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Baltimore Orioles

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (July 3)

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s the Monday funday and today we have a shortened slate. We have only a 6-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. This slate has some solid options up top in terms of pitching. We also have some solid spots for bats. One question that will be burning for everyone will be what to do with Domingo German as he’s coming off MLB’s 24^th perfect game. Prior to that, he had been awful.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Angels

The matchup isn’t the greatest for Blake Snell tonight as he’s facing the best hitter the game has probably ever seen. But you have to respect what he’s done over the last 30+ days. Over his last 31 innings of work, Blake Snell has a 47% strike-out rate. Think about that for a second. He’s striking out pretty darn close to 50% of the batters that he’s facing. He has 4 consecutive starts with double-digit k’s and he hasn’t been under 6 strikeouts since all the way back on 5/19.

He’s also been over 20 DK points in 6 consecutive starts. He’s also only $8.6k tonight on DK. As long as he gives Shohei Ohtani the Barry Bonds treatment today, he should be able to navigate this lineup. He definitely comes with some risk tonight, but he also comes with massive upside at this price.

Joe Ryan vs. Kansas City Royals

I’m not really sold on the talents of Joe Ryan, but he has had some massive games this season and gets a matchup tonight vs. a Royals team in which he very well could have a massive game again. Ryan is coming off a poor outing against the Atlanta Braves but we’ll cut him some slack because well, it’s the Braves and they have by far the best lineup in the game of baseball right now.

Prior to that, Ryan had a 45-point outing against a decent Red Sox lineup. Ryan has been the model of inconsistency this season and because of that, he makes for a great GPP play. He has real upside tonight against this bad Royals team. Against righties this season, the Royals have a nearly 25% k rate and just a .659 OPS. Ryan should be able to have an above-average game vs. a below-average lineup.

Other pitchers I’m going to have my eye on tonight will be Bryan Woo vs. the Giants and Tyler Wells vs. the Yankees. The Mets starters just walked through the Giants and Woo can definitely do the same vs. them. The Yankees are a watered-down lineup these days and Wells has been really solid.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

San Diego Padres vs. Jaime Barria

The disappointing San Diego Padres get the matchup of a lifetime tonight against Jaime Barrie. Well, maybe not the matchup of a lifetime, but they do get a good one. Barria has struggled somewhat over the last month. Over his last 15 innings of work. Barria has pitched to an ERA of 5.87. His xFIP is even higher at 6.48. He’s been letting up homers at an epic pace as he’s allowed 5 in those 15 innings. That’s just not good.

He’s also giving up way too many barrels. 11 in 15 innings if horrendous. Should he continue to make mistakes, this Padres lineup should be able to smack him around and put up a healthy amount of runs. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits in this one. Both sides have some pros and cons. Righties have a much higher ISO vs. Barrie while lefties have a much higher wOBA.

The 3 premier plays in this lineup are Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto. Each of them warrants a spot in your MLB DFS lineups. All 3 have homer potential every single AB and should do well in this matchup. After those 3, I’m going to look to prioritize getting Ha-seong Kim and Trent Grisham into my lineups.

The 2 of them have actually been the hotter hitters in this lineup of late. Over the past week, the 2 of them each have an OPS of at least 1.000. Kim is 7 for his last 21 with 2 homers and a 95% contact rate. If he cracks the lineup tonight, he’s a solid play for us. After the 5 guys I’ve already mentioned, Jake Cronenworth and Gary Sanchez would also make solid plays

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German

Up until his perfect game against the hapless Oakland Athletics, German had been pitching poorly. There had actually been talk about DFA’ing him. Even with the perfect game, German still has a 5.67 ERA over the last month and a 4.26 xFIP. The perfect game was pure luck and he’s going to come right back down to earth against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles haven’t been hitting the cover off the ball of late like they were earlier in the year, but they still make for a great play vs. a bad pitcher. They have one of the top young lineups in the league and every night out they have the potential to put up a very crooked number. Tonight is no different.

The main bats I’m interested in here are going to be Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson, and Adley Rutschman. All 3 of them will have the platoon advantage and are quite frankly, the most talented hitters in this lineup. Henderson, after struggling through the first year of his MLB career has really come alive over the last month or so. He has a ton of potential in this matchup.

I’m also very interested in Anthony Santander. He’s been one of the teams’ most consistent hitters since the start of the 2022 season. He’s one of their MVP’s and should always be considered in their stack. Other bats to look at here are Ramon Urias and Aaron Hicks.

I didn’t mention them, but Atlanta is very much in play. They are essentially a team that is in play every single night, regardless of who they are facing. Every hitter in their lineup has home run potential every single AB.

MLB DFS Summary

We have ourselves a small slate tonight. We have a couple of good options on the mound and bats should be plentiful.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 28)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

After MLB blessed us with a massive 15-game slate of MLB DFS last night, we’re right back at it with another huge slate as we have 13 games to work with tonight. Anytime there’s this many games, we’ll have plenty of options to pick from with our pitching and stacking. With it being such a big slate, the first thing we’ll want to do is eliminate as much junk as we can. And there’s plenty of junk on this slate to get rid of.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The New York Mets’ starters so far have left the Brewers scoreless through the first 2 games of this series. Justin Verlander did it on Monday and then David Petersen did it last night. The only reason the Mets haven’t won both games is thanks to a 2-run bomb that Drew Smith gave up after Verlander exited thanks to throwing a million pitches through the first 5 innings.

Tonight, the Mets will turn the ball over to Senga and he stands a really solid chance of limiting damage also tonight. The only thing that has really held Senga back in his first season in the Majors is his propensity to give out free passes to hitters. If he can command his pitches tonight and get the ball over the plate, the Mets should be able to win their second game of this 4-game series. This Brewers lineup is bad and the Mets starters have exploited that. They’ll do it again tonight.

Blake Snell vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is the Blake Snell the Padres were hoping for when they traded for him back in 2020. He’s been brilliant over the last month. Over his last 31 innings of work, Snell has struck out more than 44% of the batters he’s faced, he’s pitched to a .29 ERA (his xFIP is 1.82), and has allowed a WHIP of .71. He’s finally pitching like the ace everyone thought he would eventually turn into.

