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Brandon Woodruff

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Oct. 3)

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight’s main slate is an 11-gamer that really only has 4 games that truly mean anything. With a Braves win or a Mets loss tonight, the Braves will clinch another NL East title <insert mopey face emoji>. The only other games that really mean anything at this point will be the Brewers vs. Arizona and Philly vs. Houston. The Brewers are in must-win territory at this point with the Phillies having a 2-game edge on the wild card.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Brandon Woodruff vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Coming off a 2 straight losses to the Miami Marlins, the Brewers turn the ball over to their ace in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff is pitching as well as he’s ever pitched. Over his last 4 outings, Woodruff has struck out 42 hitters, while only giving up 4 ER. His 37% K rate over the last month far exceeds anyone else pitching tonight.

With him in a game that matters and their game starting earlier than the Phillies tonight, we can expect Woodruff to be one of the few pitchers that throw a full allotment of innings tonight. He is far and away the SP1 tonight.

George Kirby vs. Detroit Tigers

The last time George Kirby faced the Tigers he went 5 innings, striking out 5 and not allowing a run. My hope is that we see something similar out of him today. At this point of the season, we can’t expect any pitcher outside of the few that have anything to play for to go any longer than a handful of innings. With Kirby priced at $9k on DK, we’ll need him to go about 6 strong and get a handful of strikeouts.

Based on his history, that’s absolutely in play. Especially against a Tigers projected lineup that has just a .292 wOBA vs. righties over the last month. They’ve also hit for limited power with just a .135 ISO vs. them. This is a good spot for Kirby to make his final appearance before the playoffs start later this week.

Joe Musgrove vs. San Francisco Giants

Although the Padres did clinch a playoff spot yesterday, they can’t fully take their foot off the pedal just yet because they have just a one-game lead over the Phillies and can somewhat control their matchup in the first Wild Card round. Joe Musgrove doesn’t have massive K upside but he does have a respectable 25% K rate over the last month.

Facing off against a Giants team playing out the string, Musgrove should be able to dominate in this one. He’ll also be making his final tune-up for the playoffs. At just $8.7k tonight on DK, he’s fairly priced considering his ceiling. He’s reached 30 DK points twice over the last month or so, so there’s definitely some upside here.

At this point of the season, I don’t really trust any pitchers outside of Woodruff. Pitching right now is more of a crapshoot as there’s no reason to have pitchers go long, especially for teams already in the playoffs and those that have been eliminated.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. Corey Abbott

Using the Mets after they just were swept by the Braves and all but losing their shot at the NL East feels a little dirty. Well, it feels a lot dirty. That said, they are still one of the few teams that have anything to play for tonight. While their chances at the NL East are about as slim as slim could be, tonight’s potentially the last game of the season that matters for them. I’m sure the flight home from Atlanta was an uncomfortable one for the Mets last night and I hope it was.

They get a great matchup against a pitcher in Corey Abbott that has struggled in his last couple of starts. Across both starts vs. the Braves, Abbott allowed 8 ER in just 9 innings of work. He allowed 3 homers also across those 2 games. With Abbott, we mostly want to focus on the lefties. Against Abbott this season, lefties have a .536 slugging % and a .387 wOBA. Those numbers get even more exaggerated when he’s on the road like he will be tonight.

Core: My core tonight with the Mets tonight will be Jeff McNeil and Eduardo Escobar. These 2 have essentially been the Mets’ best hitters in recent games, especially Jeff McNeil. McNeil is currently riding an 8-game hitting streak. Over those 8 games, he’s had multi-hit games in 7 of them. His season-long average is all the way up to .326, just a point behind Freddie Freeman for the lead in the NL. Escobar has also been swinging a hot stick for the Mets. He has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 games.

Secondary Pieces/Value: Other Mets I like here will be Brandon Nimmo (potentially his final Mets regular season homestand), Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach provided the majority of the Mets’ offense last night. Of the 3 hitters, he’s probably my favorite tonight as he’s the cheapest.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tommy Henry

The Brewers need a handful of prayers to make the playoffs. One of those prayers was answered with getting to face a beatable pitcher in Tommy Henry. Henry’s last 3 starts have been brutal. He’s given up 17 ER in just 17 innings of work. It doesn’t take a math degree to know that’s a bad ratio. Over his last 2 games, Henry has given up 6 homers. 6, not 5, not 4, not 3, 6! I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits here. Both sides of the plate have been hitting him hard.

Core: My Brewers core will consist of Hunter Renfroe, , Willy Adames, and Andrew McCutchen. These 3 should be hitting at the top of the lineup tonight with a lefty on the mound. Renfroe has really solid vs. lefties over the last month, with a .167 ISO and .341 wOBA. He’s also been one of the more consistent Brewers hitters all year. They’ll need him to step up big time tonight.

Next up will be Willy Adames. Adames, while a little more of a K risk than Renfroe, also has a ton of upside tonight. He’s a little cold at the plate right now, and that happens with him from time to time, but a matchup with Henry is something that can really set him off.

Value: After my core, I’m going to lock in some value with this lineup. Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, and Tyrone Taylor are all incredibly cheap tonight and get the platoon advantage. All 3 are under $2.5k tonight, setting us up for a ton of salary relief in a plus environment. Taylor and Brosseau have both been crushing left-handed pitching over the last month and would be the priority here.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adrian Martinez

Other than padding stats and getting some playing time for the kids, the Angels have little to play for tonight. That said, they get a great matchup against a pitcher in Adrian Martinez that loves, and I mean loves giving up homers. Over his last 24 innings on the mound, Martinez has given up 7.

He also likes giving up hard contact as he’s given up 8 barrels also over that stretch. This is also a spot I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Righties have a .523 slugging % vs. him and lefties have a .481. Both sides can hit him hard.

Core: My Angels’ core will be the usual, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. They are both extremely expensive tonight at over $6k a piece. If I had to pick one, I’d go Trout here. In just 116 games, Trout has been able to put together another amazing season. He’s up to 39 homers and his next one will give him 40 for the third time in his career. It’s scary to think what he could do if he had a fully healthy season and a good lineup to hit in. Maybe next year, right?

Luis Rengifo could also be considered a core piece here. He’s shown some upside this season with 17 bombs. This is a spot where he could absolutely lead off the game with a homer.

Value: There’s also some really solid value in this lineup. Livan Soto is just $2.4k on DK and is coming off back-to-back 3 hit games. While 3 straight games with 3 hits may seem farfetched, he should do well tonight in this spot. Jo Adell is also hot at the plate and is just $2.6k. He’s hit safely in 4 of his last 6.

