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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 17 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 17 NFL DFS MVP cand...

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $17,700, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Nick Chubb (DK $15,000, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $13,200, FD $10,500)

DK Punts: Willie Snead IV ($8,700) and Harrison Bryant ($6,300)

DK Contrarian Punts: Devin Duvernay ($2,400) and Marvin Hall ($300)

Last season, it would have sounded a bit crazy to suggest that Baker Mayfield would be a viable pivot from Lamar Jackson in this matchup, but here we are. You’re probably going to need at least one of them in your lineup this week, and there’s a few ways we can even fit both.

Neither of these defenses has played up to their abilities the past couple of weeks, but both are capable of posting double-digit fantasy totals, so we’ll have to keep them in mind as we construct our showdown rosters. They haven’t met since Week 1, when the Ravens were dominant from the start – and if I had to lean toward one of them it would be the Ravens DST since the Browns DST will be without Denzel Ward (calf).

The Ravens have several position players of interest, with Mark Andrews and rookie J.K. Dobbins sporting the highest upside. Andrews had a pair of TDs in the first meeting with Cleveland, and is coming off a two-game absence due to COVID-19, while Dobbins has assumed a much larger workload with capable RB Gus Edwards and veteran Mark Ingram II taking a backseat in recent weeks.

I like the price and target total over the past four weeks (25) for Willie Snead IV, and while it’s hard to trust Marquise Brown, Hollywood is always a big play away from making a huge impact. Devin Duvernay is a longshot DFS play but a very talented rookie WR and playmaker and capable of filling out a winning GPP entry.

For the Browns, we need to prioritize Nick Chubb, who has TDs and 100+ rushing yards in three of his past four games (and 522 total yards over that four-game span as well) since returning from a knee injury. Kareem Hunt is an expensive but viable change-of-pace back who lacks the same upside unless the Browns are in a negative game script – a possibility we should plan for in some of our GPPs.

Receivers Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins are soaking up most of the targets, and both have ben productive, while Austin Hooper’s absence (doubtful with a neck injury) could mean more looks for explosive rookie TE Harrison Bryant. Opportunistic rookie wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones is also a viable option with plenty of big play ability, especially in play action. It’ll also be interesting to see if recently acquired deep threat Marvin Hall sees some action, as he’s a game-breaking value at $300/200 on DK if he catches even one long throw.

As always, we should consider Ravens K Justin Tucker, who has at least 8 DK points in nine of 12 games this season (and double-digit fantasy output in five of those games) and Cody Parkey, who has 31 DK points over his last three games.

Week 14 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Include Nick Chubb somewhere. He’s been averaging about 100 yards and a TD every week since coming back, so I wouldn’t recommended fading him without using Kareem Hunt in a negative game script narrative build.

DON’T: Play anyone who is inactive. Pay attention to the breaking news and pivot as needed.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Baker Mayfield
  3. Nick Chubb
  4. Mark Andrews
  5. J.K. Dobbins
  6. Jarvis Landry
  7. Marquise Brown
  8. Rashard Higgins
  9. Willie Snead IV
  10. Kareem Hunt
  11. Ravens DST
  12. Justin Tucker
  13. Browns DST
  14. Cody Parkey
  15. Gus Edwards
  16. Donovan Peoples-Jones
  17. Harrison Bryant
  18. Mark Ingram II
  19. Devin Duvernay
  20. Marvin Hall
  21. David Njoku
  22. Miles Boykin
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The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please get in the game with a gold account and consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Joe Burrow (DK $16,200, FD $14,500)

Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,300, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Joe Mixon (DK $12,900, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #2: Tyler Boyd (DK $10,500, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Nick Chubb (DK $11,400, FD $13,500)

This is a pretty straight-forward Showdown slate, and I’m leaning toward using Joe Burrow as my MVP based on his ability to score on the ground or via the air with both his WRs and RBs.

I think the most ownership will end up with Burrow as the top guy, though I understand the contrarian pivot to Mayfield or a guy like Joe Mixon – the player likely to have the most touches in this game.

Both defenses are pretty banged up, and while the total is just 43.5, I’m expecting a higher-scoring game. If you have to play a defense in the top spot, make it the Browns (because of their pass rush) and fill in the rest of your lineups accordingly based on that narrative.

