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I will keep this short and sweet. If you have been following my run in Discord for the past 3 months of NFL and NBA prop betting you would have your next 10 years of membership paid in full. If you haven’t followed along there is no better time than the Super Bowl
The place I start my research process daily is reviewing the entire NFL Player Prop Model here. I will publish this after locking my first bet for the Super Bowl and will be adding more each day until we make it to kickoff.
Christian McCaffrey is very good at football. Whether running or catching passes he is once again very good at football. No matter the game script CMC must be involved to either play catchup or to close out the game. No lead will be safe against the Chiefs and I can easily see the the 49ers playing from behind. His reception prop is juiced heavily to the over of 4.5 when I’m writing this and it can easily pop to 5.5 by game time. If CMC gets 5-6 catches I think one of them goes for 20+ while the other 4-5 clears the prop easily. I road this last week as my biggest bet and will be locking at minimum of 1 unit on it.
Pacheco has gone over this number in 4 of the last 6 games and we just saw what Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery did to this 49ers defense. This is not the same fearful niners defense we faded in daily fantasy. The Chiefs will try to slow down this game and lean on Pacheco to relieve some pressure off Mahomes and the passing game. I laid 1 unit on Pacheco as soon as the market opened and wouldn’t be surprised that this number is 70+ soon.
Mr. Purdy is going to be talked about a lot leading up the Super Bowl and this will be a career defining moment for the kid early in his career. I am not a Purdy hater but I love crunching numbers. Purdy has gone over this number only 2 times this year and if the 49ers get out to a lead it will be almost impossible for Shanahan to keep chucking the ball when he has CMC in the backfield. On top of all the numbers the Chiefs will try to slow down the pace just like they did in Baltimore. Putting 1 unit on Purdy under 32.5 attempts and would be shocked if this doesn’t close at 29.5 or 30.5 by Sunday.
Elijah Mitchell will have to spell CMC sometime through this game as I see this as a big workload for CMC type of night. Also if the books are right and the 49ers win the fourth quarter may be filled with runs. One other factor that plays in and I don’t even want to say it but I will, god forbid any type of injury and this becomes the lock of all locks. You can’t predict injuries but I have seen plenty of rubbing of CMC on the sidelines. Don’t get upset when you see Deebo getting some touches, just be patient and lock this in for 1 unit.
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Jason has been a successful entrepreneur his whole life. Jason has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than seven years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship earning him $300,000. Jason has been a finalist at multiple live fantasy sports championships, and he recently achieved the one-million-dollar milestone for entry fees at DraftKings. From this experience, Jason developed Win Daily Inc. to help others succeed at playing Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and winning at the game of life. He owns and operates windailysports.com, which supports the DFS community with resources such as tools, projection models, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
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