MLB DFS Summary

Other attackable spots tonight are the Rays vs. Dick Mountain, Blue Jays vs. Dean Kremer, and Dodgers vs. Jose Urena.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 22)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. I will more than likely be paying up for both pitchers tonight as there is no clear-cut safe stack.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Justin Verlander vs. Baltimore Orioles

Justin Verlander gets a strong matchup tonight vs. the Baltimore Orioles. While the Orioles have significantly improved this season, they can still be dominated and that’s what will happen tonight at the hands of Verlander. Verlander continues to age like a fine wine. His age 39 season has been one of the best of his career. His ERA is at an all-time low of 1.78 and his HR/9 is the lowest since 2010.

This is going to be only his second start after a 2-week sting on the IL. His first start could not have been better as he went 5 strong, striking out 9 and not allowing a baserunner. He faced the Orioles at the end of August and struck out 6 in just 3 innings. That was his last start before heading to the IL. Look for him to pick up right where he left off in that start.

Brandon Woodruff vs. Cincinnati Reds

Brandon Woodruff is also a pitcher that gets a solid matchup tonight. This is a Reds lineup that can be had and it’s also a lineup that Woodruff has had success against. Woodruff faced the Reds a week and a half ago and struck out 11 in 6 innings of work. He’s had double-digit strikeouts against the Reds twice this season. He’s also reached double-digit strike outs in 3 of his 5 outings.

The K’s have finally been back for Woodruff and with that, I’ll want to lock him in as one of my MLB DFS starting pitchers. He’s been dominant over the last month, with a 31% K rate and just a 2.48 ERA. Look for him to continue his domination of hitters tonight against the Reds.

Hayden Wesneski vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The young right-hander from the Cubs made his first start last week vs. Colorado and it could not have gone better. He went 7 strong, allowing just 1 ER and striking out 7. While I’m not going to chase a result like that, doing it again against a weak Pirates lineup is not out of the question. The Pirates have some young talent, especially in the likes of star in the making O’Neil Cruz.

That said, they are also a free-swinging team that strikes outs a lot, and by a lot, I really mean a lot. Over the last week, the Pirates have had a nearly 39% strike-out rate. If you’re looking to go cheap with one of your starting pitchers tonight, going with Wesneski is a good path to go down. It’s risky, but the reward may be worth it.

I also really like Shane Bieber tonight. McKenzie was able to absolutely dominate the White Sox last night. There’s definitely a scenario where Bieber can do the same.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Michael Wacha

The Yankees exploded last night vs. the Pirates for 14 runs. While I don’t see the same exact thing happening tonight, I do expect them to put up a decent amount against Michael Wacha. We have 2 teams tonight on the polar opposite ends of the standings. The Yankees have a 6.5-game lead with just 14 games to play and the Red Sox are dead last in the AL East. The Yankees have their foot on the pedal right now to increase their lead so they can be the AL East champs.

While Wacha hasn’t been bad, I’m going to take my chance tonight on the team that actually has something to play for. Wacha has historically been worse against righties. They have a .449 slugging % against him in his career and a .331 wOBA. Both numbers are significantly higher than righties.

Core: My core tonight with the Yankees will be centered around Aaron Judge. Judge should be an auto-play at this point for everyone, regardless of what his price is. He leads the American League in just about every meaningful offensive stat. He didn’t homer last night, but he did have 2 doubles and scored 2 runs, good enough for 16 DK points. He’s expensive at $6.5k tonight on DK, but wouldn’t it be cool to get a takedown with Aaron Judge in your lineup on the night he gets number 61?

Secondary Pieces: After Judge, I’ll look to include Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson. Of the three, Torres is going to be my favorite. Over the last month, he’s been really solid vs. righties with a .185 ISO and a .372 wOBA. He’s also coming into this game hot as he’s hit safely in 10 straight. Over those 10 games, he’s had multiple hits in 6 of them, including 2 homers last night. Torres is also reasonably priced at $4.1k on DK.

Value: I’m willing to pay up for Judge tonight for a couple of reasons. One, he’s the best hitter in the game. And two, the Yankees have some value in their lineup. Oswaldo Cabrera and Harrison Bader are both under $3k and have competent bats. Cabrera is my favorite of the 2. He has 5 hits in his last 13 AB, including a Grand Slam last night.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Johnny Cueto

This pick may upset a couple of our Discord regulars, but the Guardians should be able to get to Cueto tonight. From a pure ERA and HR/9, this is the best season that Cueto has had since way back in 2016. That said, there are still some metrics for Cueto that have me interested in attacking him. His strikeouts are at the lowest point since of his career. That means he’s also giving up the most contact of his career. Over the last month, he’s given up an 83% contact rate.

While it doesn’t always work out, attacking pitchers that allow a ton of balls in play is normally a recipe for success. Cueto is also coming off one of his worst starts of the year. He just gave up 5 ER in 4 innings of work against the lowly Athletics. That’s the second time in 4 starts that teams have scored at least 5 ER against him. Could father time be catching up to the 36-year-old?

Core/Value: My core with the Guardians tonight will be the 3 guys really hitting the ball well right now, and that’s going to be Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan, and Myles Straw. That’s essentially going to be a 9,1,2 stack. Rosario is the hottest of the bunch, with 14 hits in his last 35 AB. Over that stretch, he has multiple multi-hit games and is reasonably priced at $4.1k tonight.

Next up is Kwan. Kwan is piping hot right now, with 12 hits over his last 4 games. Over those 4 games, he’s had at least q3 hits in 3 of them and has 4 straight games of at least 17 DK points. Straw is going to fit the mold of being a core piece and also a value piece tonight. He’s just $2.2k on DK and is really seeing the ball well right now. He’s hit safely in 10 straight and will look to extend that hitting streak tonight in a solid matchup.

Secondary: After my core, I’ll look to plug in guys like Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez. Ramirez, while not a core for me tonight, is always in play due to his ability to get stats in multiple ways.

Atlanta Braves vs. Ranger Suarez

With a win tonight, the Braves can pull to within a half-game of the Mets in the NL East. They lost a tough one to the Nationals yesterday and will look to rebound against a Phillies team that is clinging to their playoff lives right now. The Braves have been one of the better teams vs. lefties this season. They should be able to get to Suarez tonight.

Suarez has not been great over the last month. His walks are way up with a 4.15 BB/9 and he’s been giving up a ton of medium to hard contact. With Suarez, we really only want the righties here. Righties have a .406 slugging % vs. him and a .328 wOBA. 11 of the 12 homers he’s given up this season have been hit by righties

Core: My core tonight with the Braves will be a bit different as I’m not going to force Austin Riley in. I am though going to look to force in Dansby Swanson and Travis d’Arnaud. Both of these guys have crushed lefties over the last month. Swanson has an ISO of .250 and wOBA of .360. d’Arnaud has a .412 ISO and a .525 wOBA. Both of these guys should be able to hit well off of Suarez tonight.

