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Carolina Hurricanes

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and Fanduel (Dec 30)

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot, where I’ll go through the top NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Saturday and that means we have ourselves a nice-sized slate of NHL DFS. Tonight, the NHL schedule makers have blessed us with a very manageable 7 games. While it’s manageable, it’s a tough slate on paper as there are really only 2-3 games that have blowout potential per Vegas. We have a bunch of teams battling that are close in the standings.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money!

NHL DFS Goalies

Jake Allen vs. Florida Panthers

If you’ve followed my writings, you know that the one thing I love to do is chase cheap goaltending. Tonight will be no different as I’m going to be chasing Jake Allen tonight. Allen hasn’t played much over the last few weeks, just 2 games to be exact. In those 2 games, however, he’s been very solid with a .938 save % and just a 2.01 GAA. Those are great numbers, and they’re even better when you factor in his $7k price tag.

Is he a sure thing? Very far from it. The Florida Panthers are a dynamic offense that can score in bunches. Just take last night against the Rangers for instance as they scored 4 against Quick. That said, they played a tough one last night and could be a little tired tonight. I’m willing to take the chance with a $7k goaltender this evening. He’s best reserved for GPP’s.

Joel Hofer vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Staying with the theme of cheap goaltending, I’m going to bring Joel Hofer into my bin of goaltenders tonight. He too checks off some boxes for me. He’s cheap and playing extremely well right now. Over the last 3 weeks, Hofer has played in 3 games. He’s posted a .966 save % and has allowed just 1.22 goals per game. For a goaltender that’s just $7.1k tonight on DK, those are exceptional numbers.

Like Allen, he doesn’t come without risks this evening. Pittsburgh is playing some of their best hockey of the season as they’ve gone 3-1-1 over their last 5, while scoring 3.2 goals per game. Something working in Hofer’s favor though is that they are also taking around 32 shots per game. That means he’ll have a great chance of returning value in this one. He’s also best reserved for GPP’s.

Other goalies: Pyotr Kochetkov and Anthony Stolarz

NHL DFS Stacks – Main

Pittsburgh 1 (Crosby, Guentzel, Rakell) vs. St. Louis Blues

If you aren’t playing Hofer in net tonight, I highly recommend the top line for Pittsburgh tonight. Vegas has Pittsburgh currently at 3.6 goals tonight and that trails only Florida. The Blues have been about average of late as they’ve allowed 3 goals per game over the last couple of weeks. Nothing awful, but this shows that the Penguins can squeak a few by the Blues tonight in this one.

This top line for Pittsburgh has been playing great. Over their last 3 games, they have combined to score 3 goals and have also played pretty strong defensively. They also have a very strong 47 SATF over those 3 games. Only a few lines playing tonight have stronger numbers than them. The player I’ll be building around first in this line will be Jake Guentzel. He’s been the top player as he’s scored 3 and helped on another 3 over his last 5 games. He also has a very strong 23-scoring chances over those 5. He has upside at his $7.6 salary tonight.

Next up I’ll either go full stack with deploying Crosby and Rakell. Rakell’s price tag of just $3.8k tonight will make it much easier to go full stack and that’s how I’m trending right now. Both Rakell and Crosby have very similar numbers over their last 5, making it easier to make the full stack viable. 18 scoring chances over 5 games for a guy that’s below $4k is very strong.

Carolina 1 (Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Vegas has this game fairly close, with the Maple Leafs having a slight edge in goals with 3.4 for them vs. 3.3 for the Hurricanes. I just don’t see it. I see Carolina taking this one tonight with ease. The Maple Leafs are coming off a brutal loss last night to the Blue Jackets in 6-5 OT thriller. They are just not a good defensive team. Over the last 2 weeks, they’ve averaged giving up over 4 goals per game. That’s horrendous, and it very much brings the Hurricanes into play tonight.

My lean right now is this top line for Carolina. They’ve been good over the last 3 games, scoring a combined 3 goals. If we go out a little further, we have to love what we see out of Svechnikov as he has 5 goals and 3 assists over his last 5 games. He’s also been taking on average 3 shots on net per game. He’ll be my core to this Hurricanes stack as his price tag of $5.2 is very fair this evening.

The leader of this line though is Sebastion Aho. He’s been marvelous over his last 5 games. No player skating tonight has more points over their last 5 games than Aho as he has 12 points over those 5. It’s mostly been assists as he has 10 over those 5 games. With his recent production, his $7.2k price tag is also very fair. I may just go in a 2-man stack on this one as Teravainen doesn’t bring much in the way of fantasy production. You could easily bring in someone like Bunting to make it more of a power play stack and he’s also significantly cheaper at just $3.6k.

Other stacks I like tonight:

New Jersey 1 vs. Boston (this Boston team has some holes in their D)

Boston 1 vs. New Jersey

Florida 1 and 2 vs. Montreal

Toronto 1 vs. Carolina

LA 1 and 2 vs. Edmonton

Edmonton 1 vs. LA

Value D

Matt Roy – $3.9k

Mattias Ekholm – $4k

Hampus LIndholm – $3.2k

Erik Cerniak – $2.7k

NHL DFS Summary

This is a tough slate tonight and one that I would recommend taking it lightly. With DK contests on the lower end, it’s a night to not go crazy with your bankroll. Both the top lines for Pittsburgh and Carolina fit perfectly tonight if you’re willing to roll out some value D tonight. I will be. Join me for the ride.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

1 year ago 0 comments

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel (Feb. 25)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Saturday Slapshot. We have a nice-sized 8-game slate of NHL DFS tonight. This slate brings us some extreme mismatches, which means we have some really big opportunities for points tonight.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

NHL DFS Goaltending

Adin Hill vs. Dallas Stars – Yes, we’re going to pick on the Dallas Stars with goaltending until they fight their way out of the slump. Their offense is all but non-existent right now. Over the last 2 weeks, the Stars have mustered just 8 goals in their last 5 games. That’s just awful. Adin Hill has played reasonably well and should be back tonight after missing a couple of games with an undisclosed injury. With him being less than $8k on DK tonight, I like his chances of returning value for us.

