FINALLY, it happened. We’ve been very close all season long to the perfect night and we got it yesterday. Getting to 3-0 really wasn’t even too much of a sweat as all three pitchers beat their prop by at least two strikeouts. Since we’ve ditched the cover pitcher, Three StriKes is 5-1. We just needed to change the juju up. It’s a bit of an ugly slate for pitching overall, but Three StriKes for Monday 8.17 has some nice numbers to attack.
*NOTE* We are using multiple sports books for tonight but never fear! Win Daily has links to both to get on board!
FanDuel (if you haven’t sworn them off)
Another day, another chance to attack this Seattle Mariners team that should continue to make us money.
Stripling hasn’t been super consistent to this point in the season but we all know the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Dodgers righty leans on his fastball/curveball mix at about 73% of the time and that’s a great matchup as well. Seattle ranks 23rd vs the curve and 27th vs the fastball.
The K rate isn’t the most impressive one we’ve used at just 21.1% for Stripling. Still, the matchup outweighs that slight negative. Five projected hitters are lefty and over 50 lefties face, Stripling has a 28% K rate and a .235 wOBA allowed. We only need five here and it’s a decent sized favorite for a reason.
Bet – Over 4.5
The odds on this one aren’t great but that’s why we parlay everything and I frankly just don’t quite get this number.
Boyd has been horrendous to start the year. His 6.19 FIP is better than his 10.24 ERA but is minimal comfort for the Tigers LHP. His K rate has bottomed out from 30.2% last year to 18.8% this season. The walk rate is 8.3% and he’s given up a combined 14 earned in his past two starts.
Speaking of his last start, he faced these same White Sox and got steam rolled. Chicago is only at a 22.2% K rate on the season to LHP and Boyd has yet to hit seven in any start. With the White Sox being a top 10 offense to LHP, they have a good chance to get to him early and even if Boyd whiffs about one per inning, he’d have to pitch seven innings. I’m taking the under here.
Bet – Under 6.5
We’ve been picking on the A’s offense a little bit lately. That trend is going to continue tonight with Gallen.
My initial reaction was it’s a little high but upon reflection, I’m on board. I mean, we did just watch Kevin Gausman sit down 11 Oakland hitters. Gallen has faced a tough schedule so far and has come through in spades, including a K rate approaching 30%. It’s even better the RHH at 31.9% and six of nine projected A’s hitters are RHH. Five of those six are over a 22% K rate and I’m trusting the young righty for the D-Backs. If he’s an underdog, all the better.
Record – 35-28
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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