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Brendan Steele

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 132 golfers
Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)
The courses: TPC Scottsdale
- Par 71 – 7,261 yards
- Altitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also important
- Fans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5K
- Fast Bermuda greens
6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller field
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.

Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.

Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.

Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.

Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James Hahn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for.

Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford

3 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Safeway Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Safeway Open, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

First event of new “season”
156 players in field
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
The course: North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa (Napa, CA)
Par 72: 7,203 yards – Johnny Miller design
Poa Annua Greens
Lots of slopes and bunkers, Redwood trees
- Formerly the Frys.com Open
- Defending champion: Cameron Champ (-17)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach & Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (400-450), Driving Distance, Birdie or Better%

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Si Woo Kim (DK $10,800) – It’s a little curious to see Kim as the most expensive golfer in the field, especially since he’s lacking any real success at this venue, but he has been playing well lately (T13 at the PGA Championship and T3 at the Wyndham). I’m not sure I’ll be looking his way in large-field GPPs, but he’s 9-for-9 with four top 20s and makes for a cash game play if you’re seeking a cutmaker with some decent form.

Phil Mickelson (DK 10,600) – While it may be hilarious to see a Champions Tour golfer here in the top pricing tier, Phil is the second most expensive golfer and betting favorite for a reason: He loves California and he has some decent course history here. The wind is manageable this week and Phil can scramble if he misses the fairways and greens, making him a decent GPP play.

Brendan Steele (DK $10,000) – He won here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’ll be popular. While Steele struggled here in his last two appearances at the North Course, he did make the cut both times and is playing well (7-for-7 with three top 25s) since his poor showing at the Charles Schwab.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – I love the way Sergio still hits it off the tee and there’s still plenty of talent left in his tank. He putts extremely well on poa, so there’s not as much risk of a meltdown around the greens, and he’s got zero course history – the formula for a smashing GPP play.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,700) – For all the grief we give Grillo for his poor performance on the greens, he’s done better lately and can really string together some birdies if he’s competent with the flat stick. He’s also made four out of his last five cuts here and even won the event in 2015.

Also consider: Shane Lowry, Chez Reavie (cash), Joel Dahmen (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,300) – The best worst ball striker in the world, Sneds takes his circus show of missed cuts to the West Coast, and he even gets to putt on his preferred surface. He’s a fan of this venue, with 4-for-4 made cut and some impressive showings, including a playoff loss in 2018 and a pair of T17s. If his back is up to it, he show be okay this week.

Harold Varner (DK 9,100) – Varner is a happy-go-lucky PGA grinder who’s had a nice run in 2020, boasting some excellent stats along the way: 15th on TOUR in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 5-for-5 with three top 20s at the North Course and will be a staple on my GPP lineups.

Cam Davis (DK 8,900) – The talented Australian heads back to the North Course for his third appearance at Silverado – where he posted a T17 in his debut in 2018. I can’t speak to his ability to win here, but he’s probably a solid cash game play (4-for-5 with two top 20s since the 3M).

Bud Cauley (DK 8,600) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but Cauley is just the type of golfer I’m looking for in GPPs. He’s made four straight cuts here (including a seventh-place finish in 2017) and the long odds (50-1) mean his ownership won’t get too high.

Mark Hubbard (DK 8,100) – Hubbard has made some leaderboard appearances in 2020 and actually finished among the Top 50 in the FedExCup – a run that included a T13 at this venue in 2019. We know Hubbard can go low, and this is one place where his skills should translate.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,800) – The South Africanhasn’t played here since his 2015 debut, when he finished tied for sixth place. The odds of him winning aren’t great (60-1), but his health and form indicate he’s perfectly capable of a Top 10 finish and paying off his sub-$8K salary.

Jim Furyk (DK $7,700) – Another “senior” who still makes appearance son the regular tour, I’ll never count out Furyk, who finished T17 here last season with the likes of Snedeker and Varner, among others. What he lacks in driving distance he makes up for in excellent touch around the greens and solid approaches with his irons.

Also consider: Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Will Gordon (GPP), Lucas Glover, Luke List, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale DK $7,500) – A feast-or-famine GPP player who usually miss the cut or finishes among the Top 30, Tringale has been relatively consistent at this venue, with 4-out-of-5 made cut and three straight finished in the Top 50. He could be ready for a breakthrough here, and nobody will be on him.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,300) – I’ve seen plenty ofdiscussion about McNealy’s roots in Napa, as the Stanford alum actually made his pro PGA tour debut at Silverado in 2017. He’s made the cut each time here without a significant finish, but his form has been decent and he’s capable of a Top 10 finish – good enough for us at this price point.

Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – He’s a great guy and he finished with a Top 25 in his Safeway debut last season, so I still like Higgs for GPPs even if he’s not the best SG: APP golfer around. His odds to win are 80-1, which is kind of intriguing when you consider his SG: OTT numbers (35th on tour) and recent T11 (-14) at the Northern Trust.

Troy Merritt (DK $7,100) – He finished second to Richy Wrenski at the Barracuda Championship in nearby Truckee, CA and boasts some of the best Driving Acurcy numbers on tour. His elite putting numbers and impressive course history (T15 in 2016 & T4 in 2018) mean he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,000) – As a rookie in 2019-20, he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and led in average distance of putts made. Played his best out of the break with five top 25s across two tours.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,600) – He could be the best option under $7K considering his T7 finish here in 2019, and his game (along with almost all the Camerons, really) seems to fit this course.

Also consider: Charley Hoffman (GPP) Sepp Straka (GPP), Brice Garnett, Xinjun Zhang (GPP), J.B. Holmes (GPP) Chesson Hadley

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Zac Blair (DK $6,400) – The options in this range are pretty awful, with almost no success among the golfers remaining, but Blair finished tied for 4th place here last year with Charles Howell III and Justin Thomas, so he’s at least capable of a Top 20. But please don’t go overboard on a guy who’s only made about half of the cuts in the past season, though.

Additional GPP punts: Aaron Baddeley, Brian Gay, Hank Lebioda

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Insight Sheet: The Memorial presented by Nationwide

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**

Players priced $10,000 and higher

***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***

Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.

Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.

****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.

Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.

Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.

Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.

Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?

Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.

Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.

Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****

Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for The Memorial. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 132 golfers
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7261 yards
Cut: 36-hole cut, so top 65 and ties play the weekend
The cut has been between Even Par and +2 the past six years
Medium course difficulty (24/48 in 2019)
Bermuda greens
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4s: 450-500, SG: Around the Green, Approach, Proximity to Hole, SG: Putting, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,400, FD $12,100) – Rahm went to Arizona State and just finished second at Torrey Pines. He’s 4-for-4 at the event and his worst finish is a T16. He’s the betting favorite at 6-1, a lock-in cash game and I’ll have him in about 40-50 percent of my GPPs.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,200, FD $11,900) – Always in the mix, Thomaslost some momentum when he missed the cut at the Sony, but I’m willing to throwthat performance out because of the brutal conditions. He’s also had somestruggles at this event, so maybe we get a break on his ownership? His eliteball-striking makes him a fine GPP play.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,500, FD $11,500) – Fowler is the defendingchamp and has finished 1-11-4-2 in his last four tries. He should contend againif he can right the ship after his MC in San Diego and get his putter going.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,100, FD $11,300) – Matsuyama has won here twice (2016 and 2017), finishing 15^th here last season. He checks all the boxes in my models and is actually a bit of a bargain considering his course history.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,900, FD $10,400) – We know how good his putter is, and with the form decent and 4/4 on his last four cuts here, he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

Branden Grace (DK $8,700, FD $10,200) – In his first appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he finished solo second place, and there are no major weaknesses that should have him in big trouble here. A worthy play in all formats.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,400, FD $10,500) – Hovland checks all the boxes except around the green, and I think folks have forgotten about him a bit. He’s long enough and straight enough off the tee to employ either strategy, and he ranks well in SG: Approach. As you can see in the graphic below, he’s showing up in the models put together by Win Daily’s Patrick Waters too. I’ll have heavy GPP ownership this week.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000, FD $9,900) –.Another player who’s popping on my models, Moore’s yet to break through with a Top 10 here but is priced well and is an excellent ball striker. A risk-reward GPP mid-range value play.

Byeong Hun An (DK ($7,600, FD $9,600) – An is similar to Moore in that he’s a good ball striker who gets held back by his putter. This is a good venue to help rectify that and he’s 3-for-3 here so far.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,500) – Despite missing the cut here last season, Steele loves the venue and has three Top 20 finishes, including a solo third in 2018.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Chez Reavie, Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Zach Johnson (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – A proven veteran with solid course history and an affordable price tag.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,300, FD $8,800) – I’m a Grillo fan and he’s 4-for-4 here. If he can get the putter blazing, who knows?

Martin Laird (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Laird will see pretty high ownership because of his amazing course history, so we might steer clear in large-field GPPs to differentiate.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,900, FD $8,000) – He’s played well here the last two years with a 5th place finish in 2018 and a 20th place finishes in 2019, and he’s showing up in my models along with an affordable price.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600, FD $7,700) – When Stuard goes flag hunting, he’s a dangerous golfer with plenty of upsides. He’s super-cheap and looks like a good fit with the course.

