Happy New Year WinDaily Fam! Let’s ring in 2023 with some cold hard cash into your DFS accounts by hammering the competition with our breakdown of this Week 17 NFL Main Slate. There were a few dimes in Week 16’s write-up, mainly attacking that Giants/Vikings matchup that led to fantasy galore. Let’s keep the heater going in this brutally cold winter this season, and pick apart this 13-game slate. Remember to stay locked into our Discord community for updates, lineup build advice, or any start/sit questions for your season-long championship games.
Wow, did Nick Foles fade away after winning Super Bowl LII four years ago? I think it’s safe to say to run from picking up any part of the Colts’ offense after what was displayed on MNF. Three picks with three total points on the scoreboard will scare anyone off using Indianapolis in DFS. And the fact that Foles will be starting again in Week 17 makes me crave the Giants‘ DST even more in my builds. For
As bad as the Colts offense has been, their defense does keep some points off the scoreboard. New York does need the win to stay alive in the Wild Card race and may depend on Saquon Barkley yet again. His $8,000 price is not sexy at all on DraftKings but should get the job done against a Colts’ team that has forked over 7 touchdowns in the past three games to opposing running backs.
Last week’s weather in Cleveland destroyed fantasy value all over the Saints’ offense besides Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara finding the endzone. On the road in Philadelphia will be no picnic either as the Eagles’ defense has amassed 19 sacks with three turnovers in their last three contests. An Andy Dalton-led Saints offense will be too risky for me to suggest anybody for DFS.
Looks like we will be getting a second dose of Minshew this week as starting quarterback Jalen Hurts still hasn’t practiced all week. If you used him last week in DFS, there was no problem with Gardner’s 28 DK fantasy points. The entire Eagles’ offense feasted except for running back Miles Sanders, who did suffer a minor injury in Dallas. Run the tables again in a game Philly needs to win and keep a grip on the one seed.
I will have 0 shares of Denver in DFS. The Christmas Day implosion of a skanky Rams team churning 51 points on them led to the firing of head coach Nate Hackett. With 25 other teams to pick from in this slate, I see no need to get cute by taking any Broncos this Sunday unless I was going to be creative in a tournament using Jerry Jeudy. Kansas City’s 29th DVOA to receivers allowed Jeudy to be WR1 for Week 14 with 33 fantasy points and catch three touchdowns.
Kansas City will keep its hand on the throttle and look to take over the first seed in the AFC. start your Chiefs in this matchup where we saw the Rams’ practice squad put a shellacking on this Broncos’ defense on Christmas Day. Just play them with caution this weekend, if Mahomes and the kingdom do grab a big lead early, it may lead to starters sitting in the second half. The only sure thing may be the Chiefs‘ DST as the cheat code against Russell Wilson’s bad cooking.
Head Coach Doug Pederson went on the record stating “We’ll play to win” against a meaningless game in Houston. I’ve seen him play this card before in Philadelphia back in 2020, pulling Hurts in the fourth quarter and dumping to the Commanders in a similar situation. Lawrence and the Jaguars are all in line to smash this weekend against the 2-13-1 Texans, but for three quarters possibly? If you feel otherwise, go for it and start’em. Me, I’ll wait until Week 18 when the Jacksonville season is on the line against Tennessee in a win-or-go-home situation.
Houston for only winning two games this season, they’ve played each game with a lot of heart for Head Coach Lovie Smith. One thing is for sure there is so much value these days in a Texan uniform. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is the only gig in town, and for $4,800 on DraftKings, double-digit fantasy points are easily attainable against the Jaguars’ 29th DVOA against the pass.
Carolina has had one dude all year since CMC left town that’s been a rock, and his name is DJ Moore. He’s had six touchdowns on the year and one in his last two games. The road to the NFC South for the Panthers is through Moore…period.
Big game for Brady and the Bucs this weekend if they want to make the playoffs, beat the Panthers, and lock up the division. Jared Goff had a field day last weekend throwing for over 355 yards and three touchdowns, a stat line that can be duplicated easily by the GOAT. And now that corner Jaycee Horn has been ruled out, Tampa’s receivers all get an upgrade. Especially the underperforming, Mike Evans who will see very low ownership this week.
Chicago gets into the spotlight again in DFS in their second meeting of the year with the Lions. Justin Fields set records and put up one of his two 40 fantasy point performances the last time he faced Detroit, so he’ll be heavily owned. If you’re looking to get in deeper on the Bears in this potential shoot-out, Cole Kmet will be Fields‘ first option to throw to when he’s not scrambling off for 70 yards.
Welcome to the chalk of Week 17 and the Lions’ offense. The pricing on DraftKings for Jared Goff has been ludicrous, making him likely the highest-owned quarterback for the slate. It will be an all-you-can-eat buffet for the Lions’ offense, as Chicago is second worst in points allowed this season. Of course, Amon Ra makes the cut with DJ Chark, but to be different in tournaments a running back or two would be a slick move to separate you from the field.
