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NBA Ghost’s Gems for Eastern Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups begin tonight. The Eastern Conference is much more lopsided than the Western Conference, but there will be many good battles every night.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Eastern Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed below. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

After being dethroned as Conference Champions and NBA Champions last season, the Bucks bounced back with their most successful regular season since 2018-2019. Moreover, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP candidate, following a career-high 31.1 points per game. This roster is stout on both ends of the court, with their only drawback being clutch shooting down the stretch via shot creation.

Matchup

From a defensive standpoint, Miami has the ability to match up with nearly every NBA roster. However, the Bucks are a different beast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most unguardable players the league has to offer. Moreover, Brook Lopez has been terrific both in the paint and from behind the arc. Factor in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, two excellent two-way players, and there is simply too much to contain on a nightly basis. Each player has a respectable defender in front of them, but Miami is most vulnerable on the wing.

Rotation

After winning an NBA Championship only two season ago, Milwaukee is poised for another deep playoff run. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, this roster also features quality two-way players in Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez. Despite missing 49 games this season, Khris Middleton is set to contribute early and often, while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will flank the wings at times. Moreover, Bobby Portis Jr. will be the first big man off the bench, while Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles give Milwaukee veteran options off the bench, if necessary. Jevon Carter may spell Jrue Holiday at times, but don’t count on big minutes at rotations get tighter.

X-Factor

Despite their shortcomings on offense, the Heat’s defensive unit is no joke. Thus, the biggest x-factor in this series will be Brook Lopez. After finishing second in the NBA in blocks per game, Lopez received a nomination for Defensive Player of the Year. Moreover, he had his best shooting season since 2018-2019. In a matchup versus Bam Adebayo, it will be up to Lopez to control the paint on both ends of the court, with the obvious help of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Miami Heat (+750 to win series)

Introduction

It took a game longer than expected, but Miami made the NBA Playoffs. However, this team looks to be one of, if not the worst team remaining. Shockingly enough, they have some quality players where they should not be in this situation, but here they are. Their offense struggled mightily all season long and continued to do so in the Play-In, making their outlook far from optimistic.

Matchup

This is far from a good matchup for the Heat. Milwaukee’s interior defense is one of, if not the best in the NBA. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez await in the paint, while Jrue Holiday puts the clamps on the perimeter. Moreover, Miami plays awfully slow and were the lowest scoring team of the year, creating a hard enough situation thanks to their own shortcomings on offense.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. For some reason, the Heat are insistent on Gabe Vincent starting, but he will continue to have little impact. Other candidates would be Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, but their minutes will vary from game to game.

X-Factor

The off-ball guards will be crucial for Miami. Jimmy Butler will have to force Giannis to guard him on the perimeter to create space for his teammates, but he himself is far from elite out there. Moreover, Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Brook Lopez on the inside, while Jrue Holiday lines up on Tyler Herro. Thus, the duo of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus will have to make every shot count to keep this series close.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston Celtics (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

Following a disappointing loss in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, Boston came back stronger this season. As a team, Boston won six more games this season than they did last year. Moreover, both Tatum and Brown saw increases in their scoring outputs. This roster is sound from top to bottom, and it will come down to avoiding poor performances when it matters most.

Matchup

No matter which way you look at it, Boston matches up well versus Atlanta. They have multiple elite perimeter defenders to counter the Hawks’ star backcourt, while having formidable defenders on the inside as well. Moreover, a one-two scoring punch of Tatum and Brown is one of the best these NBA Playoffs have to offer. Add in two-way players such as Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, whose games are tailored to the playoffs and Boston is in for a serious run.

Rotation

Make no mistake about it, the core of a team that won the Eastern Conference has returned from last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are coming off terrific seasons and will anchor their team once again. Moreover, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are terrific two-way options for another playoff run. Al Horford and Robert Williams III will anchor the paint, while Grant Williams and Derrick White round out the rotation.

X-Factor

The key parts to this Boston rotation will all play important roles in this series. However, assuming both Smart and Brogdon clamp Trae Young, Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be crucial on the inside. Both John Collins and Clint Capela are terrific as the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense. Moreover, Atlanta has shooters on the outside to make Boston pay for defensive mistakes. The interior duo will have to be sharp on the glass and with paint defense, making this a series built for Robert Williams III.

Atlanta Hawks (+750 to win series)

Introduction

After their win in the Play-In, Atlanta dodged a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks in the opening round. However, things do not get any easier, as Boston are the defending Conference champions and are set on making another deep playoff run. Barring extreme circumstances, Atlanta looks destined for yet another early exit, which could bring massive changes in the offseason.

