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NBA Ghost’s Gems for Eastern Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups begin tonight. The Eastern Conference is much more lopsided than the Western Conference, but there will be many good battles every night.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Eastern Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed below. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

After being dethroned as Conference Champions and NBA Champions last season, the Bucks bounced back with their most successful regular season since 2018-2019. Moreover, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP candidate, following a career-high 31.1 points per game. This roster is stout on both ends of the court, with their only drawback being clutch shooting down the stretch via shot creation.

Matchup

From a defensive standpoint, Miami has the ability to match up with nearly every NBA roster. However, the Bucks are a different beast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most unguardable players the league has to offer. Moreover, Brook Lopez has been terrific both in the paint and from behind the arc. Factor in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, two excellent two-way players, and there is simply too much to contain on a nightly basis. Each player has a respectable defender in front of them, but Miami is most vulnerable on the wing.

Rotation

After winning an NBA Championship only two season ago, Milwaukee is poised for another deep playoff run. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, this roster also features quality two-way players in Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez. Despite missing 49 games this season, Khris Middleton is set to contribute early and often, while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will flank the wings at times. Moreover, Bobby Portis Jr. will be the first big man off the bench, while Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles give Milwaukee veteran options off the bench, if necessary. Jevon Carter may spell Jrue Holiday at times, but don’t count on big minutes at rotations get tighter.

X-Factor

Despite their shortcomings on offense, the Heat’s defensive unit is no joke. Thus, the biggest x-factor in this series will be Brook Lopez. After finishing second in the NBA in blocks per game, Lopez received a nomination for Defensive Player of the Year. Moreover, he had his best shooting season since 2018-2019. In a matchup versus Bam Adebayo, it will be up to Lopez to control the paint on both ends of the court, with the obvious help of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Miami Heat (+750 to win series)

Introduction

It took a game longer than expected, but Miami made the NBA Playoffs. However, this team looks to be one of, if not the worst team remaining. Shockingly enough, they have some quality players where they should not be in this situation, but here they are. Their offense struggled mightily all season long and continued to do so in the Play-In, making their outlook far from optimistic.

Matchup

This is far from a good matchup for the Heat. Milwaukee’s interior defense is one of, if not the best in the NBA. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez await in the paint, while Jrue Holiday puts the clamps on the perimeter. Moreover, Miami plays awfully slow and were the lowest scoring team of the year, creating a hard enough situation thanks to their own shortcomings on offense.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. For some reason, the Heat are insistent on Gabe Vincent starting, but he will continue to have little impact. Other candidates would be Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, but their minutes will vary from game to game.

X-Factor

The off-ball guards will be crucial for Miami. Jimmy Butler will have to force Giannis to guard him on the perimeter to create space for his teammates, but he himself is far from elite out there. Moreover, Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Brook Lopez on the inside, while Jrue Holiday lines up on Tyler Herro. Thus, the duo of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus will have to make every shot count to keep this series close.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston Celtics (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

Following a disappointing loss in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, Boston came back stronger this season. As a team, Boston won six more games this season than they did last year. Moreover, both Tatum and Brown saw increases in their scoring outputs. This roster is sound from top to bottom, and it will come down to avoiding poor performances when it matters most.

Matchup

No matter which way you look at it, Boston matches up well versus Atlanta. They have multiple elite perimeter defenders to counter the Hawks’ star backcourt, while having formidable defenders on the inside as well. Moreover, a one-two scoring punch of Tatum and Brown is one of the best these NBA Playoffs have to offer. Add in two-way players such as Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, whose games are tailored to the playoffs and Boston is in for a serious run.

Rotation

Make no mistake about it, the core of a team that won the Eastern Conference has returned from last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are coming off terrific seasons and will anchor their team once again. Moreover, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are terrific two-way options for another playoff run. Al Horford and Robert Williams III will anchor the paint, while Grant Williams and Derrick White round out the rotation.

X-Factor

The key parts to this Boston rotation will all play important roles in this series. However, assuming both Smart and Brogdon clamp Trae Young, Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be crucial on the inside. Both John Collins and Clint Capela are terrific as the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense. Moreover, Atlanta has shooters on the outside to make Boston pay for defensive mistakes. The interior duo will have to be sharp on the glass and with paint defense, making this a series built for Robert Williams III.

Atlanta Hawks (+750 to win series)

Introduction

After their win in the Play-In, Atlanta dodged a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks in the opening round. However, things do not get any easier, as Boston are the defending Conference champions and are set on making another deep playoff run. Barring extreme circumstances, Atlanta looks destined for yet another early exit, which could bring massive changes in the offseason.