Do I expect him to continue at this pace for much longer? I don’t know, but I’m going to take advantage of it until the flame burns out. With a matchup against the Pirates today, I don’t think that happens just yet. The Pirates have improved this season, but a lot of that improvement we saw earlier this season has somewhat washed away. Look for Snell to continue with his dominance tonight.

Other pitchers I like today will be Aaron Nola vs. Chicago, Logan Allen vs. KC, and Braxton Garrett vs. Boston.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Luke Weaver

Oh do the Orioles get a sweet matchup today vs. Luke Weaver. Weaver has been atrocious over the last month. Over his last 5 outings, he’s given up 23 ER. 10 of those ER have come in his last 2 outings. Having to face a lineup as deep as the Orioles today is going to be a huge test for the Reds’ right-hander. There is little that Weaver has done well over the last month.

His WHIP is pushing 2, his contact rate is nearly 88%, and he has a minuscule chase rate of just 23%. The Orioles should have a field day against him on the first day without rain in what seems like forever. With Weaver, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. He’s bad against both sides of the plate. Like really bad.

While I’m going to lay out my preferred bats here, the entire lineup tonight will be in play. My priority bats here are going to be Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, and Ryan O’Hearn. All three of these guys have crushed righties this season and should be able to get to Weaver tonight. Santander has been swinging the hottest stick of all as he has 8 hits in his last 25 AB. 3 of those hits have left the ballpark.

After those 3, I’ll also look to get in Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Austin Hays. I will add though that Rutschman is in a bit of a funk right now. That said, there’s no better slump-buster than Luke Weaver.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland

The Dodgers get just a glorious matchup today vs. Kyle Freeland. Freeland has been really bad over the last month. His ERA over the last 30 days is 6 and his xFIP is just a shade under there. He’s someone that gives up exactly what we look for when stacking. His hard-hit rate against over the last month is 39% and his flyball rate is nearly 40%.

He’s also given up 12 barrels in his last 27 innings of work. With how much contact Freeland gives up, he’s going to get destroyed by the Dodgers tonight. I’m going to give righties a slight edge in this matchup. Righties have a slightly higher ISO and wOBA vs. Freeland this season and that’s consistent with his career.

Don’t be scared to go to the back of this lineup tonight. Last night, the Dodgers had 8 hits. 7 of those hits came from 5-9 in the batting order. They are also going to be considerably cheaper. That doesn’t mean that guys like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are bad plays. They are far from it.

We can just get different here and save some money by going with guys like J.D. Martinez, Miguel Vargas, and Miguel Rojas. They are riskier than guys at the top of the order, but they’ll be lower-owned in a phenomenal matchup. That said, guys like Betts and Will Smith are going to be great plays in this matchup. All Dodgers are in play tonight.

Other bats I like tonight will be Oakland vs. Domingo German, Tampa vs. Zach Davies, and Texas vs. Joey Wentz

MLB DFS Summary

Unfortunately, tonight’s still a Coors night and fading the Dodgers against Freeland is going to be tough. There are still though a bunch of teams in really great spots tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces and Stacks (June 26)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

It’s Monday Funday! And that means we have a smaller than slate of MLB DFS. Tonight we’ll have 6 games to work with, 2 of which have the potential for some really nasty storms. This slate brings us a little bit of everything. Solid pitching, disappointing pitchers, and some solid bats in line to have monster nights.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Dylan Cease vs. Los Angeles Angels

Dylan Cease appears to have re-found his mojo. Over the last month, Cease has been the Cease we’ve come to love. A pitcher that strikes out batters at an excessive amount. Over his last 26 innings of work, Cease has a massive 36% K rate. That’s higher than any pitcher, including Spencer Strider, on this slate. And do you want to know what makes it even better? Cease is just $7.7k tonight.

So we’re getting a pitcher that has racked up 44 strikeouts over his last 5 outings for a bargain bin price. Now don’t get me wrong, he’s far from safe. The Angels are a very good lineup. They just put up a 25 spot the other night. That said, I really like the form that Cease is in right now and he’s been an ace-caliber pitcher in the past. I’m locking him in as a value starter tonight.

Justin Verlander vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The version of Justin Verlander that the Mets have received so far has not been a good one. For the most part, this season has been a struggle for last year’s AL Cy Young award winner. Even though it’s been a struggle, I do like the spot for him tonight. The Brewers have been an extremely inconsistent lineup this season. They can put up runs with the best of them, but they can also strike out with the worst of them.

Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% K rate and an OPS of just .684. As I said, this is a good spot for Verlander to dial it back and have one of his vintage outings. We also have some trends with Verlander. Every other outing for Verlander this season has been over 20 DK points. In his last outing, he scored just 12. You know what that means. He’s getting us over 20 DK points at just $8.3k.

Other pitchers I like today will be Spencer Strider vs. Minnesota and Luis Castillo vs. Washington (concerned a bit with Washington’s propensity to not strike out).

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson

Brandon Williamson is arguably the worst pitcher throwing tonight. Over the last month, he has by far the worst xFIP and ERA of any pitcher on the mount. In his last 26 innings of work, he’s allowed 6 homers and 12 barrels. All of this damage has led to him having an ERA over 6.00 over that stretch. The only thing keeping him afloat right now is that he’s had some good command.

He’s allowed just 2.36 BB/9, which has led to an ok WHIP of 1.46. With Williamson, we want to focus mostly on the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Righties have a .293 ISO and a .372 wOBA against him this season. He’s allowed a 36% flyball rate and a nearly 57% hard-hit rate vs. them. Let’s load up on some righties for the Orioles.

I’m going to load up on the first 3 hitters in this lineup. Austin Hays, Adley Rutchsman, and Anthony Santander all have great numbers this season vs. lefties. Santander is the key here. His numbers against lefties this season are far and away the best on the team. Through 79 plate appearances, Santander has a .409 wOBA and a.238 ISO. He’s also coming into this one swinging the hottest stick in this lineup. Over the last week, Santander has 4 homers and a 1.333 OPS.

Other bats we’ll want to include will be Aaron Hicks (yes, that Aaron Hicks), Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Urias. If this game plays without a hitch, the Orioles should be able to put up a big number.

