Week 11 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones took down the Week 8 Monday Night Showdown which is the fourth time he has won it the past five contests.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here
I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys.
Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary.
That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.
The NFL DFS Week 11 Thursday Night Showdown Picks
MVP: James Conner ($14,500 FD)
The best way to attack this game is targeting high volume players against the Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns have given up four more rushing touchdowns than the Steelers this year and about 300 more yards through the air. On a one game slate, that is enough to put me on the Steelers main guy James Conner. He is healthy now and will be trusted with the majority of touches outside of QB Mason Rudolph. Before getting injured Conner had over 20 FD points in three of his last four games. That is admittedly against very easy competition, but the Browns also fall into that category as well. He runs and catches and if he does not get hobbled again, or lose too many touches to Jaylen Samuels, he will have the highest opportunity to score outside of my first MVP pivot listed below.
MVP Pivot: Mason Rudolph ($14,500 FD)
While he is not the most accurate quarterback in the NFL he is the best we have on this slate. The Browns D can be beat through the air or on the ground. Rudolph has two capable running backs that catch passes, which gives him a boost. If you think JuJu or Johnson is going to have a big game, that also means Rudolph will too. You do not have to get too cute at MVP on FanDuel. Just pick the guys with the ball in their hands the most which gives them an opportunity to continueously put up point for four quarters.
MVP Pivot 2: Nick Chubb ($14,000 FD)
I want to give you a pivot to my favorite Brown. I will not have much of him but if I am going with anyone from Cleveland it’s Chubb. His ownership should be lower than normal because the Steelers should win this game. Also, people will be scared of Kareem Hunt taking up too much usage. Hunt was used primarily as a pass catcher last week and that probably continues tonight. Chubb is one of the fastest backs in the NFL and can make a play from nothing. Freddie Kitchens should try and establish a run game early here because how difficult it has become lately to throw on the Steelers thanks in great part to Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Punt MVP pivot: Jaylen Samuels
I think he has a chance if the game gets out of hand or if Conners goes down with injury.
Flex Options:
Listed in order of preference, with price factored in.
- Mason Rudolph ($14,500) see above
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($10,500 FD) Nice price for the Steelers top receiving option. This time last year he would be one of the most expensive guys to roster.
- Steelers Defensive (on DraftKings)
- Nick Chubb ($14,500 FD) see above
- Jaylen Samuels ($10,000 FD) I believe he will still be pretty involved with this offense, even with Conner back. I don’t mind playing them on the same team. As far as pairing them both with Rudolph, it actually makes sense tonight as they both catch passes. That would not be my first option, but I know I will have some team with both RBs and the QB.
- Jarvis Landry ($12,000 FD) Ranking him higher than OBJ because he will see less Minkah Fitzpatrick and I expect the Brown to need to throw in the second half. I dont think he gets in the end zone again, but will be targeted heavily
- Chris Boswell ($9,500 FD) Steelers Kicker
- OBJ ($11,500 FD) Maybe he finally gets one tonight…He is the most talented receiver not he field.
- Baker Mayfield ($15,500 FD) He is going to get sacked a bunch and picked off but he is also the QB of the team that is going to need to throw it.
- Kareem Hunt ($9,000 FD) I like him better on DK because of the one point PPR structure. He will be involved tonight. I don’t think I want him and Chubb on the same team.
- James Washington ($9,500 FD) He has been coming on the past couple of weeks for a combined 150 yards and a touchdown. If you play more than one WR from Pitt you will want Rudolph in the MVP spot.
- Diontee Johnson ($8,500 FD) Washington has been the preferred target lately but things change quick in the NFL. He is starting and will be the lowest owned WR for the Steelers.
- Rashard Higgins ($6,000 FD) This is really cheap for the starting Browns WR. A lot of interest in him tonight.
- Ricky Seals-Jones ($8,000 FD) He is beat up, make sure he is 100% before locking him in. If he is out I have a lot of interest in Demetrius Harris.
- Demetrius Harris ($6,500 FD) Cheap pivot at TE on the Browns.
- UPDATE:Waived today Antonio Callaway ($6,000 FD) Boom or bust Browns deep threat. More concerned with Baker getting him the ball than him catching it. DO NOT PLAY
- Vance McDonald ($7,500 FD) Steeler’s TE
- Austin Seibert ($9,000 FD) Browns Kicker, game script is not in his favor.
I did my research on FanDuel today.
Punts Listed in order
All the punts are pretty gross tonight. Both the Steelers and Browns tend to lean on their starters heavily. Be careful with these guys. I am not very high on them, but they should see the field.
- Nick Vanett ($5,000 FD) Back up Steelers TE. I dont want him in the same lineup as Vance McDonald.
- Damion Ratley ($5,000 FD) Punt Brown reciever
- KhaDarel Hodge ($5,000 FD) He should be subbing in for Higgins. Very high risk
- Johnny Holton ($5,000 FD) Huge receiver punt. If I make 150 lineups I might put him in five.
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I like to take big swings.. If you don’t want to try and get lucky with me tonight, pick your favorite two. My favorite two would be Rudolph over and OBJ under.
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