Matchup

Individual and collective matchups do not favor the Hawks. On the perimeter, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon will be a problem for Trae Young. Moreover, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be tough to contain, considering De’Andre Hunter can only guard one of them. Truthfully, Dejounte Murray will have to keep Brown at bay if they want the slightest chance of winning this series, and while it will happen for a game or two, Boston has too big of an edge in all facets of the game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out the rest of the rotation.

X-Factor

With Trae Young having to deal with one of Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon for every minute that he is on the court, Dejounte Murray will have to step up in a big way. If Atlanta wants to succeed in this series, Young needs to be just as good off the ball as he is with it, and Murray needs to be an exemplary playmaker. The pick-and-roll is just as useful with Murray and it is Young, and the former is an excellent counterpart to the rebounding abilities of Boston’s guards.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1000 to win series)

Introduction

It truly is Championship or bust for the 76ers at this point. Not only did they acquire James Harden to flank Joel Embiid, but this roster is built to win now. Aside from Tyrese Maxey, there is no young, promising talent on this team. However, with Boston, Milwaukee, and Cleveland standing in their way, the road to the NBA Finals is as hard as it ever will be for Philadelphia.

Matchup

The matchup for Philadelphia is decent here. Mikal Bridges will be a pain to deal with on the outside, but everything will have to funnel through Joel Embiid in the paint. Nic Claxton is no slouch around the rim, but with the way Embiid gets foul calls in his favor every night, there is a mismatch there. However, where the 76ers could find themselves in trouble is if the surrounding group are not hitting their shots. Assuming Bridges keeps Harden in check, it will be up to Melton, Maxey, and Harris to pitch in on the scoring sheet, something that has held Philadelphia back in the past.

Rotation

Joel Embiid will man the paint for the bulk of the minutes. Moreover, James Harden will have his minutes staggered at times so at least one is on the court at all times, but the two will be featured together a lot. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be the secondary scoring options, while De’Anthony Melton provides a combination of perimeter defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia also has the luxury of using Jalen McDaniels to spell Harris, while PJ Tucker will be a primary defender throughout the series. Georges Niang and Shake Milton will see minutes as they fit, which won’t be very often.

X-Factor

While the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid will lead the charge on offense, Tyrese Maxey has the potential to have the biggest impact in this series. Harden will draw coverage from Mikal Bridges, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. The pick-and-roll will be utilized a ton here to feature Embiid, but Maxey will find himself with open lanes to the rim off the ball when Embiid kicks to the outside.

Brooklyn Nets (+650 to win series)

Introduction

What was supposed to be a Championship season for the Brooklyn Nets took a turn for the worse. Their Big 3 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving was initially broken up when Harden was dealt for Ben Simmons. However, following multiple occasions of Irving having off-court issues, he was dealt to Dallas, while Durant found himself in Phoenix. However, there is a silver lining to the situation. Brooklyn received who could be the very best, if not one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA in Mikal Bridges. While they had a losing record after the trade, Bridges posted 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances for the Nets.

Matchup

This is a tough matchup for Brooklyn but it is certainly winnable. The key will be to switch the right offensive option onto James Harden and for said player to knock down shots when they come. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, not quite. The 76ers now quietly have multiple elite perimeter defenders in De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels. Meanwhile, while his offensive game is as useless as they come, PJ Tucker will likely get the first chance to guard Mikal Bridges. Lastly, Joel Embiid awaits in the paint, which is self-explanatory.

Rotation

The Nets will be in tough to find the right rotation to match Philadelphia. However, Nic Claxton needs to be out there for every minute that Joel Embiid is. Moreover, Mikal Bridges and Spender Dinwiddie seem poised to carry the bulk of minutes. Both Cam Johnson and Royce O’Neale make for good two-ways options, while the former has far more upside offensively. Lastly, Seth Curry and Joe Harris can provide scoring off the bench, while Dorian Finney-Smith will be needed as a perimeter defender. Two young talents in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe await their chance, but it’s unlikely to be here.

X-Factor

Make no mistake about it, the Nets will only go as far as Mikal Bridges can take them. His game is a perfect fit for the NBA Playoffs, but this is reserved for players who are not the top talent on their respective rosters. Thus, Spencer Dinwiddie makes the cut. Not only did he have interesting takes on FanDuel TV recently, but he has a lot to prove. Dinwiddie has been on four teams in the last four years and needs to take control of this offense. The 76ers are exploitable in switches on James Harden, and Dinwiddie will have to find a way to take advantage when opportunities arise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-200 to win series)

Introduction

After the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, expectations skyrocketed for this young Cavaliers team. Surrounded by quality veterans, this team is poised to make a deep run in the NBA Playoffs. While their core four are young, the Cavaliers excel on both ends of the court. Not only can they beat you multiple ways offensively, but they have the best defensive unit statistically this season. In what could be a surprise to some, Cleveland are darkhorse Championship contenders.