No Tua, no problem….Teddy Football is back under center. I’m not against using Tyreek or Waddle this week, just keep them out of your cash games. We have not seen a big enough sample with Bridgewater yet, but we do know the Pats have a laundry list of injuries at secondary (Marcus, Jonathon, and Jack Jones). Hill and Waddle may be in store for another track meet in New England if Bridgewater can get them the ball.
We’ve been riding the Rhamondre Stevenson train for running back for a decent chunk of the season, but it may all come to an end this week. Teammate Damion Harris will finally suit up again after suffering a bruised thigh in Week 12, which may lead to a split backfield again. But on the bright side, the timeshare at tight end will get the week off. Hunter Henry will see the lion’s share of snaps and targets because of a concussed Jonnu Smith. If Henry can shake his leg injury, he’s a steal at tight end on DraftKings ($3,000) against a bottom-two DVOA to opposing tight ends.
If you’re wanting to pivot from the Detroit/Chicago chalk, look no further. Deshaun Watson under $6K on Draftkings is what we’ve all been waiting for. The rust is beginning to fall off, and the matchups are getting softer. The chemistry is also building with Amari Cooper, and pairing with Watson would keep you under 5% in your GPP’s. The Commanders continue to be exploited in their secondary (The St.-Juste and Fuller show) and will be in another foot race with the Cleveland receivers on Sunday.
The rookie Brian Robinson will get his time to shine as teammate Antonio Gibson will sit this game out with a foot injury. The matchup couldn’t be any better for Robinson, forcing him into your builds as a lock against the second-worst run defense in football (30th in DVOA). Some other news, Wentz will be back to start at quarterback. Johon Dotson and Curtis Samuel instantly made the connection with Carson back at the beginning of the season, so getting them back in your builds is another way to be different at receiver.
It’s been a total meltdown in the desert as Arizona struggles to find a quarterback to play out the rest of the season. David Blough will get the call for this week, and we are fading across the board for the Cardinals. Even though James Conner may still be of value, he’s too risky for cash games. Falcons DST holds weight in this spot for Week 17.
The Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith has fully turned the keys over to his rookies for the rest of the season. Quarterback Desmond Ridder’s stats aren’t quite there yet, but running back Tyler Allgeier’s 200–plus yards rushing and London’s 20 targets, and 160-plus yards receiving have put a stamp on the Falcons’ offense. Both are safe for cash and tournaments.
They’ve been on a tear lately running on all cylinders with the rookie Brock Purdy, but going up against a Raiders team who’s packed it in for 2022, the Niners may not need to put up much of a fight. Although the Niners DST seems to be on the cheaper side for an odd reason this week ($2,900 on DraftKings), facing back-up Vegas quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Sign me up.
Who knows what we’ll see from head coach Josh McDaniels and the Raiders this Sunday, but whatever it is, it should involve a heavy workload for Josh Jacobs. Inexperienced quarterback Jarrett Stidham will lean heavily on the Raiders’ Pro Bowl running back, who may not be back next season. Keep Jacobs out of your cash games.
Mike White is back for New York, which is great news for the Jets’ pass catchers. Garrett Wilson will thrive once again in a Seattle Cover-One zone defense. Zonovan Knight also gets a bump up, rushing against a Seattle 31st in DVOA to running backs. Grab all three for your builds, just keep Mike White in GPP/SE formats.
Geno Smith will get a little taste of revenge against his former team that drafted him back in 2013. It may not be much to brag about though since the Jets’ defense has suffocated its opponents on offense all season. Besides the matchup, Seattle is burdened by injuries, mainly to receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks will be tough to roster, but if you’re feeling they can put up some sort of fight, receiver DK Metcalf is the last man standing for the offense and the only one to consider for tournaments.
Justin Jefferson needs no explanation for why he should be priced into all of your lineups, but running back Dalvin Cook deserves a little breakdown. The Packers continue to be torched by opposing running backs, allowing close to five yards per carry on the season and 144 yards per game. Cook being on the field with an 80 % snap share makes him a worthy roster for running back this week.
The touchdown passes have gone MIA this season for Rodgers, but we can’t overlook the Minnesota pass-funnel defense that’s surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL. Keep an eye on the Packers’ injury status for receiver Christian Watson, who may not play. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs will climb the depth chart if he sits, and should do well against the Vikings’ 32nd DVOA to receivers.
It’s officially Cam Akers season in LA. He’s locked into the driver’s seat at running back with a 75 % snap share for the past two weeks, scoring three touchdowns and rushing for over 180 yards. He’ll get another crack at a solid performance against a Chargers’ run defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to the position all season (26th in DVOA).
The Chargers have locked up their playoff berth, and a win or loss will not change anything in their position in the Wild Card Race. Rostering any of them in DFS would be very risky, as they may only see the field for half of the contest. For Herbert and company, we may not be able to use until the playoffs start.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 17. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
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