Matchup

Individual and collective matchups do not favor the Hawks. On the perimeter, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon will be a problem for Trae Young. Moreover, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be tough to contain, considering De’Andre Hunter can only guard one of them. Truthfully, Dejounte Murray will have to keep Brown at bay if they want the slightest chance of winning this series, and while it will happen for a game or two, Boston has too big of an edge in all facets of the game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out the rest of the rotation.

X-Factor

With Trae Young having to deal with one of Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon for every minute that he is on the court, Dejounte Murray will have to step up in a big way. If Atlanta wants to succeed in this series, Young needs to be just as good off the ball as he is with it, and Murray needs to be an exemplary playmaker. The pick-and-roll is just as useful with Murray and it is Young, and the former is an excellent counterpart to the rebounding abilities of Boston’s guards.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1000 to win series)

Introduction

It truly is Championship or bust for the 76ers at this point. Not only did they acquire James Harden to flank Joel Embiid, but this roster is built to win now. Aside from Tyrese Maxey, there is no young, promising talent on this team. However, with Boston, Milwaukee, and Cleveland standing in their way, the road to the NBA Finals is as hard as it ever will be for Philadelphia.

Matchup

The matchup for Philadelphia is decent here. Mikal Bridges will be a pain to deal with on the outside, but everything will have to funnel through Joel Embiid in the paint. Nic Claxton is no slouch around the rim, but with the way Embiid gets foul calls in his favor every night, there is a mismatch there. However, where the 76ers could find themselves in trouble is if the surrounding group are not hitting their shots. Assuming Bridges keeps Harden in check, it will be up to Melton, Maxey, and Harris to pitch in on the scoring sheet, something that has held Philadelphia back in the past.

Rotation

Joel Embiid will man the paint for the bulk of the minutes. Moreover, James Harden will have his minutes staggered at times so at least one is on the court at all times, but the two will be featured together a lot. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be the secondary scoring options, while De’Anthony Melton provides a combination of perimeter defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia also has the luxury of using Jalen McDaniels to spell Harris, while PJ Tucker will be a primary defender throughout the series. Georges Niang and Shake Milton will see minutes as they fit, which won’t be very often.

X-Factor

While the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid will lead the charge on offense, Tyrese Maxey has the potential to have the biggest impact in this series. Harden will draw coverage from Mikal Bridges, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. The pick-and-roll will be utilized a ton here to feature Embiid, but Maxey will find himself with open lanes to the rim off the ball when Embiid kicks to the outside.

Brooklyn Nets (+650 to win series)

Introduction

What was supposed to be a Championship season for the Brooklyn Nets took a turn for the worse. Their Big 3 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving was initially broken up when Harden was dealt for Ben Simmons. However, following multiple occasions of Irving having off-court issues, he was dealt to Dallas, while Durant found himself in Phoenix. However, there is a silver lining to the situation. Brooklyn received who could be the very best, if not one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA in Mikal Bridges. While they had a losing record after the trade, Bridges posted 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances for the Nets.

Matchup

This is a tough matchup for Brooklyn but it is certainly winnable. The key will be to switch the right offensive option onto James Harden and for said player to knock down shots when they come. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, not quite. The 76ers now quietly have multiple elite perimeter defenders in De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels. Meanwhile, while his offensive game is as useless as they come, PJ Tucker will likely get the first chance to guard Mikal Bridges. Lastly, Joel Embiid awaits in the paint, which is self-explanatory.

Rotation

The Nets will be in tough to find the right rotation to match Philadelphia. However, Nic Claxton needs to be out there for every minute that Joel Embiid is. Moreover, Mikal Bridges and Spender Dinwiddie seem poised to carry the bulk of minutes. Both Cam Johnson and Royce O’Neale make for good two-ways options, while the former has far more upside offensively. Lastly, Seth Curry and Joe Harris can provide scoring off the bench, while Dorian Finney-Smith will be needed as a perimeter defender. Two young talents in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe await their chance, but it’s unlikely to be here.

X-Factor

Make no mistake about it, the Nets will only go as far as Mikal Bridges can take them. His game is a perfect fit for the NBA Playoffs, but this is reserved for players who are not the top talent on their respective rosters. Thus, Spencer Dinwiddie makes the cut. Not only did he have interesting takes on FanDuel TV recently, but he has a lot to prove. Dinwiddie has been on four teams in the last four years and needs to take control of this offense. The 76ers are exploitable in switches on James Harden, and Dinwiddie will have to find a way to take advantage when opportunities arise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-200 to win series)

Introduction

After the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, expectations skyrocketed for this young Cavaliers team. Surrounded by quality veterans, this team is poised to make a deep run in the NBA Playoffs. While their core four are young, the Cavaliers excel on both ends of the court. Not only can they beat you multiple ways offensively, but they have the best defensive unit statistically this season. In what could be a surprise to some, Cleveland are darkhorse Championship contenders.