Matchup

While the Knicks’ defense is far from elite, they are no slouch as a unit either. Collectively, New York finished 19th in defensive rating and 13th in points per game allowed. However, their true strength is on the glass, finishing second in the NBA in rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers match up well though, with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen leading the charge. Donovan Mitchell figures to lead the charge here in all facets of the offense. Most notably, New York finished 27th in three-pointers allowed per game.

Rotation

Despite having a star-studded starting lineup, the Cavaliers’ bench is thin. Thus, do not expect a ton of surprising minutes here. The backcourt will feature two of the NBA’s young talent in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, Cleveland has another young duo in the frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While one of Lamar Stevens or Isaac Okoro will presumably start games on the wing, Caris LeVert will see more minutes than both of them. Rounding out the rotation will be Dean Wade, Ricky Rubio, and Cedi Osman.

X-Factor

While Donovan Mitchell is the real difference-maker, top players will be avoided in this section. It is no knock on Evan Mobley, but he is featured instead of his teammate. Fresh off a nomination for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s versatility will be needed in this series. He will be the primary defender on Julius Randle and provide offensive upside. Moreover, he is a tremendous rebounder for his age. Should the Knicks go small at times with Randle at the ‘5’ in favor of Robinson, Mobley can shift over if Jarrett Allen needs to consequently sub out.

New York Knicks (+170 to win series)

Introduction

In what could have been a disastrous season for New York, the Knicks came out in a good position. While the top teams in the East were clear, finishing ahead of Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Miami is quite the achievement. After an offseason of turmoil following the max contract signing of Jalen Brunson, the former Maverick had a career year. Not only did Brunson average 24/3.5/6.2 on 49.1% shooting, but he was the clear leader on the court.

Matchup

This matchup could not be worse for the Knicks. Not only did Cleveland rank first in defensive rating this year, but they also allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA. Moreover, the rank first versus multiple player types. Primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and scoring centers all struggle mightily versus the Cavaliers.

Rotation

Expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to stick to his roots. Through his career, he has been notorious for having one of the tightest rotations, no matter the time of year. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be key for the Knicks this series. Moreover, a battle in the paint awaits for Mitchell Robinson. Lastly, the trio of Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart will flank the wings. Look for Isaiah Hartenstein and Obi Toppin to pick up limited minutes in a backup role. Meanwhile Immanuel Quickley will continue to come off the bench, but will play clutch minutes and be in the closing lineup.

X-Factor

Playing against one of the best defenses in the NBA makes this section difficult. The Knicks will need both Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett to step up. While they are far from the flashiest players on offense, they have the best matchup. Lining up against a combination of Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert is as good as it will get versus Cleveland. However, the true x-factor in this series will be Mitchell Robinson. While the big man has had his limitations, this matchup is right up his alley. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are forces on both ends of the court, but Robinson will be needed every step of the way for New York.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Mar. 21)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With approximately ten games left in the regular season, every matchup counts for the NBA playoff picture. Moreover, others are looking to improve their position in the draft lottery. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic (-1.5)

Washington Wizards (+1.5)

The Wizards will be without Kyle Kuzma tonight, meaning the duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Bradley Beal will shoulder the offense. This game environment does not stand out above the others, but it has potential to be a shootout. Washington and Orlando are ranked 22nd and 16th in the NBA in pace, respectively, but also represent two bottom-ten defenses in the league. With Orlando 26th in three-pointers allowed per game, Beal will have ample opportunity to do damage from behind the arc, and has 20 or more points in eight of his last nine appearances.

Orlando Magic (-1.5)

There isn’t much to love about this offense on tonight’s NBA slate, but the Magic are in a good spot versus the Wizards. In balanced lineups, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. all deserve consideration. Meanwhile, Cole Anthony has scored 14 or more points in five straight appearances, logging 27 minutes or more per game in the absence of Jalen Suggs. However, usage is spread out amongst offensive contributors. All five players have a usage rate between 21% and 27% but they do provide a safe floor in a competitive game environment.

Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings (+4.5)

Boston Celtics (-4.5)

In what will certainly be the best game of the NBA slate, Jayson Tatum is poised to lead the pack in scoring. While he has only posted one 30-point effort in his last four games, Tatum has a tremendous matchup tonight. The Kings are the surprise of the Western Conference, if not of the entire league this season. However, while they boast an elite offense, they sit 25th in defensive rating and are last versus the combo wing player type.