Linus Ullmark vs. Vancouver Canucks – This is one of the bigger mismatches we’ll see all season. We have a Boston Bruins team that may set records for wins and points this season vs. a Canucks team that is already on head coach number 2 for the year. Ullmark has been exceptional this season and is one of the leading candidates for the Vezina trophy. He has somewhat of a limited ceiling tonight but should easily get the W. He’s a great goalie for Cash games tonight.

NHL DFS Stacks

Carolina 1 (Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov) + Burns vs. Anaheim

I suspect that even on a large slate tonight, Carolina is going to be extremely popular and the overwhelming chalk. Anaheim has just been horrendous defensively and giving up goals in troves. Over the last 2 weeks, the Ducks are giving up over 5.4 goals per game, more than 19 high-danger chances per game, and over 46 shots on goal per game. There’s really no other way to say it, they are historically bad.

This top line for Carolina has been one of the better lines in hockey over the last 10 games. Only a handful of lines have scored more goals than them. My priority here is going to be Svechnikov and Jarvis. Jarvis has 5 goals over his last 5 games and is just $4.5k on DK tonight. He’s the cheapest of the bunch. Between the 2 of these guys, we’re glook

New Jersey 1 (Mercer, Hischier, Tatar) + Hamilton vs. Philly

Nothing brings me more joy than picking on a Philadelphia team. Tonight, we’ll be picking on the Flyers. What started out solidly for the Flyers this year has essentially been a disastrous year. Over the last 2 weeks, the Flyers are just 1-5-1 and are giving up more than 4 goals per game. Their goaltending has been horrendous as they have just an 84.38 save percentage. Against a more than competent Devils team, that’s not going to cut it.

We’re going to lock in Dawson Mercer here. Mercer is playing some of the best hockey of his young career right now. He has a 5-game goal-scoring streak. Over those 5 games, he has 7 goals to lead this Devils’ offense. I’ll prioritize getting Nico Hischier with him tonight. Hischier has also been playing extremely well of late, with 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games. Can Mercer extend his streak tonight? I’m banking on it in a plus matchup.

Chicago 1 (Kane, Domi, Kurashev) + Jones vs. San Jose

This line almost got me a takedown tonight and I’ll continue to play them until they slow down. With a matchup against the Sharks tonight, they should continue with their solid play. Obviously, with all the trade rumors swirling around we’ll need to keep a close eye on the Blackhawks lineup as Kane very well could be scratched at any moment.

I said it the other day and I’ll say it again tonight, Patrick Kane is playing like the Patrick Kane of old. Over his last 5 games, Kane has 7 goals and 3 assists for 10 points. He’s bringing his A game in what is most likely his last few games in a Blackhawks sweater. His linemate Max Domi has been laying just as well. Domi has 3 goals and 8 assists in his last 5. These 2 have been exceptional and that should continue tonight vs. the Sharks.

Other Stacks: Ott 1 and 2, Mtl 1, NJ 2, Bos 1 and 2, TB 1, Det 1

NHL DFS Top Value Defenseman

Simon Benoit – $2.8k on DK
Josh Manson – $3.2k on Dk
Bowen Byram – $4.1k on DK
Caleb Jones – $3k on DK

Summary

We have a fun day of NHL DFS in store. This slate has some extreme mismatches and we should see a healthy amount of goals tonight.

Make sure to use our Projection model when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL Premium

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Jan. 29)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL DFS slate on Fanduel and DraftKings. Tonight we have a smaller than usual 6 game slate.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Jacob Markstrom ($8.1k DK/$8.4k FD) vs. Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks season has been quite the rollercoaster. They started out miserably which caused the Canucks higher-ups to change coaches. After Boudreau came aboard, they went on a nice roll. Now, well they’re back to being the Canucks we saw at the start of the year. The Canucks offense has not been scoring of late. Over the last month, they are scoring just 2.42 goals per game while putting over 31 shots per game on net.

With those numbers, we know there’s upside in Markstrom tonight. While his last outing was a bit of a struggle, he’s been pretty solid over his last 8 games as he has a .909 save % and just a 2.76 GAA. I’m more than likely locking Markstrom into my goalie 1 spot tonight if he draws the start.

Karel Vejmelka ($7.6k DK/$7k FD) vs. Buffalo Sabres – If not paying up for Markstrom tonight, I’m going to go with Vejmelka tonight. This is a high-risk/high reward type of pick. So if you’re averse to risk, go with Markstrom. Vejmelka has shown some serious upside at the NHL level this season due to the poor defense in front of him. The Coyotes have been giving up over 36 shots per game over the last month. That equates to a ton of opportunity for Vejmelka.

The good thing for us and the reason I’m going here tonight is due to the fact that Buffalo just doesn’t score much. They’ve been averaging just 2.42 goals per game over the last month. Of the teams on tonight’s slate, only Montreal is worse. They have a sub 9% shooting percentage and that makes this pick even more appealing to me.

