Overview

In the previous MLB article I penned and entitled Homers or Starting Pitching I discussed the concrete reasons that no matter how much offensive power is in a MLB lineup, starting pitching rues the day when it comes to identifying true contenders. In this article I will discus a starting pitching and bullpen system that has done extraordinarily well over many seasons.

MLB 60-Game Season Sprint

I truly could not believe the headlines I read last nightthat MLB had finally announced they were having a 60-game season that wouldbegin in late July and teams to report to camps July 1. Aside from the bickeringabout dollar signs during a pandemic, I am glad that America’s pastime is aboutto take flight.

Starting Pitching and Bullpen Situational Betting

In a 162-game regular season marathon, fatigue alwayspresents during the Dog Days of Summer. So, in a 60-game sprint, thebounce-back from a poor performance will be much quicker. For instance, a teamthat has had its bullpen rocked over three games will have a much strongpropensity to revert back to the mean and more likely to outperform the mean.  Teams know that anything beyond a 3-gamelosing streak cannot occur in a 60-game sprint to the playoffs.

Setup Men and Closer Roles in the Bullpen

In Colorado, the Rockies have always used their bullpensmore in their home games than any other MLB team. The reason is altitude, butnow it is a sprint and closer Wade Davis cannot afford to have his usual issuescoming into the All-Star break. The Rockies setup man is Scott Oberg, who iscompletely recovered from a blood clot that cut his 2019 season short. TheX-factor in Denver is Carlos Estevez, who has electric stuff period and isintimidated by no one. Estvez thorws 98 MPH, but his sinker is his best pitchthat averages 96 MPH and has heavy arm-side horizontal movement averaging 7.4inches. That pitch is devastating to even the best right-handed hitters in theleague.

The Details of the Starting Pitching and Bullpen System

The betting system starts with a bullpen that has beenrocked for 10 or more runs over their last three games, but has a startingpitcher in good form having thrown 18 or more innings over his last threestarts. A quality start is when a starting pitcher completes six or moreinnings and allows three or fewer earned runs. So, if a starter has completed 18innings over three starts he is averaging a quality start spanning his lastthree starts. Moreover, he could complete seven innings, six innings, and fiveinnings to total the required 18 innings or posting two quality starts in hislast three starts.

The Base Results of the Starting Pitching and Bullpen System

So, teams that have a starter in good form and have had troubles from a bullpen that has allowed at least 10 runs in the last three games have earned a 298-173 record good for 63.3% winning bets and a $14,190 profit per $100 wager and a very strong 24.5% return-on-investment (ROI) since 2012. Using the 1.5 Run Line, these teams have earned a 282-189 record for 60% winning bets and a $10,177 profit per $100 bet and a solid 17% ROI since 2012.

Slicing the Starting Pitching and Bullpen Dataset

Let’s take the base starting pitching and bullpen betting system and add a slicer in identifying only road games. As we know, road teams are lined as underdogs far more than not and betting on dogs that consistently win over the course of a season is a sure-fire way to make some big profits.

So, when these struggling pens are backing a strong starting pitcher in road games, the record soars to a jaw-dropping 192-85 record for 69% winning bets and has made $14,019 per $100 bet and an outstanding 44% ROI since 2012. Using the Run Line, these road warriors have earned a 198-79 mark good for 72% winning bets and has made $11,050 per $100 wager and returns a 28.4% ROI since 2012.

Does the Site of the Game Matter?

The site of a game is very important with this situationalstarting pitching and bullpen betting system. When the team is coming off anaway game and is on the road again they have earned a 168-66 record for 72%winning bets making $13,415 per $100 bet and a juicy 50% ROI since 2012. Usingthe Run Line, these teams have earned a 171-63 record good for 73% winning betsmaking $10,250 per $100 wager and an attractive 30.3% ROI.

What if They Blew a 2+ Run Lead?

Here is the cheesecake. If the team had a 2 or more run leadin the previous game that they lost, the bounce back is monumental. Since 2012,teams in these exact situations have earned a remarkable 23-8 record good for74% winning bets and has made $2,176 per $100 wager and robust 63% ROI. Usingthe Run Line, these teams have earned a 23-8 mark good for 74% winning bets making$1,620 per $100 wager and a solid 39% ROI.

The Starting Pitching and Bullpen System Track Record

Each slice of the base starting pitching and bullpen dataset creates an improved betting system and all of them have not had a losing season since 2004. So, consider grading the system as 1-unit, 2-unit, 3-unit for each tier in which a team is an active bet and the ROI’s will soar and so will your bankroll.

By the way, the Rockies, are 4-1 in this situation and I do think they will use their three key relievers mentioned above a whole lot more in the shortened 2020 sprint.

I hope you enjoyed this article and be sure to check out all of the other fantastic Win Daily Sports articles too. I can be found on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 and I welcome further discussion from you. Please join me on the Free Discord Chat to get things started. See you soon.