Sacramento Kings (+4.5)

While the field has been wrongfully chasing Domantas Sabonis performances in the wrong spots, including last night, tonight is a much better matchup for the leading rebounder in the NBA. Not only is Sabonis the only player in the league to averaging over 12 rebounds per game this season, but he has two triple-doubles in his last five games, while missing two others by a single assist and rebound each time. During that span, Sabonis has averaged 20.4/15.2/9.8 on 55.7% shooting. While yesterday was a much better spot for De’Aaron Fox, as evidenced in projections, Sabonis is the key to a Kings victory here tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans (-11.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 27)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

On small NBA slates, lineup construction and contest selection are crucial. There have already been a few key injuries to alter the landscape of the field, and more are surely to come. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets (-6.5)

Detroit Pistons (+6.5)

While this game does not have the star power of others, it will be crucial to lineup construction on this NBA slate. The Pistons hold two of the most important injuries to monitor: Bojan Bogdanovic and Isaiah Stewart. The two have been labeled as questionable, and this rotation is riddled with value if one or both end up missing this game. In the absence of Bogdanovic, the trio of Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, and Hamidou Diallo will see more offensive looks. Moreover, if Stewart misses this game, the duo of Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman will be two of the best plays in the field versus a dreaded Charlotte frontcourt.

Charlotte Hornets (-6.5)

While most will presumably flock to the best star on this NBA slate in the next game, pairing him with LaMelo Ball is awfully intriguing. Detroit currently ranks 29th in the league versus primary ball handlers and Ball has been terrific lately. Over his last six games, Ball has posted 20 or more points in four appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 25.2/8.8/11.3 on 42.9% shooting during that span, while attempting over 11 three-pointers per night.

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks (+4.5)

Boston Celtics (-4.5)

There is no way around playing Jayson Tatum tonight. He is awfully placed on the pricing grid in the absence of Jaylen Brown (personal), who is set to miss this game at MSG. On the season, Tatum leads the team with a 33% usage rate and 1.40 fantasy points per minute. However, with Brown off the court, Tatum carries an increased 35.5% usage rate and relatively similar production. The point/dollar upside is big versus a Knicks team that ranks 27th in the NBA to ball-handling wings.

New York Knicks (+4.5)

While the duo of Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson will lead this offense, the gem of this offense comes off the bench. Since the acquisition of Josh Hart from Portland, many figured that one of RJ Barrett or Immanuel Quickley would suffer in a lack of playing time. However, the latter has simply been terrific. Over his last seven games, Quickly has scored in double digits in every one of them. Moreover, he has averaged 14.7/42.6 on 52.8% shooting during that span, while logging over 27 minutes per contest.

Honorable Mentions:

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5)
Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Feb. 14)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

With only five games on the NBA schedule, there is no room for error. Moreover, there is a strong possibility that many of the league’s brightest stars are missing in action tonight. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Boston Celtics (+4.5)

The opening game of the NBA slate will have two of the most popular rotations. Jaylen Brown (face) remains out for the Celtics, while Jayson Tatum (illness) is doubtful to play. Moreover, Marcus Smart (ankle) remains out, while Robert Williams III (ankle), Malcolm Brogdon (achilles), and Grant Williams (elbow) are all questionable to suit up. Thus, Boston will have a thin rotation tonight. Derrick White will surely be on of the most popular options in the mid range of the pricing grid. He comes into this one averaging 19.4/4.9/5.2 over his last ten games, scoring in double digits in all ten appearances. Moreover, Payton Pritchard stems to gain offensive looks, as do Sam Hauser and Al Horford, depending on who is available.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Given that Vegas opened this line at a mere 4.5 points in the Bucks favor, there is a strong possibility that Giannis Antetokounmpo misses this one, despite being listed as probable. Should he evidently be available, there is a strong chance he leads the NBA slate in scoring. However, a lack of competitiveness in this game environment is apparent, should Tatum be ruled out. Should Antetokounmpo be ruled out, both Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez will get noticeable increases in offensive production, while Khris Middleton makes for an intriguing play in tournaments given his high volume, despite being on a minutes restriction.

Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns (-3.5)

Sacramento Kings (+3.5)

Since being snubbed from the NBA All-Star game, De’Aaron Fox has been on a tear. Over his last seven appearances, Fox has scored 30 or more points in six games. Moreover, he has averaged 29.7/4.1/7 on 50% shooting during that span. A model of consistency for the Kings this season, Domantas Sabonis has a notable advantage over Deandre Ayton in the paint on both ends of the court. Phoenix struggles on the glass in their own end, ranking 20th in the league in defensive rebounding.