Another guy that piques my interest a bit is Mikko Koskinen ($8.2k DK/$7.9k FD) vs. Montreal Canadiens. This game is going to be a battle of who is worse tonight. We’ll get to Edmonton in my stacks section, but we have to remember that Edmonton has been extremely poor over the last month or so. Montreal has been absolutely awful this year and we can attack them with goalies. Does a poor offense outweigh a poor defense? We’ll see tonight!

Stacks

Edmonton 2 (Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, Warren Foegele) + Duncan Keith

It’s been quite a while since I recommended or stacked the Oilers. That changes tonight. Montreal is epically bad this year. Through 42 games, they have just 23 points. While Cayden Primeau may eventually be a good goalie in the NHL, he’s not there yet and it certainly doesn’t help when you have an extremely poor defense in front of you. Over the last month, the Canadiens are giving up almost 40 shots per game and almost 15 high danger chances. That’s just awful.

My core with this stack will be Draisaitl and Puljujarvi. Between the 2 of them, they have 25 high danger chances over their last 5 games and 44 scoring chances. Puljujarvi’s 15 high danger chances lead the team over the last 5 games and he comes in at just $4k on DK tonight. If you look at his production over his last 5 it’s been nill. Positive regression catches up with him tonight. This pairing is going to cost us just $12.4k tonight. Let everyone else flock to McDavid (also a great play) tonight. I’m going with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi.

Carolina 2 (Trocheck, Svechnikov, Necas) + Slavin

The New Jersey Devils will more than likely have Jon Giles in net tonight. While he hasn’t been awful, he’s giving up more than 3 goals per game over his 5 starts. The Devils as a whole have been giving up more than 3.5 goals per game over the past month so we know there’s going to be some opportunity for scoring from the Hurricanes tonight.

My lean here is their second line and I’ll try my hardest to fit in Svechnikov tonight. He’s been extremely solid over his last 5 games as he has 8 points. He leads the Hurricanes over that stretch in scoring chances as well as shots. My plan here will be to pair him with Trocheck. The two of them have been playing well together and should be able to take advantage of the Devils tonight.

Toronto 2 (Tavares, Mikheyev, Marner)

This Maple Leafs offense may be one of the most powerful in the NHL. They have 2 top lines that are stacked. Tonight, I’ll be going with their second line as it’s been producing a ton of points. Over their last 5 games, Tavares and Marner have combined for 11 points, 21 high danger chances, and 44 scoring chances. They are clicking and get a great match up tonight vs. a Red Wings team that has been giving up some goals recently.

Over the last month, they are giving up close to 3.5 goals per game. That’s a number that we can absolutely target and we will tonight. In net for Detroit tonight should be Nedeljkovic. Over his last 8 games he has a 3.02 GAA and a -.26 GSAA. Over his last 3 games, teams have scored 12 goals against him. Let’s pick on him tonight!

Other stacks (Edm 1, Ari 1 and 2, TB 1, CGY 1, TBL 1)

Top Defenseman

Duncan Keith
Darnell Nurse
Rasmus Andersson
Moritz Seider
Victor Hedman
Christopher Tanev
Alex Pietrangelo
Damon Severson

Summary

Even though tonight’s a smaller than normal Saturday night NHL slate, it should still be a fun one. We have a game between Edmonton and Montreal that has the potential to be a 6-5 game. While I didn’t specifically mention them in my stacks, Calgary should get back on track tonight against the Canucks. That top line of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Lindholm has been one of the best in the NHL of late and should do well tonight.

Make sure to use our optimizer when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 1)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL DFS slate on Fanduel and DraftKings. Today we have a split slate. A 5 game slate starting at 1 pm EST, and then a 4 game slate at 7 pm EST that includes this year’s NHL Winter Classic.

Goaltending – Early Slate

Linus Ullmark ($8.3k DK/$8k FD) vs. Buffalo Sabres – Ullmark is a bit more than I typically spend on a goalie, but the spot this afternoon is just too much to pass up. Coming out of the extended Christmas break, the Sabres have only scored 4 goals in 2 games. The 2 goals per game are pretty much in line with the whole month of December as they averaged just 2.1 goals per game in 10 games played.

Ullmark has played pretty sparingly this season, but when he’s played he’s been pretty good. In the 6 games he’s played since November 20, he’s been under 15 DK points just once. In those 6 games, he has 2 games over 30 DK points. I can easily envision him getting around the 25 point mark tonight against one of the more low-powered offenses in the NHL.

Sergei Bobrovsky ($8.5k DK/$8.5k FD) vs. Montreal Canadiens – Like Ullmark, Bobrovsky is in the salary range I tend to stay away from. That said, he too is in just a great spot. In the month of December, the Canadiens scored just 1.67 goals per game in their 9 contests.

Bobrovsky hasn’t been overly sharp this year. He’s given up at least 3 goals in all but 3 contests this year. This is a great bounce-back spot for him though with how poorly the Canadiens have been.

Ilya Sorokin ($7.5k DK/$8.4k FD) vs. Edmonton Oilers – I like this play much better on DK than FD and this is strictly a GPP play as Edmonton can score goals in bunches. It’s not safe by any means. Sorokin has quietly put together a very solid season. On the year he has a 2.49 GAA and a .926 save percentage.

If we look at his season as a whole, he’s had one dud and that was all the way back on November 16 vs. the Panthers. He scored under 13 DK points just once in the month of December. This is the Oilers third road game in 4 days and I expect to see some tired legs out of them. Sorokin is a risky play this afternoon, but he’s been solid all year and we aren’t paying an arm and a leg for him.