Value: After my core with the Rangers, I’ll look to get in Riley if he fits and then William Contreras, Ronald Acuna, and then Robbie Grossman for value. My reasoning for not building around Riley tonight is that he’s cooled off pretty dramatically. That said, he’s still been a powerhouse vs. lefties this season and could go off at any time.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will be the Red Sox vs. Taillon and Astros vs. Bradish.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 09/28

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. We are in the home stretch and there are only a handful of teams that are playing for anything right now. NYY, BOS, TOR, Sea, and OAK are all battling for the 2 wild card spots in the AL. Braves and Phillies are battling for the NL east and the Dodgers are currently chasing the Giants for the NL West crown. At this point of the year, my pitchers will mostly come from those teams as we’re certain to get the regular outings out of them.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals have to lose at some point right? Well I think it’s today against the Brewers Ace. Over the last 30 days Woodruff has been superb. He has a 2.73 xFIP to go with his elite 32% K rate. He’s going to face a Cardinals lineup today that will be predominantly right handed as they project to have 7 righties in there.

That’s right in Woodruff’s wheelhouse as he has a 34% K rate against righties over the last month. Woodruff has faced the Cardinals 3 times now and has 2 double digit strike out games. I think he brings the Cardinals back down to earth today and makes it a third game with at least 10 K’s.

Chris Sale ($10k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – I’ll be honest, I’m not 100% sold on Sale tonight. He has some warning signs ahead of his match up with the Orioles. His swinging strike rate over the last month is just 11.5% and his K rate is under 21%. Also, the Orioles at times this year have been extremely solid vs. lefties. This has the makings of a trap play.

That said, the Red Sox are in must win mode and I think Sale dials it up a notch tonight. Sale has been using his slider more than 30% of the time to both sides of the plate. If his slider is on point tonight, he’ll be fine. Outside of Mullins, the entire Orioles projected lineup has whiff rates greater than 30% against slider.

Zack Wheeler ($10.7k) vs. Atlanta Braves – This is going to be the fifth time that Wheeler faces the Braves tonight this season it’s by far the most crucial. With the Phillies currently on the outside looking in, this is a must win for them. A loss and they fall back 3.5 games with just 5 to play. In those 4 prior match ups Wheeler struck out 34 in 26 innings of work. He has the ability to mow down this lineup.

My hope here is that he relies more on his slider tonight than he normally does. The projected lineup tonight for the Braves struggles mightily vs. it as they have a handful of guys that 40% whiff rates against it. Last time out vs. the Braves he threw it 40% of the time and struck out 8 in 7.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Bruce Zimmermann – The Red Sox are coming off a demoralizing series against the Yankees. They were swept in Fenway which put a huge damper on their playoff hopes. While they are still holding on to the Wild Card spot, the Blue Jays are now just a game behind them. The scheduling gods are here to the rescue as they get a 3 game series against a 106 loss team in the Orioles.

Zimmermann hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-June. When he was up the major we really wanted to focus on the righties as he gives up way more fly balls to them and hard hits. He had a fly ball rate of 36.5% vs. righties. My main areas of focus here will be Hernandez ($3.6k), Renfroe ($3.6k), and Bogaerts ($3.7k). One way to differentiate this stack is to bring Iglesias ($2.3k) into the mix.

He’s cheap, gives you a wrap around with Hernandez and Renfroe, but most importantly he’s one of their hottest and most consistent hitters right now. Over the last week he has a .945 OPS and .404 wOBA. He’s not going to hit you a homer but he gets on base and stands a good chance to score a run or two if this stack goes off.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tyler Alexander – The Twins vs. Alexander today is my regression type play. Over the last 30 days Alexander has just a 3.2 ERA. That’s pretty good. There’s always, always more to it than meets the eye. He has several things that really stand out to me. His swinging strike rate is just 6.9%, has a 45% fly ball rate, and a 35% hard hit rate. Guys are hitting him hard and putting the ball in the air. It’s only a matter of time before all of those caution signs add up to a blow up outing for Alexander.

Against a pretty solid, but underperforming Twins lineup it very well could be tonight. Alexander’s main pitch to righties is his cutter. Buxton ($4k)and Polanco ($3.5k) profile extremely well against this pitch. Buxton has a .933 slugging % against cutters this year. Other guys I’d like here are Donaldson ($3.2k) and Rooker ($2.2k). Both guys have been hitting lefties well over the last month.

Kansas City Royals vs. Aaron Civale – Since coming off the IL Civale has been an inconsistent mess. He looked dominant against the Yankees but gave up 7 ER to both the Brewers and the White sox. Righties have been his Achilles heal as they have a .514 ISO against him since his return. They are just teeing off on him and the Royals have a few righties we’ll want to grab.

Any Royals stack has to start with Salvador Perez ($3.5k). He’s currently tied with Guerrero for the major league lead in homers with 46. I have no doubt that over the last week he’s going to give it his all to get the magic number of 50. I’ll also want to grab Merrifield ($3.4k) and Dozier ($2.5k). Dozier has a .333 ISO against righties over the last month and is extremely cheap.

I didn’t write up the Rockies as one of my top stacks but they are also in a great spot vs. a pitcher in Corbin that has home run tendencies. They are also way too cheap for the environment tonight. If you go Rockies you want the right side of the plate as Corbin is giving up way more power to them. Righties have a .269 ISO against him in September.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We are in the home stretch folks. It’s the last week of the season. We’ll want to focus on the teams in the hunt with our pitching. As it stands, my lean is either Wheeler or Woodruff. I love Sale as a pitcher, but I’m nervous about the match up tonight. Red Sox will be my priority tonight as they get a great match up and have something to play for.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 09/21

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – On paper the match up isn’t great for the highest priced pitcher on the slate. Cardinals are a solid lineup that over the past month has only struck out 23% of the time vs. righties. That said, we saw last night that they are susceptible to strike outs against strike out pitchers. Peralta was able to fan 9 in just 6 innings of work.

W/ Woodruff we have very similar strike out upside to Peralta, if not greater. Over the last 30 days Woodruff has a near 32% K rate. No pitcher on tonight’s slate has the pure K upside that Woodruff has. However, you could make a strong case tonight on FD to fade him due to him being the only arm over $10k. If he fails and the masses gravitate towards him you’d be a step ahead of your peers.

Jordan Montgomery ($8.8k) vs. Texas Rangers – Montgomery might be my favorite arm tonight (this says more about the slate than it does about Montgomery). Cortes was able to strike out 7 Rangers last night in just 4.1 innings last night. While I don’t expect Montgomery to strike out the Rangers at the same pace, I do expect him to go a little deeper than Cortes did. With him going deeper I think we can get Montgomery up to 6 innings with 5-6 strike outs. If he does Montgomery could be close to the top tonight when all is said and done.

Alek Manoah ($9.6k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Manoah very well could get tagged with a negative number. The Rays are a deep lineup, especially against righties. That said, Manoah has faced the Rays 3 times now on the year and has struck out 29 rays in just 18 innings of work.

