It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.
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Pitching
The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.
Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)
$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP
This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.
The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.
BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)
$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP
Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.
Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)
$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK
As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.
2019 Starting Pitching Stats
| Name | Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 172.1 | 12.69 | 1.72 | 0.94 | 40.80% | 11.60% | 2.92 | 2.88 |
| Charlie Morton | Rays | 194.2 | 11.1 | 2.64 | 0.69 | 48.20% | 10.40% | 3.05 | 3.28 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 121.2 | 10.58 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 44.60% | 12.00% | 3.62 | 3.36 |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | 29.2 | 9.1 | 2.12 | 0.91 | 41.20% | 10.70% | 1.21 | 3.98 |
Hitting
So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.
Second Half Bullpen Stats
| Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Nationals | 234.2 | 8.94 | 3.72 | 1.61 | 37.30% | 15.30% | 4.83 | 4.88 |
| Brewers | 284 | 11.12 | 3.96 | 1.43 | 43.40% | 18.00% | 3.99 | 3.96 |
| Athletics | 226.2 | 10.2 | 3.14 | 1.23 | 41.00% | 14.00% | 3.77 | 4.08 |
| Rays | 328.1 | 10.75 | 2.74 | 1.29 | 41.90% | 15.00% | 3.56 | 3.8 |
Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs
As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.
Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Keston Hiura | 265 | 6.80% | 30.20% | 0.23 | 6 | 0.418 | 159 |
| Eric Thames | 397 | 10.60% | 30.50% | 0.35 | 3 | 0.362 | 122 |
| Yasmani Grandal | 438 | 16.40% | 21.90% | 0.75 | 3 | 0.35 | 114 |
| Mike Moustakas | 403 | 9.90% | 17.60% | 0.56 | 3 | 0.342 | 109 |
| Ryan Braun | 332 | 5.40% | 23.50% | 0.23 | 8 | 0.338 | 106 |
| Trent Grisham | 147 | 11.60% | 23.10% | 0.5 | 1 | 0.319 | 94 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 445 | 7.60% | 17.10% | 0.45 | 9 | 0.296 | 79 |
| Ben Gamel | 277 | 10.10% | 29.60% | 0.34 | 1 | 0.284 | 71 |
| Travis Shaw | 219 | 16.40% | 32.90% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.278 | 67 |
| Cory Spangenberg | 84 | 7.10% | 32.10% | 0.22 | 2 | 0.27 | 62 |
| Orlando Arcia | 411 | 7.80% | 20.70% | 0.38 | 7 | 0.261 | 56 |
| Hernan Perez | 127 | 5.50% | 33.90% | 0.16 | 2 | 0.24 | 42 |
| Manny Pina | 98 | 9.20% | 25.50% | 0.36 | 0 | 0.233 | 38 |
| Tyler Austin | 69 | 10.10% | 44.90% | 0.23 | 1 | 0.232 | 41 |
| Tyler Saladino | 52 | 7.70% | 32.70% | 0.24 | 2 | 0.188 | 8 |
Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs
Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Juan Soto | 438 | 18.30% | 20.30% | 0.9 | 9 | 0.414 | 155 |
| Anthony Rendon | 475 | 11.40% | 12.40% | 0.92 | 2 | 0.411 | 153 |
| Howie Kendrick | 244 | 7.80% | 12.70% | 0.61 | 1 | 0.385 | 136 |
| Trea Turner | 441 | 7.50% | 20.40% | 0.37 | 27 | 0.36 | 120 |
| Adam Eaton | 499 | 10.60% | 15.60% | 0.68 | 11 | 0.342 | 108 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 374 | 10.20% | 22.20% | 0.46 | 3 | 0.332 | 99 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 237 | 7.20% | 11.40% | 0.63 | 0 | 0.319 | 93 |
