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Boston Bruins

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 25)

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Between the Benches. Tonight we have a very manageable 5-game slate of NHL DFS. We also have one of the most glaring spots for offense as we’ve seen all year. We’ll need to make the decision to chase the chalk or fade the chalk.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

NHL DFS Goaltending

Ilya Sorokin ($7.5K DK/$8k FD) vs. Ottawa Senators – This game features 2 struggling teams as both teams have been playing sub-.500 hockey over the last couple of weeks. Both teams have also seen their offenses essentially disappear. I’m going to lean toward Sorokin in this matchup. The Sens are scoring just 2.17 goals per game over the last couple of weeks on around 37 shots on goal. With the volume they’re putting on the net and their measly 5.91 shooting %, this sets up nicely for Sorokin to have a high-ceiling type of game. With his price, I really like him for GPP’s tonight.

Stuart Skinner ($8.5k DK/$7.7k FD) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets– This is more of a FD play tonight as the price on DK is on the high side. That said, this is a good spot for Stuart Skinner tonight. The Blue Jackets are a lost team right now, scoring less than 3 goals per game over the last 2 weeks and winners of just 2 in 8 games. He’s been at 18 DK points or higher in 4 of his last 6 games. There’s always upside with him and tonight is no different.

NHL DFS Stacks

Edmonton 1 (McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman) + Nurse vs. Columbus

This stack is going to cost an arm, a leg, and the kitchen sink. This stack is also going to be extremely chalky, but for good measure. Rarely have we seen the stars align so perfectly for us with arguably the most powerful line in the league against one of the worst defenses in the league. Can this line fail tonight? Absolutely, it’s the NHL and anything can happen. That said, this is just a marvelous spot for Edmonton tonight.

The metrics are there for this line. Over their last five games, Draisaitl has 10 points, McDavid has 9, and Hyman has 12. Yes, Hyman is leading the way for this potent offense. My order of preference is going to be Hyman, Draisaitl, and McDavid. If you want to go a little cheaper, you can also add in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as he’ll play with this trio on the top power-play unit. He’s been good recently with 7 points in his last 5. Fade at your own risk tonight, even though they’ll be chalky.

Rangers 3 (Chytil, Kaako, Lafreniere) + Schneider vs. Toronto

To counteract the massive amount of money we’re going to spend on Edmonton 1, we can look to New York 3 for some salary relief. Is this a safe play? Far, very far, from it. This is a high-risk high-reward type of line. The Rangers’ kid line has 3 guys that can play explosive hockey but can also disappear just as fast. They are also extremely cheap though, with Chytil being the most expensive at $4.2k.

If you want to go the safer route with the Rangers, their top line is also in play. Once they get their groove going, Zibanejad, Kreider, and Panarin can be as explosive of a line as any in the NHL. My preference here would be Zibanejad and Panarin as Kreider has had some weak games of late.

Seattle 2 (Wennberg, McCann, Donato) + Oleksiak vs. Vancouver

Tonight we’ll have the Seattle conundrum. We know they are in a great spot because let’s be honest, Vancouver is a mess defensively, new coach or not. They are giving up 4 goals per game over the last 2 weeks thanks to some shotty goaltending. Their save % of 86.38 is better than only Ottawa of the teams playing tonight.

I plan on prioritizing Seattle 2 over the rest of their lineup tonight. Of the 16 goals that the Kraken have scored over the last 5 games, 6 have come from this line. Both Donato and McCann have 3 goals a piece. Donato has also thrown in 3 assists for good measure. This too is a cheap line option to counteract paying up for Edmonton 1.

Other Stacks: Tor 1 and 2, Car 1, Dal 1 and 2, Van 1

NHL DFS Top Value Defenseman

Mark Giordano – $3.6k on DK
Justin Holl – $2.6k on Dk
Jalen Chatfield – $3k on DK
Braden Schneider – $2.7k on DK

Summary

The decision we’ll have to make tonight is going to be play or fade Edmonton. And who on Edmonton do we prioritize if we go there. The Rangers/Maple Leafs is an original 6-matchup and should be fun to watch.

Make sure to use our Projection model when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel (Jan. 19)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of Between the Benches. We have a ginormous 13-game slate of NHL DFS tonight. We have some marquis games (NYR/Bos, NJD/Sea, Tor/Edm) and we also have some really attachable games.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

NHL DFS Goaltending

Sam Montembeault ($6.9K DK/$7.2k FD) vs. Florida Panthers – I really hope the Canadiens go here tonight with Montembeault because the price is extremely appealing and he’s been playing some amazing goalie recently. Over his last 5 games, he’s had no less than 18 DK points in any game. He hasn’t been playing bad teams either. He’s beaten the Winnipeg and New York in back to back games. He’s extremely risky so play him in GPP only formats, but he’s extremely hot right now and I’m going to continue to ride this wave until it crashes. I just hope it’s not tonight!

John Gibson ($7.2k DK/$6.7k FD) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets– You’ll notice a trend that I’m paying way down for goalie tonight. Gibson is surprisingly in a really good spot tonight. He’ll still face a heavy amount of shots but he’s also facing off against a team that just can’t seem to figure out how to score goals. Over their last 8 games, the Blue Jackets have scored just 16 goals for an average of 2 per game. If we look at their xG, it’s sitting at 2.7 over the same stretch. So it’s really not too different and it indicates that the Blue Jackets just aren’t very good. Gibson is also a GPP only goalie.