I’d steer clear of using a kicker in the MVP slot in this game because we probably don’t need to go there.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Joe Burrow as your MVP with no Bengals position players and the Browns DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Joe Burrow
  2. Joe Mixon
  3. Nick Chubb
  4. Tyler Boyd
  5. A.J. Green
  6. Odell Beckham, Jr.
  7. Baker Mayfield
  8. Jarvis Landry (questionable, hip)
  9. Austin Hooper
  10.  Kareem Hunt
  11.  C.J. Uzomah
  12.  Reggie Bullock
  13.  Cody Parkey (make sure he’s starting)
  14.  Browns D
  15.  Giovani Bernard
  16.  Bengals D
  17.  John Ross III
  18.  Rashard Higgins
  19.  Auden Tate
  20.  Harrison Bryant

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo, ATL vs SF

DK ($5,600) FD ($8,400)

He is coming off of one of his best games as a starting quarterback and the Falcons defense shouldn’t cause issues. Atlanta is allowing a 100.3 passer rating this season, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Garoppolo is playing with solid receivers that will create separation. With the 49ers still trying to win the NFC West, they should be ready while the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. Even with a backup center for the remainder of the season, Garoppolo should still have a solid game.

Tom Brady, NE @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

This should be the bounce-back week for the Patriots offense in general as they travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns so don’t expect the huge total from Brady. However, he doesn’t turn the ball over often and is a cheaper option on the slate. The Bengals allow 64 percent of passes to be completed so expect Brady’s accuracy to increase from where it has been the previous month. Expect a nice rebound game against a team poised to have the first pick in the NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers, CHI vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

This game is completely different than when these two teams met to open up the season. The Chicago Bears are dealing with injuries across the defense with Roquan Smith being placed on IR as well as Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan potentially missing this game. Aaron Rodgers should dominate a depleted defense and this Bears team has given up at least 275 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last three games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.3 percent of his passes this season and only threw two interceptions so far. Expect Rodgers to continue playing well and get closer to locking up the NFC North.

Week 15 Quarterback GPP Plays

Jameis Winston, TB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Winston had a great statistical game passing the ball last week against the Indianapolis Colts without Mike Evans. Evans is currently doubtful for this matchup as of this writing. Tampa ranks second in passing yards per game and the Lions allow the third-most passing yards in the league. I do not see a situation where Detroit can stop Jameis, all they can do is hope he coughs up the football multiple times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,700)

Not sure if I am pro-Baker or anti-Arizona this week. Baker should feast against this Arizona defense that is the worst at passing defense. They allow the most yards per game, touchdowns and best passer rating in the league. Baker is completing under 60 percent of his passes this season but this should be the return to last year’s version of Mayfield with a soft opposing defense. The Browns somehow have a chance to still make the playoffs and need this win, so expect Baker to come out with a lot of emotion.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ CAR

DK ($ 7,000) FD ($8,100)

Carolina is still trying to find out their identity as the season is reaching its end. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league with the second-most sacks. However, Carolina has two of their DE on the injury report. Expect Wilson to have his usual game as the running game will set him up for some big plays.

Week 15 Quarterback Fades

Mitch Trubisky, CHI @ GB

DK ($,6000) FD ($7,500)

The Packers are a different team at home than they are on the road. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions on the year and Tribusky is prone to mistakes. The Packers are trying to lock up this division and defeating the Bears could eliminate Chicago from the playoffs. Expect the Green Bay defense to lock down Tribusky and turn him back into a pumpkin.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ NE

DK ($4,900) FD ($7,000)

Bill Belichick will shut down Andy Dalton, plain and simple. Dalton has had a solid couple games since being renamed the starting quarterback but that was against the Jets and Browns. The Patriot defense struggles against speedy teams and the Bengals do not have much speed. Expect this to get ugly early and potentially see Dalton pulled late.

Josh Allen, BUF @ PIT

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Buffalo has two of their offensive tackles on the injury report, which is a little concerning. Pittsburgh’s passing defense is one of the best in football with the most sacks, fifth-least passing yards, and 18 interceptions. Allen has been good this year but the Bills offense has stuttered at times this season and against an elite defense is prone to do so again in primetime.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

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Jimmy Garoppolo over 270.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards.

Atlanta is allowing 258.2 passing yards per game and this is the time for Garoppolo to sling the football. Atlanta stops the run well so look for a large number of passing attempts and Jimmy G should finish with 300+ yards. San Francisco is coming off their worst pass-defending games in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. However, the Falcons do not have nearly the amount of weapons that the Saints did. The 49ers also rank first in pass defense this season so Matt Ryan should easily hit the under.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 13 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

Sam Darnold has been on a roll the past three weeks throwing just one interception. He has not faced the stiffest of competitions with the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders in that span. The offense is clicking and facing another weak opponent in Cincinnati. Going up against a Bengals team that The Bengals allow 251 yards per game and are in a position to lose this game to secure the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Expect a big day at a great price for Darnold.