Matchup

While the Knicks’ defense is far from elite, they are no slouch as a unit either. Collectively, New York finished 19th in defensive rating and 13th in points per game allowed. However, their true strength is on the glass, finishing second in the NBA in rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers match up well though, with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen leading the charge. Donovan Mitchell figures to lead the charge here in all facets of the offense. Most notably, New York finished 27th in three-pointers allowed per game.

Rotation

Despite having a star-studded starting lineup, the Cavaliers’ bench is thin. Thus, do not expect a ton of surprising minutes here. The backcourt will feature two of the NBA’s young talent in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, Cleveland has another young duo in the frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While one of Lamar Stevens or Isaac Okoro will presumably start games on the wing, Caris LeVert will see more minutes than both of them. Rounding out the rotation will be Dean Wade, Ricky Rubio, and Cedi Osman.

X-Factor

While Donovan Mitchell is the real difference-maker, top players will be avoided in this section. It is no knock on Evan Mobley, but he is featured instead of his teammate. Fresh off a nomination for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s versatility will be needed in this series. He will be the primary defender on Julius Randle and provide offensive upside. Moreover, he is a tremendous rebounder for his age. Should the Knicks go small at times with Randle at the ‘5’ in favor of Robinson, Mobley can shift over if Jarrett Allen needs to consequently sub out.

New York Knicks (+170 to win series)

Introduction

In what could have been a disastrous season for New York, the Knicks came out in a good position. While the top teams in the East were clear, finishing ahead of Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Miami is quite the achievement. After an offseason of turmoil following the max contract signing of Jalen Brunson, the former Maverick had a career year. Not only did Brunson average 24/3.5/6.2 on 49.1% shooting, but he was the clear leader on the court.

Matchup

This matchup could not be worse for the Knicks. Not only did Cleveland rank first in defensive rating this year, but they also allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA. Moreover, the rank first versus multiple player types. Primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and scoring centers all struggle mightily versus the Cavaliers.

Rotation

Expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to stick to his roots. Through his career, he has been notorious for having one of the tightest rotations, no matter the time of year. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be key for the Knicks this series. Moreover, a battle in the paint awaits for Mitchell Robinson. Lastly, the trio of Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart will flank the wings. Look for Isaiah Hartenstein and Obi Toppin to pick up limited minutes in a backup role. Meanwhile Immanuel Quickley will continue to come off the bench, but will play clutch minutes and be in the closing lineup.

X-Factor

Playing against one of the best defenses in the NBA makes this section difficult. The Knicks will need both Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett to step up. While they are far from the flashiest players on offense, they have the best matchup. Lining up against a combination of Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert is as good as it will get versus Cleveland. However, the true x-factor in this series will be Mitchell Robinson. While the big man has had his limitations, this matchup is right up his alley. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are forces on both ends of the court, but Robinson will be needed every step of the way for New York.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 16)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite only five games being on the NBA schedule tonight, there are many stars taking the court. A few matchups are heavily favored in the direction of two Championship contenders, but there are two games that stand above the rest. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Sacramento Kings @ Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

On the second half of a back-to-back, there is no question that the Kings find themselves in the best game environment of the NBA slate. Despite holding the #2 seed in the Western Conference, Sacramento is somehow not favored in this game. Thus, there is a chance that De’Aaron Fox is resting. However, until that news is confirmed, he is in a terrific spot. Not only has Fox strung together two straight 30-point performances, but he leads the league in clutch scoring. Should Brooklyn be unable to switch Mikal Bridges onto Fox routinely, which is going to be the case, Fox will have his way with Spencer Dinwiddie.

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5)

The Kings have the best offensive rating in the NBA, but rank 26th in defensive rating this season. Over their last ten games, they rank 29th with a whopping 120.1 net defensive rating, while allowing 126.3 points per game. Enter the duo of Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie, who have been carrying the offense since arriving to town. Moreover, Cam Johnson gets a matchup with a Kings defense that ranks 29th in wing defense, while allowing the 18th-most three-pointers per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

There simply is no stopping Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. The face of the Thunder franchise now sits fifth in NBA scoring with 31.3 points per game. Moreover, he has scored 30 or more points in five straight games, averaging 36/6.2/4.6 on 51.8% shooting during that span. While Scottie Barnes is an elite perimeter defender, SGA will put on a show in front of his hometown crowd.