NHL DFS Stacks

Washington 1 (Ovechkin, Strome, Aube-Kubel) + Gustafsson vs. Arizona

Alex Ovechkin and his teammates get one of the more lopsided matchups of the night tonight as they take on the hapless Arizona Coyotes. The Coyotes are just 1-7 in their last 8 and are giving up 3.5 goals per game. This is a matchup that the Capitals should be able to take full advantage of.

Even though Ovechkin has been really quiet of late, i really love him in this matchup and plan on building around him. He has just 1 goal in his last 5 but it’s not for the lack of trying. He’s averaging over 4 shots on goal during that stretch and has an iCF of 47. The goals are going to come and they’ll come against a bad defensive team in Arizona. If you’re worried about the productivity of his linemates, you can look to pair him with the top PP unit and guys like Oshie and Backstrom. Both of them are extremely cheap tonight and will make paying up for Ovi a tad easier.

Boston 2 (Krejci, Pastrnak, Zacha) + Lindholm vs. Rangers

As a Rangers fan, it pains me to write this, but this isn’t going to end well for the Rangers tonight. Boston is steamrolling the competition these days and I just don’t see a scenario where the Rangers can slow them down. Yes, they’re only giving up 2 goals per game over the last 2 weeks. But if we dig a bit deeper, their xGA is nearly a goal higher and they are giving up close to 15 high-danger chances per game. You can’t give up that much vs. the best team in the league.

I’m going full stack here. This line has produced 22 total points over the last 5 games. Pasta leads the way with 6 goals, but Krejci has 7 points and Zach has 6. Zacha being at $2.9k on DK really makes it so much easier to pay up for Pasta tonight. It’s a risk to play this line because the Rangers will more than likely roll out Shesterkin in goal tonight, but he can only do so much to slow this team down.

Florida 2 (Tkachuk, Bennett, Verhaeghe) + Montour vs. Montreal

If you are fading Sam Montembeault tonight because you think he comes crashing back down to earth, you’ll want to grab some shares of this second line for Florida. It’s been one of the hottest lines in hockey over the last week or so and if Florida does get to Monty tonight, it will be on their backs.

The core for me here would be Tkachuk and Verhaeghe. The two have combined for 11 points over their last 5 games and are playing really well together. If you want to go a different route with Florida, their top line is also very much in play. Barkov and Reinhart would be the plays there.

Other Stacks: Tor 1 and 2, Philly 1, Car 1, CBS 2, Buf 1, Stl 1, TB 1 and 2, Det 1, VGK 1, Sea 1 and 2,

NHL DFS Top Value Defenseman

Ryan Graves – $3.4k on DK
Jeremy Lauzon – $2.5k on Dk
Ben Chiarot – $3.6k on DK
Damon Severson – $2.9k on DK

Summary

For as big of a slate as we have tonight, our options are mostly limited as we have some tough matchups. I tried to isolate the most lopsided ones. I’ll be playing a ton of Capitals and Boston tonight.

Make sure to use our Projection model when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL Premium

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel (Dec. 7)

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Between the Benches. We have a 7-game slate tonight that has some really solid spots for offense.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

NHL DFS Goaltending

Linus Ullmark ($8.3K DK/$8.7k FD) vs. Colorado Avalanche – Jared, are you really picking on the Avalanche with a goalie? Yes, I 100% am tonight. If you haven’t heard the news yet, Nate MacKinnon has been ruled out for the next 4 weeks with an injury. That leaves this Avalanche team without it’s main offensive weapon and honestly, makes this Avalanche offense average at best.

This isn’t to take anything away from Ullmark. Ullmark has been great all season. He’s coming into this matchup 14-1 with a 1.93 GAA and a .936 save %. He’s made an early case for the Vezina Trophy. We have to go all the way back to Nov 1 to find a game where Ullmark hasn’t been in double-digit fantasy points on DK. I will add that although Ullmark does have a pretty save floor in this one, he also has a limited ceiling, making this more of a Cash game play.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($7.7k DK/$8.5k FD) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets – After giving up a goal on the very first shot he saw last night, Tristan Jarry went on to completely shut down the Blue Jackets and go for 32 DK points. While i wouldn’t put Luukkonen in the same class as Jarry, he gets the same matchup vs. a Blue Jackets team that has scored just 12 goals over their last 6 games. After last night’s debacle, their shooting percentage over the last 2 weeks is now down to 6.5%. That’s awful.

With Luukkonen, we have a goalie that has struggled this season. He has a 4.17 GAA and a .856 save %. Sometimes in GPP’s you need to take a risk, and I’m going to take a risk tonight vs. a team struggling. He’s coming off a strong performance vs. a solid Sharks team and my hope is that it carries over into this matchup. I need to reiterate with this one, it’s a high risk only meant for GPP’s.

NHL DFS Stacks

Buffalo 2 (Cozens, Peterka, Quinn) + vs. Columbus

I attacked the Blue Jackets with PIttsburgh last night and it paid off as their top line had 2 goals and 3 assists. While this second line for Buffalo doesn’t have the pedigree of Pittsburgh’s top line or even the Sabres’ top line, it’s been balling out and has a chance to continue to do damage. The Blue Jackets should put their best defensive line against the Thompson line tonight, leaving this second line to do some damage.

