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Austin Meadows

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 08/13

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Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000!

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Brandon Lowe/Austin Meadows vs. Michael Pineda

Pineda is someone that has very clear splits. Against righties he’s really able to limit power because he induces a whole lot of ground balls. Against lefties it’s a whole different story. His fly ball rate and hard hit rate both jump to 42%. Lefties have a .243 ISO and .336 wOBA against him this year. Tonight he’s going to have his hands full with a lineup full of lefties.

There are two guys on the Rays that should go yard tonight, Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows. If we look at pitch mix both of these guys are going to see a heavy amount of low 90’s fastballs. Let’s start with Austin Meadows. He has a near .700 ISO against this pitch from righties over the past few years. Lowe, while not as exaggerated as Meadows, has a .250 ISO with an average distance of 322 feet. Both guys stand a great chance to hit a long one tonight. Confidence Level – High

Jose Ramirez/Franmil Reyes vs. Tyler Alexander

My next targets bring us to Detroit with the Cleveland Indians facing off against Tyler Alexander. Alexander is another guy that has very clear splits. He’s actually pretty dominant against lefties with just a .241 wOBA against them this year.

Righties are a whole different story. Batters from the right side have a .354 wOBA and .214 ISO against him this year. They hit the ball significantly harder against him. Alexander’s pitch of choice to righties is his cutter. This is a pitch that Ramirez absolutely destroys from lefties.

Over the last few years Ramirez has a .424 ISO with an average distance of 337 feet to this pitch type. Reyes is no slouch against this pitch either. He has an average exit velocity of 96 mph and an average distance of 311 feet. Confidence Level – High

Bryce Harper vs. Tyler Mahle

It’s going to be hot in Philly tonight. When it’s hot in Citizens the ball go far. And the ball it will be traveling far tonight off the bat of Bryce Harper. On the year Harper has a .345 ISO and .439 wOBA against righties. He’s making an extremely strong case for MVP and if I had to guess, he’s the front runner right now.

He’s going to be seeing a mid 90’s fastball from Mahle tonight and it’s a pitch he should not have any issues with. He owns a .333 ISO and .463 wOBA against this type of pitcher over the least several years. While Mahle isn’t a bad pitcher he is prone to the home run ball with 6 in his last 28 innings of work. Tonight, Harper will make it 7 as he adds to Mahle’s monthly total. Confidence Level – Highish

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of the 5 batters I just mentioned, with Ramirez, Meadows, and Harper my favorite of the bunch.

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday, August 02

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a nice sized 7 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

Main Slate Breakdown

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian over the next 2 weeks when I’m not writing Aces and Bases as he takes a much needed vacation. Today’s slate will leave a lot to desired from a pitching standpoint. The most expensive pitcher on tonight’s slate is Tylor Megill. Nothing against Megill as he’s been quite good since his call up, but he shouldn’t be the most expensive pitcher on a slate (at least yet).

There are really only 3 pitchers tonight that will have my interest. Tylor Megill ($9.6k), Michael Wacha ($8.4k), and Josiah Gray ($7.6k). As the day goes on I will let ownership dictate who I use. These 3 pitchers provide 2 things I’m looking for on a slate like this. Upside and safety.

First let’s look at Megill. He’s facing off against a very watered down lineup that won’t hit for much power. While the Marlins do get Chisholm back, he’s someone that’s striking out more than 29% of the time to righties this year. Megill’s price is a little more than I’d like to pay for him, but the match up today definitely gives him room for upside. The next two guys are the wild cards for me.

How do you get the Nationals to send you 2 of their best players? You send them one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Josiah Gray. Gray has looked pretty good so far in the Majors with 13 K’s through 8 IP. That’s nearly 15 K/9. He’s someone that’s going to give us the most K potential of any arm on the slate as long as he can limit the walks.

