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Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

We at Win Daily Sports want to wish everyone a safe and happy memorial day weekend.  Today we have 2 separate slates, but this article will be focusing solely on the 6-game early slate of MLB DFS since that’s the larger slate.  For it being a smaller slate, this slate is packed with good pitching and good stacking.  There will be options on both ends of the aisle for us.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Nate Eovaldi vs. Detroit Tigers

When the Rangers picked up Jacob deGrom this offseason, the notion was that he’d be the ace of the pitching staff.  With how much time he’s already missed due to injury, it’s actually been Nate Eovaldi who’s been the true ace of this staff. He’s followed up a brilliant outing with a brilliant outing this season.  Over the last month, Eovaldi has had a .86 ERA and a 24% k rate. 

He’s been doing a phenomenal job of keeping the ball on the ground as evidenced by his 53% groundball rate.  Although the Tigers have shown at times that they can get to pitchers, I just don’t see it today vs. one of the best pitchers in the game this season.  Eovaldi should be able to put together another dominant outing today. 

Ryne Nelson vs. Colorado Rockies

After spending up on Eovaldi today, I’m going to spend down on my SP2.  That brings Ryne Nelson into play.  He’s coming off 2 straight solid outings.  1 vs. the lowly A’s and the other vs. a solid but disappointing Phillies lineup.  In each start, he had at least 17 DK points. 

Today he’ll get a tasty matchup vs. a Rockies team that is leaving the friendly confines of Coors and will no longer have the thin air to help them with their bats.  I’m looking for them to struggle today with going back on the road.  A pitcher at this price point is never safe, but he’s pitching better and gets a nice matchup today. 

Alex Wood vs. Milwaukee Brewers

This is a wild card pick for me tonight.  Alex Wood hasn’t pitched overly well this season, but he also hasn’t pitched much as he’s made just 6 starts.   This is more matchup based for me tonight.  The Brewers have been dreadful vs. lefties this season.  The projected lineup tonight has just a .293 wOBA and a .147 ISO vs. lefties.  They also have a 26% k rate. 

They’ve been attacked against lefties all season and tonight will be no different, even though it’s Alex Wood.  He’s far from safe, but there’s definitely some upside tonight with Alex Wood and his $6.3k salary.

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Karl Kaufmann

Karl Kaufmann has just 2 major league starts under his belt but each has been atrocious.  Through the 2 starts, he’s pitched to an ERA over 9 and an xFIP over 6.  He’s giving up a hard-hit rate of 63% and has a WHIP over 2.  Nearly every metric for him is extremely bad.  The only saving grace for him so far has been that he’s been able to keep the ball in the ballpark as he’s only allowed 1 dinger in his 8 innings of work. 

That probably changes today as he’ll face a really strong Diamondbacks lineup.  So far it’s been the righties that have been doing him in.  They have a wOBA over .500 and an ISO of .263.  That said, we don’t necessarily want to write off the lefties, they’ll 100% be in play.

Knowing how bad he’s been against righties, I’m going to target both Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel today.  Of the 2, Gurriel has been the better one against righties this season so I will make it a point to force him in there today.  Against righties this season, he has a .311 ISO and a wOBA of .380.  The saving grace for Walker here is that he lines up extremely well with Kaufmann. 

Kaufmann’s main pitch to righties is his sinker and he’s fared extremely well vs. righty sinkers since he’s broken into the league.  Gurriel also has strong numbers vs. sinkers.  Other bats I’ll look to get in here today will be Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll.  This lineup today has a ton of run potential.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Royals Bullpen

This is essentially going to be a bullpen game today for the Royals.  They’ll start out with Josh Staumont, then turn the ball over to Mike Mayers for a few innings, and then we’ll get the Royals bullpen for a handful of innings.  The Royals bullpen has been really bad this season and over the last couple of weeks. 

Over the last couple of weeks, this bullpen has an xFIP of 5.12 and an ERA over 4.  That 5.12 is the second-worst number of any bullpen over the last couple of weeks.  Although the Cardinals have been disappointing this season, they have started to right the ship a bit and have started to play some better baseball, at least offensively. 

The main guys I’m looking at with this stack today will be Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbar, and Brendan Donovan.  These are really the 3 guys in this lineup hitting the ball the best right now.  Nootbar is 9 for his last 29 and has driven in 6 runs over the last week.  The World Baseball Classic winner has put together a decent season so far, with a .270 AVG and a .383 OBP. 

Donovan is also coming off a solid week, with 6 runs scored and a 1.184 OPS.  He’s also extremely cheap today at just $3k.  The spend-up will be Goldy.  His numbers this season haven’t quite been where we’ve been used to them, but he’s still putting together a nice campaign.  Other bats I like here will be Nolan Gorman and Tommy Edman. 

I’m off Arenado right now.  He’s been lost at the plate, for the most part, this season.  That said, he did have 2 hits yesterday, including a double.  Could that be the spark plug for him?  We’ll have to wait and see.