My important pieces here are going to be Cozens and Quinn. Cozens is playing great right now, with 4 goals and 5 assists over his last 5 games. Quinn at just $3.1k tonight on DK is a solid value. Over his last 5, he has 3 goals and 2 assists. Adding in another cheapy in Peterka allows us to really free up a ton of cash tonight, while staying extremely productive.

Buffalo 1 is also 100% in play tonight. They’re just more expensive and may garner more ownership.

Boston 2 (Krejci, Zacha, Pastrnak) + Carlo vs. Colorado

The team that the will be skating for the Avalanche tonight will be vastly different than the team that won the Cup last season. There will be no Nazm Kadri, no Gabriel Landeskog, and most importantly there will be no Nathan MacKinnon. Not to say that it will be a team of scrubs that will be playing, but they won’t resemble a championship team.

Knowing all of that, I’m going to attack them with the best team in the NHL, the Boston Bruins. And we’ll go with one of the best players in the game in David Pastrnak. Pasta has been balling this season and of late. Over his last 5 games, Pasta has 5 goals and an assist. Against a weakened lineup for the Avalanche, he should be able to add to that total tonight. I’ll prioritize pairing him with Krejci as he has 5 points also over his last 5 games. I don’t often play the Bruins in NHL DFS because of their popularity, but I feel like tonight is a night they can go off big time.

Vancouver 2 (Pettersson, Boeser, Mikheyev) + Dobson vs. St. Louis

The Sharks will hand over the goalie crease to Kaapo Kahkonen tonight. Over his last 7 games, Kahkonen has given up at least 4 goals 5 times. He’s someone that is extremely attackable and I’ll do so with a team that has been scoring some goals. The Canucks have been scoring more than 3.5 goals per game over the last 2 weeks.

We’ll want to jump down to their second line as well tonight as it’s been the one doing the damage. Most notably by Elias Pettersson. Pettersson has 7 points over his last 5 games. He’s been the playmaker as he has 5 assists. Both of his linemates are extremely cheap tonight, but I’m going to pair him with Mikheyev tonight as he’s put 3 pucks in the net over his last 5. That’s a decent amount of production out of someone under $4k.

Other Stacks: Vegas 1 and 2, Edmonton 1, Rangers 1, Sharks 1, Cgy 1

NHL DFS Top Value Defenseman

Alex Goligoski – $2.9k on DK
Travis Sanheim – $3.9k on Dk
Matt Benning – $3k on DK
Jared Spurgeon – $4.6k on DK

Summary

This has the makings of a super-fun slate tonight. I’ll be locked on both Buffalo and Boston tonight and will fit in Vancouver and Vegas where i can. The Rangers, as much as it pains me to say it, have been playing like hot garbage. Attack them where you can.

Make sure to use our Projection model when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Apr. 2)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the latest edition of the Saturday Slapshot where we’ll be focusing on tonight’s 7 game main slate of NHL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re at the point of the year where teams are either playing for their playoff lives or jockeying for position. Thankfully, hockey is not like the NBA and we rarely see major players sitting out at the tail end of the season.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Connor Hellebuyck ($7.8K DK/$7.2k FD) vs. Los Angeles Kings – We should see Hellebuyck in net tonight for the Jets in a home matchup vs. the Los Angeles Kings. Hellebuyck has back-to-back really solid outings, with 26 DK points against Buffalo and 22 points against Arizona. This is a similar match tonight for Hellebuyck as the Kings haven’t really been scoring. Over the last month, they’re scoring just 2.5 goals per game. This is a good sport for Hellebuyck to continue his solid recent play. He should be one of the top goalies on the night.

Jake Oettinger ($7.9k DK/$7.5k FD) vs. San Jose Sharks – The San Jose Sharks are just not a team that should strike fear into any goaltender. Over the last month, they’re scoring just 2.6 goals per game and outside of their top line, they have very little firepower. Oettinger has been a great story for the Stars this NHL season, with a 24-11-1 record and a GAA below 2.5. He’s won 5 of the last 7 games he’s started and tonight should make it 6 of 8.

Tonight with Goaltending I’m not going to stray too far from the two I mentioned. I will be locking in one of the two and just moving on. The only other goaltender I have any interest in is Jeremy Swayman, but he’s pricey on DK and I just don’t think I want to go that high for him.

Stacks

Toronto 1 (Matthews, Marner, Buntin) vs. Philadelphia

This line is going to be chalky, there’s no denying it. The Leafs are playing a Flyers team that is giving up almost 4 goals per game over the past month. That’s laughably high and it’s something we’ll want to take advantage of tonight. There isn’t much I need to say about Matthews to try to sell you on playing him. He’s already at the 50 goal mark and he’s at the point where he’s chasing 100 points. He’s one of, if not the best player in the NHL.

There isn’t much time left in the season for him to get there, but my guess is that he puts a dent into that number tonight. The duo of Matthews and Marner will be pricey tonight, but it will be well worth it. The two have combined for 19 points over their last 5 games and close to 40 scoring chances.

Tampa Bay 1 (Point, Kucherov, Stamkos) vs. Montreal

If you want to fade Toronto tonight, another option is Tampa Bay 1 tonight. Montreal is Montreal and they give up a ton of goals. They gave up close to 3.6 goals per game in the month of March. Brayden Point is playing some great hockey and if I do decide to fade Toronto, he’d be a priority. Over hist last 5 games he has 8 points and 20 scoring chances.