The last guy I’m interested in is Wacha. Over the last 30 days Wacha has a 27% K rate and gets a great match up against a Mariners team that couldn’t put up much of a fight against the worst pitcher in baseball, Folty. If Wacha comes in at chalk (and it’s certainly possible on a slate like this) I’ll side with Gray and Megill.

The main area of offense for me tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers. We get to attack newly acquired Bryce Wilson. While Wilson isn’t very good to either side of the plate, we really want to attack him with batters from the left side of the plate. His ISO jumps to .254 from just .130 and his K rate is just 11%.

Newly acquired Eduardo Escobar ($5.4K) is my favorite of the bunch as he has the most power with an ISO of .231 against righties this season. The other keys here will be Kolten Wong ($4.4k) at the top and Omar Narvaez ($4.5k).

The one guy in this lineup that will open us up for a ton of salary relief is Jackie Bradley Jr. ($2.4k). Look, this season has been brutal for Bradley as he’s batting just .175 with an OPS of .540. Some of it has been bad luck though as he an extremely low BABIP of .234. By far the lowest of his career.

The team that I’m looking at tonight to pair with the Brewers is a Brian special, the Tampa Bay Rays. They get to take on Chris Flexen. Flexen has flashed some upside this season, but the match up for him tonight is going to be tough and his performance recently has been trending down. His last outing was by far his worst of the year, giving up 7 ER vs. the Houston Astros.

The two building blocks I’ll use from the Rays are Austin Meadows ($4.5k) and Ji-Man Choi ($4.4k). Both guys have absolutely crushed right handed hitting this year with ISO’s of .339 and .284 respectively. The two of them are extremely underpriced considering the match up and their upside.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

This is going to be a tricky, but fun slate. We’ve had some questionable pitching slates over the past month but this one may take the cake. We are now a few days separated from the trading deadline and lineups are getting close to set with the new guys. Tonight I’ll be mixing and matching the Brewers with Rays as both teams line up great with each other.

I don’t think I’ll stray too far from my core of Megill, Wacha, and Gray. Another area to look at tonight will be the Baltimore Orioles. Andrew Heaney is making his Yankees debut and if he becomes chalky, I’ll be sure to sprinkle in some O’s (Mancini being the main target). O’s have been very good vs. lefties this year and can certainly do some damage vs. Heaney.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Picks and Pivots for Saturday – 07/24

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a really nice sized 10 game main slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.

It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. My goal today will be to layout a path to get at least one high level ace and a couple of offenses that are in great spots to crush tonight.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

Main Slate Breakdown

With tonight’s slate we have a couple of the top strike out pitchers in the league in Carlos Rodon ($10.1k) and Corbin Burnes ($10.6k). Both guys have been on fire of late with K rates 30% over the past month. Of the pitchers going tonight Rodon ranks first while Burnes ranks fourth. Wait, that means there are 2 other guys sandwiched in between them that also have a 30% K rate?

Yes, and one of them is someone I’m going to pair with either Rodon or Burnes. That guy is Logan Gilbert ($7.8k). In his last 20 innings of work Gilbert has been just brilliant. He’s sporting a 3.13 xFIP to go with a 34% K rate. He’s also really been able to limit his hard contact as his hard contact over the last month is a minuscule 18%. In Gilbert you are getting an ace level pitcher at an extreme discount.

I will be locking in Gilbert as my SP2 tonight and pairing him with either Rodon or Burnes. My lean right now is to go with a Rodon/Gilbert pairing as it leaves us with $4k to spend on our batters. Now that pitching is out of the way, let’s see where we can find some bats.

The first place I plan on looking to for offense is sure to make Brian happy. The Rays get a great match-up tonight against a pitcher that has really been struggling. In his last 3 games JC Mejia has given up 16 runs and 4 homers. I’m sure at some point Mejia will turn into a good pitcher and he even showed flashes of it in his last outing with 8 K’s, but right now he’s just a pitcher getting overwhelmed at the Major League level.

