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Welcome back for another installment of the Friday Night Forecheck here at Win Daily Sports! After a somewhat brutal schedule this week, we are finally given a decent, yet small, four game slate. Since yesterday was a massive 13 game slate, tonight will feature five of the eight teams playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. We have a couple of very interesting spots tonight, and we will try to nail down the best spots on the slate. Good luck!
Goalies
Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins: The goalie spot tonight looks pretty rough, and it is going to be tough to find the top play. Surprisingly, the Pitt/Vegas game looks to be the lowest scoring on the slate, based on the way that both teams are playing recently. Pittsburgh should win this game, as Vegas has been struggling, and is also pretty banged up. Their lineup is far from their normal, so Jarry looks like a decent play tonight.
High Risk GPP Goalie Pick – Thatcher Demko – Vancouver Canucks: This is the only other goalie that looks interesting tonight, and that’s a stretch! The Canucks host the Caps tonight, who have been playing well and getting healthy. This is a risky, risky play, but on home ice, it’s worth a look. The shot volume should be there, and if Demko can keep them in check, this could be a sneaky good play.
Other Goalie Notes: With all but two teams on the slate scoring 3 or more goals per game over their last five, this is not a good goalie slate. On four games, you can certainly correlate your goalie with your stacks when building. When it comes to other goalie options, you can consider Semyon Varlamov from the Islanders, but his numbers are pretty ugly recently. You can make a case for Laurent Brossoit from Vegas, but keep in mind, the team in front of him is very banged up right now. Kaapo Kahkonen for Minnesota is an interesting play, but keep in mind, Columbus has been scoring at home, so he runs risky as well. As you can see, all goalies come with a considerable amount of risk tonight, with Jarry/Demko feeling like the better of the plays.
Lines to Build Around
These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Minnesota Wild 1 – Ryan Hartman/Kirill Kaprizov/Mats Zuccarello/Jared Spurgeon: The Wild head to Columbus tonight to face the Blue Jackets and Elvis Merzlikins. This is a FANTASTIC matchup for this line, and arguably the best matchup on the slate. Lately, Columbus has been matching their top line to the opposing top line, with the Kuraly line taking the second line matchup duties. That matchup should set up this line for plenty of chances, and they should be able to take advantage of a poor defensive team in Columbus. Give Alex Goligoski a look as a value defender who correlates with this line.
Winnipeg Jets 2 – Pierre-Luc Dubois/Kyle Connor/Evgeny Svechnikov/Josh Morrissey: With how Varlamov has been playing, Winnipeg looks to be in a really good spot. This second line should see a majority of the top Islander line in what is a very plus matchup. Expect this line to be lower owned, and the upside is very, very nice. A Kyle Connor anytime scorer prop is currently +115 on DraftKings Sportsbook and is worth a look.
Vancouver Canucks 1 – J.T. Miller/Brock Boeser/Tanner Pearson/Quinn Hughes: Thanks to some unique line matching trends, this top line should see the second line for the Caps for a majority of the night. Throw in the fact that Samsonov looks to get the start for the Caps tonight, and this is a recipe for success for this line on home ice. The second Caps line has been bleeding high danger chances and they have a higher than normal expected goals against per 60 (3.00). This line could be super sneaky with a ton of upside.
High Risk Lines
These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Minnesota Wild 2 – Frederick Gaudreau/Kevin Fiala/Matthew Boldy: That top line is in a great spot for Minnesota, but this second line cannot be ignored. They have a very good matchup as well, against the bottom part of the Columbus lineup. Look for these guys to continue to stay hot, and it really depends on your lineup build and which way you end up with Minnesota.
New York Islanders 1 – Brock Nelson/Anthony Beauvillier/Anders Lee/Noah Dobson: This line should see the likes of the second Winnipeg line mentioned above. The Isles are a more defensive minded team, which tends to limit their DFS upside, but this line is in a good spot and just had a great night. They have a chance to repeat that tonight, with the Jets coming to town. Hellebuyck has been bad for the Jets, and this game should flirt with going over the total of 6, unless Hellebuyck decides to show up.
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 – Evgeni Malkin/Evan Rodrigues/Danton Heinen: This second Pitt line should see a mix of the depth lines for Vegas tonight, and they should have the upper hand there. The scoring recently for the Pens has been somewhat spread out, and this game appears like it might be on the lower end as far as totals for the night, but this line could surprise us. It’s also why this one comes in as risky. PIT1 is in consideration as well, as you can see below in honorable mentions. You can use Marcus Pettersson or John Marino as value D men to correlate with this line.
Honorable Mentions: CBJ2, PIT1, WSH1
Value Options – DraftKings
Center: Frederick Gaudreau ($3500) – Minnesota Wild
Wing: Danton Heinen ($2700) – Pittsburgh Penguins
Defense: Adam Pelech ($3600) – New York Islanders
Value Options – FanDuel
Center: Evan Rodrigues ($4900) – Pittsburgh Penguins
Wing: Evgeny Svechnikov ($4000) – Winnipeg Jets
Defense: Marcus Pettersson ($4000) – Pittsburgh Penguins
Cash Considerations – DraftKings
Center: J.T. Miller – Vancouver Canucks
Wing: Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets
Defense: Jared Spurgeon – Minnesota Wild
Goalie: Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins
Cash Considerations – FanDuel
Center: J.T. Miller – Vancouver Canucks
Wing: Kyle Connor – Winnipeg Jets
Defense: Jared Spurgeon – Minnesota Wild
Goalie: Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins
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All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and any advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