Between him and Stamkos, they have 42 scoring chances, 15 of which are considered to be high danger chances. The two of them will also come at a $4k discount over Matthews and Marner, making the rest of your team solid and not having to punt as much. I think I just sold myself on playing Tampa over Toronto today.

Boston 2 (Haula, Hall, Pastrnak) vs. Columbus

What going to Tampa 1 allows you to do tonight is to also grab some of Boston. Boston is playing Columbus tonight and they are always someone we want to play against. In March the Blue Jackets gave up more than 4 goals per game. That’s an accomplishment not worth bragging about.

I’m going down to their second line and playing Pasta and Haula. Haula is just $3.5k on DK tonight but he’s playing well above that salary. Over his last 5 games, he has 2 goals and 6 assists for 8 points. At his salary, he’s close to a free square. This line should combine to be one of the top lines on the slate as Boston obliterates Columbus.

Other stacks (Dal 1, Cgy 1 and 2, Stl 1, WPG 1, Phi 1)

Top Value NHL Defenseman

Noah Hanifin – $3.9k on DK – Always good for a few blocked shots and shots per game. Opens up salary.
Jacob Middleton – $2.7k on Dk – Back-to-back games with 3 blocks and some shots. Great value.
Jaycob Megna – $2.6k on DK and continues to have no regard for his body
Matt Dumba – $4.4k on DK – Double-digit points in 5 of his last 6 games. Should be over $5k. Great value.

NHL DFS Summary

We have some great offensive teams in just unbelievable positions tonight. Toronto is going to be extremely popular tonight. You’ll need to decide to play or fade them. If you fade, I may, Tampa is in just as good of a spot tonight and come in much cheaper. That’ll make the rest of your team that much better.

Make sure to use our optimizer before setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot (Mar. 5)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Over the last month or so we’ve started to see smaller Saturday night slates. Tonight is no exception as we have ourselves a nice-sized 6 game slate of NHL DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. Tonight we should see some fresh legs as only the Columbus Blue Jackets are playing on the back end of back-to-backs.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Juuse Saros ($7.9K DK/$8.1k FD) vs. San Jose Sharks – If you look at Saros’ recent game logs, you’ll see someone that has been extremely inconsistent. Over the last couple of weeks, he’s had as many as 21 DK points vs. the Stars and as little as 3.5 vs. the Hurricanes. The matchup tonight should be on the “easier” side as the Sharks have been abysmal of late.

Over the last month, they’ve been scoring just 2 goals per game. Their offense has essentially vanished and has been one of the worst in the NHL. The Predator’s propensity to give up shots and the Sharks’ inability to score goals of late has me loving this bounce-back match-up for Saros. He’s under that $8k threshold on DK tonight so we won’t be paying a premium. And we don’t like having to pay premiums on goalies.

Vitek Vanacek ($8.2k DK/$7.6k FD) vs. Seattle Kraken – Yes, the Kraken put a larger than normal number for them Wednesday night when they scored 4 goals vs. Saros and the Predators. That’s essentially their weeks’ worth of goals so we should be good to use a goalie against them tonight. Over the last month, the Kraken are averaging just 2.30 goals per game. They have an extremely weak offense.

Tonight, we’re going to use Vanacek against them. In a small sample size in the NHL this season, he’s shown some serious upside. He has multiple games over 30 DK points. Should he get the start tonight, I’m all in on him. Whoever starts for the Capitals tonight should be in your pool of goalies.

Stacks

Washington 1 (Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Wilson) + Carlson vs. Seattle

I haven’t used Ovechkin in quite some time when playing NHL DFS. He’s been priced to a point where his production was leaving little value. That said, he’s as cheap as you’ll ever see him. For the first time since the start of the year, he’s priced under $8k on DK at just $7.7k. That’s a steal. I’m sure it will lead to him being more popular tonight, but at that price it’s hard to fade with the upside that he presents us.

While he has only 2 goals over his last 5, he’s been showing some signs of life as he has 14 scoring chances over that period. I plan on pairing him with Kuznetsov tonight, who’s also reasonably priced at just $5.3k. Kuz is right behind Ovie with 13 scoring chances over his last 5 games. Seattle’s giving up 4 goals per game over the last month. This line should do well tonight.

Boston 1 (Bergeron, Marchand, Debrusk) vs. Columbus

I highlighted above that Columbus is on the tail end of a back to back. Even if they were rested, I would have attacked them. With them likely having tired legs, it makes me want to attack them even more. My priority with the Bruins tonight will be Debrusk at just $3.6k. He’s been one of the hottest players in the NHL over the last couple of weeks with 5 goals in his last 5 games.

While he’s quieted down a bit over his last 2 games, love the upside in him tonight against a team that is giving up almost 38 shots per game over the last month. I normally stick with 2 man stacks and my lean right now is to pair him with Marchand over Bergeron. Marchand has a slight edge in scoring chances and that’s what we covet, scoring chances.

Edmonton 2 (Draisaitl, Kane, Yamamoto) vs. Montreal

Montreal has been a much better team since Martin St. Louis took over the realms. That said, it’s still the same personnel that played poorly all throughout the first half of the NHL season. I’m siding with Edm 2 tonight over Edm 1 because we get about a $1,500 savings going down to Draisaitl from McDavid. Draisaitl has been showing some signs of life recently. He has back-to-back games with multiple points and 3 goals and 8 points over his last 5. At just $7.4k tonight we’re getting him at a huge discount from where he was about a month ago.