Mejia is a sinker ball pitcher which leads to a high number of ground balls. It’s been getting hit really hard though this year. Batters have a 52% hard hit rate and a .651 slugging % against his most used pitch. If we look at splits Mejia gives up a significantly higher ISO to lefties at .224.

Rays have the potential to throw out 5-6 lefties tonight which should signal doom for Mejia. My main target here is Austin Meadows ($4.2k) who has a .627 slugging % against sinkers this year. Brandon Lowe ($4.8k) and Ji-Man Choi ($4.1k) are also guys that have had success against sinkers with hard hit rates near or greater than 50% and wOBA’s close .400. Love the spot for the Rays tonight.

The other team that really stands out the most to me right now are the San Francisco Giants. They get a dream match-up tonight against a pitcher that has struggled all year and it’s only gotten worse of late.

Over the past month Will Crowe has been dreadful. He has a 5.85 xFIP that is pretty close to being in line with his ERA of 5.49 so we know what we’re getting is a pretty bad pitcher. During that same time period is he’s also given up 5 homers. He’s just giving up way too much hard contact and way too many fly balls.

His hard hit rate on the year is sitting at 41%. If you are giving up hard hits 40% of the time while only having a 20% K rate, you have almost no path to being a successful pitcher. In looking at his splits, he’s been pretty bad to both sides of the plate as the ISO is north of .200.

He gives up a slightly higher amount of fly balls to lefties so I’ll want to make sure I cram in a dirt cheap LaMonte Wade ($2.8k) who will most likely be leading off.

Two other guys that will be keys to my lineup are Yastrzemski ($3.8k) and Dickerson ($2.7k). Both guys are cheap and profile extremely well against the fastball and changeup mix they’ll see from Crowe. Other guys in this lineup that are cheap that will give you flexibility are Wilmer Flores ($3.8k) and Thario Estrada ($3.3k).

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

The Rays and Giants fit very well together tonight and they will be where my focus on offense will be. The Giants cheap pieces will help to grab both the Rays expensive and productive pieces but will also help to get one of the top pitchers. I like the idea tonight of pairing both Rodon and Gilbert together.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports . Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 07/22

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have another nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

The day ends in Y so it means we have another dicey pitching slate. Feel like it’s been a month since we’ve had a slew of solid pitching to work with. Pitching looks tough tonight but we have some lineups in great spots.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Sean Manaea ($9.1k) vs. Seattle Mariners – Manaea gets to take on a Mariners lineup today that has really struggled against left handed pitching this year. On the year they have a near 27% K rate with limited power. If we look at Manaea we can see that he’s been pretty good of late, outside of a few long balls.

Over the last month he’s improvement up on a handful of metrics compared to the whole season. His K rate is up to 27% vs. 24% for the year and his xFIP is 3.26 vs. 3.85. The Mariners are coming back from Coors and I’m hoping for a post Coors hangover.

Kent Maeda ($8.1k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Of all the pitchers throwing tonight no pitcher has a higher K rate over the past 30 days than Maeda. Outside of one start vs. the high powered White Sox offense Maeda has been really good since his return from the IL.

He has 4 games of more than 7 K’s. Coming out of the All Star break the Angels haven’t been putting up much offensively. In 157 at bats they have just 7 barrels to go with a 26% K rate. Look for Maeda to keep the ball rolling with another solid outing tonight.

Walker Buehler ($10.5k) vs. San Francisco Giants – . I’m not overly in love with the match-up tonight but our options are very limited. The projected lineup has just a 20% K rate and a .208 ISO vs. righties. With keeping all that in mind, Buehler has been on a nice roll.

He’s reached 49 FD points in three of his last 4 outings. From a pure talent stand point, he’s probably the top arm tonight. I’m sticking with either Manaea or Maeda tonight, but Buehler will give you the highest ceiling potential tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cal Quantrill – Quantrill will have his hands full tonight with a very solid Rays lineup. Let’s first look at what Quantrill has been doing of late. Over the past 30 days he’s giving up just a ton of hard contact at nearly 41%. He’s given up 9 barrels in 24 innings.