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd

The advanced metrics say that Matthew Boyd shouldn’t be this bad. His xFIP is sitting at just 3.21 over the last month. That’s more than 2 runs lower than his actual ERA over the same period. He’s not giving up too many flyballs and he’s not letting a whole lot of runners on. His issue has been once those runners get on, they score. He has a slate worse 59% LOB %. So once he’s letters runners on, more than 40% of them score.

While a little unlucky, you’re just not going to have much success if you can’t limit the damage and he hasn’t been able to limit the damage. To make matters worse for Boyd, he’s facing off against a team in the Rangers tonight that is one of the best in the league against southpaws. It’s going to be a huge struggle for him.

I’m going to prioritize getting guys like Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia, and Jonah Heim into my lineups today. Josh Jung has been making a huge case for Rookie of the Year this season with his stellar play, even though he’s quieted down a smidge. Against lefties this season, Jung has a .444 wOBA and a .324 ISO. His numbers against them are extremely impressive.

Another play that I want to make sure I get into my lineups will be Ezequiel Duran. He’s hot at the plate right now and has also been stellar vs. lefties. Over his last 24 AB, he has 8 hits and an OPS of .958. Both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are in play tonight, I’m just not going to force them in.

Other bats I like tonight will be Cincy vs. Cole Irvin, Mets vs. Colin Rea, and Mariners vs. Trevor Williams. Braves as always, are in play.

MLB DFS Summary

The story of the night will be the weather. There are a few games where weather may cause us to go in a different route. We’ll want to keep an eye on Baltimore and New York.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (May 3)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

On this fine Wednesday, we have a nice-sized 8-game slate of MLB DFS. Pitching, as has been the case on most slates this season, is very dicey. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, there are few pitchers in good spots. That said, we have a bunch of offense in solid spots so this should be a fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Shohei Ohtani vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The 2023 version of the Cardinals is an absolute mess. A team that was dominant vs. lefties last season was held in check last night by Patrick Sandoval. He let up just a single run. This was a matchup that a year ago they would have scored a healthy amount of runs. Well, it’s 2023 and the Cardinals are really struggling. With how badly they are struggling this season, Ohtani should be able to have a ceiling type of game tonight.

He doesn’t come without risk though. Ohtani is coming off a start that saw him give up 5 ER against the Oakland Athletics. Anything can happen on any given day, but I do like the chances of Ohtani having one of his normal dominant outings tonight.

Louie Varland vs. Chicago White Sox

There’s no shot at double aces tonight so I’m going to drop down right to the very bottom of the salary range tonight. Varland is coming off a very strong initial start. Although he gave up 3 homers to the Yankees in that start, he also struck out 8 of them. His groundball rate of 50% in that start was also very impressive. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground and have his 32% strikeout rate that he did against the Yankees, he could be one of the top values tonight on the mound.

Similar to the Cardinals, this is also a team really struggling. The 2023 White Sox are already 12 games under .500 and after tonight will more than likely be 13. When you’re dealing with a $6k pitcher there’s almost always a high level of risk, but I’m willing to ride that because there’s also a great level of reward here

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Chicago Cubs vs. Jake Irvin

The Washington Nationals will turn the ball over to Jake Irvin tonight, a pitcher making his major league debut. With Irvin, we’re not talking about a pitcher that is a top prospect. Most scouts predict he’ll be a back end of the rotation guy. Irvin has struggled so far in the minors this season. In 5 starts for Rochester, he has as 5.64 ERA and a strike out rate of just 20%. He’s someone that will most certainly struggle against big league hitting at the start.

It looks like all Cody Bellinger needed was a change of scenery to get back his once MVP-caliber bat. Since coming from paternity leave, he’s 4 for 15 with 2 homers and 5 runs scored. He’s a force in the middle of this lineup and one that I’ll be locking into my MLB DFS stacks tonight.

I’ll also look to add in Dansby Swanson. Swanson is one of the hotter hitters in the game right now. Over the last week, he has 8 hits and has 4 RBI. He also has an OPS of over 1.000. Other bats I like here will be Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Trey Mancini

Baltimore Orioles vs. Zack Greinke

With each start, it’s becoming more and more obvious that Zack Greinke is washed up. Greinke is coming off by far his worst outing of the year as he gave up 7 ER to the Minnesota Twins last week. Over his last 3 starts, he’s given up 15 ER. I’m expecting more of the same tonight vs. a very solid Orioles lineup. Greinke has been pretty abysmal vs. both sides of the plate so I won’t be overly concerned with splits here.

I’m starting my O’s stack off with Adley Rutschman. While the power hasn’t been there for me recently, it’s only a matter of time. He’s hitting the ball hard (45% hard-hit rate over the last week) and putting the ball in play as he has 9 hits in his last 20 AB. With a launch angle of around 12%, a slight adjustment and those hard-hit balls will leave the park.

I also like Cedric Mullins here and Ryan Mountcaslte. Mountcastle is coming off a monster night so his ownership may be exaggerated, but he’s always a solid play vs. a bad pitcher. I’ll also look to include guys like Austin Hayes, Anthony Santander, and Jorge Mateo.

Other stacks I like tonight are both ends of the Coors game, Boston vs. Alek Manoah (Verdugo would be the priority), and Seattle vs. JP Sears.

MLB DFS Summary

I plan on loading up on O’s bats once again. They helped me last night and they’ll help me again tonight. Pitching, I’m not straying from the 2 names I mentioned.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 12)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

We finally have ourselves a full slate of baseball on a Friday night. Tonight, we have a massive 12-game slate of MLB DFS. Pitching-wise, we have a slate that is full of average to slightly above-average arms. There are few clear aces here so we’ll need to dig deep to find arms that will be able to fully take advantage of their spots. With that, we also have a bunch of bats in great spots making for a fun evening of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Kodai Senga vs. Oakland Athletics

Kodai Senga gets one of the better matchups on paper tonight. I’m going to completely ignore the number of runs that the A’s were able to put up against the Orioles because the Orioles’ pitching staff is going to be historically bad this season. Senga should be able to walk through this lineup with relative ease.