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

This OKC defense is certainly far from elite, and they are most exposed to combo wings and on the inside. Two players are of high interest in this one, and they are not the familiar faces most will play when getting exposure to the Raptors offense. While the field trends toward Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, both OG Anunoby and Jakob Poeltl have terrific matchups. After missing a month with a wrist injury, Anunoby has yet to play under 30 minutes since his return, while averaging 27.5 points per game in his last two appearances. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl has been a walking double-double in his second stint with the team, averaging 14.7/9.3/2.7 in 13 appearances with the team.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons (+12.5)
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 14)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The race for playoff positioning is quickly heating up. NBA teams continue to jockey for seeding, while others attempt to best their competition for the Play-In round. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Since their arrivals in Brooklyn, both Spencer Dinwiddie and Mikal Bridges have made a significant impact. While the Nets no longer have a game-changing superstar, this roster is built with depth and improved ball movement. Over his last five games, Bridges leads the team in both usage rate and scoring. Alongside Dinwiddie, who is second in both scoring and usage rate, Bridges has been able to flourish offensively. Moreover, Nic Claxton gets a friendly matchup against an OKC interior defense that ranks 26th in the NBA to true centers, while being ranked 26th in rebounding percentage.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been removed from the injury report after resting on Sunday night. Since he has sat out the last few back-to-backs for OKC, SGA looks rejuvenated out there. Over his last four games, he has scored 30 or more points in all four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 36.3/6/4.8 on 52.2% shooting during that span. With many enticing options at the top of the pricing grid on this NBA slate, including Nikola Jokic, Damian Lillard, and Anthony Davis, SGA will likely be less of a priority for the rest of the field, making him an enticing tournament play.

New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

New York Knicks (-2.5)

Jalen Brunson has missed the last two games for the Knicks and is unlikely to play again tonight. Thus, Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley will shoulder the load on offense. The former leads the team with a commanding 38.5% usage rate without Brunson this last weekend, averaging 26/8/4 on a mere 33.3% shooting. Moreover, the duo of Quickley and RJ Barrett are awkwardly positioned on the pricing grid tonight, making this game a commitment if choosing to play either one of them. Lastly, Josh Hart has seen his minutes increase since arriving to New York, logging 30 or more minutes in his last six games. During that span, he has averaged a modest 8.7/9/3.7 on 59.3% shooting with little volume.

Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

Should Damian Lillard be ruled out tonight with a calf injury, this offense becomes more enticing. The trio of Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Cam Reddish will all see more offensive opportunity should Lillard be ruled out. This is a tough situation to evaluate considering it is the last game of the NBA slate, but there is tremendous upside here at different positions of the pricing grid.

Honorable Mentions:

Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 9)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With six games on the NBA schedule tonight, there are multiple matchups that will result in offensive fireworks. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers (-9.5)

Houston Rockets (+9.5)

This game will be a track meet with no defense being played. Houston will be missing Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) tonight, meaning both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will see more offensive looks. The two carry usage rates of 28.4% and 21.6%, respectively, but see increases to 32.8% and 22.4% with Porter Jr. off the court. Moreover, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rating, while being 8th in pace. While the quartet of Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, KJ Martin, and Jae’Sean Tate are viable as well, both Green and/or Sengun make for more intriguing plays in tournaments.

Indiana Pacers (-9.5)

At the top of the pricing grid, most will flock to the next point guard named rather than Tyrese Haliburton. However, with Houston ranking 29th in the NBA in defensive rating and versus primary ball handlers, Haliburton has a tremendous ceiling. Over his last three games, Haliburton has scored 29 or more points in each appearance, with 30 or more in two of three games. Moreover, he has averaged 33.7/4.3/11 on 59.3% shooting during that span.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5)

No one is of more importance at the top of the pricing grid than Steph Curry. As alluded to above, he will be the most popular option in that spot, and rightfully so. The greatest shooter in NBA history is fresh off a 40/6/7 performance, where he made ten three-pointers on sixteen attempts. Moreover, he has taken a total of 43 shots in two appearances since returning from injury, 29 of which came from behind the arc. Memphis remains without Ja Morant, and Tyus Jones is simply no match for Curry’s combination of on-ball and off-ball wizardry. Additionally, Memphis ranks 22nd in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game, setting the stage for Curry to lead the slate in scoring. Should you start with both he and Haliburton, paired with one of Green or Sengun, this lineup construction allows for ample room for other surrounding pieces.

Memphis Grizzlies (+2.5)

Both Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones figure to be less popular than they have been on other NBA slates recently. The two have climbed the ranks of the pricing grid, making them intriguing tournament plays in an elite game environment. In the absence of Ja Morant, the two have combined for 39 points per game, while having off-setting minutes. While the Warriors struggle with on-ball defense, it is Bane’s minutes in that position that is the more enticing spot of the two players mentioned.