In his last outing he dominated them with 10 K’s in arguably his best start in the majors. He made an adjustment in his pitch mix last outing and if he does it again he should do well. He threw his slider 39% of the time in his last outing vs. the Rays. It’s a pitch that guys like Cruz, Arozarena, and Zunino really struggle with. If he continues down that path tonight with his slider, we’re looking at a ceiling game.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Oakland Athletics vs. Marco Gonzales – Over the last 30 days Gonzales has a 6.13 xFIP and just a 14.9% K rate. He’s given up 8 homers and 10 barrels over that stretch. While he’s had a few good games over the last month, some of it has been a mirage. There are some numbers that are telling me there’s regression coming. His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA and he’s giving up a ton of contact with contact rate of nearly 85%.

He’s going to get shelled at some point and I think tonight’s the night against a solid Athletics lineup. We want to attack Gonzales with righties and the A’s should throw out a lineup that has 8 righties in it. Righties have a .326 ISO against Gonzales over the last month. We’re talking about a nightmare scenario tonight.

The guy I’m going to build around is Matt Chapman ($3.5k). Over the last month Chapman has been crushing lefties with a .474 ISO. I’m not in the business of calling homers, but there’s a good chance Chapman homers tonight. Other guys I like here are Harrison ($2.9k), Marte ($3.8k), and Canha ($3.2k). They’re all solid against lefties and have historically hit sinkers well.

Atlanta Braves vs. Luke Weaver – Weaver’s not an awful pitcher but he’s a pitcher with a clear weakness. Lefties. Over the last 30 days lefties have been crushing him. They have a .480 ISO and .430 wOBA. They also have a 52% hard hit rate against him. This is a match up that we want to exploit and the Braves have several lefties that we can do that. The guys I’m focused on here are Freeman ($3.9k), Albies ($3.8k), and the underpriced Eddie Rosario ($2.8k).

Rosario is about $500 under what he should be priced for this match up. Over the last month he has a .382 ISO against righties and a .425 wOBA. He’s my anchor here. If the Braves can get to Weaver early and we get the Diamondbacks bullpen this sets us up for a huge night. The Dbacks bullpen is one of the worst in the league.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jake Woodford – It’s only a matter of time before Woodford has a blow up game. It’s coming and I think it comes tonight. Here’s why I think he’s due. He has an 88% contact rate and a 46% fly ball rate. So he’s giving up a ton of fly balls. Those fly balls will eventually find the seats. His xFIP is also telling us it’s coming. It’s sitting at a 4.99 over the last 30 days while his ERA is at 2.03. When I see that big of a difference between the 2 I see a big red flag.

I’m looking at the lefties in this match up as they have a 64% fly ball rate vs. him over the last month. Guys like Narvaez ($2.4k), Vogalbach ($2.3k), Escobar ($3.7k), and Wong ($3.5k) really peak my interest here. They’ll all have the platoon advantage tonight and all have fly ball rates in the upper 30%’s or higher. Fly ball hitters plus fly ball pitchers equal a match made in heaven.

I also really like the Cubs vs. Jax tonight. Jax has looked overmatched at the major league level. The only reason I didn’t write them up as a top 3 stack is that the wind is expected to blow in heavily tonight at Wrigley. If for some reason the weather changes, I may bump up the Cubs higher.

The Astros also should have another monster night tonight. Look for them to dominate Naughton.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching isn’t great tonight but I like the spots of the 3 I’m focused on. Because pitching is cheap we should have no issues fitting in the top Braves bats w/ the A’s. The teams also align really well.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/31

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($10.6k) vs. San Francisco Giants – The Giants bats have been scuffling a bit of late and I’ll look to take advantage of that with an ace in Woodruff. Over the past 30 days Woodruff has been pretty dominant.

He has a 29% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP. Batters have just a 22% hard hit rate against him over that stretch as well. This is a match up that lines up really well for him too.

The Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup. During the month of August Woodruff has a 36% K rate against lefties. Really like Woodruff’s chances of having a solid night tonight.

Blake Snell ($9.4k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Dominant Snell is back in the picture. After a pretty slow start to the year we’re back to seeing the Ace Snell. Over the last 30 days he has a pretty insane 37% K rate.

He’s faced the Diamondbacks twice over that stretchand has struck out 6 and 13. There’s a little bit of a concern as he did throw a season high 122 pitches in his last outing so it’s possible that the Padres give him a bit of a shorter leash. That said, the Padres blew their bullpen last night. Look for the Snell to continue his dominant stretch.

Tarik Skubal ($9k) vs. Oakland Athletics – Skubal is essentially on part 4 of his season. The first part was awful, the second part was dominant, and the third part was just ok. He’s back into that dominant part with a 30% K rate over the past month.

He has 4 straight starts of at least 33 FD points. Those 4 outings were against teams that have been doing really well against lefties. One of his biggest out pitches is his slider. If it’s on tonight he has a really good chance of shutting down an A’s lineup that isn’t great against sliders. Multiple hitters in this lineup have whiff rates greater than 30%.

With Buehler’s price being over $11k tonight I have a really hard time using him against a solid Braves lineup. Braves have been great against righties. While Buehler should do a nice job of shutting them down, there’s a better chance of him having a non ceiling game than an actual ceiling game.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin – I’ll start this by saying that the Blue Jays have been pretty disappointing of late. Over the past week they’ve scored greater than 3 runs only twice. The good thing for us is that one was last night and they’ll be facing a brutal Orioles rotation and bullpen today and tomorrow.

On the docket for the Blue Jays tonight is Akin. Over the last month he’s allowing a 52% fly ball rate and a 30% hard hit rate. Akin gives up pretty similar numbers to both sides of the plate so my focus is going to be on the guys that have been hitting lefties well.

Semien ($4k) has a .273 ISO against lefties over the past 30 days and Hernandez ($3.7k) has a .318. In a much smaller sample size due to injuries Springer ($3.8k) has an .818. These 3 are my core tonight on FD.

Kirk ($2.1k) is going to give us the cheap exposure to this lineup and he’s been pretty good against lefties. On the year he has a .398 wOBA against lefties. Blue Jays stand a chance to put up a big number tonight.

Chicago White Sox vs. Bryce Wilson – Wilson is a low strike out arm that gives up a ton of contact, while also giving up a healthy amount of fly balls. This is the type of pitcher that we attack in DFS.

Wilson’s biggest weakness is lefties. Over the past month they have a 47% fly ball rate while he’s only been able to strike out 13% of them. The guy here I’m going to prioritize is Yasmani Grandal ($3.2k). Since coming off a lengthy stay on the IL he’s been on a tear. He has 3 homers in 3 games and 6 hits in just 12 AB.

Yoan Moncada ($3.5k) is also another guy I’ll want to prioritize here. He gets the platoon advantage and has also been hitting well. Outside of the two guys that are hitting from the left side of the plate I’ll also look to fit in Abreu ($3.9k) and Robert ($4k).