Stacks – Early Slate

Carolina 1 (Aho/Niederreiter/Teravainen) + Slavin

Columbus is one of my favorite teams to stack against when playing NHL DFS. They’ve been giving up goals in droves this season. During the month of December, their opponents scored more than 3.5 goals per game against them. A lot of this has been due to how poorly defensively they’ve been playing. No team on the early slate gave up more high danger chances per game in December than the Blue Jackets at 12.67. Giving up that many high-quality chances is just asking for trouble.

With the Hurricanes healthy post their covid outbreak, they’re back to being a high-powered offense. This trio is where the offense starts. Of the 4 goals the Hurricanes scored on Thursday, 3 came from this line, and the line combined for 5 total points. They should have no problem replicating that today against a poor defensive team. My favorites on this line are Niederreiter and Teravainen as they are the cheaper parts to it. Over $8k for Aho is a lot, but if you can afford it, go for it.

Florida Power Play 1 (Barkov/Duclair/Huberdeau/Reinhart/Weegar)

No team has given up more power-play goals in the NHL this season than the Montreal Canadiens. They are currently tied with the Canucks with 31 power-play goals against. The majority of this power-play unit plays together on the second line so if you want to save some money, you can certainly cut out Barkov.

My preferences here with forwards are Duclair and Huberdeau. Duclair has 3 goals in his last 4 games and Huberdeau has 7 points in 5 games. The two of them plus Weegar should be able to put up some damage today.

Islanders 2 (Pageau/Beauvillier/Dal Colle) + Dobson

I’ve given 2 pretty high-priced stacks in Carolina and Florida. Although I love the Islanders’ first line, we need to find some salary savings. We can get that with the second line of the Islanders today. I love the Oilers. They have 2 of the best players in the NHL on their team. That said, they are awful defensively. During the month of December, they gave up 3.73 goals per game. That’s top of any team on this afternoon slate. It’s bad, very bad.

This second line should get Beauvillier back today as he cleared Covid protocols yesterday. This season has been a bit of a struggle for Beauvillier and Pageau as they have combined for just 9 goals this season. That said, they’re in a great matchup today and one of these guys should be able to put the puck in the back of the net.

Other stacks (Bos 1, NYI 1, Car 2, Fla 1, Edm 1, Nash 1)

Top Defenseman

Noah Dobson
Mackenzie Weegar
Jacob Slavin
David Savard
Jake McCabe
Charlie McAvoy
Darnell Nurse

Evening Slate Notes

I’m not as big of a fan of the evening slate as I am with the early slate. That said, I love hockey and will probably still throw in a lineup. With goaltending, we shouldn’t get fancy. He’ll be highly owned, but Thatcher Demko is playing amazing right now. He’s won 8 of his last 9 contests and in that stretch, he’s given up 2 goals or less 7 times. Don’t overthink this one, even though he’ll be very popular.

In terms of stacks for tonight, look no farther than the LA Kings as they get to take on Martin Jones and the Flyers. The majority of the offense with the Kings comes from their top line of Kopitar, Iafallo, and Kempe. You’ll also want a piece of Matt Roy if you are playing the Kings. He’s still priced under $5k on DK which does seem like it’s a bit low for his production of late.

I’ll also want to grab a piece of the NHL’s Winter Classic between the Wild and the Blues. This should be a fun game as both offenses have been pretty good of late. You could make a case for a game stack here. For St Louis, their second line is where I always start. Robert Thomas is back and is still at just $3.7k on DK. I love pairing him with Tarasenko tonight.

On the Wild side of things, I’d go Hartman and Kaprizov. The only concern though is they are very pricey. A cheap way to get some extra exposure to them is to pair them with Alex Goligoski. He plays with them on the top power-play unit and is also on the top defensive unit. His cost is only $3,300 and has been producing of late. He’s been under 10 DK points just once in his last 4.

When setting NHL lineups today, make sure you are using our optimizer.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Oct. 23)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot. I’m Jared and I’ll be your host. Tonight we have a solid 10 game slate where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL slate on Fanduel and Draftkings.

Before we dive in I want to highlight some terms you’ll see in my article:

Corsi – Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout
Even Strength – Play where both teams have the same number of players (including goalies) on the ice. Includes 5v5, 4v4, 3v3
Power Play – Play where the team has more players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3
Penalty Kill – Play where the team has fewer players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 4v5, 3v4, 3v5

Goaltending

Thomas Greiss ($7.2k DK/$7k FD) vs. Montreal Canadiens – Greiss is the projected starter for the Red Wings and if he does indeed get the nod between the pipes I’m all in. The Canadiens have been brutal to start to the year as they are still yet to find the win column. Through their first 5 games they’ve only managed to score 3 even strength goals. In Greiss we have a goaltender who’s look solid in his first two outings with a .969 save % and just a 1 GAA.

Frederik Andersen ($8.1k DK/$7.8k FD) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets – Through his first 3 starts on the year Andersen has looked extremely sharp. He’s been averaging 30 saves per game and has a .938 save %. With Cam Atkins no longer on the squad, this Blue Jackets team is nowhere near as scary as they used to be.

They’ve been averaging less than 2 even strength goals per game in their 4 first games and if the Hurricanes can stay out of the penalty box I don’t see any reason why Anderson won’t keep up his string of solid starts. I do like his price quite a bit better on FD than DK, but he’s a solid play on both.

