NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 8

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. It was a strange week of scoring in Week 7 for NFL DFS GPP lineups but we can right the ship this Sunday. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 8
1. Kansas City Chiefs – 25.67
2. Green Bay Packers – 23.60
3. Seattle Seahawks – 23.45
4. San Francisco 49ers – 23.33
5. Los Angeles Rams – 22.28

*Great tool for evaluating DFS stacks and what offenses are likely to score the most via touchdowns (no special teams included)*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson – There are a ton of weather concerns this week, so I’ll likely be avoiding most of those games as a whole. I’m going to be heavily invested in this afternoon hammer when the 49ers go into Seattle to face Wilson and the boys.
   
   This game has the highest total on the board (by far) and zero weather concerns at the moment. Wilson is the #1 quarterback in the AETY Model as well. There are so many ways to stack this game up and you know where all of the production is going.
   
   On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo is also a great play (and likely to be the chalkiest QB on the slate). I don’t care what ownership is for this game, I’ll be overweight in every possible way. Play Wilson naked, play him with Metcalf, play him with Lockett, or play him with both.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   Metcalf/Lockett
   Metcalf/Lockett/Aiyuk
   Metcalf/Lockett/Kittle/Aiyuk
   Metcalf/Lockett/Aiyuk/Bourne
   Metcalf/Lockett/Kittle/Bourne
   
   *Don’t forget, Tevin Coleman is active. Feel free to toss him into your west coast game stacks as well if you need the savings.
   
2. Patrick Mahomes – The best quarterback in the NFL against the worst defense in the NFL. Yes, the spread in this game is out of control and likely leads to a Kansas City blowout, but I trust Mahomes and this offense so much that I’m fine with stacking them (if we only get to see them for three quarters) before the second string comes in.
   
   There are plenty of cheap options on the other side to run it back with, but I’m not sure you want to have a lot of KC/NYJ game stacks out there. A sub-10% owned Mahomes on a weird slate is something that just seems right.
   
   Like Russ, you can play Mahomes naked, single stacked, double stacked, and game stacked. Kelce is probably my favorite pairing with Mahomes as these Jets’ linebackers and safeties give generous cushions in coverage on a weekly basis.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   Hill/Kelce
   Kelce/Hardman
   Kelce/Hill/Mims
   Kelce/Hill/Mims/Perine
   Etc. etc. etc… you know what to do
   
3. Jared Goff – It wouldn’t be a NFL DFS GPP article without mentioning a player that is going to be 0% owned. Jared Goff is that guy for me this week. On paper, the Miami defense looks strong, but they’ve played nobody. In the two games they faced a top-10 offense in passing efficiency, they have given up an average of 387.5 passing yards (Seattle and Buffalo… both games in Miami).
   
   The Rams come into this matchup ranked 9th in offensive pass efficiency… this is a low-key recipe for a blow-up game as the Rams really need a victory with a guaranteed loss coming for either Seattle or San Francisco, and Arizona on a bye.
   
   I love what I’ve been seeing out of McVay and the rest of this Rams offense and I truly believe they’ll have no issues scoring 35+ points in this matchup.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   Kupp/Woods
   Kupp/Reynolds
   Kupp/Everett
   Kupp/Henderson
   Kupp/Henderson/Gesicki
   
   Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

1. Derrick Henry – He’s #1 on the AETY Model in terms of total rushing yards by a WIDE margin. Last time that happened, it was Week 6… which was the best DFS weekend of my life and likely Win Daily’s (screenshots galore). Henry is easily the top dog running back on this slate with a rushing projection over 110 yards and Vegas odds of (-250) to score. That all checks out as the Bengals’ rush defense is non-existent.
   
   The issue with Henry is that it’s hard as hell to fit him in if you’re heavily invested in that afternoon game. There’s a lot of condensed value on this slate and likely everyone in the field that uses Henry is going to use the same players for salary relief (Mims or Bourne). When playing Henry, find a way to get different this week.
   
2. Kareem Hunt – I was all in last week and was disappointed a bit but I’ll go right back to the well this week against the Raiders’ 29th ranked defense, in terms of DVOA. The weather will be a mess in Cleveland and the tight spread leads me to believe Hunt will be heavily utilized all game long.
   
3. Jonathan Taylor – Rookie running backs after the bye week… I still don’t trust Frank Reich to fully unleash Jonathan Taylor, but if there was ever a matchup to free Jon Taylor, it’s this week against Detroit’s run defense. Outside of the timeshare, the only other downside is that Indianapolis has not been that effective of late when rushing the football.
   