Both guys are also super hot with OPS’s greater than 1.300 over the past weak and multiple barrels. Only the Cubs have surrendered more batters to perfect lineups over the last month than the Pirates. Look for that number to increase tonight as the White Sox put up a big number.

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Lyles – I don’t often use Rockies outside of Coors because they are typically a much different team away vs. home. That said, tonight they get to take on a pitcher in Lyles who is the epitome of a gas can.

They will also provide something we need, value. Lyles over the last month has been getting hammered by lefties. They have a .375 ISO against him. He’s given up a 51% fly ball rate and a 61% hard hit rate to them. We attack Lyles with lefties.

My focus here will be the bottom of the Rockies lineup. Nunez ($2.1k) and Hillard ($2.4k) have both been crushing righties with ISO’s over .300 in August. Both McMahaon ($3.2k) and Tapia ($2.5k) have wOBA’s over .350 against them in August.

Rockies lefties are going to provide us the value we need to get a top pitcher and either bats from either the Blue Jays or White Sox.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We have a slate loaded with pitching tonight. It honestly feels like forever since we’ve had this many arms to choose from. From a bats perspective my core will come from either the Blue Jays or White Sox as they both have great match ups. I’ll look to Colorado to get some value as they get to take on Lyles tonight.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, August 12

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have an 8 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.

On this fine Thursday we have an 8 game slate during the day that I’ll be focusing on . One thing is clear. Brandon Woodruff ($10.2k) is a must play. He’s certain to be chalk, but I just don’t see how it’s chalk we can avoid.

Burnes struck out 15 Cubs last night. Over the past week the Cubs are striking out 40% of the time. That is just an insane mark. Woodruff doesn’t have the same level of strike out ability as Burnes, but he’s still someone that can dial up some strikeouts. In his last 24 innings of work he has a 31% K rate. He has more upside than anyone else on the slate tonight and I’ll be ok eating the chalk on this one. Fade at your own risk.

SP2 is where it gets tricky today. My lean right now is to use Tanner Houck ($8.7k) vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Houck has been pretty dominant over the past month. He has a 40% K rate in 15 innings of work and a near 12% swinging strike rate. He gets a tough match up vs. the Tampa Bay rays but if we dive into pitch data he matches up pretty well.

Houck is going to throw his slider around 37% of the time. Outside of Austin Meadows, this is a pitch that the Rays struggle with. As a whole, they have a high K rate and limited power vs. the pitch. Houck’s slider has been great with a 42% whiff rate. If it is on today, he should have some serious upside.

The other pitcher I’m considering is John Means ($9.2k). Means now has 4 starts behind him since his DL stint. The first 2 weren’t very encouraging as they had a combined 4 strike outs. His last 2 starts have been much better with a K% greater than 20 in each. One of those starts was against the Tigers and he struck out 6 in 6 innings.

Before his injury Means was pitching like an ace and his starts have gotten progressively better since he’s been back. Means bread and butter pitch is his changeup and if it’s on point today, he shouldn’t have any issues with the Tigers as it’s not a pitch they do well with. I would not be shocked if he was the highest scoring pitcher on today’s slate.

The first place I’m looking to for offense today will in Pittsburgh with the St. Louis Cardinals vs. JT Brubaker. Cardinals are poised to have a big day. Over the past month Brubaker has been getting hit extremely hard with a near 42% hard hit rate.

He’s been relying on his fastball a lot more of late and has been throwing it more than 50% of the time. It’s been a pitch that he’s given up the most power to this year with a .559 slugging % and 40% hard hit rate. The guys on the Cardinals that excel the most against the fastball will be my targets.

Tyler O’neill ($3.6k) is one of the best of the bunch with a .594 slugging % and .418 wOBA against fastballs this year. Paul Goldschmidt ($4.9K) and Paul DeJong ($3.7k) also have slugging %’s greater than .475 on the year to fastballs and will be targets of mine today. Dylan Carlson ($3.1k) is the hottest Cardinal right now with a .421 wOBA over the past week. I’ll be sure to squeeze him in as well.

My next stack on DK this afternoon will be the Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Foltynewicz. Folty is a favorite of mine because he just gives up so much hard contact and so many fly balls. His xFIP over the past month is an astounding 7.12.

Any time he is on the hill you should consider taking batters against him. That’s what I plan on doing today. Although Folty is awful to both sides of the plate, he’s really taken it to the next level against lefties this year. Lefties have a .304 ISO against him this year.

Kyle Seager ($4.4k)is locked in right now with 3 homers over the past week and will be sure to be in my lineup. Jarred Kelenic ($2.3k) is finally coming around at the plate with a .905 OPS this week. He’s near min priced and gets a tasty match up against Folty today. Other guys I will like here are Abraham Toro ($3.8k) and J.P. Crawford ($3.6k).

Other teams that are poised to do well today that I will sprinkle in some batters from are the Oakland A’s vs. Eli Morgan and potentially some Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Wade LeBlanc.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

My pitching today will be focused on chalky Brandon Woodruff, Tanner Houck, and John Means. With these games being during the day I’ll let opposing lineups determine which SP2 I use. My bats will be focused on both the Cardinals and Mariners. Both teams have the potential to put up very big numbers today as they are facing the worst pitchers on the day and line up very well.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/11

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 11 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

It’s the final slate before the All Star break so let’s make it a good one. We have a bunch of solid mid-tiered options today on the hill and a few good hitting environments.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Jose Berrios ($9.9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Berrios is a little more expensive than I’d like, but he gets a great match-up today vs. the K heavy Detroit Tigers. On the year the Tigers have really struggled against righties. They have a near 27% K rate while hitting for limited power.

If we look at more recent data, we can see that the Tigers have really been struggling of late. Over the past week they have a 29% K rate. Even Happ was able to man handle them recently. Berrios himself is coming off a 10k performance. It was the first time he reached double digits all year. Can he do it again? The match-up is out there for him a repeat.

Pablo Lopez ($9.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – The Braves lineup took a huge blow last night when they lost Acuna for the year. He is the catalyst of their lineup. My hope is that Lopez can take advantage of that huge today. Also without Acuna in the lineup today we don’t run the risk of Lopez throwing at him today and getting tossed after the first batter.

Lopez has been really solid of late. He’s been dialing up more K’s over the past month as his K rate is sitting at 31% compared to 26% on the year. While the Braves have solid numbers vs. righties this year, they also have an above average K rate sitting at 25%. Acuna being out will only raise that number. Look for Lopez to have a solid day today and end up being one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Brandon Woodruff ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – Woodruff is getting to take on a lineup today that has been striking out a ton over the past week. In the last 7 days the Reds have a 27% K rate. I want to take advantage of that today and the good thing for us is that we get a strike out pitcher against them.