Jordan Binnington ($8.5k DK/$7.5k FD) vs. Los Angeles Kings – While he’s playable on DK, this is more of a FD play tonight since he’s $1k cheaper there. Binnington gets an extremely solid match up tonight. After the Kings exploded for 6 goals on opening, they’ve only been able to muster 5 goals in their last 3 games. Binnington is coming off his best start of the year in which he saved 42 of the 43 shots that the Vegas Knights had. Look for Binnington to post another strong performance tonight.

Stacks

Carolina 2 (Andrei Svechnikov/Vincent Trocheck/Martin Necas)

Svechnikov has been rolling to start the year. Through just 3 games he has 4 goals and 5 points. Him and his line mates get a great match up tonight vs. a Blue Jackets team that has been challenged to start the year. The Blue Jackets have a Corsi % of 45% (really want to be above 50%) at even strength to start the year. They’re giving up way more shot attempts than they taking themselves.

Another way to get exposure to the Hurricanes tonight is to go with their PP1. You can drop Necas and add in either Sebastian Aho or Tony DeAngelo. Any way you slice it, I really like the Hurricanes chances of putting up a big number tonight and it’s all going to start with Svechnikov. He’s your Hurricanes lock and you’ll want to build around him.

Detroit PP1 (Dylan Larkin/Tyler Bertuzzi/Nick Leddy/Lucas Raymond)

I focused on the Canadiens struggles scoring goals above, now I’m going to focus on their inability to keep the puck out of the net. Through their first 5 games the Canadiens have given up 8 power play goals. Their penalty kill has been atrocious and I really want to attack it. Bertuzzi, Larkin, and Raymond all play together at even strength and on the power play.

Those that hang out in discord know my affinity for Raymond. He scored his first goal of his career the other night and I love his chances of adding to that total tonight. This trio is going to be a ton of fun to watch this year and they get a soft match up tonight. On DK, I’m probably going to fade Bertuzzi and play Leddy because $7.6k is just a bit more than I’d like to pay for him. On FD though, Bertuzzi is just $4.9k and is a must play in my eyes.

Vancouver 1 (Elias Pettersson/JT Miller/Brock Boeser)

Of all the teams playing tonight, no team has given up more high danger chances at even strength than the Seattle Kraken. They’ve given up 11 through their first 5 games. They’ve also given up a ton of scoring chances through those 5 as their opponents have had more than 23 scoring chances per game. In comparison a team like the Predators is only giving up 18 per game.

My favorite pieces of this stack are Pettersson and Miller. The two of them have combined for 29 shots this season and 13 high danger scoring chances. With the Kraken’s propensity to give up high danger chances and their ability to get those some types of chances, I really like their chances find the back of the net multiple times tonight.

Other stacks (Islanders PP1, Florida Panthers 1, Arizona Coyotes 1, St. Louis Blues 1)

Value Defenseman

Sean Walker – Averaging more than 20 minutes per game on the ice. Has averaged more than 4 shots + blocks per game and is also seeing power play time

Erik Cernak – Isn’t seeing power play time, but is on the nice for more than 20 minute per game. Also averaging more than 4 shots + blocks per game.

Brett Pesce – Has played 23, 23, and 22 minutes in 3 games so far. Last game had 5 blocks. Love playing guys that have no regard for their bodies and willing to block that many shots

Brady Skjei – The ex Rangers defenseman has been putting in the work this year. 20 minutes of ice time per game. Averaging multiple shots + blocks per game.

Summary

We have a great slate tonight with 10 games on top. The Hurricanes and Red Wings are my favorite spots for offense tonight. Both teams should put up a big number. While I didn’t mention the Maple Leafs they get a great match up tonight, especially if Casey DeSmith is between the pipes.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Playoff Preview (First Round). A little different than my daily game pick articles. The NHL Playoffs are finally here! After a grueling 56-game season we are down to 16 teams. With the nuances of scheduling this year, each team will have a mini bracket within their division and then each team who makes it out of their division will be re-seeded for the Final 4. Not too many surprises with who made the playoffs. Here are the 16 teams who will be playing in the First Round:

We have some great First Round matchups. I will preview each series, post each series price and give my predictions. I will also keep a tracker for my entire slate of playoff bets, as I have some futures on who makes it out of their division, as well as who wins Lord Stanley. I will provide that info at the end as well as some general thoughts for betting the NHL Playoffs. Without further ado, let’s dive into the series.

East Division

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. #4 New York Islanders (+121)

Season Series: Penguins: 6-2-0, Islanders: 2-4-2

Preview: The Penguins sport the best home record in the league and have home-ice advantage in this series. They should be fully healthy with the returns of Malkin a few games ago and Tanev is projected to be ready for Game 1. The Penguins had a great season and are well deserved to be at the top of this division. The Islanders started of the season very nicely and were battling for first, but things unraveled for them after the Trade Deadline. The Penguins are known for their offense and the Islanders for their defense, but both teams can handle their own on the opposite spectrums as well. The Penguins are 2nd in GF over their last 20 games while the Islanders are 30th. The major X-factor right now is the health of Islanders’ top goaltender Seymon Varlamov. Sporting top-5 goaltending numbers this season, if he is unable to play than the Islanders will have to rely on Russian rookie Ilya Sorokin, who has decent numbers himself but not to the standard of Varlamov. Two teams trending in opposite directions leaves me no choice in my prediction.