My plan is to pair him with Kane tonight. The 2 have played fairly well together as they’ve combined for 12 points over their last 5 games. The Oilers should face Montembeault tonight. After a solid stretch of 6 games, he came back down to earth against the Jets on Tuesday giving up 7 goals. While I don’t’ see him giving up 7 tonight, the Oilers should surpass the 4 goals Vegas currently has them at.

I also love Toronto tonight, but the Matthews line has absolutely burned me the last 2 games. I’m a little gun shy going back to them tonight.

Other stacks (Van 1, Tor 1, CBJ 1, Bos 2, Mon 1 and 2, Edm 1)

Top Defenseman

Brandon Carlo – $2.9k on DK – Has 12 blocked shots and 13 shots over his last 5. Averaging 5 shots + blocks over that stretch. He presents us with a ton of value if his play continues.
Martin Fehervary – $2.6k on DK – Has 11 blocks over his last 5. Doesn’t get the same shot volume, but he’s dirt cheap and is in a great environment tonight.
Cale Makar – 8 assists and 20 shots over his 5. One of the top offensive defenseman in the league. Expensive though.
Devon Toews – 2 goals and 5 assists over his last 5. Colorado has done a great job getting offensive defenseman.
Tyler Myers – 13 blocks and 10 shots over his last 5. Just $3.7k on DK. Great Value.
Travis Hamonic – $4.4k on DK. Average over 4.5 shots + blocks over his last 5. Also a great value.

Vegas

Love the over on the Canucks 2.5 goals tonight. While Toronto is a high-powered offense, they’re also poor defensively. They’re giving up 3.75 goals per game over the last month. Campbell has given up 14 goals in his last 3 games. Canucks should put up at least 3 goals tonight.

Summary

Tonight’s the type of night where we have some high upside guys really priced down in Ovechkin and Draisaitl. In my early builds, I have them continue to be my core 2 and surrounding them with at least one of their teammates. With Defenseman tonight, I’m going strictly value. There are 2 guys under $3k tonight on DK that have been giving us shots and blocks on a consistent basis. They’ll give us a ton of salary savings.

Make sure to use our optimizer when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Playoff Preview (First Round). A little different than my daily game pick articles. The NHL Playoffs are finally here! After a grueling 56-game season we are down to 16 teams. With the nuances of scheduling this year, each team will have a mini bracket within their division and then each team who makes it out of their division will be re-seeded for the Final 4. Not too many surprises with who made the playoffs. Here are the 16 teams who will be playing in the First Round:

We have some great First Round matchups. I will preview each series, post each series price and give my predictions. I will also keep a tracker for my entire slate of playoff bets, as I have some futures on who makes it out of their division, as well as who wins Lord Stanley. I will provide that info at the end as well as some general thoughts for betting the NHL Playoffs. Without further ado, let’s dive into the series.

East Division

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. #4 New York Islanders (+121)

Season Series: Penguins: 6-2-0, Islanders: 2-4-2

Preview: The Penguins sport the best home record in the league and have home-ice advantage in this series. They should be fully healthy with the returns of Malkin a few games ago and Tanev is projected to be ready for Game 1. The Penguins had a great season and are well deserved to be at the top of this division. The Islanders started of the season very nicely and were battling for first, but things unraveled for them after the Trade Deadline. The Penguins are known for their offense and the Islanders for their defense, but both teams can handle their own on the opposite spectrums as well. The Penguins are 2nd in GF over their last 20 games while the Islanders are 30th. The major X-factor right now is the health of Islanders’ top goaltender Seymon Varlamov. Sporting top-5 goaltending numbers this season, if he is unable to play than the Islanders will have to rely on Russian rookie Ilya Sorokin, who has decent numbers himself but not to the standard of Varlamov. Two teams trending in opposite directions leaves me no choice in my prediction.

Prediction: Penguins 4-1

#2 Washington Capitals (+118) vs. #3 Boston Bruins (-143)

Season Series: Capitals: 4-4-0, Bruins 4-2-2

Preview: What a series this should play out to be. We have the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions versus the 2019 Stanley Cup Runner-Ups. We have the return of Zdeno Chara who spent 14 seasons with Boston and was the longest-tenured captain in the league before signing with Washington as a free agent in the offseason. Each team won 4 matchups against the other this season. The Capitals surprisingly are an underdog in this series, and that must be attributed to Boston’s recent form. They have been a freight train after acquiring Hall, Reilly, and Lazar at the Trade Deadline. The Bruins could not score pretty much all season but then finally woke up the last month. The Caps meanwhile have been battling injury concerns to their star players and also had to deal with the Tom Wilson/Battle of New York saga. The Bruins have been rolling and have been in the top-10 in offensive metrics over their last 20 games. The thing with the Capitals is their underlying numbers were not that good but they could mitigate that with their scoring talent. However, recently the Capitals haven’t been able to do that. Goaltending is also interesting for both teams as the Capitals will roll with the inexperienced tandem of Samsanov/Vanacek, while the Bruins will probably start with Rask but rookie Swayman could make a case for deserving that net. With the Bruins rolling and actually low key dominating their season series with Washington analytically despite it being tied 4-4, I have no choice here.