Other stacks I like today are the Royals vs. Waino and Rangers vs. Boyd.  With the Royals, a complete game stack is 100% in play.  Waino has been hot trash this season and the Royals lineup has been hitting.  They could absolutely get to the aging veteran today. 

MLB DFS Summary

We have day baseball on this Memorial Day.  Make sure to stay safe and make some money today!

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

With more and more teams opting for 6:40 start times, the main slate has started to become smaller and smaller.  Tonight’s main slate is just 8-games, but that makes for a much more manageable slate of MLB DFS.  We have Coors and we also have Corbin on the hill vs. a very good Angels lineup.  We also have a repeat of the NL Wild Card round from last year the Padres making their way to Citi Field.  This is shaping up to be a fun slate of MLB DFS.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Julio Urias vs. San Francisco Giants

So far to start the year, the Giants have really struggled vs. lefties.  Through their first 60 AB vs. lefties, they’ve hit just .153 with just 1 homer.  They also have a 40% strike-out rate and just a .213 wOBA.  This is an attackable team right now vs. lefties and we’ll attack them with one of the best lefties in the game in Julio Urias. 

Urias has had a solid start to the season.  He’s sporting a nearly 28% k rate and an xFIP of just 2.72.  When hitters have put the ball in play, he’s done an excellent job of limiting the damage by getting them to put the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his nearly 52% groundball rate.  He should be able to dominate this Giants lineup tonight. 

Luis Castillo vs. Chicago Cubs

Luis Castillo has started out the season with some impressive numbers.  Through his first 2 starts of the season, Castillo is sporting a 30% K rate, while having an xFIP just over 3.  He’s still yet to give up an ER and I doubt that continues too much longer, but with a date with the Chicago Cubs, an extension of his innings scoreless streak very well could continue tonight.

While the Cubs haven’t been awful to start the year, they are still an average at best lineup and one that Castillo should be able to handle with relative ease.  A double ace combo of Urias and Castillo very well could be the combo that gets you to the winner’s circle tonight.  A combined 50 points from the two is very well attainable.

Bryce Elder vs. Cincinnati Reds

If you want to go the cheap route tonight with one of your pitchers, Bryce Elder is more than likely the play.  In his lone outing this season, he looked absolutely dominant vs. the Cardinals.  In that start, he went 6 innings without allowing a single run.  He also struck out 6 and gave up just 2 hits.  The lineup that he’ll face tonight against the Reds will be far weaker than what he saw a week ago vs. the Cardinals.  Can he do it again at just $6.6k?  It’s absolutely in the realm of possibilities. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Before I get into my stacks I want to touch on Coors.  Both teams are 100% in play.  Anytime a team is playing in Coors, they are in play and you just don’t need me to tell you that.  My goal here is to provide you with other options and that’s what I’ll be doing.  I don’t want that to take away from the fact that both teams in Coors tonight have phenomenal matchups. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly’s first start of the season could not have gone any worse.  Against the Reds, he went just 4 innings and gave up 6 ER and 9 hits.  It was a struggle for him right from the very start of the game and with facing a much better Mariners lineup tonight, we very well could expect to see the same thing. 

The only thing that Smyly had going for him in that initial outing was that he was able to limit Reds hitters from inducing hard contact as they had a 16% hard-hit rate.  One might say the BABIP gods weren’t in his favor.  When you allow a nearly 81% contact rate though, you’re just asking for trouble and he’ll see some trouble tonight.

Core:  My core with the Mariners tonight will be Julio RodriguezTeoscar HernandezEugenio Suarez, and AJ Pollock. 3 of the 4 guys have long track records of being able to hit lefties well.  Hernandez last year absolutely annihilated lefties with a .450 ISO and a .435 wOBA.  He’s one of my favorite bats on the board tonight and should excel in this matchup.  Rodriguez has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 games and a world of upside tonight. 

Secondary:  Other than my core with the Mariners, I’ll also look to add in guys like Sam Haggerty, Ty France, and Cal Raleigh.  All three of them have good to solid numbers vs. lefties and should also do well in this matchup. 

Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin

You knew I was going to go here right?  If Corbin is on the mound, I’m stacking against him and that awful Nationals bullpen.  Corbin has now thrown in 2 games and has an ERA of 8.  While that seems high, his xFIP of nearly 5 does indicate that he’s awful.  After giving up a 64% groundball rate in his first outing, he ended up giving up way more line drives and fly balls in his second out.  If that continues tonight, he’s going to get rocked by a team that has done extremely well vs. lefties this season so far.  So far in 2023, the Angels have an OPS of .946 and a wOBA over .400. 