Prediction: Penguins 4-1

#2 Washington Capitals (+118) vs. #3 Boston Bruins (-143)

Season Series: Capitals: 4-4-0, Bruins 4-2-2

Preview: What a series this should play out to be. We have the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions versus the 2019 Stanley Cup Runner-Ups. We have the return of Zdeno Chara who spent 14 seasons with Boston and was the longest-tenured captain in the league before signing with Washington as a free agent in the offseason. Each team won 4 matchups against the other this season. The Capitals surprisingly are an underdog in this series, and that must be attributed to Boston’s recent form. They have been a freight train after acquiring Hall, Reilly, and Lazar at the Trade Deadline. The Bruins could not score pretty much all season but then finally woke up the last month. The Caps meanwhile have been battling injury concerns to their star players and also had to deal with the Tom Wilson/Battle of New York saga. The Bruins have been rolling and have been in the top-10 in offensive metrics over their last 20 games. The thing with the Capitals is their underlying numbers were not that good but they could mitigate that with their scoring talent. However, recently the Capitals haven’t been able to do that. Goaltending is also interesting for both teams as the Capitals will roll with the inexperienced tandem of Samsanov/Vanacek, while the Bruins will probably start with Rask but rookie Swayman could make a case for deserving that net. With the Bruins rolling and actually low key dominating their season series with Washington analytically despite it being tied 4-4, I have no choice here.

Prediction: Bruins 4-2

Central Division

#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. #4 Nashville Predators (+190)

Season Series: Hurricanes: 6-2-0, Predators: 2-5-1

Preview: The Hurricanes have dominated this season series over Nashville winning 6 of 8. The Predators snuck into the playoffs on the curtails of Juuse Saros incredible goaltending. The Hurricanes offense has been rolling all season and there is no reason to see that slowing down here. A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series, no doubt. But Saros will need to stand on his head to steal this one from Carolina. Nashville held their own in their matchups against Carolina this year despite only winning 2 of 8. Hurricanes offense, defense, and special teams have been better all season. The only edge you can really give to Nashville is goaltending. And there is a chance Mrazek/Ned can get on a roll and even out that edge. I feel generous to say the Preds won’t roll Carolina, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.

Prediction: Hurricanes 4-2

#2 Florida Panthers (+116) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)

Season Series: Panthers: 5-2-1, Lightning: 3-5-0

Preview: The Battle of Florida. These teams do not like each other and this has the potential to be an absolute battle and best series of the first round. You could argue Tampa underperformed a little bit this year as the defending champs finishing 3rd in their division. But they were without their best player Nikita Kucherov all season and captain Steven Stamkos for the last 10 or so games. Kucherov is projected to be ready for the playoffs so we will see if he can come back right in stride or has some rust. The Panthers on the other hand had quite the season and outperformed expectations to a 2nd place finish in the division. A devastating blow to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad who sustained a season-ending injury with about 15 games to go. However Mackenzie Weegar has picked up the slack on the back end. Goaltending is where Tampa will display quite the edge with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts and probably Chris Dreidger in net for Florida, with Bobrovsky and rookie Spencer Knight there in case Dreidger falters. With the Lightning having some injury concerns and coming off a long cup run, I am going against the grain here.

Prediction: Panthers 4-3

North Division

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-275) vs. #4 Montreal Canadiens (+210)

Season Series: Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, Canadiens: 3-6-1

Preview: The Maple Leafs have been viewed as the favorites to make it out of the North Division since Day 1, and are actually the only team with minus odds (-135) to make it out of their division of the entire league. They will be squaring up with a Canadiens team that has been hot and cold all season. They started off really hot and people were even thinking they might be better than Toronto, then went ice cold and fired their coach, before finishing the season relatively strong. Defense is their specialty but they’ve had to deal with multiple injuries on the back end. It’s unclear if they will go with their most expensive asset (Carey Price) or the goaltender who has performed better this season (Jake Allen) for this series. Nothing would surprise me and could potentially see the Canadiens pulling an upset if they get hot, but the Leafs are definitely the stronger team and should take care of this series.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 4-2

#2 Edmonton Oilers (-186) vs. #3 Winnipeg Jets (+150)

Season Series: Oilers: 7-2-0, Jets 2-7-0

Preview: Two teams that are going in opposite directions. Behind the incredible season from Connor McDavid, Edmonton has had a strong end to the season. Winnipeg has been reeling behind all sorts of defensive problems all season, as well as an injury to their strongest winger in Nikolaj Ehlers. Luckily for Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goaltender in the league and the kind of goalie who can steal a series. The problem is the defense in front of him has been bad all year and towards the end of the season he had some games where he didn’t stand on his head. Oilers goalie Mike Smith has actually had quite a surprising season as a 39-year-old veteran on the last legs of his career. With the way McDavid and Draisaitl have been rolling all season, I cannot go against the best player(s) in the league.

Prediction: Oilers 4-2

West Division

#1 Colorado Avalanche (-335) vs. #4 St. Louis Blues (+255)

Season Series: Avalanche: 5-3-0, Blues: 3-5-0

Preview: The Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents’ Trophy winning Avalanche begin their Cup run against the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues. The Avs have probably the strongest and deepest team in the 16-team field this year. They’ve dealt with some COVID and injury issues all season but should be healthy rolling into playoffs. This is the biggest series discrepancy based on Vegas lines as well as my Model. The Blues have been inconsistent this season and Binnington hasn’t played to the level he did when they won the Cup in 2018. The addition of Krug in the offseason was supposed to cancel out the loss of Pietrangelo, but it hasn’t been that simple. The Avs are a wagon and even though the Blues have playoff experience, I will rely on the data and the models here.

