It’s Sunday, let’s mix in a little NHL to go with our football. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning.
11/13 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 6 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
San Jose Sharks (+185) at Minnesota Wild (-215) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Vancouver Canucks (+190) at Boston Bruins (-225) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Arizona Coyotes (+285) at New York Rangers (-345) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Washington Capitals (+150) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Winnipeg Jets (+125) at Seattle Kraken (-145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
11/13 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Tampa Bay One “Brayden Point ($7,000), Nikita Kucherov ($8,800), Brandon Hagel ($4,900)“
For a five-game slate, there are some top lines in terms of production on its face. However, only Tampa Bay’s top line has the sort of peripheral stats to suggest that the stat lines are sustainable. Darcy Kuemper has been solid in net, but he’s beatable. This game only has a six total but the Lightning are -175 home favorites. We also have a full top power-play correlation going for us.
On the flip side, you could side with one of the Rangers’ top two lines. However, the Coyotes like to slow games down, possibly limiting the upside. The Yotes actually enter this matchup with a better record in their last ten games than the Rangers. One of the top two Boston lines is an option here as well although their underlying metrics have been rather disappointing
11/13 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Seattle One “Alexander Wennberg ($3,800), Andre Burakovsky ($4,600), Oliver Bjorkstrand ($4,500)”
The contrarian line is where we make the money and I think I have something special here. This Kraken line is FIFTH IN THE NHL in SATF including all shots “blocked shots, missed shots”. However, I don’t think they will be getting a ton of love facing Winnipeg. After all, they only have three actual goals to show for their efforts and the Jets have a strong rep defensively. Most models won’t distinguish for goalie though.
Considering David Rittich with his .885 GAA should be in net, it is a huge bump for Seattle. Thankfully, Conor Hellebuyck who has been amazing for the Jets was in yesterday. The Kraken are -145 home favorites, so overall, this is a great spot for this line to show up. All three skaters on this line head up the top power-play unit.
Defensemen and Goalies
Defensemen
Josh Brown – Arizona – $3,200 – We need some cheap defensemen to make things work salary-wise. Brown fits that bill and has averaged eight DraftKings points per game this season. He is an every-night threat to hit the blocked shots bonus which is all we need here for this price.
Goalies
Linus Ullmark – Boston Bruins – $8,200 – Martin Jones is also in play here. However, Ullmark is the superior goaltender. His 1.95 GAA is outstanding and with Bruins -225 favorites, we are getting a little bit more win equity. I expect him to be chalk with some of the struggles Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy have had but that’s okay. Especially considering our lines are already a bit distinct.
11/13 NHL Best Bet
Washington Capitals (+150) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – Well take from the Sharp Model here, where Washington is showing as a +118 underdog instead thus offering 16.97% EV on the Moneyline EV, far and away popping above any other ML where only very nominal value is available. This can be our partial hedge against the Lightning top line.
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