Woodruff on the year has a 31% K rate. If we take out his last start against the Mets (we’ll get to them shortly) Woodruff has been great of late. He struck out 9 Dbacks and then 8 Cubs in back to back starts. I like Woodruff to get back on the saddle today and rack up his 8-9 K’s against the reds.

While I didn’t write him up, Robbie Ray ($10.4k) is also in play for GPP’s. He’s an elite strike out pitcher taking on a team that K’s a high clip vs. lefties. They also hit for a ton of power against lefties so it’s a high boom or bust pick.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Mets vs. Chase De Jong – It’s been close to two months since I wrote the Mets up as a stack. Their lineup had been beaten and bruised for the better part of that time. Well they are finally healthy and I want to see what they can do against Chase De Jong.

De Jong has really struggled over the past 30 days (longer than that). He’s giving up a ton of hard contact 41% to go along with a high fly ball rate of 41%. He’s someone that we can exploit with both sides of the plate as he has an ISO greater than .240 to righties and lefties.

Alonso ($3.8k) is the key to this lineup as he’s been red hot of late. He has 4 homers in the last week to go along with 5 barrels. Lindor ($3.2k) has also been better of late and I’ll want to include him in any Mets stack I use today. Look for the Mets to put up a big number today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Rich Hill – This is not a match made in heaven for Hill today. First, let’s look at what Hill has done over the past month. 6 homers in his last 24 innings of work and a 5.56 xFIP. Over his last 5 games he’s given up 4 ER 3 times. I want to try to take advantage of this today.

If we look at pitch make up, we can absolutely exploit him. He throws his curveball more than 40% of the time to righties. Blue Jays have a bunch of guys that hit for a ton of power against left handed curveballs. Springer ($3.7k) has a .533 ISO against it, Hernandez ($3.2k) has a .292 ISO, and Grichuk ($3.1k) has a .267 ISO. These guys should be able to do some damage against Hill today.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta faces his former teammates for the first time. I think by the end of the day Pivetta wishes he was still on that Phillies team. Pivetta has been giving up home runs at a pretty high pace of late. In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 8. If we add in the fact that he has a 3.54 BB/9 we know that here’s a pitcher we can take advantage of.

Pivetta is throwing his 4 seamer more than 50% of the time to both sides of the plate this year. Up and down the lineup this has been a pitch that the Phillies have had a ton of success against this season. Realmuto ($3.3k), Hoskins ($3.7k), and Miller ($2.6k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 to the pitch this year. Harper ($4.1k) is sitting at .493. It’s really going to be a tough day for PIvetta. With the Phillies rolling of late and a great match-up they are my top stack today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Sunday always presents us with the added risk of veterans sitting due to it being getaway day. With it being the final day before the All Star break, it’s even more important to keep an extra eye on lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday, 5/18

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel.

We have a couple of guys that are in the ace or near ace category to go along with some bats that are in some really nice match-ups tonight.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Brandon Woodruff ($11k) vs. Kansas City Royals – I don’t make it a habit of picking on the Royals. They can have a pretty stingy offense but against righties this season they’ve been pretty mediocre. They are sporting a 26% K rate, a .283 wOBA, and a wRC+ of just 77. These metrics tell us they are a very attackable team, especially when going against a stud like Woodruff.

If it wasn’t for Corbin Burnes, Woodruff would be the ace of the Brewers staff. He has a 33% K rate, a 2.7 xFIP, and has only given up 3 homers in 49 innings of work this season. With the Royals struggles against righties this season, I see no reason why Woodruff won’t continue his dominance tonight. In 3 of his last 4 starts he’s scored over 50 FD points. There’s a good chance he makes 4 out of 5 tonight.

Zack Wheeler ($10.4k) vs. Miami Marlins – Wheeler has shown massive upside at times this year with multiple games over 50. Tonight he has a match-up that should afford him the opportunity to have one of those upside games. Marlins for the season, just like the Royals, are K’ing at a 26% clip this year to righties. They have also struggled to garnish much power to righties.

Over his last couple of starts Wheeler has shown an increase in his slider usage. If he keeps it up tonight, he should have one of those ceiling games. In looking at the Marlins projected lineup, it’s a pitch the team does not project well against. Not a single batter has a whiff rate under 32% and most are in the mid 40% range. I really like Wheeler’s chances to have himself a game tonight.

JT Brubaker ($7.4k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – We’ve seen the Cardinals struggle at times against righties this season. While their K rate is about at average at 24%, their power numbers against righties tells us that the damage they’ll do will be limited. Brubaker himself has been pretty decent this year. He has a very respectable 3.34 xFIP and K rate of 25.5%. I don’t think you’ll need to go here tonight, but if you want to load up on bats you could do a lot worse than the spot that Brubaker is in.

MLB DFS: The Bats

New York Yankees vs. Mike Foltynewicz – I like to pick and choose my spots when using the Yankees. Tonight is a night the Yankees should find success. They’re facing off against a pitcher that has trouble keeping the ball in the park this season.

Folty only has 2 starts this season in which he didn’t give up a homer. He’s giving up a ton of hard contact at nearly 40% and has a low swinging strike % of only 7.9%. So we have ourselves a pitcher that doesn’t miss many bats and gives up a lot of hard contact to boot. Let’s attack him.

His main pitch is his 4-seamer which he throws more than 37% of the time. If the Yankees use a similar lineup to last night, I really like the chances of DJ LeMahieu ($3.3k), Luke Voit ($2.8k), Aaron Judge ($4.5k), and Gio Urshela ($2.7k) having solid nights. All profile great against this pitch and outside of Judge, it’s a very affordable stack.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matt Harvey – The Harvey show came back down to earth last week against the Mets. While Harvey has been better this season, he hasn’t been great. Outside of his last game against the Mets, he’s really been able to avoid giving up big innings. In looking at his advanced metrics he’s been skirting the line of getting tagged. He has a really low swinging strike rate and giving up a decent amount of medium to hard contact.

Rays have put up solid numbers vs. righties this year. They have a .706 OPS and 105 wRC+. My stack tonight is going focus on the very top of the lineup. Randy Arozarena ($3.1k), Austin Meadows ($3.6k), Ji-Man Choi ($3.2k), and Brandon Lowe ($3.4k). With Choi being back in the mix, this lefty dominant lineup should succeed against a pitcher that’s given up a .219 ISO to lefty batters since 2019.

Chicago Cubs vs. Patrick Corbin – While attacking Corbin with Phillies last week didn’t work out for us, I don’t think lighting will strike twice. Corbin has definitely showed flashes of upside at times this year, but he’s also shown that he’s a pitcher than can be attacked. He has a fairly high hard hit rate of 34.8% this season and has given up 10 long balls.