Jared Goff, LAR @ ARI

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,900)

This is the game where Goff shuts the critics up because he has to. People are now asking the question if he was worth the $110 million guaranteed money and coming off a bad game on Monday night. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the perfect remedy for this Rams offense. Goff is completing 62% of his passes this season and the Arizona Cardinals allow 297.5 yards a game through the pass. The team also allows the most passing touchdowns, passing first downs and quarterback ratings in the league. This is the perfect opportunity for Goff to correct a lot of his mistakes made in the past month.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ IND

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,300)

This might come as a shocker but Ryan Tannehill has the second-highest completion percentage this season with 72.1%. The only concern is his yards per game are just over 200, but the Colts give up 34 passing attempts a game and allow 235 passing yards a game. On a shorter slate due to the Thanksgiving games, there might be value going outside the norm for the quarterback position.

Week 13 Quarterback GPP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ NYG

DK ($6,500) FD ($8,100)

After getting humiliated against the Baltimore Ravens last week on a national level, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing in New York. He doesn’t turn the ball over as he has thrown just two interceptions. Rodgers has weapons and a running game to mix in some play-action passes. This Giants defense is not great against the passing attack either. The Giants allowed 260 yards per game and has given 18 touchdowns.

Carson Wentz, PHI @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,300)

Carson Wentz has looked like he has taken a step back lately but the injuries to skill position players for the Eagles seem to continue. As of this writing, Zach Ertz missed practice with a hamstring injury and Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey were limited. If Wentz has two of the three then he should be great. The Dolphins do not pose much of threat defensively to stop a passing attack that the Eagles can have even without big-name targets. Miami doesn’t apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks as they recorded just 14 sacks so far. They also give up a quarterback rating of 106.8 which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. Expect a nice bounce-back performance from Wentz.

Nick Foles, JAX vs TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,500)

Nick Foles has looked like the quarterback the Jags were expecting after returning from injury. In the two games back, he has 47 and 48 attempts so expect the gameplan to continue to be throwing the football. The Bucs are one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL so this matchup hugely favors Foles. Tampa allows 290 yards a game through the air and is susceptible to huge plays as they have given up 10 throws of at least 40 yards. Foles should be a high-demand player in a lot of lineups.

Week 13 Quarterback Fades

Tom Brady, NE @ HOU

DK ($6,100) FD ($8,200)

If you look at the numbers of Tom Brady, it makes you shake your head. He has the same completion percentage (62.2) as Mitchell Tribusky and a QBR of 55.8, meaning he is slightly above average this season. In his last four games, Brady threw for 237.5 yards a game and just four touchdowns. The offense isn’t counting on him to play a big role. Both the Texans and Patriots run the ball 27.5 times a game so expect the time of possessions to be inflated which could keep Brady on the sidelines.

Philip Rivers, LAC @ DEN

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Philip Rivers has not been completing passes at a high percentage lately as in the last two weeks, he has completed just 54.2%. Going up against the Denver Broncos defense is no easy order for him. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest passing yards at 207.5 yards a game. They also allow the fourth-fewest passing first downs so moving the chains is going to be difficult as well. Expect another struggling effort for Rivers as his upside isn’t great in this matchup.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ PIT

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,600)

This has the making of an ugly performance for Baker as it seems a lot will be going on. This is the Steelers first time to “get even” with the Browns since the brawl a few weeks ago. Nothing like that should happen but the Steelers will be playing with extra motivation. OBJ is questionable at the time of this writing and a limited team could struggle in this environment. Baker struggles in both road games and the fourth quarter so don’t expect much out of him in this game.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

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Aaron Rodgers over 277.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones over 241.5 passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers should easily eclipse this with the reasons I mentioned in his section above. Daniel Jones has the big arm and Green Bay allows 238 yards of passing a game so expecting Danny Dimes to do slightly better isn’t that much of a difficult decision.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 12 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,200)

Russell Wilson is dominating so far this season and is one of the MVP favorites. Wilson is averaging 274 yards through the air and Philadelphia is one of the middle-area passing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary is full of question marks and Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (23) and tied for the lowest amount of interceptions by a starting quarterback (2). The Eagles are great against the run so expect Wilson to have an increased amount of attempts and continue dominating opposing defenses.