Phoenix Suns (-3.5)

With the return of Devin Booker to the Suns lineup, this offense becomes much more potent. However, this greatly decreases the opportunities of both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton in the pick-and-roll. While Booker continues to ease his way back into action after recovering from a hamstring injury, he figures to be on a soft minutes limit, as he has in his previous two games. In those appearances, which were his first since Christmas Day, Booker played 26 minutes, but took a combined 33 field goal attempts. There is simply no need to force exposure to the Suns on this NBA slate. Rather, keep an eye on the Golden State injury report since they are on the second half of a back-to-back and may sit Klay Thompson, making Jordan Poole a much better play than Chris Paul.

Honorable Mentions:

Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors (-6.5)
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 19)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are only five games on the schedule tonight, but there sure is plenty of firepower. Headlining the main slate is a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals, while Chicago and Detroit face off in an afternoon game overseas. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Golden State Warriors (+5.5)

This is the second time these teams face one another since the NBA Finals. The matchup in December was no letdown, seeing the Warriors take a 123-107 victory at home. Tonight, this game will be overlooked because of interest in other studs at the top of the pricing grid. As popular as Damian Lillard will be because of his recent play, Steph Curry makes for an excellent pivot in tournaments. Since returning from injury, Curry struggled mightily over his first three games back. He averaged a mere 19.7/5/3.3 on 44.9% shooting, hitting only 31.3% of his three-pointers. However, on the second half of a back-to-back and in his fourth game returning, Curry exploded for 41/7/2 versus the Wizards.

Boston Celtics (-5.5)

Should Jaylen Brown miss this game with a groin injury, Jayson Tatum instantly becomes one of the best studs on the NBA slate. On the season, Tatum has averaged 31.1/8.3/4.3 through a 32.9% usage rate. This has resulted in Tatum posting 1.41 fantasy points per minute. However, with Brown off the court, Tatum sees his usage rate increase to 35.8% and his output increases slightly to 1.43 fantasy points per minute. Brown did practice on Wednesday, meaning he in likely to suit up. Thus, both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III make for good plays in a competitive game environment. The former will be on the court in all clutch moments, while the latter has logged 27 or more minutes in three straight games since having his minutes restriction lifted.

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5)

Toronto Raptors (-3.5)

If the NBA slate is starving for value on the pricing grid, then two Raptors will be the primary path to success. Having the luxury of running a tight rotation thanks to players with incredible length, Coach Nick Nurse focuses on seven players on a nightly basis. Thus, two of Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. fit the scenario of a balanced lineup structure. VanVleet has been lights out in the last two games, posting 30+ points in back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Trent Jr. has been logging serious minutes and scoring in bunches as well. Barnes is the unicorn of the roster, playing and guarding positions one through five. If value is needed on this slate, Precious Achiuwa continues to be the first player off the bench and carries a relatively safe floor.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5)

Exposure to this offense depends on two key injury statuses: Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. The latter was ruled out of Wednesday’s game with a groin injury, while the former continues to deal with a recurring hip soreness. Should Gobert be ruled out once again, Naz Reid will be a staple for NBA lineups tonight. Reid carries a 23% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season. However, in four starts this season, he has averaged 20.3/8 this season through a 25.4% usage rate. Moreover, D’Angelo Russell and Jaylen Nowell are in line for big roles tonight, only if Edwards be ruled out.

Honorable Mentions:

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns (OTB)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/12/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

This week’s NBA slates have been determined by injuries. Plenty of key players have been missing for their respective teams, and tonight is no different. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat (OTB)

Milwaukee Bucks (OTB)

The Bucks are on the second half of a back-to-back and there will be injury news to follow. Khris Middleton resumed basketball activities this week, but his timetable to return has yet to be determined. Moreover, Grayson Allen left and did not return to last night’s game versus the Hawks. Thus, there will be plenty of value around Giannis Antetokounmpo. Should the two-time NBA MVP suit up, he’s a strong candidate to lead the slate in scoring. Moreover, Jrue Holiday will be a key part of the offense once again. Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and Jevon Carter will all be in for significant minutes should both Middleton and Allen miss this game.

Miami Heat (OTB)

For what seems to be the first time in franchise history, the Heat are ahead of the game with their injury report. While Bam Adebayo is probable to play, both Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro have already been ruled out, in addition to Caleb Martin. The likely return of Adeabyo will shift Orlando Robinson to the bench, but there will still be plenty of value in this backcourt. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent will be in for a heavy workload alongside Jimmy Butler and company. Moreover, Victor Oladipo takes over the bench unit as its primary scorer. There are different directions to take with this rotation on a small NBA slate, but exposure to the Heat is a must.