That’s not a good pace. Add in the fact that his swinging strike rate is sitting at just 7.3% over that time period we can see here that we have a pitcher that just hasn’t figured out how to get the ball past big leaguers yet.

If we dive into splits we can see lefties are a big weakness for him. His fly ball rate jumps from 25% vs. righties to 45% vs. lefties. That’s’ a pretty significant jump. Quantrill is going to face a lineup tonight that potentially has 7 guys batting from the left side. This is what nightmares are made of.

Brian’s favorite player tonight will be my building block. Austin Meadows ($2.9k) should have a field day tonight. Quantrill has been throwing his sinker more than 35% of the time lefties. Meadows has a .256 ISO with an average distance of 343 feet vs. this pitch over the past few years. If he’s in the lineup Walls ($2.1k) has also had success against this pitch. All Rays, especially the lefties, should be in play tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs. Matt Moore – Moore hasn’t yet had a blow up game in a while. It’s coming folks. The metrics say it’s coming. My hope is that it comes tonight vs. Braves. Here’s why I think Moore regresses tonight.

In the last month he has a swinging strike rate of just 9.9% but he has a 44% fly ball rate and a 37% hard hit rate. He’s not missing bats and he’s giving up a ton a of hard hit fly balls. He also has an 85% LOB%. Leaving that many people on every game is just not sustainable.

The majority of the damage against him comes from the right side of the plate. He has a .290 ISO against righties with 43% fly ball rate and a 47% hard hit rate. Braves will more than likely throw out 5 right handed hitters tonight.

The three guys I’m most focused on here are Dansby Swanson ($3.3k), Albies ($3.6k), and Riley ($3k). All have ISO’s great then .200 this year to lefties and should be able to handle the 91 mph fastball coming from Moore. .

Minnesota Twins vs. Andrew Heaney – This is going to be a really tough match-up for Heaney tonight. His biggest weakness is righties and he’s going to face a ton of them tonight. And the righties he’s going to be facing all hit for power.

Over the last month Heaney has really struggled with the long ball. He’s given up 6 homers in just 18 innings of work. We are in a spot tonight where we can really chase the long ball.

Looking at his splits we can see that he gives up way more fly balls to righties at 40% and way more hard contact at 50%. Garver ($2.4k), Cruz ($3.7k), and Donaldson ($3.1k) are going to be keys here as they hit for a lot of power vs. lefties. Garver and Donaldson profile the best and will be locks for me in this stack.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Like most nights recently, picking the right stack tonight will be key. The three offense I layed out here have the best opportunity to do the most damage. Rays and Twins fit very well together.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 07/18

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller than usual 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For the first time since baseball resumed from the All Star break there shouldn’t be any concerns with weather outside of a few showers in Atlanta.

We have a trio of aces of going today and I probably won’t want to stray too far from them.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Zack Wheeler ($11k) vs. Miami Marlins – Wheeler hasn’t pitched much over the past 11 days as he only faced 1 batter in the All Star Game. This should mean he has a fresh and rested arm going into today’s matchup vs. the Marlins. He’s facing a Marlins team that just isn’t very good.

Over the past 30 days they have the second highest K rate in the majors at nearly 27%. If Vinny Velasquez and the Phillies bullpen were able to quiet this lineup last night, I don’t see any reason why Wheeler won’t be able to do the same.

He faced this team a couple of months ago and had one of his best outings of the year with 10 K’s thru 7 innings pitched. Look for Wheeler to have a dominant game tonight.

Corbin Burnes ($11.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – After a little bit of a rough stretch in mid-June Burnes has recently re-found his touch with 3 very solid outings in a row.

While his K rate over the past 30 days is down a bit form his season long number (26% vs. 38%) he’s facing a Reds team that has been striking out quite a bit over the past 30 days. Their K rate in the last month is nearly 26% with limited power numbers. I like Burnes to be one of the top scoring pitchers at the end of the day.