Core: The obvious part of the core here is going to be Trout and Ohtani.  Nothing that I can say here will do their talents justice.  They are two of the best in the game.  I’m also going to add Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe to my core.  Hunter Renfroe lines up extremely well tonight with Corbin.  Over the past few seasons, he has a .423 ISO vs. lefty sinkers and a .577 wOBA.  He’s going to homer tonight. 

Secondary/Value:  Other important bats here will be Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon.  They should both smash in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Wade Miley

Wade Miley is coming off a shutout of the New York Mets.  Even though he gave up 0 runs in that start, his xFIP for the start was well over 5.  To go along with his 3 k’s in 6 innings, he also gave up a 48% flyball rate.  Giving up flyballs almost half the time is asking for trouble and this Diamondbacks team has some sneaky power vs. lefties. 

Core:  We’ll want to get Christian Walker, Evan Longoria, and Lourdes Gurriel into our lineups tonight.  Walker had a .232 ISO vs. lefties last season and a wOBA over .350.  I’m also very intrigued by Gurriel tonight.  He lines up very well with Miley.  Miley throws his cutter more than 40% of the time to righties.  This is a pitcher that Gurriel has handled well in his career.  Over the last few years, he has a .429 ISO vs. it and a wOBA of .482. 

Secondary Value:  We’ll also want some shares of guys like Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte.  They’ll all have the platoon advantage and that’s extremely key when a lefty is on the mound, especially one in Miley.  Miley is dominant vs. lefties but can be beaten by righties.  

MLB DFS Summary

Even though this is a Coor’s slate, we’ll have plenty of options tonight.  There’s going to be lots of offense to go around. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there’s a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)

Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that’s full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there’s a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It’s one of the early games, so we’ll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there’s no late start or delay — which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an early hook. The White Sox righty, on the other hand, should go a little deeper into this game and has the highest projected FD total of the slate — and the most upside. Aside form his last start in Detroit on July 4, he’s handled the Tigers (who have the third-highest K rate in MLB) pretty well this season. Giolito is a fine play in all formats.

GPP Value Play: Chris Flexen ($9,100)

Flexen isn’t a dazzling SP option, but he’s usually god for 5-6 Ks and almost always pitches 5-7 innings — an important factor when we consider the stage of the season we’re at. The Angels are sporting the second-worst team wOBA in baseball over the past 14 days (.273) with a paltry .218/.302/.322 slash line in that span. Flexen’s upside is capped at around 50 FD points, but he’s got a great shot at hitting 35-40 points if you’re looking for some safety. As long as he stays away from throwing too many cutters (the Angels hit that pitch relatively well), he’ll have success with his fastball/curveball combo.

Contrarian GPP Play: Zac Gallen ($8,400)

Gallen hasn’t had the season many hoped for, as the righty showed lots of promise during his first two seasons in the big leagues. But he’s been a thorn in the side of the Rockies, pitching well in his last start in Coors (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER and 9 Ks — good for 52 FD points on Aug. 21). Even when he got “rocked by the Rockies” earlier in a home start, he struck out seven batters. I love him as a cheap contrarian play who could have a ceiling game against a lineup that’s got nothing to strive for except their pride.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves

I’m assuming the Braves won’t sit everyone again tonight since the lineup core got a breather on Friday, but we’ll have to check back before lock to make sure they’re playing. Even with an early yank, these hitters have plenty of upside and could pile up some runs in the first few innings facing Mets SP Trevor Williams. The priority bats are Freddie Freeman ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,400), Adam Duvall ($3,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,000). Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies would be in play, but are expected to get the night off.

GPP Value Stack: Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a slew of excellent hitters in absolute SMASH spots tonight versus Royals SP Kris Bubic, and I’ll be starting my stacks with Jorge Polanco ($3,600), Byron Buxton ($4,100) and Josh Donaldson ($3,400). We can choose our fourth hitter from riskier but high-upside cheaper options like Mitch Garver ($3,100), Miguel Sano ($2,500) and Brent Rooker ($2,200). They’ll be my primary GPP stack and should produce a lot of fireworks tonight.

GPP Value/Contrarian Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

We don’t write up the D-backs much in this space, but they matchup up well against Antonio Senzetela, who’s been okay this season but has struggled through his past few starts. I’ll have at least a couple GPP lineups Arizona stacks featuring an array of hitters form the 1-6 spots in their order, prioritizing Ketel Marte ($3,400), David Peralta ($2,300), Daulton Varsho ($2,300), Pavin Smith ($2,100) and Carson Kelly ($2,400), with a few shares of cheap (and near-minimum price) leadoff hitter Josh Rojas ($2,100).

More (Obvious) Cash/GPP Game Stack Options: Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians & Chicago White Sox

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.

With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.

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On the Defense

I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.

JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels

$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK

My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.

RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres

$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK

With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.

BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners

$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK

The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers

$6,700 DK

As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.

NameTeamWLIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Justin VerlanderAstros20621711.941.741.4136.60%15.50%2.533.24
Robbie RayDiamondbacks12816812.034.331.537.80%19.20%4.283.81
Brett AndersonAthletics1291714.582.531.0554.40%13.60%44.83
Reynaldo LopezWhite Sox9151768.183.271.7434.90%13.90%5.575.39

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On theAttack

We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.

JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds

Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.

Reds vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Eugenio Suarez4967.50%28.00%0.2710.372127
Aristides Aquino1616.20%24.80%0.2560.358118
Joey Votto42512.50%18.60%0.6730.35113
Derek Dietrich27910.00%23.30%0.4310.348111
Josh VanMeter22611.50%21.20%0.5470.32798
Tucker Barnhart30612.10%22.20%0.5400.31993
Curt Casali1339.00%27.80%0.3200.31489
Freddy Galvis4066.20%26.40%0.2320.3191
Jose Iglesias3953.00%14.20%0.2160.30382
Nick Senzel3047.20%28.30%0.2680.29477
Phillip Ervin1596.30%27.70%0.2330.27966
Michael Lorenzen329.40%28.10%0.3340.27262
Kyle Farmer1223.30%33.60%0.100.2654
Jose Peraza2792.90%16.10%0.1840.25450

Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBwOBAwRC+
Ketel Marte45410.10%14.10%0.7280.404150
Abraham Almonte3315.20%24.20%0.6300.399147
Kevin Cron575.30%33.30%0.1600.341109
Christian Walker4239.00%27.00%0.3370.341109
Eduardo Escobar4918.60%18.90%0.4540.335105
Alex Avila16219.80%34.60%0.5710.331102
Domingo Leyba2615.40%30.80%0.500.32698
Wilmer Flores1726.40%10.50%0.6100.32598
Tim Locastro1504.70%14.70%0.32160.31894
Adam Jones3575.90%19.00%0.3120.31189
Nick Ahmed4608.00%19.30%0.4270.29780
Carson Kelly26112.30%21.80%0.5600.29679
Jarrod Dyson39510.60%18.50%0.58290.27465
Jake Lamb19412.90%24.20%0.5310.27163
Josh Rojas1159.60%25.20%0.3820.26257
Ildemaro Vargas1565.10%13.50%0.3810.26156
Caleb Joseph323.10%21.90%0.1400.20822

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now By Clicking Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.

Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.

The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.

Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.

A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.

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9/23 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

This five-game 9/23 MLB DFS slate is a rather odd duck. Besides the simple fact we have a small player pool to choose from, we also have several matchups that for DFS purposes are a complete fade. The key tonight is going to be variance. Even in cash games the cash line between first place and last place, more-than-likely will be small. So, do not be afraid to take chances.

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On the Defense

PatrickCorbin vs. Philadelphia Phillies

$10,500 FD / $11,800 DK

Warning! The Philadelphia Phillies are a lot less dangerous than they appear in the mirror. Especially facing Patrick Corbin on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The Phillies are striking out 23.1 percent of the time versus LHPs with a middle of the pack .329 wOBA. Despite the fact Corbin has had two sub-par starts this year facing Philadelphia they were both on the road. His home ERA is 2.00 versus his 4.18 ERA while traveling. Corbin has the highest upside on the slate by far, and with no Coors Field game, and limited high-priced bats to spend up on, he is at the top of the hill.

BlakeSnell vs. Boston Red Sox

$7,500 FD / $10,300 DK

The algorithm on FD tonight seems to have hit the mark pricing wise with Snell set to pitch only three or four innings on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The thing is, if Snell goes four innings allowing one earned run while striking out six, that is a pretty good day in DFS. Especially on this slate, just keep in mind he will not be getting any kind of site bonuses tonight.

Snell has huge K upside while generally being able to keep batters under control. In his only start versus the mighty Red Sox he went six innings with seven strikeouts allowing one earned run. With Boston winding down their season, and the Rays in a dogfight for the Wild Card, I would take a shot here on FD.

ZackEflin vs. Washington Nationals

$8,200 FD / $6,200 DK

It’s a small 9/23 MLB DFS slate which means chances must be taken. Eflin this season facing Washington has a 1.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 18 innings. His price on DK is bottom low which makes no sense considering he has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. This makes for a fine GPP play on FD, and a great pitcher to pair with Corbin on DK, despite facing each other.

NameTeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Patrick CorbinNationals191.210.523.010.9948.90%13.00%3.13.61
Blake SnellRays10312.233.061.2240.20%16.30%4.193.21
Zach EflinPhillies150.27.232.511.4344.70%15.10%44.67

On theAttack

MikeShawaryn vs. Tampa Bay Rays

With the Red Sox playing at this point just to finish the season, Shawaryn could get stretched out an extra inning or two. His history suggests he will come in tonight, give up a bunch of runs right away, and be pulled. Why pull him now? The Rays offense is going to feast tonight facing a Red Sox team basically just giving guys innings. Stack away on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Tampa BayRays vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+
Austin Meadows40010.80%19.00%0.57100.3830.5750.9580.2790.393151
Brandon Lowe2468.50%28.90%0.350.3580.5480.9060.2650.376139
Willy Adames3778.80%24.90%0.3530.3640.4680.8320.1710.353124
Ji-Man Choi38413.50%22.40%0.620.3670.4520.8190.190.347120
Eric Sogard3228.40%12.70%0.6660.3560.4380.7950.1440.338112
Avisail Garcia3425.00%24.30%0.2100.3330.4590.7920.1710.333110
Tommy Pham4379.60%18.80%0.51150.330.4410.7710.190.327106
Jesus Aguilar21711.50%21.20%0.5400.3330.4180.7520.1740.3296
Yandy Diaz2279.30%15.40%0.610.3170.4280.7450.1790.31498
Nathaniel Lowe1316.90%29.00%0.2400.3130.4290.7420.1680.31397
Joey Wendle1924.70%15.10%0.3170.3180.3870.7050.1270.30290
Travis d’Arnaud2288.30%21.90%0.3800.3030.3680.670.1320.28981
Kevin Kiermaier3425.80%20.80%0.28140.2570.390.6470.1890.2768
Daniel Robertson13610.30%23.50%0.4410.2870.2710.5580.0930.25557
Mike Zunino1835.50%33.90%0.1600.2350.3650.60.1880.25457
Guillermo Heredia1039.70%29.10%0.3320.2670.2440.5120.0930.23746

AdamWainwright vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Before you read any further you need to understand the Cardinals are playing at another level right now, and their pitching is no exception. Wainwright has been lights out lately both at home, and on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also 26th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs. Everything looks to be in order tonight for Adam basically facing Eve. Or is it? If I had a nickel for every time I jumped on a pitcher with a tendency to be horrible on the road, who suddenly is Nolan Ryan, I would have a whole lot of nickels over the last seven years. On a five-game slate, with no one looking here, I am going to take some chances in GPP play on a Wainwright regression for this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSwOBAwRC+
Abraham Almonte2711.10%25.90%0.4300.4070.6671.0740.437171
Ketel Marte45410.10%14.10%0.7280.3960.5770.9730.404150
Christian Walker4118.80%26.80%0.3370.3360.480.8150.341108
Kevin Cron535.70%35.80%0.1600.2640.5710.8360.337106
Eduardo Escobar4788.40%19.00%0.4440.3180.5020.820.336106
Alex Avila15819.60%34.20%0.5710.3670.4490.8160.336105
Wilmer Flores1656.70%10.30%0.6500.3520.3670.7180.31491
Adam Jones3455.20%19.40%0.2720.3140.4180.7320.31189
Tim Locastro1424.90%15.50%0.32150.3620.3080.670.30786
Carson Kelly25112.00%21.50%0.5600.3030.4160.7180.29881
Nick Ahmed4448.10%19.10%0.4270.30.3970.6970.29478
Jarrod Dyson38210.70%18.10%0.59290.3070.3260.6330.2869
Jake Lamb18313.70%23.50%0.5810.3110.2890.6010.27264
Josh Rojas1009.00%24.00%0.3820.280.30.580.25854
Ildemaro Vargas1505.30%14.00%0.3810.2730.3030.5760.25150
Caleb Joseph293.40%20.70%0.1700.2140.2310.4450.19916

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Patrick Corbin has had eight strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts. With the Phillies striking out so heavily versus RHPs, the over is the path here.

Zach Eflin has had great success facing Washington this season easily surpassing 3.5 strikeouts in each start. Why should this change tonight? Over.

Despite Adam Wainwright’s recent success I smell serious regression here tonight. Over his last six starts he only has more than four strikeouts one time. The under is where I am looking on this one.

Although the Cardinals are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus RHPs, the pitcher in question has a lot of four strikeout games. Facing a hot Cardinals team the under is the answer.

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Cash withthe Flash Best Bets had a rough day with a couple of bad beats yesterday. Wesuggested you lay 12.5 points and play Boise State to defeat Marshall and wealso suggested taking 18.5 points and playing Rice to cover at home againstGeorgia Tech.

Boise Statewon the football game by seven points after racking up 15 first downs in thesecond half and scored just seven half points while holding Marshall tonegative yards in the second half.

That’s a badbeat if ever there was one.

Rice was an 18.5-pointhome dawg against Wake Forest and lost 41-21. The Owls went in the locker-roomdown 10 points at halftime and were outscored by 10 points in the second half.

That one wasbad luck.

Either way, Cashwith the Flash Best Bets went 0-2 ATS on the day. It’s another day at theoffice and leaves us 5-4 ATS in NCAA Football.

Cash with the Flash Best Bets is now 30-17 overall and that is where the rubber meets the proverbial road. A 63 percent rate is still hitting them pretty well and we have a full day to hopefully make up for those bad beats.