Prediction: Avalanche 4-1

#2 Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+190)

Season Series: Golden Knights: 3-4-1, Wild: 5-1-2

Preview: Viewed as one of the favorites to win the Cup coming into the season, the Golden Knights have quite the draw in the First Round. Losing the top seed and Presidents’ Trophy with the Avs win last night, Vegas goes from playing a weaker St. Louis team to a young and exciting Minnesota team. To make matters even worse Minnesota has had Vegas’ number all season with only 1 regulation loss for Minnesota in 8 matchups. Vegas is deep at every position and will be interesting to see if they roll out Fluery or Lehner in net, both goalies are more than capable. Minnesota on the other side has been riding the coattails of exciting rookie Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov. With stronger than expected defensive and goaltending results they cruised to a 3rd place finish in the division and face a team they have matched up well against all season. There is definite series price value on Minnesota if you are looking for an upset to happen as there always is plenty in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I’m going to ride with the team I am confident can make a Cup run, but would not be surprised either way.

Prediction: Golden Knights 4-3

Current Bets and Notes

My approach for this playoff season is to ride a few Cup futures, bet some teams to make it out of their divisions, and then take any series or series spreads I think have some value. From there I might bet an individual game where I see value on a team or think the other team has a good chance to even the series. I really like taking the Game 1 loser in a series I think will be very evenly matched. I also may hedge some of my futures out if the opportunity presents itself (i.e. Vegas makes it to the Cup, take the other team to win the series and profit either way).

These are the futures I have so far, which will be updated as the playoffs roll on, and will also be on the Sports Betting Picks page:

Excited for the NHL Playoffs! Going to be a roller coaster of emotions with upsets and lots of things you won’t expect, which is what makes it the best sport on earth. Let’s ride this wave!!

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 27)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/27

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/27. The Model got absolutely obliterated last night. 0-4. An overtime loss, a one goal loss, and an over that miss by a half goal. The only bad L was the Ducks and that was only a half unit play for the value. It happens but it still stings. That is what happened when I take a weekend off, pretty sure it happened last month. It’s also that weird time of year when you can’t really tell what certain teams are playing for and those games have some risk (Sens last night). We move on to Tuesday, as always Trust the Process.

We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Flyers Money Line (-132) over the Devils
Flyers/Devils Over (6, -113)
Red Wings Money Line (+123) and Puck Line (+1.5, -220) over the Blue Jackets
Penguins Money Line (+100) over the Bruins
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, -120) and Money Line (-295) over the Sabres
Hurricanes Money Line (-125) over the Stars
Stars/Hurricanes Under (5.5, -117)

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. We are waiting for confirmation on goalies before we lock in the Preds/Panthers over. We are only taking it if we get a Bobrovsky/Rinne goaltending matchup.

My Picks

Islanders ML (+108): This one is pretty simple. These teams are relatively evenly matched at full-strength, but the Caps are without Ovi tonight. Yet for some reason the Isles are still plus money. The Isles have sputtered a little bit as of late, but Trotz always seems to coach against his former team well. They have lost 2 straight against them and I doubt they lose a 3rd. I think the Isles get it done tonight and with the plus money, we are getting some great value here.

Blackhawks/Lightning Over 5.5 (-130): The Lightning score a lot of goals and the Blackhawks are pretty good at giving them up. Getting this at the 5.5 makes me like this a lot, even if it is a little juicy. The Lightning are 50% on their overs and the Blackhawks are 48%. But at home the Lightning are 60% and the Blackhawks are 52%, so both even better in the current environment of tonight’s matchup. Also the Lightning average 6.13 goals/game on the road and the Blackhawks average 6.22 goals/game at home, so we love this play tonight.

Hurricanes ML (-125): Running it back with the Canes tonight. Same logic as yesterday, but we have the better goaltender tonight (Ned). Carolina coming off of a loss, and they are the better team even though they are a little banged up so is Dallas. The Stars do not have a significant home ice advantage and the Canes are rather good on the road. Feeling good about a comeback tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 26)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/26

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 4/26. The Model is finally back after a long weekend at grad school! A solid weekend of hockey with a lot of goals yesterday. A couple picks I had Wed/Thurs that didn’t hit (Rangers -1.5 and Isles/Caps over 5.5), hit with ease in their next matchups on Fri/Sat. If the research is there and it didn’t hit the first time, chances are it will hit in the rematch. Flyers had a great comeback last night that salvaged an over that looked dead with 2 minutes left in the game.

We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Senators Puck Line (+1.5, -245) over the Canucks
Senators/Canucks Under (6, -110)
Canadiens/Flames Under (5.5, -114)
Avalanches Money Line (-155) and Puck Line (-1.5, +148) over the Blues
Hurricanes Money Line (-120) over the Stars
Kings Money Line (-160) over the Ducks
Coyotes/Sharks Over (5.5, -110)

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Hurricanes ML (-120): The Hurricanes have been rolling of late and have a pretty good line today against Dallas. They have won 5 of 6 games against Dallas this season and supporting an 18 unit advantage on the ML this season. I’m guessing this line is assuming Reimer is in net instead of Ned, but even with Reimer I still like this number. Especially because Oettinger is confirmed for Dallas. We ride with Carolina tonight.

Canucks ML (-124): The Canucks have seemed to figure it out post-COVID break, going 3-1-0 in their 4 games since they returned. They have a back-to-back Wednesday/Thursday this week so I am more inclined to take them tonight as opposed to later in the week. They have more talent than the Senators and should handle their business tonight.

