Tonight, we have the first edition of the Hot Shot for 2024. We have a large slate with thirteen games and there are lots of options to choose from and we will cover a few of them below. Aside from reading this 1/4 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.
1/4 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Pittsburgh Penguins (+140) at Boston Bruins (-166) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Buffalo Sabres (-130) at Montreal Canadiens (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+310) at New York Rangers (-395) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Columbus Blue Jackets (+154) at Philadelphia Flyers (-185) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Vancouver Canucks (-135) at St. Louis Blues (+114) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Calgary Flames (+105) at Nashville Predators (-125) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Colorado Avalanche (+105) at Dallas Stars (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) at Minnesota Wild (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Islanders (-115) at Arizona Coyotes (-105) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Florida Panthers (+105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Ottawa Senators (+110) at Seattle Kraken (-130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Detroit Red Wings (+160) at Los Angeles Kings (-192) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Winnipeg Jets (-258) at San Jose Sharks (+210) – 6 Projected Goal Total
1/4 NHL Favorite Lines
Los Angeles One – “Anze Kopitar ($5,700), Trevor Moore ($5,900)” – TWO MAN ONLY
The Kings are in a good spot, -192 money line favorites in a 6.5 total matchup. However, with the top two lines recently mixed up, there’s a tough decision to make. One could even make an argument for the third line which cannot be said of many teams. Our first decision comes down to which center Anze Kopitar or Pierre Luc-Dubois for $2,200 less in salary. Kopitar is averaging a point per game (34 points in 34 games) whereas Dubois has failed to live up to prior seasons standards with 14 points in those same 34 games.
With Trevor Moore’s move up from the second to top line that sort of seals the deal for me how to approach this. Moore is having a career year with 17 goals to date matching his prior season high with plenty of games left to add to it. His $5,900 salary is very fair considering his upside. He has slowed down over his last two games but gets an exploitable matchup tonight.
New York Rangers Two – “Alexis LaFreniere ($4,200), Artemi Panarin ($8,500)” – TWO MAN ONLY
If betting on ownership, the Rangers should be the chalk of the slate. They are whopping -395 money line favorites hosting the Blackhawks, and this is where we will spend a little salary. You can remove any thoughts of a surprising season for the Blackhawks as only San Jose has been worse this season. Chicago will enter the night 2-7-1 over their last ten games, 140 goals allowed “third worst in the NHL” and recent highlights which include getting smoked 8-1 by the Dallas Stars. Turning back to the Rangers, none of their lines is riding hotter than the second line at the moment. They are second in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games.
Now turning to how to use this line, it gets a little trickier. Given that we already have Kopitar, I don’t think we’re that pressed to fill the second center spot. Vincent Trocheck has been good for $5,900 but has mainly been an assist man with only nine goals to his 24 assists. In his five of his last seven games, he’s scored under ten DraftKings points overall. I think we’re better off saving money with Alexis LaFreniere “they butchered his last name in this graphic above”. He has more goals “ten” than Trocheck and saves $1,700 in salary at $4,200. Overall, he provides us much more cost-efficient exposure to this line and this game.
Winnipeg One – ” Mark Scheifele ($6,800), Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,800)” TWO-MAN ONLY
Did someone say Sharks? Winnipeg’s top line is third among all NHL lines in SATF over the last ten games and has the potential for a huge game tonight. I don’t really think as tempting a matchup as this one is necessary to make you want to plug in Nikolaj Ehlers. He had a slow start to the season but has been compensating recently and is underpriced at the moment. Over his last nine games he’s averaging around four shots on goal per game and has a great chance for a big game tonight.
If it was possible, I wouldn’t mind using the streaky Gabriel Vilardi to fill things out; however, lineup restrictions just won’t allow it. Mark Scheifele’s numbers have been a bit overwhelming, but he is still averaging a point per game (36 in 36 games). He also fills our second center spot. He has been fairly cold over his last four games but may wake up tonight given that the Sharks have allowed the third most points to centers this season. Both Scheifele and Ehlers share additional correlation on the Jet’s first power-play unit.
1/4 NHL Defensemen and Goalie
Defensemen
Jordan Spence – Los Angeles -$2,700 – Our build only leaves $2,800 per defenseman so have to really slum it somewhere to make it all work. Spence is capable of putting up an assist on occasion “12 this season”. He also shares correlation with Trevor Moore on the King’s second power-play unit. For this price, we don’t need a whole lot more.
Will Borgen – Seattle – $2,800 – There’s many skaters in this range and little ability to distinguish one guy from the next. I think I will go with Borgen since he can get on the board a couple of ways. He has 14 points in 38 games so not horrific for a sub-$3,000 defenseman of his ilk. However, he also has the potential to block shots too to make up for things on the nights where he isn’t getting anything going at the other end.
Goalie
Jacob Markstrom – Calgary – $7,500 – We need to spend down at goalie tonight in order to fit our build so that’s one consideration. The fact we can do that and grab a goalie from one of the six total games and from only a slight underdog helps. Markstrom has been spectacular over his last seven games since returning from the IR with a .936 save percentage. His .265 GAA on the season is also stellar, my only concern here is shot volume but there’s a few other ways he can compensate for that.
1/4 NHL Best Bet
Florida ML – (+105) – DraftKings – A rematch of the finals as Florida returns to what was a house of horrors for them. However, the Panthers come in riding a five-game win streak and will be motivated to make amends at plus money odds.
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