If you end up using Senga tonight and watch the game, you’ll want to skip the first inning. In both of his starts this season, he’s struggled in the first and then settled down nicely to win both. His ghost forkball is nearly unhittable and if it’s on tonight, he should be able to strike out a ton of A’s hitters. In my opinion, he’s the clear SP1 tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a very strong lineup on paper. That said, they are also an extremely inconsistent lineup and one that wasn’t able to do anything last night vs. a far inferior pitcher in Spencer Turnbull. They showed last night that they can be had and next up to do it will be Drew Rasmussen.

Rasmussen is coming into this after back-to-back stellar outings. Through 2 starts, he’s sporting a nearly 36% K rate. Now the 2 starts were against the Nationals and the A’s, but he’s been spot-on with his pitches. Not only has he been striking out a ton of batters, but the batters that do make contact are not getting good wood on the pitches. Hitters this season have just a 15% hard-hit rate vs. him. He’s been great and he’ll continue to roll tonight vs. the Blue Jays

I know I normally stick with 3 aces, but after Rasmussen and Senga tonight, there’s not a single pitcher that I feel comfortable recommending. Each has a ton of risk or just isn’t very good. I’ll be rocking double aces tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Mets vs. James Kaprielian

James Kaprielian is one of of my favorite pitchers to target when he’s on the mound. He’s someone that just gives up a ton of contact (83%), a ton of fly balls (47%), and a ton of hard hits (50%). The three of these things combined make for a pitcher that plays with fire and when you face a solid lineup like the Mets, it’s going to make for a very tough evening. While Kaprielian has been pretty bad vs. both sides of the plate this season, he’s been especially bad vs. lefties. Lefties have a .512 wOBA and a .480 ISO vs. him.

Knowing how bad Kap has been against lefties this season, that brings Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Jeff McNeil into play. Nimmo, who has been an on-base machine this season, is fairly priced at $4k tonight. With the new rules in place this season, Nimmo has also started to run more, with 3 stolen bases.

Of the 3 lefties I mentioned, Lindor is really the one with the power. That said, I’m never going to chase homers in Oakland. Lindor can easily have a full stat-line though tonight. He’s not a lefty, but Pete Alonso is off to a red-hot start. He’s the one righty that I’d really be interested in here as he possesses enough power to make even the largest of ballparks seem small. The Mets are a full stack for me tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger

This Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch and play in MLB DFS this season. Night in and night out, they’ll have players that can easily be the highest-scoring players on the night. Tonight they’ll get a nice matchup vs. a contact pitcher that gives up a ton of fly balls. On the year, Clevinger has a nearly 47% flyball rate and an 83% contact rate. Against an Orioles team that has a lot of pop, that’s going to make for a long (or short) night for Clevinger.

Any Orioles stack starts with Adley Rutschman. He’s someone that can go quiet at times, but he’s coming into this game right off a walk-off homer yesterday vs. the A’s. Rutschman is also someone that I really only target when he’s hitting from the left side. So far in his young career, he’s been a significantly better hitter from the left side.

Next up will be guys like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Jorge Matteo, and Gunnar Henderson. Each of the guys has the ability to produce full stat lines and that’s what we look for in MLB DFS. Matteo will get you steals with a little power mixed in. Both Hays and Mountcastle have a ton of power and Henderson is a great young bat. This lineup has a ton of potential tonight in a soft matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jake Woodford

The Cardinals are currently a mess. They were shut out by Vincent Velasquez last night 5-0 and turn the ball over to Jake Woodford tonight. Woodford has not looked overly good so far this season. Through 2 starts, Woodford has an xFIP of 5.46 and an ERA of 9. He’s been getting hit extremely hard, with 5 barrels allowed in just 9 innings of work.

He’s also given up 4 homers in those 9 innings. Until he gets things right, he is someone we’ll want to attack. Although the Pirates aren’t someone I’d normally target on a large slate like this, I’m going double aces tonight and I need some value. The Pirates will provide that.

The main bat when it comes to the Pirates is Bryan Reynolds. He’s far from a value piece as he’s $5.9k tonight. If you can afford him, go for it. I’m more interested in the bottom of the lineup and guys like Carlos Santana, Ji-man Choi, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Rodolfo Castro. Each of them is under $4k. Santana has had a really solid week, with 6 wRC and a .993 OPS. He’s only $3.5k and gets the platoon advantage being that he’s a switch hitter.

Hayes is someone that is churning to break out. He has only 5 hits in his last 27 AB, but he’s had a 90% contact rate. If you put the ball in play 90% of the time as he does, good things will eventually come your way.

MLB DFS Summary

I’m going to keep things simple on this large slate. I’m going double aces and stacking 1 expensive stack with a cheap stack. Many of the hurlers on the mound today carry an inherent risk. I didn’t mention the Rays as a stack tonight because I think tonight is the night their streak ends. Berrios, although he has a high ERA, hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers indicate. He could easily shut them down tonight.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 7)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Thanks to some questionable forecasts for storms yesterday, we have a really nice afternoon slate of baseball. What was supposed to be a 4-game slate, has turned into a 6-game slate. Those 6-games should be a ton of fun to both watch and play some MLB DFS on. Pitching is on the blah side but we have some good matchups and also some great spots for offense.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Zack Wheeler vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Phillies were one of the teams that pushed back their home opener to Friday, giving us a great matchup for Zack Wheeler against the Cincinnati Reds. In Wheeler’s first outing of the year, he faced a much tougher task with the Texas Rangers. Although he gave up a handful of runs, he also struck out 7 in just 4 innings of work. This Reds lineup is a much weaker lineup (sorry Jimmy) and one that should help Wheeler get back on track and have one of the more dominant outings that we’ve grown accustomed to.

Alex Cobb vs. Kansas City Royals

Through their first 7 games of the season, the Kansas City Royals have scored 17 runs. They are part of just a handful of teams that still haven’t gotten out of the teens in terms of scoring runs. Outside of the top 3-4 hitters on this team, they are nothing more than a AAA lineup at best. It’s going to be a long season for Royals fans in 2023.