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Besides theNCAA ATS games I posted for today, there are a couple of baseball gamesI like;

ArizonaDiamondbacks (+135) vs CincinnatiReds (-160)  

GreatAmerican Ball Park 4:10 pm ET

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets Pick: Arizona

Arizonastill has something to play for and Friday night defeated Cincinnati 7-5. Cincinnatidoesn’t hit lefties well and Arizona has lefty Alex Young on the hilltoday. Young is 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA away from Chase Field and has allowed eightearned runs over his four road starts this season. The Reds have a .172 ISO and.332 wOBA with 40 dingers against southpaws this season.

The Reds will counter with their ace Luis Castillo; the righty has allowed 20 earned runs over his last five starts and up against a Diamondbacks offense that leads the National League in runs scored away from home, a .325 wOBA and 135 bombs this season against righties.  Your Cash with the Flash Best Bets suggests playing the Diamondbacks to beat the Reds Saturday afternoon.

St LouisCardinals (-140)vs PittsburghPirates (+120)

PNC Park:7:05 pm ET

Cash withthe Flash Best Bets Pick: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have won six of 10 and a 2.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs but lost game one of this series Friday night. Today they are up against Pirates lefty Steven Brault. Brault has a 3.63 ERA and is 0-3 at PNC Park this season. He’s allowed nine earned runs over his last five starts at home this season. Cardinals 1B Paul Goldschmidt has two bombs and five RBI over nine at-bats against Brault. The Cardinals have a .186 ISO and .326 wOBA with 39 bombs against lefties this season.

The Cardinals will counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who has allowed 19 earned runs over his last five starts on the road with seven of those earned runs coming five starts ago in Cincinnati. Adam Frazier and Starling Marte have both gone yard twice in their career against Wainwright. Pittsburgh has a .179 ISO and .340 wOBA with 119 home runs against righties this season. The Cardinals have plenty to play for with a veteran who’s pitching well at the right time. Cash with the Flash Best Bets suggests playing the Cardinals to beat the Pirates this evening.

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

MLB Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI): 7.50 Runs

**Low Risk

I’m going to get the Coors chalk out of the way to start things off. We have Merrill Kelly taking on the Rockies at home tonight. Kelly owns a 4.52 ERA, 4.61 FIP, and 4.82 SIERA. Kelly is allowing the second highest hard contact rate on the slate at 42.4% and 1.51 HR/9. He tends to struggle the most on the road, allowing righties to slash to a .335 wOBA, .479 SLG, and .325 OBP. He has allowed 28 earned runs in 36 innings pitched against them. Rockies batters are slashing to a .321 wOBA, .171 ISO, and 81 WRC+ over the last month and they get the highest implied run total here tonight.

Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4600 FD|$5600 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4500 FD|$5400 DK), Charlie Blackmon ($4700 FD|$5700 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4200 DK). Yonathon Daza ($2600 FD|$3200 DK) and Raimel Tapia ($3100 FD|$4100 DK) make excellent value plays.

MLB Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Peter Lambert (COL): 6.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Arizona hasn’t been as hot as you’d like them to be coming into tonight’s matchup, slashing to a .325 wOBA, .167 ISO, and 97 WRC+. Despite this, the Diamondbacks get a gravy matchup against Peter Lambert, who struggles immensely at home. He is allowing batters to slash to a .399 wOBA, .626 SLG, and .358 OBP. He has allowed 24 earned runs and nine home runs in 29 innings pitched. Colorado/Arizona will be very popular, so get creative in tournaments. Also looks like some pricing we can take advantage of on FanDuel, as Arizona bats are underpriced there.

Preferred Plays: Christian Walker ($3600 FD|$4900 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), Ketel Marte ($4400 FD|$5500 DK), and David Peralta ($3800 FD|$4900 DK). Jake Lamb ($3100 FD|$4300 DK), Jarrod Dyson ($3200 FD|$5300 DK), and Carson Kelly ($3300 FD|$5200 DK). serve as good value plays.

Other Teams I Like

MLB Stack: Cincinnati Reds

vs. RHP Erick Fedde (WSH): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Josh VanMeter ($2600 FD|$3700 DK), Jesse Winker ($3000 FD|$3800 DK), Joey Votto ($3400 FD|$3800 DK), and Eugenio Suarez ($4100 FD|$4500 DK). Aristicles Aquino ($3900 FD|$4400 DK)

MLB Stack: Toronto Blue Jays

vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 5.50 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Bo Bichette ($4100 FD|$4500 DK), Randal Grichuk ($3000 FD|$3800 DK), Vlad Guererro Jr. ($3600 FD|$4200 DK), and Derek Fisher ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).