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Boston Celtics (-3.5)

Another team on the second half of a back-to-back is Boston. Last night, we saw both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III be ruled out with injuries, but their statuses for tonight remain unclear at the time of writing. Whether the duo returns to the lineup or not is irrelevant to the importance that both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have to this offense on a nightly basis. Over their last 12 games, Brown and Tatum have combined for 61.1 points per game. Moreover, the two lead the team in usage rate at 33.2% and 33.8%, respectively. On a small NBA slate with plenty of value, this game has the star power to fill the rest of lineups.

Brooklyn Nets (+3.5)

Kevin Durant has been having quite the season, He has averaged 29.7/6.7/5.3 while being an NBA MVP candidate, leading the Nets to #2 seed in the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately, an MCL injury is set to sideline KD for approximately one month. It could not come at a worse time, as the Nets are the hottest team in the league right now. However, this will create ample opportunity for Kyrie Irving on offense. On the season, Irving has averaged 26/4.9/4.7 on 48.8% shooting through a 29.1% usage rate, resulting in 1.18 fantasy points per minute. However, with KD off the court, Irving sees his usage rate climb to a whopping 36.3% and his fantasy points per minute increases to 1.35. The stage is set for Kyrie to take the reigns of this offense once again.

Honorable Mentions:

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (-7.5)
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers (OTB)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Portland Trail Blazers (+2.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/03

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Only six teams take the court tonight. Thus, it will be crucial to keep tabs on all injury reports throughout the day. A single injury or rotation change can shift the NBA slate. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5)

Washington Wizards (+7.5)

Exposure to the Wizards offense remains in question, as Bradley Beal has missed the last three games for his team. Should be make a return to the lineup, he carries the most upside on the NBA slate in the mid range of the pricing grid. However, should he miss a fourth straight contest, the duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma will need to carry this offense. Over their last three games without Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis have led the team in usage rate, respectively, combining for 43 points per game.

Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5)

After practicing on Monday, it looks as though Giannis Antetokounmpo is set to return to the lineup tonight for the Bucks. Additionally, despite still missing Khris Middleton, the Bucks will get more reinforcements, with Jrue Holiday returning after a three-game absence. The Wizards recently changing their starting lineup to include both Porzingis and Gafford. Thus, Bobby Portis is set to get a phenomenal matchup off the bench. Portis comes into this one with four double-doubles across his last five appearances, averaging 15/11.2/1 on 43.9% shooting. In the mid range of the pricing grid of this NBA slate, Portis makes for one of the most intriguing options for tournaments.

Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz (-2.5)

Sacramento Kings (+2.5)

Domantas Sabonis picked up right where he left off on New Year’s Day. After averaging 23.4/16.1/8 over his last six games of the calendar year, Sabonis dropped an 18/14/4 double-double on the Grizzlies just a few days ago. Utah currently ranks 29th in the NBA against true centers, while also ranking last in points allowed in the paint.

Utah Jazz (-2.5)

With Collin Sexton slated to miss the next week with a hamstring injury, Malik Beasley will be crucial off the bench. Over his last six games of the calendar year, Beasley scored 10 or more points in four appearances. Moreover, he averaged 14.7/3.3/1.3 on 39.3% shooting. The Kings struggle mightily versus wings, ranking 30th in the NBA to the player type. Additionally, Beasley sees both an increase in usage rate and fantasy points per minute with Sexton off the court.

Honorable Mention:

Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+8.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/13

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Only ten NBA teams take the court tonight but there is plenty of intrigue. Some of the league’s best will face off against one another, while a few short rotations may steal the show. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)

Phoenix Suns (-5.5)

Devin Booker is set to miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury. Thus, both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton will be priorities on this NBA slate. Both have massive point/dollar upside in their respective matchups. With Booker off the floor, Paul will get to run the pick-and-roll even more than usual. Thus, Ayton is a primary benefactor on the inside. Moreover, the Houston Rockets are last against primary ball handlers. Additionally, they rank last in pick-and-roll defense with a league-worst 52.3% effective field goal percentage allowed. No individual statistics needed for this duo; it’s a dream matchup.