With Cobb, we have someone that had a decent start to the year. Facing a much tougher Yankees lineup, Cobb went into the fourth inning striking out 6 and giving up just one run thanks to a homer by Giancarlo Stanton. Cobb is a groundball pitcher and if he can combine his strikeouts with his groundball tendencies, he should be able to thoroughly dominate this weak Royals lineup today.

Hunter Green vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a wild card pick today. The Phillies haven’t yet looked themselves this season. They’re just 1-5 through 6 games and like the Royals, they are one of the handful of teams to currently have less than 20 runs scored on this young season. Do they have a strong lineup? Yes, but it’s also one that’s banged up.

This is a matchup that Greene could potentially really excel in. Last season, he had a 35% k rate vs. lefties compared to just 26.5% vs. righties. He’s going to face a lineup today that potentially has 5 lefties in it. He’s going to give up some damage, but the fastball-throwing Greene has a high strikeout capability today.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer

The Yankees get one of the best matchups on the board today as they take on Dean Kremer. Kremer struggled in his initial outing vs. Boston, giving up 5 ER in just 3 innings of work and also allowing 2 homers. Hitters had a nearly 55% hard-hit rate vs. him and a 64% flyball rate. What a deadly combo to give up! If he’s as hittable today vs. the Yankees, the Yankees can put up a massive number vs. him and the Orioles’ bullpen.

Core: Any Yankees stack needs to start with Aaron Judge. He’s got home run potential in every at-bat and with a flyball pitcher on the mound, that potential goes up exponentially. He’s already up to 2 bombs, look for him to add at least a third one to his total today. I also really like Gleyber Torres here. Torres has been one of the Yankees’ better bats to start the 2023 campaign. You could argue he’s been their best bat so far. He’s not only putting up numbers at the plate, but he’s also up to 5 stolen bases. In this new era of MLB, stolen bases have become more of a common occurrence. A homer and a stolen base aren’t out of the question from Torres today.

Secondary: Other bats we’ll want to target here are going to be Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMehieu, and Oswaldo Cabrera. A full stack of the Yankees is very much in play, with 4 as my preferred number. They should all be able to get to Kremer today.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Clarke Schmidt

A complete game stack of the game in Baltimore today is very much in play. Schmidt had a little bit of a rough go at it in his first outing vs. the Giants. While he was able to strike out 5 in just a little over 3 innings of work, he also gave up 2 bombs and 3 ER. Hitters had a 50% hard-hit rate vs. him and had 3 barrels. A nearly 1:1 ratio of barrels to innings pitched is one I like to see when stacking against a pitcher. He’s going to have his hands full with a very good Orioles lineup today.

Core: This Orioles lineup has been exceptional to start the year. If they had good pitching, they’d be in a much better spot. My core with the Orioles today will be Austin Hays, Jorge Mateo, and Cedric Mullins. All three of these guys have started out the year extremely strong. Mateo has shown both power and speed to start the year. He’s already banged 2 homers while swiping 4 bags. He’s always a risk to get a 0, but he’s also someone that has extreme upside thanks to his speed/power combo. Mullins is also in the same boat as Mateo. He’s shown power and speed to start the year.

Secondary: Other bats that will round out my Orioles stack today will be Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, and Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman has really cooled off since his opening day 5-5 game, but he’s one of the top young bats in the game and can go off at any time. My favorite of the secondary bats is Ryan Mountcastle. He’s been hitting the ball extremely well.

San Francisco Giants vs. Brad Keller

The Giants get a great matchup today vs. Brad Keller. Keller is an average at-best pitcher who has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 5. In his initial outing this season vs. the Twins, Keller did strike out 5. He also walked 4 and gave up 5 hits in just over 4 innings of work. That equates to a WHIP of pretty close to 2. One of the most important things in MLB DFS is targeting pitchers that put guys on. A WHIP of 1.93 is really bad, making Keller a prime target for stacking against today.

Core: My core with the Giants is going to be their left-handed power bats plus a right-handed bat. I’m going to be targeting guys like Michael Conforto, Joc Pederson, and David Villar. All three of these guys have home-run potential in this matchup. Conforto, after missing all of the 2022 season with a bum shoulder, had his breakout game yesterday. He reached base 5 times and even went deep for his second homer of the season. Expect more of that today. All three are extremely cheap today too.

Secondary/Value: I also like Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, and Brandon Crawford. This lineup today has a ton of potential against Keller.

MLB DFS Summary

This early slate looks to be a lot of fun. We have some solid pitching plus some bats in really good spots. That Orioles/Yankees game looks juicy from a stacking standpoint.

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

2 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Sept. 26)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.

Tonight we have a small 4-game slate of MLB DFS tonight. With so few teams on the schedule, we’ll be extremely limited with our options. Pitching, for all intents and purposes, is absolutely gross tonight. If you were to take a slate off, pick tonight. If you do play, play light.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Bryce Elder vs. Washington Nationals

The rookie pitcher for the Braves will be making the eighth start of his career tonight. So far, the results have been very good for the 23-year-old. Over his last 3 starts, he’s been brilliant. He’s allowed just 2 ER over 18 innings of work and has struck out 22 hitters.

One of those starts came recently against this same Nationals team and he was able to walk right through them. While it’s always tough to face a team a second straight time, our options are limited right now and Elder has been really good. I’m willing to roll the dice on such a short slate on him.

Luis Severino vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Luis Severino made his first inning last week in more than 2 months. He looked extremely sharp vs. the Pirates, going 5 strong while striking out 6 and allowing just 1 ER on 2 hits. While the Blue Jays are a much tougher opponent than the Pirates, Severino has been strong all year when healthy. His K/9 is just about at 10 and he has an xFIP and ERA right under 3.40.

The Blue Jays are going to be a tough draw for Severino, but the Blue Jays have shown at times this season to have nights where they simply just don’t show up. Severino also lines up well with the Blue Jays. He throws his slider around 45% of the time to righties and he’ll face a lineup filled with righties tonight. Outside of Bichette, all of the regulars in this lineup have a whiff rate over 30% to righty sliders. There could be a lot of upside tonight for Severino, more than the risk hopefully.

