We’re back in action on Saturday after Friday produced some of the most insane scores we’ve seen all season. DraftKings GPP winners were pushing 450 points and I don’t think we’re going to see anything nearly that high tonight. We only have three games tonight so the roundtable approach is in play for the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/2!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Stars and scrubs.
Adam: We can go stars and scrubs with some of the value that we’ll highlight in a bit but my main focus tonight is playing the duo of Kevin Durant and Trae Young.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Trae Young.
Adam: Kevin Durant. The bottom line is we only have three games and the Hawks facing the Nets has a total of 241 points while the other two have totals of just 218. That is a massive difference and Atlanta is still in the bottom five in defensive rating on the season. I grant you that the Nets aren’t much better at 22nd so we want exposure to this game in as many ways as we can get it. Durant almost had a triple-double in the last game and he scored 55 DK despite shooting just three free throws through that overtime game.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: You can only play one of Kyrie/KD, and I’m likely siding with the latter in a single entry contest.
Adam: It’s going to wind up being Kyrie Irving just because of the salaries. He’s $10,300 and I’d almost always find the extra $300 for Young at that juncture. Those are the only three players on the slate over $9,000 so at most, you can only play two of them.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: The Hawks need this win to jump the Nets in the standings so there is no way I’m fading Trae Young. Depending on how the injury reports shake out, there can also be some value with the Nets, given that both Bruce Brown (illness) and Seth Curry (ankle) are listed as questionable.Adam: One aspect from the Brooklyn game that could really help fit everything you want is the center battle, but not the starting players. Both Nic Claxton for the Nets and Onyeka Okongwu for the Hawks play important backup roles for their teams. The starting centers (Andre Drummond and Clint Capela) typically top out at 28, maybe 30 minutes. That leaves Claxton and Okongwu to play 20-ish minutes each and both teams are in the bottom half of the league in points allowed in the paint. Going double punt center and two studs does leave over $5,000 per player on DraftKings and has my attention.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Trae Young and Kevin Durant combine for 80 points and 15 assists to lead the NBA slate in scoring by a wide margin.Adam:Jordan Poole is the third-highest scorer on the slate as he out-duels Donovan Mitchell in the late hammer, but Durant and Young still lead the slate as Ghost says.
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