Week 1 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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I want to start off the NFL DFS article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entires in these contests, if you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top eight guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys.
As far as MVP goes, I tend to want to get someone in the mid-range for a few reasons. Lower ownership and someone besides the top studs are going to have to produce. I have played a lot of these NFL DFS contests (Including the Showdown Slate Championship on DraftKings last year) and I can tell you they are very difficult to predict.
Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary.
That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my expansive NFL DFS player pool below. Here are my quick thoughts on each player.
The Player Pool
Tom Brady: It’s Tom Brady. He is the GOAT. He will get his.
Ben Roethlisberger: Has legit number one receiver in JuJu and great secondary options. Can also dump it down to Conner.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: In love with is talent. Steelers top WR. The problem is Bill Bellichick has been prepping for him all offseason.
James Conner: Had a breakout season last year. Can run and can catch. Safe.
Sony Michel: The Pats best back, but in NFL DFS that Patriots backs may be the hardest single thing to predict. He has the talent to take every snap on another team, but that’s not his current situation.
Julian Edelman: Brady’s favorite target. He might just explode with the news of Antonio Brown coming to town next week to take some of his targets. Like him a lot this week.
James White: The Pats pass catching back. I hate to be redundant but New England backs are impossible to predict. If you are doing multiple lineups pick a different Patriots back in each lineup, because one is going to get a lot of work.
Josh Gordon: Is Josh Gordon still in his prime? I doubt it, but he does have Tom Brady throwing to him and he is an athletic freak. We all remember Josh Gordon going absolutely nuts, but that was a long time ago. He is the WR2.
Stephen Gostkowski: Patriots Kicker. Like the price.
Vance McDonald: Steelers breakout TE candidate
James Washington: Pitt WR3 just behind Donte Moncrief. Still developing chemistry with the offense. Boom or Bust.
Chris Boswell: Pitt Kicker. Steelers like to go for two point conversion a little too often for me.
Donte Moncrief: Love him. Steelers WR2.
Damien Harris: Pats RB3. Probably not. Worth a dart, I guess, if you are making A LOT of lineups. I will not have him.
Jaylen Samuels: Steelers backup RB. A little banged up. Don’t love it.
Demaryius Thomas: Questionable tag.
Phillip Dorsett: Long shot Pats WR. Had some chemistry with Brady last year. Like him a lot if Thomas misses.
Rex Burkhead: Same as Damien Harris. Hard to predict with Bill Belichick will do. I am going to fade.
Matt LaCosse: Pats TE with ankle injury. Questionable.
Ryan Izzo: Pats only TE option is LaCosse misses. Cheap.
The NFL DFS Picks
MVP: Donte Moncrief: ($8,000 FD; $6,200 DK) When you play the Patriots they do their best to take out your top option (JuJu) which opens up room for the secondary options. Moncrief has been getting a lot of hype in the offseason and is now ready to take on the roll in the Steelers offense that JuJu had, and produced with, before AB left town. You can definitely pay down at MVP on showdown slates.
NFL DFS Safe Flex Options: (listed in order of preference)
- James Conner: ($14,000 FD; $10,800 DK) He is just safe. He is going to get work on the ground and through the air just like last year. I’ll have him on both sites but he will score more on DK because of the PPR structure.
- Julian Edelman ($13,000 FD; $9,600 DK) Patriots Top WR. Target monster. Reliable. Nothing not to like. Lock him in and get weird somewhere else
- Patriots RBs: Pick Sony or White, not both. I lean Sony here but White is cheaper and you might need the extra cash if you have Conner and Edelman.
- Vance McDonald ($9,800 FD; $6,000 DK): Breakout candidate at Tight End that will just have to beat one man or get open in the zone. McDonald has a nice season last year with a couple breakout performance. He is the main guy now and not as risky as you might think.
- Tom Brady ($15,000 FD; $10,800 DK): He is going to get his points. He is just the most expensive. If it is a shootout that means other people are scoring too. If it is low scoring rostering the highest priced player will hurt you. If you have the salary room, put him in.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($14,500; $11,000 DK) I think the Patriots blanket him, but that doesn’t mean he won’t come down with 5 or 6 catches with as much as he is getting targeted. He will be the top redone threat as well.
NFL DFS Cheap
- Ryan Izzo ($5,000 FD; $200 DK (WoW) Very real chance he is the only healthy TE on the Patriots. If LaCosse is out, put Izzo in. Watch out for the news leading up to the game
- Stephen Gostkowski ($10,000 FD; $3,400 DK (much better on DK): If the Patriots aren’t converting touchdowns, in comes Gostkowski.
- Phillip Dorsett ($6,500 FD; $3,800 DK) If Thomas is out or limited, Dorsett is a phenomenal punt.
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Tom Brady featured image via Andrew Campbell.