| Victor Robles | 458 | 5.90% | 23.60% | 0.25 | 16 | 0.314 | 90 |
| Matt Adams | 270 | 7.00% | 35.20% | 0.2 | 0 | 0.314 | 89 |
| Brian Dozier | 346 | 12.40% | 22.30% | 0.56 | 2 | 0.312 | 88 |
| Gerardo Parra | 232 | 6.90% | 19.80% | 0.35 | 6 | 0.291 | 76 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 137 | 9.50% | 19.70% | 0.48 | 0 | 0.277 | 65 |
| Yan Gomes | 273 | 8.40% | 25.30% | 0.33 | 2 | 0.275 | 64 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 57 | 7.00% | 36.80% | 0.19 | 5 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Wilmer Difo | 115 | 9.60% | 18.30% | 0.52 | 0 | 0.254 | 50 |
Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs
The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Tommy Pham | 197 | 18.80% | 17.80% | 1.06 | 8 | 0.407 | 161 |
| Yandy Diaz | 117 | 12.00% | 21.40% | 0.56 | 1 | 0.402 | 158 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 150 | 8.70% | 21.30% | 0.41 | 0 | 0.362 | 130 |
| Eric Sogard | 120 | 9.20% | 18.30% | 0.5 | 2 | 0.353 | 122 |
| Michael Brosseau | 73 | 4.10% | 23.30% | 0.18 | 0 | 0.347 | 120 |
| Austin Meadows | 177 | 5.10% | 29.90% | 0.17 | 2 | 0.346 | 120 |
| Guillermo Heredia | 124 | 6.50% | 23.40% | 0.28 | 0 | 0.337 | 114 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 130 | 3.80% | 21.50% | 0.18 | 5 | 0.332 | 110 |
| Avisail Garcia | 177 | 7.90% | 22.60% | 0.35 | 0 | 0.328 | 107 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 145 | 12.40% | 22.10% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.303 | 86 |
| Daniel Robertson | 96 | 10.40% | 28.10% | 0.37 | 1 | 0.299 | 88 |
| Brandon Lowe | 68 | 2.90% | 52.90% | 0.06 | 0 | 0.282 | 77 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 94 | 11.70% | 23.40% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 75 |
| Michael Perez | 11 | 0.00% | 45.50% | 0 | 0 | 0.269 | 67 |
| Willy Adames | 198 | 6.60% | 27.80% | 0.24 | 1 | 0.245 | 51 |
| Matt Duffy | 66 | 13.60% | 19.70% | 0.69 | 0 | 0.245 | 51 |
| Mike Zunino | 101 | 9.90% | 33.70% | 0.29 | 0 | 0.214 | 30 |
| Joey Wendle | 59 | 6.80% | 25.40% | 0.27 | 1 | 0.168 | -1 |
Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs
With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Mark Canha | 340 | 12.90% | 23.50% | 0.55 | 2 | 0.405 | 160 |
| Sean Murphy | 40 | 10.00% | 27.50% | 0.36 | 0 | 0.394 | 152 |
| Matt Olson | 374 | 11.20% | 25.90% | 0.43 | 0 | 0.391 | 150 |
| Seth Brown | 69 | 10.10% | 27.50% | 0.37 | 1 | 0.379 | 142 |
| Marcus Semien | 545 | 11.60% | 14.30% | 0.81 | 10 | 0.367 | 134 |
| Ramon Laureano | 346 | 6.40% | 26.60% | 0.24 | 9 | 0.361 | 129 |
| Matt Chapman | 491 | 10.20% | 22.80% | 0.45 | 1 | 0.355 | 126 |
| Robbie Grossman | 424 | 12.50% | 17.50% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.307 | 93 |
| Jurickson Profar | 399 | 8.80% | 14.50% | 0.6 | 7 | 0.286 | 79 |
| Chad Pinder | 191 | 4.20% | 25.70% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.28 | 75 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 301 | 8.00% | 22.30% | 0.36 | 2 | 0.272 | 69 |
| Josh Phegley | 239 | 5.00% | 21.80% | 0.23 | 0 | 0.266 | 66 |
| Khris Davis | 383 | 7.30% | 30.80% | 0.24 | 0 | 0.252 | 56 |
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DraftKings Showdown
Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.
This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.
Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.
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