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+12.5)

The Nets figure to have one of, if not the most popular rotation on this NBA slate. On the front end of a back-to-back, Brooklyn will be without Spencer Dinwiddie, Nicolas Claxton, Cam Johnson, Ben Simmons, and Royce O’Neale. While most will flock to Mikal Bridges, it is Cam Thomas that will seize the most opportunity on the offensive side of the ball. While he takes over as the primary ball handler, Thomas has been electric in this spot before. At the beginning of February, Thomas strung together three straight 40-point efforts while taking 25 shots per night during that stretch.

Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5)

Simply put, there is no need to get exposure to the Bucks’ offense if both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday return to the lineup. The Nets will be no match for Giannis on the inside, but this game will instantly lack competitiveness. However, should both miss a second straight game, the trio of Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Jevon Carter are intriguing options. Wait to see the final injury report before taking any decisions.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons (+3.5)
Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic (-3.5)
New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 15)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With only two days remaining before the NBA All-Star weekend, expect a number of players to be ruled out. Moreover, many teams look to climb the standings, while others remain focused on getting healthier. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets (-5.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

As the Spurs look to the NBA Draft, many of their players will be sitting games out. Tonight, Tre Jones has been ruled out for the sixth time over the team’s last seven games. Thus, Devonte’ Graham makes for an intriguing play in tournaments. Since arriving in San Antonio, Graham has logged 24 or more minutes in each game. Moreover, he has averaged 17.3/2/5 and is attempting over ten three-pointers per night. With the Hornets ranking 6th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, continue to ride the wave of attacking their game environments.

Charlotte Hornets (-5.5)

LaMelo Ball was highlighted in Monday’s article as an excellent play for NBA tournaments. Not only did he come through with little to no people rostering him, but he actually led the slate in scoring. Over his last three games, Ball has averaged 24/8/12.3 on 47.4% shooting. Moreover, the Spurs rank 28th in the league versus primary ball handlers, while being last in defensive rating.

Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Miami Heat (-1.5)

With Tyler Herro ruled out for a second straight game, look for the trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Max Strus to be popular. Miami figures to be on a tight rotation once again, as Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, and Nikola Jovic remain out. Jimmy Butler has been having a mediocre regular season, but is one of the best playoff performers in recent years. Moreover, he has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five appearances, averaging 23.8/6.8/5.8. While his point/dollar upside is limited given his place on the pricing grid, he figures to be a staple in balanced lineup construction tonight.

Brooklyn Nets (+1.5)

Newly arrived Spencer Dinwiddie has shifted the landscape of the Nets’ offense. Not only is he second on the team in usage rate since being traded, but he also has the highest scoring average and most assists. However, this rotation lacks appeal on such a large NBA slate. There is no need to force exposure here given the depth that Brooklyn now has.

Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)

Houston Rockets (+9.5)

Kevin Porter Jr. remains out for the Rockets, meaning Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will continue to lead this offense. Both players have taken significant leaps this season, but Green has tremendous upside with the sheer volume he has on a nightly basis. Over his last four games, Green has scored 27 or more points in three appearances, averaging 27/3.3/3.3 on 42.7% shooting. Moreover, he has taken over 20 field goal attempts per night during that stretch, leading the team by a significant margin. With such a high usage rate, Green is one of the best plays in the mid range of this NBA slate.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes a backseat to LaMelo Ball on this NBA slate, rostering the two together with Jalen Green is a tremendous start to a loaded backcourt. Soon to make his All-Star debut, the face of the Thunder franchise has been having a tremendous season. He is currently fifth in league scoring, averaging 30.9 points per game. Moreover, he has averaged 32/4.6/6.1 on 51.5% shooting over his last ten games. Houston currently ranks last in the league versus primary ball handlers, while having a 28th-ranked defense.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers (OTB)
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 9)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Last night’s interesting matchups were overshadowed by trade deadline eve. The Lakers sent Russell Westbrook and a first round pick to the Jazz, while Utah managed to get both a coveted first round pick and lose Mike Conley’s hefty contract. Today, the trade deadline is at 3pm EST, meaning many players on this NBA slate could be affected. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks (+1.5)

Phoenix Suns (-1.5)

Devin Booker returned to the lineup for the first time since Christmas Day after recovering from a groin injury, but has been ruled out for tonight. Thus, Chris Paul makes for an excellent play on this NBA slate. Despite a decline from his usual self, CP3 is still averaging 13.6/4.3/8.7 on 43.2% shooting this season. Moreover, he has posted 1.13 fantasy points per minute through a 19.1% usage rate. However, with Booker off the floor, Paul sees slight improvements. Through a 21.9% usage rate, CP3 posts 1.16 points per minute. Atlanta ranks 12th in the NBA versus pick-and-roll offenses, giving up 17.6 points per game to the play type.