Prediction: Bruins 4-2

Central Division

#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. #4 Nashville Predators (+190)

Season Series: Hurricanes: 6-2-0, Predators: 2-5-1

Preview: The Hurricanes have dominated this season series over Nashville winning 6 of 8. The Predators snuck into the playoffs on the curtails of Juuse Saros incredible goaltending. The Hurricanes offense has been rolling all season and there is no reason to see that slowing down here. A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series, no doubt. But Saros will need to stand on his head to steal this one from Carolina. Nashville held their own in their matchups against Carolina this year despite only winning 2 of 8. Hurricanes offense, defense, and special teams have been better all season. The only edge you can really give to Nashville is goaltending. And there is a chance Mrazek/Ned can get on a roll and even out that edge. I feel generous to say the Preds won’t roll Carolina, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.

Prediction: Hurricanes 4-2

#2 Florida Panthers (+116) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)

Season Series: Panthers: 5-2-1, Lightning: 3-5-0

Preview: The Battle of Florida. These teams do not like each other and this has the potential to be an absolute battle and best series of the first round. You could argue Tampa underperformed a little bit this year as the defending champs finishing 3rd in their division. But they were without their best player Nikita Kucherov all season and captain Steven Stamkos for the last 10 or so games. Kucherov is projected to be ready for the playoffs so we will see if he can come back right in stride or has some rust. The Panthers on the other hand had quite the season and outperformed expectations to a 2nd place finish in the division. A devastating blow to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad who sustained a season-ending injury with about 15 games to go. However Mackenzie Weegar has picked up the slack on the back end. Goaltending is where Tampa will display quite the edge with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts and probably Chris Dreidger in net for Florida, with Bobrovsky and rookie Spencer Knight there in case Dreidger falters. With the Lightning having some injury concerns and coming off a long cup run, I am going against the grain here.

Prediction: Panthers 4-3

North Division

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-275) vs. #4 Montreal Canadiens (+210)

Season Series: Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, Canadiens: 3-6-1

Preview: The Maple Leafs have been viewed as the favorites to make it out of the North Division since Day 1, and are actually the only team with minus odds (-135) to make it out of their division of the entire league. They will be squaring up with a Canadiens team that has been hot and cold all season. They started off really hot and people were even thinking they might be better than Toronto, then went ice cold and fired their coach, before finishing the season relatively strong. Defense is their specialty but they’ve had to deal with multiple injuries on the back end. It’s unclear if they will go with their most expensive asset (Carey Price) or the goaltender who has performed better this season (Jake Allen) for this series. Nothing would surprise me and could potentially see the Canadiens pulling an upset if they get hot, but the Leafs are definitely the stronger team and should take care of this series.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 4-2

#2 Edmonton Oilers (-186) vs. #3 Winnipeg Jets (+150)

Season Series: Oilers: 7-2-0, Jets 2-7-0

Preview: Two teams that are going in opposite directions. Behind the incredible season from Connor McDavid, Edmonton has had a strong end to the season. Winnipeg has been reeling behind all sorts of defensive problems all season, as well as an injury to their strongest winger in Nikolaj Ehlers. Luckily for Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goaltender in the league and the kind of goalie who can steal a series. The problem is the defense in front of him has been bad all year and towards the end of the season he had some games where he didn’t stand on his head. Oilers goalie Mike Smith has actually had quite a surprising season as a 39-year-old veteran on the last legs of his career. With the way McDavid and Draisaitl have been rolling all season, I cannot go against the best player(s) in the league.

Prediction: Oilers 4-2

West Division

#1 Colorado Avalanche (-335) vs. #4 St. Louis Blues (+255)

Season Series: Avalanche: 5-3-0, Blues: 3-5-0

Preview: The Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents’ Trophy winning Avalanche begin their Cup run against the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues. The Avs have probably the strongest and deepest team in the 16-team field this year. They’ve dealt with some COVID and injury issues all season but should be healthy rolling into playoffs. This is the biggest series discrepancy based on Vegas lines as well as my Model. The Blues have been inconsistent this season and Binnington hasn’t played to the level he did when they won the Cup in 2018. The addition of Krug in the offseason was supposed to cancel out the loss of Pietrangelo, but it hasn’t been that simple. The Avs are a wagon and even though the Blues have playoff experience, I will rely on the data and the models here.

Prediction: Avalanche 4-1

#2 Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+190)

Season Series: Golden Knights: 3-4-1, Wild: 5-1-2

Preview: Viewed as one of the favorites to win the Cup coming into the season, the Golden Knights have quite the draw in the First Round. Losing the top seed and Presidents’ Trophy with the Avs win last night, Vegas goes from playing a weaker St. Louis team to a young and exciting Minnesota team. To make matters even worse Minnesota has had Vegas’ number all season with only 1 regulation loss for Minnesota in 8 matchups. Vegas is deep at every position and will be interesting to see if they roll out Fluery or Lehner in net, both goalies are more than capable. Minnesota on the other side has been riding the coattails of exciting rookie Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov. With stronger than expected defensive and goaltending results they cruised to a 3rd place finish in the division and face a team they have matched up well against all season. There is definite series price value on Minnesota if you are looking for an upset to happen as there always is plenty in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I’m going to ride with the team I am confident can make a Cup run, but would not be surprised either way.

