Welcome back to the Hot Shot. I hope everyone enjoyed a terrific holiday weekend and now we bring you seasons tidings this week in the form of an eleven-game NHL DFS slate. The full breakdown of the Thursday Night NHL slate can be found below in what is the last Hot Shot of 2022. Aside from reading the article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning.
12/29 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings and are accurate as of the time of writing*
Detroit Red Wings (+130) at Buffalo Sabres (-150) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Montreal Canadiens (+225) at Florida Panthers (-265) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Rangers (+125) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Columbus Blue Jackets (+200) at New York Islanders (-240) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Ottawa Senators (+140) at Washington Capitals (-165) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+215) at St. Louis Blues (-255) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Dallas Stars (+100) at Minnesota Wild (-120) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Vancouver Canucks (+135) at Winnipeg Jets (-155) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Toronto Maple Leafs (-265) at Arizona Coyotes (+225) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Los Angeles Kings (+125) at Colorado Avalanche (-145) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Philadelphia Flyers (+140) at San Jose Sharks (-165) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
12/29 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Buffalo One “Tage Thompson ($8,800), Jeff Skinner ($6,900), Alex Tuch ($6,800)“
The Red Wings will arrive in Buffalo on the second leg of a road back-to-back. This line has been lighting it up lately with nine goals over their last ten games, tying them for second among all lines in the NHL. Their 95 SATF is good for tenth best in the NHL during that span, so not quite as great. However, this is a plus matchup. Detroit comes in one point up on the Sabres in the standings despite Buffalo’s +27 better differential. As of the time of writing, the Red Wings have allowed at least four goals in five straight games. All this said, the Sabre’s top line should be a little chalky but for good reason. They are expensive so I don’t mind a two-man stack with Thompson and either/or.
10-Day Sample Size – Actual Goals/Goals Followed “GF”
Honorable Mention: San Jose “Either of the top two lines”– The Sharks will be facing this Samuel Ersson “whatever/whoever that is” in the opposing net. Ersson looks terrible!
12/29 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Ottawa Two “Drake Batherson ($6,300), Alex DeBrincat ($7,300), Shane Pinto ($4,400)”
Ottawa comes in a +140 road dog in a 6 total matchup against the Caps. So on an eleven-game slate, I think it’s safe to say people won’t exactly be lining up to roster the Sens’ second line. However, the line in the reverse fixture a week ago was set at 6.5 so the 6 total might turn out to be an overreaction to the 3-2 last time out and the Capitals’ win streak/recent defensive display. Furthermore, this line is tied for seventh in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games with 105. The two far more expensive skaters on the line feature on Ottawa’s top power-play unit so are key. They won’t fit in terms of salary with the chalk line listed above but make for a solid flier to build around in a large field tournament.
10-Day Sample Size – SATF “accounts for all shot attempts by line including missed and blocked shots”
Defenseman and Goalies
Defenseman
Erik Gustafsson – Washington – $3,900 – I’m a sucker for value, and with John Carlson out, the former Blackhawk Erik Gustafsson gives us a bit. He is quarterbacking the Washington power play in John Carlson’s absence so can grab some apples off of Ovi quite easily. He sets up as a part of a game stack with the contrarian Ottawa line mentioned above. He has double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five which include two monster outputs “43.3 hat trick, 32.4”.
Goalies
Matt Murray – Toronto – $8,400 – The Toronto goaltender seems like the cash play with his 2.34 GAA, .925 save %, and matchup against the Coyotes. That said he’s probably not a high-upside GPP play due to a potential lack of shot volume.
Craig Anderson -Buffalo- $7,800 – It should be an upbeat battle with the Red Wings and the Sabres are -150 home favorites. There’s potential for the best of both worlds here. Mr. Anderson has strong numbers with a 2.65 GAA and .922 save %. and is one game removed from a 40-save shutout, so in solid form at the moment.
12/29 NHL Best Bet
Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 (-125) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – The Islanders tend to play up or down to their opponents. Give me the points here.
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