Atlanta Hawks (+1.5)

If the Lakers’ studs are both available, then Trae Young gets the nod for me at the top of the pricing grid, barring enough value to fit Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, should LeBron James sit tonight’s game after breaking the NBA all-time scoring record, Anthony Davis takes precedence over Young. Nonetheless, Young will be tasked with leading this offense tonight, as he does regularly. Over his last eight games, Young has scored 20 or more points in seven appearances. Moreover, he has posted ten or more assists in six of his last eight. During that span, Young has averaged 25/3.1/10.8 on 44.7% shooting.

Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

Chicago Bulls (OTB)

DeMar DeRozan missed the team’s last game with a hip injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Should he be ruled out once again, the duo if Nikola Vucevic and Zach Lavine make for interesting pieces to NBA lineups. The Bulls are in a similar position as the Raptors heading into the trade deadline in the sense that they have players the league is interested in, and this core simply has not worked. Keep an eye on this injury report leading up to lock, as it could shake the slate up drastically, should players get traded before the deadline.

Brooklyn Nets (OTB)

All eyes will be on Cam Thomas tonight. The sophomore became the league’s youngest player to record 40 or more points in three straight outings at only 21 years old. Moreover, Thomas has averaged 44.7/4.7/3.7 on 56% shooting during his last three outings through a whopping 42.1% usage rate. However, tread with caution on this NBA slate. Both Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith are expected to make their debuts with the team. While the latter will not remove from Thomas’ potential, Dinwiddie will surely takeover as the primary ball handler. Make no mistake about it, Thomas still makes for an excellent play in balanced lineups, but he is much riskier than previous slates given the arrival of Dinwiddie.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic (OTB)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 26)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of good matchups on a small NBA schedule tonight. Some teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others are crawling to the All-Star break hoping to get healthy. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets (-8.5)

Detroit Pistons (+8.5)

Lately, Jalen Duren has been a force on both ends of the court. The rookie was shockingly dealt from the Knicks/Hornets on draft day in a three-team trade, but the Pistons have been reaping the benefits. Over his last five games, Duren has averaged 13.6/11.6/1 on 71.8% shooting. Moreover, he has collected three double-doubles in those five appearances, seeing 20 minutes or more in four of five. The Nets rank 6th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, but their bench is overmatched versus Duren, who is likely to come out of the starting lineup with the return of Isaiah Stewart looming.

Brooklyn Nets (-8.5)

The Nets are on the second half of a back-to-back and facing an underwhelming opponent. Thus, there is a chance that key players sit this one out. Should Kyrie Irving be one to miss this game, the NBA slate will be turned upside down. Make sure to monitor this injury report throughout the day.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets (+7.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5)

Donovan Mitchell is set to miss multiple games with a groin injury, making the Cavaliers enticing on this NBA slate. Beginning with Darius Garland, the starting unit will thrive against a Rockets defense that ranks 28th in the defensive rating. On the season, Garland has a 27.4% usage rate, resulting in 1.10 fantasy points per minute. However, with Mitchell off the court, Garland sees an increase to 1.24 fantasy points per minute through a 29.8% usage rate. Caris LeVert will see more opportunity on the offense end, while both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley see more action in the paint with Mitchell out.

Houston Rockets (+7.5)

The Rockets are on the second half of a back-to-back and may rest a few players. Eric Gordon has been the subject of many trade rumors and could get the night off, while Jabari Smith Jr. returned to the lineup after a two-game absence against the Wizards. Thus, the duo of Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will continue leading the offense. However, there will also be more opportunity for the likes of KJ Martin and Tari Eason, should both Gordon and Smith Jr. miss this game. Another injury report to monitor, but a crucial one to this NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Hornets (+5.5)
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/17/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are only four games on the NBA schedule tonight, but there is plenty of intrigue. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Toronto Raptors (+6.5)

Both of these teams are on the second half of a back-to-back and have key players in question. After the Raptors starting unit all played over 40 minutes yesterday in an overtime win versus the Knicks, it’s possible to see someone rest. The most likely candidate is Fred VanVleet, who has been dealing with a back injury. With Pascal Siakam dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the paint, the perimeter options will have to carry the offense. VanVleet has been having a streaky season, showing upside on the offensive end, while also carrying a low floor. Moreover, Gary Trent Jr. seems to have shaken off his jitters from the beginning of the season. In his last 11 games, GTJ has seen 30 or more minutes in ten appearances, scoring 20 or more points in seven of them. The two are the preferred Raptors on this NBA slate.

Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed his third consecutive game yesterday. However, he had taken part in warmup and was listed as probable. Barring any setback, he is in a great spot to lead the NBA slate in scoring. While he had two poor performances recently, the upside he carries against the Raptors is tremendous. While Toronto sits 6th in the league in points allowed in the paint, Giannis is matchup proof. The MVP candidate has averaged 30.1/15/6.3 over his last seven games, despite two appearances with seven and nine points. There are plenty of studs to choose from on this slate, so Brook Lopez makes for a fine alternate to get exposure to this competitive game environment.

Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)

Once one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Nets are 0-2 since losing Kevin Durant to an MCL sprain. However, a matchup versus a Spurs defense that ranks last in the league could be what they need to get things in gear. The Spurs defense struggles most notably in their backcourt. They sit 27th versus primary ball handlers and 29th versus off-ball guards, allowing the 22nd most three-pointers and the highest shooting percentage from behind the arc. Ben Simmons has a modest 9% usage rate in two games without Durant, but he continues to run point alongside Kyrie Irving. Moreover, the quartet of Irving, Curry, Harris, and Warren are set to flourish in a quick game environment.

San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Vegas has this game as far from a blowout as anticipated. Despite the lopsided matchup on paper, the Spurs aren’t as big of underdogs as one would expect. Thus, the trio of Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Poeltl are in for big minutes. Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the rebuilding Spurs this season. Over his last seven games, Jones has been phenomenal on offense despite the team’s 1-6 record. During that span, Jones has averaged 19.1/4.3/5.7 on 49.1% shooting. With the Nets shifting Simmons to the paint on defense, Jones gets a friendly matchup versus Kyrie Irving.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

If you’re looking for fireworks on this NBA slate, look no further. This matchup is set to feature two elite offenses, but all eyes will be on Damian Lillard versus Nikola Jokic. The former has been on quite a tear for the Trail Blazers recently. Over his last five games, Lillard has scored 30 or more points in each appearance. Moreover, Lillard has averaged 38/3.6/6.4 on 53.1% shooting during that span while attempting over ten three-pointers per night.

Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

On the flipside of Lillard’s upside is none other than Nikola Jokic. The back-to-back NBA MVP has done it all for the Nuggets this season, and has posted three triple-doubles over his last four games. Moreover, he has averaged 20/13.5/12.3 during that span. If Jokic does not fit builds, both Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are good ways to get exposure to this elite game environment. The two rely heavily on their scoring to provide a good fantasy output, but if Jokic does not break the slate, it’s largely because someone else on Denver is carrying the load alongside with him.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

While the status of Paul George greatly impacts the Clippers rotation, his probable return makes this an elite game environment that will go overlooked on a small NBA slate. While there are many players with offensive upside on both teams, none have been playing to the level that James Harden has been lately. Over his last five games, The Beard has averaged 23/8.4/13 on 57.4% shooting. Moreover, Harden has two triple-doubles during that span, while collecting 11 or more assists in each appearance. Primary ball handlers versus the Clippers will forever be one of the best matchups in NBA DFS, and Harden is set to take flight tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Exposure to the Clippers on this NBA slate is contingent on the status of Paul George. After practicing on Monday, the expectation is that PG will return after missing the team’s last five games. However, this greatly impacts the production of others around him. Given the level of uncertainty and the fact that this game is the last to tipoff, this is a risk that could send lineups to the top or bottom of the leaderboards.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/12/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

This week’s NBA slates have been determined by injuries. Plenty of key players have been missing for their respective teams, and tonight is no different. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat (OTB)

Milwaukee Bucks (OTB)

The Bucks are on the second half of a back-to-back and there will be injury news to follow. Khris Middleton resumed basketball activities this week, but his timetable to return has yet to be determined. Moreover, Grayson Allen left and did not return to last night’s game versus the Hawks. Thus, there will be plenty of value around Giannis Antetokounmpo. Should the two-time NBA MVP suit up, he’s a strong candidate to lead the slate in scoring. Moreover, Jrue Holiday will be a key part of the offense once again. Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and Jevon Carter will all be in for significant minutes should both Middleton and Allen miss this game.

Miami Heat (OTB)

For what seems to be the first time in franchise history, the Heat are ahead of the game with their injury report. While Bam Adebayo is probable to play, both Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro have already been ruled out, in addition to Caleb Martin. The likely return of Adeabyo will shift Orlando Robinson to the bench, but there will still be plenty of value in this backcourt. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent will be in for a heavy workload alongside Jimmy Butler and company. Moreover, Victor Oladipo takes over the bench unit as its primary scorer. There are different directions to take with this rotation on a small NBA slate, but exposure to the Heat is a must.