Prediction: Golden Knights 4-3

Current Bets and Notes

My approach for this playoff season is to ride a few Cup futures, bet some teams to make it out of their divisions, and then take any series or series spreads I think have some value. From there I might bet an individual game where I see value on a team or think the other team has a good chance to even the series. I really like taking the Game 1 loser in a series I think will be very evenly matched. I also may hedge some of my futures out if the opportunity presents itself (i.e. Vegas makes it to the Cup, take the other team to win the series and profit either way).

These are the futures I have so far, which will be updated as the playoffs roll on, and will also be on the Sports Betting Picks page:

Excited for the NHL Playoffs! Going to be a roller coaster of emotions with upsets and lots of things you won’t expect, which is what makes it the best sport on earth. Let’s ride this wave!!

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (May 12)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 5/12

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 5/12. This will be the last regular season article as we shift gears towards the playoffs. There will be a Playoff Preview article coming out on Friday before the first series begins Saturday. The Model went 1-1 last night with craziness happening in that Caps/Bruins game. In the morning I took the over 5.5 because that seemed like good value. Then this news came out:

So I quickly went to hammer the Caps because the ML at the time was -130. I instantly hated the over and hedged it out with the under. The Caps ML climbed all the way up to -210 giving me over a 10% CLV. And then the game took place and there was absolutely nothing going on. The B’s scored first and the Caps tied it. Then with a second left the Caps finished the game off and barely won 2-1. Quite the roller coaster of emotions. On to today, I doubt anything can top that.

We have 5 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Oilers Money Line (-127) over the Canadiens
Senators Puck Line (+1.5, -175) over the Maple Leafs
Senators/Leafs Under 6.5 (-110)
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +170) and Money Line (-143) over the Blues
Golden Knights Money Line (-200) over the Sharks
Avalanche Money Line (-360) over the Kings
Kings Puck Line (+1.5, +123) over the Avalanche

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. And also keep an eye out for players resting and playoff implications for these games. The Avs need to win out to get the top seed and the Kings have literally nothing to play for. The Oilers and Canadiens both have their seeding locked in, but Edmonton getting more points can give them an advantageous matchup if they make it out of their division.

My Picks

Senators/Maple Leafs Under 6.5 (-110): These teams have actually hit their overs against each other a decent amount going 5-3. However both teams have good under trends throughout the season and in the last month. Both teams are under 40% over win percentage in the last month and under 41% for the whole season. It is Andersen’s first NHL start in a couple months which slightly scares me, but he also might play well given he needs to earn his playoff spot. At that 6.5 number I like the under here.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (May 6)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Thursday 5/6

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 5/6. The Model bounced back going 2-0 last night. The Golden Knights needed OT to finish the Wild with a nice Pietrangelo finisher. The Jets absolutely dominated the Flames winning 4-0, a nice momentum building win leading to playoffs. With the Habs losing to the Sens it is also setting up a Leafs-Habs first round matchup, which is what everyone wants. Also, that Rangers/Caps game was electric. 3 fights off the opening faceoff, 6 fights in the first period, Wilson with an ‘upper-body’ injury in the 2nd, Buchnevich cross-checking Mantha in the face. I mean look at the Caps box after the 6th fight.

This game had quite the playoff/revenge vibe and I loved every second of it. Playoffs are right around the corner let’s finish off this regular season strong.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Penguins Money Line (-345) and Puck Line (-1.5, -148) over the Sabres
Hurricanes Money Line (-295) over the Blackhawks
Bruins Money Line (-225) over the Rangers
Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -139) over the Bruins
Rangers/Bruins Under (5.5, -113)
Islanders Money Line (-250) over the Devils
Maple Leafs Money Line (-220) over the Canadiens
Oilers Puck Line (-1.5, -118) and Money Line (-286) over the Canucks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. Every single money line is -220 or greater for the favorites tonight. We are getting into that time of year with big discrepancies as teams who are eliminated are testing rookies and different lineups for next year, and resting players with nagging injuries. We look to the over/unders and puck lines to get some value tonight.

My Picks

Bruins -1.5 (+125): Finally a pick I absolutely love, which means it will definitely lose (kidding). The Rangers, who are eliminated from the playoffs already, had their Super Bowl last night and are probably emotionally exhausted. The Bruins want to keep winning to move up in the standings and maybe get home ice. When looking at the PL numbers the Rangers are good over the whole course of the season and the B’s are slightly above average. However over the last month it is reversed with the Rangers only +1.9u on the PL and the Bruins are +9u. I like getting this at plus money and we are riding heavy tonight.

Blackhawks +1.5 (+108): Chicago is trending downwards losing 2 straight matchups to Carolina by more than a goal. However throughout the course of the season they have done pretty well covering against Carolina. With Chicago rotating goalies lately it is a bit of a risk to take this without that being confirmed, but we should get Lankinen in net tonight. The Canes are 43% covering -1.5 and the Blackhawks are 58% covering +1.5, which would suggest a better than 50% chance the Blackhawks cover. With that probability and getting the +1.5 at plus money, we have to ride with this tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 20)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/20

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/20. The Model finally returned to expected form last night, going 2-1 but was +2 units because the DOGS WERE BARKING. The Senators took care of business and cashed as a +185 dog against the Flames winning 4-2. The over in the Wild/Coyotes cruised as they scored 7 goals and cashed with +120 odds. The only loss was Columbus who got burned on an empty net with 30 seconds left to lose 4-2. Close from a clean sweep and a dominant night but we will take this. We look ahead to Tuesday riding high.

