GIR should play a big part. For those that miss the greens in regulation, they’ll need to be able to scramble to save par. As usual, Opportunity Gained will be part of the model but unlike most weeks I’m leaning more bogey avoidance over birdie or better.
Here are the combined stats from up above which will represent the golfers below when they’re evenly weighted.
Looking for players that have played the course before should be a priority. I’m not saying new timers cannot do well, but according to Datagolf the Riviera CC plays only behind Augusta for course history relevance.
Course Setup
Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens
Player Efficiencies
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
The proximity between 175 – 200 yards
GIR
Scrambling
Opportunity Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Genesis Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stat Source: Fantasy National
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