Kings/Ducks Over 5.5 (+110): We are back on the plus money overs, they are way too enticing. The reason we are getting plus money here is strictly because of the Ducks. 5.44 total goals/game and only hitting on 37.5% of their overs. However the Kings average 5.69 goals/game and hit on 55.6% of their overs. They are 2-2 on overs this season against each other. Both teams give up over 3 goals/game and at this value we like this play tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 20)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/20

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/20. The Model finally returned to expected form last night, going 2-1 but was +2 units because the DOGS WERE BARKING. The Senators took care of business and cashed as a +185 dog against the Flames winning 4-2. The over in the Wild/Coyotes cruised as they scored 7 goals and cashed with +120 odds. The only loss was Columbus who got burned on an empty net with 30 seconds left to lose 4-2. Close from a clean sweep and a dominant night but we will take this. We look ahead to Tuesday riding high.

We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Panthers Money Line (-220) over the Blue Jackets
Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -250) over the Islanders
Rangers/Islanders Under (5.5, -120)
Bruins Money Line (-305) over the Sabres
Penguins Money Line (-250) over the Devils
Red Wings Money Line (+215) over the Stars
Red Wings/Stars Under (5.5, -143)
Kings Money Line (-155) over the Ducks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. It looks like we will get the NHL debut of Spencer Knight for the Panthers tonight. One of the most highly-touted goalie prospects of the last decade and an American stud, let’s hope he gets off to a good start in the league.

My Picks

Hurricanes ML (+104): We are going back to the dogs tonight, albeit this one is slight. The second game of a back-to-back, the Canes should have the goaltending edge with McElhinney projected for the Lightning. Not to mention Stamkos is out in addition to missing Kucherov all season, and the Canes need to bank some points. Relatively even teams we like the Canes at plus money in this spot here.

Bruins -1.5 (-110): The Bruins are a different team post trade deadline. They have been rolling teams and are on a warpath to the finish. I will give the Sabres some credit they have been playing well as of late and got a win against Pittsburgh on Saturday and lost to the Bruins in a shootout on Tuesday. However the Sabres are the third-worst team covering +1.5 (53.8%) and even though the Bruins aren’t great covering -1.5 (32.5%, 21st in the league), they have covered in their last 3 games and we’re getting great value with the ML around -300.

Penguins 1P -0.5 (2U): The first 2 unit play on here, against my New Jersey Devils? Infathomable. The Devils have been getting pummeled and starting slow, trailing 3-0 in 4 (!!) consecutive games. Let’s add that Ty Smith and Mackenzie Blackwood are out tonight, in addition to Zacha and Bratt who have missed the last couple of games, and this is just too appetizing to pass up. I never take first period bets and I never do 2 unit bets so why wouldn’t I throw the hammer against my own team tonight. Too much value here to ignore.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 8)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/8

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/8. The Model had another undefeated night going 1-0-1. The Maple Leafs took care of business against Montreal winning 3-2. And then there was the under in the Sens/Oilers game. Looked great all game. 1 goal in the 1st. 2 goals in the 2nd. And then Leon Draisaitl decided to ruin my night and get the 6th goal on an empty net with 0.2 seconds left. 0.2!!! 2 tenths of a second. The game was over. He couldn’t give me my glory. Safe to say I didn’t sleep well last night. Whatever. On to today.

We have 10 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Lightning Puck Line (-1.5, +123) and Money Line (-210) over the Blue Jackets
Islanders Puck Line (-1.5, +135) over the Flyers
Capitals Money Line (-118) over the Bruins
Jets Money Line (+110) over the Canadiens
Devils Puck Line (-1.5, +195) and Money Line (-129) over the Sabres
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +190) over the Penguins
Oilers Money Line (-186) over the Senators
Oilers/Senators Under (6.5, -120)
Red Wings/Predators Under (5, +117)
Blackhawks Money Line (-104) over the Stars

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. There are a couple leans today that I don’t like enough to make official plays but if you want to sprinkle or throw a free bet on them (like I did with this first one), feel free. The Canadiens -127 have a big edge on The Model which prices them at -143. I also like the Rangers -130 and the Flyers +150, but again not enough to make official plays.

My Picks

Free Picks

Capitals ML (-115): The Bruins are banged up right now with McAvoy out and rolling out their 4th string goalie tonight in Swayman. The Caps are +4u at home this season and Boston is -2u on the road. They only have a slight edge on the BetMGM ML at -115 but The Model prices them around -135, which is why we like them tonight.

Lightning -1.5 (+128): The Lightning have yet to cover a puck line against Columbus. The same Columbus who has looked pretty terrible against everyone not named the Lightning this season. It’s hard to figure out exactly why Columbus plays them so well. Tonight I think a regression is in order. Considering the -1.5 number against Columbus was -110 and +100 in the last two games, I think we are getting value at +128.

Premium Pick

Hurricanes/Panthers Under 6 (+100): True life: I’m addicted to betting under 6 at plus odds. I didn’t learn my lesson from yesterday so I’m ready to get burned today. These teams just hit 7 goals in their last meeting but we get the good goalie matchup with Nedeljkovic and Driedger. These teams only hit under 6 in 1 out of 5 meetings so far this season, but pushed on 2 others. Neither of these teams average over 6 total goals/game this year with CAR at 5.53 and FLA at 5.83. Let’s ride this tonight and hate ourselves later.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Pittsburgh 1 (Crosby, Guentzel, Rakell) vs. St. Louis Blues

Carolina 1 (Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

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NHL DFS Summary

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NHL DFS Stacks

Carolina 1 (Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov) + Burns vs. Anaheim

New Jersey 1 (Mercer, Hischier, Tatar) + Hamilton vs. Philly

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NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/8

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