John Ryan 
Quality Starts or Home Runs?
MLB fans and sabermetric lovers are always engaged in statistical debates like the homers or starting pitching debate. General Mangers are always engaged in the game analytics and many use decision tree processes to make in-game decisions like pinch hitting and pitcher changes. This article is going to focus on the importance of the home run and starting pitching at the team level and then build the case that supports the one over the other.
The Importance of the Homer in 2019
I authored an article last year on the importance of the home run during the regular season and even greater importance in the playoffs. The league obliterated the previous HR mark in hitting 6,776 ‘dingers’ in 2019. The Minnesota Twins led the league with a jaw dropping 307 HR edging out the NY Yankees by just one. Moreover, this alone makes it easy to see the winner of the homer or starting pitching debate. Just hold on a second though.
As the chart below reveals the combination of on-base-percentage and total HR was lethal for the best teams. The result is not surprising until we note that St. Louis was 21st in on-base-percentage and hit a below-league-average 210 home runs. There are always outliers in data science and analysis and the Cardinals are an excellent example. The Cardinals does not detract form the fact that teams, who hit well and with power were earning their playoff destinies – save the teams that may or may not have stole signs. Sorry, had to say that.
What are Quality Starts?
This is the meat and patoes debate that has endured forcenturies in all sports. Does defense continue to win Championships? The answeris a big fat YES.
A quality start (QS) is defined as a starting pitcher thatcompletes at least six innings of work and does not allow more than threeearned runs. A quality start takes pressure off of the bullpen relievers andover time significantly reduces the bullpen’s work load and increases theiroverall effectiveness. The chart below shows the ranking of teams in 2019season by total number of quality starts. For instance, The World ChampionNationals are at the top of the list having had 55% of all games seeing theirstarter posting a QS. That metric compares extraordinarily well against a 37%MLB league average.
The Houston Astros led the Majors with 79 wins earned by their starters with the National’s starters earning 66 wins and good for a fourth-best ranking. Oakland was second in this category with 68 wins and the Twins with 67 wins ranked third. Moreover, both teams made the playoffs. In addition, other playoff teams included the Braves and Yankees with 60 wins each and ranking 7th, the Dodgers with 62 wins and ranking 6th, and the Cardinals with 55 wins ranking 10th. So, starter wins combined with quality starts is more powerful than home runs.
Tough Losses Despite Quality Starts
The luck factor evens out over the course of a season, but there are specific traits of the luck factor worth nothing. For instance, how many times does a starter go out and deliver the A-game and lose due to defense committing errors? So, of the 2019 playoffs teams, the Cardinals had 14 tough loss games ranking third-worst in MLB where their starting pitcher earned a QS. This fact hid the real strength of the Cardinals and is one reason why everyone was surprised by their incredible winning run in September.
The Dodgers were the best of the playoff teams at avoiding the tough loss and had just five of those games. The Brewers, Yankees, and Twins were next having 5 losses, then the Rays and Braves with 6 losses, the Nationals with seven losses. The Astros had 11 tough loss games, which is a head scratcher since they knew watch pitch was being thrown. Ok, that was the last time, promise. All of these teams had to make roster decisions that strengthened power hitting and homers or starting pitching and quality starts.
The Final Decision
This narrative has been a starting point to determine whether homers or starting pitching is more important for a MLB team’s success. I still believe that when building a MLB franchise or for the rest of us our MLB Daily Fantasy teams, the starting pitching is paramount in importance to any other position player or offensive team-level metric. Baseball is the only game where the defense has the ball and controls the game because they have the ball. Moreover, you can have the best closer and bullpen in the game, but if you do not have the strong starting pitching, you have only a mediocre team. A winning team needs to have great starting pitching so they can use their set-up men and closer.
2020 MLB Season Considerations
Picking a best bet to make for divisional winners using the best overall starting rotation is straight forward for all divisions except the NL East. The Nationals are without a doubt the best rotation in MLB with their front four of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Anibal Sanchez. Each of them rank among the top-15 starters in bWAR. However, they are on the elder side of the ledger and are coming off an October that saw that foursome complete 85% of the total workload.
The Phillies may be the sleeper rotation in the division and they are definitley a best bet to win the division with their inflated odds. Veteran pitching coach Bryan Price has a proven track record of excellence and his presence alone will make the starters better. Jake Arrietta is coming off bone spur surgery and will be at 100% for the first time in many seasons. Their ace Aaron Nola is not a house-hold name, but he did come in third in the NL Cy Young voting in 2018. His consistency was a problem in 2019 and Price knows how to mitigate that problem.
The end of the rotation is a big question mark and if VinceVelasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Zach Eflin do not step up, then look for thePhillies top pitching prospect Spencer Howard to earn it. He is the X-factor andis a vastly underrated talent.
I hope you enjoyed this article and be sure to check out all of the other fantastic Win Daily Sports articles too. I can be found on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 and I welcome further discussion from you. Please join me on the Free Discord Chat to get things started. See you soon.
