It wasn’t the most banner night ever last night in part thanks to Ross Stripling. It was nice to see Zac Gallen continue to be the ace that he is and that saved us a little bit. We’re bringing Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.18 to you a little earlier today. A good chunk of props are already up and there’s an afternoon pitcher who is at a glorious number to try and hit.
There is never a sure thing in gambling but there are sometimes numbers that don’t make the most sense. Bundy’s K prop today is one of them to me.
I’m not sure I understand this one. Sure, San Francisco isn’t the biggest strikeout offense. They only sit at 21.8% to RHP and yes, Bundy is “worse” to LHH. The wOBA is .269 and the K rate is 21.6% and there could be up to six LHH facing him today. Even still, his four starts have generated seven, eight, 10 and 10 K’s. This is a great number and one I would play 100 times out of 100.
Bet – Over 5.5
This is another spot where the matchup isn’t glaring, but the number is plenty low enough to bring us in. It was between Montas and Yu Darvish but Darvish came in at 8.5 and I don’t want that number either way.
Montas is reportedly healthy after missing a couple days with some back issues. I’m not concerned myself because Oakland would not push him if he wasn’t ready to go. He brings an 11.6% swinging strike rate into this contest, which is a little tough. Arizona is under 20% in K rate as a team to RHH.
However, Montas throws the fastball 64% of the time. Arizona is dead last vs that pitch and Montas gets a 16% whiff rate on it. Montas might also have to deal with a LHH heavy lineup but the K rate is still at 22% to that side of the plate. Three of the D-Backs LHH are over 22% in their K rate, so I’m comfortable with this number for Montas. He’s only missed this number once out of his four starts on top of it.
Bet – Over 4.5
The Pittsburgh flow chart is in effect here in that there’s a talented pitcher on the hill, they stink and the prop is very attainable.
Carrasco has been a bit inconsistent but he’s had some tougher matchups. The Cubs and Twins are far superior lineups so there’s not any real reason to shy away here. The K rate so far is a career high 32.3% and we love to see that. His walks are up to almost 12% but Pittsburgh is dead last in walk rate to RHP, just like every other category. Carrasco should shove here and he’s passed this prop with ease in three of four starts.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 36-30
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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