   The offensive line should be 100% healthy for the first time in over a month and that should lead to plenty of wide gaps for Taylor to bust through. If you’re looking to pivot off of Kareem Hunt chalk, Taylor would be my guy.
   
4. Darrell Henderson Jr. – Miami is dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams are top-5 on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool (and very efficient when running the football). This is an absolute smash spot for Henderson (if and only if McVay lets him loose). We know we’re going to see some Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Henderson earned a much more significant role in the offense over the past few weeks.
   
   I’d lock-button Henderson if he were priced down a bit more, but having said that, I’ll have still have ton of Henderson shares tomorrow as he’s likely to be ~5% owned while the field flocks to Gio Bernard at a similar price-point.
   
5. Le’Veon Bell – at $4,600 on DraftKings and a favorable running gamescript, Le’Veon Bell should absolutely put on a show when he’s on the field this Sunday. His touchdown odds throughout the week have plummeted (in favor of him scoring) and he has a solid rushing prop of 42 rushing yards.
   
   If he can get some work in the passing game and find a way into the end-zone (you have to think Andy Reid is going to give Bell every chance he can to score a touchdown against Adam Gase), Bell should walk backwards into 3x value on this low salary.
   
6. La’Mical Perine – It’s gross, but I’m in. The only way you can really attack this 2020 Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is via the run game. The Jets are a god-awful football team, so there’s nothing sexy about this play at all. But as everyone and their brother punts down to Denzel Mims, I want to pivot up to La’Mical Perine. The AETY Model has Perine projected for 60 rushing yards, which clearly is a bit much, but I’m going to trust it and ride the young running back at 1% ownership.
   
   Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Tevin Coleman

Wide Receivers

1. DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – Again, just getting a ton of exposure to this afternoon game with the highest expected total on the slate. It’s been very difficult to run on this 49ers’ defense and Seattle has been incredibly efficient on offense by moving the ball through the air. They’re going to pass and pass a lot. I give a slight edge to Metcalf this week, but I’m very interested in both in Week 8.
   
2. Kenny Golladay – I’m done with stacking the Detroit Lions, but I’ll always play a sub $7K Kenny Golladay in a plus matchup against Rock Ya Sin and a washed-up Xavier Rhodes.
   
3. Tyler Boyd – On Monday, I was all-in on Bengals’ stacks featured by Tyler Boyd and his cakewalk matchup against Titans’ rookie slot cornerback, Chris Jackson, but the weather got me off this game a bit. I will still have a ton of Boyd on Sunday as I don’t think the weather really impacts the routes that Boyd runs on a weekly basis.
   
   In addition, this Bengals’ offensive line (which was terrible to begin with) is likely out three starters. Burrow is going to have to get rid of the ball quick and I really only see that having a positive impact on Tyler Boyd and Gio Bernard.
   
4. Cooper Kupp – Kupp is my favorite WR on the slate this weekend. Nik Needham is arguably the worst cover corner in the NFL and Sean McVay sure as hell knows that. I love Jared Goff this weekend and I adore pairing him up with Cooper Kupp. Slot wide receivers absolutely torch Miami on a weekly basis and they’ve yet to see one as skilled and more importantly, as heavy of a focus in their offense as Cooper Kupp.
   
5. TY Hilton – He’s $4,900 on DraftKings. This is simply one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He may be washed-up, but the air yards are there on a consistent basis and the matchup is one of the best he’s seen this season.
   
   Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce – See Mahomes’ write-up.
   
2. Mike Gesicki – With how much I love the Rams’ offense this week, I need to run it back with someone on the Dolphins. That someone is going to be Mike Gesicki. I’ve watched plenty of tape on this Rams’ linebacking core and they simply struggle with inside receivers and tight ends. Mike Gesicki is part slot receiver and part tight end.
   
   I’m a bit nervous to see how Tua utilizes Gesicki, but I’m diving head first into rostering Gesicki on the other side of my Rams’ stacks. If I’m not fully stacking the Rams, I’ll have a lot one mini stacks of either Henderson or Kupp with Gesicki on the other side.
   
3. Hunter Henry – He’s simply too cheap for the expected target share. It was a weird week for Henry last week (as two backup tight ends scored touchdowns), but I have no problem going back to Hunter Henry who’s projected for 5 catches for 53 yards. If he can get into the end-zone, he’s going to be a smash value on Sunday afternoon.
   
   Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett (if Higbee is out)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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