MLB Stack: Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mitch Keller (PIT): 5.25 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Mike Trout ($4900 FD|$5400 DK), Justin Upton ($3300 FD|$3600 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3700 FD|$4300 DK), and Kole Calhoun ($3200 FD|$3800 DK). David Fletcher ($2900 FD|$3300 DK) for value.

Pitching

  1. Zack Greinke RHP (HOU): 3.20 Runs
  2. Anthony DeSclafani RHP (CIN): 5.00 Runs
  3. Joey Lucchesi LHP (SDP): 3.82 Runs

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Trust me, the 8/10 DFS pitching slate is pretty darn thin in quality. Sure, there’s a handful of familiar names, some of whom were once solid pitchers. The majority of starting arms feels more like a Saturday special from Guy’s Groovy Grab Bag, one that includes the ever-annoying TBD, otherwise known as the DFS version of Mystery Date (kids, Mystery Date was a…aw, just Google it).

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8/10 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers 

Charlie Morton, TB at SEA

DK ($10,700)   FD ($10,100) 

One of two Cash Game-worthy arms pitching today, Morton is on pace to get the A.L. Cy Young scraps that former Astros teammates Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander will leave on the floor. Morton is on pace to surpass his career-best 201 strikeouts, fanning at least six in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s been a model of consistency, especially for FanDuel users, as he’s recorded at least 30 FD points in 11 of his last 13 starts. The Mariners are almost tailor made for another evening of Morton making opposing lineups look like human air conditioners as Seattle’s offense is 26th in strikeout percentage (25.6%). Morton is difficult to homer against, having allowed just 11 over 143.1 innings of work, with much of that is due to the struggles that come from getting fly balls off of him (30.1% fly ball rate). If you’re going to spend money on an arm, then invest it in Morton.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at WAS

DK ($10,500)   FD ($10,800) 

…or Syndergaard, who’s been ruthlessly efficient over his last five starts, going at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each. Oh yeah: he’s not given up a homer since July 6. His run is part of the reason why the Mets have won 14 of their last 15 as Syndergaard goes against a Nationals lineup he’s handled well this season, holding them to a .179 batting average and striking out 19 over 20 innings (three starts). The Nats have, however, homered three times against him, neatly explaining the 3.60 ERA. Syndergaard’s 3.44 FIP is a better indication of how effective he has been rather than his 3.96 ERA. Like Morton, Thor drops major hammer on those seeking to get solid contact off him, oppressing batters to a 28% hard contact rate while keeping fly balls at a modest 32.6% clip.The Nats’ 95 OPS+ falls just below league average. More concerning about the Nationals’ lineup is how bereft of power they are on the road. Washington loses 60 points off its slugging percentage (.466 to .406) when away from home. Those numbers are worse when looking at their production at Citi Field, where Washington goes .227/.238/391.

8/10 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Soroka, ATL at MIA

DK ($9,100)   FD ($8,100) 

Miami’s bats roll over for Soroka almost as easily as my cat rolls over for treats. In 15 innings against Soroka this season, the Marlins have batted .115 with six hits and one earned run against the breakout righty. Soroka continues to be downright stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls, limiting opponents to a paltry 23.6% rate. With that kind of infrequency, it’s easy to see why Soroka has allowed just seven homers this season. He’s more miserly on the road, allowing a OBA of .197 in 12 starts outside the ATL and should be in line for another start in which his infielders stay fairly busy (54.6% ground ball rate).Since this is a family site, I’ll just say the Marlins offense stinks. Not my first choice of description, but rules. Miami is tied for last in OPS+ (78) and have hit a composite .235/.288/.399 since the All-Star Break. In a year of graphic power displays across the league, the Marlins remain the only team in the Majors without at least 100 homers. You can’t use Marlins Park as too much of an excuse; you could put Miami’s lineup in Yankee Stadium and they’d still struggle.

Kenta Maeda, LA vs. ARI

DK ($7,000)   FD ($7,700)

He’s pitching at home, which is why it can be considered safe to start Maeda, who has a 3.17 ERA and a .181 OBA at Dodger Stadium. Maeda also gets bonus points for his work against the Diamondbacks this season, holding Arizona’s bats to a .175 OBA. Home runs, which weren’t an issue in 2018, have reared their ugly head this year with Maeda allowing 1.40 HR/9. That’s due in part to a rise in his fly ball rate, which has gone to 39.1%, almost near the levels that got him in homer purgatory in 2017. Being at home should also further suppress Maeda’s 29.6 hard contact rate. Although the Diamondbacks have been solid in making contact this season, again, the pleasure of being in Dodger Stadium, where he strikes more than a batter per inning, works in Maeda’s favor.

