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FREE Week 1 NFL Prop Pick

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The weather’s cooling down, the leaves are changing color and I’m withdrawing tons of cash from the MLBMA betting account. This can only mean one thing; The NFL season is upon us. I developed a brand new program to bring you a FREE Week 1 NFL Prop Pick, found exclusively at windailysports.com. Make sure to regularly check my author page https://windailysports.com/author/mlbmovingavg/ for new breakdowns, plays and additions to the weekend’s bet slip. Thanks so much for subscribing, interacting and following along on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg.

Make sure to sign up for our FANDUEL WEEK ONE FREEROLL https://www.fanduel.com/windaily!

FREE Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Focus: WR Allen Robinson

Image result for wikimedia commons chicago bears allen robinson
Courtesy of https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/one_player_each_nfl_team_needs_to_step_up_this_season/s1__29630792

Game Log – A.Robinson

WR Stats – A.Robinson

TgtTgt/GmRecRec/Gm Ctch%YdsYd/GmYd/Rec Yd/Tgt
947.23554.258.5%75458.013.78.0

WR Alignment – A.Robinson

QB Game Log & Stats: Mitchell Trubisky

Opposing 2018 Defensive Ranks Entering Week 1: Green Bay

  • Overall Total Defense – 22nd
  • Plays Run Against – 21st
  • Total Yards – 18th
  • Defensive Passing DVOA – 25th

2018 Defense by WR type:

vs. #1 WRvs. #2 WR
TeamTgt/GYd/GTgt/GYd/G
GB8.874.56.266.2
NFL7.868.16.149.5

Individual CB Alignment

PlayerLeft CBRight CBSlot CB
K.King90.28%0.69%7.64%
J.Alexander49.58%24.24%24.65%
T.Williams2.49%32.97%18.43%
T.Brown52.57%39.71%5.51%

Individual CB Success Rate

PlayerTrgRecComp %
K.King211047.62%
J.Alexander724663.89%
T.Williams532750.94%
T.Brown382257.89%

FREE Week 1 NFL Prop Pick: A. Robinson OVER 4.5 Catches (+100)

I’m going to use $100 as a benchmark for everyone to follow. However, my personal written strategy is a bit more complex when it comes to risk management. I’ve added alternate strategies and some advanced game theories to the bottom of these articles. Since the freight here is relatively small and I’m allergic to juice, the most simple attack plan is to bet our risk unit (R) on the O 4.5 (+100). This bet yields $100 (P/L 100.0%).

Image result for million dollar man wwf gif

REMEMBER TO NEVER BET BEYOND YOUR ALLOTTED RISK TOLERANCE. PERSONALLY, I NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1% OF MY TOTAL STACK ON A SINGLE EVENT. EVER.

DON’T TILT AND DON’T CHASE. WE IDENTIFY HIGH PROBABILITY OUTCOMES AND ATTACK WITH A VERY STRICT AND REGIMENTED PLAN. PERIOD.

FREE Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Breakdown:

The Bears will be looking to make a statement tonight as they attempt to take that next step forward in competing for more than just the division. Mitchell is far from a gunslinger but showed signs of improvement towards the end of last season, posting +70% completion percentages in each of his final three regular season games. He also posted a few huge games throughout the year, so we know the potential is there. We also can’t forget that T.Burton is questionable for the game. I’m hoping he serves as a decoy, opening up more space for A-Rob.

The 2019 Packer secondary was average at best and will be dealing with the absence of Bashaud Breeland. Green Bay struggled with the run in 2018, and I believe that will be the center of their defensive focus tonight. That extra man spying Montgomery & Cohen should provide ample space for Robinson to work.

Packer DBs boast below average completion against percentages, so the door is open for Robinson to hit this mark easily. He closed out 2018 with at least 5 catches in four of his last five regular season games.

Green Bay allowed the second most targets per game to the WR1 last year (8.8), and the fifth most yards per game (74.5). The Pack allowed the tenth most targets per game to the WR2 (6.2) and second most yards (66.2). This bodes well for Allen tonight, having the ability to play at any of the WR positions.

This play should be game script independent. Whether this turns out to be a shootout or a dogfight, there’s a great chance that A-Rob is featured tonight to create room to run. This could easily cash in the first half, which brings me to a very important tip on betting props.

An Alternate Approach to Week 1 NFL Prop Pick Strategy (Based on $100 Risk):

Anyone who follows my work or knows me personally will tell you I’m driven by profit, I think outside the box & I’m a stickler for every percentage point. Sometimes in life you have to be more aggressive with your approach. The key is to do it without increasing risk. Sure, the easy way to attack today’s play is to bet our $100 on O 4.5 Recpts (+100) for a return of $100 (100%, which is excellent!).

However, I sometimes like to try and maximize the potential on my wagers a bit more. We can accomplish this by scaling our bet, without changing that initial overall risk. I provide a very specific example below using tonight’s live lines.

A Closer Look at Weighted Plays

Using that same $100, we can spread out our chips in an attempt to maximize the exponential payout that comes with extra production. I always do the math to look for an edge.

For example:

BetPayProfit% P/L
O 4.5 (+100)$70.00$70.00$40.0040.00%
O 5.5 (+127)$20.00$25.59$85.5985.59%
O 6.5 (+216)$10.00$21.60$117.19117.19%

In this example, potential profit doesn’t shift in enough of a favorable manner to weigh this play. We’d have to hit the goal of seven grabs, only to gain an extra ~25% profit. The move tonight is to bet your allotted risk on the O 4.5 (+100). SPOILER ALERT: There will be plays this Sunday where weighing our play will be mathematically advantageous so make sure to check back.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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