Kyle Allen, CAR @ NO

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,600)

Coming off of his worst game as a professional, Kyle Allen is looking for retribution. He already has a solid performance against the Saints from 2018. The Saints this season have been vulnerable to deep passes as they have given up eight passes of 40+ yards. Expect around 285 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Allen with the threat of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield taking up most of the defensive attention.

Jeff Driskel, DET @ WAS

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Jeff Driskel has played great in his two games this season against Chicago and Dallas. Going up against a subpar defense, Driskel should be the quarterback you target the most. Washington allows opposing quarterbacks 71.4 percent of passes, which leads the NFL. They also struggle to get to the quarterback as they are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks.

Week 12 Quarterback GPP Plays

Baker Mayfield, MIA vs CLE

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,500)

Baker Mayfield should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins. He has been heating up since Week 8. The Dolphins have just 13 sacks this season and have given up 23 passing touchdowns so far this season. Expect Mayfield to have upper-20s in completions with a lot of yardage. This should be the game that Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry both have great games, which makes Baker even more intriguing.

Drew Brees, NO @ CAR

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,500)

In the three games since returning from his injury, Brees is averaging 296 yards with six touchdowns. The Carolina Panthers are a middle-tier passing defense ranking in the low-teens in important statistical categories. With the weapons that Drew Brees has at his disposal, expect another huge statistical game with 30-plus completions.

Matt Ryan, TB vs ATL

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,900)

Ryan is averaging 27 completions and 296 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s passing defense isn’t good either as they give up the third-most completions and the second-most yards per game at 290.9. His 7.6 yards per attempt is also a huge reason why he should be in your lineup. The passing game of Atlanta with the subpar passing defense of Tampa has all the stars aligning for Matty Ice.

Week 12 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, DEN vs BUF

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,800)

Josh Allen isn’t a productive quarterback so far this season, with a 60.3 completion percentage. That ranks him tied for 42nd of all quarterbacks to have a pass attempt this season. Being behind Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Mitchell Triubisky is not a good sign of accuracy. The Denver Broncos allows the fifth-fewest passing yards at 210 yards per game. He can have a decent game but nothing special, especially for the price Allen is demanding. He doesn’t turn the ball over but isn’t accurate enough to be on your DFS team.

Mitchell Trubisky, NYG vs CHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($7,000)

Trubisky’s price is low enough where I feel he could be a value option but my head is saying no chance. His season-high is 253 yards, which is pedestrian in today’s NFL. The New York Giants are coming off their bye week and the Bears will look to run the ball often as they run 40 percent of their plays. Too much of a risk to take Trubisky on this slate.

Tom Brady, DAL vs NE

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,700)

Tom Brady is not having a great year, especially by his own standards. He has not reached 300 yards passing since Week 6. He looked lost at times against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Dallas Cowboys have a better defense. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett look as if they will be ready for the game on Sunday, which limits how well he can do without many threats.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

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Matt Ryan over 304.5 yards and Jameis Winston under 300.5 yards

Matt Ryan is averaging 296 yards per game and the Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL. Jameis Winston is coming off an ankle sprain and the Atlanta Falcons give up 107 yards on the ground. It’s difficult to see Tampa not run the ball, especially with how they average 31 minutes on offense a game.

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Welcome to my video that will be released every Thursday. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for Thursday night football. So who is ready for some Week 11 Thursday night football action between the Browns and Steelers? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Thursday night Showdown Slate.

https://youtu.be/4Bn8peNh7CQ

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Thursday Night Football Value and Punt Plays

The only punt plays that DraftKings is allowing here are with the Browns’ tight ends: Demetrius Harris ($4,200), and Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,600). The matchup is fine with the Pittsburgh Steelers allowing the ninth most fantasy points to the TE position. The other punt plays (go figure) include each team’s kicker: Austin Seibert ($3,800) and Chris Boswell ($4,000). This game projects to be low-scoring so the kickers will be featured in many winning GPP lineups. Cleveland over the past three weeks has averaged 2.7 field goal attempts per game. Austin Seibert has made eight field goals over the past three weeks. The Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has also been good lately. He has scored the fourth-most fantasy points at the position over the past three weeks. Cleveland at home as allowed 2.2 field goal attempts per game this season. 

From points per game basis, the Steelers DST ($5,200) is easily the best value on the slate. They are averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game compared to quarterback Mason Rudolph ($8,400) who is averaging 13.6.