More value golfers for GPPs: Beau Hossler, Max Homa, DennyMcCarthy, Danny Lee, Brian Gay, Chris Kirk

Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner whileturning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for some winners at the American Express in Palm Springs and helping you bring in the big bucks!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 156 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties play on Sunday at PGA West’s Stadium course – as the pro-am event goes three days and spans the three courses.
Played at three courses
The PGA West Stadium Course is used twice (once during the first three rounds and on Sunday), with La Quinta Golf Club and The Nicklaus course at PGA West used for the other two.
All three courses ranked inside the top 10 easiest on tour last year with the latter two being the two easiest.
Easier-to-hit fairways and Bermuda turf and greens, shorter courses for Par 72s
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, Par 5 scoring, Birdie or Better, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rickie Fowler (DK $11,500, FD $12,000) – Rickie is thebiggest name in the field this week and he finished T5 in his last start at theSentry Tournament of Champions. A win here in his native SoCal could help kickoff a big year for him.

Tony Finau (DK $10,500, FD $11,300) – Finau is a long hitter who can makebirdies in bunches and remains one of the most talented players in the field.Lock him in your core plays this week.

Charles Howell III (DK $10,100, FD $10,500) – He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 11 appearances in this event, and he’s notched three top 20s since 2016. Plenty to like here as he’s a West Coast swing performer.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500, FD $10,400) – Scottie pops on allour metrics and is a good fit for this course. He didn’t play last week so he’sfree of trauma heading into the desert.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Byeong Hun An

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $9,400):

Francisco Molinari (DK $9,200, FD $11,000) – He’s more of a GPP play on FanDuel because of the price but makes for a great bargain and cash game play on DK, and he may fly under the radar.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,000, FD $10,700) – Wolff might get popular this week. The 20-year-old phenom ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth in SG: Putting at the Sentry en route to a T11 finish.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900, FD $10,200) – Ancer is one of my favorite cash or GPP plays and I’m going back to the well after he disappointed at the weather-disrupted Sony. He’s just too good not to spike some Top 10s in fields where only 25 of the world’s top 100 are teeing it up.

Brian Harman (DK $8,600, FD $9,900) – He’s my lefty of choice this week and he finished T11-T3-T20 here from2016-2018 before an untimely MC last year here during a rough patch.

Harris English (DK $7,700, FD $9,600) – English will also be very popular, as he’s snagged several Top 5 finishes this season. I’ll be watching ownership to determine fade equity.

Also consider: Jason Kokrak, J.T. Poston, Brendan Todd, Kevin Kisner, RorySabbatini, Lucas Glover

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,400, FD $9,300) – Goingright back to the well with Munoz after a bizarre week. He’s should fare wellhere with the Bermuda greens and the price is reasonable.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,300, FD $8,700) – Cauley is another golfer who fits the Bermuda profile but fell victim to rough conditions last week. I’m buying based on course fit and talent. He’s never going to be elite, but at this price, we’re looking for a Top 10.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – Gooch barely made the cut last week but he’s a 90-1 shot to win this week – better odds than defending champ, Adam Long. He’s got top 10 upside at a low price.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100, FD $9,000) – Norlander closed with a two-under 68 on Sunday at the Sony Open to finish -7 and tied for ninth – his second consecutive top 10. I like him in all formats at this price.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $6,800, FD $8,800) – He can go low and excels at Par 5s – and he won here back in 2011 suing a different mix of courses. I’ll have some shares in GPPs, but he’s not safe for cash.

More value golfers for GPPs: Brian Gay, Adam Long, Bo Hoag, Bronson Burgoon, Hudson Swafford, Sepp Straka, Maverick McNealy, Wyndham Clark

$6K punts: Mark Wilson, Rafael Campos

The PGA DFS Fades:

Phil Mickelson (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Everybody’s talking up “Tournament Host” Phil, but he just doesn’t play a lot of golf anymore and there’s a LOT of talented players out here. I may stick him in one or two large-field GPPs if I land on him in that price range, but I’d much rather have Harman or Ancer, especially in cash games.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,500, FD $9,400) – I really didn’t like what I saw on that final hole Sunday night. It reminded me of Justin Thomas at Kapalua, and we know how he fared last week. Steele isn’t as good as he played last week, so I’ll be fading him in my lineups despite his second-place finish in the Sony Open.

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (studs/scrubs)

R. Fowler

T. Finau

M. Wolff

B. Burgoon

S. Straka

R. Campos

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

F. Molinari

M. Wolff

A. Ancer

B. Harman

T. Gooch

H. Norlander

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3(large-field):

B. An

S. Scheffler

H. English

R. Sabbatini

S. Munoz

B. Gay

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4 years ago 0 comment

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Brendan Steele

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $8,900):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,500 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK Under $7,500):

The PGA DFS Fades:

PGA DFS — Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (studs/scrubs)

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (balanced):

PGA DFS – Sample DK GPP lineup #3(large-field):

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