Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home NFL DFS fans! This week, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NFL DFS picks for this week’s main slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NFL DFS article each and every week is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Thanksgiving Day Slate
As a kid, it was always logical that birthdays and Christmas were my favorite “holidays” – I mean you wake up and get presents, what more could you ask for?
As an adult (well at least in age), there is no day I look forward to more than Thanksgiving – food, family, and all-day football – what more could you ask for?
Do you know what makes this even better? Our Black Friday deal is simply out of control with EVERYTHING at Win Daily being 50% off – you can get a monthly all-access Gold membership for just $15 or lock in a year for just 50 cents a day or $180 for the year. Seriously – do not miss this. With the NBA just weeks away – there is no better time to join.
While this Thanksgiving may be a but unique due to the continued pandemic, the one constant will be non-stop DFS for us to tilt and a great three game NFL DFS slate that sets up perfectly for tournament play.
This 3 game main slate will force us to make some critical NFL DFS Picks decisions right off the bat – with game environments that will push optimal plays at high ownership – and that all begins with what to do with DeShaun Watson ($7.4K) as the top QB and arguably top overall play against the Detroit Lions.
Watson is the highest projected scoring player in our AETT Model at Win Daily Sports and as other staff have argued here – this is a do not get cute spot for me. The question is not whether to play Watson – it is how you build around him that will make all the difference.
From a macro level, the Texans-Lions game with a 51 game total is the best pure game environment to attack as we not only have the highest Vegas total but we also have a game with two top 12 teams in terms of pace.
With this being just a 3 game slate, I think going with overloaded stacks is a viable strategy to differentiate yourself versus those who play it more traditional with their stacking. As such – I love the idea of going “all-in” with a Texans aerial attack – pairing Watson with Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks and Jordan Akins.
Now, none of these plays in isolation will be sneaky – Fuller and Cooks are projected to be two of the highest owned plays on the entire slate – but the more pieces you add to this stack the more the cumulative ownership on the Texans will decrease.
Taking this one step further – if you are going to overload on Texans than you are predicting a game script in which Watson and company are in a high scoring and close affair that pushes them to their ceiling – and that means the Detroit Lions run back is critical.
Now figuring out the preferred Lions is not as easy due to injury concerns with Kenny Golladay trending towards missing this game while TJ Hockenson and De’Andre Swift are looking more likely to suit up. If we are going with a four or three man Texans stack, then running it back with two Lions skill players will be at the core of my tournament strategy,
As Adam Strangis pointed out in his Game by Game breakdown – running back is THE spot to attack this Texans defense and so Swift would be a priority run back with either Jones or Hockenson as the secondary play based on your roster construction.
One way to really get different on this slate – stack up both offenses…and wait for it – use either the Texans or Lions DST.
Now, typically using a DST against offenses we are stacking is a “fish move” as the kids say – but I think on this small slate it becomes a really interesting strategy for a few reasons.
First and foremost is salary – these two defenses are the cheapest options on DraftKings and I am a huge believer in never paying for defense – in fact, my typical strategy is to build my lineup and simply fit in whatever DST is left.
Secondly, if we are playing a game script of fast pace and high scoring, that would also result in turnovers or DST scores due to the “shoot-out” nature of the game.
Think about it – the Ravens/Steelers are the “best” defense options on the slate because of the slow pace game environment and low projected points but that game also will mean far fewer chances are taken. If you are playing those defenses – you are playing more for the “points allowed” score in your DFS lineups – whereas if you go with the Texans or Lions DST, you are willing to give up the points allowed for the upside that would exist with a pick 6 or special teams touchdown.
The afternoon slate on Sunday actually showed us a path to how this could work if you need some tangible evidence. The Chargers offense went off for ceiling games with Herbert (30), Allen (34) and Henry (15) all hitting for big scores and you could have run it back with the Jets DST at $2K – who returned 4x value at minimim price due to a fumble recovery, blocked kick and a safety.
Rather than see them as a contra play against your stack – use one of these DST’s as part of your stack – assuming we get scoring from not just the offense but also the defense in this high total game.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
This three-game slate is going to have some clear chalk paths so simply telling you to play Watson isn’t going to cut it. “Pivoting” to the Dallas/Washington game and using Zeke, Gibson or McLaurin is not actually a pivot in the sense that ownership is nearly identical to the Texans/Lions.
It also does not mean you have to get crazy and play the “off the wall” plays – in fact, I would argue the total opposite. Play the “right plays” and let those who fade them pay the rake – also, instead of picking which ONE player you want in a stack – pick ALL of them.
Take your stand with games versus players.
Assume the Texans offense ALL goes off and you get every pairing alongside Watson to maximize his DFS output versus simply taking only Fuller OR Cooks.
Go all-in. Take a stand. Grab a beer and some turkey and let’s eat!
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
Oh and by the way, we have a massive Black Friday deal coming – so stay tuned!
Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