We have 8 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Panthers Money Line (-220) over the Blue Jackets
Rangers Puck Line (+1.5, -250) over the Islanders
Rangers/Islanders Under (5.5, -120)
Bruins Money Line (-305) over the Sabres
Penguins Money Line (-250) over the Devils
Red Wings Money Line (+215) over the Stars
Red Wings/Stars Under (5.5, -143)
Kings Money Line (-155) over the Ducks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. It looks like we will get the NHL debut of Spencer Knight for the Panthers tonight. One of the most highly-touted goalie prospects of the last decade and an American stud, let’s hope he gets off to a good start in the league.

My Picks

Hurricanes ML (+104): We are going back to the dogs tonight, albeit this one is slight. The second game of a back-to-back, the Canes should have the goaltending edge with McElhinney projected for the Lightning. Not to mention Stamkos is out in addition to missing Kucherov all season, and the Canes need to bank some points. Relatively even teams we like the Canes at plus money in this spot here.

Bruins -1.5 (-110): The Bruins are a different team post trade deadline. They have been rolling teams and are on a warpath to the finish. I will give the Sabres some credit they have been playing well as of late and got a win against Pittsburgh on Saturday and lost to the Bruins in a shootout on Tuesday. However the Sabres are the third-worst team covering +1.5 (53.8%) and even though the Bruins aren’t great covering -1.5 (32.5%, 21st in the league), they have covered in their last 3 games and we’re getting great value with the ML around -300.

Penguins 1P -0.5 (2U): The first 2 unit play on here, against my New Jersey Devils? Infathomable. The Devils have been getting pummeled and starting slow, trailing 3-0 in 4 (!!) consecutive games. Let’s add that Ty Smith and Mackenzie Blackwood are out tonight, in addition to Zacha and Bratt who have missed the last couple of games, and this is just too appetizing to pass up. I never take first period bets and I never do 2 unit bets so why wouldn’t I throw the hammer against my own team tonight. Too much value here to ignore.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 18)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Sunday 4/18. The Model had an even night going 2-2. The over/unders treated us well with the Sens/Habs hitting the under 6 in a 4-0 Sens victory, and the Caps/Flyers lighting up the board and allowing the over 6.5 to hit in a 6-3 Caps win. The Blues let us down starting up 2-0 then losing 3-2, and the Devils game gave us a roller coaster of emotion going down 4-0, then coming back to make it 4-3, before ultimately losing 6-3. We move on to Sunday to finish the week strong.

We have 6 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Money Line (+130) over the Bruins
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +123) over the Devils
Penguins Money Line (-250) over the Sabres
Islanders Money Line (-135) over the Flyers

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight. The Sabres are playing a goalie I have never even heard of, and that is saying something for the Sabres who’s normal tandem is Linus Ullmark and Dustin Tokarski. The Canucks also are finally back of a long layoff with COVID. Unfortunately for them their symptoms were quite terrible and they draw an instant tough matchup with Toronto today.

My Picks

Leafs -1.5 (-115): As mentioned this is the Canucks first game in about 3 weeks due to COVID. Their symptoms were so bad and players have admitted they still have not fully recovered. Their mind is on their health and family (as it should be), however that doesn’t mean we can’t bet against them. They are also missing 5 players still including their better goalie (Demko). The Leafs are the best team in the North Division and I expect them to dominate Vancouver tonight.

Penguins -1.5 (+100): Another -1.5 spread, how could this go wrong. The Penguins have played Buffalo 5 times this season and have covered the puck line in 4 of those games. The only time they didn’t was yesterday. However as mentioned above Buffalo is playing a goalie I have never even heard of before. That strategy worked against when I faded Swayman from Boston however he has turned out to be quite a good goalie. This guy playing for Buffalo couldn’t get starts over Tokarski and Johansson therefore I feel more comfortable this time around.

Bruins ML (-130): The Bruins seem to be turning the corner after a worse-than-expected start to the season. Their trade deadline additions of Reilly, Hall, and Lazar are already paying dividends. They have the rest advantage here and probably the goaltending advantage too. The Caps have been hard to evaluate this season because their underlying numbers don’t suggest they should be doing as well as they are. The Bruins are 3-1-2 against Washington this season, with their most recent battle an 8-1 loss last Sunday. Look for a Boston bounce back today.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Rangers 3 (Chytil, Kaako, Lafreniere) + Schneider vs. Toronto

Seattle 2 (Wennberg, McCann, Donato) + Oleksiak vs. Vancouver

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Washington 1 (Ovechkin, Strome, Aube-Kubel) + Gustafsson vs. Arizona

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Florida 2 (Tkachuk, Bennett, Verhaeghe) + Montour vs. Montreal

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Buffalo 2 (Cozens, Peterka, Quinn) + vs. Columbus

Boston 2 (Krejci, Zacha, Pastrnak) + Carlo vs. Colorado

Vancouver 2 (Pettersson, Boeser, Mikheyev) + Dobson vs. St. Louis

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NHL Betting Picks Thursday 5/6

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NHL Betting Picks Tuesday 4/20

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