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Friday 12/31 NHL Breakdown
Welcome back to Win Daily Sports’ Friday Night Forecheck! Happy New Year’s Eve, everyone! We hope you have a great time tonight ringing in 2022 with your friends and loved ones! Please be safe and smart tonight. Here’s wishing you and yours a very happy and healthy new year. Maybe we can ring in ’22 with some green!
A couple of notes before we get started – this slate starts at 1pm Eastern and runs throughout the day on DraftKings. On FanDuel, there is only a 2 game main slate that starts at 7pm Eastern. Because of this, plus the COVID situations, it is absolutely IMPERATIVE that you keep up with the news. The games in the afternoon will be over by the time the evening games start, so be sure to keep an eye on all of your news sources through the day.
Goalies
Laurent Brossoit – Vegas Golden Knights: The Knights face the Ducks at home tonight, and the Ducks have been terrible on the road of late, scoring just 1.8 goals per game, converting a measly 5.8% of their shots. Brossoit has been solid, but he isn’t perfect. Expect him to give up a couple, especially with the Knights dealing yet again with health issues, but he should be considered a ‘safe’ play.
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning: Vas should be returning from a COVID protocol stint, as the Lightning host the Rangers. The Lightning are on a back-to-back, but the game was against their neighbor, the Panthers, so the travel really should not affect them. They did, however, get absolutely smoked, so the Lightning should have something to prove tonight. The return of Vasilevskiy should be a nice boost to the club, and what’s even better is the shot volume should be there for upside.
Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – John Gibson – Anaheim Ducks: This pick is interesting, as the Ducks travel to Vegas to take on the Knights. The reasoning behind this pick is simple – the Knights are banged up. Outside of the second line, they should struggle to score. The worry here is that Gibson on the road is not as good as he is at home. If the Ducks can shut down that second line, then this could be a sneaky spot for a Ducks win. If he starts, he is worth a look, but if Stolarz gets the nod, then this spot becomes a lot less appealing. Consider a pivot to Igor Shesterkin as a GPP option. Mike Smith can also be considered, and carries some risk because he may not be 100% recovered from his injury.
Lines to Build Around
These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
Washington Capitals 1 – Evgeny Kuznetsov/Alex Ovechkin/Tom Wilson/John Carlson: The Caps have a FANTASTIC matchup tonight against the Detroit Red Wings. The Wings match the Larkin line to the opposing top line, and that sets this line up for a potentially huge night. The entire Caps lineup is in a good spot, so consider a power play mix n match with these guys. They should carry ownership, but it could be surprisingly limited since they are the late game on the slate.
Edmonton Oilers Power Play – Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl/Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/Zach Hyman/Tyson Barrie: The Oilers head to New Jersey to take on the Devils in the afternoon game, and that is a great spot for this unit. Stacking the power play gets you access to the top two lines, who should see the depth lines for Jersey at even strength. We all know how lethal this unit can be, and today should be no different.
High Risk Lines
These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).
New Jersey Devils 3 – Dawson Mercer/Andreas Johnsson/Janne Kuokkanen/Damon Severson: Right on the other side of the Edmonton game, we have this very intriguing matchup. This third line should take on the Draisaitl line at even strength, which sets them up very nicely. The Draisaitl line is giving up 12.78 high danger chances against per 60, while this line generates 17.26 high danger chances for per 60. Edmonton has been known to give up goals, and this line will be overlooked. From a narrative standpoint, afternoon games can get a little weird, so with Edmonton traveling East for an early game, this is a very interesting spot.
Vegas Golden Knights 2 – William Karlsson/Jonathan Marchessault/Reilly Smith/Dylan Coghlan: As mentioned earlier, the Knights are banged up. Because of this, the second line is going to have to take on the bulk of the scoring responsibility. They have a decent matchup against the Ducks, and Vegas loves playing on home ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play – Steven Stamkos/Brayden Point/Alex Killorn/Ondrej Palat/Victor Hedman: The Lightning play host to the Rangers tonight, and they should be energized with the (hopeful) return of Vasilevskiy. On top of that, losing badly to the Panthers should give them something to prove, so they could come out on fire against the Rangers. The other school of thought is that they are tired, Vas is tired and/or rusty, and they end up putting up another dud, which is exactly why they are high risk. You can definitely make a decision between the Lightning and the Rangers in this spot, but based on recent data, the Lightning edge them out a bit. Either way, this game should be high event, and it is likely that you will need some pieces from this game. Note – if Vasilevskiy does NOT go, then this spot becomes the Rangers, especially if Lagace or a different backup that isn’t Elliott gets the nod.
Honorable mentions: ANH2, WSH3, NYRPP, DET1
Value Options – DraftKings
Center: Ross Colton ($2700) – Tampa Bay Lightning – top line value alongside Stamkos and Palat
Wing: Evgenii Dadonov ($3500) – Vegas Golden Knights – make sure he is active, but he cleared COVID protocol, and with Pacioretty out, he could move to the top line
Defense: Damon Severson ($3600) – New Jersey Devils – he has been logging heavy minutes, and at $3600, his production is plenty to pay off
Value Options – FanDuel
Center: Ross Colton ($5000) – Tampa Bay Lightning
Wing: Tom Wilson ($5300) – Washington Capitals
Defense: Moritz Seider ($5400) – Detroit Red Wings
Cash Considerations – DraftKings
Leon Draisaitl – C- Edmonton Oilers
Alex Ovechkin – W – Washington Capitals
Victor Hedman – D – Tampa Bay Lightning
Laurent Brossoit – G – Vegas Golden Knights
Cash Considerations – FanDuel
It is NOT recommended to play cash lineups on FanDuel, as it is only a 2 game slate.
Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/
All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.
