We once again went 2-1 in yesterday’s edition so we’re still chasing the ever elusive 3-0 day. Dylan Cease really didn’t get close to his but Aaron Civale wrecked his and Paxton didn’t get anywhere close to seven K’s. We’re going to get a 3-0 day here soon, I can feel it. It could come as soon as today so let’s dive into Three StriKes for Monday August 3.
deGrom might be coming off a mediocre start but man this number feels depressed for where his pitch count is heading and his metrics so far.
When we look at deGrom through his first two starts, we see eight and four strikeouts. Those numbers don’t exactly pop but remember, he was on a pitch count. One start was 72 pitches and one was 88, so he should be good to go close to 100 tonight. His K rate is basically identical to 2019 at 31.6% where last year was 31.7%. That end of things checks out for me pretty easily.
When we look at the Braves side, we know that the offense is dangerous and they sit in the top 10 in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, ISO and wRC+. However, they also are approaching a 28% K rate. Additionally, deGrom posted a 36.4% K rate against Atlanta last year through 26.1 IP. He faced them four times and hit at least seven K’s all four times. That means a little more to me when the teams are within division and I’m going over for deGrom tonight.
Bet – Over 6.5
I wasn’t going into this article thinking I would go after Buehler since he’ll likely be around 75 pitches. The I saw the prop and I’m quite interested.
Buehler only whiffed three in his first start but the Padres strikeout nearly 5% more than the Astros do this year (24.3%). He leaned on the fastball/cutter mix a good bit in the first start and San Diego is top 15 against both pitches but that’s not something that scares me too much.
Last season saw Buehler post a K rate right about 29% and that’s plenty for me to chase such a low number. He only had two starts against the Padres in 2019 but man did he torture them. In 15 innings, he struck out a ridiculous 26 batters. Even on a shortened pitch count, I think chasing the talent at this number is well worth the risk.
Bet – Over 4.5
This was a tough choice. I gave Gerrit Cole a look but he sits at 8.5. Despite the Phillies not playing in a week, I couldn’t pull the trigger either way on that one. Instead, give me Plesac and a very attainable number.
Plesac is not the perfect candidate. Yes, he was mighty impressive in his first start. He whiffed 11 in eight innings and Cleveland just seems to churn out strikeout pitchers. It’s still worth noting that Plesac only had an 18.5% K rate in 115.2 innings last year.
The Indians righty really leaned on the slider in the first start at 32.7%, almost as much as the fastball. It generated a swing 63% of the time but yet didn’t yield a single hit. The Reds rank just 18th against that pitch, although they are ninth against the fastball. Losing Joey Votto won’t help their 20.1% K rate as a team and Plesac can get to five in this spot.
Record – 14-10
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