Last week was our first week for ownership projections. Before my article came out I saw lineups on Discord with Palmer, Griffin and Hughes on the same team, which made perfect sense, it gives you DJ and JT, DJ and Rahm, etc.
I made it a point in the article to mention several times to NOT put all 3 in a lineup in MME (multi entry big GPP), in fact, to only play one of the three if you absolutely had to. Why ? They were all 6-7 K range golfers with really poor odds to win, yet we calculated their combined projected ownership at 60%. The actual number after lock was 61% owned. Rostering all 3 would have put you dead in the water.
Palmer was almost 5% more owned than DJ ,and after our report came out people moved off Hughes and Griffin and then made Palmer popular, Sia and I promoted Palmer in Discord if you had to have one, he was the only one of the 3 to show up, and Hughes finished dead last.
We have a program called SIP — which tries to determine if any major % changes come from the teams already entered, or if it’s from new entries going in. Tuesday night Sia mentioned on the live stream show with Michael (shave that junk!) and Joel aka GrandMasterFlex (and the most popular relative on his family tree now that he’s another $100K richer) that Xander was coming off COVID and wasn’t in decent playing shape.
When we started the programs for ownership projections that next afternoon he was running at 22%,which means no one was aware of that info, Wednesday after practice he came out and said , “I’m in a weird place physically, I tried to walk the course today and I’m just not there, I guess I’ll try and play by memory.”
We started watching his numbers drop after everyone started blasting that on social media and watched JTs going up by the same amount. From then on ,with new entries, there was nothing for Xander and It all went to Justin Thomas. Information is so key to winning money in this industry, Sia had that info to us a good 24 hours before anybody and everyone else, big shoutout to you Sia!
This tourney didn’t fill, they got 69,307 entries and were shooting for 70,000+. At 2:00 on Wednesday there were 34,000 entries, the big GPP was less than half full when we started our projections. Kudos go out to my Palo Alto team for helping me get you the right numbers, and that allowed a lot of you to stay off 2 of 3 of the lowest tiered players with the highest ownership, it allowed you Palmer, or to pivot to Ortiz, or any number of other players in that range. Not only was it predictive, it was actionable information to help everyone make a better lineup.
I am so impressed with our teams here at Win Daily Sports, well, maybe except for that unnamed writer who allegedly was in Hawaii trying to get Morikawa’s signature at the pool for his life sized poster, there is something about a drenching wet grown man, with a unicorn floatie around his waist, fogged up goggles and a snorkel, being accosted by big security guys and read a restraining order in both English and Hawaiian, and the word “Haole” (pronounced howlee ) was used generously. You do have to admire his determination, he is a great writer of golf, and I truly hope he was using Michael’s Manscape product religiously, especially in that micro mini speedo.
Let’s get down to the…
Sony Open Final PGA DFS Ownership Projections
There are three front runners pretty close together. Sungjae Im has a slight lead at 26.7% ownership, Daniel Berger and Webb Simpson are just a sliver under that at 25.9%, they are tied at the moment. There is a steep drop to Abraham Ancer at 18.9%, Kevin Kisner is 18.3%, Patrick “Sharps “ Scott’s nominee for president, Collin Morikawa, is next at 18%, Ryan Palmer is 17.3%, Harris English is 16.4%, Russell Henley has moved UP to 14.9%, Joaquin Niemann is 14.5%, Cameron Smith is 14%, Sebastian Munoz is 12.7%, Brendan Todd is 12.6%, Emiliano Grillo is 11.9%, Charley lll sticks, (C.Howell lll) is 10.7%, Hideki Matsuyama is 10.5%.Sergio Garcia, Carlos Ortiz and surprise! – Scott Piercy are tied at 10.1%
The following golfers are under 10% ownership:
Lanto Griffin, Billy Horschel, and Zach Johnson are coming in at 9.9%. Tom Hoge has steadily moved up the charts to 8.9%, Brian Harman is 8.5%, Cameron Davis is a sneaky play at 8.4%, Russell Knox is 8.3%, Jason Kokrak is 7.9%, Marc Leishman is 7.7%, Adam Scott is 7.6% and a bargain at that ownership, Kevin Na is 7.1%, Anriban Lahiri is 7%, no no no. Rory Sabbatini is 6.9%, Peter Malnati is 6.9%, Sepp Straka is 6.8%, Michael Thompson is 6.7%, Matthew NeSmith is 6.6%, Keegan Bradley is 6.5%, Matt Kuchar is 6.3%, Doug Ghim is 5.7%, Patton Kizzire is 5.5%, Brian Gay is 5.4%, James Hahn is 5.1%.
The following golfers are under 5% owned:
Brandt Snedeker is 4.8%, Brian Stuard along with Jim Furyk and Si Woo Kim are at 4.5%, Brice Garnett, Charley Hoffman and Chez Reavie are 4%. Chris Kirk is 3.9%, Stewart Cink is 3.8%, JT Poston is 3.7%, Adam Schenk is 3.6%, Branden Grace is 3.5%, Hudson Swafford is 3.3%, Henrik Norlander is 3.1% Wesley Bryan and Robert Streb are 2.9%, Vaughn Taylor is 2.8%, Kyle Stanley is 2.7%, CT Pan is 2.6%, TalorGooch is 2.5%, Erik Van Rooyen is 2.4%, Pat Perez and Nick Taylor are 2.3%, Bo Hoag is 2.2%, Andrew Landry and Hank Lebioda are at 2.1%. Ted Potter and Jerry Kelly are 2%.
The following golfers are under 2% owned:
Jimmy Walker and Austin Cook are 1.9%, Richy Werenski is 1.8%, Danny Lee and Mark Hubbard are 1.7% Brendan Steele is 1.6%, Matt Jones is 1.4% owned, Kramer Hickok is 1.3% owned, Sunk Kang is 1.1%. All other golfers at the time of this article are less than 1%, including Jim Herman at 1%, and Luke List at 0.95%.
Picks for the Sony Open
Webb Simpson should slay this course with his skills and the way this course sets up for him. He is expensive and his ownership% is trending up.
I do like Sebastian Munoz, Brendan Todd, and Abraham Ancer.
My out in left play this week is Jerry Kelly, yes that Jerry from the Champions tour, he hasn’t missed a cut yet this year, it’s a short enough course, and he loves this layout. He is older than me, thank goodness he can play better than me. At 6200 and no ownership, he could smash just by making the cut….or…….he could just fall over and die of old age…….but let’s hope for make the cut.
Michael is on his honeymoon this week, he did tune into Sia and Joel last night on the Win Daily Sports golf livestream, that show is just too important to miss regardless of whatever you have going at the moment, I mean none of you have a new wife to make happy, right? So tune in every Tuesday evening, it helped me make 10,000.00 on a 5 dollar play not to long ago.
Michael also allegedly has arranged bail money for Patrick, who is paragliding over Morikawa’s rental home in Hawaii trying to get that signature. What could go wrong? Persistent, dedicated, and a good writer, that goes for Antonio and Isaiah as well.
Thank you very much for reviewing this article, we appreciate you members, and are working hard to get you all the tools to make money in DFS golf. Please check out all the articles by Sia, Antonio, Isaiah, and myself at Win Daily Sports and I will be in the DIscord channel once this article is published, and get ready for “Super” Sia’s Secret Weapon play, coming to you in Discord later tonight!
As always, I hope to be with you, in the money on Sunday afternoon.
Steven/SicilyKid