Carlos Rodon ($10.6k) vs. Houston Astros – This won’t be an easy task for Rodon today. The Astros have been one of the best teams in the league this year against lefties. That said, Rodon has proven time and time again this year that he’s up to the task when facing tough lineups.

He hasn’t had a game in the last 2 months where he hasn’t struck out at least 8 batters, with one of those games coming against this same Astros team. I normally don’t make it a habit of using a pitcher against the Astros but with Rodon I’m going to make the exception today.

With high priced lineups like the Blue Jays and Dodgers being off the slate and the Padres facing Scherzer today I don’t really see the need to stray from the top echelon of pitchers this afternoon. There will be enough value in the lineups we choose to allow us to comfortably fit the aces.

MLB DFS: The Bats

San Francisco Giants vs. Wade LeBlanc – If we look at last night’s box score we’ll see a team that struggled to put up any offense against a lefty. However, if we look a bit deeper we’ll see that the Giants just couldn’t find any holes last night. They had an insanely low BABIP of just .158 with just 1 strike out against Kim.

Thankfully for us they get a lefty again today and one who’s not nearly as good as Kim. Over the past 30 days LeBlanc is giving up a ton of hard contact at more than 38% with limited swing and miss stuff. Leblanc is going to throw a ton of cutters and sinkers to batters today.

The guys I want a piece of today are going Austin Slater ($2.3k), Yastrzemski ($3.3k), Ruff ($2.9k), and Flores ($2.5k). All have shown strong power numbers vs. this pitch selection from lefties.

Detroit Tigers vs. J.A.Happ – This didn’t work out too well a week and a half ago when Happ threw his best out of the year against this same Tigers team. I still the love the match-up here and I still think that Happ is a gas can. I’m going to go right back and try to attack him.

On the year he’s giving up a 40% hard hit rate with a 44% fly ball rate. That many fly balls and that many hard hits are just asking for trouble. The Tigers will throw out a lineup that will most likely be all right handed today. Against righties Happ is giving up a 44% fly ball rate and 43% hard hit rate which adds up to a .272 ISO against.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally and that’s what happened last outing. Give me all the Grossman ($3.2k), Schoop ($3.2k), and Haase ($2.9k) today. All three have crushed left handed pitching this year. Haase did leave the game early yesterday so we’ll need to monitor his status, but he tried staying in the game so I think he’s back in there today.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Drew Smyly – Smyly’s ERA over the past 30 days is just 1.61. Why are we attacking a pitcher with such a small ERA? I’ll tell you why. He’s been getting extremely lucky and the Rays are just the team to end his string of luck.

There’s a lot of regression in that ERA. He’s stranded nearly 90% of the batters he’s left on over the last month. He has just a 10% swinging strike rate, a 35% hard hit rate, and a 43% fly ball rate. At some point his luck is going to run out. Brian’s Rays are going to the be the team that ends it.

The guy I love the most today is Austin Meadows ($3.2k) with some lefty on lefty crime. On the year Smyly is actually giving up a much higher ISO to lefties than righties, .303 vs. .194. Other guys I really like here are Lowe ($3.2k) and Zunino ($2.5k). All line up really well vs. Smyly’s mix of fastballs and curveballs as their ISO’s are north of .200 against these pitches.

I also do love attacking Harvey with the Royals today. Harvey is at the tail end of this experiment with Orioles. Royals should be able to take advantage of both Harvey and the O’s bullpen today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This Sunday funday should be a fun one with some top level arms going against teams that have been striking out at a healthy pace and some gas cans we can attack.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/19 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($10,200)

I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.

Best GPP Value: Patrick Sandoval ($7,800)

Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.

Contrarian GPP Play: Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,600)

Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels at DET RHP Wily Peralta

The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI RHP Matt Peacock

We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/8 DFS MLB Showdown Picks: One Night in Tampa Bay

Brandon C. Williams 6 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Thanks to Charlie Morton and a few well-hung pitches from Zack Greinke, there is a 10/8 DFS MLB Showdown to play (HOU at TB, 7:07 PM Eastern). It means Showdown, so let’s put five on it.