The Cubs have a bunch of guys in the lineup that do really well against southpaws. Although they are K’ing a pretty high rate to lefties this year, the Cubs are also showing off the power with a .192 ISO and a .760 OPS. Cubs should be able to put up a big number tonight.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This is going to be a fun slate. We have 2 clear cut top pitchers tonight in solid match-ups but we also have some offenses that have the potential to put up big numbers. Weather may be a concern in some spots but nothing that looks like it could cause games to get PPD as of yet.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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10/1 MLB DFS Wild Card Slate, Showdown, and Prop Picks

6 years ago

written by

It always amazes me how quickly the MLB season flies by. It seems like one day you are studying for upcoming seasonal drafts and the next you are sitting here writing a Wild Card round article. This 10/1 MLB DFS piece will guide you through everything you need to know to succeed for the Tues-Wed slates. With Incendiary’s “Cost of Living” playing in the background, and a hopeful Dodgers future, let’s get this show on the road.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Pitching

The most important fact to consider when selecting postseason pitching is, they are all top starters. Especially in one game situations. All four pitchers on this slate are viable options, even if the starter for Oakland has not been officially named yet. But, if it is Sean Manaea like we all think, for his salary on DK he is just as much in the mix. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate I would have no problem locking him in while I wait to see what develops.

Max Scherzervs. Milwaukee Brewers (Tuesday)

$11,000 FD / $9,400 DK / $12,600 DK-SD / $18,900 DK-SD-CP

This game could be a lot higher scoring than most believe. The Brewers are striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs this season while coming in 15^th in MLB in wOBA. We do have several factors in play here for this game, the first being that Scherzer’s ERA has more than doubled in the second half. There was serious talk of possibly not having him start this game, but Dave Martinez decided Mad Max’s 1.50 ERA versus the Brew Crew with 10 strikeouts over six innings was enough to give him the nod.

The next big factor to look at is the Brewers themselves. The get a negative ballpark shift playing on the road in Washington despite Scherzer’s higher home ERA. Plus, let’s not forget the monster known as Christian Yelich is on hiatus due to injury. All numbers point to a low scoring game to be decided by the bullpens. On this 10/1 MLB DFS slate every starter is viable, especially the Scherz.

BrandonWoodruff vs. Washington Nationals (Tuesday)

$6,200 FD / $6,400 DK / $10,000 DK-SD / $15,500 DK-SD-CP

Much like Scherzer on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate Woodruff benefits from the same positive park shift. However, the Nationals are seventh in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. This season Woody dominated the Nats in his only start, facing them back in May, striking out nine batters over six innings while only allowing one earned run. Keep in mind he is working his way back from injury and more than likely will only pitch a few innings.

Charlie Mortonvs. Oakland Athletics (Wednesday)

$9,500 FD / $8,600 DK

As much as I would love to see Oakland advance here the numbers are really telling me differently. Against the Athletics over two starts, Morton has a 0.68 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 1/3 innings. Much like tonight’s game this one is also going to come down to the bullpens. With the A’s batting .207 over the last seven days Morton is going to feast on them tomorrow night.

2019 Starting Pitching Stats

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Max Scherzer	Nationals	172.1	12.69	1.72	0.94	40.80%	11.60%	2.92	2.88
Charlie Morton	Rays	194.2	11.1	2.64	0.69	48.20%	10.40%	3.05	3.28
Brandon Woodruff	Brewers	121.2	10.58	2.22	0.89	44.60%	12.00%	3.62	3.36
Sean Manaea	Athletics	29.2	9.1	2.12	0.91	41.20%	10.70%	1.21	3.98

Hitting

So, here is the trick to selecting offense on this 10/1 MLB DFS slate, attack the bullpens. With top tier starters taking the mound often it’s that dicey bullpen who ends up surrendering runs. This means we need to look at their numbers. My favorite stat for this is second half bullpen ERA. By this point in the season most guys are wearing out, especially on teams that have found themselves in high leverage situations leading up to this point. Like most Wild Card teams. I expect a lot of pitching changes tonight, much more so than tomorrow night, so I would focus my offense on the Brewers-Nationals game.

Second Half Bullpen Stats

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Nationals	234.2	8.94	3.72	1.61	37.30%	15.30%	4.83	4.88
Brewers	284	11.12	3.96	1.43	43.40%	18.00%	3.99	3.96
Athletics	226.2	10.2	3.14	1.23	41.00%	14.00%	3.77	4.08
Rays	328.1	10.75	2.74	1.29	41.90%	15.00%	3.56	3.8

Stack #1: Brewers versus RHPs

As mentioned, this is the game to stack on this two-game 10/1 MLB DFS slate. After locking in Manaea and Morton for tomorrow night you are left with a remaining player salary on DK of nearly $4,300. With the Nationals having one of the worst bullpens in MLB in the 2^nd half, I prefer Milwaukee tonight.

Don’t let he BVP scare you versus Scherzer tonight. If he finds himself giving up a few runs, or in trouble, he will be pulled early.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Keston Hiura	265	6.80%	30.20%	0.23	6	0.418	159
Eric Thames	397	10.60%	30.50%	0.35	3	0.362	122
Yasmani Grandal	438	16.40%	21.90%	0.75	3	0.35	114
Mike Moustakas	403	9.90%	17.60%	0.56	3	0.342	109
Ryan Braun	332	5.40%	23.50%	0.23	8	0.338	106
Trent Grisham	147	11.60%	23.10%	0.5	1	0.319	94
Lorenzo Cain	445	7.60%	17.10%	0.45	9	0.296	79
Ben Gamel	277	10.10%	29.60%	0.34	1	0.284	71
Travis Shaw	219	16.40%	32.90%	0.5	0	0.278	67
Cory Spangenberg	84	7.10%	32.10%	0.22	2	0.27	62
Orlando Arcia	411	7.80%	20.70%	0.38	7	0.261	56
Hernan Perez	127	5.50%	33.90%	0.16	2	0.24	42
Manny Pina	98	9.20%	25.50%	0.36	0	0.233	38
Tyler Austin	69	10.10%	44.90%	0.23	1	0.232	41
Tyler Saladino	52	7.70%	32.70%	0.24	2	0.188	8

Stack #2: Nationals versus RHPs

Brandon Woodruff as nasty as he is may not go deep into this game. His recent starts suggest maybe three innings. Unless of course they have been babying him and plan on letting him go full bore tonight. Either way, I still prefer the Nats offense tonight over both teams tomorrow night.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Juan Soto	438	18.30%	20.30%	0.9	9	0.414	155
Anthony Rendon	475	11.40%	12.40%	0.92	2	0.411	153
Howie Kendrick	244	7.80%	12.70%	0.61	1	0.385	136
Trea Turner	441	7.50%	20.40%	0.37	27	0.36	120
Adam Eaton	499	10.60%	15.60%	0.68	11	0.342	108
Asdrubal Cabrera	374	10.20%	22.20%	0.46	3	0.332	99
Kurt Suzuki	237	7.20%	11.40%	0.63	0	0.319	93
Victor Robles	458	5.90%	23.60%	0.25	16	0.314	90
Matt Adams	270	7.00%	35.20%	0.2	0	0.314	89
Brian Dozier	346	12.40%	22.30%	0.56	2	0.312	88
Gerardo Parra	232	6.90%	19.80%	0.35	6	0.291	76
Ryan Zimmerman	137	9.50%	19.70%	0.48	0	0.277	65
Yan Gomes	273	8.40%	25.30%	0.33	2	0.275	64
Michael A. Taylor	57	7.00%	36.80%	0.19	5	0.26	54
Wilmer Difo	115	9.60%	18.30%	0.52	0	0.254	50