Houston Rockets (+5.5)

If you are getting exposure to the Rockets on this NBA slate, duplicate your lineup and make one with Kevin Porter Jr. and another with Jalen Green. However, if choosing between the two, I prefer the latter. On the season, Green leads the Rockets with a 28% usage rate and has averaged 21.6/4/3.8 on 41.8% shooting. Moreover, he has taken 17 or more attempts from the field in his last five games. The efficiency can always be a cause for concern, but there is no doubting his volume tonight.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz (+1.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5)

The Pelicans are still missing Brandon Ingram but this team is on an absolute tear right now. Not only are the one of the hottest teams in the NBA, but Zion Williamson has been turning heads. Over his last six games, Williamson has scored 25 or more points in each one. Moreover, he has averaged 31.2/9.3/4.8 on 68% shooting during that span through a 29.8% usage rate. With the Pelicans rolling smaller lineups and using Zion at the ‘5’, he’ll get the bulk of minutes in a favorable matchup. Utah currently ranks 28th in the league against centers and last in points allowed in the paint per game.

Utah Jazz (+1.5)

The return of Lauri Markkanen to the lineup removes the upside from multiple Jazz. Throughout their last three games, the Jazz have been without multiple players. Tonight, Collin Sexton remains out, but the bulk of this roster is healthy. Thus, it will be interesting to see what the Jazz do with Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Over his last three appearances, NAW has seen a massive jump in minutes and offensive opportunity. Logging over 31 minutes per contest in that span, NAW has averaged 16.3/4.7/3.3 on 58.6% shooting, including 55.6% from deep on six attempts per night. Presumably, he should get the start with both Mike Conley and Malik Beasley coming off the bench, but look for updates in Discord. There is a lot to love about this offense in a competitive game environment on tonight’s NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Sacramento Kings @ Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/12

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of elite matchups on tonight’s NBA slate. However, the majority of the action resides in the latter part of the schedule. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards (+5.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)

Back to back calls on Kyrie Irving has paid off in tournaments. On tonight’s NBA slate, he’s in another good spot. Over his last ten appearances, Kyrie has scored 20 or more in nine of ten. Moreover, he has averaged 25.2/4.4/4.5 on 51.3% shooting. With the absence of Royce O’Neale from the lineup, Kyrie becomes the primary three-point shooter as well. Washington currently ranks 28th in the league in three-point percentage allowed on 12.6 made attempts allowed per game. This play is for tournaments only, as I much rather get exposure to the next two games.

Washington Wizards (+5.5)

Exposure to the Wizards offense on tonight’s NBA slate depends on the availability of Bradley Beal. After leaving a game against the Lakers over a week ago, Beal has since missed three games and is questionable to play tonight. Should he be ruled out again, the trio of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, and Deni Avdija will be in for another night of big minutes. The Wizards have been playing on an awfully short rotation this past week, and tonight may be the same case. Should Beal make his return, I’ll fade this game entirely to prioritize the next two.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (+4.5)

Karl-Anthomy Towns remains out and there is a lot to like about the trio of Edwards, Gobert, and Russell. While Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling of the three, his point/dollar upside isn’t ideal in this matchup. Rather, Gobert will be in for a big night against Jusuf Nurkic. Portland currently ranks 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. However, they have been exposed in the paint. Portland struggles mightily on both ends of the floor, ranking 24th in the league against true centers. Moreover, they are 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game. Gobert certainly won’t lead the team in touches, but his efficiency around the rim will be on display. Many shot takers in this game gives Gobert plenty of rebounding opportunity.

Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5)

If you are not fond of the studs in the next game, you should be fond of Damian Lillard in an elite game environment. Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA in defensive rating. Moreover, they rank 27th against primary ball handlers. If that wasn’t enough for Lillard, Minnesota ranks 29th in three-point percentage allowed and 27th in three-pointers allowed per game. Over his last two games, Lillard has posted 30 or more points each time. He has averaged 38 points per game, chipping in 10 assists per night during that span as well. The shooting efficiency can always be an issue, but Lillard has attempted a whopping 28 three-pointers over his last two.

Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)

Boston Celtics (-3.5)

In the absence of both Al Horford and Robert Williams III, the trio of Tatum, Brown, and Smart will be tasked with heavy minutes tonight. First, Tatum has the highest ceiling of the three, but is tough to fit in builds on this NBA slate. If you can, do so with confidence. Second, Brown has been one of the best shooting guards in the league this season. A model of consistency, Brown has scored 20 or more points in 23 of 25 appearances this season. Moreover, he is second on the team in usage rate at 31.2% while averaging 26.8/7.2/3.6 on 50.1% shooting. Lastly, Smart has a safe floor but low ceiling. He is in a great spot as a ball handler versus the Clippers and is easier to fit in midrange builds. Moreover, Smart has five or more assists in his last twelve games, averaging 13.7/3.3/8.2 on 49.2% shooting during that span.

Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)

It might be time to finally deploy Kawhi Leonard with confidence on an NBA slate. This certainly won’t come with any risk, given that he has been in and out of the lineup since returning from a torn ACL. However, he has played 30 minutes in back-to-back appearances. Moreover, with Boston being without both Al Horford and Robert Williams III, a smaller Celtics lineup may force the Clippers to do the same, resulting in more rebounding opportunity for Leonard. If you’re uncertain of Leonard, then Paul George is one of the better targets in a thin Clippers offense. PG13 has averaged 32.5/7.5/6.5 on 48.9% shooting in his last two games and will be relied upon heavily tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers (+2.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/16

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Back to a set of full of games tonight in the NBA and there has already been plenty of news. Key players in some of the best game environments have already been ruled out, with surely more to come as we approach lock. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As mentioned above, many key players have already been ruled out. Certainly, there will be a flurry of updates to each injury report throughout the day. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks (+2)

Boston Celtics (-2)

Make no mistake about it, Jayson Tatum has been playing at an MVP level this season. Since the mid range of the pricing grid tonight will be a priority for most, many stars in elite game environments will be overlooked at the top of the pricing grid. Tatum currently sits 3rd in the NBA in scoring with 31.9 points per game. Moreover, the former Duke Blue Devil has scored 20 or more points in every game this season. Tatum comes into tonight’s matchup sporting a 31.9% usage rate, resulting in a 31.9/7.4/3.9 scoring line on 49.1% shooting. Should Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) miss a fourth consecutive game, the Celtics are down to what is essentially an 8-man rotation in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Atlanta Hawks (+2)

The Celtics are widely recognized for their talent on the defensive side of the ball. However, the statistics tell another story. Boston currently sits 21st in the NBA in defensive rating and have been struggling to keep teams at bay, allowing 113.5 points per game over their last four. Dejounte Murray is an intriguing target at the top of the pricing grid given the Celtics’ lack of defense versus secondary ball handlers. Moreover, the duo of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu hold an advantage on the inside over Al Horford. I won’t recommend forcing exposure to this offense, but this is a sneaky game for tournaments that can turn into an offensive spotlight.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (+4.5)

The Cavaliers will get reinforcements with Donovan Mitchell (ankle) back in the lineup, but will also be without Jarrett Allen (ankle) against the Bucks. Thus, both Evan Mobley and Kevin Love will see a sizeable bump in playing time. However, the backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell will continue to carry the 3rd best offense in the NBA. In a matchup against the Bucks, who are the league’s best defensive team, it won’t be easy to put up a ton of points against the likes of Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, Mitchell has now scored 20 or more points in seven straight games, posting a 33.4/4.6/5.4 scoring line on 55.3% shooting. I encourage exposure to this offense either way, whether it comes in the form of Mitchell/Garland or Mobley/Love, but prefer the former, since the latter will be more popular.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Since the mid range of the pricing grid offers much intrigue, Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be overly popular. Despite the lofty price tag, Giannis is one of a handful of players that can alter an NBA slate at any time. Sophomore Evan Mobley is already one of the league’s best defenders, but slowing Giannis down tonight will be a challenge like no other. Sporting a 38.6% usage rate on the season, Giannis returned to the lineup last game with a 27/8/4 scoring line in only 31 minutes and now carries a 31.3/11.8/5.2 scoring line on 52.6% shooting into tonight’s matchup.

New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets (-9)

New York Knicks (+9)

With the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back, this is one of many injury reports to monitor. Moreover, New York plays five games over a span of seven days, with this being their second of five. Denver ranks 23rd in defensive rating. Thus, I have interest in rostering Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, or one of Isaiah Hartenstein or Obi Toppin, depending on what our NBA projections display. The trio find themselves in tremendous matchups against Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and DeAndre Jordan, respectively. Look for updates in Discord to see where we land exactly, but the Knicks are going to be of interest.

Denver Nuggets (-9)

Welcome to the team of choice on this NBA slate. The field will surely flock to the Nuggets offense with Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) ruled out, and rightfully so. In addition, Bones Hyland ((health and safety protocols) will miss a third consecutive game, while Aaron Gordon is questionable with an illness as well. The quartet of Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are set to see heavy minutes and offensive looks.

Of the four, Jamal Murray looks to be in for a big night. Sporting a 26.7% usage rate on the season, Murray sees a drastic increase to 38.6% with Jokic off the floor this year in a small sample. Moreover, his fantasy points per minute (FPPG) increases from 1.01 to 1.13 while seeing a notable uptick in scoring and field goal attempts. With the Knicks ranked 26th in the NBA to primary ball handlers, Murray is the preferred target, but the quartet listed above are all in play.

Honorable Mentions:

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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