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Boston Celtics (-3.5)

Another team on the second half of a back-to-back is Boston. Last night, we saw both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III be ruled out with injuries, but their statuses for tonight remain unclear at the time of writing. Whether the duo returns to the lineup or not is irrelevant to the importance that both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have to this offense on a nightly basis. Over their last 12 games, Brown and Tatum have combined for 61.1 points per game. Moreover, the two lead the team in usage rate at 33.2% and 33.8%, respectively. On a small NBA slate with plenty of value, this game has the star power to fill the rest of lineups.

Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Kevin Durant has been having quite the season, He has averaged 29.7/6.7/5.3 while being an NBA MVP candidate, leading the Nets to #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, an MCL injury is set to sideline KD for approximately one month. It could not come at a worse time, as the Nets are the hottest team in the league right now. However, this will create ample opportunity for Kyrie Irving on offense. On the season, Irving has averaged 26/4.9/4.7 on 48.8% shooting through a 29.1% usage rate, resulting in 1.18 fantasy points per minute. However, with KD off the court, Irving sees his usage rate climb to a whopping 36.3% and his fantasy points per minute increases to 1.35. The stage is set for Kyrie to take the reigns of this offense once again.

Honorable Mentions:

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (-7.5)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (OTB)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/06

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are a ton of good matchups on the NBA schedule tonight. Unfortunately for fans, many stars of the game have already been ruled out. However, this makes this slate interesting for fantasy purposes. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-4.5)

No NBA team is on a better run than the Nets. Before losing to the Bulls the other night, Brooklyn had strung together 12 wins in a row and are now 12-1 in their last 13 games. During that stretch, the duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been phenomenal. The two lead the team in usage rate at 32.1% and 30.9%, respectively. Moreover, they have combined for 59 points per game. With Zion Williamson out for the Pelicans, Kevin Durant has a tremendous matchup versus the Pelicans’ wings. However, Kyrie Irving has scored 20 or more points in 11 of the team’s last 13 games, averaging 28.9/6.1/5.1 on 52.9% shooting. The two will combine for a ton of shots tonight, and either one makes for a great play.

New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5)

In the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans duo of CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas will be two of the most rostered players on the NBA slate. However, expectations need to be tempered. The Nets are no longer a team that can be easily beat in their own half of the court. Over the last ten games, they have the third-best defensive rating in the league. Moreover, they are now a top-10 defense in the NBA. Despite the interior presences of Nic Claxton and Ben Simmons, Valanciunas has the higher upside between he and his teammate. Over his last six games, Valanciunas has four double-doubles and has averaged 12.7/11.2/1.8 on 44.9% shooting.

Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

This game will be overlooked on a large NBA slate and it really should not be. Not only is it one of the best game environments, but a key injury to Bradley Beal opens up this Washington rotation. The Thunder currently rank 26th in the NBA against true centers, and we want to exploit their interior defense. On the season, Kristaps Porzingis has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. However, with Beal off the court, these increase to a 29.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. If you are reluctant to commit to KP at the top of the pricing grid, Daniel Gafford makes for an intriguing tournament play, as does Rui Hachimura, only if Gafford (elbow) misses this game.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

By now, everyone should know just how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been playing this season. He is far and away the top talent and fantasy player on a rebuilding Thunder team. However, similarly to Porzingis, there are other options if the salary is worrisome. In the absence of two frontcourt players, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aleksej Pokusevski, the field has been searching for a replacement big man. However, it has been Josh Giddey that has reaped the benefits. Not only is he the leading rebounder on the team, but he has seen an increase in both scoring and usage rate. Over his last four games, Giddey has three 20-point efforts. Moreover, he has averaged 20.5/7.3/3.5 on 53.2% shooting, seeing a notable increase in shot attempts over his season average.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

I wanted to touch on this game because the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back. At the time of writing, Paul George is questionable for their game against the Nuggets. Moreover, Kawhi Leonard is a rest candidate on the second half of a back-to-back, as is John Wall, Nic Batum, and Marcus Morris. If the dominos fall with a lengthly injury report, this will be the spot for the majority of the value on a large NBA slate. Look for updates in Discord.

Minnesota Timberwolves (OTB)

There is no greater disappointment in the NBA than the Timberwolves. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert in the offseason, Minnesota is actually performing worse on both ends of the court this season. However, with Karl-Anthony Towns still nursing a calf injury, there are many touches to go around on offense. Anthony Edwards will continue to lead the charge, however the Clippers boast two of the best defenders in the league in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Should both end up sitting, Edwards carries much more upside. Elsewhere, Rudy Gobert has been the primary cause for concern over this roster. However, with a friendly matchup against a Clippers defense that ranks 22nd against centers and 18th in points allowed in the paint, he makes for an intriguing pivot to a popular Jonas Valanciunas.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

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