Roansy Contreras vs. Cincinnati Reds

I told you that pitching was rough tonight didn’t I? The Pirates’ 22-year-old right-hander will be making his 17^th start of the season tonight. That’s the most that he’s had in any season since A ball in 2019. The Pirates have been mostly capping him at 5-6 innings and we can’t expect tonight to be any different. With options so limited tonight, I’m willing to go with an abbreviated start from him over some of the other gems this slate brings us.

This will be start number 3 vs. the Reds so far this season. In his first 2 starts, Contreras was pretty solid, allowing just 2 ER and striking out 10 over 9 innings of work. At $7.5k tonight on DK, we aren’t going to need too much from him to get value. He’s been in double-digit points on DK in 6 consecutive starts. If he can do that again tonight, I’ll be content.

A case could also be made for Chase Anderson tonight. He’s pitched extremely well over his last 3 starts, allowing just 4 ER. He’s also just $6.3k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Atlanta Braves vs. Corey Abbott

The Braves get arguably the best matchup tonight as they take on Corey Abbott. Abbott is coming into this game off one of his poorer starts of the year. Against the Braves a week ago, he allowed 4 ER in just 4 innings of work. In that start, and what really has me going back to this spot, he gave up a 50% hard-hit rate and 2 barrels.

Through the first handful of appearances for Abbott, he had been doing a good job of only allowing soft to medium contact. That has really shifted of late. In his last 3 appearances, he’s allowed 75%, 54%, and 50% hard-hit rates. In his last 14 innings of work, he’s given up 6 barrels and 3 homers. Hitters are now seeing him incredibly well. We’ll want to kick off our Braves stack with lefties. They have a .519 slugging % vs. him and a .384 wOBA. That said, righties have a .452 slugging % vs. him too, so we won’t want to ignore them.

Core/Value: I’m starting out my Braves core with Eddie Rosario, Michael Harris, and Matt Olson. Of the 3, Harris is going to be my favorite. He’s been tormenting righties over the last month as he has a .503 wOBA and a .322 ISO. He’s also been solid vs. them all season. His average against them this season is up to .330 with 17 homers.

Up next is Eddie Rosario. Rosario has been playing sparingly and my hope is that he’s in the lineup today. He’s just $2.5k on DK and in a matchup he should do well in. When in the lineup recently, he’s been good. He has hits in 4 straight, including a 2 hit performance yesterday vs. the Phillies.

With Olson, there’s a risk. Over his last 9 AB, he’s whiffed 6 times. He’s in one of the worst stretches of baseball in his career right now. That said, Abbott is a low strikeout pitcher and if ever there was a bounce-back spot for him, tonight would be it.

Secondary Pieces: Other bats I’ll look to include here tonight will be Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud. All three have wOBA’s over .350 vs. righties over the last month. Acuna and Riley are the heart and soul of this team. If you can fit them tonight, and you should be able to with the cost of pitchers, play them.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Connor Seabold

As someone that lives 20 minutes from Camden Yards, just the mere fact that they are just 4 games out of the playoffs on 9/26 is something I never thought would have been possible this season. The Orioles need to win just about every game at this point to stay in the playoff hunt and get a great matchup today.

Connor Seabold hasn’t pitched much this season, but when he has he’s been pretty bad. He’s been on the mound with the big club 4 times so far this season. In those 4 appearances, he’s allowed 19 ER in just 16 innings of work. Allowing more than a run per inning is a pretty rate! Against Seabold, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. So far his in brief Major League career, Seabold hasn’t shown the ability to get either side of the plate out so I won’t be too concerned with splits.

Core: I’m starting my Oriole stack tonight with the 3 guys that should be at the top of the lineup, with 2 guys being the future of this organization. I’m going to build around Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is coming into this one on the cold side, going hitless in his last 4 games. A matchup with Seabold should wake him. Henderson’s been strong vs. righties over the last month, with a .374 wOBA and a .224 ISO.

Through the first few months of his career, Rutschman has shown why he was the first overall pick in 2019. He’s been a beast behind the plate and has also been really solid offensively. He’s been good vs. righties over the last month, with a .382 wOBA and a .205 ISO. At $4.7k tonight on DK, he’s the cheapest he’s been in quite a while. Let’s take advantage of that “discount”.

Secondary/Value: Other Orioles bats I like tonight will be Anthony Santander, Terrin Vavra, and Kyle Stowers. Should Vavra and Stowers make the lineup tonight, they’ll be great value plays. Both are at or just about at the min price on DK tonight and will get the platoon advantage.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jordan Lyles

A complete game stack here is in play. While Jordan Lyles has been much improved this season, most of that has been at home. His road ERA this season is 2 runs higher at 5.48. He’s been way more susceptible away from Camden Yards and we’ll want to take advantage of that.

Before his complete game shutout of the Tigers, Lyles had thrown 2 duds. One of those duds was against this same Red Sox team. In that game, he allowed 8 ER in just a little less than 4 innings of work. While I doubt we see a carbon copy of that game, I do expect the Red Sox to be able to hit him hard tonight. With Lyles, we want to prioritize getting lefty bats against him. They have a nearly .500 slugging % vs. him and a .360 wOBA. 14 of the 24 homers he’s allowed this season have been to lefties.

Core: Knowing that Lyles is way worse against lefties, I’m going to prioritize getting Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and Reese McGuire into my Red Sox MLB DFS stack. While Devers is the big name here, Verdugo and McGuire are actually the batters that have been against righties over the last month. Verdugo has a wOBA of .379 vs. them and an ISO of .214. McGuire has been even better, with a .324 ISO and a .375 wOBA. All 3 will be in my Red Sox stack tonight.

Value: After my core, I’ll look to get in guys like Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham, and for value Yu Chang. Chang, while in limited AB, has a .438 wOBA vs. righties over the last month and is just $2.2k on DK tonight.

MLB DFS Summary

Other MLB DFS stacks I really like tonight will the Pirates vs. Anderson if you don’t use Anderson and the Yankees vs. Gausman.

Make sure to check out our Home Run Model. And Also make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 9/25 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 09/09

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a small 4 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

I’ll start by saying no pitcher is safe tonight. It’s a weird slate in which the highest priced pitcher is just $9.1k. If you are playing the slate tonight, play light.

Jose Berrios ($9.1k) vs. New York Yankees – After a slow start to his Blue Jays career Berrios has really settled in nicely over the last couple of starts. He has struck out 18 in his last 13 innings of work.