Stack #3: Rays versus LHPs

The numbers suggest the Wednesday games will be lower scoring. For the simple reason I see more innings coming out of Morton in this one, the Rays take precedent over the A’s. There will be more bullpen exposure here, pure and simple.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Tommy Pham	197	18.80%	17.80%	1.06	8	0.407	161
Yandy Diaz	117	12.00%	21.40%	0.56	1	0.402	158
Travis d’Arnaud	150	8.70%	21.30%	0.41	0	0.362	130
Eric Sogard	120	9.20%	18.30%	0.5	2	0.353	122
Michael Brosseau	73	4.10%	23.30%	0.18	0	0.347	120
Austin Meadows	177	5.10%	29.90%	0.17	2	0.346	120
Guillermo Heredia	124	6.50%	23.40%	0.28	0	0.337	114
Kevin Kiermaier	130	3.80%	21.50%	0.18	5	0.332	110
Avisail Garcia	177	7.90%	22.60%	0.35	0	0.328	107
Jesus Aguilar	145	12.40%	22.10%	0.56	0	0.303	86
Daniel Robertson	96	10.40%	28.10%	0.37	1	0.299	88
Brandon Lowe	68	2.90%	52.90%	0.06	0	0.282	77
Ji-Man Choi	94	11.70%	23.40%	0.5	0	0.28	75
Michael Perez	11	0.00%	45.50%	0	0	0.269	67
Willy Adames	198	6.60%	27.80%	0.24	1	0.245	51
Matt Duffy	66	13.60%	19.70%	0.69	0	0.245	51
Mike Zunino	101	9.90%	33.70%	0.29	0	0.214	30
Joey Wendle	59	6.80%	25.40%	0.27	1	0.168	-1

Stack #4: Athletics versus RHPs

With Charlie Morton having dominated the Athletics this season, and the Rays having one of the best bullpens in MLB, this really lowers the offensive production possibilities. This places Oakland at the bottom of the list for me.

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Mark Canha	340	12.90%	23.50%	0.55	2	0.405	160
Sean Murphy	40	10.00%	27.50%	0.36	0	0.394	152
Matt Olson	374	11.20%	25.90%	0.43	0	0.391	150
Seth Brown	69	10.10%	27.50%	0.37	1	0.379	142
Marcus Semien	545	11.60%	14.30%	0.81	10	0.367	134
Ramon Laureano	346	6.40%	26.60%	0.24	9	0.361	129
Matt Chapman	491	10.20%	22.80%	0.45	1	0.355	126
Robbie Grossman	424	12.50%	17.50%	0.72	8	0.307	93
Jurickson Profar	399	8.80%	14.50%	0.6	7	0.286	79
Chad Pinder	191	4.20%	25.70%	0.16	0	0.28	75
Stephen Piscotty	301	8.00%	22.30%	0.36	2	0.272	69
Josh Phegley	239	5.00%	21.80%	0.23	0	0.266	66
Khris Davis	383	7.30%	30.80%	0.24	0	0.252	56

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DraftKings Showdown

Obviously, you are going to want both starting pitchers in all your lineups. The big decision is the Captain spot. I would find a cheap player that steadily produces fantasy points and reserve this spot for him. This allows you the spending power to pretty much have your way with bats. Here is a screenshot of two of my Showdown lineups for tonight as an example.

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This one seems easy for me tonight. Scherzer, despite having some recent woes with earned runs allowed, still strikes out batters at an incredible rate. This one is over all the way.

Brandon Woodruff may not go deep into this one but will certainly achieve this over in a matter of three innings.

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6 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: N.L. Wild Card Prediction!

Phil Naessens 6 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Cash with the Flash Best Bets is back for another day. giving you our best bets of the day. Reilly Opelka won at +145 for a winning day on Monday and we await the results from the Mikhail Kukushkin-Fabio Fognini result to see how much Cash with the Flash Best Bets won for our subscribers on Monday.

Cash with the Flash Best Bets will have plenty of tennis later today but for now, we have the National League Wild Card game on Tuesday.

MilwaukeeBrewers (+160) @WashingtonNationals (-180)

Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62)vs MaxScherzer (11-7, 2.92)

Cashwith the Flash Best Bets: Nationals -180

Cash with the Flash Best Bets thinks this should be a very good baseball game on Tuesday night. Milwaukee has won seven of it’s last 10 but enters this game hoping to end a three-game losing streak, with three consecutive road losses to the last-place Colorado Rockies. Washington has won nine of it’s last 10 and enters this game riding an eight-game winning streak.

Cash with the Flash Best Bets highlights:

Inseven National League Wild Card games, the home team has won just twice.
Milwaukeewas 4-2 against the Nationals this season.
Milwaukeewas 20-7 for the month of September
Washingtonwas 17-11 for the month of September

Woodruff is coming off an injury that cost him nearly two months and has pitched four innings of shutout ball with seven strikeouts. He’ll likely pitch two or three innings tonight and turn things over to the third-best bullpen in baseball over the month of September.

Scherzer has a 1.50 ERA over six innings pitched against Milwaukee this season and the current collection of Brewers is batting .182 over 143 career at-bats. Over the past three seasons, Scherzer is 24-10 with a 2.84 ERA and is 1-0 during the month of October with a 9.00 ERA over five innings pitched at Nationals Park. If Scherzer struggles the Nationals will likely roll with righty Stephen Strasburg or lefty Patrick Corbin.

Injuries:

Milwaukee is withoutoutfielder Christian Yelich and outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun areboth listed as day to day.

Washington isn’t listing anyoneon their injury report for Tuesday evening.

Cash with the Flash Best Bets Prediction:

Washingtonis hot as a firecracker and is fully healthy with a three-time Cy Young Awardwinner on the hill who has a strong home record at Nationals Park. Scherzer willface a Brewers team on a three-game losing streak with a 40-41 record away fromMiller Park this season with a career .182 career batting average and a 24percent strikeout rate against righties this season.

Woodruff isonly going to pitch two to three innings and this will be his first careerplayoff appearance, so I expect some nerves. Washington has a low strikeout andabove average walk rate and I see the Nationals scoring early and hopefullycoasting behind what should be a dominant outing for Scherzer on Tuesday night.

Cashwith the Flash Best Bets suggests playing the Nationalsto defeat the Brewers on Tuesday night.

6 years ago 0 comments

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