Favorite Stacks

Vegas was right to back the Browns last week favoring that home even against a 6-2 Bills team, so I am going back to the Browns here recommending a Cleveland stack as 2.5 favorites at home. Building around my core players in Baker Mayfield ($9,000), Nick Chubb ($10,600), and Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,200). On this slate, in particular, the defenses figure to be extremely popular and they should be. So I especially like stacking Chubb with the Browns DST ($4,600).

Week 11 Thursday Night Football Contrarian Plays

You do not have to play a quarterback in some of your rosters. It would not surprise me at all to see both QBs score under 15 fantasy points considering on average they both are scoring per game below that threshold.

Going heavier on the cheaper running backs on each team with Jaylen Samuels ($8,800) and Kareem Hunt ($5,800) who are arguably better in PPR formats from a ceiling projection. Both are more likely to see more receptions than their running back counterparts.

Fading James Conner ($10,800) at his price tag could be a nice contrarian play. Coming off another injury and looking at Conner’s game logs he only has two games this year where he has averaged more than four yards per carry (Bengals and Dolphins). Browns are allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season. Cleveland’s run defense is slightly better at home.

Receivers in the captain spot are always usually the way to go, but are often overlooked. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,600) could be in line for a nice outing with his cornerback matchup versus T.J. Carrie. Carrie has taken over as the primary slot defensive back in Cleveland after the release of Jermaine Whitehead. He has allowed 1.79 yards per snap which is fourth-worst in the NFL. Carrie is by far the worst cornerback on the Browns. The two best performances from receivers versus the Browns this season were Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman who both scored two touchdowns and had double-digit targets.

Image via Erik Drost

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The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast, co-hosted by Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis, looks at the best quarterback plays of Week 6 along with a look at the Waiver Wire.

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PODCAST: Brandon and Antonio look at the best QB options for Week 6.

The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast answers why Matt Ryan a better Cash Game Play than either Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson and how the Eagles-Vikings game can be fool’s gold for both Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.

Seriously, Josh Rosen has Week 6 Fantasy value. Why it might be time to stop buying into Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense. The podcast concludes with a look at the top players available on the Week 6 Waiver Wire.

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This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

PODCAST: The King and DFS Pro Dan break down the MNF Showdown field

Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers

O/U: 47.5 (SFO -5)

NFL DFS: Cleveland Browns

The Browns head to San Francisco to take on the second best defense in the NFL through four games this season.They have sputtered on offense for the most part outside of their prime time game against the lowly Jets and a struggling Ravens defense. The Browns have an offensive DVOA of -8.5% (below league average), and a defensive DVOA of -9.1% (above league average). Overall they rank 14th in the league with a 5.6% DVOA. With Cleveland’s passing game ranking 25th in terms of DVOA and SFO’s defense ranking second, I can see this creating a run funnel in a game where both teams try to control the clock by running the football. If San Francisco is able to pull ahead and Cleveland is forced to abandon the run, Baker and Company could be in for a very long Monday Night.

NFL DFS: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are coming fresh off of a bye week after starting the season out 3-0. Through those first three weeks, the 49er’s have the second best defense in the league per their -35.9% DVOA (35.9% better than league average), second only to the Patriots. Their pass rush has been nothing short of amazing, and even though they don’t have an elite secondary, the defensive line is so good it makes those guys look like studs. I also expect a run funnel effect for the 49ers as well. Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled in passing schemes and Cleveland ranks in the top 10 in terms of passing yards allowed per game (215). San Francisco has a very crowded back-field with Tevin Coleman back in the lineup, but I still think Matt Breida should see a bulk of the work, followed by Raheem Mostert.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Nick Chubb ($15,300), Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,700) Matt Breida ($10,200), Jarvis Landry ($10,800), Deebo Samuel ($9,900), Odell Beckham Jr. ($13,500).

NFL DFS Flex:

49ers DST ($4,600), Raheem Mostert ($5,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($10,400), Robbie Gould (3,800), Austin Seibert ($3,600), George Kittle ($9,000), Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,800), Dante Pettis ($3400)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Nick Chubb ($15,000), Odell Beckham Jr. ($13,500) Jimmy Garoppolo ($14,000), Jarvis Landry ($12,000).

NFL DFS Flex:

(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Matt Breida ($11,500), George Kittle ($11,000), Raheem Mostert ($10,000), Deebo Samuel ($8,000), Dante Pettis ($6,000), Robbie Gould ($9,500).

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