Over the past month he’s sporting a slate leading 26% K rate and 3.69 xFIP. He’s been doing a great job of getting ahead of hitters with a 67% first strike %. He does have two red flags tonight. One being the match up isn’t the greatest as the Yankees are a tough lineup but from a pure K ability he’s the top pitcher tonight.

The second being that he’s been giving up a healthy amount of hard contact at 35.9% over the past month. The one reason I may lock in Berrios tonight is that he Yankees are struggling a bit this week with a 28% K rate. Can Berrios take advantage of a team on a downward spiral?

Ranger Suarez ($8.6k) vs. Colorado Rockies – Suarez may be the safest of the bunch tonight as he gets to take on a Rockies team that is nowhere near as good away from home. Suarez has also been very solid of late. Over the past month he has 3.79 xFIP and hasn’t given up a single homer in over 26 innings of work.

Suarez has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game and gives up just a ton of groundballs. While the Rockies lineup isn’t too bad against sinkers, most of that has to do w/ sinkers not doing a whole lot of sinking in Coors. Suarez has 3 straight outings of at least 34 FD points, with a 42 point effort against a solid Rays teams. Look for Suarez to be the top scoring pitcher on the night.

Antonio Senzatela ($8.4k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – I expect this game to be a low scoring affair as we have *cough* two of the top pitchers on the slate throwing here. Senzatela isn’t a high strike out pitcher but if we look at the slate tonight, only 2 pitchers have a K rate greater than 24% over the last month.

In Senzatela we have a pitcher that stands a good chance to limit the damage. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher with a 50% groundball rate over the past month. This has led him to give up just 1 homer in the last 33 innings of work. In his last 3 outings he’s scored 30 FD in each. During that stretch he’s faced the Dodgers and Braves. If he can perform well against those 2 lineups, he should also do well tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Baltimore Orioles vs. Carlos Hernandez – I anticipate Hernandez being chalky tonight because of the match up against the last place Orioles. On a small slate like tonight I want to attack a questionable chalk choice. Hernandez has a bunch of red flags over the past 30 days.

The first being there’s a huge gap between his ERA and xFIP. His ERA is sitting at 2.55 while his xFIP is more than 2 runs higher. Here’s what I think is causing that delta. He’s given up 6 barrels in just 24 innings of work. So at least 1 per game. He’s getting behind on a large amount of batters with a first strike % of 57%. Lastly, he has a .232 BABIP. There’s been some luck on his side and at some point the luck is going to run out.

Surprisingly, the O’s have flipped the scrip a bit of late and are hitting righties much better. Over the past 30 days the O’s have 4 batters with ISO’s greater than .360 against righties. Mullins ($3.4k) has a .385, Mountcastle ($3.5k) has a .406, Santander ($3.3k) has a .367, and Stewart ($2.7k) has a .500. Look for the O’s to get to Hernandez early and then get a beat up pen for the Royals.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nestor Cortes – We have one team in the Yankees that are in a tailspin and a team in the Blue Jays that are fighting like heck to pass the Yankees in the standings. At the point in the season we are in, that’s where I want to go with my stacks. A team fighting for something that is playing great ball.

The match up for the Blue Jays is also solid. The sweet spot to attack Cortes is batters from the right side. Over the last 30 days righties have a 51% fly ball rate and 40% hard hit rate. They also have a .213 ISO. With the Blue Jays we have a lineup loaded with righties.

It starts with Alejandro Kirk ($2.6k) who is extremely under priced considering his recent form. Over the last month he has a .308 ISO against lefties. If we go with even more recent data, he has a 1.412 OPS and a wRC+ of 270 over the last week.

Teoscar Hernandez ($4.1k) burned me on Sunday, but we have to have short memories in DFS. Over the last 30 days he has a .464 ISO vs. lefties. Those two are my building blocks here but the entire lineup is in play. Don’t be scared to load up on the back end of this lineup. That’s where you’ll see the lower owned guys in what will be a chalky stack.

Kansas City Royals vs. John Means – Means’ biggest struggles of late have come against righties. His ISO jumps from .143 against lefties over the last month all the way up to .415 to righties. The good news for us is that the Royals have a few righties that are really hitting the ball hard. Over the last week one guy that continues to go under the radar is Michael Taylor ($2.5k). He has a 45% hard hit rate and a 35% line drive rate. He’s seeing the ball really well right now and gets a great match up tonight.

I’ll also look to grab Perez ($3.9k) who is riding a 7 game hitting streak. Look for him to take Means deep tonight. This game has the potential to be a shoot out tonight. You’ll want to grab bats from both side of this game.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching tonight is going to be tough. My lean right now is to go safe and grab Suarez who will provide us a decent floor. We don’t typically chase a floor, but on a night like tonight we may need to. A game stack of Bal/KC may be the way to go and the Baltimore side should be under owned.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

Collector’s Corner: 2021 MLB Breakouts – AL Hitter Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s Collector’s Corner takes an early look at some possible 2021 breakouts in the AL – and the trading cards to collect from this bunch.

By now, everyone knows to collect Luis Robert trading cards, but there’s a huge crop of baseball prospects whose trading cards could see a huge bump in 2021 and beyond if they have breakout seasons. Here are nine such players in the AL you should be stocking in your collection.

NOTE: I’m using my Cash/GPP/Punt system again since it translates well to the DFS/trading card investment comparison.

Breakout Trading Cards – Cash

Wander Franco, TB SS

I shouldn’t have to say much about Franco – who’s now the top prospect in baseball – but since he hasn’t played since 2019, he’s flying a bit under the radar.

Franco does everything well and is projected for about 90 games at the major league level in 2021 – a call-up that will immediately cause a bump in his rookie trading cards. You can buy 2019 1st Bowman #BP100 PSA GEM MINT 10 rookies for $100-125 apiece, and parallels and autos – while expensive – remain excellent long-term investments. I’m happy to have a sharp 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire #BCP-1 (second year) in my collection, but I’m working on adding some of his rookies.

He’s not slated for a spot in the Rays lineup on day one of the 2021 season, but once he’s here he may be here to stay.