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10/8 DFS Showdown

It’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

MVP (2X)

Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU (FD $9500, FD $14,700)

This ends tonight, so I’m going with someone capable of doing Big Man Work. Bregman has five hits in the first three games with a homer, double and a stolen base. His 44.7% hard contact rate in the regular season will pay off, as will Bregman’s 45.9% fly ball rate. My hunch is a quick knockout, with Bregman being a big reason why.

All-Star (1.5X)

Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU (FD $8000, DK, $13,800)

Alvarez averages 14.2 FanDuel points per game and did not exempt Rays pitching from his historic 87-game run, tagging them with .364/.500/1.000 with a pair of homers. He’s averaging 10.3 FD points in the first three games and will have a chance to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s gamble of using Diego Castillo as the opener. Alvarez’s .984 OPS on the road and 1.035 OPS when batting fifth makes him a foundation for my 10/8 DFS MLB Showdown plays.

Utility

Austin Meadows, OF, TB (FD $7000, DK $13,200)

He’s had games of 15.5 and 16.2 FanDuel points and gets the critical task of leading off against Justin Verlander, who comes in on short rest. Meadows is batting .214 in the ALDS, but he’s drawing walks (helping his .357 OBP) and two of his three hits are doubles. The .268 Isolated Power and .331 BABIP are solid calling cards. That he can steal bases (12) makes him appealing as well.

Bargain at the Bottom

Utility

Robinson Chirinos, C, HOU (FD $4500, DK $8100)

I’m willing to take a flier on Chirinos, who did hit .267/.421/600 with a homer in 15 at-bats versus Tampa Bay pitching. You’ll love him just as much if the Astros slot him in the eighth spot. Chirinos has a slash line of .280/.381/.506 (.887 OPS) with nine homers, 30 RBI and 32 runs scored.

Utility

Avisail Garcia, OF, TB (FD $6000, DK $10,800)

If there’s life beyond Tuesday for Tampa Bay, it will come from Garcia, who is a far more dominant slugger at home than on the road. Garcia had a .894 OPS with 13 of his 20 homers at The Trop. The once-promising power may not materialize, but Garcia did have a .341 BABIP in the regular season. He’s also generated a 40.1% hard contact rate, an encouraging number…provided he can make contact against Verlander.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/2 MLB DFS Showdown Picks

6 years ago

written by

Either the Rays or Athletics will be planning out fall/winter vacations by the end of Wednesday’s AL Wild Card Game.

The 10/2 MLB DFS Showdown will help you get your share of the long green.

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The Road to Victory in Oakland

Here’s how I’d play my lineup. In fact, it’s the same lineup I’ll post at FanDuel.

10/2 FanDuel Showdown Lineup

MVP (2X)

Matt Olson, 1B, OAK, $8,500 Salary

Olson has a track record against Rays starter Charlie Morton ($16,800). The slugger first sacker has four hits in 12 career at-bats versus Morton, including a homer along with drawing a pair of walks. Olson also has the momentum of a September that saw him produce a .938 OPS with nine homers, 23 RBI and 18 runs scored. I’m all-in on a hitter with a 50.3% hard contact rate.

All-Star (1.5X)

Austin Meadows, OF, TB, $9,500 Salary

More effective on the road, Meadows had a .966 OPS with 20 of his 33 homers coming outside Tampa Bay. Meadows also has a 42.9% fly ball rate that should play well with the wind projected toward right field. That also bodes well considering Meadows sports a 45.1% pull rate. He can easily be an MVP, yet Olson and his track record with Morton gives Olson the edge.

Power and the Glory

Utility

Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK, $7,000 Salary

Play the home field advantage with Laureano, who has a .904 OPS in Oakland. I also like that Laureano will provide the threat of a stolen base (13). He’s come a long, long way from the slow start in March/April along with putting together a 25.1% line drive rate on top of a 40% hard contact rate.