8/10 DFS Punt Plays

Aaron Sanchez, HOU at BAL

DK ($6,900)   FD ($8,200) 

Who else but Sanchez to highlight the punt play? If you saw his 10-strikeout, no-walk effort in his last start with the Blue Jays, last Saturday’s six innings of no-hit ball against the Mariners as part of a combined no-no could have been seen coming (somewhat). Granted, no one expected the no-hitter, but Sanchez had been quietly regaining his control. He enters this evening’s start having gone five straight starts with two walks or fewer and with the Astros bullpen far more reliable than what he had in Toronto, Sanchez can air it out for 5-6 innings with limited damage before hitting the showers. His fastball was more pronounced in his first Houston start, making him yet another apt pupil from Astros pitching coach Brent Strom.

 

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

DFS Team Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman: 7.00 Runs

**Low Risk

This Twins lineup is the clear cut top stack on the slate. They are facing Glenn Sparkman, who is by no means a good pitcher. The odds are heavily against him, owning a slate low 12.8% K rate. He is only inducing a 7% swinging strike rate as well. Sparkman is giving up a slate high 84.9% contact rate and 2.04 HR/9 innings. He owns a 5.25 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA. Sparkman is getting absolutely blasted on the road, allowing batters to slash to a .441 wOBA, .674 SLG, and .401 OBP over 33 innings pitched. Glenn Sparkman has allowed 32 earned runs in those 33 innings. The Twins are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 122 WRC+ over the last month.

*I want to emphasize the importance of getting a lot of exposure across the board here. Just about every player in this Twins lineup grades out very well today.

Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), Max Kepler ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4500 FD|$5500 DK). Also consider Miguel Sano ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), and Luis Arraez ($2800 FD|$3900 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Houston Astros

vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi (SEA): 6.45 Runs

**Low Risk

Another expensive stack here, but this Astros squad is in a great spot at home. Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound and owns a 5.21 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. He has a lowly 16.6% K rate and 8.9% swinging strike rate. Kikuchi is giving up 1.89 HR/9 innings and a 45% ground ball rate. His splits are fairly close, allowing batters to slash to a .354 wOBA, .340 OBP, and .510 SLG. The Astros are back to full health and the bats are hot. They are slashing to a .368 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .136 WRC+ over the last month.

Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5000 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), George Springer ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), and Carlos Correa ($3900 FD|$4600 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 7.70

**Moderate Risk

The Rockies are back home and we all know what happened the last time they faced the Giants. These teams played a four game series against each other back in mid-July and combined for a whopping 55 runs. Shaun Anderson takes the mound, owning a 5.06 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. Anderson has not been good to righties on the road this season, allowing them to slash to a .416 wOBA, .587 SLG, and .416 OBP. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 21 innings on the road against them. The Rockies are slashing to a .309 wOBA, .149 ISO, and 74 WRC+ right now. These numbers aren’t good but I think this is a nice spot for a slump buster at home.

Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4200 FD|$5200 DK), Daniel Murphy ($3400 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($3500 FD|$5200 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).

Honorable Mention

DFS Team Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks

vs. RHP Joe Ross (WSH): 5.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Ketel Marte ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), David Peralta ($3600 FD|$4000 DK), and Jake Lamb ($2700 FD|$3800 DK). Also consider Jarrod Dyson($3100 FD|$4300 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs.LHP Dillon Peters (LAA: 6.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$4400 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3600 FD|$4700 DK) and Francisco Lindor ($4100 FD|$5200 DK).

DFS Team Stack: Texas Rangers

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Roughned Odor ($3000 FD|$4500 DK), Hunter Pence ($3700 FD|$4800 DK), Willie Calhoun ($3500 FD|$4900 DK) and Shin-soo Choo ($3400 FD|$4700 DK).

Pitching

  1. Dustin May RHP (LAD): 3.50 Runs
  2. Lance Lynn RHP (TEX) : 3.50 Runs
  3. Robbie Ray LHP (ARI): 4.00 Run

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Your preferred MLB DFS Stacks for the Tuesday slate.

  1. Braves: Atlanta remains at home and gets a reeling Royals team and mediocre lefty Danny Duffy. All the Braves bats are in play in MLB DFS Stacks against this southpaw and the bad bullpen.
  2. Nationals: This was going to be my stack last night before they cancelled the game with plenty of warning for DFS purposes. I see no reason not to think they are still in a great spot and I will fire this stack up tonight against Peter Lambert and the rest of the depleted Rockies pitching staff.
  3. Twins/Yankees: I will combine both of these teams here for MLB DFS Stacks as their lineups are not altogether different. Both have a 1-9 that makes the pitcher work, with no breaks or places to catch their breath. We saw what happened last night in this hitter’s park that is Target Field, there is no reason in my mind to expect anything different tonight.
  4. Diamondbacks: The Snakes, besides being my favorite animal, are smack-dab in the middle of the N.L. playoff race and get to take their swings against newly returned from the IL Dylan Bundy and the rest of the bad Orioles bullpen. We have seen Arizona blow teams up several times over the past few weeks, and there is no reason to believe that they can’t do that again tonight. They are very useful among MLB DFS Stacks.

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