It’s his second year, but I love the look of this card. The Bowman Chrome Sapphire is one of my favorite products.

Ryan Mountcastle, BAL OF

Mountcastle had an auspicious 2020 debut for the Birds, and he did an excellent radio interview where he talks about the transition to the majors and how he fared in his rookie season (“I held my own”). The multi-positional fielder – who played mostly outfield for Baltimore – posted a solid .333/.386/.492 slash line with five homers and a 141 wRC+ in 35 games.

It’s a small smaple, for sure, but I love guys who can play all over the diamond and remain entrenched in the everyday lineup, and Mountcastle is one of those guys. THE BAT, ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2021 all have him hitting over 20 homers with a wRC+ north of 100.

You can pick up graded 2015 rookies for a reasonable price, and he’s a hitter who’ll be smack dab in the middle of a potent group of young hitters, so his 2021 production could well exceed expectations.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS 1B/3B

This guy can mash. He hit eight homers in just 92 ABs for the Red Sox in his 2020 debut, and as a corner infielder he should consistently find a way into the Boston lineup. The 42.4% K rate is a bit disconcerting, but as far as raw power metrics goes, his .338 ISO stands out as an obscene number that points to 40+ HR upside for the 2016 draft pick.

2021 projections from the aforementioned sources are unanimous in assuming 25+ HRs for the upcoming season, and his path to 30+ is only clouded by how often he can make things happen and avoid a prolonged slump at the dish.

A natural third baseman, his 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft rookie trading cards are still dirt cheap, and he’s a solid investment in a huge market city – even if he’s a guy who strikes out almost 200 times in a 15-game season.

This PSA 10 Dalbec in a rare blue refractor parallel auto can be had for less than $1K — a price that could double or triple in value if he has a monster season in Boston.

Breakout Trading Cards – GPP

Andrew Vaughn, CWS 1B

With Robert off the list and getting regular MLB at-bats, Vaughn is now the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system, and while he’s not expected to start the 2021 season in the majors, he’s just 22 years old slated for a mid-season arrival.

There’s not a clear path to regular playing time in the field just yet, but Vaughn could become the White Sox DH for a large chunk of the 2021 season, which could be a difficult adjustment for someone used to playing the field.

Still – he was so good in big league campo after he was drafted in 2019 that he was almost brought up to the majors in 2020. While his 2019 trading cards are pretty hot, there’s still plenty of room for growth. I really hate the 2019 Bowman design, but that’s his first Bowman card. I did manage to pull a couple of his 2020 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractors, but it’s important I cave and just grab some of his rookies.

My buddy Chris Gilmore over at Vintage Breaks owns this beautiful PSA 10 Vaughn rookie in the 2019 Bowman Sapphire Edition. He shows it off once in a while during his VB South breaks on YouTube.

Jo Adell, LAA OF

Adell didn’t find much success as a rookie outfielder for the Angels in 2020, but he’s still 21 years old and has the tools and talent to bounce back in his sophomore campaign.

He may start the 2021 season in the Triple-A, and there’s a few hard-hitting outfielders who could complicate his return to The Show – but all five-tool prospects are worth some additional development if it increases their confidence. Adell was clearly rushed into the bigs last year – probably because he’s a high-energy guy and they wanted him to play baseball instead of languishing in the pandemic-induced hiatus that may have stunted the growth of an untold number of MLB prospects.

As a result, his 2017 rookie trading cards – even PSA 10s – are very inexpensive for an organizational No. 1. He’s worth adding to your collection and seeing what happens in the coming season.

Sean Murphy, OAK C

Murphy has the offensive and defensive chops to be an All-Star major league catcher for a long time, and we’ve already seen a little of what he’s capable of at the big-league level.

A legitimately great defender at a premium position who looks a lot like a poor man’s Buster Posey when it comes to his pitch-framing and solid bat, Murphy’s 2020 debut was promising – with a .233/.364/.457 slash line, seven HRs and a 132 wRC+ in just 43 games. That stretch earned him 1.5 WAR and an everyday spot in the Athletics’ lineup.

His 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie trading cards are still a huge bargain, and you can pick up a PSA 9 MINT auto rookie for under $100.

Breakout Trading Cards – Punt

Nolan Jones, CLE 3B

Like Dalbec, Jones was drafted in 2016, and his rookie trading cards are also still very affordable. He’s also got immense raw power, as seen by the .213 ISO he posted in 2019 for the team’s Double-A affiliate. Unlike Dalbec, he hasn’t played since 2019 since he wasn’t called up to the bigs.

Jones is now the No. 1 prospect for Cleveland and may or may not get his shot in 2021 – but we’ve seen hitters like him arrive to fill a lineup gap and just never leave. There’s probably less long-term risk involved than Dalbec, but he may not provide immediate dividends.

Evan White, SEA 1B

Kyle Lewis made a huge splash in 2020 and Julio Rodriguez may be ready to arrive by late 2021 or early 2022, but White will be in the Mariners lineup on opening day. His 2017 Bowman Chrome rookie autos are selling (raw) for low prices and PSA 10s can be had in the $100-200 range.

White struggled at the dish as a rookie in 2020 (.176/.252/.346 slash with a 41.6% K rate and just eight dingers in 200+ ABs), but THE BAT and Steamer projections have him improving drastically in 2021; only ZIPS has him hitting fewer than 20 homers with an average under .230.

For $140, this could be a steal if White can make more contact and hit a few more homers in 2021.

Nick Solak, TEX 2B

Big Nick is slated to bate out of the No. 5 slot in the Rangers 2021 lineup, and while he’s on his third organization since being drafted by the Yankees in 2016, his 2020 Topps trading cards earned the RC logo and are very cheap, very good investments.

Solak had a great MLB debut in 2019, took a step back in 2020, and is poised for a big 2021. His rookies have him on the Yankees, so that may not hurt their ability to fetch big prices as much as say 2015 Bowman Draft Mike Yastrzemski rookies in Orioles gear. He’s not a great defender and isn’t going to be a guy who hits 30+ homers or steals 30 bases, but he’s got 20-15 upside and a solid enough bat to move the needle on his trading cards in the next couple of years.

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