Laureano’s 25.6% strikeout rate is an obvious concern when facing a whiff machine like Morton, but in a Showdown scenario, all I’m counting on is one swing to change the complexion of the game.

Utility

Avisail Garcia, OF, TB, $6,000 Salary

Like Laureano, I’ll gamble on the power-speed combo of Garcia, who added 10 steals to go along with 20 homers. Garcia has hit the A’s well this season, coming into tonight with a .368 batting average and .425 OBP. The .455 slugging percentage is a mild disappointment, yet the ability to get on base consistently helps the cause for DFSers.

Garcia is a not a consistent fly ball hitter (31.6%), yet did boost his line drive rate from 17.4% in 2018 to 22.3% this season.

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Utility

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Rays, $4,000 Salary

Call this a calculated risk. There’s little to suggest Aguilar to be highly-used, but scenarios like this call for the unexpected bat to rise up and deliver. This is where Aguilar, who has a .714 OPS and managed just five hits in September (although two were homers).

Aguilar isn’t going to be cheated when he makes contact, bringing a 41.7% hard contact rate and a 41.7% medium contact rate.

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6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/23 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Monday Mayhem

Cora Baylis 6 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

For the final Monday of the regular season, we have an abbreviated five-game slate ahead of us. While that’s small, it should make for a fun schedule. What’s crazy about this time of the year are all of the wacky managerial decisions. Many pitchers are having pitch counts limited and many teams who are out of it are experimenting and it’s causing chaos for DFS players. With that in mind, we only have two great stacks, so, let’s get to our 9/23 DFS hitting picks and stacks of the day.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Clay Buchholz

While Baltimore may not be the prettiest team of the day, they’re easily my favorite stack. That’s one of the major reasons I like them though, as they should be low-owned. That paired with this matchup is a beautiful recipe. With the O’s squaring off with Clay Buchholz. The Toronto righty has been atrocious this season, pitching to a 7.16 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since his first start. That’s a nightmarish nine-game stretch and Baltimore was a major part of that, dropping seven runs and 10 hits on him in his most recent outing. Getting to use the Orioles is a huge salary saver too and these guys will be sprinkled into all of my lineups.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

While Chacin is only expected to go a handful of innings, we still love the Rays. Let’s begin with that starter, as Chacin is pitching to a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. Those dreadful numbers should get Tampa off to a nice start and then the bullpen should continue their big evening. In fact, the Red Sox bullpen is allowing 5.07 runs per game, ranking 20^th in MLB. That gives the Rays great matchup after great matchup and all of these guys are reasonably affordable too.

9/23 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

9/23 DFS Hitting Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2,500)

It was very tough to pick a catcher on this slate but Ramos is always a good option. What makes him intriguing today is the fact that he gets to face a lefty, with Ramos accumulating a .350 AVG, .424 OBP and .958 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. He actually has a .910 OPS against lefties dating all the way back to 2017 and he clearly sees the ball a lot better from that side. This happens to be a struggling lefty too, with Caleb Smith pitching to a 6.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his last eight starts.

9/23 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Ji-Man Choi, TB vs. BOS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

This is probably my favorite per-dollar play on the board. The reason for that is because Choi has been one of the best hitters in the league the last month, providing a .303 AVG, .417 OBP, .621 SLG and 1.038 OPS over his last 22 games. That’s really no surprise when you see his splits, with Choi generating a .373 OBP, .498 SLG and .871 OPS against right-handers since 2017. That’s why the Rays typically bat him leadoff or cleanup in these circumstances, only adding to his value in this superb matchup

9/23 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Starlin Castro, MIA at NYM

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,000)

This is one of the first times I’ve written up a Marlin all season but Castro has quietly had a nice year for them. Collecting 21 homers and 84 RBI for this lineup and nightmare ballpark is a testament to how good Castro has been and he’s simply way underpriced on these DFS sites. The thing that makes him enticing today is that he gets to face a lefty, with Castro providing a .325 AVG, .541 SLG and .895 OPS against them this season. We’re really not concerned about Steven Matz and his 4.54 FIP and 1.33 WHIP either.

