Welcome back to the Sunday edition of the Hot Shot. If you had the Seattle Kraken’s 2% owned top line and 3.5% owned Justin Schultz last night, you probably made money. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning.
1/8 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Pittsburgh Penguins (-230) at Arizona Coyotes (+195) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Calgary Flames (-305) at Chicago Blackhawks (+255) – 6 Projected Goal Total
St. Louis Blues (-115) at Minnesota Wild (-105) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Toronto Maple Leafs (-205) at Philadelphia Flyers (+175) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Boston Bruins (-275) at Anaheim Ducks (+230) – 6 Projected Goal Total
1/8 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Toronto One “Auston Matthews ($9,000), William Nylander ($7,500), Michael Bunting ($5,200)“
I wrote them up last night and they disappointed but this seems like a double-down spot. It’s tempting to now turn to Pittsburgh, Calgary, or Boston out of emotion. That’s what I think most people will do, thus spreading ownership further. Give me the superior line for a bounceback in a 6.5 total game. In terms of peripheral numbers as of late, Toronto One has easily been the top line of those available tonight. They have been second in the NHL over the last ten games in terms of SATF, my favorite indicator of performance.
10-Day Sample Size – SATF “accounts for all shot attempts by line including missed and blocked shots”
1/8 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Calgary Three “Mikael Backlund ($4,900), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,900), Blake Coleman ($3,000)”
This line has been absolutely killing it as of late as illustrated above, where they are third in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games. People are more likely to turn to the Calgary top line if targeting that game and a host of lines on other teams. The Flames’ third line has a very tempting appeal. They will be contrarian, feature in a game their team is a -305 favorite, have tremendous peripheral stats as of late, and give us a bunch of salary relief. I’m not sure what else to add to that, just play Calgary Three!
Defenseman and Goalie
Defenseman
Calen Addison – Minnesota – $3,300 – I love honing in on cheap guys with offensive upside who are in the zone. Mr. Addison had a three-point game Wednesday night “one goal, two assists” and two assists last night. At this price, lock, and load.
Jeremy Swayman – Boston – $8,200 – It’s rare that I write up a backup goalie but ready to lean and sway with it with Swayman. He has a strong 2.63 GAA and a solid matchup against the hapless Ducks who only average 2.47 goals per game.
1/8 NHL Best Bet
Toronto Maple Leafs 60 Minute ML (-130) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – Once again we’re rolling with a pick that has tremendous EV in the Sharp Model.
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