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Bay Hill Golf Club Analysis

Before getting into our betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Bay Hill Club & Lodge, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps p...

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Bay Hill Club is the golf course hosting this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview

Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.

PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.

We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Course Analysis

Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.

You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.

That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.

Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.

Bay Hill Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.

There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.

Weather

Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.

Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.

Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitationalyou can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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