9/23 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR vs. BAL

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Why is this dude priced so cheaply? He’s been one of the best hitters in the AL since putting on a show in the Home Run Derby and it’s just a matter of time before he’s one of the best hitters in our sport. Since July 19, Guerrero has a .325 AVG, .383 OBP, .515 SLG and .899 OPS. That’s the stud that we were waiting for and we have to love him against Dylan Bundy’s 4.89 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In 53 at-bats against this putrid pitching staff, Guerrero is hitting .472 en route to a .717 SLG and 1.217 OPS.

9/23 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Jonathan Villar, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,500)

Villar is easily my favorite play of our Orioles stack. He’s expected to hit leadoff against Buchholz and that alone puts him in play. His recent form is absolutely absurd too, with Villar posting a .327 AVG, .397 OBP, .578 SLG and .976 OPS over his last 53 games played. He also has 21 steals in that span and he’s simply one of the best power-speed guys in the league right now. Getting the platoon advantage against Buchholz is the icing on the cake, with Villar amassing a .357 OBP, .470 SLG and .827 OPS against righties while swiping 29 of his 38 steals this season.

9/23 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Juan Soto, WSH vs. PHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)

We provided a ton of value in the infield write-ups, so let’s give you guys some studs in the outfield. Soto is just that, as he’s one of the league leaders with a .401 OBP and .966 OPS. Those are amazing numbers from a 20-year-old and much of that damage has come recently. Over his last 50 games, Soto has a .415 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.082 OPS. That’s bad news for Zach Eflin, with Soto totaling a .414 OBP .602 SLG and 1.015 OPS against right-handers this season.

Austin Meadows, TB vs. BOS

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,400)

Meadows has truly broken out as one of the best OF’s in the AL and it appears we have a perennial All-Star for years to come. Any rookie with 32 homers and a .286 AVG is impressive but it’s also backed up by a .563 SLG and .921 OPS. He’s absolutely scorching right now too, accruing a .325 AVG, .394 OBP, .737 SLG and 1.131 OPS over his last 29 games played. Facing Chacin and this crappy bullpen is simply a bonus, with Meadows posting a .383 OBP, .582 SLG and .964 OPS against righties so far this year.

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ARI

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,300)

I really don’t want to stack against Alex Young with the way he’s pitching but Ozuna is a nice one-off. We’re still talking about a guy with a .282 AVG, .488 SLG and .832 OPS dating back to 2017 and he’s simply one of the best power bats in baseball. He’s always been better against southpaws despite his down numbers this year, posting a .288 AVG, .353 wOBA and .490 SLG against them for his career. Young is certainly a guy who could see some negative regression too, with the lefty’s 4.51 xFIP way off of his 3.27 ERA.

6 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

6 years ago 0 comments

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Austin Meadows

Home Run Blast

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Main Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

MLB DFS: The Bats

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($10,200)

Best GPP Value: Patrick Sandoval ($7,800)

Contrarian GPP Play: Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,600)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels at DET RHP Wily Peralta

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI RHP Matt Peacock

Contrarian Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

10/8 DFS Showdown

Bargain at the Bottom

The Road to Victory in Oakland

Power and the Glory

Baltimore Orioles vs. Clay Buchholz

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/23 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

9/23 DFS Hitting Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2,500)

9/23 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Ji-Man Choi, TB vs. BOS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

9/23 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Starlin Castro, MIA at NYM

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,000)

9/23 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR vs. BAL

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

9/23 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Jonathan Villar, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,500)

9/23 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Juan Soto, WSH vs. PHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)

Austin Meadows, TB vs. BOS

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,400)

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ARI

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,300)

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Additional options:

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